Pilot shortage [Archive]

framer

21st Nov 2016, 09:00

This from an article that I read in the ME forum.

The critical shortage of pilots amidst growing demand across the entire aviation industry is the next major headache for some carriers, especially amongst those desperately looking to cut costs. Another report warns they should be doing the opposite.

“Due to the increasing demand for pilots and a growing lack of suitable candidates, airlines need to develop strategies to ensure they attract and retain, the right crew,” asserts global risk management company Marsh, which has suggested a number of vital alternative strategies for carriers. These include conducting regular pay reviews.

“Given that the cost of flight training is considered to be a deterrent for young talented [people], they are more likely to be attracted to airlines who offer generous packages covering these costs,” the company explains. “Having then borne the pilot training costs, the airline must seek to protect its investment by taking proactive care to retain its staff.”

The Marsh report cites improving work conditions as a significant factor that carriers should consider by “taking steps to ensure their corporate culture promotes a better work/life balance” for employees.

The Boeing projection has Asia/Pacific needing 248,000 new Airline pilots over the next 19 years. I have heard that the number of commercial pilots qualifying each year in Asia / Pacific is actually in decline, can anyone confirm this or point me to a reference source?
Cheers,
Framer

Capn Bloggs

21st Nov 2016, 10:25

You'll get in the LHS yet, framer!

Checklist Charlie

21st Nov 2016, 10:54

Pilot shortage

This can overcome by wearing high heels.

Both meanings apply.

CC

framer

21st Nov 2016, 17:36

Heh heh, watch out Bloggs, I might be sitting behind you soon!

Tuck Mach

21st Nov 2016, 18:58

In demographics is destiny...

Demographics are very predictable but ultimately are a very long term bet. They drive most markets. Pilots are no exception.

Australia has an adversarial industrial relations model and perhaps the best example of it is Qantas. Ian Oldmeadow and the consultants loved JQ. It drove a wedge between staff, created leverage and ultimately would force down terms and conditions.This has been the lot of the Qantas pilot: The career they hoped for dissolved, they were left with a job

2004: JQ created. By 2016 a 787 command.
2004 a Qantas joiner, maybe could be a 737 FO.

Qantas has spent an enormous amount of energy deriding, talking down the company, the brand and the staff. It was relentless. Staff were locked out in 2011. Even those pilots not involved in wearing red ties.
Qantas staff listened to comulsory 'next step together' days where management told them how clever management were and how transformed Qantas was. Of course they neglected any mention of the price of oil and the accounting trick they pulled writing off their fleet. Those two items alone were nearly every dollar of their 'turnaround profit'

However what Oldmeadow failed to tell his masters is the demographics drives economies.In isolation his model was incredible, but aviation is a global business, pilots are hard to train (they take time and money) and in suceeding in slowing down career paths at Q, they caused pilots to begin the process of wondering where else can i go?

Aviation qualification are expensive
The medical criteria required to hold ATPL medical can mean a premature end to a career in an industry known for ups and downs
Not everyone has the aptitude
Declining birth rates and aging populations in the western world.
Aviation growth (as forecast above)

The reality in Australia is Qantas is an employer. The only advantage is living in Australia. The career is long gone. The rushed Qantas 787 deal a low water contract. (shame AIPA didn't read these sort of articles)

Aviation is a global business and Australian carriers are competing for pilots. Qantas et al will never admit it but it is the reality. Less people are learning to fly and those that are flying are aging.

A strategic thinking airline could easily position itself to take advantage of Australia's crop of pilots who are by world standards very good and experienced.

A well remunerated, commuting contract would strike at the heart of Qantas and other airlines' traditional recruiting grounds, leaving Qantas and JQ very exposed...

457 visas and other tricks will control supply to a degree, but ultimately as certain ME carriers are finding out, the market for pilots works two ways and it isn't necessarily in their favour at present.:E

dragon man

21st Nov 2016, 19:33

Well said Tuck Mach. Can't wait to see how the crews enjoy 17 hour sectors on the 787 with no crew toilet or seat either!!!

propaganda

21st Nov 2016, 20:42

Here's another recent article well worth a read. https://aircargoeye.com/why-airlines-can-no-longer-afford-to-insult-their-pilots/

Grivation

21st Nov 2016, 21:37

Certainly starting to see a substantial increase in job adds.

I note Corporate Air having to advertise for twin piston drivers. That's got to speak volumes about the industry when one of the better operators is looking for that demographic.

DUXNUTZ

21st Nov 2016, 21:53

Nice post Tuck Mach.

I believe the prospect of a mass exodus would be greater at Virgin than at QF.

CurtainTwitcher

21st Nov 2016, 21:58

Great post Tuck Mach. The only thing I would add is I don't know anyone that would encourage their own children to follow after them into this industry.

There used to be many second generation pilots joining airlines. This indicated the depths of pain that airline managers have inflicted upon their pilots over the last 30 odd years.

They are reaping what they have sown, the "long-term" is now upon them.

The more detailed report which these articles appear to be based on: Overcoming the Pilot Shortage: Employee Benefits Can Prove to Be a Differentiator for Airlines Looking to Attract Talent (https://www.marsh.com/content/dam/marsh/Documents/PDF/UK-en/Overcoming%20the%20Pilot%20Shortage.pdf)

Tuck Mach

21st Nov 2016, 22:31

Qantas will shortly go into shut down mode. The droves of desk dwellers retire for the summer holidays. The offices are quiet. HR gone home. IR taking a break. most of the building empty. At least they can turn the air conditioning off, like they want the pilots to do on the passengers.

The flights however keep humming along. The operational staff have borne the brunt of the assault of IR over many years, yet amazingly it continues on. It is testament to fondness people have for aviation. Sadly for Qantas instead of trying to 'value capture' that energy, they embarked on the adversarial IR model of fear and intimidation.Ironically for them as you alluded to Curtain Twitcher "Welcome to the long term, as you sow you will reap.":ok:

Pilots are a very important cog in the wheel, no flying no revenue. Very simple. Sadly that isn't taught at modern management college. If you listen to them it all rests on the less than broad shoulders..Pilots collectively have rolled over too many times. The industry is where it is for a myriad of reasons. The industry in Australia mirrors the country; a hollowed out, real estate ponzi. An amazing land inhabited by less than amazing people. Our management class reflective of our political class. (Don't start me on that!)

It is amusing to watch the 'leadership' ( a loose term if ever there were one) wake up. Their only hope is a declining business cycle, (that according to Scott Morrison doesn't exist anymore) to begin the next round of downward bargaining...A declining business cycle is falling revenue (alan blames competition), higher cost (alan blames labour cost or oil), he can't (un) transform the business and declare another terminal decline.

Perhaps we will get to the point where respect is forced upon them, driven by economic reality. Sadly though with this myopic bunch of self important 'leaders' nothing will change and that includes the echelons of Flight operations. The 'transformation' game needed a new chairman and CEO so the 'witch is dead' routine would work out. They are too self centred. Alan's reputation not what skytrax or Geoffrey Thomas (is that pay for play or cash for comments?, how much is a chairman's lounge membership worth?) tells us. So they stayed.

Alan may be a wealthy man, he needs every cent.

Roj approved

21st Nov 2016, 23:44

Tuck Mach, spot on:ok:

It is evident by the numbers "testing the waters" going from QF to JQ on the MOU, SO's to JQ, LWOP to J* Vietnam, JQNZ, EK, QR etc.

Having a little look outside the comforts of QF, without actual letting go of the golden Parachute.

Once their MOU/LWOP time was up, there was a steady stream of guys trying China Southern for a bit more LWOP, just to see how it was. (the US$30k a month tax free and AUS basing helps), or EK for the SO's, still with their spot back at QF if it all doesn't work out.

One of the QF SO's that went to EK says he is more likely to get a A380 command at EK before he is eligible for a FO spot at QF! That'd make it a tough choice.

There is even a Recruiting company owned by some QF guys for all your contract needs.

So now we have a segment of QF guys that have seen the green grass (it's all astro turf anyway:O), the big decision now is where they want to live for the next 20/30 years.

Sandpit or Coogee?
Tax or no Tax?
Industrial protection or none?
Fast command or slow steady progress with legacy rosters?

IMHO this directly attributed to the new 787 deal being signed off, as the scare tactic of greenfields AOC, or JQ operating the -9, was too much to bear.

I am not condoning the IR behaviour of Oldmeadow and Joyce, but it has worked a treat. If they start to run out of Pilots, they can lobby the government to allow 457 visas to plug the gap in the short term, but the longer term view will be to shift flying to a cheaper entity or contract within the group, once again with the governments blessing to get around those pesky "transfer of business" rules.

Remember, we fly aeroplanes, they run companies. Our interests are not the same.

Chadzat

22nd Nov 2016, 00:39

"Remember, we fly aeroplanes, they run companies. Our interests are not the same."

What a great quote! I like it

QuarterInchSocket

22nd Nov 2016, 00:41

Good read Tuck Mach, thank you. The cynic/skeptic within continually asks if these skilled person shortages are part of an overall plan to dumb down training req's <further> and/or open the flood gates; a rather basic/primitive view, I know...

Stardoggas

22nd Nov 2016, 02:06

Rex is feeling the crunch. 40 captains have left for majors in the past 6 months while many others wait for their start dates. With their requirements as high as some of the majors they are being overlooked and it might be a little scary where they end up in the coming months.

Tuck Mach

22nd Nov 2016, 02:16

Sealear,

You are correct, although Qantas focused the reality is that this is economy wide. Any skill set that has along lead time and cost is something that has a problem. The demographic trend is something that will overwhelm everything including our social security system.
As I said if the companies get around the living in Australia bit with realistic rostering and remuneration, any chummy emails from the same Flight Operations management that locked out Qantas pilots fall on even deafer (sorry pun intended!) ears.

QuarterInchSocket
You are not cynical, the play in this country has to using nominal small pay rises to undermine the real wage. Doing so would improve competitiveness. It started with Hawke and Keating during the accord years. Real wages in Australia are not growing much and have been stagnant for many years. 457 visas are the tool of choice to keep downwards pressure on wages.

Aviation it is a global market, and pilots are not averse to movement. Although a 457 ploy may help short term, ultimately it induces a shortage somewhere else. The market in action. Supply will meet demand when the price is met.
As Roj alluded to, the IR strategy is to intimidate and scare. Then open the MOU to JQ and see who the takers are. The classic greenfield operation, but from the inside! The short haul EA will likely be opened on a market downturn, with the A320 neo introduction, and the standard threat of it will be crewed by Network, Qantas link, Jetconnect (are we missing one?) It is a shame the myopic union management didn't see the potential to reduce supply using a contracting company. The AMA control supply very well.

Ironically they (management) do not see it coming, Australia retires a substantial component of the workforce in the next decade. Why do you think the pension age keeps increasing?; not enough taxpayers!

Qantas management chose to be adversarial, grounding an airline, belittling staff, destroying brand value and pursuing pointless JQ wet dreams in Asia.With the same management in place, is it any wonder pilots will test waters, not the greenfield JQ but other carriers....There is no trust no matter what the skewed data of company structured surveys say!

I am certainly not excusing VA, they all read from the same script to a more or less degree. Even wonder what CEO's discuss at IATA?

Having said that, it isn't an IR problem per se, VAH has problems of a financial nature, but the impact is still the same.

Good real commuting contracts poaching pilots (otherwise known as strategic assets) is the Achilles heel of Australian airlines...:E.

josephfeatherweight

22nd Nov 2016, 02:35

framer

22nd Nov 2016, 03:17

Does anyone have a source for pilot numbers being produced by region ( Asia/Pacific) annually? Or to get that would you have to spend a few days collating info from all the various countries regulators?

bafanguy

22nd Nov 2016, 10:00

"Does anyone have a source for pilot numbers being produced by region ( Asia/Pacific) annually?"

framer,

Might be a little info on this report around page 10:

https://www.halldale.com/files/halldale/attachments/Erfan%20Chowdhury.pdf

framer

22nd Nov 2016, 17:51

Thanks fanguy, very interesting.

AerocatS2A

23rd Nov 2016, 00:32

What can be guaranteed is that the collective pilot group will not benefit from holding any potential "upper-hand" that could develop from such a "shortage". We will not band together and we will continue to step over our own mothers to secure the best deal (at the time) for Number One. My prediction, anyway... :E
If there is a true shortage then pilots won't need to band together. They will take the jobs they want and the companies will still be short and will start competing on wages/conditions with each other. If there is a true shortage.

Icarus2001

23rd Nov 2016, 04:14

SAS to cancel 700+ flights over Cimber pilot shortage - ch-aviation.com (http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/43454-sas-to-cancel-700-flights-over-cimber-pilot-shortage)

Tuck Mach

23rd Nov 2016, 06:06

In demographics is destiny...

Oldmeadow a relic from a by-gone era and Clifford way past his use by date.
Joyce took Qantas with board acquiescence down a path where any respect was lost. The bad mouthing, implied threats and outright rubbish used to justify the grounding of an airline and locking out of staff is not forgotten. They won the dispute and used the 'loss' they manufactured with a fleet write down to lock staff in to pay freezes (cabin crew excepted) with the usual threats of job losses for pilots, cabin crew and engineers.The ink hadn't even dried and the 'transformation' was announced...

As you sow you will reap.
Maybe all the HR smart alecs can pick up a pilot's licence and take up the slack...Apparently Bruce Buchanan was going to do the same as CEO of JQ, thinking it was a week or two to get qualified.

Rui Dias

30th Nov 2016, 12:15

There is no shortage of pilots or will ever be. Companies need to adapt to the market situation and drop their ridiculous requirements. Supply and demand. When I finished my course in 2009 in Europe, there were no jobs for low houred pilots. The only thing you could find were some pay to fly schemes in Asia with no guarantee of employment. Many fellow pilots just dropped their dream and moved to other endeavours.

The excuse of lack of experience or wanting short-cuts is not valid as have many friends and know several pilots that went straight from flight school to jet and nowadays are captains or becoming captains very soon. As an example, one of my mates started as a 737 F/O at the age of 22 and became a 737 captain with 26 with Ryanair.

Just give a chance.

Best regards.

gtseraf

30th Nov 2016, 21:20

Tuck Mach

30th Nov 2016, 22:03

In demographics is destiny...

Each empire rises and falls on demographics: the Romans, Egyptians and even the West!

There is no way to 'buy' experience but of course there will be attempts to water down the levels of experience so the employer doesn't have to 'pay' for it. JQ and numerous subsidies kept absorbing the rising cost pressure of flight crew at Qantas. Oldmeadow was right for a while...However, .pilots are a global strategic asset. Walk into the Qantas administration buildings in the next few weeks and they will be deserted. All the while the operation tinkers along, revenue flows in through the Christmas period. Take the operational staff out (including pilots) and the thing grinds to a halt...

I don't know about others, but if I need a brain surgeon I want the best, most experienced and likely grey flecked hair and experienced specialist I can find. They also usually cost a bit more than the 'Dr. Nick Riviera version'. I would imagine a jet costing $250 million is worth the same consideration as well as the 450 odd souls on board.

The simple economics are thus:

Markets clear at a price.
Demand unmet will eventually be satisfied as the price increases.
Employers will do everything to keep costs down, particularly as it relates to pilots.
Pilots are a strategic asset.
the skillset is expensive to attain, not everyone can do it and experienced crew save a lot of operating expense.
Pilots are commanding a premium as the demographics at play reduce supply.

Is funny to watch the Oldmeadows et al in their respective IR towers design an adversarial scare campaign to tackle it..They already locked the operational staff out once!

Connections tell me Qantas and Jetstar are really short on crew with the problem persisting for many months, ironic really as their corporate IR vision helped reduce supply and turn people away from aviation as the reward was not there for the expenditure.

Many pilots looked elsewhere.

A great commuting contract would see a few more leave Qantas and Virgin...commuting contracts have the potential to expose the Achilles heel of Australian airline recruiting, and as supply continues to contract as pilot work forces age, the tension just builds. Sadly for airline managers who put Flight attendants on the 457 visa list and tag flight foreign crew through Australia, globalisation at least in this instance is a two way street: Whilst they love undermining onshore terms and conditions, they would much prefer the market closed and restricted when it suits them!

Hubris in action! :ok:

Metroboy

1st Dec 2016, 01:28

fender

1st Dec 2016, 02:36

The future is here, Autonomous flight is here. It started with killer drones, then move to supply drops in isolated regions, then everyday use in parcel and pizza delivery by amazon and your local pizza bar into mainstream cargo flights and finally, commercial pilots will be a thing of the past.
Kids from Hungry Jacks will get drone licences and it is all over.
All major aeronautical companies are furiously working day and night on this "problem". Public needs a little convincing but that shouldn't be hard with a few more accidents associated with pilot error. Am I kidding? Sadly I think No.

Density

1st Dec 2016, 03:13

fender....I think you might be a little ahead of yourself there. Agreed that autonomous flight is already here, hell we can even do auto lands and have done for quiet some time. I think it will still be some time however before we do without pilots for several reasons. Firstly, the comfort factor. Humans still gain confidence in seeing people (pilots) at the front of aircraft (even if they don't see them for the duration of the flight mind you). The comfort factor I suggest has to do with trust or lack of trust of machines at this point of time should something go wrong. Whether the pilots make the correct decision or not is kind of irrelevant.

Secondly, I don't believe we are at that stage yet and may in fact be some time to overcome the logistics, but more so the expense (take NASA out of the equation) required to establish such a system that allows autonomous flight particularly intercontinental.

Mafortion

1st Dec 2016, 03:43

sealear

1st Dec 2016, 03:56

I agree that there is an upcoming shortage of "experienced" pilots, not pilots in general. Not to start a debate or anything, but would I have trusted myself in the right seat of a 737 at 200hrs? No way. The left seat 4 years later? Hell no. Some of the things I did in GA..... we all know what that is like. Mistakes that shouldn't be made with 200+ plus pax down the back. It is all part of the learning process.

Re automation.... I am not so sure that it is a long way off. In the next 10-20 years? No, but in the next 50? Absolutely. Automated cars will be the catalyst. The technology is still in its infancy and nowhere near ready, but once people are comfortable with the idea and they see tangible results on how it will improve safety, the world will change overnight. If I were thinking of getting into the industry right now, it would be in the back of my mind.

MACH082

1st Dec 2016, 04:04

Once we have AI and I don't mean programmable AI, I mean real AI. Then we may have automated pilotless jets.

