A380 loses MEL/DXB/LHR [Archive]

Tuck Mach

27th Apr 2017, 07:10

Mass exodus? Onto what?
A 767 sized aircraft with no night protections (night credit) flying all night, with 9 abreast in economy at 31' pitch...:E

So said, Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me

Applicable to pilots

SandyPalms

27th Apr 2017, 07:18

767 sized aircraft with no night protections (night credit) flying all night, with 9 abreast in economy at 31' pitch...

How do night credits protect you? And from what? The 787 has a much higher hourly rate, I'm not saying it's better or worse, it's not black and white.
What has 9 abreast, 31' in economy got to do with pilots?

ohfa

27th Apr 2017, 07:31

Captains on the A380 won't be able to bid back to the 787....
It was always Red Q's plan to put the A380 on Asian routes. The aircraft will fly where it should have years ago, flying a high volume of pax over 7 to 9 hours, saving the cost of carriage in fuel and crew savings thru minimal overtime payments.

Tuck Mach

27th Apr 2017, 07:36

Sandy

In a nutshell, my point a little obtuse, was that night credit protect the pilots from rosters of all night flying by loading the flying so that not as much could be fitted (flying wise) on a roster. There is a bunch of medical evidence about circadian disturbance and the effects of time zone changes and in addition flying at night.

The 787 contract may well have a higher hourly rate but with little overtime and no night credits I suspect the pilots will be very very tired, for not much upside, it depends on one's priority.

The point on the aircraft selection is that the route may be technically feasible, but the aircraft is an interesting selection. The seat pitch in Y class will be as Ben Sandlinands quite rightly picked up, the same as a 737 plus an inch..That is extremely tight for 18 hours..
From sources well placed, the EK alliance has little commercial upside for Qantas (Hence no financial disclosure of the benefit to QF shareholders) , is very restrictive and perhaps until the little fellow and Dorothy are shown the exit, the alliance remains something the ever diminishing Qantas network will have to contend with.

V-Jet

27th Apr 2017, 08:08

787 flying looks quite frankly vile. As in really, really unpleasant after probably just a few months. I know tech crew pay isn't relatively important, but you can almost see the saliva dripping from Joyce's repaired fangs as he salivates over removing all overtime and night credits from the operation. On paper, flying as an F/A or pilot looks cushy. The reality is so far from the appearance as to be not funny. I haven't heard how the cabin crew will deal with this, the rest etc, I'm sure it won't be in any way fun at ALL. Anyone operating that as even semi protected Technical Attendants will, after a very short time curse those mysterious crew that voted to kill night credits. You can't get your life back once you are seriously ill or dead - and there ARE illnesses that are worse than death.....

dragon man

27th Apr 2017, 08:59

What I don't particularly like is that the divisor can still be 180 hours only this time it's stick hours not credited hours. Add in Perth basing and time zone closer to Europe with fatigue management system I think you will find that 900'hours per annum will very quickly become 1000.

griffin one

27th Apr 2017, 09:20

No first class. 17hr sector.
Crew rest area ?????
31" pitch dvt special.
Only positive the big bus back to Asia,Maybe even HND or NRT once the RR-400 disappear

DirectAnywhere

27th Apr 2017, 09:59

cessnapete

27th Apr 2017, 10:11

Quite a tight sector fuel wise. Presumably Perth airport is Cat IIIC equipped to match the aircraft capability on arrival?

V-Jet

27th Apr 2017, 10:27

If the flying's that bad on the 787 (or 777-x) sick leave will go up accordingly. With no ADP there will be no incentive to go work if crew feel like they need a break, unlike now. If crew are starting to feel fatigued, I reckon they will be far more willing to fix it by judicious use of personal leave. What doctor won't provide a sick certificate for several days if a pilot says they're overtired? It's up to the individual to determine if they're fit to fly and the new contract provides little incentive, other than allowances, to actually go to work.

Very good advice on that note from a guy I flew with recently:

'Doc, I'm fxxked. Look at my roster. This is where my body is.. I can't safely go to XXX tomorrow'.

The problem is, guys go the extra mile and especially in your '20's you start to get used to it. Then you (well I did) see a 5 year retired but very well regarded 40 year management and exceptional training Captain (Ian T) in WSSS in transit on his way to LHR for a family wedding in tears because he got confused with gate numbers and missed his connecting (same flight number) flight. He was so apologetic and explained at great length to all of us he made a mistake because he had crossed the departure times off on his list from the bottom up instead of the top down when he landed.

And that is one story from the group of guys who first started flying SYD-LHR on jets. I know of numerous others of the same vintage with exactly the same problems. Their age? 60ish...

ruprecht

27th Apr 2017, 10:35

How about the A380 does MEL-SIN-LHR return and see how many punters fly MEL-PER-LHR 789

Yes, that would be interesting. Not going to happen though. You've now got under half the seats from MEL-LHR.

"It's a success, it's always full"

C441

27th Apr 2017, 10:58

Quite a tight sector fuel wise. Presumably Perth airport is Cat IIIC equipped to match the aircraft capability on arrival?
Given the arrival times Perth won't be as big an issue as arriving at 0510 in London with the statutory U.K. reserves plus a bit for holding at Lambourne. Get there an hour late after 0600 and that could multiply significantly for a sector that will be tight on a good day.

