Cathay Pacific posts worst first-half loss in at least 20 years

[jetjockey696]

Cathay Pacific posts worst first-half loss in at least 20 years | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cathay-pacific-results-idUSKCN1AW183)

[Maxfli]

B-O-H-I-C-A

[Metro man]

Any sign that this was a one off ? Are future results likely to show improvement or more losses ?

The problems with HKG being an expensive place to be based, Chinese airlines being either better or cheaper alternatives for your main customer demographic and Middle East airlines taking your long haul connecting passengers seem to be adding up to a perfect storm.

[Maxfli]

Outlook similar...........

Cathay Pacific 1H losses deepen on competition, fuel costs | Airline Financials content from ATWOnline (http://m.atwonline.com/airline-financials/cathay-pacific-1h-losses-deepen-competition-fuel-costs?NL=ATW-04&Issue=ATW-04_20170816_ATW-04_244&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_4_b&utm_rid=CPEN1000000440243&utm_campaign=11326&utm_medium=email&elq2=b62db93f55904d95a9ab09d75e909117)

[Progress Wanchai]

[QUOTE=Metro man;9864227]Any sign that this was a one off ? Are future results likely to show improvement or more losses ?


3.2 billion fuel hedge loss.
4.0 billion cash hedge loss.
0.5 billion cartel fine.

So no, not one off losses.




Incompetence is perpetual at hello kitty city.

[27/09]

No doubt they'll bounce back just like QF did after it posted a significant lose a couple of years ago.

BOHICA, good chance I'd say. Never let a disaster go to waste.

[Gnadenburg]

Not much I can do about it except save a little more of my wage as a contingency.

All other initiatives have been taken away from me by fiddling, bumbling managers who'd best be sent off to a LCC on an exchange program to open their minds !

[OK4Wire]

So no, not one off losses

On the contrary, PW. They seem to be one-off losses that keep recurring!

[Frogman1484]

Even if the whole airline worked for free, we would still lose money ...its all about the fuel hedge and fines!

[Pucka]

Sadly, its the CX model that worked 15 years ago, that has never synthesised into anything that the slowly emerging 'cleaner "LCC models now work around, that is the real reason for this mess. The appalling necrosis in management and the absolute disregard to listen to its top echelon employees..the promotion of imbecilic head nodders and the emergence of a stupendous and ridiculous HR dept..no..not peoples..HR..that has shaped this airline into the loss making fiasco that it now is. And the theatre of espousing how we are all important to the success of the company..what utter BS… do they really think we believe this rhetoric???..not even the contract 2 year renewable engineers believe this rubbish..and yes..send some of these so called "managers"..most of whom couldn't manage anything out of a paper bag..send them to a LCC as suggested..but sadly..I don't think even Tiger Air would accept a CV with a CX endorsement now..

[DUSKY DOG]

Time to activate that back-up plan

[Freehills]

The toxic fuel hedges run out end 2018, so 2019 CX will see a 'rebound' and the 3 year transformation plan can be declared a huge success

[Oasis]

The toxic fuel hedges run out end 2018, so 2019 CX will see a 'rebound' and the 3 year transformation plan can be declared a huge success

Oh great, then they can all congratulate each other and hand out big bonuses again.

What great leadership...

[Jnr380]

Was I the only one that watched Corrine Png mention a merger was likely sooner or later?

[Natca]

Well thats half the thing, at true LCC models they dont have managers. They have a ceo, a few planning type office staff, and front line employees.
Thats why they are cheap

Sadly, its the CX model that worked 15 years ago, that has never synthesised into anything that the slowly emerging 'cleaner "LCC models now work around, that is the real reason for this mess. The appalling necrosis in management and the absolute disregard to listen to its top echelon employees..the promotion of imbecilic head nodders and the emergence of a stupendous and ridiculous HR dept..no..not peoples..HR..that has shaped this airline into the loss making fiasco that it now is. And the theatre of espousing how we are all important to the success of the company..what utter BS… do they really think we believe this rhetoric???..not even the contract 2 year renewable engineers believe this rubbish..and yes..send some of these so called "managers"..most of whom couldn't manage anything out of a paper bag..send them to a LCC as suggested..but sadly..I don't think even Tiger Air would accept a CV with a CX endorsement now..