Until a machine can use previous experience and a proactive preemptive style of command verse a reactive one, then it will remain the status quo. There will also need to be someone there to reset systems and takeover when it hits the fan.

Icarus2001

1st Dec 2016, 04:11

Before you get too carried away with considering UAV - "pilot less" aircraft...ask yourself why most train systems around the world still use drivers given that automated trains are in use in various countries. Also shipping could very easily adopt this concept until the marine pilot jumps on board near harbour.

The first step would surely be single pilot high capacity RPT, not likely in the next twenty years.

Another small point, most US military UAVs "drones" still have a pilot somewhere, and a payload specialist. Have a look at the film Eye in the Sky...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_in_the_Sky_(2015_film)

sealear

1st Dec 2016, 05:38

Agree, still many decades away....... as for trains etc? $$$$$$
I know we all want to keep our jobs etc, but we may as well accept that the world is (very) slowly going in that direction. Won't be a problem for this generation, but maybe the next and definitely the one after that. If pollution hasn't killed us off before then :E

Mach, take a look at Google's deep mind project. AI may not be as far off as you think! But then again, what would I know :)

IsDon

1st Dec 2016, 07:22

Autonomous vehicle.

Ask the the decapitrated Tesla driver who thought making a YouTube video about his autonomously driving vehicle, while he was hurtling down the motorway, was a great idea.

Right up until he ploughed into a semi trailer.

Rui Dias

1st Dec 2016, 09:23

Rui

Sorry, must disagree with you.

There is a shortage of EXPERIENCED pilots and it looks like it will get worse. As a 30 year veteran in the industry, in my opinion, you cannot teach experience. A low hour pilot will come out of school with a basic understanding of how to fly an aeroplane.

Yes, such a pilot can very quickly move through to Captain, however, I am not sure such a person can be the same as a 30 year captain. There is so much about flying safety, which we learn as we fly. I had the privilege of flying with very experienced pilots and learned so much from them.

Another aspect of this immediate result attitude, is that many pilots are prepared to accept crappy deals to get a quick jump into a shiny jet and a command at 26. Sadly, these crappy deals then become the norm in the industry and these young 'uns may well be stuck in the crappy deal for the rest of their careers, almost 40 years.

May be better to suffer a bit as a youngster to ensure the deals remain good, so one can MAXIMISE one's income over a potential 45 year career.

Think long term guys, it is not easy but it is essential!!
I agree with you that there is a shortage of experienced pilots it will get worse. The question is how to solve the problem? It would be nice to build experience step by step but what if there is no other option? In Europe, unlike in Australia, there is virtually no GA in order for young pilots to gain experience. Most regional airlines went bust as low cost carriers took their market, creating a tighter bottleneck. Going straight to jets has been the only viable option for some time. Would you rather stay at home with massive debt from your pilots studies instead of taking the RHS in jet full with passengers?

No airline will give you a LHS or a RHS if you are not fit for the job. If 200 hours pilots in jets is dangerous, the number of accidents would be higher. Yet, statistics do not support that claim.

My solution is that if you want experienced pilots, you have to let them fly. Let every choose their own path, as everyone has different objectives.

In terms of benefits, when you have bills to pay, loan repayments and put food on the table, would you choose a crappy pay or no pay at all?

AerocatS2A

1st Dec 2016, 12:06

MACH082

1st Dec 2016, 12:08

Yes, can't say I want Skynet flying me and the family for our annual holiday.

Rui Dias

1st Dec 2016, 12:37

Rui Dias, I think the problem is that the more inexperience you have in the right seat, the more experience you need in the left seat. So there may be plenty of inexperienced guys available to fill the right seat and airlines may be happy to put them there. From the new FO's point of view there is no shortage as there are lots of other low time FOs competing for the same seats, but the same companies are scratching around for experienced captains.

In short, there is no contradiction. On the one hand new pilots still don't find it easy to get work while on the other hand older pilots are getting contacted out of the blue by head hunters. At the same time, the airlines are addressing the experience issue by putting low time pilots in the right seat but it takes time to build that experience and some of them need experience now, not in five years.
I totally agree. But I don't feel sorry for the airlines as this supposed crisis was created by them. Since I finished my training in 2009, the vast majority of airlines were and are treating young and inexperienced pilots worse than dog ****. That was one of the reasons I came to Australia, as I saw the possibility of building a decent career, despite being not as easier as I thought. But I will keep on going.

Tuck Mach

1st Dec 2016, 19:14

Hollywood and Tesla may promote it, but it doesn't mean it will happen soon! Driver less cars advertised by Tesla are great marketing but the acceptance of an automated aircraft is long way off.

I personally would love to see a manned mission to Mars, and although films are made and the chatter incessant, the reality is a little different:

Tom Young, the former director of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and former president and chief operating officer of the Martin Marietta Corporation, agreed that NASA does not currently have a clear pathway to Mars. “What we do not have is a plan, strategy, or architecture with sufficient detail that takes us from today to humans on the surface of Mars,” he said.

Space experts warn Congress that NASA?s ?Journey to Mars? is illusory | Ars Technica (http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/02/space-experts-warn-congress-that-nasas-journey-to-mars-is-illusory/)

Things may be a bit further off than advertised...:ok:

framer

1st Dec 2016, 22:27

How about the Airlines invest in their product?
What if an Airline spent money in 2017 to ensure experience in 2020?
If that Airline penned an MOU with the local flying school to take ten CPL graduate per annum , pay them the minimum wage, roster them on the computer meanies HF course and one flight per week in the jump seat while they studied their aviation degree or what ever they chose to study and actually nursed them through from young 18 year old CPL to keen 23 year old first officer candidate . Pay Experienced Captains to sit down with them once a month and mentor them through a program .actually put money into creating a good product. What about that?

fender

1st Dec 2016, 22:36

I would never suggest that Unmanned commercial flights are upon us. But with technology at exponential growth it could well be closer than we think. Depends on your interpretation of close. Mine is within the ? generation.
In the short term, I think some airlines WILL come to the party and start to reduce cost to candidate to get them in the right seat.

fender

1st Dec 2016, 22:56

Im in my "twilight years", maybe twilight months, and I have never had to pay for an endorsement, how times have changed. I feel privileged I was born a 50s wild child even my kids are envious. THAT'S what worries me more. Good luck to all who go down the aviation path.

dr dre

1st Dec 2016, 23:13

I can't see any airline within the cut-throat industry we are in deciding to burden themselves with cost.

I believe Aer Lingus does, and I would consider BA to effectively fund its FPP with the full cost of the course being paid back over seven years as a form of quasi-bonding. Very unlikely for someone to leave a legacy carrier like BA within 7 years anyway.

How about the Airlines invest in their product?
What if an Airline spent money in 2017 to ensure experience in 2020?
If that Airline penned an MOU with the local flying school to take ten CPL graduate per annum , pay them the minimum wage, roster them on the computer meanies HF course and one flight per week in the jump seat while they studied their aviation degree or what ever they chose to study and actually nursed them through from young 18 year old CPL to keen 23 year old first officer candidate . Pay Experienced Captains to sit down with them once a month and mentor them through a program .actually put money into creating a good product. What about that?

Minus the wage bit, isn't that similar to what Qlink and UNSW are doing? What you've described is essentially a sponsored cadetship

*Lancer*

2nd Dec 2016, 00:53

Have a look at what has changed in the last 100 years in aviation; the last 20 years in computing; the last 10 years in communications.

Telsa's autopilot is commercially available now. Very sadly killed a guy, and people are still buying them faster than they can be produced!

The only reason for drivers remaining on trains is industrial (E.g. Sydney Metro. They're still getting rid of conductors).

Dark Knight

2nd Dec 2016, 01:46

UAVs and the technology have been around since 1959 progressing to new viable methods year by year.

First to go will be the Second Officer/Cruise Pilot followed by the F/O.

Long Haul will initially have 2 Captains eventually one purely to sit in the seat for T/O, approach & landing (and to feed the dog)

Where will Captains of the future get 3, 4 or 5,000hours of experience?

The only reason for drivers remaining on trains is industrial Pilots have clearly demonstrated they no longer have the industrial will, unity or care to stand up for their future; sadly airline operators/management clearly understand this.

Slippery_Pete

2nd Dec 2016, 02:05

The crunch is already hitting majorly.

One Company cancelling and combining a huge number of flights already - with hardly any upgradeable FOs. The ones who are upgradeable and who pass the 3-6 month upgrade are resigning within weeks of achieving command anyway. Plus losing training pilots is destroying the upgrade capacity.

Capt Kremin

2nd Dec 2016, 03:45

I cant wait for AI to take over. Douglas Adams even predicting it years ago...

<dissolve> ``Yes,'' said the voice again, ``there has been a delay. Passengers are to be kept temporarily in suspended animation, for their comfort and convenience. Coffee and biscuits are being served every year, after which passengers are returned to suspended animation for their continued comfort and convenience. Departure will take place when the flight stores are complete. We apologize for the delay.''

Zaphod moved away from the door, on which the pounding had now ceased. He approached the flight console.

``Delay?'' he cried, ``Have you seen the world outside this ship? It's a wasteland, a desert. Civilization's been and gone, man. There are no lemon-soaked paper napkins on the way from anywhere!''

``The statistical likelihood,'' continued the autopilot primly, ``is that other civilizations will arise. There will one day be lemon-soaked paper napkins. Till then there will be a short delay. Please return to your seat.''

Dont get me started on the ability of AI to cope with situations out of left-field..

Dark Knight

2nd Dec 2016, 04:01

However Captain; omitted from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy is

Don't Panic

Falling Leaf

2nd Dec 2016, 04:35

One Company cancelling and combining a huge number of flights already

Can we say who? Or are we to guess?

Tuck Mach

2nd Dec 2016, 06:20

Fallingleaf
Can we say who? Or are we to guess? A little birdy mentioned that the once proud now mangled marsupial will have interesting times Q1 next year...
Apparently the Orange child is having similar issues..

Get all the HR back from leave, train them to fly, after all it is simple just ask them! They may actually generate a bit of revenue for a change instead of just spending it..:E

sealear

2nd Dec 2016, 22:48

Here we go with the Tesla autopilot argument again. If you are going to go down that path, dyor at least please :rolleyes:
Autopilot is nowhere near a finished product, the owners manual CLEARLY states that you must have your hands on the wheel at all times. What more do you want? Is it poorly named? Hell yes. We all know how many people have been killed while using Autopilot. How many have been saved? The media doesn't report that.

Now for the issue of space travel..... NASA is extremely underfunded and it is amazing what they accomplish with such limited resources. Imagine if they had the funding of the US military for example. Space X has autonomously landed a first stage rocked on a floating barge. That has never been done before, and again on limited resources. Before you go around claiming we will never make it to Mars, ask yourself why do you think that is? The capability, the motivation, the technology (to a certain extent) is all there, the only thing that is missing is FUNDING. With unlimited funding I think you would be amazed at what could be done. We already have an electric car that can travel over 500km, too bad it costs well north of 100k.

AI is going to happen whether you like it or not. Yes, a lot of high profile intelligent people are vocally against it, but a lot of companies are aggressively researching the technology as we speak. No one knows how it is going to impact society, but I think we have been watching too many movies.

Anyway, I am getting seriously off topic now, so I am just going to skip ahead and say "past performance is not an indicator of future results" (someone already said that above). :)

Falling Leaf

3rd Dec 2016, 01:09

Apparently the Orange child is having similar issues..

A little bird whispered to me they need 200 pilots. Good luck getting those with the parent short as well as the feeder turbo-prop operations.

intotheblue

3rd Dec 2016, 01:29

A little bird whispered to me they need 200 pilots. Good luck getting those with the parent short as well as the feeder turbo-prop operations.

Well that'll be why they restarted the cadet program then!

Berealgetreal

3rd Dec 2016, 03:12

A little bird whispered to me they need 200 pilots. Good luck getting those with the parent short as well as the feeder turbo-prop operations.

They'll come from Virgin.

Tommy Bahama

3rd Dec 2016, 04:13

They'll come from Virgin.

And the queue is a mile long.......

framer

3rd Dec 2016, 05:58

Maybe but that just kicks the can further down the track. Who will crew Virgin flights? Or if they fail, will crew the flights of the operator that tries to fill the gap?

Popgun

3rd Dec 2016, 07:40

There is certainly no shortage of suitable applicants for QF and JQ positions to fill the numbers required many times over.

As for a pilot shortage more generally...experienced, type-specific Captains in Asia and the ME perhaps...but not in Australia.

I posted the following under the Virgin Recruitment Thread but it belongs here as well:

There are (better contracts), but generally not in places considered by many Australians as desirable to live long-term, or commuting to work under contracts that do not have the backstop of employee-challengeable industrial relations laws championed by unions and arbitrated by a law-abiding umpire. So there is significant career risk in leaving for these jurisdictions...especially when you are young(ish) and have more than 5 years left before retirement.

Mostly these 'better and better' contracts are in the Middle East or Asia or working under the terms of a potentially rubbery contract. Often they are in an environment where you are tolerated and made to feel like a foreigner. Most pilots that I know place significant importance on having a professionally enjoyable atmosphere on the flight deck...especially on long haul.

These are major reasons why the ranks of Australian carriers have not been decimated by the growth in jet jobs in the Middle East and Asia.

I have friends and know of many pilots in these regions who desperately want to come home but feel trapped by the money they are earning and the fact that even if they are lucky enough to be successful then that position will be entry-level and of course at the bottom of the seniority list.

Most Australian pilots still place a VERY high value on living and working at home, under Australian IR laws with transparent seniority lists and the participation of unions in the workplace.

Now, if suddenly these jobs and commuting contracts were available with Western European or North American carriers? Well then I think the trickle of pilots leaving our shores could turn into a flood and our terms and conditions here would likely be driven up.

Until then, the 'pilot shortage' we often hear about doesn't apply so much to such a sought after location as Australia.

PG

mattyj

3rd Dec 2016, 20:25

Enos

3rd Dec 2016, 21:00

If you change operations then of course you go to the bottom of the seniority list..and start in something other than command..what do you expect!? Just because you've got a few silver hairs, a bunch of hours, had commands flying rubber dogsh-- out of Sri Lanka etc etc that means you should get ahead of everyone else?? Just slot into the program and enjoy letting someone else take responsibility for a while.

Hey Matty while I agree what you're saying regarding seniority I think you might be missing the the point.

If they're talking about inexperienced FOs so inexperienced that they can't upgrade, then the guy who's been flying the rubber dog Sh1t out of Asia might be better in the left seat.

Slotting in and enjoying the program in the right seat, might mean an experienced captain baby sitting someone in the left seat who clearly shouldn't be there.

This sounds like a committee to me, not a great feeling to send your wife and kids off flying with!

You can't buy experience and if management with nice suits, big egos and political agendas can't understand this, then the holes in Swiss cheese will line up pretty quickly.

Good luck and I hope you're around long enough to grow a few grey hairs.

Daylight Robbery

4th Dec 2016, 07:23

I think a number of airlines down here have found Direct Entry Command a spin of the roulette wheel. It sounds really appealing for management. But for all the great operators who come in and add spine, there are many who tax the training system or cause a heap of other problems.

Not adjusting to the company culture and rebelling against it seems the most common problem. Coming to L Cost after a 'premium' carrier creates a challenge to adapt to the DIY environment. Some people cope and thrive and a few certainly do not. By far the preference is to promote from within.

Vorsicht

4th Dec 2016, 09:47

The seniority argument is so short sighted and perpetuated by those that benefit from it. It is probably the single biggest barrier to improved conditions in this country.

I do concede, however, that it is probably necessary because Australian pilots demonstrate time and time again that they will screw their colleagues for their own benefit, or their sons, or brothers etc. Hence seniority is the worst possible system, except for all the others.

Edit: The counter to the drawbacks of seniority is a strong unionised workforce that ensures Companies can't take advantage of the inherent stability that seniority provides management. Anyone seen a strong unionised workforce around here lately??

clear to land

4th Dec 2016, 15:03

Seniority is only a benefit to the Employer, NOT the employee. It creates a captive workforce-which can never benefit anyone but the employer. Although it has some benefits e.g. transparency the negatives definitely outweigh the positives especially regarding Terms and Conditions. How many other 'professions' are promoted purely on seniority.?? Another stupidity of the industry, especially in Australia is pay based on weight. Given that the larger aircraft generally do less challenging flying than the smaller ones fleet pay is a much more logical way to go. It stops people changing types purely for monetary value. A commander on a 330/340/777/787/744/380 have EQUAL responsibility and should receive equal remuneration. Pay should be narrow-body and wide-body. Before anyone accuses me of personal bias I have zero interest in returning to an Australian airline, these are merely my observations from outside the petrie dish!.

Derfred

4th Dec 2016, 21:49

Why should narrow/wide body differ?

t_cas

4th Dec 2016, 22:03

Generally, wide bodies, other than the costs/logistics operating equation, will send many to an early grave from circadian disruption. I am sure an EK participator may shed some light on these effect in modern aviation.

Narrow body, (in Aus) can been hectic although less back of clock, augmented operations through multiple time zones.

It all adds up. We need to remember, that as a vocation, we have a finite window to earn income. Medical standards or lack of them can knock your career on the head earlier these days. There is much risk in becoming a pilot. Little, if any, of it borne by the companies.

Look at insurance premiums for pilots. Actuaries know the real risks. Premium remuneration for this work should relate to the massive risk we take making it our primary income stream.

Willie Nelson

5th Dec 2016, 02:12

Popgun hit the nail on the head. I'm one if those young captains that a lot of Asian and ME carriers are keen to get their hands on and for reasons of keeping my family happy and the rule of law if nothing else, I'm not in the least bit interested in upping sticks from Oz.

Clear to land said:

Seniority is only a benefit to the employer NOT the employee

Why is it so many have lost the capacity to see nuance in reasoned debate. Seniority doesn't come in to play until you are deemed meritorious. Ours is one of the only industries that has BOTH merit and seniority. You might not say the above CTL if you were stuck in the RHS of some dodgy state owned carrier that kept on promoting the bosses mates over you.

Of course we would all agree there are downsides to the seniority system for our EBA negotiations and other reasons.

Nevertheless under a seniority system I always felt comfortable as an FO to stand up to management when I felt that they were taking the piss. I could defend my actions in the light of the regulator and company policy and given that I maintained a good standard of merit, the command came when my number came up simple as that.