236 punters …….maybe not.

V-Jet

27th Apr 2017, 10:59

It's up to the individual to determine if they're fit to fly and the new contract provides little incentive, other than allowances, to actually go to work.

With the influence of HR of course. 'A person in your position should give some thought to the professionalism you are showing. I can see you have your promotional training coming up....'

HR is bad now. I have direct experience of it (in the past it would never have been, so I cannot accept it was Flt Ops) encouraging illegal operations. I can only surmise what might occur in the future.

I shouldn't go on about this, but I am confident enough to say that the very people HR are seeking out (compliant yes-men) are the very ones our predecessors worked very hard to keep out.

fearcampaign

27th Apr 2017, 11:14

There is zero chance of MEL/SIN/LHR or SYD/SIN/LHR. Joyce nuked that years ago.
Option 1 would hinder the "gamechanging" 787 MEL/PER/LHR route and option 2 would destroy the QF1 SYD/DXB/LHR.
Emirates must be happy as I can see many premium Melbourne pax ditching QF to London and switching to Emirates or one of the other ME3 or Cathay/Singair. Qantas believe they are right. The passengers will ultimately decide regardless of the spin doctors.
Mach Tuck Most pilots are too stupid to understand the pay loss with a higher hourly rate but losing all overtime and flying 33% more without the night credits. Most too spineless to ever go fatigued. Someone will always take the $$$ on an RDO and save the day anyway. The loss of overtime and night credits will still save QF more money than What they lose in Sick leave.
AIPAs proposed EA 787 flying program now looks like a highly inaccurate TAF.
So did they know all along?

Beer Baron

27th Apr 2017, 11:28

night credit protect the pilots from rosters of all night flying by loading the flying so that not as much could be fitted (flying wise) on a roster
The planning divisor on the for the 747 and A380 is 13% higher than the 787 planning divisor. The effect of losing night credits is about a 17% reduction in credit hours. So when you offset one against the other you won't be doing that much extra flying due to the night credit issue.

I think the suggestion that losing night credits will kill you, (or worse), is being a little alarmist.

Only just saw this:
Most pilots are too stupid to understand the pay loss with a higher hourly rate but losing all overtime and flying 33% more without the night credits
I am clearly one of those "stupid" pilots so can you explain how an extra 1 third of a credit hour that is paid only half the time can lead to flying 33% more?

V-Jet

27th Apr 2017, 11:36

The planning divisor on the for the 747 and A380 is 13% higher than the 787 planning divisor. The effect of losing night credits is about a 17% reduction in credit hours. So when you offset one against the other you won't be doing that much extra flying due to the night credit issue.

I think the suggestion that losing night credits will kill you, (or worse), is being a little alarmist.

Only just saw this:

I am clearly one of those "stupid" pilots so can you explain how an extra 1 third of a credit hour that is payed only half the time can lead to flying 33% more?

Planning divisors never change so you are correct, of course.

almostthere!

27th Apr 2017, 12:23

The effect of losing night credits is about a 17% reduction in credit hours.

Got an explanation for this figure of 17%? All long range 4 crew flying so far that's a 33% reduction.

that is paid only half the time can lead to flying 33% more?

That would be correct if Qantas flew schedules evenly over 24 hours but long haul at Qantas is predominantly flown at night based on local departure. Very few if not no flights departs at 8am local. Even the all daylight SYD JNB flight attracts night credits ATM.

Just Relaxin

27th Apr 2017, 13:44

For all the experts waxing lyrical about the effects of night credits on QF long haul flying you need to brush up on your facts. For example “...night credit protect the pilots from rosters of all night flying…” and ”…. A 767 sized aircraft with no night protections (night credit) flying all night…”.

On a current 10 day LHR pattern on the 380 the credits are 55 hours, night credits add precisely zero to this. Similarly on a 9 day pattern the credits are 50:30 where night credits add a total of 1:00 hour to the away credits of 49:30.
So all the rubbish about night credits saving everyone is just that, rubbish.

Further on the 380 with planning divisor of 175 and actual divisors 160 – 180 crew are flying on average 27 – 32 days a 56 day bid period.

On the 787 flying the announced schedules a LHR pattern will be 5 days and 35 stick hours. With both planning and actual divisors 145 – 175 this means that crew will work a maximum of 25 days a bid period and possibly as little as 21. Hardly a salt mine scenario.

*Lancer*

27th Apr 2017, 19:12

^^ what they said.

Stop listening to the pilot next to you (or on PPRUNE or Qrewroom) and actually read the contract.

Night credits? Overtime? Talk to your colleagues in former golden-career Emirates or Qatar about how their credit hours are calculated. Or any of the wonderfully high paying contract airlines we all laud, but very few actually work for.

Sure take advantage of the rort, but please don't try and justify it.

