Pilot shortage

[Al E. Vator]

....and another easily negotiated item. Don't pay for endorsements.
Bonding sure (employers needs to protect themselves from a rapid turnover of pilots) but no need to pay upfront for endorsements.

[Slippery_Pete]

....and another easily negotiated item. Don't pay for endorsements.


Pilots have always had this option.

Those who have been burned with the latest JETGO fiasco deserve everything they get.

Pilot funded endorsements should never be an industrial bargaining issue for unions. Those who chose to do this degraded the industry for everyone of their own volition and selfishness. Has nothing to do with EBA negotiations.

[megan]

So the Qantas CEO makes 30 million dollars and is the highest paid CEO in the CountryProbably true, but AJ is the highest paid airline executive in the WORLD. Question is, is he worth it? :suspect:

[Capn Bloggs]

Pilot funded endorsements should never be an industrial bargaining issue for unions. Those who chose to do this degraded the industry for everyone of their own volition and selfishness.
So Pete, your son has only one option for a decent flying job to advance his career, a job where he has to pay for the endorsement. What do you advise him?

[Rated De]

Probably true, but AJ is the highest paid airline executive in the WORLD. Question is, is he worth it? :suspect:

He is certainly the highest remunerated in the Asia Pacific region.
His performance is well below his peers.

In a decade Qantas Group revenues have fallen 5% in real terms.
Margin growth is not structural change. Majority accounting derived change.
Fuel price decline the major contributor to margin improvement.
Share buy back improving key metrics like EPS.

Oh and they got a few aircraft, originally ordered by the Dame and Geoff in FY0506..

[gordonfvckingramsay]

He is certainly the highest remunerated in the Asia Pacific region.
His performance is well below his peers.

In a decade Qantas Group revenues have fallen 5% in real terms.
Margin growth is not structural change. Majority accounting derived change.
Fuel price decline the major contributor to margin improvement.
Share buy back improving key metrics like EPS.

Oh and they got a few aircraft, originally ordered by the Dame and Geoff in FY0506..

You forgot to mention outsourcing of most of the airline peripheral services and most of it's regional flying to non QANTAS group companies, sometimes below what it would really cost to maintain. Some of those contractors are skimping on EBA provisions, wonder why that would be. Also EOD and the exponential rise in deferred defects being carried on many red tailed aircraft that didn't happen once.

Anyone who thinks that is a good way to run a business is clearly in on the scam. She's gutted sadly!!

[QuarterInchSocket]

IR is where he’s made his impact. Pitting company against subsidiary, subsidiary against subsidiary to yield desired effect. The good running of Qantas as a single entity is clearly not his sole focus, thus we have the illustrious Qantas Group - comprising of a number of subsidiaries able to be cut/disbanded, practically free of what he’d consider suffocating IR issues. For this I think he is remunerated albeit, disproportionately and not commensurate.

[Rated De]

You forgot to mention outsourcing of most of the airline peripheral services and most of it's regional flying to non QANTAS group companies, sometimes below what it would really cost to maintain. Some of those contractors are skimping on EBA provisions, wonder why that would be. Also EOD and the exponential rise in deferred defects being carried on many red tailed aircraft that didn't happen once.

Anyone who thinks that is a good way to run a business is clearly in on the scam. She's gutted sadly!!

Airline fundamentals are fundamental for a reason: They ensure longevity. A big component of CEO responsibility enshrined in statute necessitates foresight to remove strategic risk, thereby protecting the funds on whose behalf you act; the shareholder.

IR is where he’s made his impact. Pitting company against subsidiary, subsidiary against subsidiary to yield desired effect. The good running of Qantas as a single entity is clearly not his sole focus, thus we have the illustrious Qantas Group - comprising of a number of subsidiaries able to be cut/disbanded, practically free of what he’d consider suffocating IR issues. For this I think he is remunerated albeit, disproportionately and not commensurate. He is like that fart you dropped in an elevator, rank and tends to linger.

That is a valid observation.


When one takes a step back and looks at Qantas it has failed this responsibility by deferring fleet decisions and heavily focusing on labour unit cost reductions (IR/HR) It has also failed to anticipate, prepare for and execute a strategy to counter the obvious industry wide pilot shortage. It either willfully ignored or lacks the institutional foresight to see a clear strategic risk to the business: A lack of qualified and appropriate pilots. This strategic failure is axiomatic. That failure is his.

Whether Mr Joyce has any self reflection is a matter for himself. He however had a real opportunity to steer Qantas in a different direction, A aviation light board, with a industrial head kicker and aviation light weight as the Chair, perhaps Mr Joyce grabbed his opportunity and embraced a way of running a company better suited to rocks and mining, than people and dynamic risk. For a man so preoccupied with inclusion and acceptance, Qantas is a poor model. Sadly, he has little to show, personal fortune aside.

Ask anyone at Southwest about Herb Kelleher and their feelings are almost universal: His respect for people, his responsibility for their well being is reciprocal, each employee values the company as if it is their own.

Ironically for companies like Qantas, hell bent on division, fear and anxiety driven compliance, this adversarial approach costs far more than genuine concern for the people that make the company.
Mr Joyce would not venture far from Coward street (pun intended) without a security detail. That for him is a sad testament to a decade (almost) 'running' the company

[gordonfvckingramsay]

Airline fundamentals are fundamental for a reason: They ensure longevity. A big component of CEO responsibility enshrined in statute necessitates foresight to remove strategic risk, thereby protecting the funds on whose behalf you act; the shareholder.

I agree that this is how it's done, but is it really an effective way to run a business?

this adversarial approach costs far more than genuine concern for the people that make the company

Ironically for companies like Qantas, hell bent on division, fear and anxiety driven compliance

Fear and anxiety are killers, could QANTAS really survive a hull loss? The only thing it has going for it as a brand now is the fact that it hasn't lost a jet yet.

[Professional Amateur]

https://youtu.be/U8Lw8apnuVs

ABC News, pilot shortage

[mattyj]

You’re looking at the next wave of recruitment for Australia..circa 2025

[FYSTI]

'There's no one': pilot sickness, faults stretch Qantas

By Matt O'Sullivan

Updated4 June 2018 — 3:57pmfirst published at 2:57pm

Qantas’ fleet of A330 aircraft has been stretched to cover services over the past few days after two of the twin-aisle plane types suffered engine and flight control faults.

And in a sign of the pressure on crewing, a Qantas 747-400 jumbo bound for the Chilean capital of Santiago from Sydney with a full load of passengers narrowly avoided being cancelled on Sunday when a replacement for a sick pilot was found in the nick of time.“Scheduling is desperately seeking a first officer or suitably qualified [right-hand seat] captain to crew the QF27,” a Qantas manager of base operations wrote in an “urgent request” to pilots fewer than three hours before the jumbo was due to depart Sydney.

“All standby crew have been used and SMS messages sent plus management pilots contacted. There’s no one. The flight is likely to be cancelled.”

The urgent email request was sent about 2½ hours after the company fired off a text message to well over 100 pilots to see if anyone was available to step in.
The Qantas jumbo eventually took off on the 12-hour flight to Chile about 45 minutes late.

While a sign of strong demand for flights, pilots say the airline’s high utilisation of aircraft is placing pressure on crewing. And it also raises the likelihood of disruptions to flights when aircraft encounter significant technical problems.All standby crew have been used and SMS messages sent plus management pilots contacted. There’s no one.

Qantas manager of base operations
On Friday, a Qantas A330 bound for Bangkok turned back to Sydney Airport shortly after take off when one of its two engines suffered a “high vibration event”.

The plane circled Sydney before landing safely about an hour after departing. Passengers on QF23 were later put on a replacement plane bound for Bangkok, but the affected A330 remains grounded at Sydney to allow for the engine to be replaced.

And late on Friday night, another Qantas A330-300 bound for Hong Kong was forced to remain on the ground at Brisbane Airport due to a flight-control malfunction, resulting in a three-hour delay.

“Due to the increased utilisation and complexity in the A330 network, I would expect there to be ongoing delays for the next few days due to these two events,” Qantas’ deputy manager for Airbus fleet operations told pilots in an email on Saturday.

https://i.imgur.com/DuPeuAF.jpg

“This is unfortunately going to result in some roster disruptions.”

The senior manager said the A330 engine’s “high vibration event” above Sydney on Friday bore similarities to an engine problem on an aircraft departing Brisbane recently.

“We will be investigating the cause and provide information to you as soon as possible,” he said in the note.

At the weekend, six international flights were delayed by an average of about three hours.

https://i.imgur.com/c0zFVSj.jpg

Qantas said in a statement that airline schedules were finely tuned and, while it had a level of redundancy to help recover quickly if an aircraft had unexpected technical issues or crew suddenly became unwell, it sometimes did cause delays.

“Qantas is undertaking one of the largest pilot recruitment programs in its history, with
150 pilots to be recruited into Qantas and QantasLink in the next financial year,” it said.

Qantas plans to open a pilot academy next year capable of training up to 500 pilots annually.

Sydney Morning Herald : 'There's no one': pilot sickness, faults stretch Qantas (https://web.archive.org/web/20180604072019/https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/there-s-no-one-pilot-sickness-faults-stretch-qantas-20180604-p4zj9v.html)

[maggot]

Purely a resource management issue above nothing to do with a shortage in the greater sense.
KPI met elsewhere, disruption paid from some else's budget

[dragon man]

Exceptional circumstances, highly unusual, never happened before, as is typical our magnificent staff rose to the occasion. Could I get a job in the spin department, I mean the PR department?

[Capt Kremin]

I could stoutly and robustly defend any charge of being a company man, but even I fail to understand the utility of releasing that to the media.

[Rated De]

I could stoutly and robustly defend any charge of being a company man, but even I fail to understand the utility of releasing that to the media.



It will likely turn up as ' narrative support' where legislative change is needed by Qantas to circumvent existing legislation.

[maggot]

Yeah don't know why a pilot would release it, probably straight outta IR

[Slippery_Pete]

So Pete, your son has only one option for a decent flying job to advance his caree

I don’t have a son, only a daughter.

But regardless, your mythical scenario doesn’t exist. There is never just one option to advance one’s flying career.

There may be only one which is a queue jumping, selfish, degrading decision for the entire industry... but there’s not one option.

What would I tell her? It’s a selfish, short term decision, from which you may get burned, and she’s a fool if she does it.

But she’s smarter than all that. I knew that when she chose never to get involved in Aviation.

But you keep on justifying the degradation of the industry and self prostitution with fictional scenarios :D

[nefarious1]

Looks to me like Qantas will pull all levers to get the government to allow more 457 visas

[Glorified Dus Briver]

Sunnies on during the interview...really!? Good job Maverick :ok:

How many of those clowns will I find on Instagram?

[framer]

Serves you right for being on Instagram :)

[maggot]

Looks to me like Qantas will pull all levers to get the government to allow more 457 visas
Exactly
No way qf crew sent this out - 100% leaked for their position

[gordonfvckingramsay]

So Qantas leak this and get those restrictive laws lifted thus allowing them to employ 457 (or equivalent) visas. What’s to say they won’t still understaff?

[Street garbage]

They didn't train for 10 years, and now they wonder why the equivalent of 3 B737's are parked against the fence.
Senior training management requested training/ recruitment approximately 3 years before it did. Everything went on the back burner so KPI's could be achieved. Now they have excess on some fleets, whilst critical shortages occur on other (B737, 744, A330 F/o's for the last 5 years). Blame the staff, and then present this as more reasons for 457's.
Piss up in a brewery comes to mind.