Seniority has afforded me and my clients a level of unconflicted safety that allows all and sundry to go home to our wives and children each night. Its not the only way to keep things safe but as you say yourself it adds a great degree of "transparency" to the system and that comforts me very much.

Arewegettingjets

5th Dec 2016, 02:17

Popgun hit the nail on the head. I'm one if those young captains that a lot of Asian and ME carriers are keen to get their hands on and for reasons of keeping my family happy and the rule of law if nothing else, I'm not in the least bit interested in upping sticks from Oz.

Clear to land said:

Why is it so many have lost the capacity to see nuance in reasoned debate. Seniority doesn't come in to play until you are deemed meritorious. Ours is one of the only industries that has BOTH merit and seniority. You might not say the above CTL if you were stuck in the RHS of some dodgy state owned carrier that kept on promoting the bosses mates over you.

Of course we would all agree there are downsides to the seniority system for our EBA negotiations and other reasons.

Nevertheless under a seniority system I always felt comfortable as an FO to stand up to management when I felt that they were taking the piss. I could defend my actions in the light of the regulator and company policy and given that I maintained a good standard of merit, the command came when my number came up simple as that.

Seniority has afforded me and my clients a level of unconflicted safety that allows all and sundry to go home to our wives and children each night. Its not the only way to keep things safe but as you say yourself it adds a great degree of "transparency" to the system and that comforts me very much.

Never a truer word said Willie.

CaptCloudbuster

5th Dec 2016, 23:29

For the record, Clear to Land's assertion that promotion in our industry is based purely on Seniority does not apply in QF.

One must pass muster through the Command Assesment Committee before actually having the experience, skill and mettle to successfully complete the Command training program.

Having the seniority for Command and actually achieving it are two seperate things.

Lookleft

6th Dec 2016, 01:12

Also for the record J* has a Command Upgrade program that a person has to go through before they can commence command training. Its not compulsory, but you don't get to start command training unless you have successfully completed it. In other words, you have to want it before you can get it, in addition to your position on the seniority list.

IsDon

6th Dec 2016, 01:44

Gnadenburg

7th Dec 2016, 01:51

Pilot shortage or no pilot shortage, it will have no effect on our terms and conditions in Australia unless we remove our dependence on seniority. The pros are of course horizontal movement of pilots between airlines. And the cons are of course well known.

Only the departure of pilots in large numbers will make a difference, and this will never happen so long as a return means starting again at the bottom.

If we make no changes to the way we operate, Asia Pac could need 2 million pilots in the next 3 years, threads like this would continue to appear, and yet it would make no difference to us here in Oz.

Haven't been here for a while but utter rubbish.

When I was an Ansett F/O there were clowns who came back to Australia and were training captains at Virgin Blue for less pay than an Ansett F/O.

Now, I'm still south 50, can retire though enjoy the $500,000 AUD a year at 15% tax. Remove seniority ( and standards ) and Filipino and Australian pilots would flock to do my job at a considerable cheaper rate.

The enemy of Australian pilots is not seniority but other Australian pilots. Have a look at the first 30 to 50 on the seniority list at Virgin perhaps, or the Impulse guys.

morno

7th Dec 2016, 02:12

When I was an Ansett F/O there were clowns who came back to Australia and were training captains at Virgin Blue for less pay than an Ansett F/O

Maybe that's why Ansett went broke?

The enemy of Australian pilots is not seniority but other Australian pilots. Have a look at the first 30 to 50 on the seniority list at Virgin perhaps, or the Impulse guys.

Jealousy?

Gnadenburg

7th Dec 2016, 04:48

To make it easier, without debating the Ansett business model, politics nor the very good luck of Virgin, don't forget the cheap-charlies at Virgin Blue were undercutting QF International and Domestic pilots too. And just to remind you, First Officers at the incumbent Australian carriers were better paid than training captains at Virgin.

It is comical, that now these low paid pilots live in hope of a pilot shortage and spray the age old BS that it's seniority that's keeping them in a lower middle class. A no-seniority industry would erode their wages further as massively cashed up expatriates could come home and under cut their jobs as east coast Australian cities would be a lifestyle base. I bet the QF guys aren't putting forward this absurd philosophy.

I don't get your jealousy jibe. As a rule, VB pilots don't live in the choice Australian suburbs I would, nor send their kids to the choice schools I would, nor blow a 100k on a holiday or 10k on a dinner. I know for many it's a bit of a struggle.

But yes, the QF guys I do envy in some ways, but good luck to them.

Mr.Buzzy

7th Dec 2016, 05:18

Fish aren't biting today Gardenburglar? Maybe it's the smog or the raw effluent in the water?

Bbbzbzbzbzbzbzbzbcoughcoughzzbzbzbzbzbzbzzzzz

Gnadenburg

7th Dec 2016, 05:37

Still typically sensitive there. I'm sure you've paid off that endorsement you had to buy for the job buzzy, but mortgaged to the hilt out there in Brown's Plains must give Virgin a GA feel, if your camel-brown pants don't.

I'd do your job for a golf membership. :hmm:

Open Descent

7th Dec 2016, 10:24

if your camel-brown pants don't

You really have been away for a while!! :}

Fliegenmong

7th Dec 2016, 10:45

10k on a dinner

For how many peopl? ...WTF? Companies do Christmas parties for entire staff for far less than this!!

Half Baked

7th Dec 2016, 11:53

And I wonder why I bother reading this forum ............

What a disgrace!

PROFESSIONAL! NOT!!!

Slam click!

Gnadenburg

7th Dec 2016, 13:57

And I wonder why I bother reading this forum ............

What a disgrace!

PROFESSIONAL! NOT!!!

Slam click!

Why? What don't you get about being a professional pilot?

Do you think a self-funded endorsement is more professional than a legacy carrier investment in training?

Perhaps choose your words more discerningly.

Bogan aviators……..

sealear

7th Dec 2016, 20:05

I have to agree with that. I don't like seniority either but if you were to remove it watch all the ME drivers flock back and take any job on offer at the lowest rate. It would be a disaster.

Gnadenburg

7th Dec 2016, 23:41

lemel

I'm suggesting you do something, anything, other than talk up the the illusion of the Great White Hope of a pilot shortage. Because it's not going to ever be an issue in Australia as wealthy expatriates would come home in droves and airline management knows the lifestyle attraction with a reduction in wage pressure they can play on.

Would expatriate Australian pilots return home and fly for 50% less than the current Virgin or Jetstar pilots now? I doubt it. But that should hit home. That's the stain the initial cadre of Virgin pilots left on the industry- and throw in paid endorsements. Those guys should never be forgotten and I'm guessing they're in the top 30 or so on the seniority list. They are bogan aviators.

Australian pilots blaming seniority for their woes is an appalling cop-out and has wiped the lessons of history.

thefeatheredone

Nice try.

Gnadenburg

8th Dec 2016, 00:06

Quote:
The seniority argument is so short sighted and perpetuated by those that benefit from it.
And the argument to remove it is perpetuated by those who would benefit from it.

Both NZ and AUS are desirable places to live... so much so, that many have halved their expat salaries just to move home.

Without Seniority, Commands would go to those who have held them overseas or Management stooges with more st on their noses than in my kids diaper.

Yea, it's a bit of a hit to the ego for those who took quick Commands in the ME/Asia to start at the bottom back home... but then, you knew that when leaving. Perhaps the grass wasn't greener? I for one am happy waiting in line rather than racing off to the 3rd world chasing quick progression.

And lets be honest here... no Airlines that I'm aware of, in NZ or AUS, promote solely on seniority. If you can't chin the bar, you don't get promoted.
ElZilcho is online now Report Post Quick reply to this message

People are having trouble connecting the dots so to get an idea of how seniority can protect well paid, professional aviators, I propose this question.

What would have the initial pilots who came to Virgin Blue accepted if a direct entry command was available at Qantas or Ansett 15 years ago? Pay for a training captain was beyond 200K. According to an ex-VB guy he was on 110k and he may have included his superannuation in that figure, and DTA and the soap and pad and pencils he pinched from the hotel and sold on ebay.

Have a think yoose guys. Actually, can some of the VB pilots here go and ask their senior pilots what their price was?

slice

8th Dec 2016, 01:01

Good luck finding VB pilots!

Captain Dart

8th Dec 2016, 02:01

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/china-needs-5-550-new-pilots-a-year-as-travel-soars-boeing-says

neville_nobody

8th Dec 2016, 02:29

Would expatriate Australian pilots return home and fly for 50% less than the current Virgin or Jetstar pilots now? I doubt it..

Soooo all these expats are just a bunch of wingers then and have no real interest in living in Australia?:E

If Australian Airlines offered DE Commands even at 50% of current command salary you would be crashing your servers just trying to keep up with the response. Then that doesn't include all the non citizens with the right to work and abode in Australia. Not to mention everyone the Airline could sponser.

You see what has happened in Aviation in Australia is that the Airlines now view every role in isolation and not as a progression up the tree. They do the same with LAMEs too. So basically they will just go cap in hand to the government saying look there is noone with any command time in our airline we need to sponsor Captains from overseas who have command time.

It would decimate the Aviation Labour Market in this country for the next 20 odd years, by which time you would HAVE to employ expats as noone will be trying to be a pilot anymore.

So yes you are right removing Seniority would increase salaries......in about 2045

Gnadenburg

8th Dec 2016, 07:18

neville

No. The point I was making was that I don't think expatriates would undercut current Australian airline pilots as dramatically as the initial Virgin Blue pilots did. That original cadre of VB guys were a special bunch.

slice

8th Dec 2016, 07:45

Gnadenburg

9th Dec 2016, 02:34

Undercut how ? The company offers employment for x amount and you accept that or you don't. It's the company that set remuneration. The operation wasn't replacing an already existing operation, no picket line was crossed, and no ban was in effect. I am not sure who you think is currently in the top 30 senior positions at VA (VB has been gone almost 6 years) but in fact a good number there now came from Turboprop operations in Australia. A faint but distinct whiff of sour grapes here.

If you trace back the parlous state of pilot wages in Australia there was a watershed moment that set the path forward of low pay and low quality, paid endorsements. It was with the initial cadre of Virgin Blue pilots. Gosh I'm glad I don't know what their low price was but I'd expect these guys may have worked for a less!

Perhaps all is well now, you've taken 15 years of wage growth to get paid what what incumbent domestic and international pilots were paid in 2001.

I don't mind offending anybody here but a peasant low-cost attitude is not going to help anybody if there is a manifestation of a pilot shortage regionally. Pilots like morno feel 300,000 USD is a lot of money, it's just not for what you are liable for and the protections you will see if something goes wrong in a far away land.

IsDon

9th Dec 2016, 05:35

If there is one constant in aviation.

There is always someone willing to do your job cheaper than what you're currently doing it for.

Backstabbing is rife in this industry.

You only need look as far as the Qantas cabin crew to see what happens without some industrial protection. I've lost count of how many seperate awards that cover the one job. Each new one less attractive than the one before. Those on the initial A list think they're a protected species as the vastly inferior terms of their "colleagues" can't possibly affect their careers. Can it??? Feeling nice and cosy right up till the day the redundancy letter arrives.

I, for one, don't want to see this kind of cancer make its way into the pilot's awards. It's one thing to have other companies pay their pilots less, and for that then be a tool industrially to put downward pressure on you own pay packet. It's another thing entirely to have the cancer in your own ranks.

I've spent my first career in the military. No seniority system there. They would have you believe that promotion is merit based. Not true. The old adage was that the RAAF was like dope. The harder you suck, the higher you get.

The seniority system is far from perfect. The alternative is far worse.

maggot

9th Dec 2016, 05:57

But what if you dont... aaah... inhale

morno

9th Dec 2016, 06:39

So tell us Gnads, what are you earning?

Arewegettingjets

9th Dec 2016, 07:31

So tell us Gnads, what are you earning?

Why give the gratification?

Pilot conditions debate could go on forever, fact is what's done is done and you learn from history. Banging on about being a cashed up expat is a very shallow view on life.
I'd rather be happy and poor than rich and miserable.

neville_nobody

9th Dec 2016, 07:38

No. The point I was making was that I don't think expatriates would undercut current Australian airline pilots as dramatically as the initial Virgin Blue pilots did. That original cadre of VB guys were a special bunch.

Well do a straw poll with those you work with and see if they would take a DE Command for 120K?

The difference about being an expat and living in Australia isn't money, it's all the things that you can't actually put a value on.

MACH082

9th Dec 2016, 10:28

Most guys would come home for 120k and then fight to increase the conditions. It's better to be on the inside hat in mouth, than throwing stones from the outside.

clear to land

9th Dec 2016, 12:30

Straw Poll-recent conversations with around a dozen very experienced expats that I work with- to return to Aus 180k will spark interest, but 200 would be much more palatable. Having said that being an expat is a state of mind as much as anything else. The experiences you get, the exposure to the world at large, and the realisation of how naive most Australians are to the world (and how naive we were before we left the sheltered workshop) is in my opinion invaluable. The flip side is that a lot of people struggle with the changes/challenges-even more so if in a relationship and it works for one but not the other. Except for those on LWOP its not a 'try before you buy' experience thus there are risks not faced by remaining in the home country. It doesn't work for everyone, but if it works for you it will be the best decision you ever make. Caveat emptor!

Gnadenburg

9th Dec 2016, 14:05

Most guys would come home for 120k and then fight to increase the conditions. It's better to be on the inside hat in mouth, than throwing stones from the outside.

More than disappointing unless you are suggesting a clever expat with enough taxation credits not to pay tax on that 120K for 5 years + ? Oh yes, right, and fight for an increase in conditions once you have accepted sub-par pay. Bullshi$$.

The difference about being an expat and living in Australia isn't money, it's all the things that you can't actually put a value on.

Yes and no having done both.

donpizmeov

9th Dec 2016, 18:25

I would be bankrupted on 120K if I had to also pay tax. Good starter for an FO though.

Tuck Mach

9th Dec 2016, 18:43

A standard IR play to circumvent contracts and indeed unity is to introduce different scales at each and successive EA 'negotiation'. Generally it will not affect the incumbents only those either new to company or new to fleet. Whilst there are several different contracts in Flight attendant ranks, often on the one aircraft it is myopic to suggest it is not the case at major airlines.

Qantas has different pay scales on the 737
Qantas has Jetconnect pilots doing previously Qantas flying on the 737
The next EA will do the same as it did previously, a new scale for new fleet joiners (selling off the not yet born!)
How may pay scales has CX got these days?

There is a pilot shortage, based purely on aging demographic, aided by IR policies to drive down terms and conditions, stagnate career paths (think Alliance at VAH, Cobham, Jetconnect and of course JQ at Qantas) and of course the cost (barrier to entry), the wages on offer and the return expected.!

The demographics at play affect all western economies. A result of population explosion following World War 2, this has been baked in for a long time now. Ever wonder whilst you in Australia keep seeing the pension age rise, the pressure on Australia's (and most western countries') welfare, hospital and respite care systems will grow as this demographic moves into retirement.

Pilots are a global commodity, there may be a penchant for some Ex-pat Australians to return home and 'undercut' (as implied in other posts) but organised labour have ignored the demographic tsunami , which to me is an epic failure.. The hastily convened 787 contract at Qantas, may prove a low water mark. No wonder Joyce claimed a 30% saving! As the market is global, movements to a new abode en-masse generates a shortage elsewhere.

There remains the demand
The shortage is across all western economies and affects all industries
Birth rates have declined in all western economies in the last decade, meaning economies are not replacing their work forces with sufficient tax serfs!
Certain carriers are now 'testing the market' offering new hires more $, whilst quietly keeping existing pilots on existing conditions.
The supply of new pilots is insufficient by many forecast models to arrest the retirements expected (demographically)

Here area few articles to consider:

https://skift.com/2016/06/30/even-as-pilot-pay-increases-u-s-airlines-fear-pilot-shortage/

https://skift.com/2016/10/14/delta-ceo-theres-no-pilot-shortage-but-were-giving-raises-anyway/

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/opinion-us-pilot-shortage-is-fixable-but-it-will-c-429621/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-29/shrinking-pool-of-future-pilots-keeps-major-airlines-on-edge

American Airlines Combats Pilot Shortage (AAL) | Investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/news/american-airlines-combats-pilot-shortage-aal/)

Southwest Airlines pilots' pay to soar 30 percent by 2020 under newly approved contract | Southwest Airlines | Dallas News (http://www.dallasnews.com/business/southwest-airlines/2016/11/07/southwest-airlines-pilots-overwhelmingly-approve-new-contract)

To me it would appear that fact outweighs opinion. The reality is that globalisation works two-ways. Airlines love when they can't continually drive wedges between work groups, open endless green field operations, import foreigners (457 visa), but sadly they detest that globalisation works two ways and pilots can also arbitrage their skill set internationally.

Pilots are a global commodity and to suggest there is no shortage ignore the structural issues emerging in literally every western economy.

Dark Knight

9th Dec 2016, 22:25

TM: the most thoughtful, factual post yet.

Will those who actually read it see what they are reading, comprehend and understand?

Berealgetreal

10th Dec 2016, 09:09

Expect 457's and cut price, fast track cadet schemes as none of these characters that run these places place any value on skill, experience and education whatsoever. They don't understand it, they haven't lived it, don't bother trying to explain it. We are just a number, they begrudgingly acknowledge our efforts whilst treating our profession with total contempt.

On the plus side, the people I fly with are some of the best people I've ever met and I wouldn't swap a 9 to 5 greasy pole job for a rated take off in a pink fit.

neville_nobody

10th Dec 2016, 12:15

TuckMack there will only ever be a artifical pilot shortage in Australia never a real economic shortage. That is because immigration law blocks potential applicants. If anyone in the world could apply to any position in an Australian Airline there will be a permanent queue around the block as Australia is a desirable place to work.

So from a pure economic theory perspective the pressure will be on airlines in the Middle East. Asian carriers will just keep pumping out locals but the ME airlines don't have the population for that. Australia and NZ are always going to have people moving here.

The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreignors through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.

Also if there is a real worldwide shortage as you say how do you explain Norweigen International who are about to go in and under cut all the US carriers on the Atlantic on a pretty low ball contract.

Tuck Mach

10th Dec 2016, 18:59

Thanks Darkknight,

I was trying to broaden the discussion. There are big forces at play in the Western world, in demographics is destiny!You are most likely correct most will not research and read.