[Arfur Dent]

I'm not a shareholder in CPA but if I was, I'd be wanting to know who exactly is responsible for this debacle and I'd want them out of the Company PDQ!

[Freehills]

Back then (15 years ago) cathay targetted debt level of 40%, to be prudent and make sure could survive issues (SARS, financial crises etc)

Now at over 100%. Winning!

[Freehills]

Stolen from a customer site:

A few numbers from recent results:

Shareholder Funds at June 30 $55,365M

Fuel Gambling Losses 2017 YTD $3,237M
2016 $8,656M
2015 $8,474M
2014 $ 911M

TOTAL $21,078M About USD2.7B, B not M

So the total gambling losses represent 38% of current shareholder funds. WOW!

2017 YTD Inflight Services and Expenses $2,417M

And this year they are only willing to spend 75% of their gambling losses taking care of all of us during our flights. No wonder EVERYTHING is being pared back.

And it will continue. They have committed to buy over 50% of their current fuel purchase volumes for the balance of 2017 for Brent at $90/Bbl, and over 45% of estimated 2018 volumes at $80/Bbl.

If this was not approved by the Directors, they were derelict in their duties. Either way HEADS SHOULD ROLL. And that should start at the very top. Instead they want to recover the losses from passengers and staff. Swire must be ruled by senility.

[casual.t]

Are we all going to believe that Cx hedged fuel at a price that would bring down the company with major losses?

[Farman Biplane]

I am sure the forensic accountant that we are paying big dollars for will sort it all out for us!

[joblow]

Freehills , the only explanation that I can come up with for this fuel hedging debacle and the reason that heads haven't rolled .
It would appear that the board is seemingly happy with the status quo , in that somehow they now own "the stick it to you fuel company " who just happens to be on the other side of the fuel hedging and are buying fuel on the open spot market and selling to Cx at inflated prices . Otherwise why would you keep employees on who are clearly incompetent it just doesn't make any sense

[jetjockey696]

Ok lets try this way.... LOL

Discounted flights and hotel packages among Cathay Pacific?s bid to cater to ?price-sensitive travellers? | South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2107255/discounted-flights-and-hotel-packages-among-cathay-pacifics)

[gulliBell]

No doubt they'll bounce back just like QF did after it posted a significant lose a couple of years ago.


QF bounced back mostly due to the price of fuel, not through the magic of management. CX doesn't have that luxury to bounce along with due to the disastrous fuel hedge. For me, as a long term CX shareholder who paid well over $20/share, the pain is going to continue for a long time. That is, if they can survive the long term.

I also used to be a CX Marco Polo Club frequent flying passenger. But when they try to charge $6,000 AUD for a one-way economy ticket DXB>HKG>PER they don't get me as a fare paying passenger any more. They are their own worst enemy.

[GTC58]

The next headline in the SCMP will be that CX has to furlough Pilots and Cabin crew for the first time in their existence. I am pretty sure they are already looking at the cost savings downgrading FO's to SO's. According to MH, SO's will be getting a P1 rating as upgrade times to JFO will be past the 5 year expiry of the P2X rating and of course for safety reasons on 2 SO operations.

[YeahNahYeah]

Can someone smarter than me figure out what this means

Swire 2015 annual report
Derivative instruments and hedge accounting
– Cathay Pacific enters into a high volume of derivative financial instrument contracts to manage its exposure to fuel price risk, foreign currency risk and interest rate risk. These contracts gave rise to derivative financial assets of HK$2,778 million and liabilities of HK$21,871 million as at 31st December 2015. These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature. The high volume of contracts necessitates a sophisticated system to record and track each contract and calculate the related valuations at each financial reporting date. The valuation of hedging instruments and consideration of hedge effectiveness can involve a significant degree of both complexity and management judgement and are subject to an inherent risk of error.