V-Jet

27th Apr 2017, 21:43

Whichever way I look at it, the result seems to be an extra trip and a half a roster. Of itself that doesnt seem like much and like Joyce, I am 100% confident crews will do it and repeatedly tell each other 'its not that bad. Actually, we quite like the life'. The constant jet lag will have an affect. Watch body weight, fitness etc compared to those that dont spend their lives in the wrong time zone. Then see the relatively ridiculously high numbers of ex QF crew with similar, but statistically highly unusual brain disorders at very early ages. Emirates like? Not quite, but that extra trip and a half every 6-8 weeks year in year out will make itself felt, I guarantee it. Night credits were important - certainly to me, and I never gave a flying fig about overtime. 99% of the time I felt like absolute crap after 16+ hours anyway and at 20 you just arent thinking straight. Doing that regularly (even assuming a decent crew rest) is going to be unpleasant.

And yes, I know people said the same when the 707 and SP came into service. No matter which way you cut it though, this is REGULAR tours 30-40% more than the SP. And if its so good for you, why dont the staff at QCA work 8am - 2am and every 3rd alternate day 3am - 7pm, maybe once a fortnight 6am - 8am the following day. And while I'm talking about that, surely its just as good to work those hours over importabt family and national events like Christmas and wedding anniversaries, year after year....

PS: You simply cannot plan for those times you simply cant sleep before call. Sometimes you can, usually you cant. Or I cant. Sometimes its helpful to be tired at the start so you can sleep on your rest. Sometimes it isnt. And thats the problem - everyone and every flight is different. The great Juju designed humans and most mammals to have regular restoritive sleep patterns. In the last 50 years airline management has decided that for operational crews, the Juju's 'rules' dont apply. I dont think the Juju will be taking that lying down forever....

Beer Baron

27th Apr 2017, 22:51

Got an explanation for this figure of 17%?
Well I simply took the 33% loading that applies to night flying and halved it, as it only applies to flying between 8pm and 8am, or half a day.

Yes, you are quite correct that it oversimplifies the situation as schedule will mean the hours are not split 50/50 day/night. However the split is certainly closer to 50/50 than 100% night flying, which is the only way you can equate a 33% flying increase.

Then add to that, as the replies above have pointed out, many trips credits are governed by minimum daily credit, the 787 will still get night credits for 2 and 3 crew ops and 787 divisors will be lower than the other fleets.
The loss of night credits on 4 crew sectors can not increase flying by 33% it will be a much smaller amount.

itsnotthatbloodyhard

27th Apr 2017, 23:07

On the 787 flying the announced schedules a LHR pattern will be 5 days and 35 stick hours.

I assume that's for Perth-based crew.
How does a LHR trip stack up if you're Melbourne-based, in terms of days away and credits?

SandyPalms

27th Apr 2017, 23:21

Keg

27th Apr 2017, 23:28

The assumption would be that East Coast based pilots won't go to LHR, but if they did you could add one day at the start, and at least 2 at the end as they will require 2 nights in Perth on the return. I believe this requirement is the motivation behind the Perth Base (as it also will extend Minimum Base Turnaround requirements). So it would be an 8 day trip presumably worth 44hrs.

30/7 problems would require a S/O PER- MEL on that last day. I reckon the MEL- PER- MEL will be two day trips (11:00 credit) crewed from a combination of both PER and MEL bases.

ruprecht

27th Apr 2017, 23:29

So how many years to a long haul FO spot in Sydney now?

20? :sad:

maggot

28th Apr 2017, 00:25

Well it's mostly still rin guys/gals getting back in the RHS but maybe 15 yrs.
The may alloc will go a bit more jnr i guess

knobbycobby

28th Apr 2017, 01:47

Beerbaron. You are.
787 is stick hour and A380/747/a330 is credit hours.
So your incorrect.

Keg

28th Apr 2017, 02:51

Someone double check my maths for me:

PER- LHR: 18:20 block. 12 night (based on 2000-0800 at point of departure). 24:20 credit for the tour of duty on the current system. 18:20 on the new system.

LHR- PER: 15:45 block. 9:15 night. 18:50 for the tour of duty on the old system. 15:45 on the new.

Pattern Credit (old): 43:10
Pattern Credit (new): 34:05

A difference of 22% between the credit hours under the old system.

Planning divisor for 787 is 14% less than other LH fleets so you'll work harder to get to divisor no doubt.

Pay rate difference between 787 and equivalent sized aeroplane in QF fleet- A330- is? (Don't have iPad on me so can't check).

Sure, no overtime unless you're running late.

MEL- LAX: 14:25 block. 8:50 night. Credit under old system is 17:22.
LAX- MEL: 16:35 block. 8:25 night. Credit under the old system is 19:23

Total credit old system: 36:45
Total credit new system: 31:00

A difference of 15.5% so presuming both groups of pilots flying MEL- LAX- MEL are pretty close to flying the exact same amount on that route- within 1.5%.

Obviously any schedule changes could change those numbers slightly.

Octane

28th Apr 2017, 03:15

SixDemonBag

28th Apr 2017, 03:27

I apologize if this is a naive question.
Is the A380 a suitable aircraft to fly Melb, Bris or Sydney to Perth return sectors economically? Would the demand be there to fill an A380 on these sectors?
In other words is it a viable use for these aircraft?