Neville thanks for your opinion as to how it will play out. I don't know exactly what Australia's crop of pathetic political representatives will do.Australia is already hollowed out to real estate interests, quick buck artists and with no cohesive national interest policy it faces a real choice between the USA and the new political overlords in China.

Nonetheless if I were Norwegian management I would expect to try it on too: Their motivation largely the same as any management, minimise cost.

Notwithstanding anything else, supply and demand will be artificially constrained by 457 visas, MPL and any other concoction for a while.Demographics are far bigger than most believe. Everyone's opinions are contextual, based upon their experience and age, mine too. We all tend to see things through our own experience, but this problem, of a lack of skilled workers in aviation, is not confined to any country, it is a global market. Whilst government policy may constrain a market, ultimately it matters little in the longer term. It was brewing from the conclusion of the Second World War, but it is certainly becoming a valid concern for western governments worldwide.. Supply will meet with demand eventually.

What I am trying to show, supported with fact is that all western economies have the same problem. Aging work forces are a symptom of Demographics. Unless you have sufficient echo generations (after the most numeric generation) economic pressures abound as tax revenues fall. You can already see it at play in Australia.

The 'future fund' to create a way to fund previously unfunded yet huge public service pension entitlements.
The raising of the pension age. (keeping older people at work longer)
The rising pressures on the health budget
Aged care coming into focus
Australia's treasurer for the real estate lobby Scott Morrison (he worked at the Property council for nine years) looking at 'budget repair', these cries will become more visible in future budgets. They may even eventually have to reform negative gearing and superannuation concessions, much to the displeasure of the bolted on baby boomers.:D

It isn't just Australia. The USA has similar problems. Many pension funds are under demographic pressure, as redemption rates rise.

Dallas' Police and Fire Pension is running out of money - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/dallas-police-and-fire-pension-is-running-out-of-money-2016-11?IR=T)

The funds require more people paying in than redeeming. Declining birth rates and entitlements promised by governments are often times not funded and simply kicked down the road for the next guy to deal with. This is something politicians excel at.

Aviation is no different to any other market, Oldmeadow and all the IR practitioners will be sweating this stuff as are governments as they wonder how to kick the can to the next guy when the pressure is rising.

There is plenty of factual information out there:

Australia’s Demographic Challenges — A More Flexible and Adaptable Retirement Income System (http://demographics.treasury.gov.au/content/_download/flexible_retirement_income_system/HTML/retirement.asp)

3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2015 (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/featurearticlesbyCatalogue/7A40A407211F35F4CA257A2200120EAA?OpenDocument)

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03.pdf

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/february2016

The BLS (USA), the esteemed ABS in Australia and the ONS in the UK. There is abundant literature explaining the magnitude of the problem.

There is also a lot of information regarding pilot training rates, both in the Asia pacific region, the USA and Europe. Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.

The Asian and the Middle East carriers are also competing in a global market, pilots of required aptitude are expensive to train and may need to increase remuneration further, inducing increased supply. They may do a lot of things that entice supply from Australia, a traditional source of high quality pilots.. It depends how vital (strategic) they deem a pilot to their airlines, something Australian IR practitioners have undermined and indeed pilots themselves in previous decades, but as I alluded to Oldmeadow's context is based on his own experience, changing sides in 1989 and in those days aviation was indeed a more secular business.

Suggesting that pilots will be exempt from those opportunities and confined to Australia, by some bizarre form of protectionism, I think is a little extreme.

Globalisation does work both ways and you may well see further commuting opportunities (contracts) from Australia, into Asia to address their supply concerns. After all, as you quite rightly describe, living in Australia is 'desirable' and perhaps a commuting contract of substance may emerge to address a shortage, that brings Australian employers away from their myopic view of airline pilots and into a global market. :E

Gnadenburg

11th Dec 2016, 01:34

The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreignors through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.

If that's a local pilot shortage I assume it's for regionals and lesser paid Australian flying jobs that would see a need to attract foreign 457 sponsored labour?

There must be two thousand or so Australian expatriate command rated pilots abroad and as Tuck Mach alludes to, it will be creative carriers abroad tapping into the resource with commuting contracts if we truly do have a pilot shortage. Even more creative companies may stem their attrition with Australian bases.

The ATO will be onto loose tax arrangements and residency issues well before any negative gearing reforms BTW.

Dark Knight

11th Dec 2016, 02:43

Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.

Agreed: being partly involved within training the figures already illustrate this. Couple this with CASA's latest brilliant move introducing Part 61 Licencing particularly where great difficulties are found creating/maintaining Instructor Ratings including Simulator Instructor ratings. Where in the past many of these were filled by retired pilots the current hassles and poor remuneration do not make it worth the effort.

The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreigners through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.
If that's a local pilot shortage I assume it's for regionals and lesser paid Australian flying jobs that would see a need to attract foreign 457 sponsored labour?
Already this is increasingly occuring with employers regularly manipulating the scheme. Employers communicate with each other comparing notes how the scheme can be manipulated to their advantage. Couple this with an overworked Department of Immigration and Border Protection failing to vet and check all applications then 457 pilots will increase rapidly. Interestingly, as shown in another thread, their appears to b a steady stream of pilots moving to USA commuter jobs filling shortage experienced there.

neville_nobody

11th Dec 2016, 06:04

Tuck Mach if you read those articles you posted on the so-called US shortage, they are actually referring to the regional airlines who are going to be short not mainline carriers.
Now that situation is not a real pilot shortage but a labour shortage at a particular price point. It actually has more to do with how the US Regionals are structured than it does the supply of pilot Labour. A easy way around that, would be to abolish the Regionals all together and move ALL flying onto the major airline's AOC. If that happened you would find that the so-called labour shortage would go away overnight. Instead the regionals are now trying the foreign labour option.

Personally I think the squeeze will be on the Middle Eastern Carriers, for whom commuting contracts would actually do damage to their local economies and would have very negative local political ramifications.

Guptar

11th Dec 2016, 07:38

I think some of you are arguing about the colour of the suede on the chairs in the first class lounge of the Titanic. Within a lifetime there will be no Australian Airline system. We will have Chinese pilots on $4,000 per month.
We have a generation of under achievers in school, a vast number of which will never be employable. The brightest are now and will continue to head overseas where their skills and knowledge are valued.

Our government, on both sides of the political fence seems hell bent on treason to the people it governs, the very same people that worked to make something of this country.

Only last week I was trying to get dental work for my elderly mother in law, we could pay now the sum of $8,000 or wait a minimum 7 years. Yet the refugee lady in the waiting room who had been in the country a few months was getting it done for free……right now, no waiting. You can be prosecuted for saying that Muslims are bad, but the government cowers when they hold up placards “ kill the unbelievers”. No one has the guts to repeal 18C of the discrimination act, nor the guts to use it when “a certain religion” willfully violates it.

Even corporations are in on the it, sacking people in vast numbers so they could move the office off shore.

You only have to look at the governments own projections out to 50 years of government revenue v income. Social security costs are rising exponentially while revenue from taxes is falling.

Manufacturing in this country is becoming a thing of the past. In 2018 Australia will be the only large 1st world country that does not build cars. The DE-industrialisation of Australia will be almost complete.
Eventually we will run out of minerals, or other countries like Brazil will undercut us. They are already doing that. Digging holes in the ground is one of our few remaining sources of national income. We seem to have dropped the ball in the food game.

Soon after the government will be unable to pay it’s bills. We won’t be able to import anything when the Dollar slides to 35c US. The pain that Greece has been feeling will visit us. We are heading for Bankruptcy, yet post after post on Facebook proclaims that “ we are the best country in the world”. Clear to Land’s post nailed it on the head. Australians are very naive about their past, themselves and the future.

Fred Gassit

11th Dec 2016, 07:50

Interesting you mention dentists, in my part of the country at least, there is an oversupply of them now. Not sure if the schools pumped too many out or too many were imported but it's more competitive than it used to be.

Tuck Mach

11th Dec 2016, 08:58

Guptar,

You may well be right, Australia has been hollowed out. Andrew Robb resigning as a trade minister to pop up a few months later working for the Chinese company Langridge, naturally one of his last official roles was completing a FTA with China.
John Howard rather cleverly, 'stopped the boats' but opened the floodgates to refugees coming by aircraft, with intent to pump property prices. No infrastructure and now Australian cities are gridlocked. Labour continued the racket. Who could forget McFarlane who went from industry minister to a representative of the mineral's council. Of course don't forget that little Persian grub Sam Dastryari, quite comfortably having the Chinese pay a personal bill, step out behind the position of the party..soft power pushes everywhere.

However, short of an implosion, Australia and all western economies face a big problem: Aging work forces, big unfunded entitlements and not a clue how to address it.

Neville you are quite correct, many of the airlines increasing remuneration and struggling for applicants in the USA, feed the majors, the problem they have is who feeds them? This is precisely my point. I would also point out that Southwest is hardly a regional. Neither is Delta. Here is their latest response to this imagined shortage:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/delta-reaches-agreement-in-principle-with-pilots-union-says

Further, taken from the text of one article(my emphasis);

'That looming pilot deficit will soar to 15,000 by 2026, according to a study by the University of North Dakota’s Aviation Department, as more captains reach the mandatory retirement age of 65 and fewer young people choose commercial aviation as a profession. And that’s in an industry where captains on the biggest international jets average more than $200,000 a year -- with some pushing $300,000.
A pilot shortage is already the bane of the often low-paying regional carriers that ferry passengers from smaller airports to hubs operated by American, Delta and other major airlines. That’s worrisome for the major carriers because they typically use the smaller operators as a pipeline for hiring.

QED

Show me a western economy not facing an aging demographic?

E&H

11th Dec 2016, 09:19

Guptar, I thought I was the only one who could see what is plain as the nose on our faces. We are breeding them in Australia faster than we can smother them.

The country is totally apathetic to reality...to paraphrase Lee Kuan Yew "the poor white trash of Asia" is becoming a reality. We have taken away any identity in the name of political correctness and instead of heroics and mateship as witnessed in years past we are now scared of our own shadow, cowed and beaten we are in complete denial.

You are right, it is nothing short of treason, validated by 10 years of completely incompetent governments led by shallow vacillating leaders.

Tuck Mach

11th Dec 2016, 19:29

No E&H you are not alone.
A political class of party hacks, the parliament infested with lawyers, self important smug and corrupted.
A smug boom generation comfortable in rising house prices, funded by dirty Chinese fiat, taking health care cards and pensions as 'entitlements' (whilst sitting on huge unrealised capital gain) their children saddled with debt can't find a job. I remember sloppy Joe Hockey telling Australians to get a better job. This is repeated in the west too: Economies hollowed out by globalisation enriching a few at the expense of the many. What happened to society?

I am glad I am not part of it.

It will be funny to watch those political (and I use the term deliberately) 'elite' deal with a rising China, owning chunks of our country versus our obligations under ANZUS should Trump push back in the South China sea. Marriage plebiscite anyone? :(

So I would fully expect the trend to continue 457 visas and regulatory capture to be the norm. Fortunately many pilots will have alternatives elsewhere and perhaps strategically clever foreign carriers will look to Australia to derive their required supply and good commuting contracts or indeed an Australian basing pops up...:ok:

Gnadenburg

11th Dec 2016, 23:38

Tuck

Your last post is difficult to follow and twists about from a politics of envy to the politics of entitlement. Geo-politics in the South Chine Sea for another time and deserves expansion beyond an activation of the ANZUS treaty.

You really do take issue with Australian property and in this post you sway toward the envious side of politics inferring a capital gains tax on the family home? Now, most Australian pilots should own their own home by retirement and having been paid tax their working life it's rubbish to slug a CGT or forced sale as part of an access to retirement benefits.

Often, the debate on rising house prices and negative gearing is loudest from those who are not players, and fail to understand the significant benefits to the economy. They also fail to understand the balance sheets of many property investors where there is modest advantage in negative gearing but this policy does provide incentive to provide housing to other important areas of the economy such as tourism or the foreign education market. Foreign investment is a positive and will need to be sustained unless costs of welfare and other high-cost government budget expenditure addressed. As an expat, I don't take issue with somebody coming to Australia, buying a house that pumps huge taxes into government coffers and often living a self-funded happy ever-after. As opposed to taking in illiterate refugees, from parts of the world that require social integration at a cost even this country can't really afford if done properly.

But back to the pilot shortage. Cost of living rises in Australia and rises of living standards in the developing world may put a lid on the attraction of Australia as a place for foreign pilots and the 457 visa. I've noticed this since being abroad. Years ago, there was plenty of interest in Australia as a destination, whereas now, there is more attraction in a basing and setting up for retirement for example, in somewhere like Phuket. The commuting contract market is always interesting, yet to be harnessed, as is eventual basings and talking of the failings of Australian politics, perhaps there should be more incentives or push for foreign carriers to base crew in Australia.

Tuck Mach

12th Dec 2016, 08:50

Gnad,

My observations are commentary of a political malaise that infects Australia. I remove my own bias (generational) and am worried for the future of the country. I equally fear for Gen Y, millenials, and the aged. I do not worry for the war boom generation. They represent a large voter block, it follows political decisions will favour those voter blocks! We can debate the welfare spend another day, the demographics, revenue effects and tax base distortions another time! I do however think that expectations people have will be met when expectations meet fiscal reality. Hyman Minsky might well be quoted when it happens!

We are in furious agreement however over the pilot shortage. Australia is very expensive in all metrics. With stagnant real wages and declining living standards, the politicians may well laud increasing GDP, but they neglect to mention the per capita bit.( That bit is falling.)

As such, I think, given as others alluded to part 61, expensive training and low remuneration drove people away from the industry. Supply was further choked. Those remaining, qualified, experienced and denied a career, may yet find that strategically clever airlines, find their supply in Australia. I would be interested to see the Qantas, Virgin et al response were a substantial carrier set up a base here, or facilitate 'game changing' commuting contract. My hunch and hope is that we find out.

rodney rude

12th Dec 2016, 19:46

Get Keating back in power. A guy with balls and far from clueless.

IsDon

13th Dec 2016, 01:04

Get Keating back in power. A guy with balls and far from clueless.

Yeah.

Bring back the "recession we had to have", rampant inflation and 18% interest rates. That'll work.

Why not resurrect Gough while your at it if you really want to screw the country for an ideology?

pilotchute

13th Dec 2016, 04:35

Let's have another pointless stimulus that achieved nothing other than lifting the sales of big TV's

sealear

13th Dec 2016, 19:20

Gerry Harvey wasn't complaining :ugh:

MACH082

14th Dec 2016, 00:59

Neither was the low cost carriers and Balinese :)

Duck Pilot

14th Dec 2016, 19:32

The shortage of experienced pilots suitable for check and training/chief pilot roles in GA is becoming a major headache for some operators, particularly for the operators using turbines and with CAR 217 approvals.

Similar problems at the regional airline level as well from what I hear.

DeltaT

15th Dec 2016, 07:20

Use the Emirates principle:

Pay the money, and they will come

Duck Pilot

15th Dec 2016, 08:10

Keep the missionaries and misfits away and let us mercenaries dictate.

Pay peanuts, get monkeys.

pilotchute

15th Dec 2016, 08:15

Use the Emirates principle:

Pay the money, and they will come

Sometimes just having realistic minimum experience will do the trick. I know for checking roles and CP roles there are regulatory mins but some of the ads list experience required on 4+ aircraft and the obligitory space shuttle landing.

Its just like the industry I'm in now. Company owners don't want to train anyone but expect you to work for $20 an hour.

Dark Knight

16th Dec 2016, 01:19

QantasLink on hunt for its next pilots

QantasLink pilot Arika Malony is looking to transfer to Qantas main-line operations.

The Australian 12:00AM December 16, 2016

Qantas’s regional airline QantasLink is on a hiring spree as some of its pilots shift to the carrier’s main-line operation in preparation for the introduction of the Boeing Dreamliner to its fleet next year.

The regional airline is on the hunt for entry-level, first officer, and captain positions as some of its existing roster of pilots begin transitioning over to Qantas to fill out its ranks.

QantasLink, which employs 420 pilots, has long been considered an academy for Qantas, where the regional carrier’s best and brightest pilots (???) often move on to the bigger aircraft in its main-line fleet.

A Qantas spokeswoman said there was no target for the number of pilots to be hired through this recruitment round, but that the airline would take a flexible approach depending on the range of candidates it received applications from. (Read including 457 Visa recruiting???)

“As a guide, we’re looking to offer 16 to 20 positions on each planned ground school across a range of levels: trainees, first officers and captains,” she said.

“It’s significant compared to previous recruitment programs. The last time we recruited for QantasLink pilots was in 2013 and it was limited to between four and eight pilots on each ground school.”

One such QantasLink pilot who could soon be shifting over to Qantas main line is Arika Malony, who is currently going through assessment with the airline.

Ms Malony has been with QantasLink for six years and said it was the perfect training ground for her career as a pilot.

“The training that they give you, not just online but in the simulator, the program they have in place and the instructors they have got certainly enables you to broaden your mindset and allows you to adapt to different situations,” she said.

“It’s also been a really wonderful work life balance over the past six years for me. We do our share of overnights but we certainly don’t go flying through the night, which is nice for the body clock.”

Ms Malony joined QantasLink when she was 25. Her first job with the airline was as a first officer on one of QantasLink’s Q400 Bombardier Dash 8 turboprop aircraft.

The recruitment drive from QantasLink comes as both Qantas’s main-line operation and its budget carrier Jetstar are also on hiring sprees. More than 500 hopefuls from Australia and overseas applied for the 170 pilot positions Qantas aims to fill over the next three years as it begins taking delivery of its Boeing 787s from October.

The recruitment drive, announced earlier this year, is the first time since 2009 Qantas has opened up new flying opportunities to external candidates.

Qantas is going through the final stages of its selection process before on-board training starts next month. The first of the new recruits are expected to be ready for duty by May.

It is expected that most of the new recruits will be brought on as second officers for Qantas’s A330 fleet.

Jetstar plans to boost its pilot ranks by 50 over the next two years. Jetstar’s recruitment drive for Australia-based pilots will boost its overall pilot ranks from 800 to about 850 by 2018.

Italics my comment

Going Nowhere

16th Dec 2016, 01:35

QantasLink, which employs 420 pilots, has long been considered an academy for Qantas, where the regional carrier’s best and brightest pilots often move on to the bigger aircraft in its main-line fleet.