Swire 2016 annual report:
Hedge accounting
– Cathay Pacific uses derivative financial instrument contracts to manage its exposure to fuel price risk, foreign currency risk and interest rate risk. These contracts gave rise to derivative financial assets of HK$2,176 million and liabilities of HK$9,849 million as at 31st December 2016. These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature. The large number of contracts necessitates a sophisticated system to record and track each contract and calculate the related valuations at each financial reporting date. The valuation of hedging instruments and consideration of hedge effectiveness can involve a significant degree of both complexity and management judgement and are subject to an inherent risk of error.

CPA 2017 interim report:
HKFRS 9 “Financial Instruments” is relevant to the Group and becomes effective for accounting periods beginning on or after 1st January 2018. HKFRS 9 contains three principal classification categories for financial assets: measured at (a) amortised cost, (b) fair value through profit or loss and c) fair value through other comprehensive income. If an equity security is designated as fair value through other comprehensive income, then only dividend income on that security will be recognised in profit or loss. Gains, losses and impairments on that security will be recognised in other comprehensive income without recycling. With respect to the Group’s financial assets currently classified as “available-for-sale”, these are investments in equity securities which the Group may classify as either fair value through profit or loss or irrevocably elect to designate as fair value through other comprehensive income (without recycling) on transition to HKFRS 9. The Group has not yet decided whether it will irrevocably designate these investments as fair value through other comprehensive income or classify them as fair value through profit or loss. Either classification would give rise to a change in accounting policy as the current accounting policy for available-for-sale equity investments is to recognise fair value changes in other comprehensive income until disposal or impairment, when gains or losses are recycled to profit or loss in accordance with the Group’s accounting policy. This change in policy will have no impact on the Group’s net assets and total comprehensive income but will impact on reported performance amounts such as profit and earnings per share. The Group has yet to assess the full impact of the new standard.

[Arfur Dent]

It means "Financial Smoke and Mirrors" my friend and they must be seen as numpties whose "mates" in the Hong Kong Club have difficulty keeping a straight face. "Don't mention the fuel hedging chaps!!"
Tee Hee…………..

[Strewth]

Lots of bets on future prices of stuff to minimise exposure to market changes, plus, laying off a few side bets to cover their arses on those bets, gambling on the future prices of fuel, currency exchange and interest rates. Bets split into ones they're winning and losing, these bets all have time frames, future winnings or losses, classed as an asset but the bets ain't over. 31st December 2015 not looking good, up 2.8B on some, down 21.9B on others.

Ain't bull****n what they reckon their bets worth right now, won't count their shekels till it's over though. Deferred equity means they'll promise something worth something till then, see how they're travelling. Running so many bets they got a computer, but takes ages to work out and wouldn't bet their lives on the numbers. Last bits an excuse, dunno what's going on, guessin the score, ain't their fault they're losers. Covers the Swire 2015/16 paragraphs, last bit CPA 2017 is a change in HK accounting practices, hypothetical anyways refers to dividends. Bull**** mostly ain't complicated, terms so you won't ask what you've asked, that ain't thick; gotta work out what business they're in.

[BlunderBus]

Ok so who wants to bet every cent you'll earn over the next five years where the price of fuel.. THE most volatile commodity...will be in 2023? With no insurance to cover the downside risk...
No takers? Didn't think so!!!

[YeahNahYeah]

last bit CPA 2017 is a change in HK accounting practices, hypothetical anyways refers to dividends. Bull**** mostly ain't complicated, terms so you won't ask what you asked, that ain't thick; gotta work out what business their in.

Do fuel and other derivatives pay dividends?

"These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature."

and

"If an equity security is designated as fair value through other comprehensive income, then only dividend income on that security will be recognised in profit or loss. Gains, losses and impairments on that security will be recognised in other comprehensive income without recycling. "

What exactly is ?other comprehensive income?? - IFRS (http://pwc.blogs.com/ifrs/2009/09/what-exactly-is-other-comprehensive-income.html)

"Some of these items (such as foreign currency translation adjustments and changes in the fair value of available-for-sale financial assets) are recognised in OCI but are then recognised again in earnings when the underlying item (that is, the foreign subsidiary or available-for-sale financial asset) is sold or realised. In other cases (such as actuarial gains and losses and revaluations of property, plant and equipment) there is no recycling."

so they were counting them twice, and now they likely can't?? hah

[positionalpor]

Published on: Monday, August, 14, 2017, 09:05 AM
By: Bryan Porter Source :OpenJaw
The coming decade will herald in a tectonic shift in the mechanics of airline distribution, breaking the shackles of outmoded inventory and reservation management and embracing new retailing technologies acting in service of the consumer throughout the journey and ultimately her lifetime.