[maggot]

They didn't train for 10 years, and now they wonder why the equivalent of 3 B737's are parked against the fence.
Senior training management requested training/ recruitment approximately 3 years before it did. Everything went on the back burner so KPI's could be achieved. Now they have excess on some fleets, whilst critical shortages occur on other (B737, 744, A330 F/o's for the last 5 years). Blame the staff, and then present this as more reasons for 457's.
Piss up in a brewery comes to mind.
This!!
Completely self inflicted

[Toruk Macto]

Worlds greatest airline CEO ( going on earnings ) and he struggles to get pilot numbers right ? Now runs to government to demand they let him get cheap pilots from overseas . If govt really represent Australians they would tell him sort it out by training and hiring Australians for a fair wage !

[Icarus2001]

Where are these mythical cheap pilots coming from?

Europe, not likely. USA no way they are booming. SE Asia, no way. So what a few from South Africa and the odd European who wants a change of scenery?

Why would they be any cheaper than local guys, they would be employed on the same EBA. In fact they cost more to get on line due to the admin costs involved dealing with immigration.

The 457 (old name) threat is an empty threat.

[Rabbitwear]

They need ready made Australian guys from EK CX and the Like to come home , but need to hold equivalent positions , then they will be swamped .
its sad you need to lose rank after a long flying career just to change Airlines !

[greenfields]

.its sad you need to lose rank after a long flying career just to change Airlines !

You don't. But if you want to get into a Legacy/Major back home - whether it be the USA, UK, Aust, Germany,France or wherever, then you do. That's life, and so be it. Join the bottom of the queue, and don't try to leapfrog those who have worked their way up over a long time. That's the career you go into, everybody understands it when they start, and so don't complain about it now because you no longer want to live overseas, and wish to return home.

[I Claudius]

Hmmm, 30 million eh!

Should see some very shiny floats in the next Mardi .

[havick]

They need ready made Australian guys from EK CX and the Like to come home , but need to hold equivalent positions , then they will be swamped .
its sad you need to lose rank after a long flying career just to change Airlines !

The saying, ‘you made your bed......’ comes to mind.

[bazza stub]

They need ready made Australian guys from EK CX and the Like to come home , but need to hold equivalent positions , then they will be swamped .
its sad you need to lose rank after a long flying career just to change Airlines !

Kidding me right? Airlines need(ed) recognize that in order to keep pilots they need to make it a viable career not some beaten down worthless job. Import all the ex pats you want, it’s still a sh!t way to earn a crust and there will always be a shortage as long as that’s the case.

[krismiler]

And what about the F/O who's not quite upgradable yet and suddenly finds a load of pilots with 10-15 years flying left in them suddenly appearing in the captain's seat ?

[maggot]

I too wish to have my cake and eat it also

[Street garbage]

So F/o's who have been in QF mainline don't have enough experience (22 years to East Coast 737 Command, around 26 for widebody), so we should alllow DEC?'s Yeah, right. What BS.

[Australopithecus]

I don't think QF mainline is the subject of this thread, nor can I ever imagine a DEC scenario in QF. Direct entry F/O* does happen and likely will from time to time in the future too.

*direct F/O trainee after a day as an S/O trainee.

I wonder though if DEC is on the cards at the regionals?

[AerocatS2A]

*direct F/O trainee after a day as an S/O trainee.


Is that to get around some rule about hiring straight on to the B737?

[Rabbitwear]

I’m happy to join as an F/O ,that’s some respect for my experience . But there is no separate application for this . Surely that is fair when competing with people with 500total hours !

[Australopithecus]

I’m happy to join as an F/O ,that’s some respect for my experience . But there is no separate application for this . Surely that is fair when competing with people with 500total hours !



Dude...we have S/Os with plenty of heavy jet time, some with lots of heavy command time. It’s the nature of the system:you join at the bottom and take your opportunities as they arise. F/O slots on the 737 are a regularly occurring thing. However, going straight to F/O means many many years of shorthaul flying before getting a chance of a widebody right seat. You have to ask yourself if you want the gig for an ego stroke or to maximise your earnings during your tenure. If its the latter perhaps an entry bid for the 737 isn’t the best strategy.

regarding respect for your experience: sorry. If it wasn’t gained with us then its suspect and perhaps why we'll have to keep a close eye on you for any bad habits you collected out there in the world. We will do everything possible to extend respect for your choice of gender, your sexual proclivities, your accent, foibles, race, colour and creed. But not for your experience. Beats me why that is.

Also....you’re not competing with 500 hr applicants.

[chookcooker]

If it wasn’t gained with us then its suspect and perhaps why we'll have to keep a close eye on you for any bad habits you collected out there in the world.




Except of course those coming back from Emirates or any other LWOP opportunities.

Let alone those currently going straight to the RHS of the 737 after a token day or two as SO

Lay off the Kool Aid

[das Uber Soldat]

.
regarding respect for your experience: sorry. If it wasn’t gained with us then its suspect and perhaps why we'll have to keep a close eye on you for any bad habits you collected out there in the world. .
Sweet jesus..

#skyGods

[frozen man]

OMG can’t believe that’s not a wind up
#skygods

[Lookleft]

You need to read the whole quote from Australopithecus.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

There’s no time to read the whole quote! The #skygod hashtag must be deployed ASAP!

[maggot]

There’s no time to read the whole quote! The #skygod hashtag must be deployed ASAP!

A most excellent troll.
Topical, on target. Nice.

[morno]

regarding respect for your experience: sorry. If it wasn’t gained with us then its suspect and perhaps why we'll have to keep a close eye on you for any bad habits you collected out there in the world. We will do everything possible to extend respect for your choice of gender, your sexual proclivities, your accent, foibles, race, colour and creed. But not for your experience. Beats me why that is.

OMFG :ugh:

Even if that's not your own opinion, it just goes to show the rest of the Qantas mentality that they're apparently the best pilots in the world :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Chris2303]

OMFG :ugh:

Even if that's not your own opinion, it just goes to show the rest of the Qantas mentality that they're apparently the best pilots in the world :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I think it was sarcasm/irony.

[Australopithecus]

Yes, it was sarcasm. And its not about skygod syndrome either, but about a common institutional/tribal impulse.

Personally I learn a lot from pilots from different backgrounds. Sometimes you encounter people who constantly find fault with procedure, comparing ours unfavourably with some past practices. That gets tiresome, but its easily fixed with a bit of gentle re-education. I think we have a camp for that.

[rockarpee]

There are some REALLY SLOWWWW posters out there, A very tongue in cheek comment from Austral:rolleyes:

[Keg]

Geez, if you couldn’t read the sarcasm/ irony in Australopithicus’ post then maybe comprehension isn’t your thing. Certainly gave me a giggle. :D :ok:

[Australopithecus]

Its a tough room to work, Keg.

[crosscutter]

Wow, classic few posts. Some I expect should be rushing for the delete button as intellect did a Houdini

[Tankengine]

Geez, if you couldn’t read the sarcasm/ irony in Australopithicus’ post then maybe comprehension isn’t your thing. Certainly gave me a giggle. :D :ok:
Some complain on here why they don’t get recruited despite their experience. ;)

[morno]

I was recently told of a QF aircraft going into Heathrow, with the FO being a recent return from LWOP at another airline whereby he had been a Captain and operated into Heathrow quite a bit.

The SO being unfamiliar with the place asked a question, to which the FO answered it. The Captain then piped up and said “as you haven’t operated a Qantas aircraft into there you really shouldn’t be giving any answers” :rolleyes:

Now does that make the above post seem all that implausible?

[ScepticalOptomist]

I was recently told of a QF aircraft going into Heathrow, with the FO being a recent return from LWOP at another airline whereby he had been a Captain and operated into Heathrow quite a bit.

The SO being unfamiliar with the place asked a question, to which the FO answered it. The Captain then piped up and said “as you haven’t operated a Qantas aircraft into there you really shouldn’t be giving any answers” :rolleyes:

Now does that make the above post seem all that implausible?

There’s always one - but they are definitely in the minority.

99.9% of the guys and gals I fly with in any seat are great.

Unfortunately there’s always someone who doesn’t get the sense of humour / sarcasm and takes it the wrong way and over reacts.

[Slippery_Pete]

I was recently told of a QF aircraft going into Heathrow, with the FO being a recent return from LWOP at another airline whereby he had been a Captain and operated into Heathrow quite a bit.

The SO being unfamiliar with the place asked a question, to which the FO answered it. The Captain then piped up and said “as you haven’t operated a Qantas aircraft into there you really shouldn’t be giving any answers” https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies2/icon_rolleyes.gif

Now does that make the above post seem all that implausible?

I hadn’t heard this single episode. It changes everything. Every skipper at QF must be like this one guy, on this one occasion.

Thanks Morno :ok:

As for the earlier sarcasm, a blind person could have seen that coming. These people can’t even identify a simple bit of fishing, and they wonder why they can’t prgress through the QF recruitment system.

As for those Aussies wanting to come back into QF direct entry from O/S - never heard anything more laughable in my life. Reap/sow.

[Australopithecus]

Boys and girls, you must be able to take a joke in this business. Yes, we have the standard 3% dick ratio, and yes, they can be insufferable. But suffer them you must. I joined QF after logging an extensive CV elsewhere so I understand and have lived the problem. But as a practical matter, QF, and all airlines really, only care how you fly today.

As far as old mate approaching the hold at Lambourne goes: You get that “not-invented-here” problem everywhere. People who subscribe to that nonsense are phillistines, and to be ignored when safe to do so.

[krismiler]

To come back as a direct entry Captain you need to look at a new start up, such as Virgin Blue in the year 2000 or operators such as Alliance who need experienced crew to replace those moving onto major airlines.

Many pilots had to go overseas to get an airline job as these were thin on the ground at home between the time Virgin Blue had finished ramping up to replace Ansett, and the current shortage. Jetstar and Tiger Airways could only a small number of those applying. Many in CX/EK would love to come back as these jobs are a fraction of what they were 15 years ago, but the handcuffs are on as going from a wide body Captain expat package, to a narrow body F/O package with none of the perks such as housing and education is too great a financial penalty. Back in the right seat at 40, followed by 15 years to upgrade to a domestic narrow body command and not having the seniority to get into a wide body LHS again before retirement puts many off.

Once an expat, always an expat. Either come home and join the seniority list before you're 30, or come back when you're over 50 cashed up, and can afford to take a retirement job.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Back in the right seat at 40, followed by 15 years to upgrade to a domestic narrow body command and not having the seniority to get into a wide body LHS again before retirement puts many off.

One thing to note is that at least a the Q, most are getting their initial narrow body command at age 40+, and could expect to be in that position for 7 to 10 years. The vast bulk of 737 captains are >50 years of age, this is the junior fleet.

This is the reason that seniority is so strongly defended against DE. They signed up for a system, knowing it's pluses and minuses, for better or worse. Others may have chosen to take a career rocket by going to less desirable locale, some had no choice, but had the good fortune to end up strapped to it anyway. They pay a different price for being on that rocket, but to be clear, there is a price to pay in either iteration of the system.

No system is perfect, no career path is without pain and disappointment, either with promotional prospects or the place of abode. There are very few shortcuts available that enable you to have the best of both worlds. There are some who were in the right place at the right time, but they are relatively rare in the industry now.

[greenfields]

I was recently told of a QF aircraft going into Heathrow, with the FO being a recent return from LWOP at another airline whereby he had been a Captain and operated into Heathrow quite a bit.

The SO being unfamiliar with the place asked a question, to which the FO answered it. The Captain then piped up and said “as you haven’t operated a Qantas aircraft into there you really shouldn’t be giving any answers” :rolleyes:

Now does that make the above post seem all that implausible?