Thanks

Octane

It's just all ass about. You want feeders flying west to Perth. Not a 380. Plus if you think you were going to fill it with domestic pax...where is it going to park? Not on the domestic side.

East bound you only have a 78 coming in so far. No other feeders for now. Maybe more 78 services to FRA CDG ? Dunno.

Octane

28th Apr 2017, 04:31

Hadn't thought about the parking issue...:ugh:

Tuck Mach

28th Apr 2017, 05:07

The constant jet lag will have an affect. Watch body weight, fitness etc compared to those that dont spend their lives in the wrong time zone.

You bet it will V jet.

Literally freezing pilots out, and convincing them of their relative lack of self worth, allowed Joyce et al to throw 80 (odd) aircraft at JQ, whilst simultaneously shrinking QF fleet by the same amount. This ensured those pilots left at QF were facing reduced flying lines, RIN and lock-outs..

Is it any wonder pilots surrendered so much for 8 aircraft?

Analysing the route structure, aircraft, schedule and pricing does not fill one with confidence the route is sustainable. A loss leader maybe, but in surrendering so much of the existing network for the 'terminal' Qantas International in 2011, whilst Joyce fiddled in Asia there may no longer be sufficient demand in-elasticity for the Qantas 'product', particularly given the Y class seating configuration.

V-Jet

28th Apr 2017, 06:15

Totally agree. TM... Slight thread drift, but partly in response to above on the business case, I've had an interesting few months playing airlines and I think I've cracked where Joyce is going. In the last 5 months I've bought 11 full fare long haul sectors, First and Business. I am happy to share that the QF First product until you are on the aircraft (crews were fantastic) is woeful. It even starts with 'selected QF flights get limousine service' (read nothing to do with QF, but if EK force us to provide it for 'their' legs you have a taxi). I also would have thought with a full fare 1st ticket you would have a designated 'assistance' line with all the bells and whistles. No - I actually had to fight the booking number to prove I had even bought the ticket ('sorry Sir, we have rechecked our records and you are indeed correct'..) and only then after being on hold for up to 45 minutes on 3 seperate occasions and being sold everything from accomodation, car hire, restaurants, tours right down to bottles of wine. It was a joke and VERY reminiscent of staff travel. No Frequent Flyer number = second class citizen - I have one but I was NOT going to provide it from memory when had a booking reference number and I'd just spent $14k on a damn ticket! With the Business tickets (2 different airlines) I booked directly and not through QF. One QF Partner and one not. Tix booked through the airline directly are slightly cheaper ($3-500ea) than through QF. Now, here's the thing; despite being a partner airline you don't get (or none of mine did) access to QF lounges unless you have a QF ticket... Then it dawned on me! It's long been a criticism that Qf isn't interested in aircraft and from what I can see the only thing QF has been really good at is Lounges. Thats the hook to get you in. Thats how they are forcing traffic through the QF.com website. It's a data mining and FF business, an airline a very late second/fifth with the Lounges as the 'bait'. Particularly with the 1st ticket the bumf that was 'suggested' as things to do to earn QF FF points at the destination was almost offensive. Sorry to drift like this, a bit of a rant, and a 'raw' hypothesis, but it was like a light bulb going off in my head. That's where they see the profit, we were right, it's not the metal at all, that's just incidental. They are measuring the business in column inches of advertising and FF revenue - they probably hope the PER-LHR route works, but gee they got good press out of the announcement.

TM: Convincing pilots (and other great employees) of their relative lack of self worth is the thing that REALLY gets me. It's deliberate, it was calculated and has been done so obviously by Joyce. And we fell for it.... And we continue to fall for it. Make him fly his own (well the shareholders) jets for 18 hours at a time twice a week for 5 years and see how he feels....

Beer Baron

28th Apr 2017, 14:01

Beerbaron. You are.
787 is stick hour and A380/747/a330 is credit hours.
So your incorrect.

Care to explain that comment knobby? Have you read the contract? What do you think a credit hour is?
I'd suggest you read RM28.4 and RM29. The only difference between the 787 and the rest of the LH fleet in how a trip's credited hours are calculated is night credits. 787 get full night credits on 2 crew flights and gets 25% rather than 33% loading on 3 crew flights and nothing for 4 crew.

All types credited hours are based on stick hours or MDC, 787 included. Overtime uses duty hours but pattern credited hours do not.