Over the next two to five years, we’ll continue to see a gradual erosion of the dominance of the GDSes, as more airlines embrace the IATA New Distribution Capability (NDC) standard, with favourable incentives for those agents embracing it, or punitive fees for those choosing not to.

As these standards develop and introduce new sales flexibility enabling airlines to own a greater share of the customer journey, innovation will be driven from outside of the airline itself, as a new start-up ecosystem marries these distribution protocols to rich media and vastly improves user experiences.

The increasingly indistinguishable OTA and Metasearch landscape faces disruption through the advent of standardised distribution and the potential emergence of marketplace platforms matching buyers with sellers and mirroring Amazon’s business model of infrastructure as a service.

During this period of proliferation, Google will be the biggest benefactor as GDS distribution fees become dwarfed by top-of-funnel search acquisition costs.

Direct distribution through Airline.com will continue to grow but for legacy carriers it will remain responsible for a minority share of bookings.

In meeting customer demand for broader choice, expect co-opetition as competing carriers offer each other’s inventory to showcase a broader choice to the savvy shopper.

With more than a billion active daily users across WhatsApp, WeChat and Facebook Messenger, chatbots will evolve beyond their ability to answer FAQs with full ‘conversational commerce’ emerging as the third pillar of e-commerce, alongside web and mobile. Amazon Echo, Google Home and similar devices combine this natural language processing AI interface with voice recognition, creating a fully interactive verbal shopping experience.

These developments will, in turn, place increasing pressure on airlines to innovate and differentiate their offerings - from simple tiered fare structures and a-la-carte ancillary offers bundled into branded fares - to more unique, tailored offers personalised for the individual traveller.

Traditional pricing methods through fare filing - by contract, O&D, market and RBD - will steadily give way to personalisation through artificial intelligence and machine learning, which will learn from the online and transactional behaviour of millions of people, mine data, and meet the needs of each traveller at every moment through all channels, signalling a new era of revenue management.

As the next iterations of blockchain and related technologies evolve to accommodate offers and transactions at scale, distributed ledger technologies will underpin billing and settlement, removing the costly process of accreditation for participation in a BSP.

The PSS will evolve into a full retailing platform for multi-channel distribution, with data ingestion, modelling and processing capabilities and a rules engine capable of structuring and yielding product per channel, per request.

A decade from now we’ll see the global population surpass 8bn people. The percentage of the population deemed “middle class” will rise from 30% to over 50%.

Revenue passenger miles (the benchmark for measuring aviation growth - one revenue passenger traveling one mile) are forecast to grow by 30% by 2027, and the number of aircraft in operation is likely to grow by the same factor.

This growing passenger base will become increasingly geographically diverse, driven by the emergence of second and third tier cities becoming ‘aviation mega-cities’.

Although the bulk of these gains will be made in the Asia-Pacific Region, the long-term growth outlook for global aviation remains positive.

While oil prices remain high, aircraft will become increasingly efficient, with narrow-body aircraft flying further, becoming cheaper and cementing the now established business model of long-haul low-cost carriers.

This trend will drive down the cost of long-haul travel, but low-cost business models will drive commoditisation, increasing the need for airlines to differentiate through customer service and personalised offers.

This will in turn put pressure on OTAs, which typically sell airfares as a commodity, with price the only point of differentiation. Tailored offers through prescriptive analytics and propensity modelling will mean customers will find the most relevant offers through direct channels or marketplaces that are able to assist the airline with third party customer data.