I know a (probably the only?) guy this could be referring to. When I asked him he said he doesn't recall it being said to him, but if it was said to him it was in jest cos he can't remember it and obviously took it as such.

[Rated De]

So still convinced of Australian exceptionalism?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata-pilots-analysis/airlines-struggle-with-global-pilot-shortage-idUSKCN1J20XK

Carriers such as Emirates and Australia’s Qantas Airways (QAN.AX (https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=QAN.AX)) have poured resources into hiring, but struggled in recent months to use their jets as often as their business plans dictate because of training bottlenecks.

The high cost of pilot training and several years of earlier hiring freezes in markets like the United States and Australia have deterred potential aviators from entering an industry that Boeing says will need 637,000 more pilots over the next 20 years.


Airlines considered top employers in their home country, such as Qantas and IAG-owned British Airways, are not yet facing shortages of qualified applicants.

Perhaps Australia is no different.

Pay freezes?

[stormfury]

One thing to note is that at least a the Q, most are getting their initial narrow body command at age 40+, and could expect to be in that position for 7 to 10 years. The vast bulk of 737 captains are >50 years of age, this is the junior fleet.

This report has done the rounds before (US centric) but I’m yet to see anything that refutes it. The US regionals are ‘recruiting aggressively’ although it looks as though either Australia doesn’t have a current shortage soon to be compounded by impending retirements or there is a lot of ostrich impersonators in the airline management ranks, given it’s just around the corner.
Airline pilot retirements at several of the US airlines begin to increase in 2021. Peak pilot retirements for American is 2023, Delta is 2022, United and Southwest are 2026. By the end of 2026, ~42% of the active pilot workforce at the five largest airlines will retire. On average, American leads the industry in pilot retirements with ~790 pilots retiring each year from now through 2026. We continue to expect pilots to be poached from the regional carriers to backfill the retirements at the mainline carriers. The regional carriers will need to aggressively recruit pilots in an attempt to navigate pilot attrition.
https://static01.nyt.com/files/2018/business/Pilot_Retirements_Accelerate_Beginning_In_2021_Peak_In_2025_ Cowen_and_Company.pdf

[AerocatS2A]

There's that "poached" word again. Maybe the American's aren't so capitalist after all.

[bafanguy]

Stormfury,
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.

Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:

.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”

I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired. :rolleyes:

[A Squared]

There's that "poached" word again. Maybe the American's aren't so capitalist after all.

Like a lot of places, they're big proponents of market forces, ... right up to the point that market forces are requiring them to do something they don't want to to. Like increase their pay scales.

[Rated De]

There's that "poached" word again. Maybe the American's aren't so capitalist after all.

Capitalism would actually ensure many of the so called ' airline industry leaders' were never allowed more than model aircraft. A decade of historical low interest rates, quantitative easing and cheap cash sloshing around has its limits. Other than asset prices outstripping value metrics, it sure isn't capitalism

In the interim globalisation allowed outsourcing, offshoring of entire industries. Business leaders counted bonuses as labour costs fell, industry after another outsourced or sent overseas where there exist no such things as paid vacations, occupational work place standards and regulatory oversight.

Sadly for airline managers, globalisation is a two way street. Pilots are relatively mobile.

Like a lot of places, they're big proponents of market forces, ... right up to the point that market forces are requiring them to do something they don't want to to. Like increase their pay scales.

Whilst you are correct, improving supply is not going to happen with the improvement of conditions. Whole empires are built on not doing that.
Again, the Achille's heel of their pilot model is unlimited supply. They will do everything before improving the supply by returning some of what they stripped out in the previous three decades.

[stormfury]

Stormfury,
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.

Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:

.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”

I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired. :rolleyes:
Hi Bafanguy

Yeah that report is a bit of a primer for the ongoing discussion. The solution is the hard, and initially expensive, part (cheaper than parking jets though).

That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons. I’d imagine share holders are well aware a shortage is imminent (globally at least) and can probably understand the requirement to invest in pilot training i the short-term - I’d hate to be having to throw money at pilot trading while simultaneously upgrading your fleet on the back of rising fuel prices. That might be a tough sell but I guess that’s why they’re on the big dollars.

Even if the airlines started training today there is still going to be some time (years?) before those youngsters are ready for the RHS. As always a ‘black swan’ event could occur that will cripple the industry (9/11, SARS etc) but I just don’t see something like that will have a long term impact on the required numbers.

The point you raise about CFIs is becoming all too familiar. They’re getting swept up into airlines/regionals/corporate precisely because of their CFI quals - a bit of ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’.

I’ll refrain from delving into the HR issue, it’s been covered and is unlikely to change until jets are being parked on a regular basis.

Im sure it’ll all work out, always does! I guess why the CEOs can justify their pay packets.

Cheers

SF

[framer]

That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons. I’d imagine share holders are well aware a shortage is imminent (globally at least) and can probably understand the requirement to invest in pilot training
The board rooms will be creating strategy to navigate through the next decade or so of pilot shortages but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will be approaching it from the point of being a training provider. That is a fairly obvious solution and no doubt one that many airlines will opt for but.....is it cheaper than being an employer of choice? It may well be better for the bottom line to position an individual airline as a desireable place to work by offering individuals choice around their schedules combined with moderate remuneration.
There is a lot of value ( carrot) locked up by rigid rostering systems. Given the choice, pilot A might choose to work 2 weeks on 2 weeks off, while pilot B might work flat out chasing money, pilot C might opt for 3 weeks on, 1 week off. As it stands at most Airlines all three pilots have to work a full roster if they want a job, as a result, only one is content and not open to the idea of changing companies if a better lifestyle option comes along.
At first glance building roster options like this into a company looks expensive but it can and has been done to the benefit of both pilots and the company.
The company doesn’t necessarily have to pay the world to attract and hold pilots, they have yet to tap into the other side of the pay/lifestyle equation and I’d be surprised if some don’t head down this road.

[FightDeck]

Compelling reading that document on legacy US pilot Shortages. Add them to the dozens others have posted and continue to feature almost weekly.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.

[krismiler]

Flight crew planning at an established legacy such as QF must be one of the easiest jobs going. No turnover with people leaving for other airlines, a certain percentage retiring or losing their licences on medical grounds, and limited expansion to plan for. So why the current mess ?

Understandable with a rapidly growing low cost at the mercy of recruitment from the majors who can decimate their pilot ranks just as new aircraft arrive and routes open but not for QF.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Compelling reading that document on legacy US pilot Shortages. Add them to the dozens others have posted and continue to feature almost weekly.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.




FlightDeck, your only telling half the US story, let Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger tell the other half (advance the video to 1:40).

8kePiiZ8_YA?t=1m38s

[Left 270]

I’m sure they would love to have those 60% back now..

[Dark Knight]

Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger succinctly tells it as it is.

Unfortunately the Clerks professing to be the airline management of today find themselves, incapable, unwilling to listen let alone comprehend the future. They will continue to do so until such times aircraft sit upon the ground looking very nice but earning nil revenue. When this is coupled with falling bonuses then, and only then, might they be forced to actually do something.

[bafanguy]

That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons.
Even if the airlines started training today there is still going to be some time (years?) before those youngsters are ready for the RHS.

The point you raise about CFIs is becoming all too familiar. They’re getting swept up into airlines/regionals/corporate precisely because of their CFI quals - a bit of ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’.

SF,

Yep...all things start in the Head Shed.

The supply train here at least seems to be forming in a pattern like the recent University of North Dakota/UAL announcement...and is also a step toward solving the CFI issue. AA has its wholly-owned regionals with a flow, UAL has this program below (and maybe will implement something similar with other university av programs ?)...and Delta is rumored to be near announcing something "industry leading" probably along similar lines. With the extensive university av structure here, the mechanism is in place to supply quite a chunk of the future needs. And there's always street hiring.

Funding for all the students ? I have no idea but the offer of a pathway to a legacy carrier is a powerful carrot:

“Once a UND student is accepted into the program, no further structured interview is required with United. As long as the company is hiring pilots, UND students, who remain eligible, would be offered conditional employment with the airline.”

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/und-united-airlines-announce-pilot-pathway-program/article_64fda772-f43c-5ae5-b4ef-779fc3de7368.html

[Professional Amateur]

A job and a degree is one thing but being paid a commensurate return for their investment is another.

The airlines can team up with colleges but it does little to effect the structural problem of underpayment leading to people choosing other career paths.

[bafanguy]

A job and a degree is one thing but being paid a commensurate return for their investment is another.

The airlines can team up with colleges but is does little to affect the structural problem of underpayment leading to people choosing other career paths.

PA,

I can't dispute your points. Lots of facets to this whole matter.

The interesting thing to follow is how the infrastructure is being arranged to meet the supply issue.

[FightDeck]

[QUOTE=CurtainTwitcher;10170344]FlightDeck, your only telling half the US story, let Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger tell the other half (advance the video to 1:40).

That Committee hearing was in 2009. Almost 9 years ago. Right after the GFC too. Pilot pay at the top majors has risen significantly since then. I don’t think Airline C.E.O. pay was 30 million either to be fair.
As the Cowan study someone else posted quotes, “ As a result of the pilot shortage and the overall recovery in the airline industry, pilot pay has returned to pre-recession, pre-bankruptcy levels.”

Not suggesting that regional pay is not still poor. I was commenting on the majors, the increased pilot bonuses, pay increases and massive looming shortages.

[CurtainTwitcher]

The difference is FlightDeck, I come from the perspective grander sweep of history that defines the current epoch of US airline Industrial Relations as the 1978 deregulation act (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act). I believe that you need to temper what has occurred in the past four or five years in the US with the history of the previous thirty. The US industry went through the most violent, toxic brutal free-for-all bare knuckle bloody cage match fight to the death from 1978 onwards. There were literally no rules, you got away with whatever you could.

Pensions were stolen by investing in the companies own stock to prop up share prices, Oligarchs used airline employees as pawns to be slaughtered. The airlines were put into Chapter 11 reorganisation to allow bankruptcy judges to tear up work contracts, which they did. Even until recently, you had a significant number of US pilots furloughed from the majors to the far ends of the earth to earn a living. The volatility of employment wages and benefits is much more extreme, and necessitates and even allows much more aggressive tactics.

The US industry is a different environment, where you can simply vote to go on strike and cripple an operator without having to go cap in hand to the industrial relations umpire first. Equally, the operator can turn around and declare bankrupt, go into Chapter 11 and decimate wages and benefits. It is a classic boom and bust operating model of "pure capitalism". The US industry had another wildcard, a large supply of highly trained pilots leaving the military. This has now stopped, and in fact the US fighter pilot numbers are 25% below required strength.

The Australian landscape is different, unions have been emasculated much more than in the US. Quite frankly, our biggest bargaining strength is to get the required hours and leave. My understanding is the NZ outpost of QF has a 30% per annum turnover of pilots. These pilots don't even hide their plan to get the experience, switch seats and go elsewhere. A slower process, but one that works within the current rules imposed on us mere mortals by the business elite that have the ear of the legislators. Ultimately it will cost them, but until we can genuinely bargain without having both hands tied behind our backs we are at a power disadvantage.

Fair Work Commission orders NSW rail workers to abandon 24-hour strike (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/fair-work-commission-orders-nsw-rail-workers-to-abandon-24hour-strike-20180125-h0o1s1.html) 25 January 2018
Just before 1.30pm on Thursday, the commission's senior deputy president Jonathan Hamberger ruled that both forms of industrial action "threaten to endanger the welfare of part of the population".

