Storm at Christmas

[Maddie]

Hi,

Just saw headline in one of the newspapers this morning ' Weather Bomb' to hit over Christmas.

Can anybody please tell me the forecasted flying conditions on Friday 23rd December. I am due to fly from Dublin to Chicago, leaving Dublin around 11.00am?

Many thanks,


Maddie

[safelife]

Accurate weather forecasts are possible for about 9 hours ahead, rough estimates for about three days. Past that it's anyone's guess.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

Almost impossible to be accurate that far ahead but the BBC weather page suggests strong winds and rain. Sorry.

[mary meagher]

Yes, and the jetstream over the Atlantic is forecast to be very very strong indeed, so that you will be flying upstream to go west, but coming back to the UK you will be back home in no time.

Be sure to take your longest long johns and jumpers to Chicago, that place will be icy cold with bitter winds off the lakes.

[a330jockey]

You'll be ok on the Dublin Chicago flight, Maddie. Weather in Ireland doesn't always mirror what is happening in the UK.

[Nemrytter]

Just saw headline in one of the newspapers this morning ' Weather Bomb' to hit over Christmas.I presume you got that from the Daily Express.

For future reference: picking a random weather headline out a hat has a similar level of accuracy to the typical Daily Express weather forecast. They are not professionals and do not have any great meteorological knowledge. Unfortunately there's nothing that can be done to prevent them spreading lies and falsehoods.:ugh:

[Council Van]

'Weather bomb'? what is one of those?
Could this be the article that the original poster refers to? Christmas weather prediction 2016: Snowbomb to smash UK on Christmas | Daily Star (http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/571318/uk-weather-christmas-day-snow-storm-barbara)

If airline pilots were as bad as flying aircraft as the Daily Star are at reporting the truth we would probably all be in prison. I was going to suggest that we would all be at the bottom of a deep smoking hole in the ground but to be as incompetent as a Daily Star journalist, well you would have done something really stupid before managing to find your way to a runway.

"Temperatures are set to plummet to a bone chilling 20 Celsius". I hope so, it would remind me of my childhood in South Africa when of course Christmas's occurs in mid summer.

"Blistering 70mph gales from the Atlantic will bring several feet of snow"? Perhaps might get the odd flake on the top of the Cairngorms but I suspect it will be to mild at low levels with such a pronounced South Westerly air flow.

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org (http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm)

Might be a bit breezy in Stornoway on Saturday, but they are use to it.

"The Scottish cities of Glasgow, Aberdeen and Edinburgh and parts of northern England are most likely to see winter flurries of snow."

The last paragraph of that article perhaps paints the more realistic picture.

[Uplinker]

Publishing a headline such as "Weather bomb to hit......." will sell extra newspapers to the great unwashed, who ceased to think for themselves many years ago. They will buy a newspaper with that sort of headline purely on impulse, hoping to find details of the latest outrage to get upset about.

Also it is patently obvious that the majority of tabloid journalists do not research their work properly, nor do they analyse facts, trends, etc. In a previous life I sometimes worked with TV journalists, most of whom were switched on, but occasionally some would say the most ridiculous things, and clearly had almost no understanding of how basic scientific/physical/geographic processes happened.

There is a big clue in all of this; What are published in newspapers are called 'stories'.

[crewmeal]

If it's the tabloids you read just believe the opposite. The UK is supposed to be under 6 foot of snow and record freezing temps the like the UK has never seen. Likewise they'll promise a scorcher of a summer with plenty of bbq weather. Need I say anymore?

[Una Due Tfc]

The Azores high moved up to cover the west coast of Ireland over the weekend, trapping the usual winter TS mid Atlantic for about the last week. There's been loads of severe turb and high level WS. There's a lot of nasty stuff out there waiting to come in when the Azores high goes home.

[601]

"Weather bomb to hit......."

Looks like the media have not found the word "SUPER" as they have in OZ.

[Maddie]

Ok, I am really, really petrified, I came back by train from Amsterdam in the last storm, rather than fly. If it is likely to be bumpy I will have to cancel, so please, is there anybody out there kind enough, who may be able to give me an idea, say Wednesday. Also, if I were able to get off work (they really will like me) and fly say Wednesday or Thursday, could I avoid the worst. I am really serious about this. I know these newspapers create headlines to sell papers, which is why I put the post here, knowing, I am likely to get a more grounded and realistic answer. Thank you so much. Maddie.

[ShyTorque]

Sorry Maddie,

Being in a position of relying on accurate weather forecasts and reported actuals on the day as part of my job, I'd say asking mainly non-qualified folk on an aviation website, even this one, is definitely not going to be a reliable method of assessing the weather four days in advance!

[Hotel Tango]

I'd say asking mainly non-qualified folk on an aviation website, even this one, is definitely not going to be a reliable method of assessing the weather four days in advance!