A Qantas spokeswoman said there was no target for the number of pilots to be hired through this recruitment round, but that the airline would take a flexible approach depending on the range of candidates it received applications from.

“As a guide, we’re looking to offer 16 to 20 positions on each planned ground school across a range of levels: trainees, first officers and captains,” she said.

My Italics... :suspect:

Dark Knight

16th Dec 2016, 02:03

“As a guide, we’re looking to offer 16 to 20 positions on each planned ground school across a range of levels: trainees, first officers and captains,” she said.

Read including 457 Visa recruiting???

VH-FTS

16th Dec 2016, 02:18

Are the captains for Jetstar NZ (Regional) or for Qlink?

Going Nowhere

16th Dec 2016, 03:25

There's no direct entry commands at QLink currently.

More than enough suitable FO's

neville_nobody

16th Dec 2016, 04:00

QantasLink, which employs 420 pilots, has long been considered an academy for Qantas, where the regional carrier’s best and brightest pilots often move on to the bigger aircraft in its main-line fleet.

No sure how the word 'often' snuck through the fact checker!

Maybe the author should ask why are there so many QLink pilots at carriers other than Qantas!

Captain Nomad

16th Dec 2016, 04:23

Dors anyone else remember when, if employed at Easterns it was almost a guaranteed 'NO' for a jump across to mainline?

Dark Knight

16th Dec 2016, 21:55

GN: There's no direct entry commands at QLink currently.

More than enough suitable FO's

Why then are QLink advertising for 457 Visa pilots overseas?

Bankrupt84

17th Dec 2016, 00:06

GN:

Why then are QLink advertising for 457 Visa pilots overseas?

Can you show me where they are advertising?

I am curious.

VH-FTS

17th Dec 2016, 02:17

Can you show me where they are advertising?

I am curious.

Are the 457s for FO positions or captains. The current 457s from South Africa went in as FOs.

I'd imagine any DEC into Qlink would only cause more displeasure amongst the troops and increase the exodus.

framer

17th Dec 2016, 04:24

I can't believe there were not enough qualified people in Australia to become dash 8 f/o's that 457 visa's have been used.

Berealgetreal

17th Dec 2016, 05:42

Didn't stop VARA.

CurtainTwitcher

17th Dec 2016, 06:19

I can't believe there were not enough qualified people in Australia to become dash 8 f/o's that 457 visa's have been used

I can't believe there were not enough qualified dash 8 f/o's (in Australia) that 457 visa's have to be used

See the subtlety? Qualified dash 8 f/o's are in short supply. Of course they are in short supply, because very few can afford to do a speculative endorsement without the reasonable prospect of a job. Hence there is rarely a large pool of qualified and current individuals sitting around just waiting for a job to pop up.

Importing labour is a "two-fa" for an employer. It increase the supply, driving down price and it creates a visa holder beholden to their sponsor with a compliant and acquiescent attitude. In short, it magnifies the power over employees as a job loss means no visa.

I'm sure some employers would love to have their entire workforce on 457's. By specifying the EXACT qualification &/or recency/experience required means the available pool of Australian's available who meet the criteria is very small, therefore justifying employing 457's.

Not saying this is the case here, just musing about hypothetical possibilities.

neville_nobody

17th Dec 2016, 06:46

And that is why there won't be a pilot shortage in Australia, as the government is open to stunts like this to be pulled and there will always be people who are willing to move to Australia and undercut or take low-ball wages, as it is way better here than where they are coming from.

Chocks Away

17th Dec 2016, 09:57

keepitrealok

17th Dec 2016, 10:26

many Aussies o/s don't come back because they refuse to be treated like dickheads & disrespected by the HR Departments

You think that trait is exclusive to Australian Aviation? It isn't - it's worldwide.

I'd hazard a guess that the overwhelming majority of Australian pilots that choose not to return don't come back because they would have to start at the bottom of the seniority list, forced change in rank, and thus, take a substantial pay cut to do so.

:ok:

donpizmeov

17th Dec 2016, 12:29

They are Defo interviewing South African pilots for Qlink. Three year contract no citizenship at end. Wide bodied Captains being offered FO positions.

MACH082

17th Dec 2016, 12:39

Yep, there are quite a few wide bodied captains floating around.

OnceBitten

17th Dec 2016, 20:15

I'd hazard a guess that the overwhelming majority of Australian pilots that choose not to return don't come back because they would have to start at the bottom of the seniority list, forced change in rank, and thus, take a substantial pay cut to do so.

Does that apply to you Keepitrealok?? :p:p

Kelly Slater

17th Dec 2016, 21:58

There are 167,000 workers on 457 visas in Australia right now. I have seen statistics that show two out of three skilled Australian jobs are filled by foreign workers, jobs that should be filled by training Australians. It is a disgrace. The use of 457 visas in Aviation is just the tip of the rather pathetic iceberg that is so short-sightedly taken advantage of for short term gain by employers and politicians alike.

Dark Knight

17th Dec 2016, 22:22

BankRupt: Vancouver/Canada maybe elsewhere.

Highlighting or Italics (comment) mine.

How do these employment conditions compare to an Australian employee?

If you currently live Darwin/Perth/Broken Hill/etc. do you get all of these?

Anyone wanting a copy of the original PM with email me and will send as attachment.

DK

Oantaslink
D¡rect Entry First Off¡cer

Salary and Benef¡ts
Along with offering great lifestyle opportunities, QantasLink also offers employees a range of benefits and attractive salary.
Below is information relating to pay and employee benefits across all major bases such as Brisbane, Cairns,
Adelaide, Melbourne, Mildura and Sydney.
Q300 (2000+ Hours)
First Officer Salary - 566,085 to 68,307.00 per annum
Q400 (2000+ Hours)
First Officer Salary - SlO,ltO to 73,088.00 per annum
Additional pay is provided for Duty Hours (DHA)
DHA= S0.gO per hour. On average First Officers are paid 30-40 hours per week on top of salary.
Total salary S8S,OOO - St00,000 per annum (superannuation inclusive)

Meal Allowance/ Overnight Allowance
ln addition you will be paid a meal and overnight allowance for some duties
Superannuation
Superannuation is a way to save for your retirement. The money comes from contributions made by your employer. Qantaslink pay superannuation as part of your salary package on top of your monthly wage of 9.5% to 10% paid directly into your designated super fund.
Staff Travel
Qantas Group has excellent staff travel options available to employees after six months of permanent employment. Staff travel includes immediate family and up to two additional friend or family member residing in Australian or outside of Australia.

Relocation Ass¡stance
Candidates who are successful for any of the Sydney/Brisbane based 300/400 Tech Crew positions will be eligible to receive relocation assistance. A summary of the benefits is listed below.

lmmigration
The Company will arrange and cover the cost of obtaining 457 visas for candidate and eligible accompanying family
members, including OR excluding medical checks and police checks. 457 visas are valid for four years and can be renewed.

Temporary Accommodation
The Company will cover the cost of temporary accommodation for a period up to 21 nights, in either home and/or host location.
Relocation Travel
The candidate and accompanying family will receive a one way free of charge trip from host location (nearest Qantas port) to new location on Qantas group. Travel by most direct route and no stop overs permitted.
Excess Baggage Waiver
The candidate is eligible for 100kgs of accompanied baggage on Qantas flights only

Removal of Personal Household Goods and Shipping
The Company will cover the cost of packing, removal and consignment of the candidate's household effects to the new location with the Company's preferred removalist, Crown Relocations to the value of AUDS2000
Single/Couple candidate: up to 5 cbm OR 20ft container sea freight
Family size: up to 10 cbm OR 40ft container sea freight
Certain exclusions apply: including pets, cars, items that do not fit in standard load container, etc
The candidate will be responsible for all lmport, Customs, Excise & Quarantine charges
Transit time door to door for Sea Freight would be approx. L2 weeks
lncome Tax Briefing
The Company will cover the cost of a tax briefing with Ernst & Young in both home and host location, in
order for the candidate to discuss the tax implications of the relocation to Australia.
Health lnsurance
It is a condition of employment that the employee and their accompanying family take out appropriate private health insurance for the duration of their employment as a temporary resident of Australia.

We look forward to in detail iscussing your application in more
Please contact Emma Cattell in the Qantaslink Recruitment Team if you have
any questions.
Emma Cattell
Talent Acquisition Specialist
Talent Acquisition: People Services: Qantas Airways Limited

Tz +67 3867 3168 Email:
************************************************************ **

Talent Acquisition Specialist
Talent Acquisition: People Services

Don't you just enjoy how they are more interested in themselves instead of the employees?

Dark Knight

17th Dec 2016, 23:06

The one peeping from behind the curtains (CurtainTwitcher) accurately summarises it.

Qualified dash 8 f/o's are in short supply. Of course they are in short supply, because very few can afford to do a speculative endorsement without the reasonable prospect of a job. Hence there is rarely a large pool of qualified and current individuals sitting around just waiting for a job to pop up.

Importing labour is a "two-fa" for an employer. It increase the supply, driving down price and it creates a visa holder beholden to their sponsor with a compliant and acquiescent attitude. In short, it magnifies the power over employees as a job loss means no visa.

I'm sure some employers would love to have their entire workforce on 457's. By specifying the EXACT qualification &/or recency/experience required means the available pool of Australian's available who meet the criteria is very small, therefore justifying employing 457's.

Employers are manipulating, abusing and rorting the 457 Visa system submitting applications to the Immigration and Border Protection Department system created with the appearance of compliance however, fully designed to circumvented the system.

This seriously disadvantages Australian Citizens within their Home country where an overworked, stressed Immigration and Border Protection Department is unable, incapable of or unwilling to properly, fully and comprehensively validate each and every application.

Unless each and everyone one of us writes, emails or telephone calls their Local Federal MP including each and everyone's Senators within their State strongly requesting the Department of Immigration and Border Protection promptly, comprehensively and thoroughly investigate each and every 457 Visa application ensuring all totally complies with the intent and spirit of the Legislation, nothing will change.

Dinner table, Bar oratory, PPRune posts whilst highly entertaining, achieve little!

mcgrath50

18th Dec 2016, 01:24

There are 167,000 workers on 457 visas in Australia right now. I have seen statistics that show two out of three skilled Australian jobs are filled by foreign workers, jobs that should be filled by training Australians.

While 457 visas are a rort this stat doesn't pass the sniff test. Are you saying 2/3rds of skilled jobs in Australia = 167,000? That means that there is only 250,500 skilled jobs in all of Australia, with a population of over 20 million people?

ExtraShot

18th Dec 2016, 02:48

The ideal change to this 457 rort is to mandate that for every 457 used (or even for every two used, say, just to soften the economics a little bit), requires one Tafe or University Graduate, Paid Intern, who is an Australian Citizen to be employed as a trainee at the same time.

The idea behind 457's is supposedly to support industries that have a skill shortage. Those industries should be putting just as much effort into removing said skills shortage themselves. When there is mutual obligation behind the use of 457's, watch their usage rapidly go back to what it was meant to be.

Roj approved

18th Dec 2016, 04:02

Time to start lobbying your federal MP, the more this can be highlighted to them, the more chance we have of stopping this. Also, contact your Union, see what they can do.

If we don't fight this, it'll continue and all the bargaining power we have will disappear.

neville_nobody

18th Dec 2016, 04:14

Not really, NN... many Aussies o/s don't come back because they refuse to be treated like dickheads & disrespected by the HR Departments, who have ruined the industry.
It's a Pilot's Market around the globe right now (for those with legit logbooks/Quals & unfraudelent experience)!

Exactly and Australia is a desirable place to live. 457 Visas open the Australian market to the world not just Australian Citizens and permanent residents. How good does living in Australia look to someone working in Africa right now? Or South America?

Here is the problem, Australia will always be a desirable place to live and raise children to anyone from a third world country. All of whom have airlines who are probably getting paid less than anyone in Australia.

Additional to that is the South African government's policy of positive discrimination which makes it hard for educated white folk to be pilots so they start looking abroad.

So if we actually get to a real labour shortage the floodgates will be opened to the world and the problem will go away overnight.

Tuck Mach

18th Dec 2016, 06:34

Roj stated,

Time to start lobbying your federal MP, the more this can be highlighted to them, the more chance we have of stopping this. Also, contact your Union, see what they can do.

Roj, both major parties, the NXT and even the greens support big 'Australia'; continued immigration on aircraft whilst continually telling you they stopped the boats! (that is the real refugees).

The wages 'Accord' in the Hawke Keating era was designed to lower the real wage over time, thereby making Australia more 'competitive'. It was an interesting process, with a much modified CPI and nominal pay increases linked to the new CPI, most workers fell behind as real inflation was much higher.

457 visas are yet another instrument to keep pressure on wages and no politician of the modern crop of 'intellectual genius' will do a thing. Most of them are big property owners, so more population means more for them!

As for pilot unions, whilst certain labour unions (aviation) pushed back hard, at least one ignored the Skilled Occupations List and that is the reason in part that Aeroplane Pilot is on the list.

Whilst I agree with NN that Australia remains a desirable place to work, the market does not work in a vacuum, there is more and more data supporting a genuine, demographic based skills shortage.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/opinion/sunday/plenty-of-passengers-but-where-are-the-pilots.html?_r=1

Employers will keep trying, sparing no expense not to raise terms and conditions, certain ME carriers will raise quietly remuneration for new hires, as one is doing now but demand will be met when supply rises. Supply rises on the back of rising prices (salary)

As the President of ALPA states:
“The real problem the industry is facing is young people aren’t making the decision to become an airline pilot,” said Capt. Tim Canoll, a Delta pilot and president of the ALPA. “It takes a very motivated person to meet the physical, emotional and intellectual challenge of becoming a pilot, and that same motivated person does the math looking at what it takes and the return on investment, and it just doesn’t add up,” particularly when training costs alone can reach $150,000.

So give it time and you may well see, strategically thinking Asian carriers decide an Australian basing or genuine commuting contracts are a way to solve their supply. Globalisation in a vacuum benefits one side, but in the piloting profession where pilots are a commodity, the market is very much global. :ok:

Dark Knight

19th Dec 2016, 02:02

Much of that which is written here is correct as is the thoughts espoused by Tuck Mach about the history.

Particularly Employers will keep trying, sparing no expense not to raise terms and conditions which is why pilots (and others within the aviation industry) need to get the pen out, the phones ringing berating your local MP and Senators.

If we do not no one else will but the employers will continue to circumvent, abuse and manipulate the rule/system any way they can for THEIR , and ONLY THEIR benefit!

The AFAP are well and truly aware what is going on however, write ring or email the President, the Executive Director, your local council members today, not tomorrow, TODAY!

President AFAP: CAPTAIN DAVID BOOTH 03 9928 5737
Executive Director: SIMON LUTTON 03 9928 5737
Email: [email protected]
AFAP: https://www.afap.org.au/contact

Equally, get on the phone, lift the pen or email your local MP and Senators.

Members ? Parliament of Australia (http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Members)

The only people who will help you are yourselves and it is your Jobs!

Berealgetreal

19th Dec 2016, 02:46

457's+Cadet Schemes=no pilot shortage.

Dark Knight

19th Dec 2016, 02:58

BeReal; a pity you appear unable to to take your own advice: 457 Visas only if we sit on our behinds not lifting a finger to ensure the Legislation is adhered to as it is written.

The rules and references are all here if you have not already read them:
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1CHZL_enAU722AU722&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=457%20visas (https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1CHZL_enAU722AU722&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=457%20visas)

And as Capt Tim Carrol wrote: Capt. Tim Canoll, a Delta pilot and president of the ALPA. “It takes a very motivated person to meet the physical, emotional and intellectual challenge of becoming a pilot, and that same motivated person does the math looking at what it takes and the return on investment, and it just doesn’t add up,” particularly when training costs alone can reach $150,000.

Exactly the same applies here: when the number of applicants is assessed with the numbers required plus the numbers successfully completing training it `ain't' going to solve any shortage let alone a worldwide shortage.

Berealgetreal

19th Dec 2016, 05:15

Dark Knight, you appear to be making assumptions.

Dark Knight

19th Dec 2016, 09:08

No assumptions; appropriate paperwork with the Immigration Department for processing, the minister, my local MP, Senators and more with follow up. Also contacted the AFAP and more.

Have absolute proof of a manipulation, abuse of the system/legislation by at least one employer, QLink have advertised not training or upgrading Australians and there is more than anecdotal evidence of more in various other parts of the Australia.

Reading the replies, posts here almost all agree with the impending shortage of pilots as does the evidence from Boeing, Airbus. ALPA and many more.

Have some first hand knowledge of cadets training, the success and dropout rate.

Have you actually read the migration Legislation and Rules a indicated above?

Have you written, phoned or emailed your MP, Senators or the AFAP?

neville_nobody

19th Dec 2016, 12:42

The argument as it did with Skywest will come down to type ratings. If you have 5000 hours and check and training approvals on a ATR not a Dash 8 QLink will argue you are not suitable as you don't have Dash 8 time.

The companies are getting around the experience levels by viewing flight time in isolation not as a whole.

Unless you have a good counter argument for the government I don't see how such things will be stopped.

Captain Nomad

19th Dec 2016, 14:08

If a Doctor has had experience with Draeger Oxylog 3000 ventilators and goes to a hospital where they have Philips Respironics ventilators, it does not mean that the Doctor is no longer suitable for the job of being a Doctor looking after a patient on life support.

Somehow the decision makers would need to be able to see the issue here with pilots. A pilot has a skill set that can be applied across a variety of equipment (with appropriate associated training). Even if overall experience can be explained away and discounted they must surely be made to see that there is 'comparable' experience that should not be discounted when assessing candidates. The devil is in the detail...

CurtainTwitcher

19th Dec 2016, 20:08

surely be made to see that there is 'comparable' experience that should not be discounted when assessing candidates
Unfortunately you assume that the the wilfully blind actually want to see. They will not made to see. As long as there is a bureaucratic box ticking "process" that provides a fig leaf of cover, it will be have been justified. It is trivial to demonstrate the time & cost to endorse a non type-rated pilot vs an already type-rated 457.

Globalisation is working exactly as planned, the full implications were hidden from the public. Stage one was cheap products produced by third world labour. The second stage is in now blooming, third world labour moving to the first world.

There have been a few prominent voices along the way that have let the cat out of the bag in the early 1990's - Jimmy Goldsmith did an interview with Charlie Rose in 1994 on GATT (the forerunner to the WTO World Trade Organisation), the second was Ross Perot debating Al Gore on NAFTA in the US 1993 Presidential Election. In both cases they said that developed countries labour would be devastated. This has indeed turned out to be the case.