So I'd suggest that "your [sic] incorrect."

knobbycobby

29th Apr 2017, 12:22

The 787 flying PER-LHR will get zero night credits. The trips are short enough that MDC will never be higher than stick hours.Thats why Qantas wanted a Perth base. The 787 isn't flying two or three pilot night flying so that's an irrelevant statement.
Both sectors include, 12 hours of local night to London and approximately 11.5 hours home.
That's approximately 7.85 hours each trip in night credits you lose.
Be around 32.5 stick or 40.3 credit hours with night credits.
If you fly planned stick hours of 155 with carry out that's around 190 credit hours your flying every roster.
So 155 STICK HOURS might seem like a lower number, however when you convert it to CREDIT HOURS it's closer to 190.
So your either Being disengenuous or you don't understand it.Dont feel bad, most pilots saw 155 and thought, wow it's a smaller number.
2/3 pilot comparisons and MDC are irrelevant points when looking at planned 787 flying.
As others have said, Without night credits your easily doing an extra trip per roster.
Still be a ok gig IMHO. The one benefit of losing all the overtime is there is no financial penalty to go sick if your tired or to "give it a go" if your not 100%. As someone mentioned above if they frown on fatigue then just go sick.
It would be reasonable to expect flying 190 credit hours per roster sickness will be higher anyway.

topend3

29th Apr 2017, 12:51

Makes me laugh how they call it "gamechanging" for an aircraft that every other carriers had in service for 5+ years and wasn't even designed for ultra long haul routes. Give this 5 years max till 777-X arrives then QF will quickly dump Perth and move on to non-stop routes from SYD and MEL.

Beer Baron

29th Apr 2017, 16:23

So your either Being disengenuous or you don't understand it
So you acknowledge that the only difference to the credited hours is the night credits, and given this is a discussion about the 787 replacing the A380 on MEL-LHR, how many night credits did they earn on this route on the A380? 7.85 hours?? Nope. Nowhere near that.
MDC is 49:30 and the pattern credited hours are 49:37. So these wonderful night credits delivered exactly 7 minutes credit over a 9 day pattern!

The 787 crew are going to be flying PER-MEL-PER for MDC so the exact same credited hours as the A380 but on a a higher rate than the A380.

Once again. The lack of night credits WILL NOT significantly increase the hours flown by crews each bid period.

CurtainTwitcher

29th Apr 2017, 22:48

Note that the B787 rate is Year 4 in the following B787 vs A330 comparison.
Source: LONG HAUL EBA 9 EXPLANATORY DOCUMENT. Check your inbox for an AIPA email on Thursday, 18 June 2015 containing a CLICK HERE link. Alternatively go to the downloads section for Longhaul on the AIPA website.

http://i.imgur.com/N7LLmKd.jpg

Tuck Mach

30th Apr 2017, 00:53

No wonder Elaine was so happy...crowing that a substantial saving had been made..

You only get one chance like that and Joyce grabbed it..

Great work CT, nothing like a little fact to change opinion...

More days worked for less money, most of it going to be flown at night..Winning (sarc)
Hope the literature on the damage that circadian rhythm disturbance does is mere hyperbole

I find it interesting that former colleagues in support of the 787 'deal' fail to concede that the 2 pilot and 3 pilot overtime triggers won't apply for any of the routes announced and accounting for the 8 aircraft so far....

Troo believer

30th Apr 2017, 01:41

The 787 deal was voted on and a substantial majority voted "yes". A small minority may take a loss in overtime but most pilots with less than twenty five years service are looking at the future after years of stagnation. Wait and see whom bids for and is awarded the current and future vacancies. It will speak volumes for how the vast majority view the offer for promotion and expansion. Yes that word expansion, lost for the last decade and now finally on the horizon again. The glass is half full and filling!

ruprecht

30th Apr 2017, 02:02

underfire

30th Apr 2017, 02:17

Emirates will provide an all-A380 service from Melbourne when it upgrades its third daily flight from the Australian city from a Boeing 777-300ER to an A380 next year.
The move will add 945 seats per week to the Australian city from March 25, 2018, representing a 10 percent increase in capacity, the airline said in a statement.
This means Emirates customers can enjoy even more A380 to A380 connections via its hub in Dubai to 18 points in the UK and Europe, it added.

Emirates says Melbourne to become all-A380 route - Transport - ArabianBusiness.com (http://www.arabianbusiness.com/emirates-says-melbourne-become-all-a380-route-672174.html)

CurtainTwitcher

30th Apr 2017, 02:22

In the interests of completeness, here are the other flying comparisons provided, sourced from the same document.

http://i.imgur.com/f8ENI32.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/Dwq0jKf.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/uWUhQp8.jpg

CurtainTwitcher

30th Apr 2017, 02:43

With all the above it is important to consider the flying the aircraft actually does. It is true, that an "apples with apples" is nearly impossible, given the range limitations of the A330, it was never going the sectors Qantas appears to want to do with the B787.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce yesterday told The West Australian flights from Perth to Berlin, Rome and Paris were the next nonstop routes on the airline’s radar.
Tickets on sale for first non-stop Perth to London flight (https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/london-nonstop-from-2270-ng-b88456569z)

Looking at the cost curves above, I can be persuaded that the company always wanted to do predominately ULH style flying with the 787. There will be some scraps of <14 TOD & this appears to have been the "sweetner" used to convince pilots it was a good deal.

In a nutshell, many probably considered doing current A330 style flying at a higher rate as a good deal, the reality is that there won't be much, it will be more like the B747/A380. That is a better comparison, scaled for the size of the aircraft.

Beer Baron

30th Apr 2017, 04:07

I think we can agree that if the 787 flys purely ULR routes then you'd work more hours. If it flew purely Asia/regional routes then you'd work less. If it does a mix then it seems to be line ball. So it comes down to what you expect the 787 flying mix to be.