As the OTAs decline, so airline category advertising revenues dwindle for Google. With the emergence of marketplace solutions for travel, the balance will tip and intermediation will become more lucrative for Google than advertising.

During this period, Airlines will have to become sophisticated retailers, able to garner higher commissions from ancillary sales than margins from fares. It is likely that in certain bundles the fare will be marketed for ‘free’ as a loss leader for a bigger share of the travel wallet.

Spurred by the airline industry, hotel, car rental, ferry and other ground or transport providers will adopt similar standards for open distribution, bypassing aggregators.

The ultimate benefactor from these changes will be an empowered traveller, who will have more choice, variety, relevance and tailored pricing than ever before.

© OpenJaw Technologies Ltd, 2017. All Rights Reserved.

[Arfur Dent]

Strewth
Your spelling of the word "Their" or "They're" makes you look a bit thick. Don't forget - the Swire Gods are mostly ex-Oxford University so one thing they're not is thick ( see what I did there.) Make your points using English properly or just keep them to yourself if you can't string a sentence together.

[Shep69]

Has anybody -- ANYBODY -- looked into the specific details of who is making money off of these huge 'losses' ? Where the money is going and who are the specific beneficiaries of the cash ?

I'd be REALLY interested in knowing how the money is moving around here. And what CXs actual holdings are and position is.

These aren't stupid people and I have some difficulty believing they would continue to make huge blunders in an area of specialty they've been trained. To me it might be akin to having Steve Fossett continuing to land gear up and collect the insurance on the airplanes he had scraped up. Not sure in that hypothetical case if it is a string of mistakes or a deliberate act.

I have no personal idea of whether this is a huge cock up or a deliberate transference of capital. It would be nice to know.

[GTC58]

If you want to believe the analysts and business publications CX has now the most leveraged balance sheet of any major airline in the world. More debt = being less competitive as the debt has to be serviced with interest payments which CX's competitors do not have or have on a much smaller scale. Cash flow might be a problem in the future without outside cash injections.

Everyone who thinks this is a Swire plot and Cathay is doing fine should get their head checked. Cathay has lost so much cash in the recent years that it will take over a decade in profits earning these losses back and bringing balance sheet debt to a normal level.

I believe CX will be a much smaller airline in the coming years, shrinking airplane by airplane or as some analysts believe will be experiencing a take-over from mainland China. Might it be Air China or someone else, as analysts find it very suspect that a mainland Chinese billionaire is suddenly buying every available CX share on the stock exchange. As soon as Air China and the Billionaire have the majority of shares or enough votes with convincing the other minority shareholders to vote in their favour it will be bye bye Swire.

[Average Fool]

Sadly, either scenario is plausible.

Massive losses because of pure incompetence.

Massive "losses" because of corrupt management.

Neither would surprise anyone.

[Shep69]

If you want to believe the analysts and business publications CX has now the most leveraged balance sheet of any major airline in the world. More debt = being less competitive as the debt has to be serviced with interest payments which CX's competitors do not have or have on a much smaller scale. Cash flow might be a problem in the future without outside cash injections.

Everyone who thinks this is a Swire plot and Cathay is doing fine should get their head checked. Cathay has lost so much cash in the recent years that it will take over a decade in profits earning these losses back and bringing balance sheet debt to a normal level.

I believe CX will be a much smaller airline in the coming years, shrinking airplane by airplane or as some analysts believe will be experiencing a take-over from mainland China. Might it be Air China or someone else, as analysts find it very suspect that a mainland Chinese billionaire is suddenly buying every available CX share on the stock exchange. As soon as Air China and the Billionaire have the majority of shares or enough votes with convincing the other minority shareholders to vote in their favour it will be bye bye Swire.

In this case shrinking the airline will just make the problem worse -- due to our large fixed cost structure and leveraged position. Unless the debt would go with it which I don't see happening.

[Trafalgar]

The 'end game' for this airline has been inexorably approaching for some time now. I felt the turning point was when the new cargo building opened, just as the market for freight collapsed. Combine that with the new 'branding' (how many millions to end up with aircraft that barely look any different than they did before), a focus on 'sloganeering' (Time to Win, etc...:rolleyes:) and you are left with a distinct impression that the end is drawing near. I feel pity for those of my colleagues who have committed their careers and their families futures to this company. I don't think it is going to end well.