If you want a true insight into the processes that were unleashed more that 25 years ago it behooves you to watch these two videos in full. Once you have the process will be clear - the destination is third world labour rates in the first world.

This process is what I believe has led to the phenomenon of BREXIT, Trump ITEXIT and our own political instability within the two main parties as well as the rise of independent / third party candidates in the Senate.

Dark Knight is right on the money by contacting the politicians. Remind them of the political instability of the post Howard era in Australian politics, there are no longer many certainties and the mood of the public is turning. Remind them of what has gone on in the US, Britain & Italy. Remind them that the voters will no longer be told what to do, remind them that there are fewer and fewer "rusted-on" voters and most of all remind them that until they start to genuinely start looking out for their own countryman they can expect a groundswell of political backlash. There is of course one aviation Senator from SA that has already capitalised on this change in mood.

Few politician have any genuine principles and above all fear losing their seats and the associated power and gravy train. Convince them that THEIR jobs are at risk. There have been enough demonstrations that electorates world wide are waking up and will use the ballot box to enact bloodless revolutions.

If you are short on time, the James Goldsmith interview is the one to watch (56 minutes).
Charlie Rose: Sir James Goldsmith Interview - 15.11.94 (https://youtu.be/wwmOkaKh3-s)
wwmOkaKh3-s

1993 NAFTA debate: Al Gore vs Ross Perot Full debate (https://youtu.be/0fi8OOAKuGQ) (42 minutes)
0fi8OOAKuGQ

neville_nobody

20th Dec 2016, 00:10

Somehow the decision makers would need to be able to see the issue here with pilots. A pilot has a skill set that can be applied across a variety of equipment (with appropriate associated training). Even if overall experience can be explained away and discounted they must surely be made to see that there is 'comparable' experience that should not be discounted when assessing candidates. The devil is in the detail...

However the problem with aviation is that it is independently regulated by CASA whom would by prior rulings, it would appear, agree with the airline's position.

Doctor's are self regulated so they can actually have some influence in their own profession. If an independent regulator moved in to control doctors I would bet that all of a sudden there would be more restrictions put on doctors and suddenly they would need a similar 'endorsement' system to touch everything in a hospital.

Hence why the AMA would move heaven and earth to prevent any form of independent regulation in medicine.

Dark Knight

20th Dec 2016, 01:14

Neville; you may well be correct however, if all we continue to do is create and make excuses, adopt an attitude of resignation, appeasement then we will continue to get rolled again and again.

Positive action by as many as possible as dictated previously here by all will achieve far more the PPRune posts or bar oratory.

Pilots did not achieve their positions, survive day to day with excuses and negativity but with decisive, positive action.

How about applying some more of this to protect our jobs?

AuzPilot

3rd May 2017, 22:03

To revive a old thread, the airline that I fly for is losing pilots faster than we can train them. Most are leaving to fly for Qantas and Jetstar, which apparently are looking for 400 and 200 pilot positions respectively!! These are incredible numbers, if true for a small market in Australia. Will Cadet programs solve the shortage? Can a cadet ever become a Captain on a large aircraft with all the requirements of Part61 licencing requirements? Here is just one of many internet sites advertising worldwide pilot jobs,
https://www.pilotcareercentre.com/Pilot-Job-Navigator

Derfred

4th May 2017, 14:49

Apart from the ATPL licence test, what has Part 61 introduced that would make it any harder for a cadet to eventually become a Captain?

BNEA320

5th May 2017, 06:37

the massive recession we're heading into might take care of any pilot shortage. More OZ pilots heading offshore shortly ?

Icarus2001

5th May 2017, 07:32

the massive recession we're heading into might take care of any pilot shortage.Have you got any factual trends to back up your belief in a recession or just the Facebook headlines?

busdriver007

5th May 2017, 07:50

The Land Newspaper:

Rex faces testing times for pilots
The major NSW regional air carrier Regional Express (Rex) Airlines has indicated it may have to cut services from the flow-on effect of the 457 visa changes. Rex says it is forced to bring in skilled pilots because it's own trained pilots are being poached by other airlines.
Rex Chief Operating Officer, Neville Howell, said that the 457 scheme allowed airlines to fill the void when pilots were poached, allowing their survival. "Rex is still obliged to recruit overseas as the rate of poaching by the larger carriers is simply staggering" he said.
The new changes will strip aeroplane pilots and aircraft maintenance engineers from the allowable four-year list.

clack100

5th May 2017, 07:57

The Trans Tasman Agreement should be cancelled. There are so many New Zealand pilots in Australia taking our jobs. For years before we had the HELP scheme, their government funded their full CPL so they could come to Australia and work for their first job and never pay it off.

It's so much of a joke now you regularly hear Aussie GA operators referred to as "Air New Zealand". Once they get in, they hire their NZ mates.

The barrier to entry to gain a NZ licence and chase non-existent jobs over there is much harder than it is for them to come here.

Why hasn't anyone ever brought this up?

Seriously? Come on over and listen to the Aussie accents on the radio with Jetstar jet and prop. There's Kiwis that would like those jobs!

Duck Pilot

5th May 2017, 08:37

Anyone who believes that there isn't currently a shortage of experienced pilots on the hunt for a job is on another planet.

About time us pilots had the upper hand, pay us what we deserve or push your machines to the fence and put a for sale sign on them is my answer to any operator who isn't willing to treat their pilots well.

I and a lot of other pilots have worked our gut's out for years, been paid ****, lived in remote areas, been treated like **** by employers on occasions and been sacked - in my case sacked twice by two busted arse GA companies who were subsequently shut down by CASA.

Don't ask me what I'm doing now, because you won't believe me.

neville_nobody

5th May 2017, 09:43

Rex says it is forced to bring in skilled pilots because it's own trained pilots are being poached by other airlines.

Ha that's hilarious. I love the hypocrisy of management...

I would love to hear his explanation of how that actually works

framer

5th May 2017, 09:48

You have to tell us now Duck. If you don't I'm going to start a rumour that you're HR.

Duck Pilot

5th May 2017, 10:25

I'm not flying, but flying got me to where I am now because I diversified my career and got out of my comfort zone. I'm no longer directly employed in the industry although I might do a bit of flying in my time off for ****s and giggles.

framer

5th May 2017, 20:05

Duck Pilot is Geoffrey Thomas :)

Chris2303

6th May 2017, 00:03

The Trans Tasman Agreement should be cancelled. There are so many New Zealand pilots in Australia taking our jobs. For years before we had the HELP scheme, their government funded their full CPL so they could come to Australia and work for their first job and never pay it off.

It's so much of a joke now you regularly hear Aussie GA operators referred to as "Air New Zealand". Once they get in, they hire their NZ mates.

The barrier to entry to gain a NZ licence and chase non-existent jobs over there is much harder than it is for them to come here.

Why hasn't anyone ever brought this up?

Absolutely! A great idea!

Jetstar can take their A320s and their Q300s and b****r off.

And then of course QF can be banned from NZ and NZ can be banned from Australia. Then QF can be banned from the NZ oceanic FIR which will stop the SYD-SCL flights and minimise best routings between Australia and the USA.

Protectionism anyone?

pill

6th May 2017, 01:08

Let me guess Plugga, your a pole dancer?

BNEA320

6th May 2017, 06:58

Have you got any factual trends to back up your belief in a recession or just the Facebook headlines?your kidding right ?? Real estate developers/builders/speculators are going belly up left right & centre. It's going to be a bad one. We had to have it though. Everyone thinks they should be paid a $1000 an hour for doing SFA & everyone thinks their ****ty little house is worth $2m. Reality is coming home fast.

Airlines have just started dumping seats at Xmas. Just saw online, an $1100ish return airfare SYD/LAX direct, departing late December. This is when airfares are meant to be very high.

Piltdown Man

6th May 2017, 07:15

I can not believe that there can ever, ever be a shortage of First Officers in Oz. Given that your average turbo-prop and jet are pretty simple things to learn to fly, not cheap but simple, I can not see why outsiders have to be brought in. After all the rest of the world (ex. USA) trains up 200 hour sprogs. I could see a case for temporary captains for a new start-up or a company that is expanding faster than the local system can provide them, but even then this should only be for a few years. I feel for the guys who see these positions going elsewhere.

PM

TBM-Legend

6th May 2017, 08:32

I don't want to fly with two new space cadets up front.

Insurance companies play a major role in pilot experience and they hold the cards. No insurance, no fly...

Ret Sabala

6th May 2017, 08:59

Hey Framer ask Duck Pilot about his Kidston flight one dark night; that is if really is who you say he is. Ha ha lucky it was two crew hey JT
Lucky he went into journalism is all I can say.
Ret.

PoppaJo

6th May 2017, 09:54

Cadet schemes are fantastic for boosting numbers and solving short term problems but a previous employer I worked at got caught out, they had a continued stream of Captains leaving very quickly and they actually ran out of internally suitably experience FOs to upgrade. They had to cancel flights. Great news if your a regional FO, upgrade could be just around the corner.

Pilot Shortages could be company induced also. I was part of a mob (Airbus) once who cut pilot pay by 10% to fund a decline in profits. Half the pilots left cost the company ten fold it was going to save in labour and cancelled half the flights. They paid foreign pilots some incredible figures to assist getting flights operational again. That pilot shortage took about 2-3 years to level out.

Chris2303

6th May 2017, 21:10

Airlines have just started dumping seats at Xmas. Just saw online, an $1100ish return airfare SYD/LAX direct, departing late December. This is when airfares are meant to be very high.

Prices are high up to Christmas Eve.

Over the past few years they have dropped from Christmas Day onwards

BNEA320

7th May 2017, 03:57

Prices are high up to Christmas Eve.

Over the past few years they have dropped from Christmas Day onwards
You can get fares around $1300 SYD/LAX return before Xmas. 25DEC is always a quiet day. People want to either arrive before or after. 26DEC is very busy.

BNEA320

7th May 2017, 03:58

The leftist trade unions in Italy have stuffed Alitalia. Must be a 1,000 Alitalia pilots looking for jobs right now.

Can they still get 457 visas ? Don't think changes to 457's come in for a while ?

Wonder which airline will be next to fold ? Must be a lot of old legacy carriers hanging on by a thread.

Tuck Mach

7th May 2017, 04:58

Oh please...

Spare us the left versus right.

Alitalia is one of many airlines who struggle. 457 visas remain the refuge of the aviation HR scoundrel.

To suggest that 1,000 pilots will solve the demographic shortage may well be helpful to IR/HR practitioners, but will not address the shortage.

As to Alitalia specifically, the company I keep are very interested in a number of carriers with varied ownership structures listed and traded on the world's stock exchanges. They are both the older and newer style with their various capital structures. :=

Gamechanger

7th May 2017, 08:10

Emirates are around 1000 pilots short now and getting worse. China still short.
Ailitalia are a drop in an ocean.

Berealgetreal

7th May 2017, 08:21

Alitalia's problems aren't only union based. Politics in Italy are pretty complex to put it lightly. Ultimately nothing will save it and it should have been shut down a decade ago. Nearly 10 Billion tax payer euros squandered.

Their staff to airframe ratio is horrendous.

Ultimately, they needed to make an offshoot LCC and they didn't and in came RYANAIR and it was good night from there. Kind of like Air Asia operating narrow bodies around Aus!

I noted the XIAMEN advertisment doing roadshows in Italy (Alitalia) and Germany (Air Berlin). Looks like buying/"investing" in crap airlines happens all over the world!

Tankengine

7th May 2017, 10:05

Alitalia was "about to go broke" 10 years ago when I was in Toulouse, just took a long time.

Berealgetreal

7th May 2017, 10:45

Most of those that worked there had a great run. Its over now. I dare say they wouldn't recognise the job in a "modern airline".

NCD

7th May 2017, 12:00

"Wonder which airline will be next to fold ? Must be a lot of old legacy carriers hanging on by a thread"

PIXIE is an old Legacy Carrier.....40 plus years.

Combining its Court action loss with the Pilot Groups ( that prob will make a debt of $USD 10 Million plus), with outdated work/management practices and a seriously ageing and outdated fleet, could end up putting around 50-60 expats on the market, together with an equal amount of Nationals.

Icarus2001

8th May 2017, 03:35

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Have you got any factual trends to back up your belief in a recession or just the Facebook headlines?

your kidding right ?? Real estate developers/builders/speculators are going belly up left right & centre. It's going to be a bad one. We had to have it though. Everyone thinks they should be paid a $1000 an hour for doing SFA & everyone thinks their ****ty little house is worth $2m. Reality is coming home fast.

Well you have an opinion and I disagree. A real estate downturn does not a recession make. Do you have any other economic indicators pointing to a recession?

Dark Knight

8th May 2017, 06:37

Before going any further, go and read this:

Boeing: Pilot and Technician Outlook (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/long-term-market/pilot-and-technician-outlook/)

followed by downloading, reading and digesting this:

www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf

Then return here to take part in an educated discussion

Ps>> Airbus produce similar quality information

CurtainTwitcher

8th May 2017, 06:46

Dark Knight, Boeing are notoriously anti-labour / anti-union (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/boeing-floods-airwaves-in-south-carolina-union-grudge-match). It is in their customers & their own interest to flood the market with pilots & technicians (as labour costs reduce, prices decline & therefore demand for aircraft increases).

I have always taken the Boeing forecasts as self interest by inducing an over supply of skilled labour with optimistic forecasts.

DeltaT

8th May 2017, 07:17

It is in their customers & their own interest to flood the market with pilots & technicians (as labour costs reduce, prices decline & therefore demand for aircraft increases).

Correct!
...............

pilotchute

8th May 2017, 07:40

The USA had open immigration right up until the 1930's. Why? Because the factories needed unskilled labour and keeping the door open kept wages pitifully low. Just what the industrialists wanted.

neville_nobody

8th May 2017, 09:11

Just ignore the Boeing numbers they are literally imaginary numbers. If you read between the lines their growth rates are utterly ridiculous.

Duck Pilot

8th May 2017, 12:06

Hey Framer ask Duck Pilot about his Kidston flight one dark night; that is if really is who you say he is. Ha ha lucky it was two crew hey JT
Lucky he went into journalism is all I can say.
Ret.

Mistaken identity Ret, I've have no idea where Kidston is.

Who mentioned pole dancer is the winner!

Kunda catch, Plugga.

I'll be in PNG next week..............

Dark Knight

8th May 2017, 12:09

Boeing forecasts as self interest

Of course they are; Boeing are interested in selling aircraft, training engineers and crews and having watched, used their forecast over many. many years they have been reasonably accurate. (Airbus figure are not immeasurably different)

flood the market with pilots & technicians

Tell me where, particularity in Australia, where the number of pilots and engineers are being produced or where people are flooding training organisations for these, or any, jobs?

Are the working conditions, salaries, etc. offered these days sufficient to convince people these careers are well rewarded offering are good lifestyle particularly considering family lifestyle?

It is easy to make bland, unsubstantiated statements accusing manufacturers and airline operators of being anti labour, anti union (which in part maybe they are) however, manufacturers are interested in selling aircraft, airline operators in selling seats but somewhere along the line research departments have to produce figures showing management how many aircraft to build, how many to buy and how many employees to crew, maintain, sell tickets and `sling the hash' are needed to do the work!

As I said, produce some substantial figures (your own researched figures?) to support your argument or statements?

CurtainTwitcher

8th May 2017, 20:57

Fair criticisms DK.

To give you an idea of where I am coming from. When I look at long term projections, I look at the previous projection estimates that are then tested against what actually occurred. An excellent example is Infrastructure Australia 2015 Population Estimates (http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/Background-paper-on-demographic-projections.pdf) The report goes into meticulous detail and audits their previous estimate performance, and show their methodology.

The issue is that projections are highly sensitive to initial input conditions and assumption in the later years of the projections due to the compounding and magnification of small initial errors. This is why ANY modelling is fraught with error. Its also why weather forecasts are so short range.

If I don't see a review of previous forecast performance, I am therefore suspicious of motive. I still contend that Boeing would be much happier to over, rather than under estimate demand for labour. There is little upside for them to under estimate demand.

The small print from the Boeing 2016 Pilot Forecast (http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/services/assets/brochure/pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf)
The statements contained
herein are based on good faith
assumptions and provided for
general information purposes
only. These statements do not
constitute an offer, promise,
warranty or guarantee of
performance. Actual results may
vary depending on certain events
or conditions. This document
should not be used or relied upon
for any purpose other than that
intended by Boeing

jonkster

8th May 2017, 21:45

I still contend that Boeing would be much happier to over, rather than under estimate demand for labour. There is little upside for them to under estimate demand.

Wouldn't one upside would be to make customers confident in making future purchases?

"plan to buy more aircraft - and don't worry, you won't have a struggle to find qualified people to operate them as there will be plenty of them"

rather than:

"plan to buy more aircraft - oh... and there will be a shortage of qualified people to operate them but that is your problem"

:confused:

pilotchute

9th May 2017, 01:02

Boeing aren't projecting any of this growth in Australia. It will all be Asia and just about everywhere else other than Australia. Australian training organisations don't tell you this.

As another poster mentioned, we will need less engineers as as it's cheaper to offshore due to our high wages and training costs.

Just to prove a general point.

320 rating in USA costs around 17k AUD.
In Europe 27k (no base training required). Australia is over 40k now. How can they justify that?

Icarus2001

9th May 2017, 01:49

Emirates are around 1000 pilots short now and getting worse.

I understand they have around 4000 pilots right now. Where do you get a figure like that from?

Rated De

23rd Sep 2017, 03:52

As I live and breathe...

"One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity."

Of course Australia must still be 'different'
Will pilots accept any further erosion of terms and conditions in Australia?
Rest assured, IR although not working today, will repeat the narrative that there are a bunch of contractors, subsidiary airlines to fly unless you give up whatever is left.
Retirements are eating the majors in the US
Even O'leary admits its gone too far.