Yes the initial routes (except PER-MEL) are ULR and some of the suggested future routes are too. (BNE-LAX-JFK is a hot favourite for aircraft 5 and 6 but that is an example of a route where night credits won't play into it as these patterns are determined by MDC, so 787 pilots would fly less hours). But the contract was negotiated for an aircraft that will likely be in the fleet for about 25 years. Over time it is almost certain to takeover the majority the Asian/regional flying currently flown by the A330. The oldest 330's must be approaching 15years old and we don't have any NEO's or 350's on order so it's fairly clear to see the 787 will end up flying those routes.

That is why I believe the contract will prove to be a good one with the long term most likely mix of flying being a split of ULR and Asia/regional flying. You can't just look at the announced flying for the first 4 aircraft when there is every chance we could end up with 50+

Tankengine

30th Apr 2017, 05:12

One thing to remember when comparing the tables that AIPA provided is they all compare current A330 year 12 rates to "current" B787 year four rates!
(Which nobody will be on for over four years;))

CurtainTwitcher

30th Apr 2017, 06:19

Correct Tankengine, which is why I highlighted the figure in the first image.
Every line pilot goes who goes to the B787 starts on year 1 regardless of years of company service. This is also for promotion, it is years of service in category.
As a comparison of 4th year pay:

Year 1 93%
Year 2 95%
Year 3 97.5%
Year 4 100%

Bottom line, this "Years in Category on Type" system effectively (as first inflicted on SH) results in a cumulative 3.7% reduction in earnings to get to 4th year compared to the years of service system.

Fatguyinalittlecoat

30th Apr 2017, 09:38

So What Though? All these "facts" are kinda irrelevant, yes? The EBA is done, dusted and and in effect. You blokes are right, its not as good as the A380, but can we move on please. The past is exactly that. If you like I'll give some applause before I go to bed tonight, will that suffice?

CurtainTwitcher

30th Apr 2017, 09:56

So What Though? All these "facts" are kinda irrelevant, yes?

NO

The facts may be *irrelevant* to you personally, but are absolutely crucial to those who have to decide if they want to fly it, this isn't a pissing contest with the 380. Rostering, style of flying & how many days long you are away are still a mystery given the aircraft hasn't yet been delivered, yet a decision to choose flying it closes soon.

This discussion is an exploration of possibilities about what may happen in the future to those who have to decide to stay where they are or choose to fly it. If you don't like the discussion because it isn't relevant to you, there are hundreds of other threads to read...

Fatguyinalittlecoat

30th Apr 2017, 10:23

Fair enough. It's extremely relevant to me. What now of my thoughts?

The point is, you know the rules. They are black and white in front of you, as you have posted on Pprune. You cant change them. That is democracy.
Your bid onto type is yours. The facts will not change. Go ahead and hate them. Fair enough. If you hate them enough, you won't bid.

morno

30th Apr 2017, 12:11

Does any other airline in the world have these unrealistic outdated night credit thingys that doesn't let an airline work its crews how they want?

One very easy solution guys, just don't elect to fly the 787.

morno

JPJP

30th Apr 2017, 19:25

Does any other airline in the world have these unrealistic outdated night credit thingys that doesn't let an airline work its crews how they want?

morno

Yes. I can think of three in the U.S. off the top of my head. Short haul and long haul. The credit exists to compensate crew for screwing up their circadian rhythm. As it should be in any good contract.

As an aside - I don't understand (from a consumers point of view) why Joyce believes that PER - LHR will be attractive to passengers from the East coast. Singapore Airlines has a 32/18 inch economy seat from both MEL and SYD. The total trip is around 47 hours block, with an easy connection in one of the worlds best airports (if you're stuck in an airport).

Apart from the opportunity to lisp the words "game changer" again, and the free advertising, I don't see the advantage.

maggot

30th Apr 2017, 21:01

Of course the 'game changer'line is PR rhetoric. Anything to not talk about them Y seats - which i reckon is going to be a big problem.

fearcampaign

1st May 2017, 23:16

Night credits or similar came about from a NASA study of the ill effects of night flying and circadian disrhythmia. As mentioned in a prior post most US carriers have this as do most British airlines in their FTLs.
Sickness rates and fatigue were much higher in crews that flew more at night, therefore a loading was put on night flying to acknowledge that it was more taxing to fly through the night than during the day.
It was an early stage FRMS. You don't get paid any more which is a popular misconception.
Modern research has proven that loss of sleep and in particular jetlag is even worse for the body than the original NASA data. In one research paper it's been proven to alter your genes. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jan/20/jeg-lag-disrupts-genes-study
The rates of cancer, stoke, heart attack and disease are exponentially higher.
Of course middle eastern carriers don't strictly abide by these principles. This seems to be the only argument and comparison people make. But Australia doesn't allow multiple wives, chop off people's hands for stealing and our CEO doesn't control Sydney Airport, CASA and Qantas similtaneously either. Last I checked Australia doesn't abide by Sharia law.
Won't stop pilots making a comparison in their own race to the bottom.
The 787 will fly at least one extra ULH pattern every roster till you retire.
Given most pilots from the Middle East constantly complain of exhaustion, is that a comparison pilots want to aspire too?