Now the precedent is set, if any part of the population suffers in any way, the ability to withdraw labour can now be deemed illegal, should an employer or other party choose to take this to the FWA commission. I don't believe this is possible to any significant extent in the US.

Ironically, the Chinese Communist Party controlled State Owned Enterprises (SOE) airlines demonstrate almost pure capitalism by bidding up the market price of pilots to grow the industry there. However, good luck enforcing a contract if you are terminated unjustifiably from one of them through the Chinese court system.

In many ways, the $30 million you mention is right out of the US playbook of the raiders. One thing that springs to mind the audacious management buyout LBO attempt of 2005 by the former CEO. I am reminded of the such characters of Frank Lorenzo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Lorenzo) when I view both the current & former CEO. It is almost as if these two have read the history of the industry in the US as written by Thomas Petziner in Hard Landing (essential reading). In many ways, the former was much more in the mould of the swashbuckling pirate raiders of the US deregulation era than the current one.

[Lookleft]

If only those who say that pilots don't have the guts to go on strike in Australia read your post CT. The labour market has been hamstrung ever since the FWC was created.

[Rated De]

If only those who say that pilots don't have the guts to go on strike in Australia read your post CT. The labour market has been hamstrung ever since the FWC was created.

Precisely.
Whether red team or blue team, the ability of organised labour to withdraw their services even when legally protected is now almost impossible.
Qantas tested and found support in 2011 with the FWC for the lockout and termination provisions. This is precisely why Freehills wanted it that way and why Lucinda Holdforth is gagged.
Lacking a Chapter 11 restructure provision it is hypothesised and research has been published that Qantas manufactured a decline, establishing a narrative to support the ultimate objective: Establish complete workforce acquiescence.

Perhaps the lack of union resistance is axiomatic of this new reality. Unions have allowed this slow march to continue. The lessons of generations past long forgotten as union head after union head wanders along until magically absorbed by the major parties and ending up in Parliament.
One can be assured that the last thing employer groups will support is wage growth. As employer associations are big donors to the major political parties, be assured politicians don't want it either.

[stormfury]

Nothing really new or revolutionary in the article but I did have a good laugh at QANTAS’ newfound ‘social responsibility’ regarding pilot training. What fantastic and responsible global citizens QANTAS management are!

https://www.perthnow.com.au/travel/air-aviation/airlines-struggle-with-pilot-shortage-ng-b88869915z

[JPJP]

Twitcher,

Your username has always cracked me up, and there’s a lot of good stuff in your post. I’ve only left the stuff that i perceive to be incorrect, and your excellent recommendation at the end

The US industry is a different environment, where you can simply vote to go on strike and cripple an operator without having to go cap in hand to the industrial relations umpire first. Equally, the operator can turn around and declare bankrupt, go into Chapter 11 and decimate wages and benefits.

No. You cannot strike at the drop of a hat. In fact, the record for negotiating a new contract (EBA) approaches seven years, with no strike allowed. No Contract expires, they become ‘amenable’. The pilot group is then left negotiating for years with the old contract in place. It’s almost impossible to strike. I can think of only two in the last 20 years (happy to be corrected).

Bankruptcy laws changed years ago. They can’t dump the pensions anymore. Only American Airlines failed to sneak one in before the law changed. Guess who kept their pensions ? ;) Frozen. But they kept their money.

To sum up, the industry has changed fundamentally from a boom and bust cycle, to the current steady rate. Listen to any Investor call after quarterly earnings - the large funds lose their mind if they hear growth above 5%. Of course the next SARS, or recession would affect the industry. But it’s not self immoliating anymore.

This has now stopped, and in fact the US fighter pilot numbers are 25% below required strength

They continue to arrive in flocks. You can’t throw a beercan without hitting one in a new hire class. 50% of new hires are military and thousands have been hired in the last few years.

I am reminded of the such characters of Frank Lorenzo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Lorenzo) when I view both the current & former CEO. It is almost as if these two have read the history of the industry in the US as written by Thomas Petziner in Hard Landing (https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Landing-Contest-Profits-Airlines-ebook/dp/B004CFAWIY) (essential reading). In many ways, the former was much more in the mould of the swashbuckling pirate raiders of the US deregulation era than the current one.

Well said. One of the few individuals that have been banned from operating an airline or within the airline industry. Hard Landing is essential reading.

Cheers

[pilotchute]

The USA is the only country that cares about pilots having a degree. Emirates does ha e a crewing problem but you don't meet the mins for them. Qatar don't seem to ever have a shortage of applicants.

I assume by you referring to your "ATP" you are US based? There are bucket loads of jobs in the usa now. Why look overseas?

[donpizmeov]

Might still be a bit low houred for EK. Think it's 2000Hrs on over 20t. So you would be close .

[CurtainTwitcher]

Original (https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-facing-a-serious-shortage-of-airline-pilots-95699) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20180714042727/https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-facing-a-serious-shortage-of-airline-pilots-95699) (without charts)



Opinion: The U.S. has a shortage of pilots — and it’s going to get worse
By
PETER GALL

Published: July 13, 2018 9:53 a.m. ET

Even the Navy and Air Force forecast pilot shortages within a few years

The national security of the U.S. relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes – and highly skilled pilots to operate them.

However, the U.S. has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration (https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/), there were about 827,000 pilots in the U.S. in 1987. Over the last three decades, that number has decreased by 30 percent.

Meanwhile, during this time period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2017-10-24-01.aspx). The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.

This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the U.S. airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse.

I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmforum.com-vbulletin/1548x884/screen_shot_2018_07_14_at_2_37_58_pm_5074c9cae55b5476f6c4548 cfbf691f41bf79429.pngIndustry changesIn the 1970s, when most of today’s airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached US$300,000 in today’s dollars for some international pilots.

What’s more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline.

Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.

This is due in part to deregulation. The 1978 Airline Deregulation Act (http://m.aviationweek.com/blog/law-changed-airline-industry-beyond-recognition-1978)kicked off the era of the low-cost carrier. As a result, airlines such as Pan-Am went out of business.

Then, the 9/11 attacks left the airlines in poor financial condition (https://www.mcgill.ca/iasl/files/iasl/aspl613_paul_dempsey_airlinebankruptcies2012.pdf). Five of the six major legacy airlines in the U.S. declared bankruptcy: US Airways, Delta, Northwest, United and American Airlines. I clearly recall a day a couple of weeks after 9/11, when one of my flights, from Washington D.C. to Orlando, Florida, boarded just one passenger.

From my own experience, I can attest to many pilots like myself who were forced to vacate their captain position and go back to first officer, resulting in their pay dropping from roughly $190,000 per year to $75,000 per year.Fewer new pilotsMeanwhile, the number of pilots supplied by the military has dwindled. Much of this is due to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles.

In the 80s, roughly two-thirds of airline pilots were ex-military. Recently, that percentage has dropped to less than one-third. The Navy predicts a 10 percent pilot shortage in 2020 (https://m.usni.org/usni-blog), while the Air Force predicts its own 1,000-pilot shortage by 2022 (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/04/11/the-militarys-stunning-fighter-pilot-shortage-one-in-four-billets-is-empty/).

This means many young aspiring aviators now have to pay for their own flight training. That can be very costly, easily exceeding $100,000, especially in light of an uncertain future. Many are simply unwilling to take the risk. This effect was aggravated by the Great Recession (https://www.thebalance.com/2007-financial-crisis-overview-3306138).

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmforum.com-vbulletin/1592x920/screen_shot_2018_07_14_at_2_37_45_pm_4f398955749f76f415b3197 27888f2d5a60531e9.png


In 2009, Congress changed the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/12/11/AR2007121101884.html?noredirect=on) from 60 to 65. In my view, this didn’t solve the problem, but merely kicked the can down the road.

A 2016 report by Boeing (http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/about-our-market/assets/downloads/cmo_print_2016_final.pdf) shows that 42 percent of the pilots currently flying for the major airlines in the U.S. will reach their mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 10 years.

Meanwhile, this move crippled the career advancements of the more junior, younger pilots. That’s caused many of them – including myself – to seek a more stable career.

If that’s not enough, there have been significant changes in the work and rest rules for airline pilots. After the Colgan crash near Buffalo in 2009 (https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/AAR1001.aspx), Congress changed the pilot experience requirements for the airlines (https://www.tmtindustryinsider.com/2014/04/the-effect-of-the-1500-hour-rule-and-new-pilot-certification-and-qualification-requirements-for-air-carrier-operations/). Newly hired pilots must now have a certificate which requires a minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time. Prior to this law being passed, pilots could fly for an airline with a minimum of 250 flight hours.
Growing demandThe other side of the shortage problem is that demand for well-trained pilots is actually increasing. The greatest demand is in Asia and the Pacific regions (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2017-10-24-01.aspx).

Manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus (https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook/) are delivering more and more airplanes (https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/record-global-aircraft-deliveries-in-2017-boeing-ahead-of-airbus-again-but-behind-on-order-backlog-393914) and plan to continue to do so over the next 20 years.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmforum.com-vbulletin/1522x888/screen_shot_2018_07_14_at_2_38_09_pm_1cc1112e2fc88ef2b7d55d5 ac45cc49a2a267d2b.png



Congress also changed the duty time rules in 2010 to mitigate pilot fatigue issues (https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsKey=12445). This change meant airlines had to increase their pilot staffing by 5 to 8 percent in order to cover the same schedule (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249315130_An_Investigation_of_the_United_States_Airline_Pilo t_Labor_Supply). In other words, they need to hire even more qualified pilots.

The U.S. major airlines are not yet directly experiencing the pilot shortage. But smaller regional airlines are experiencing this firsthand. Their schedules have been reduced and some, such as Republic, have been forced into bankruptcy as a result of inadequate staffing (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2016/02/27/why-republic-airways-filed-bankruptcy-even-though-s-profitable/81035522/).

The industry has taken a few steps to address this problem. Regional airlines now offer much higher pay and even signing bonuses. Also, there have been some minor amendments to the 1,500-hour rule. Pilots can now receive their certificate in fewer than 1,500 hours if training takes place at certain flight schools (https://www.flyingmag.com/senate-amendment-could-alter-1500-hour-pilot-rule). There’s even talk of extending the retirement age again to 67.

In my view, these steps alone will not solve this problem. Airlines need to consider forming their own pipeline. The airlines will need to begin recruiting and training their own pilot candidates. For example, in April, American Airlines, where I used to work, announced the American Airlines Cadet Academy (http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2018/American-Airlines-Announces-New-Program-to-Recruit-Next-Generation-of-Pilots-With-Launch-of-Cadet-Academy/default.aspx), with the intent of recruiting the next generation of pilots.

[Roller Merlin]

Sully nailed it. In addition, young people nowadays have so many more options, don't want hardships, and don't get the stimulus of previous generations.

In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.

[Rated De]

Sully nailed it. In addition, young people nowadays have so many more options, don't want hardships, and don't get the stimulus of previous generations.

In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.

In demographics is destiny.
Combined with vicious anti staff rhetoric (which was dialed up by Ryanair and their ilk) has created a storm unprecedented.

Whilst IR collectively scratches its head how best to continue a three decade reduction in labour unit costs (pilot terms and conditions) the shortage grows.

They will do everything, wonder how long it takes until they start doing the right thing?

[cnnnn1]

As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years.

This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.

I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.

In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.

A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.

Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.

This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.

[bafanguy]

Whilst IR collectively scratches its head...

They will do everything, wonder how long it takes until they start doing the right thing?

Well, seats will be filled but:

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."