The magic eight ball hopes Australian pilots actually see the demographics, the lack of supply and realistically push back to any further cuts. Of course your friendly IR practitioner bets on pilots being fearful,uninformed and convinced the threat of redundancy is ever potent...:)

roundsounds

23rd Sep 2017, 12:05

I understand the current QF SO intakes are experienced Captains and FOs from the regionals and LCCs. In the past I understand the new intakes were way less experienced, a lot from single pilot charter operators. When you take a good look around GA there simply aren't the number of GA operators to draw from and the number of flight training organisations who would train pilots are rapidly disappearing. I reckon you'll see a drastic change in where new intakes come from once the pool of those prepared to leave regionals and LCCs dry up.
It will be interesting to learn how the regionals and LCCs replace the pilots they've lost.

Capt Fathom

23rd Sep 2017, 12:22

It will be interesting to learn how the regionals and LCCs replace the pilots they've lost
Mate, it's not rocket science. They'll cope!

framer

23rd Sep 2017, 14:19

If you haven't seen it it is worth reading the thread over in Terms and Endearment about the Ryanair pilot shortage. Apparently they have cancelled 2000flights and offered pilots 12000€ to stay on.

VC9

23rd Sep 2017, 15:40

I’m in Europe at the moment and Ryanair want 500 pilots in the next 6 months.

Cobham take note.

Ozgrade3

23rd Sep 2017, 16:29

I have lost all desire to work for an airline in Australia after watching the hiring & training process of some friends and workmates, of a huge US regional jet airline. If you meet their low minimum requirements (like 1500TT 75 ME) , you fire off an email. A few days later you get an email saying they want a skype interview. The interview I observed was very cordial and friendly, encouraging even, yet thorough on the technical stuff. They understood that someone who was an instructor in Australia wouldn’t be 100% up to speed on USA procedures. They didn’t care that it was only instructing the candidate had done. It was like they were trying to find a way the candidate could get through the interview, they WANTED the candidate to get through…..numerous times they said “we really want you to join our team, we are a great place to work”.

The training was tough, standards were high, but the instructors were friendly and really wanted the candidate to get the highest performance level possible, very much a collage type atmosphere – read fun. Support all round, but make no mistake, standards are high. The line training captains were more of the same. Friendly and encouraging without the inflated egos often found in Australia. I now have over 10 friends and acquaintances checked to line and flying in the biggest game in the world….in jets, in weather I can’t even imagine.

After reading here about experiences in the hiring process alone (being on a hold file for 2 years then being told you have to re-apply), and how some airlines treat their staff, especially at one often mentioned turbo prop regional in Oz, I’m more than happy to stay a lowly instructor…………sorry airlines in Australia, I’m just not interested any more.

Rated De

23rd Sep 2017, 19:56

A change was on the way the moment the baby boom was born.
That generation has to retire and eventually cease to exist. There never has been sufficient people to replace the biggest generation in history.

and how some airlines treat their staff, especially at one often mentioned turbo prop regional in Oz, I’m more than happy to stay a lowly instructor…………sorry airlines in Australia, I’m just not interested any more.

It comes down to respect, after all companies exist as a collective because together people accomplish more than we ever can alone. With hordes of HR (human remains) dictating policy in hiring and 'talent management' and infecting organsiations with a never ending desire to drive down unit cost, they exist not to further the collective effort, but rather their own empire's survival.

With Qantas' Joyce pulling a measly AUD$24.8 million for a group revenue that has gone down in real terms, as did luckily the fuel price, the division of the pie has been away from employees to 'executives' and their minions.Not just in aviation.

This paradigm shift (supply shortage) has been a long time coming and put simply with such a huge cost to learn to fly, an extended period of time until employable by airlines, a continued erosion or work life balance and less compensation for losing that balance, people make rational decisions are choose something else. If memory serves correctly when the HECS fees rose exponentially for Veterinary science in Australian universities, enrollments plummeted.

Management adversarial IT models have served their proponents well. Dismantling the apparatus of HR/IT will take time, but O'Leary was a pioneer of the adversarial model and is trumpeted by airline managers the world over. Australia's Jetstar model was set up with precisely that intent in mind: Minimum union oversight, adversarial, not 'accommodative' relations and practices designed to lower labour unit cost. CAO limits are targets, all in the name of productivity.
As I understand it, OLeary told shareholders he can take leave off pilots to keep things flying as the employment relationship allows him to do it.I wonder whether his pilots will be accommodate more adversarial conduct?

Air New Zealand under Rob Fyfe, Gordon Bethune at Continental and of course Southwest Airlines they don't behave towards people as this model dictates, their unit labour cost may be higher, but their group productivity is far higher. Treating people with respect does far more than accountants can ever count.:mad:

bafanguy

23rd Sep 2017, 20:27

Ozgrade3,

Nice to hear your friends and acquaintances have found a pleasant experience here. No one actually comes out ahead by abusing people in training. And while my personal experience over the years is somewhat out of date, I trained many places here in the USA and never had a toxic experience. It's not part of the av culture here generally.

As for the application/interview mechanism, there's always room for mistreatment in any country and while it doesn't routinely happen here it's not unheard of. Once one gets away from the cubicle droids, they may find a positive experience.

So, you gonna take the plunge yourself ?

VH DSJ

24th Sep 2017, 00:54

The training was tough, standards were high, but the instructors were friendly and really wanted the candidate to get the highest performance level possible, very much a collage type atmosphere – read fun. Support all round, but make no mistake, standards are high. The line training captains were more of the same. Friendly and encouraging without the inflated egos often found in Australia. I now have over 10 friends and acquaintances checked to line and flying in the biggest game in the world….in jets, in weather I can’t even imagine.

What Ozgrade3 said. Very much agree with how it's done in the US compared fo back home. They are very encouraging and friendly, but they do set high standards, so it's no walk in the park to pass the training and check to line. I personally know one guy who has been sent back home for not meeting the required standards.

Keg

24th Sep 2017, 01:22

Mate, it's not rocket science. They'll cope!

They don't seem to be at the moment!

"Littlebird"

24th Sep 2017, 05:29

QF will have to re-examine the way they recruit in the very near future if they want to compete for pilots with any real experience especially an ATPL.
The USA has woken up and now recruiting heavily for their regionals for now...
Much more about to happen all over the world especially if you have any type of ATPL. I wish I was a young bloke again!...

British Airways and Lufthansa have recently decided to reassess applicants as soon as only after 6 months if they had made the assessment centre, and only 3 months if they had a go on the sim.

L.B:ok::)

Icarus2001

24th Sep 2017, 05:32

I’m in Europe at the moment and Ryanair want 500 pilots in the next 6 months.
Cobham take note.

How many pilots do they "make" in Europe a year?

Why Cobham specifically?

Metro man

24th Sep 2017, 05:56

There is no interview for an expat Captain in China. If you can pass the medical, written and licence verification process you have the job, get through the line training and you are all set.

Rated De

24th Sep 2017, 07:10

Why Cobham specifically?

ICAO details the data but subsidiary and contractor flying has gone from around 4% cicra 2000 to 40% of an airline's flights today. Very common in the USA down under it is a few years behind.

So how it works is that a contractor/subsidiary will be quietly whispered about prior to the introduction of a new type or contract negotiation. If has been this way in an adversarial or at best accommodated IR models environment with notable but few exceptions.

The intent being to spook pilots introducing a staking horse. Former Qantas CFO Gregg detailed a lot of it in a parliamentary hearing in Canberra.
Timed with a downturn in the business cycle allows IR to drive through cost savings

Cobham is likely to be the airline Qantas uses this time around and of course JQ went from the original 23 aircraft to be bigger than the parent. The problem for Qantas and IR is that if pilots actually do some homework and realise the supply shortage is real, then the game is up.

IR will be betting heavily that the ghosts of 1989 are still in the cockpits of aircraft, where fear of redundancy, rather than a pilot workforce cognisant of their importance in the company and the relative scarcity of their skill set to face off against.

The model of adversarial IR is broken, demographically, my suspicion is that O'Leary knows it.

Duck Pilot

24th Sep 2017, 18:41

Only solution for some operators to keep flying will be to hire expats.

Getting suitably experienced check and chief pilots for the bottom end of town, particularly for the CAR 217 operatos is the major problem at present. Job pages on the AFAP website clearly confirms that. Isn't hard to work out who is having problems, lots of the same operators advertising for the same positions every few months.

Professional Amateur

24th Sep 2017, 20:24

Stocks getting low.

http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=119118&sid=c5df172099643a339f85e09d396a4730

framer

25th Sep 2017, 00:14

If Jetstar is arranging work permits for Canadians and Brits to fly the dash8 in NZ permanently, does that mean that pilot is on some sort of skills shortages list?
That would do my head in if I was banging around in a Bongo for GBA or Sun Air.

Sykes

25th Sep 2017, 01:49

framer

If Jetstar is arranging work permits for Canadians and Brits to fly the dash8 in NZ permanently, does that mean that pilot is on some sort of skills shortages list?

Replace "Pilot" with "Pilot willing to put up with the truly crap T&C's at J* props" then you're probably not too far wrong.

Almost two years after J*NZ started flying props, they are still relying on Qlink Captains to keep their (reduced) schedule operating.

Crew are still leaving faster than they can be trained.

ramble on

25th Sep 2017, 09:33

There will always be someone willing to scratch away in the antipodean salt mines for bread and water. At least for a bit until they catch the dangled residency carrot.

Tuner 2

25th Sep 2017, 10:25

Cobham is likely to be the airline Qantas uses this time around and of course JQ went from the original 23 aircraft to be bigger than the parent.

How exactly is JQ bigger than its parent??

Derfred

25th Sep 2017, 17:00

How exactly is JQ bigger than its parent??

Don't honestly know if JQ ever actually became bigger than it's parent, but it was certainly planned to be. Boston Bruce was quoted as saying JQ would rapidly grow to 400 aircraft in the Asia Pacific alone. Until he got sacked for admitting to the board that it would never actually make money.

But by that time he'd earned enough money to retire, so who cares? See the AJ bonus thread.

Transition Layer

26th Sep 2017, 01:01

I'm surprised by all this talk of jobs with US Regionals flying Jets and how awesome their selection process and training system is...aren't these the same companies notorious for low salaries and pilots living on food stamps. Or has the pay improved dramatically in recent years? I understand cost of living in the US outside of the major cities is substantially cheaper than here which would go some way to making it more attractive but our overall quality of life here is much better (Healthcare/Schools/Universities).

By allowing Aussie pilots to fly over there, they've opened up the pool of suitable applicants and surely this keeps downward pressure on wages. Same with the old 457 program here in Australia (which I believe has just kicked off again for Pilots in "regional" areas).

Jbrownie

26th Sep 2017, 01:41

I dont think pay has improved but the simple fact is they need pilots. I believe the E3 visa states from the employer that they will not pay the expats any less than the locals.

Yes, we can go on about cost of living and conditions etc but most of the folk making the jump over are getting straight on to a jet. Its the opportunity people are going over for.

I don't think there is too much downward pressure on wages. Continued pilot shortage or more specifically (shortage of experienced pilots) will create more demand, more jobs and more pay. As we have been seeing the last 18+months some definite movement finally in the oceanic region

I'm surprised by all this talk of jobs with US Regionals flying Jets and how awesome their selection process and training system is...aren't these the same companies notorious for low salaries and pilots living on food stamps. Or has the pay improved dramatically in recent years? I understand cost of living in the US outside of the major cities is substantially cheaper than here which would go some way to making it more attractive but our overall quality of life here is much better (Healthcare/Schools/Universities).

By allowing Aussie pilots to fly over there, they've opened up the pool of suitable applicants and surely this keeps downward pressure on wages. Same with the old 457 program here in Australia (which I believe has just kicked off again for Pilots in "regional" areas).

bafanguy

26th Sep 2017, 08:16

I dont think pay has improved but the simple fact is they need pilots. ...most of the folk making the jump over are getting straight on to a jet. Its the opportunity people are going over for. I don't think there is too much downward pressure on wages.

Jbrownie,

The pay has improved a bit with some increases in hourly rates plus sign-on and retention bonuses (and yes, those aren't "pay" increases by the strictest definition but are money in the pocket). The low pay got a lot of publicity following the KBUF crash but things have changed a bit to the better since then.

Throw in the "potential" upgrade within 2-3 years with attendant pay increase and it's an OK deal but subjectivity will determine each individual's outlook. Those to whom it doesn't appeal can pass and try something else.

Our Aussie compatriots can take the experience and relocate to better circumstances...or perhaps weave the magic spell on some of the local talent and end up with a green card.

The regionals aren't ordinarily a career destination although some people do stay to retirement. The whole airline biz is iffy enough but the regionals take it to a new level.

Who stole my meds

26th Sep 2017, 09:38

Is it not possible to apply for a green card whilst over there on the E3 Visa?

Blitzkrieger

26th Sep 2017, 21:35

It looks like Cobham pilots have had enough of the constant backward march in pay and conditions. Virtually unanimously agreed PIA commenced last Saturday.

umop apisdn

26th Sep 2017, 23:07

I think the hourly pay has somewhere near doubled since all the pilots were on food stamps, hence why a lot of Aussies are now deciding to go.

While definitely not up the top of the food chain, all indications I'm seeing are that you can definitely live on the pay. I have not seen one person who is there now complaining about it.

CurtainTwitcher

26th Sep 2017, 23:52

It looks like Cobham pilots have had enough of the constant backward march in pay and conditions. Virtually unanimously agreed PIA commenced last Saturday.
Let me guess, channelling no

work on Days Off
intersection departures
Reduced thrust takeoffs
Full IFR approaches
Other fuel saving measures

??

Rated De

27th Sep 2017, 00:26

Whilst comfortably enjoying regular hours, weekends and public holidays your friendly HR/IR team spends its waking hours destroying work life balance for you and all operational staff. The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is unit cost ZERO.

Sadly in the real world, where the money is actually generated for these types, the work life balance has been desecrated. O'Leary a pin up boy for adversarial relations IR models, stated;

“One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity.”

When it gets that a fork tongue is speaking like that, this is not cyclical, this is structural.:E

AerocatS2A

27th Sep 2017, 01:16

It looks like Cobham pilots have had enough of the constant backward march in pay and conditions. Virtually unanimously agreed PIA commenced last Saturday.

Do you mean Regional pilots or the Airline pilots?

Blitzkrieger

27th Sep 2017, 03:15

https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/documents/industrialballotsresults/twu/twu_2017707.pdf

https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/documents/industrialballotsresults/afap/afap_2017709.pdf

Tuner 2

27th Sep 2017, 07:49

I see the ballot only refers to TWU covered Cobham pilots. Any idea what percentage of all Cobham pilots are TWU?

CurtainTwitcher

27th Sep 2017, 09:28

I see the ballot only refers to TWU covered Cobham pilots. Any idea what percentage of all Cobham pilots are TWU?
More pertinent, what percentage of those in the LHS are in the TWU? Someone in the RHS can squawk all they like, but the left makes the call for the operational PIA. If the the LSH isn't TWU then they cannot legally undertake PIA as I understand it.

SuPeRcHaRgEd

27th Sep 2017, 09:43

More pertinent, what percentage of those in the LHS are in the TWU? Someone in the RHS can squawk all they like, but the left makes the call for the operational PIA. If the the LSH isn't TWU then they cannot legally undertake PIA as I understand it.

There are less than a dozen pilots that do not belong to one of the unions or are not represented in one way shape or form. The vast majority are embracing all of the actions with gusto. I doubt if any aviation company in recent history has seen a more united workforce taking it to the CIA!

framer

27th Sep 2017, 10:12

Regardless, there has never been a time that they have more in their favour than now.

wheels_down

27th Sep 2017, 11:27

framer
Replace "Pilot" with "Pilot willing to put up with the truly crap T&C's at J* props" then you're probably not too far wrong.

Almost two years after J*NZ started flying props, they are still relying on Qlink Captains to keep their (reduced) schedule operating.

Crew are still leaving faster than they can be trained.
They will always have crewing issues due to their tiny fleet, not unique to this carrier alone, it’s a risk they took taking the dash into NZ. If one pilot calls in or resigns it drags the whole operation down, they won’t overcrew it because the low cost model won’t allow it. Management just live and hope everyone is happy and will be there for the long haul.

You’ve got Emirates giving Saab pilots jobs onto the 777, why hang around on a prop for 10 years with your employer giving no concrete confirmation of narrow body opportunities in the future.

Chocks Away

27th Sep 2017, 14:40

Good luck fellas but the Australian airline "management" have very thick skulls and HR are worse... with a type of arrogance and nepotism that's sadly prevalent in many other regions of this business. Fierce jingoism is still rife too, throughout Asian majors but that won't last much longer. The writing was on the wall for along time, over this shortage!

I haven't seen so many pages of Jobs Available on the AFAP site ever, in my career. Says one thing - no pilots are being trained up to cover growth, let-alone cover retirements (BA; VS; LH; US majors etc etc).

All the Middle East (not just the Big 4) are still screaming for pilots and are very short, while Ethiopian and Turkish delight open up more vacancies...(Korean continue to advertise :-) ) the list goes on and China seems the only place willing to "raise the bar" for Terms and Conditions.

Yes EK are taking prop-guys onto B777 and it is causing problems in training issues etc, so that has now moved the pressure onto an Airlines Training mechanisms more so, having to cope with such inexperience levels than they had for granted, previously.

It should also put pressure on HR Departments to background check and thoroughly undergo logbook checks again (most don't even do this!), as there is a huge increase in fake logbooks prevalent right now, taking advantage of the vacant cockpit seats.

Good reading on here and interested to hear others stories :-)

Happy landings.

Blitzkrieger

27th Sep 2017, 20:32

I doubt if any aviation company in recent history has seen a more united workforce taking it to the CIA!

Symptomatic of the industry wide culture of treating staff like easily replaceable consumables and of management who, despite knowing exactly what immense value their staff bring to the organization, fail to acknowledge it. A culture driven by fear and the illusion of good, healthy HR practices. Why CASA isn't showing an interest in this is sinister at best. Any airline who purports to maintaining a safety first culture is perhaps dabbling in deception?

Sykes

27th Sep 2017, 23:00

They will always have crewing issues due to their tiny fleet, not unique to this carrier alone, it’s a risk they took taking the dash into NZ. If one pilot calls in or resigns it drags the whole operation down, they won’t overcrew it because the low cost model won’t allow it. Management just live and hope everyone is happy and will be there for the long haul.

You’ve got Emirates giving Saab pilots jobs onto the 777, why hang around on a prop for 10 years with your employer giving no concrete confirmation of narrow body opportunities in the future.

I agree with the principle.

But we're talking J*NZ props, and not an established carrier who's had fairly stable crewing suddenly experience a high turnover of crew due to the resurgence of jet operators hiring.