My experience in the more recent years is that even the so-called "qualified" folk can't get it right 24 hours in advance, let alone 4 days in advance!

[Doors to Automatic]

Looks like similar questions were asked and similar answers given this time last year:
http://www.pprune.org/passengers-slf-self-loading-freight/571827-weather-22nd-december-2015-a.html

[Hartington]

I think you'l find most aircrew don't want to be bounced around if they can possibly avoid it. In the case of the kind of jetstream being predicted in a few days they want to avoid it, not just to avoid the turbulence but also because a longer route is almost certainly faster because you avoid the headwinds.

My guess (and it IS a guess) is you'll head up over Iceland then left over central or even northern Greenland then over the North of Hudson Bay before heading back south towards Chicago. That way you should miss the worst of the weather.

[John Marsh]

A non-sensationalist, boring old fact the Daily Mail etc tend not to mention, is that airliners are built to withstand turbulence, with an ample safety margin.

I don't enjoy a bumpy flight. One of my trips TLV-LGW was a bit sporty. I found reassurance in recalling a programme on how resilient Boeing build their planes. Apart from some initial queasiness, I was fine. (As were the other pax.)

I realise that bold & dramatic trumps calm & accurate in the tabloid world. It's not exactly a responsible approach to journalism. Unnecessary fear can be the result.:(

[Maddie]

Thank you all for taking the time to reply.

I am flying to Chicago, to visit my best friends. They live in Ohio, but it will be over-land once I land at Ord. Yep, I posted a similar question last year. I flew almost weekly from UK to Dublin, to care for my Mum, for 12 years. She passed just over a year ago, This was followed by a complicated recovery from an Appendix op, early Jan 2016, so I have had a difficult year.

I was relatively ok about THE FLIGHT, until I scanned the newspaper headline early this morning, hence my posting.

I sooooo want to fly on Friday, and believe it or not the re-assuring words I have received in the past helped me enormously with my flights to my Mum, whom I love to Heaven and back.

So thank you everyone, for your replies

Maddie

[S.o.S.]

Thank you for the thread, Maddie, I recall your question from a year ago. I think that looking at many weather websites and then considering an average is one option. Let us know how things go.

[PAXboy]

I am not a fan of turbulence either but I can say, in the 50 years that I have been paxing, the amount of turbulence encountered has reduced considerably. The advent of weather radar and, with so many aircraft now crossing the Atlantic (and all oceans) there is a considerable amount of hour by hour data to relay to the planners and other aircraft.

Once, when coming back from HKG to the UK, we took an extra hour's diversion to avoid a bad storm over central China. It was a smooth ride.

The main place where the aircraft can get buffeted is when crossing the jet stream and the wind is at an angle to the aircraft. It's just like when a water skier crosses the wake of the towing boat - once into the slipstream (Jet Stream) then it's smoother as the wind is on the nose. So, if you feel some bumping, it shouldn't last too long as the flight crew move up and across to the smoother air.

I expect that you have medication that you can take - do so as it will help you be calmer.

[Delight]

Out of interest, is there a maximum headwind limit for take off and landing in say a 737-800?
I understand that there are maximums for crosswind components but if it is pretty much right down the runway, is there such as thing as too much headwind? :8

[PAXboy]

On Wednesday, I read in The Guardian that the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh had delayed their travel to Sandringham for Christmas, the better to recover from bad colds.

Today, I passed a news stand and one of the tabloids (the Fail or Express) had the headline:
Health Scare for Royals

That sums up the tabloids and how they report ordinary things.

A few hours after posting the above, the Queen and the Duke have travelled to Sandringham in a helicopter - very sensible. So let's see if the tabloids call this a 'Cas-Evac'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38405648

[Maddie]

So happy, I flew to JFK on Thursday, to avoid the pending storm. All went well weather wise, not one bump. Had brilliant views of New York on our approach.

So relieved to be in the US now to celebrate Christmas and New Year with my best friends.

Happy Christmas and New Year to you all and happy flying.

Maddie

[HZ123]

All's well that ends well! Happy Xmas and New Year to all!

[Hotel Tango]

Happy for you Maddie. Enjoy your Christmas. Poor old Santa, he has to fly through everything that's thrown at him! ;)

[Piltdown Man]

Delight - There is no such thing as too much headwind. But there is such a thing as too much wind to enable ground handling to take place. Most aircraft have limits on cargo and passenger doors, generally in the order of 60 knots or so. That means the plane may be able to fly, but without your bags. Sometimes because the the bags from the previous flight are still on board because the doors could not be opened at the previous destination. There are also wind limits on 'ambu-lifts' and catering trucks and you don't need much imagination to guess the effect of string winds in these vehicles.

With regard to this weather system and the UK, I rethink unless you wish to fly into or out of a northern U.K. airport on Friday pm you will be alright. As for ride quality, this will vary hour by hour and mile by mile. But rest assured, we want a smooth ride just as much as anyone else.

PM