Thomas Sowell

[gordonfvckingramsay]

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."


Love this saying and it is this concept that has led me to withdraw all of that good will and flexibility that make airlines tick. There are few professions (if any) that are not recognised as a true profession where an individual can be solely responsible for so many lives, including their own, be blamed for the actions of others and yet not be truly at fault.

[DUXNUTZ]

As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years (based on a CASA decision not even based on the most appropriate medical evidence available).

This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.

I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.

In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.

A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.

Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.

This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.

Well said. I learnt to fly back in 2000 and amongst my group of 8 or 10 that started I think only 2-3 of us are still in the profession. It’s a damning one I agree, even after making it to one of the 2 major airlines in Oz you see the rosters, the way you’re treated by management, the time spent away from home and it’s just not worth the money on offer. I moved o.s. and whilst many of the previous gripes still hold true at least the money is better.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Thank you for your fine contribution recounting your own experiences with this industry cnnnn1 (https://www.pprune.org/members/459512-cnnnn1).

You mirror the experiences of many many pilots who start in this industry. Yes, it is an enormously risky gamble, unfortunately luck, chance & uncertainty play a significant role in success or failure in this industry. For most people it really is a one-shot roll of the dice given the binary nature of qualifications. A CPL has a large net negative financial value unless working for a large RPT operator as a pilot.

Here is something I wrote back in 2016 (completely different topic, yet also highly relevant) that reinforces your experiences
Are you actually a pilot Orange Future? I note this question has previously been asked. Because, if not, it is very difficult to understand the risks, determination, no, sheer bloody-mindedness that is required to make it into a jet in this region. Every single pilot who you see walking through the terminal has demonstrated, at some point in their career a rare ruthless determination to succeed, usually prior to the point before there is any guarantees. They have totally committed every single one of their chips to a single hand. If you haven't been there, it is difficult to understand the pain & anguish of the process. Perhaps that is why airlines are desperate to attempt to broaden the base, people are no longer willing to take such risks, or they perceive the pay-off to be too low.
2016 post #155 (https://www.pprune.org/showthread.php?p=9362135)

However, this is a very old story, originally written by the father of modern economics, Adam Smith in 1776 in the Wealth Of Nations (http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN4.html). Substitute any occupation that requires a great deal of expense or career risk for that of the law student in Smith's example. He was merely observing what had gone on for a very long time.

10.1.25 The probability that any particular person shall ever be qualified for
the employment to which he is educated, is very different in different occupations.
In the greater part of mechanic trades, success is almost certain; but very
uncertain in the liberal professions. Put your son apprentice to a shoemaker,
there is little doubt of his learning to make a pair of shoes: But send him
to study the law, it is at least twenty to one if ever he makes such proficiency
as will enable him to live by the business. In a perfectly fair lottery, those
who draw the prizes ought to gain all that is lost by those who draw the blanks.
In a profession where twenty fail for one that succeeds, that one ought to
gain all that should have been gained by the unsuccessful twenty. The
counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to
make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than
twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
How extravagant soever the fees of counsellors at law may sometimes
appear, their real retribution is never equal to this.

Compute in any particular place, what is likely to be annually gained, and what is likely
to be annually spent, by all the different workmen in any common trade, such as that
of shoemakers or weavers, and you will find that the former sum will generally exceed
the latter. But make the same computation with regard to all the counsellors and students
of law, in all the different inns of court, and you will find that their annual gains bear but a
very small proportion to their annual expence, even though you rate the former as high,
and the latter as low, as can well be done. The lottery of the law, therefore, is very far
from being a perfectly fair lottery; and that, as well as many other liberal and honourable
professions, is, in point of pecuniary gain, evidently under-recompenced.


Reflect on Smith's words carefully:"The counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
...
their real retribution is never equal to this"


In essence, Smith is saying that many professions undertake great financial risk to train, those that succeed should capture the cost of the training expenses and foregone income for all trainees for years of lowly toil. Overall, they never capture the full amount lost by those who fail. In other words, in modern financial terms, flying training, like the law in Smith's time, on average, likely to be a negative sum game.

[neville_nobody]

Part of the wider issue in the fall of people taking up aviation is just the sheer amount of effort/cost required to get anywhere near a decent paying airline job and the fact that you are totally beholden to your employer for your income once you get there. Pilots are not professionals by definition and cannot setup shop somewhere and sell their skills like a Doctor/Accountant/Dentist/Lawyer/Engineers can. Add to this problem there is no real means of operating your own business in aviation due to the enormous barriers to entry. So your entire income stream hinges on the success/failure of your airline executive.

It is also interesting to note too that these executives are all too keen to openly talk about and foster 'executive talent' and create 'career pathways' to keep office dwellers in a job. So much so they will just create jobs out of thin air to keep people in the business.

Pilots however have had their flying careers isolated and destroyed by sub contracting and the silo affect of airline businesses.Then add to all this inflexible rostering, hard line industrial stances with a lifetime of permanent shift work, does not make for a pleasant outlook. Personally I think the issues around the lack of rostering/lifestyle flexibility is going to really blow up airlines in the future as the younger generation are just not going to put up with it. People that essentially work Mon-Fri Office hours are complaining about work flexibility now, let alone with permanently shifting rosters, weekends, public holidays, Xmas etc. It is no wonder that the younger generation are walking away.

[Seagull201]

As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years.

This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.

I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.

In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.

A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.

Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.

This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.

I'm sure that every person is quite aware of the road ahead of them, to becoming a Commercial pilot, prior to the commencement of any flying training.
It's explained to every person, that wants to be a Commercial pilot, that a "license" can become invalid at anytime, if they cannot hold a class 1 medical certificate.
If a person cannot hold a Class 1 medical, it means, something has gone wrong with the body, which is beyond a person's control.

It's also explained to every person, prior to commencing their first training flight, that there's no guarantee of getting a flying job, after completion of a CPL qualification.
Any person that wants to enter this "pilot game", is well aware of the pitfalls along the way to a commercial flying career.
Everyone knows the beast (aviation) they are up against and the medical and flying licenses and standards that must be maintained, to work in any aviation job.

I have "no sympathy", for any person that has done their flying training and spent over 100K in training, and cannot find a job in aviation.
I'm sorry, but people knew what they were signing up for, prior to taking their first training flight.
There's no use in people crying after all the time (years) and money's spend.
There's no point in people blaming the aviation industry, everyone's aware of the challenges involved.
Obviously, if a person cannot get an aviation job (any), they will have to enter the workforce or study something else.

It's not that glamorous in other careers, i know quite a few people that completed I.T and Accounting degrees, and couldn't get into that type of work.
The first year of University drop out rate is currently at 20%, because people find the course too hard or feel, it wasn't what they expected.

There's a world wide demand for Commercial pilots at all levels of aviation, a person has to be in it to win it, same as the lottery,
but a person must also posses the required flying and medical qualifications, to get to the next level.
It really isn't that hard to be a pilot!

[mattyj]

Seagull I think you give too much credit to the flight schools and young people’s ability to see the future clearly! For one, the average training organization has a very slick marketing campaign running these days which give kids (19-25) a fairly unrealistic outlook on the industry. It’s not designed to give the prospective student a balanced view of a 50 year career path for sure.
And we all know how bulletproof we were when we were in our 20’s!? Blocked coronary, prostate issues, Laser eye surgery and blood pressure ain’t on your radar back then.

Wisdom is something life beats into you

[framer]

Personally I think the issues around the lack of rostering/lifestyle flexibility is going to really blow up airlines in the future as the younger generation are just not going to put up with it. People that essentially work Mon-Fri Office hours are complaining about work flexibility now, let alone with permanently shifting rosters, weekends, public holidays, Xmas etc. It is no wonder that the younger generation are walking away.
Agree. Even at the higher/highest levels of the industry the lifestyle is not what it was 10-15 years ago. There has been no progress around rosters that leave people spent. In fact, my experience is that it has got more tiring with the recent introduction of popular rostering software. There is very little flexibility around roster options, it’s a one size fits all scenario most of the time when the reality is that one size doesn’t fit all. The result? The job is less attractive than it used to be right at the time when retirements are ramping up. Many forty-something Captains that I know are not planning on remaining in the industry longer than is absolutely necessary, ie they are Engineering an early retirement or change of career.
Having meaningful input to building their own roster would completely reverse that attitude.

[logansi]

Agree. Even at the higher/highest levels of the industry the lifestyle is not what it was 10-15 years ago. There has been no progress around rosters that leave people spent. In fact, my experience is that it has got more tiring with the recent introduction of popular rostering software. There is very little flexibility around roster options, it’s a one size fits all scenario most of the time when the reality is that one size doesn’t fit all. The result? The job is less attractive than it used to be right at the time when retirements are ramping up. Many forty-something Captains that I know are not planning on remaining in the industry longer than is absolutely necessary, ie they are Engineering an early retirement or change of career.
Having meaningful input to building their own roster would completely reverse that attitude.

One thing I think we have to remember is that - is it just the Aviation industry, i'd argue that over the past 15-30 years most jobs have seen lifestyle get worse. Aviation has lost much of the pride and prestige it once had - but is there any job that it any more?

[framer]

I’m not sure about other industries but maybe that’s a good point?
Personally I don’t care about prestige but I do care about pride. The pride I hold is affected by the modern methods of rostering because I am no longer as good as I can be. What I mean by that is that I used to be able to fly a roster AND keep across all changes to SOP’s, changes to law, revisit and refresh my systems knowledge, checklist procedures, investigate recurrent Notams in detail, and generally feel like I was on top of my game. Now, in 2018, by the time I have landed, driven home, said hello to my family and caught some sleep it is time to go again, often without ever making up the sleep I lost from the shift I have just finished. There is no time available to take myself from being ‘generally competent’ to being a proud professional. I have noticed that the folk who stand out as being completely on top of all the changes and updates either don’t have a family at home ( single or partner with no children) , or they prioritise work over family with the inevitable results.
The career could be completely changed for the better for only moderate cost if the airlines looked seriously at providing pilots with meaningful input to their rosters. Eg, busy phase of life with young kids at home? Choose a 75% roster and accept the 25% pay cut. Young and newly married wanting to buy a house? Choose an ‘unrestricted full roster’.Three years from retirement and financially sorted but still enjoy the flying? Choose a 50/50 roster and take the 50% pay cut. Night owl? Choose a preference for lates. Early bird? Choose a preference for earlies. Enjoy seeing different cities? Choose a preference for night stops.
it can be done for only a small outlay. It just takes the will.

[George Glass]

Current Airline managers are doing their best to prove that Karl Marx was right.The deterioration of work-life style balance is becoming critical across the industry.I've been in the game for 35 years and never seen it so bad.Young ambitious people out there? Dont even think about it.

[framer]

I suspect that if a young ambitious person started their training tomorrow it might actually work out ok for them.
The graphic in the post above shows US retirements peaking in 2024, I imagine the demographics are fairly similar globally.
The airlines are going to have to try and keep their experienced Captains within their Airline as other Airlines try to lure them away over the next 5-10 years with bigger money and better rosters. When the numbers are crunched I am guessing that providing roster flexibility will be more cost effective than offering larger salaries. That’s my guess based on the fact that I would happily take a 10% pay cut to get another two days off per month, or even a 20% pay cut to get an extra 4 days off per month.

[t_cas]

I would be happier with the extra time off WITHOUT the pay cuts.
Would go some way to actually addressing the root of the problem.
The game is to improve conditions, not trade them away. Any 10-20% pay reduction will simply be redistributed into executive salary.
What improvement would that demostrate?
Self worth starts with self.