This is an operation that is less than two years old! It was started after the recruitment drives began.

The reality is, is that by offering garbage T&C's to a pilot population that now has more opportunities for upward progression, they will always struggle to get Captains, and still require substantial help from EAA/SSA Q300 Captains to keep the operation going.

They get FO's who are grateful to have got out of GA charter and instructing. That wears off pretty quickly when the day-to-day reality of the lifestyle they signed up for hits home. So they leave. In droves.

Rated De

28th Sep 2017, 03:00

Symptomatic of the industry wide culture of treating staff like easily replaceable consumables and of management who, despite knowing exactly what immense value their staff bring to the organization, fail to acknowledge it. A culture driven by fear and the illusion of good, healthy HR practices

Exactly, certified, ratified agreements with fair recompense for the contribution pilots and other 'operational' sacrifices professionals make, have been undermined as HR/IR assumed never ending supply.

With enough signals out there rational participants sought a restoration of balance and Low Fare Airlines are not balanced; the deck is stacked with draconian 'productivity enhancing' practices that never affect their weekends off, but they affect yours!

It never was about remuneration, it is always about respect, the contempt management shows for operational staff has accelerated a reduction in supply that demographics will drive for the next decade...

Imagine the architect of an adversarial IR structure saying what Michael O'Leary said. For those who do not know Ryanair is extremely adversarial, and was the pretext for the creation of JQ, where staff will be worked very hard for five to seven years and then discarded for new ones....

Ryanair's problems are not cyclical, they are structural and their whole model of employee relations has numbered days..

“One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity.”

CurtainTwitcher

28th Sep 2017, 22:46

Imagine the architect of an adversarial IR structure saying what Michael O'Leary said. For those who do not know Ryanair is extremely adversarial, and was the pretext for the creation of JQ, where staff will be worked very hard for five to seven years and then discarded for new ones....

Ryanair's problems are not cyclical, they are structural and their whole model of employee relations has numbered days..

“One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity.”

There is also a thread running about ryanair cancellations: http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/599355-ryanair-cancelling-flights.html

It's already starting: Ryanair cancels another 18,000 flights as it runs low on pilots (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/ryanair-cancels-another-18000-flights-as-it-runs-low-on-pilots-20170927-gyq6ht.html)

PPRuNe thread on the ryanir cancellations & pilot shortage http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/599355-ryanair-cancelling-flights.html

Rated De

28th Sep 2017, 23:11

The shortage is real it is demographically generated. Whilst HR/IR continue to ignore it, as does the mainstream media it will change profoundly everything from asset markets to pilot supply.

Pilot supply is interesting as it has a few specific traits:

Acumen- Not everyone is suited to it, nor able to do it.
Cost- Training costs are simply beyond the reach of many
Time- It takes an inordinate amount of time to reach ATPL level in terms of hours and experience
Experience cannot be bought
Supply is globalized-Myopically viewing a market in isolation (Australia) ignores the globalised supply problem.

Jetstar is not an airline of choice, other than for living in Australia. Qantas is much the same and they are now competing for a reduced globailsed supply.

I would expect (although tightly controlled by HR) that the regional airlines (as in the USA) and indeed GA are really showing the shortage. Cost of living pressures in major cities and time to command at the 'whim of management' is not an encouraging mix. I have read the Qlink (and JQ NZ turbo prop) forum and suspect it is an indication of a structural shortage.

The JQ model rolled out in Australia is a Ryanair lite model as the IR protection although radically decayed, are not as weak as Ireland. Do not forget these executives all go to the same schools, Irish aviation is tight, your Joyce knows O'Leary and indeed a a cousin of IAG CEO Walsh.

The playbooks are all very similar; adversarial models, squeezing labour unit cost. As Horizon Air spectacularly proved, you can keep lower unit labour cost until you have no revenue. Genius. :E

O'Leary has big problems, his unit cost may be lower than southwest Airlines, but his revenue and profit will be non existent. The stark difference between the two airlines is not platitudes, it is respect. Southwest Airlines respect the contribution people make, Ryanair, JQ et al deride it and with vigour and ultimately it will hasten the beginning of a new paradigm in employee relations.

Of course Australia may be different /sarc

CurtainTwitcher

29th Sep 2017, 00:18

Latest: Michael O'Leary's 18-hour figure 'does not seem to have any basis in reality,' says union | BreakingNews.ie (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/latest-michael-olearys-18-hour-figure-does-not-seem-to-have-any-basis-in-reality-says-union-806756.html)
Latest: Michael O'Leary's 18-hour figure 'does not seem to have any basis in reality,' says union

Update - 5.44pm: Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary's claim that short-haul pilots do not suffer fatigue from flying should be investigated over safety concerns, according to a trade union.

Speaking to reporters on the day of the airline's AGM in Dublin, Mr O'Leary dismissed reports that its flight crews were unhappy with their working conditions.

He said: "I would challenge any pilot to explain how this is either a difficult job, or how it is they are overworked or how anybody who by law cannot fly more than 18 hours a week could possibly be suffering from fatigue.

"If there are fatigue issues among pilots ... in short-haul flying it's never as a result of flying."

Brian Strutton, general secretary of UK pilots' union Balpa, said the comments were "wrong" and would lead to safety fears.

He said: "The 18-hour figure that Mr O'Leary has come up with does not seem to have any basis in reality.

"Pilots' flying and duty hours are rightly regulated in order to avoid fatigue. Current EU-level regulations limit pilots' duty hours to 60 per week, and flying hours to 100 in 28 days.

"If Ryanair cared to share their pilots' rosters with us we'd be happy to analyse them for fatigue.

"It is the responsibility of the Irish Aviation Authority to regulate Ryanair.
"I think they should look carefully at these comments by Mr O'Leary and decide whether they could give rise to concerns about the safety culture in that airline."

Mr Strutton described fatigue as "endemic in all kinds of commercial flying".
He said: "To suggest that pilot fatigue in short-haul operations can only occur because of the pilot's activities outside of work is, in our view, wrong.
"Balpa is worried about what message this is giving to pilots and what effect this management attitude has on safety culture.

"Pilots are legally bound to report their fatigue as it can have dangerous effects on pilot performance.

"Ryanair appears to be telling its pilots that if they report, their attitude will be that it's the pilot's own fault.

"This is not a good way to engender an open reporting culture."

Update 2.24pm: Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has said that some pilots are to be offered a €10,000 annual pay rise on top of a €12,000 bonus payment in a bid to plug staff shortages that have led to weeks of flight disruptions.

Michael O'Leary said pilots due to take a four-week block of holidays in the next two months will be told to reduce that to three weeks.

Mr O'Leary said pilots' pay at some of its largest bases "may be a bit on the low side".

He added that pay rises will be offered in areas where there are recruitment problems such as London Stansted, Dublin, Frankfurt and Berlin.

Mr O'Leary was being grilled by shareholders at Ryanair's AGM in Dublin today about the shelving dozens of flights every day over the next six weeks.

Shareholders also heard that Ryanair will complete training for a further 120 pilots within two weeks, and will recruit 500 new pilots over the next six months.

Mr O'Leary said this was part of normal recruitment and not linked to the current controversy.

Update 12.03pam: Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has today insisted that there is no problem between the airline and its pilots.

He said however that if pilots "misbehave", "there will be no goodies".
Mr O'Leary was speaking following a meeting with shareholders at the airline's AGM in Dublin on Thursday amid the flight cancellation controversy.

During the meeting he said Ryanair is planning to take back one week of their pilots' holidays to prevent any further flight cancellations.

Mr O'Leary said pilots due to take a four-week block of holidays in the next few months because a change in annual leave rotas will be told to reduce that to three weeks.

He said they will get that week back in January.

When asked about reports that pilots are threatening industrial action Mr O'Leary responded: "If you want and need to ask your staff to give up holidays, no work-to-rule can alter that."
He added: "I don't even know how there would be industrial action in Ryanair. There isn't a union."

He also said there have been no demands for new contracts.
Mr O'Leary continued that the airline has "some goodies" to discuss with pilots but warned: "If pilots misbehave that will be the end of the goodies."
He denied that was a threat to pilots against taking industrial action, saying: "I don't think that can be misconstrued as a threat."

Mr O'Leary accused some pilots of being "precious about themselves" and "full of their own self-importance".

"(Piloting a commercial plane) is very highly skilled but I challenge any pilot to explain how it is a difficult job or how they are overworked," he added.
Mr O'Leary insisted that Ryanair's pilots work under "good terms and conditions".

"There isn't a bad relationship between Ryanair and our pilots.
"We asked on Monday for volunteers to work days off ... we have had huge co-operation and support from pilots," he added.

Referring to pilots' pay he said "maybe we have got it a bit on the low side" and said it would be looked at.

Earlier Mr O'Leary was grilled by shareholders about the shelving of up to 50 flights every day over the next six weeks.

"We make mistakes. This time we made a major boo-boo," said Mr O'Leary.
"A very big block of annual leave (for pilots) was over-allocated for September, October and November," he added
Mr O'Leary said that to help ensure no further cancellations after the six-week period, 500 pilots with a four-week block of leave booked for October and 500 in November will have to work one week of that leave.
"We will tell them, 'we will make it up to you'. We will be reasonable.
"We don't need their agreement.

"(Pilots) are not going to participate in work to rule. They want to succeed," he added.

He apologised to the 350,000 people affected by the cancellations.
"I seriously regret these cancellations and upsetting and worrying 80 million of our customers last week.

"We are working hard and long hours to address the passengers disrupted last weekend.

"By the end of this week over 95% of customers will be rebooked or refunded," said Mr O'Leary.

He also told shareholders the six weeks of cancellations has cost the airline around €25m.
Earlier:
Ryanair is planning to take back one week of its pilots' holidays to prevent any further flight cancellations, the airline's chief executive has said.
Michael O'Leary said pilots due to take a four-week block of holidays in the next few months because a change in annual leave rotas will be told to reduce that to three weeks.

He said they will get the other week back in January.

He refused to discuss media reports that many pilots had turned down offers of a €12,000 bonus and instead demanding improved contracts, warning they will “work to rule”.

At a meeting with shareholders at the airline's AGM in Dublin, Mr O'Leary said the airline does not need the agreement of pilots to take back a week of their leave.

He told shareholders six weeks of cancellations, which he previously admitted was a 'mess', has cost the airline about €25m.
Mr O'Leary again apologised for the disruption, which he said was down to mismanagement of the pilots' rostering system.

gordonfvckingramsay

29th Sep 2017, 00:56

Wow!! I read this article and found a couple of interesting points.

Firstly, he's hiding something, the use of words such as "boo-boo", "a bit on the low side" and "goodies" etc. is classic baby talk used when trying to trivialize a serious situation. "Houston, we have a problem" that understatement of the century is used to convey the "relax, I got this" persona. In this case, I doubt he does, but he wants the world and the shareholders to think he does.

Secondly, he's using non-descript and leading language to make pilots feel like they have something to lose if they don't capitulate. That word "goodies" suggests surprises or hidden treasures which could in fact be a bag of minties. This practice is deeply laced with basic oppressive behaviour.

Thirdly, he paints himself as a great admirer of his pilots and the proceeds to justify his approach to them by quoting the lowest figure he could find to denigrate them publicly. It's a bit like prefacing an insult with "no offence". The reader is being laced with positives before the insult.

I hope this guy is thoroughly investigated and then ousted for being the maniac he appears to be. I also hope this is the beginning of a phase of transparency when it comes to LCCs and their inability to actually produce the goods for the shareholders. I'd be pulling my money out if I was an investor.

Rated De

29th Sep 2017, 04:59

Mr O'Leary said pilots' pay at some of its largest bases "may be a bit on the low side".He added that pay rises will be offered in areas where there are recruitment problems such as London Stansted, Dublin, Frankfurt and Berlin.

I would be watching closely Qlink very closely. Cost of living pressures are not to be taken in isolation. Will Qlink be able to recruit into Sydney? :E

Secondly, he's using non-descriptive and leading language to make pilots feel like they have something to lose if they don't capitulate. That word "goodies" suggests surprises or hidden treasures which could in fact be a bag of minties. This practice is deeply laced with basic oppressive behaviour.

Of course he is, this adversarial IR model relies on the implied threat of 'taking away goodies'

EA negotiations drawn out until business cycle deteriorates, they drive through their desired changes in a slowing economy, threatening to 'take away' the goodies or 'back pay' from stalling the negotiation for so long
If deterioration, usually another big round of job losses, the implied threat of redundancy is quietly spread.

O'Leary is the poster boy for this style of IR. The problem with all their clever models of employee management is they NEVER imagined lack of supply.

It is structural, NOT cyclical. their model is dead and for you in Australia may portend a decline in the role of Oldmeadow and adversarial IR as practiced at JQ and Qantas. :ok:

PoppaJo

29th Sep 2017, 06:02

would be watching closely Qlink very closely. Cost of living pressures are not to be taken in isolation. Will Qlink be able to recruit into Sydney?
It’s a real problem. Previous mob I worked for struggled to crew narrow bodies for this very reason at the same port, paxing flight crew from outside bases down to keep the operation running. I have no idea how they expect to crew small props. I know quite a few at one prop operator who house share locally in order to get by.

Rated De

29th Sep 2017, 07:26

At a meeting with shareholders at the airline's AGM in Dublin, Mr O'Leary said the airline does not need the agreement of pilots to take back a week of their leave.

When all you have is a hammer, every problem is a nail :E

So more of the same will work really well Mr. O'Leary (take leave back because he can-a sure way to engender more co-operation.)
In the Australian context, who recalls Mr. Joyce telling all and sundry that 'his own staff were 'kamikazes'? The play book is the same. They speak with fork tongues.
Southwest Airlines is different,

"It is nothing short of a kamikaze campain," Mr Joyce said, directing his attack at the Australian International Pilots Association, the Australian Licensed Engineers Association and also the Transport Workers Union.

Southwest Airlines:
'Employees are treated more as a source of value, rather than as a cost. Consequently, it has never retrenched any of its workers.'

There are other ways to do things, Southwest has done it for 46 years. To dismantle an adversarial IR/HR framework takes serious commitment, treating people with respect just isn't part of the Ryanair model. Nor is it many airlines that replicate it, including Australia's Qantas group.

The Bullwinkle

29th Sep 2017, 12:31

To dismantle an adversarial IR/HR framework takes serious commitment, treating people with respect just isn't part of the Ryanair model. Nor is it many airlines that replicate it, including Australia's Qantas group.
You can add Virgin to that list!

gordonfvckingramsay

29th Sep 2017, 23:18

i can't think of an aviation company in Oz who doesn't deserve a mention.

Rated De

1st Oct 2017, 06:46

Quite right Gordon,

HR is an infection that has complicated workplace relationships across all industries. Wedging themselves into every conversation they are now a cornerstone of modern 'management practice'. Teaming with IR they make the experience of work, more complicated, more adversarial and less productive.

Candidly, in years to come it will businesses like Southwest that become the benchmark rather than the O'Leary adversarial model. Staff cost you money that is a given, but respected people in any profession deliver far more than the bookkeepers can ever measure on an excel spreadsheet.

In the short term, the bite of staff shortages with long lead times and numerous barriers to entry is amusing to watch from the sidelines. :E

ramble on

2nd Oct 2017, 07:12

Hear Hear,

There is also the unquantifiable positive effect on society as a whole when there are good workplace relationships. When people are respected, treated fairly, paid reasonably and given opportunities to contribute skill, knowledge, experience and value........that stuff is priceless and gets taken home and spread around in society.

Instead we now enjoy a constant race to the bottom driven by greed for short term profit. It is no wonder Australia is on a graveyard spiral.

Rated De

7th Oct 2017, 11:00

There is also the unquantifiable positive effect on society as a whole when there are good workplace relationships. When people are respected, treated fairly, paid reasonably and given opportunities to contribute skill, knowledge, experience and value........that stuff is priceless and gets taken home and spread around in society.
Our societies have been rendered obsolete it is an economy now! What an economy fails to understand at its core, is the connection between people.
Some airlines realise it, some businesses understand that 'my income is your revenue' and so on.

Airlines remain for the foreseeable future 'people businesses' where they are a community. Airline managers as modern MBA graduates can't see the 'community' of an organisation. Instead it is divided into its segments where accountants can drill down and unit costs be assessed (and lowered). Having worked with many of these types I can attest, they look at a shoe factory as they would an airline; people are only ever counted as units of labour cost. Linking it all together where the collective is greater than the sum of the parts is really the limitation of their skill set; a scotoma.

Airlines were built by people with vision, never by accountants, who after all simply count what has already happened and project the future from the past. It is an important discipline of course, but in the modern corporation holds in my opinion, way too much power. Accounting is by definition assessing a businesses' future whilst driving forwards, focused on the rear vision mirror (apologies to Paul Keating) Tied together with HR/IR and you begin to comprehend the problem and task.

Alan Joyce given his humble Irish background, had a real opportunity to take Qantas in a different direction; away from conflict and adversarial relations with its staff. Candidly with Leigh Clifford even if he wanted to it would have been a difficult task.

It will be left to someone who remembers their history and values people that will turn it around. Part of that herculean task is dismantling well entrenched interest in the conflict model. That is a task of a big man. Joyce has neither the intent nor appetite, like his mentor at Ryanair, Joyce loves jabs at pilots

Trust Mr O’Leary to add fuel to that inferno with his accusation that some pilots were being “precious about themselves” and “full of their own self-importance”. Not to mention jabs at the amount of hours they have to work. In 2011 as it suited his (Joyce's) narrative, pilots wanted first class travel, massages and were kamikazes.

Can O'Leary or Joyce change?
Perhaps best summed up by the Independent:
Time for the mutinous pilots to book the gains they’ve made and pipe down?
If I were in their shoes I would at this point ask myself whether leopards ever really change their spots.

Though the pursuit of this adversarial strategy handed management gains over their pilots for decades, this is now changing. As O'Leary continually increases the flight cancellation count and writes confessional letters of apology to the pilots at Ryanair, they have, through their own IR/HR structure killed off the unlimited supply of pilots their model necessitated.

That is amusing to watch and Australian pilots ought remember that unless Australia is somehow divinely different it will get there too! The pilots at Cobham ought remember that revenue for an airline approaches zero if no flights get to destination, and also remember that whilst pilots are a very important part of an airline, there are other operational people that help it all come together....