[GTC58]

Well, if you want to believe some of the analyst research papers they are predicting a reduction to a fleet of 90-100 aircraft might bring CX back to profitability and the right size of an airline for the marketshare CX will retain in the future. The only problem, this would result in a reduction of nearly 1/3 of all pilot and cabin crew positions.

[Trafalgar]

The glory days of CX ended over a decade ago. The perceived 'brilliance' of the CX/Swire management has been uncovered to reveal the pathetic truth: it was only the monopoly situation they enjoyed in HK that allowed them to be successful. Once that was stripped away, it was apparent that the 'king had no clothes'. HK airlines, and a myriad of other low cost carriers, and overseas majors with better products and marketing, will undoubtedly reduce CX to a niche player, with a long ago tarnished reputation. The airline, as we once knew her, is done. For the individual pilot, there are better careers to be had elsewhere, certainly so when you consider raising your family in an expensive, polluted, crowded and increasingly 'chinese' city. The writing is writ large on the wall....it will be interesting to see how many of us 'read' that writing and act accordingly.

[kenfoggo]

With regard to pilots jumping ship . Even though the inevitable has been written large on the wall for some considerable time pilots have a huge inertia to leaving before the actual collapse of their employers. Pilots are reluctant to change employers due to the seniority based system of employment which will see them going to the bottom of their next employers seniority list. Their reluctance to leave is not a reflection of loyalty to their employer , who constantly holds them in contempt and continually erodes their conditions of service, but rather pilots hate change and the perceived uncertainty of a new job elsewhere. But the pilot community is increasingly becoming aware that there are airlines out there who want their licence and their experience and many pilots are now interviewing alternative prospective employers. The exodus is a trickle at the moment but as the pilot shortage begins to bite, especially in Asia which is seen as the world's major growth market, then that trickle must surely increase.

[Pucka]

When the dominant force of the brand is HR..and a fleet manager has to explain that a front line worker includes "you" the pilot… and a removal of a clip board represents a key move in FOP savings, irrespective of the square wheel EFB…and the product remains so incredibly flawed after the Time to spin campaign has become ..Old copy..that even our so called loyal pax are departing for other "brands"…the whole situation stacks up to a worrying pile of cards...

[Trafalgar]

I never thought I would see the day that CX resembled the likes of Pan Am, TWA BCAL etc..... Well, here we are. Sad. (and btw, is it just me, or do many of you look forward to the Friday Flyer to see what inanities AT can come up with each week...? It's like standing on the same street corner each week knowing there is a car crash about to happen)

[cxorcist]

Well, this is depressing. Thanks guys! Guess it wouldn't bum me out if I didn't believe it's true. Sadly, it probably is. Are these the same reasons the British Empire came to ruin as well? Bad management, arrogance, ignorance, and stupidity? One ponders...

[Captain Dart]

Ansett introduced sloganeering just before its downfall. The buzzword that front line staff had to use to customers was 'Absolutely'.

The airline shut down a few months after that. And it had not been constrained by a shambolic single hub. But its penultimate CEO was ex-CX.

[Pucka]

Traf.. yes.. sadly as an old git..I do look forward in a strange way to reading the friday fire lighter…and equally sad..I get a buzz to read the mentored, steered drivel from the ADFO and AT's plastic propositions..and yes.. I can recall the Bcal days..and the way their arrogance shone through a neophyte HR dept.. in the best way they could couch to the troops that.."all was well'..but ultimately, the saddest of all in this theatre of industrial comedy, where the principle actors were appointed, not by merit but purely by circumstance…that they believe their methods are sound and the train remains on track..and NO amount of disclosure, discourse , forum reality will detract their course.. and yes Traf..waiting for the train crash.. front seats if you will….

[cxorcist]

Are we all going to believe that Cx hedged fuel at a price that would bring down the company with major losses?