[morno]

That’s my guess based on the fact that I would happily take a 10% pay cut to get another two days off per month, or even a 20% pay cut to get an extra 4 days off per month.


You would give up 10% of your salary to get 2 days off extra a month?

You’re severely underestimating your worth Framer.

[ExtraShot]

I would be happier with the extra time off WITHOUT the pay cuts.

+1, I’m not voting yes to any pay cut for any reason ever.

Pilots haven’t had this much bargaining power in generations, for God’s Sake grow some balls and use it.

[framer]

You’re severely underestimating your worth Framer.
for God’s Sake grow some balls and use it.
You guys are missing the point, you assume that money is as important to me as it is to you. It may not be. Giving me options and choice over when I work is more valuable to me than increasing my hourly rate. Ps, I think my hourly rate is fair, you may not think yours is fair.

[ExtraShot]

I didn’t miss your point at all. I disagree with it (though you’re completely free to have it).

Pilots now now have the upper hand, enough so, that flexible rostering practices should be pursued alongside increases in other terms and conditions, especially pay, NOT in exchange for it.

[Keg]

Framer’s talking about flying less. Not about taking a pay rate cut. I’d be happy to drop a few hours at the moment too!

Nothing in my statement or Framer’s precludes pilots from seeking better terms and conditions.

[ExtraShot]

I realise Framer is actually talking about flexi lines or the like.

Even if your Agreement allows you to take them, good luck getting those at times like the present, right when people might want them. So trading off anything to get them inckuded in the first place is ultimately pointless.

[Keg]

Even if your Agreement allows you to take them, good luck getting those at times like the present, right when people might want them.

I think that was framer’s point too. I don’t think framer was recommending trading anything off to get them, rather that airlines should be aiming for an establishment that would enable them. This would likely increase engagement, decrease sick leave, etc. Anyway, suspect we’re all in furious agreement and preaching largely to the choir on this issue.

[framer]

You wouldn’t be trading away any hourly rate. You’d simply be choosing how and when you want to work and lifestyle improvements don’t preclude locking in market rates for the job.
Put it this way, there comes a point when the lifestyle is so rubbish that the money can’t make up for it because your health and relationships suffer. People walk away and others don’t join. I’m just saying that I think Airlines will realise that giving pilots choice in their rosters is a cost effective way of maintaining a stable workforce. Maintaining a stable workforce is becoming an issue for Airlines. It shouldn’t take them too long to analyse the options and their relative costs.

[mattyj]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503708&objectid=12088537

if the cancer doesn’t get ya..the Alzheimer’s will!

..and if that doesn’t get ya..the Alzheimer’s will!

[ExtraShot]

Anyway, suspect we’re all in furious agreement and preaching largely to the choir on this issue.

Indeed, I reckon you’re right. The mere mention of ‘pay cut’ these days gets me antsy... I know what you’re on about Framer, perhaps we can all get what we expect out of things this time around, and perhaps it’ll make the career attractive to the youngsters again and put a dent in this shortage.

[Street garbage]

There should be scope in bidding for much wider divisors ie +/- 20 hours..it would allow those chasing the coin more scope for additional, whilst the rest of us could get more time off...
Of course, that would require management to have correct crewing numbers so we are not bouncing of our respective hour limits...so it's not going to happen soon..if ever.

[George Glass]

Framer,I wish you were right but,alas modern airline managers are impervious to reason.Its like dealing with a beady eyed Doberman.They just dont care.Rosters are built by clerks who are totally disconnected from the outcome of their efforts.Rosters are built to minimum cost;job done, KPI's met.Pilots lives ruined;zero consequence,no need to change.Same as purchasing department buying crap hotel accommodation.Pissed off Pilots but,again,KPI's met,and no consequence.Outcome disconnected from consequence.The only,and ONLY,consequence that managers understand is when they can't crew aircraft and flights are cancelled.But we keep saving their sorry arses.We can't help ourselves.Pilots are their own worst enemies.

[Rabbitwear]

If QF dumped all the maggots and used only Widebodies the Pilot shortage would end !

[George Glass]

Troll alert

[Street garbage]

If QF dumped all the maggots and used only Widebodies the Pilot shortage would end !
Yeah, that would work well. The segment that subsidises all OneStar forays into Asia and all the "less than optimal" decisions that QF management make.
Stop trolling on PPrune, stop lining up for coffee in the Street, go back to your cubicle.

[roundsounds]

Framer,I wish you were right but,alas modern airline managers are impervious to reason.Its like dealing with a beady eyed Doberman.They just dont care.Rosters are built by clerks who are totally disconnected from the outcome of their efforts.Rosters are built to minimum cost;job done, KPI's met.Pilots lives ruined;zero consequence,no need to change.Same as purchasing department buying crap hotel accommodation.Pissed off Pilots but,again,KPI's met,and no consequence.Outcome disconnected from consequence.The only,and ONLY,consequence that managers understand is when they can't crew aircraft and flights are cancelled.But we keep saving their sorry arses.We can't help ourselves.Pilots are their own worst enemies.
ain’t that the truth!

[stormfury]

...stop lining up for coffee in the Street, go back to your cubicle.LOL! Thanks, that comment made my day.

[Rabbitwear]

Not trolling, The 330 and 787 will fit into every 45m RWY in Australia domestically, it’s a great way to ease air traffic density at the major airports and would require less crew. Same amount of passengers carried for a loss in frequency, that’s all !

[Keg]

Qantas did this in the late ‘90s and early 2000s. It was called CityFlyer and it involved mainly 767s every half hour between SYD- MEL for most of the day. Then came Virgin Blue which killed off Ansett. Then Qantas created Jetstar to ensure Virgin Blue didn’t get too big for its boots. Now Qantas sends 737s every half hour for most of the day and Jetstar sends A320s some of the day. They could get rid of Jetstar and introduce 140 ‘Jetstar class’ tickets on a mainline widebody and decrease the SYD- MEL traffic by about 20%. Probably make just as much money too. Of course, they’d need to invest in mainline to do it.

[Street garbage]

Not trolling, The 330 and 787 will fit into every 45m RWY in Australia domestically, it’s a great way to ease air traffic density at the major airports and would require less crew. Same amount of passengers carried for a loss in frequency, that’s all !


45m runways is one thing, finding bays for 60m a/c in SYD/ MEL/ BNE is completely another. Business travellers want frequency (along with OTP it is one of there major requirements), only having approx 3/4 bays at these ports, with a massive decrease in frequency would send them to VOZ. Another management troll, might want to to think about the details before you announce something (Jetstar HK, RED Q??). No soup (or should I say, KPI's) for you.
It always AMAZES me how the number of management post's are linked directly to how close EBA negotiations are.

[Rated De]

For those looking for validation that the pilot shortage is down under....

A rumoured stoush is brewing between Qantas Airways limited and Sydney Airport over the rising cancellation rates.

Citing media stories regarding the shortage, it is rumoured that Sydney Airport are concerned that a growing cancellation rate shows no signs of abating.

Naturally, the operators of the best monopoly airport in the South Hemisphere have little interest in social responsibility and are more inclined to screw the populous, just because they can are concerned.

Concerned that flight cancellation rates are increasing and now beginning to impact aeronautical revenues (take offs, departures and gate use etc) dialogue is reportedly being established with Fort Fumble...

If the rumours are true and Qantas are now beginning parking the 737 fleet, one wonders where the surplus aircraft could be hidden? Early money may well be on Avalon Victoria. (camouflage nets optional)

[Chris2303]

A fair few of those cancellations are due to ATFM restrictions at MEL and the restrictions imposed by single runway ops at SYD.

[Toruk Macto]

Cancellations must be happening everywhere but places like Singapore , Dubai and Hong Kong the airlines may have a bit more leverage over airport management ? Appears not to be the case in Sydney .

[Australopithecus]

Surely specific aircraft are not actually being parked? I expect that the equivalent reduction in hours (900-1200 per month) would be spread throughout the fleet with every hull doing 4% less work per month.

I had to laugh at the suggestion of using widebodies on domestic. Which aircraft? Parked on which gates? Both are in critically short supply already, and you cannot make a case for flying a new widebody only nine hours a day. And if you pay 5.5 hrs credit for three hours of flying then your pilot supply problem only improves incrementally. And congestion in this country is a political, not technical, problem.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

I had to laugh at the suggestion of using widebodies on domestic. Which aircraft? Parked on which gates? Both are in critically short supply already, and you cannot make a case for flying a new widebody only nine hours a day.

But imagine if as well as the current 330s, you had a fleet of, say, 14 widebodies with 47.5 m span and about 220-250 seats, that weren’t brand new and didn’t owe you much. Wouldn’t that be a handy thing on the domestic network?

Oh. Oops.

[Australopithecus]

Yeah, that old common-sense gambit, eh INTBH? I heard recently that ANA ordered some new build 767s. Given the similar geometry of our domestic network such a thing would actually be closer to meeting our needs than we currently employ.

The -321 might also be a viable alternative, especially given that wee-man ordered 10e6 of them for JetStar.

[logansi]

Yeah, that old common-sense gambit, eh INTBH? I heard recently that ANA ordered some new build 767s. Given the similar geometry of our domestic network such a thing would actually be closer to meeting our needs than we currently employ.

The -321 might also be a viable alternative, especially given that wee-man ordered 10e6 of them for JetStar.

the 767's ANA ordered the freighters - the pax model is no longer manufactured/offered by Boeing

[Australopithecus]

the 767's ANA ordered the freighters - the pax model is no longer manufactured/offered by Boeing

Thanks Logansi. I didn't research the veracity of the rumour, but what you say makes sense. At any rate, the world needs a cheap 767 niche aeroplane. The DC-3-2020.

[morno]

Isn’t that supposed to be what Boeing are aiming at with the 797?

[Roller Merlin]

ABC news story clearly held over to a quiet- news Sunday. The old chestnuts of pillaging, poaching and even rapacious plundering of “their pilots”.

Global pilot shortage hits Australia, with cancelled regional routes just the beginning - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-22/airline-passengers-facing-perfect-storm-as-pilot-shortage-bites/10012624)

[Rated De]

ABC news story clearly held over to a quiet- news Sunday. The old chestnuts of pillaging, poaching and even rapacious plundering of “their pilots”.

Global pilot shortage hits Australia, with cancelled regional routes just the beginning - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-22/airline-passengers-facing-perfect-storm-as-pilot-shortage-bites/10012624)


Dare we say it, but many nay-Sayers on this very thread, warning of the 'imminent doom' that any push back by pilots would be met with an influx of overseas applicants (from He alone knows where!) now admit they were wrong?
Australia is not exceptional, demographics there are as bad as the rest of the western hemisphere.

So pilot unions in Australia ought start delivering for their members. Delivering those things surrendered in the decades where supply exceeded demand....

[Popgun]

So pilot unions in Australia ought start delivering for their members. Delivering those things surrendered in the decades where supply exceeded demand....

Unfortunately supply still overwhelmingly exceeds demand at the main carriers in Australia (i.e. QF, JQ, VA and TT). These airlines continue to be able to be very selective.

It is a training pipeline problem...not a problem finding bums for seats. Yes, the US as well as China, the Middle East and other less desirable locations are hurting. Australian majors? Not so much. (Despite the airline Press Releases that are regurgitated as 'news')

I hope I'm proved wrong one day by the change in MO by the HR departments. The termination of psychometric tests, behavioural interview questions and cringe-worthy group exercises in favour of pilot qualification and experience assessment, simulator evaluations and reference checks.