*Lancer*

1st May 2017, 23:48

Did NASA follow up on how much healthier pilots subsequently were after flying slightly less overall?

Tuck Mach

2nd May 2017, 07:52

Thank you fearcampaign I was going to post a link.

Desperate to do a deal after being frozen out whilst QF management wedged everyone with JQ, AIPA threw out a protection that really 'Advanced the Interests of the Membership and Profession'. As former colleagues readily remark, many still think night credits are for salary, but Qantas pilot forebears had the insight to insert something in the contract to protect pilot's health, particularly those pilots not yet exposed to the potential health consequences of repeated time zone changes.

BNEA320

3rd May 2017, 00:25

How about the A380 does MEL-SIN-LHR return and see how many punters fly MEL-PER-LHR 789
Guess if your not on the New 789 out of MEL it's Emirates for you.you're forgetting about the recession. Every airline would like to downsize their aircraft, but can't in most cases, which is why you're seeing $799 return fares to Europe right now. Yes there are only a few seats, but it's terrible marketing. Creates a new benchmark, which punters think is the new normal.

dragon man

3rd May 2017, 00:58

you're forgetting about the recession. Every airline would like to downsize their aircraft, but can't in most cases, which is why you're seeing $799 return fares to Europe right now. Yes there are only a few seats, but it's terrible marketing. Creates a new benchmark, which punters think is the new normal.

What I will watch with much interest is the sale of economy seats, how long will it take the punters to figure out that they are paying a premium on Qantas of say $800 in economy to go non stop with a 737 economy seat plus 1 inch extra pitch. I know what I'd do , SQ or Emerates one stop.

maggot

3rd May 2017, 01:23

What I will watch with much interest is the sale of economy seats, how long will it take the punters to figure out that they are paying a premium on Qantas of say $800 in economy to go non stop with a 737 economy seat plus 1 inch extra pitch. I know what I'd do , SQ or Emerates one stop.

Yep. And this concerns me as to the future of our company since we seem to be heading all in that way. Hmmm

More space needed!

Gamechanger

3rd May 2017, 01:43

According to latest intel.
Nearly all the 787 Command slots will be filled by very senior A/Q pilots off the 737 East Coast to the 787 in PER and the A330 in the East Coast. No PER 737 and few A330 PER CPTs even close.
A380 flying to change significantly doing more two pilot sectors from MEL/SYD to SIN and three pilot from MEL/SYD to HKG.
That will free up A330 hulls for more domestic flying and alleviate shortages there.
Massive vacancies on the 737 where nearly all the movement is coming off.

BNEA320

3rd May 2017, 01:53

Yep. And this concerns me as to the future of our company since we seem to be heading all in that way. Hmmm

More space needed!yes everyone is going cheap. Scoot were recently doing PER/ATH one way on a 787 for AUD$369 + about $50 for bag & meal/drinks & $419 for same ex OOL.

dragon man

3rd May 2017, 05:43

yes everyone is going cheap. Scoot were recently doing PER/ATH one way on a 787 for AUD$369 + about $50 for bag & meal/drinks & $419 for same ex OOL.

To much capacity. If there is a recession or another GFC it will be a blood bath.

B772

5th May 2017, 05:02

Air Canada are commencing a nonstop B787 service MEL-Vancouver on 03/12/17 which will provide a one stop from MEL to LHR and many other destinations. This could rain on Allan's parade, especially for anyone who has concerns about flying over the middle east.

Derfred

5th May 2017, 13:10

That is an interesting one to ponder.

As a punter, if I wanted to fly MEL-LHR 1-stop, and I wanted to go all the way in one go, it really wouldn't bother me where the fuelling stop was. Perth, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong etc - who cares? It's just an airport transit lounge.

But if I wanted to spend a couple of days enroute to break up the journey, then suddenly it does matter. If Vancouver was amongst the offerings, then that could very well be my No.1 pick. Even if it meant longer actual airborne hours.

Send me a 787 Vancouver-Brisbane and I will love you forever.

In fact, maybe I won't even fly to London annually any more. My London family can just meet me in Vancouver.

Of course, it won't have gone unnoticed by Air Canada that Qantas now fly seasonally direct Vancouver ex Sydney, and it seems to be going well enough that they may consider expanding that service as future jets arrive. So I'm sure it's not beyond their imagination that Vancouver could become a solid 787 destination for Qantas in the next few years. So there is a good chance that this is a strategic "get in the market first" play by Air Canada, to attempt to discourage Qantas launching a similar competing service down the track.

maggot

5th May 2017, 22:52

Like with a 747?

BNEA320

6th May 2017, 06:54

To much capacity. If there is a recession or another GFC it will be a blood bath.real estate market has tanked everywhere, unless you're silly enough to listen to the media, who make billions off real estate advertising every year. The recession is going to hit hard soon. The high cost airlines are really going to suffer, as they can't compete on price with LCC's & ULCC's.