How would you describe ~ $1B US per year for several years of fuel hedging losses? Not many airlines can survive that kind of damage to the balance sheet. Maybe CX can, maybe not. Time will tell...

[Shep69]

Traf.. yes.. sadly as an old git..I do look forward in a strange way to reading the friday fire lighter…and equally sad..I get a buzz to read the mentored, steered drivel from the ADFO and AT's plastic propositions..and yes.. I can recall the Bcal days..and the way their arrogance shone through a neophyte HR dept.. in the best way they could couch to the troops that.."all was well'..but ultimately, the saddest of all in this theatre of industrial comedy, where the principle actors were appointed, not by merit but purely by circumstance…that they believe their methods are sound and the train remains on track..and NO amount of disclosure, discourse , forum reality will detract their course.. and yes Traf..waiting for the train crash.. front seats if you will….

The key to surviving a train wreck is:

1. Be willing to jump.

2. Be ready to jump.

3. Jump at the right time.

You can figure out if you want to be Sam Webb or Casey Jones.

Casey Jones DID get a nice plaque and a cool song written about him (as well as a public commendation by ICRR and some heroism for supposedly having his hand on the whistle and brake at the time of the collision possibly mitigating passenger injuries on the other train; then again the legend may be embellished as legends sometimes are--and if he'd not been going so fast to begin with he might not have found himself in the situation he got into. The ICRR accident report though would dump liability onto Casey for supposedly ignoring a flagman warning which may not have actually happened. Webb would assert until his death that no flagman was visible and no flares were apparent or fired).

Sam Webb survived with a broken shoulder and lived until the ripe old age of 83.

[Freehills]

Well, this is depressing. Thanks guys! Guess it wouldn't bum me out if I didn't believe it's true. Sadly, it probably is. Are these the same reasons the British Empire came to ruin as well? Bad management, arrogance, ignorance, and stupidity? One ponders...

To be fair, the British Empire didn't come to ruin for any of those reasons. Canada/ Australia/ New Zealand/ India/ Malaya etc were all given 'home rule'/ independence when the local populations asked for it/ were judged able to self rule - I would say the opposite of arrogance & stupidity. The part of the Empire where bad management & stupidity did have a part to play was Ireland, where, despite the democratic will of the people, Home Rule wasn't granted, leading to the 1916 uprising. And there, the British Empire made the decision to withdraw (1919-1921), rather than impose rule by force.

WW2 definitely sped things up - ISTR that the timeline set for Indian independence in the 1920's was 1955 or so (it was thought it would take one generation to fully localise the civil service)

Overall, the Empire didn't come to ruin, it came to the end of it's natural life, and for the most part, it's ending was well managed. Arrogance & stupidity would have been to have done what the French did in North Africa & Vietnam, and try and keep the Empire going regardless of circumstances, resulting in massive bloodshed for all.

[jetjockey696]

Cathay Pacific stays the course despite huge first-half loss"]Cathay Pacific stays the course despite huge first-half loss

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Cathay-Pacific-stays-the-course-despite-huge-first-half-loss?utm_source=paid.outbrain.com&utm_campaign=BA%20HK&utm_medium=referral

[Trafalgar]

"Damn the iceberg....full speed ahead"....!! You. can't. make. this. up. (love the muppet gallery photo: an Englishman, a "Chinaman", and a Chinaman)

[Trafalgar]

It seems they have forgotten the definition of insanity...

[Oasis]

I wonder how this debacle holds up against our mixup with SARS back in the day, where we were told by Turnbull we had only a few more months of cash left to run the business.
How much money did we lose that time Hong Kong was basically shut down compared with our night at the roulette table?

[Fool Sufferer]

Qantas delivers second-highest profit ever (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-delivers-secondhighest-profit-ever-20170824-gy3o47.html)

How rapidly circumstances change in this industry in just a few short years.

QF now going from strength to strength, whilst sadly CX spirals into an unrecoverable and terminal decline.

[Avius]

This may put things a little in perspective:

Swire Pacific's China Coca-Cola business offsets Cathay loss (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Swire-Pacific-s-China-Coca-Cola-business-offsets-Cathay-loss)