This, coupled with increased remuneration offers and substantively better work/life balance contracts placed desperately on the table by management might mean the pilot shortage had arrived at our shores.

I sincerely hope I live to see it...but I won't hold my breath.

PG

[dragon man]

The only spare capacity in Qantas and I say that tounge in cheek is the 747 especially with it coming off Bne/Lax. But, OJT needs a C check in October so instead of doing it ie short term pain long term gain we shall send it to the desert. Then there’s OEB not due for a check till September next year but what the heck it can go in Feb/March. The lunatics think that in one bid period they will have unclogged the sausage machine and all will be well. ������������ might fly.

[CurtainTwitcher]

"Broken" is a word I hear multiple times a day, it does not matter which department the utterance is in reference too.

"Terminal Decline" has become a self-fulfilling prophecy through stripping training & investment out of the business in order to buy back shares and levitate the share price for today. Tomorrow is arriving too quickly for management to cope.

[downdata]

Isn’t that supposed to be what Boeing are aiming at with the 797?

Yes with an EIS of 2030... if they decide to build it that is...

[Jeps]

Whilst I have no doubt your in a better position to comment on the situation PG many of the things your saying that will be indicators are already occurring. Although when it comes to HR I think the cringe worthy questions etc is just the deluded world they live in and will continue forever more in this industry and every other.

[krismiler]

China is so short of pilots that there literally is no interview. If you pass the medical, written exam, flight test and line training then you have the job. The nearest thing to an interview is checking to make sure your documents are in order.

[jetlikespeeds]

China is so short of pilots that there literally is no interview. If you pass the medical, written exam, flight test and line training then you have the job. The nearest thing to an interview is checking to make sure your documents are in order.

then next minute find yourself doing a touch and go on the grass.

[Toruk Macto]

China is so short of pilots that there literally is no interview. If you pass the medical, written exam, flight test and line training then you have the job. The nearest thing to an interview is checking to make sure your documents are in order.
Todays email saying if you can be airborne by December there is $60K cash bonus .

[Transition Layer]

ABC news story clearly held over to a quiet- news Sunday. The old chestnuts of pillaging, poaching and even rapacious plundering of “their pilots”.

Global pilot shortage hits Australia, with cancelled regional routes just the beginning - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-22/airline-passengers-facing-perfect-storm-as-pilot-shortage-bites/10012624)
I think it’s interesting that the QF S/O who features in the above article has been used in the past by QF PR for the new uniform promotions and other such things.

Have QF wheeled her out for a media story to push their case for 457 visas? (Not an attack on the individual by the way...just wondering if there’s some sinister motives from “The Street” here)

[The Bullwinkle]

The termination of psychometric tests, behavioural interview questions and cringe-worthy group exercises in favour of pilot qualification and experience assessment, simulator evaluations and reference checks.
Virgin and Jetstar now just ask one question.
Are you female?

[LeadSled]

Virgin and Jetstar now just ask one question.
Are you female?

In this era of gender fluidity, and claims that gender is a choice, not a birth defect, you can all answer yes, and the AHRC will back you up!!
You basic choices are CIS/LBTIQUSSGF ---- but some employers recognize a greater range, twenty of more genders.
Tootle pip!!

PS: Based on the anti- discrimination laws your answer should be: Yes.

[blow.n.gasket]

Does one really want to go down that path when one actually considers the potential consequences when CASA AvMed finally catches up with the latest medical practices and research ?FACTS ABOUT SUICIDE

Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death among young people ages 10 to 24.1
LGB youth seriously contemplate suicide at almost three times the rate of heterosexual youth.2
LGB youth are almost five times as likely to have attempted suicide compared to heterosexual youth.2
Of all the suicide attempts made by youth, LGB youth suicide attempts were almost five times as likely to require medical treatment than those of heterosexual youth.2
Suicide attempts by LGB youth and questioning youth are 4 to 6 times more likely to result in injury, poisoning, or overdose that requires treatment from a doctor or nurse, compared to their straight peers.2
In a national study, 40% of transgender adults reported having made a suicide attempt. 92% of these individuals reported having attempted suicide before the age of 25.3
LGB youth who come from highly rejecting families are 8.4 times as likely to have attempted suicide as LGB peers who reported no or low levels of family rejection.4
1 out of 6 students nationwide (grades 9–12) seriously considered suicide in the past year. [5]
Each episode of LGBT victimization, such as physical or verbal harassment or abuse, increases the likelihood of self-harming behavior by 2.5 times on average.6

SOURCES:[1] CDC, NCIPC. Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) [online]. (2010) {2013 Aug. 1}. Available from:www.cdc.gov/ncipc/wisqars.

[2] CDC. (2016). Sexual Identity, Sex of Sexual Contacts, and Health-Risk Behaviors Among Students in Grades 9-12: Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

[3] James, S. E., Herman, J. L., Rankin, S., Keisling, M., Mottet, L., & Anafi, M. (2016). The Report of the 2015 U.S. Transgender Survey. Washington, DC: National Center for Transgender Equality.

[4] Family Acceptance Project™. (2009). Family rejection as a predictor of negative health outcomes in white and Latino lesbian, gay, and bisexual young adults. Pediatrics. 123(1), 346-52.

[5] CDC. (2016). Sexual Identity, Sex of Sexual Contacts, and Health-Risk Behaviors Among Students in Grades 9-12: Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

[6] IMPACT. (2010). Mental health disorders, psychological distress, and suicidality in a diverse sample of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender youths. American Journal of Public Health. 100(12), 2426-32.

[hoss]

Mate, you forgot to attach the phone number for Lifeline.

[LeadSled]

Folks,
Seriously, with the public Diversity and Inclusion programs that are now virtually mandatory at any large(ish) company, and in particular, the announcements by Qantas of planned flightdeck composition, it is clear that the employment prospects for Caucasian heterosexual males, including in the new proposed cadet scheme, are limited.
So, head for the sandpit, China or USA.
Tootle pip!!

[Lookleft]

At the QF Group airline I work at I see plenty of straight white men getting jobs in mainline.I also see plenty of the same demographic replacing them, in fact the SWM are in the majority of the intakes. Nothing to see here but hysteria and homophobia.

[mrdeux]

At the QF Group airline I work at I see plenty of straight white men getting jobs in mainline.I also see plenty of the same demographic replacing them, in fact the SWM are in the majority of the intakes. Nothing to see here but hysteria and homophobia.

Perhaps if you wear that horrid uniform enough, it will make you change!

[Keg]

Luckily Lookleft doesn’t have to wear our abomination.

[73qanda]

I reckon the uniform is sharp.......minus the hat. Get rid of that and it’s pretty sweet.

[LeadSled]

At the QF Group airline I work at I see plenty of straight white men getting jobs in mainline.I also see plenty of the same demographic replacing them, in fact the SWM are in the majority of the intakes. Nothing to see here but hysteria and homophobia.

Lookleft,
I am only summarising Qantas public statements, from the CEO down, plus stock exchange listing rules, as Qantas is a listed stock.
Tootle pip!!

[Lookleft]

it is clear that the employment prospects for Caucasian heterosexual males, including in the new proposed cadet scheme, are limited.
So, head for the sandpit, China or USA.

I'm fairly certain that is all your own opinion that was stated.

[LeadSled]

I'm fairly certain that is all your own opinion that was stated.

Lookleft,
You obviously have not been keeping up with the public policy statements from Qantas re. pilots and a 50% "target" that makes interesting reading, from the CEOs statements downwards. It can be interpreted as 50% female (whatever that means in this day and age) or 50% not- Caucasian heterosexual male.

Nor the enthusiastic Qantas embrace of ASX listing rules as they pertain to the subject of "Diversity and Inclusion" targets.

The logical outcome of these policies is certainly my opinion, a very different flight deck composition to the "traditional", and very different approach to what "qualified for the job" means. Indeed, I think you will find that severely differential selection procedures are now in place, or about to be introduced, to give effect to the above policies.

Tootle pip!!

PS: The current uniform, very Gilbert and Sullivan.

[Lookleft]

LS I also remember an Australian Prime Minister making the rather grand policy statement that no Australian child will be living in poverty by 1990. Often the PPS has no hope of succeeding because of the magnitude of the problem. The basic fact is if there is a requirement for a lot of pilots then it doesn't matter what the publicly proclaimed policy statement is. If the majority of pilots are SWM then the airlines will select them. If your definition of a traditional flight deck is a Captain, First Officer and Second Officer(s) then that is not going to change. If your definition of a traditional flight deck is everyone is homogeneous and talks like they're at an outback pub then yes your traditional flight deck is disappearing. Fleeing to the Middle East China or the US won't change that either, its not just Qantas making policy statements about quotas and diversity.

[neville_nobody]

White people arent very successful breeders on a worldwide scale..in fact some of the most western countries are some of the worst. Being born a woman is a happy accident you can’t do much about..being born non white is becoming more and more likely



The general populous is irrelevant, it's the pilot population that counts. The issue is that aviation, for whatever reason, seems to attract white males. It is not the same in other jobs thats for sure. I saw the graduation photo of my local optometrist who is probably 5 years out of uni and that would be a diversity managers wet dream, 80%+ non caucasian females, and that was at one of Australia's top Unis.

However they get paid 90K straight out of uni, have every weekend and public holiday off, and walk out the door at 1800 at the latest. Maybe that has something to do with the diversity issue in Piloting ranks. Add to this in many countries professional piloting is seen as a job for losers. I have flown with a few people who have non caucasion heritage who parents were not impressed that they wanted to be pilots.

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

RE 'The issue is that aviation, for whatever reason, seems to attract white males.'...……

Perhaps it is just that 'category' who possess the ambition....and....the qualifications...?

Just Sayin'...……
Cheers

[Lookleft]

As a matter of interest what is the gender ratio in ATC? I would guess that it is higher than the 5% female participation in pilot ranks.

[tbfka]

Qantas have stated that around 15% of EOI's for the new pilot cadetship are from females. Assume that proportion transpires for applications when the programs starts. I highly doubt 15% of the actual intake will be females, and I expect to see that number much closer to 50% when the first course graduates, just like the Virgin cadetship. I'd be keen to know what the 'gender diversity' of the Qantas HR department looks like.

[Flyboy1987]

We all know that the VA Cadetship and QF pilot academy is a complete PR stunt. They could walk around the aprons at Jandakot, Broome, darwin, Alice spring and cairns and fill their pilot quota for the next 5 years by lunch time - but then what would happen to all the HR employees, how would they secure their job?

As for the diversity debate, I truely believe I would be a sandwich officer on a qf jet if I had a vagina.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Boeing Forecasts Unprecedented 20-Year Pilot Demand as Operators Face Pilot Supply ChallengesOSHKOSH, Wis., July 23, 2018 /PRNewswire/

-- Boeing [NYSE: BA] today released its 2018 Pilot & Technician Outlook, projecting demand for 790,000 pilots over the next 20 years. This represents double the current workforce and the most significant demand in the outlook's nine-year history.

The demand is being driven by an anticipated doubling of the global commercial airplane fleet — as reported in Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook — as well as record-high air travel demand and a tightening labor supply. This year's outlook also includes data from the business aviation and civil helicopter sectors for the first time.

"Despite strong global air traffic growth, the aviation industry continues to face a pilot labor supply challenge, raising concern about the existence of a global pilot shortage in the near-term," said Keith Cooper, vice president of Training & Professional Services, Boeing Global Services. "An emphasis on developing the next generation of pilots is key to help mitigate this. With a network of training campuses and relationships with flight schools around the globe, Boeing partners with customers, governments and educational institutions to help ensure the market is ready to meet this significant pilot demand."