Daylight Robbery

6th May 2017, 09:57

I thought the conventional wisdom was downturns/ recessions hurt low cost more. Presumably the low yielding model needs volume that good times supply

Tuck Mach

6th May 2017, 10:07

I thought the conventional wisdom was downturns/ recessions hurt low cost more. Presumably the low yielding model needs volume that good times supply

It is pertinent to consider the demand elasticity. Established airlines have a better ability to raise price without too much decline in demand. LCC are demand elastic (in a relative sense) therefore their 'product' is very susceptible to changes in price. They struggle to generate yield and so rely on volume. As such given they target price sensitive consumer, those consumers oftentimes decide at the margin( that is on price-who is cheapest?) and are affected by any change in circumstances (economically) undermines their disposable income and the LCC the model substantially.
Likely the operating margins are a bit better given the relative price of fuel, but LCC are finely balanced financially engineered entities, that are more about low wages for operating staff rather than anything new...Of course they also keep the factories open with their penchant for leased aircraft...

V-Jet

6th May 2017, 10:29

The Australian economy is now riding on the Eastern States property boom. If you earn $100kpa and your house is worth $400+ more in say 24 months, rates have declined, why wouldn't you refi, take out an extra $100k, have a great holiday, build a granny flat, a kitchen and an extra garage as well. With luck the granny flat might pay for it all....

I don't believe staff wages are that critical to the operation (within basic parameters of course - what I've seen Thai crews do for a company that prides itself on a great 'work/life' balance is sickening) but I agree it's very finely tuned. There will always be people with money and always backpackers. Backpackers are a sugar hit for the economy - cheap and fast. The idea is they will come back and spend real money 10 years hence. Regardless, once the music in the Au RE market (and possibly the 23yr non recessional economy) stops growing, the game will change massively, with luck there will be more Chinese investors gobbling up the assets or it will likely be quite nasty.

Fortunately Senior Management at Qf have inoculated themselves against such disasters thanks to our good work, so well done there! I'm sure they will be OK.

B772

10th May 2017, 00:38

Alan Joyce would not be happy seeing the Melbourne Age article today 10/05/17 "Australians can't rely on national carrier as Qantas' Dreamliner proves a nightmare"

BNEA320

10th May 2017, 02:40

It is pertinent to consider the demand elasticity. Established airlines have a better ability to raise price without too much decline in demand. LCC are demand elastic (in a relative sense) therefore their 'product' is very susceptible to changes in price. They struggle to generate yield and so rely on volume. As such given they target price sensitive consumer, those consumers oftentimes decide at the margin( that is on price-who is cheapest?) and are affected by any change in circumstances (economically) undermines their disposable income and the LCC the model substantially.
Likely the operating margins are a bit better given the relative price of fuel, but LCC are finely balanced financially engineered entities, that are more about low wages for operating staff rather than anything new...Of course they also keep the factories open with their penchant for leased aircraft...many people now switching from legacy to LCC's with worsening economy, especially those who pay their own fares.

eg. Instead of flying BNE/SIN on SQ, many now switching to Scoot OOL/SIN for a fraction of the cost. Also helps if you actually live on southside of BNE.

Similarly, with BNE/KUL which no one flies nonstop anymore since MH pulled out. Air Asia X flies nonstop OOL/KUL & now Malindo flies BNE/KUL direct via DPS in a new 738 or 739. Interestingly Malindo has less seats on their 738's than either QF or VA. They say they are a LCC, but with full service including meals, drinks & 30kgs of checked bags.

donpizmeov

10th May 2017, 20:38

And a better than even chance of making it without incident. You get what you pay for. Some people even willingly fly Jetstar. So I don't think the punters have high expectations anymore.

Sunfish

10th May 2017, 22:32

No one I know is going to be taking 17 hour direct flights anywhere if I have anything to do with it.

My best friend, seriously wealthy, can't stop himself from flying economy for his annual skiing trip to Aspen,, Vail, etc.

This time a few weeks after return, he came down with chest pains,weakness and shortness of breath.

Imaging at the Alfred shows he is a mass of blood clots, Lung, heart and right leg. He is now on clot dissolvers and is to be rerassessed in Six weeks. The problem? DVT. Probably exacerbated by time at altitude skiing ( your blood thickens up - more red cells). I then found out he had a smaller bout in the other leg after last year's trip and was wearing compression socks this time.

You cannot imagine what a bad patient he is; demanding to be fixed immediately! Wanting to telescope the reassessment time, etc. I've told him if he doesn't stop work, slow down and take it easy, he is going to be a very rich corpse.

Ive suggested next year its business or first class and short hops - Melbourne, Auckland, Hawaii, west coast, overnighting in each.

To put that another way, where I live - north eastern Victoria, almost everyone we know who is retired or semi retired goes overseas every winter to escape some of the cold. We want our comfort and are prepared to pay something extra for it. From my point of view, Qantas totally ignores our market segment

Its not that hard , but a seventeen hour flight in economy with one inch extra legroom might be OK for millennials but not for us old fellas. Who remembers the QF "Fading blue denim" seat covers and market promotion on the kangaroo route? What about a new promotion with free Zimmer frame storage?