Boeing offers the Pilot Development Program – an accelerated training program that guides future pilots from early stage ab-initio training through type rating as a first officer – to help operators meet their growing pilot needs. Boeing also helps operators improve crew efficiency with tools that optimize resources and minimize disruption.

Despite the commercial pilot demand forecast holding nearly steady, maintenance technician demand decreased slightly from 648,000 to 622,000, primarily due to longer maintenance intervals for new aircraft. Collectively, the business aviation and civil helicopter sectors will demand an additional 155,000 pilots and 132,000 technicians.

Demand for commercial cabin crew increased slightly from 839,000 to 858,000, due to changes in fleet mix, regulatory requirements, denser seat configurations and multi-cabin configurations that offer more personalized service. In addition, 32,000 new cabin crew will be required to support business aviation.

For more information about the Pilot & Technician Outlook, please visit: Boeing: About Our Market (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market)

For the 2018 Business Environment Update, please visit: Boeing: Boeing Market Insight (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/boeing-market-insight)

About Boeing

Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and leading manufacturer of commercial jetliners and defense, space and security systems. A top U.S. exporter, the company supports airlines and U.S. and allied government customers in more than 150 countries. Boeing products and tailored services include commercial and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communication systems, and performance-based logistics and training. With corporate offices in Chicago, Boeing employs more than 140,000 people across the U.S. and in more than 65 countries.

Contact

Reggie Dotson
Boeing Communications
+ 1 972-586-1358
Cell: +1 469-978-6325
[email protected]


SOURCE Boeing
View original content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-forecasts-unprecedented-20-year-pilot-demand-as-operators-face-pilot-supply-challenges-300684641.html

[Rated De]

View original content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-forecasts-unprecedented-20-year-pilot-demand-as-operators-face-pilot-supply-challenges-300684641.html

Isn't Australia different though?/sarc

Surely as we write this HR are formulating the next scare campaign, to be eagerly shared at coffee shops Australia wide?
What will it be this time? Outsourced flying, base closures or even a 'terminal decline'? Carried by the 'influencers' and cowards to flight decks industry wide this has been normal practice, all predicated on unlimited supply.
Pilots finally have a long sought after opportunity to remind airline management just who contributes the operating revenue.

For airline managers, very reluctantly waking to the reality that globalisation and markets work both ways: The market will clear, dear manager, when the input price rises, pilot conditions (including salary) must rise
For the more academically inclined, what is the relationship between Operating Revenue and pilots and which is the independent variable and which is the dependent?

[STVNBRKBCK]

The USA is the only country that cares about pilots having a degree. Emirates does ha e a crewing problem but you don't meet the mins for them. Qatar don't seem to ever have a shortage of applicants.

I assume by you referring to your "ATP" you are US based? There are bucket loads of jobs in the usa now. Why look overseas?
not from the us..

[PPRuNeUser0198]

There is no pilot shortage. There is a shortage of suitably qualified i.e. hours or type rated pilots. Aircrew numbers are based on projected growth in aviation. In particular, the increase in point-to-point, narrow-body aircraft, with greater range.

From 2015 to 2030, China, India, and the remainder of Asia-Pacific will add 2.1 billion (or 89%) of the nearly 2.4 billion new entrants to the existing 3.2 billion person global middle class. By 2030, presumably China will add around 800 million to the middle class and India more than 900 million alone. This is a considerable volume of people who will travel.

As cASK reduces, a result of (but not limited to) newer technologies and scale economies - this will only see significant growth in the demand in air transportation.


References: Brookings. 2017. THE UNPRECEDENTED EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf.

[CurtainTwitcher]

There is no pilot shortage. There is a shortage of suitably qualified i.e. hours or type rated pilots.
This is the nuance of the situation. Plenty of aspiring wannabe aviators at the base of the pyramid. Huge demand at the top. Training rate and experience (time dependant) are the choke points, the rate limiting step of the entire industry is now training.

Demand expansion at the top of the passenger pyramid (B737/A320 size and above) vastly exceeds the rate of the system ability to train pilots and give them the required experience at the bottom. Anyone who can progress doesn't want to stay as an instructor training PPL/CPL longer than necessary, so there will be a perpetual shortage of instructors. Retiree's for training? Not many want to go back to sitting next to someone trying to kill them, even if they can even hold a medical.

For decades the industry has collectively saved a fortune in training, denying the accumulation of experience to the base. Instead it slowly consuming the human capital of experience as the pilot demographic aged. Now that capital is retiring. It is not retained by the organisation, it just vanishes from the industry. "Experience" simply cannot be conjured from thin air, it a function of time, there is no way around it. There is no commercially viable training program that can implant 5,000 or 10,000 hours of experience into a 500 hour pilots to make them ready to be a jet Captain. Airlines have had experience in spades and took it for granted, until it started retiring en masse.

The signs of this impending situation were evident in 2007/08, however the GFC gave the industry leverage over pilots and suppressed the signal to start large training programs. Little to no succession planning was done in the West.

So really there are three issues:

Retirements taking experience out of the industry
Capacity expansion requiring more experience
Training limitations at the bottom

Based on Boeing's projections - 790,000 Pilots required over the next 20 years. Is it possible that they might be basing their projection on the individual that has the equivalent qualifications and skills (i.e. Theory and Hours) to fly their aircraft? And Airbus manufactured aircraft as well for that matter (i.e. 1,500 hours, ATPL passes and possibly type rated)?

ICAO's General Secretary answered your question in Feb 2018
Our new numbers have revealed that no fewer than 620,000 pilots will be needed by 2036 to fly the
world’s 100-seat-and-larger aircraft, and that 80 percent of these future aviators will be new pilots
who are not yet flying today.

Address by the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Dr. Fang Liu, “Civil Aviation: An Engine of Economic Development (https://www.icao.int/Documents/secretary-general/fliu/20180213_SG_Speech_CORIM_Aviation.pdf)”, page 7


Thought experiment. What is the average time someone can achieve a command of A320 / B737 from the first moment they the moment they start off the street the process of learning to fly in the commercial viable way? Not talking about the Ace's but an average pilot. How far will that put us into the cycle towards 2036/2038?

[atpcliff]

I think I am starting to understand this whole 'pilot shortage' concept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Based on Boeing's projections - 790,000 Pilots required over the next 20 years. Is it possible that they might be basing their projection on the individual that has the equivalent qualifications and skills (i.e. Theory and Hours) to fly their aircraft? And Airbus manufactured aircraft as well for that matter (i.e. 1,500 hours, ATPL passes and possibly type rated)?

And their projection does not include the individuals that are have just qualified as 'Pilot' i.e. CPL and 200 odd hours - entry level. Is this a possibility or not?

I only ask because looking at it that way might make sense why there's still are a considerable amount of individuals graduating with a CPL/IR but into a pool of about 100 other individuals (example).

Whereas the individual passing the 1,500 hour mark and passing ATPL exams, 'graduates' into a pool of say 10 (example) and that is where the shortage is.

It just seems as though they are raising the importance of a shortage but rather a shortage of those on type because there doesn't seem to be a shortage of those flying 152s and 172s.

They should actually then caption it as PILOT SHORTAGE FOR MTOW OF X

In the US, there's a shortage of Student Pilots, Private Pilots, Instrument Pilots, Commercial Pilots, Flight Instructors, ATPs, and Military Pilots.
In Canada, it is similar, but not as bad I think.

[bafanguy]

In the US, there's a shortage of Student Pilots, Private Pilots, Instrument Pilots, Commercial Pilots, Flight Instructors, ATPs, and Military Pilots.
In Canada, it is similar, but not as bad I think.


atpcliff,

Is this the data to which you refer ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/

[atpcliff]

atpcliff,

Is this the data to which you refer ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/

No. Those statistics are not even close to being realistic...the reason is that they count EVERYONE who is training to be a pilot. Since the US has the most airspace, airports, airplanes and flight schools, many foreign airlines train their cadets here, and many foreigners come here for flight training. There are MANY flight schools with a very high percentage of their students who are foreign: They cannot work as CFIs, and cannot work for the US carriers. That is one of the reasons the CFI shortage is so bad...a lot of students need them, and many of the newly minted Comm/Inst pilots dont have a passport or greencard, so can't work as CFIs...

[bafanguy]

No. Those statistics are not even close to being realistic...the reason is that they count EVERYONE who is training to be a pilot. ...many foreign airlines train their cadets here, and many foreigners come here for flight training. There are MANY flight schools with a very high percentage of their students who are foreign...

atpcliff,

I've seen that lots of foreign students train here then leave. Do you know of any data base that doesn't include/removes the foreign students ?

[Global Aviator]

Thought experiment. What is the average time someone can achieve a command of A320 / B737 from the first moment they the moment they start off the streett the process of learning to fly in the commercial viable way? Not talking about the Ace's but an average pilot. How far will that put us into the cycle towards 2036/2038?

Not sure about average but in parts of the world it is 3000-4000 hours and then command training, at 900-1000 hours a year plus the initial induction etc. So realistically from when someone starts after training it’s 3-6 years to command. Depending on the country and airline. Welcome to the world of LCC.

[havick]

Not sure about average but in parts of the world it is 3000-4000 hours and then command training, at 900-1000 hours a year plus the initial induction etc. So realistically from when someone starts after training it’s 3-6 years to command. Depending on the country and airline. Welcome to the world of LCC.



in the USA at the regional Jet level, it’s ATP Mins to join as an FO (1500 hours) and then about a year later forced upgrade to captain after hitting 1000 hours part 121 (airline) ops.

[73qanda]

So about four years in the USA then?

[havick]

So about four years in the USA then?

yeah maybe a shave under 4 years for someone starting out today and going to one of the sausage factories and hustling flying as much as they can along the way,

[Tee Emm]

yeah maybe a shave under 4 years for someone starting out today and going to one of the sausage factories and hustling flying as much as they can along the way,https://www.pprune.org/images/statusicon/user_online.gif https://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/report.gif (https://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=10209193) Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .

[havick]

https://www.pprune.org/images/statusicon/user_online.gif https://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/report.gif (https://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=10209193)Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .

it’s cyclical. Up until 18 months ago or so it was an 11-12 year upgrade at American Eagle where I fly. Now it’s as soon as you have the 1000 hours part 121. It will probably go back to a long upgrade once this cycle finishes in about 8-10 years.

[JPJP]

https://www.pprune.org/images/statusicon/user_online.gif https://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/report.gif (https://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=10209193)Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .

Keep in mind Havick is talking about 4 years to the left seat of a RJ at a Regional airline. Not a legacy carrier. Including the degree required under most circumstances (not Havicks or most other flow through agreements) - 11 years is probably the fastest.

[havick]

Keep in mind Havick is talking about 4 years to the left seat of a RJ at a Regional airline. Not a legacy carrier. Including the degree required under most circumstances (not Havicks or most other flow through agreements) - 11 years is probably the fastest.


correct, time to a legacy there’s probably 2-3 years play each way.

[krismiler]

It's all about your position on the list and the age demographic of the Captains. If you're at the back of the hiring boom and the left seaters are mostly in their 40s then you've got a long wait ahead. LCCs are usually quicker because of turnover of pilots as they move on and expansion.

At the moment QF should be a quicker than normal (for them) upgrade as their Captains are mostly in their 50s and they're hiring again in big numbers. Someone joining now might sit for a few years twiddling their thumbs and then move up fairly rapidly.

Jetstar and Virgin Captains are mostly younger as they joined in the early 2000s got quick upgrades as the companies ramped up and are looking at another 15-20 years until they retire. Around 15 years ago Virgin Blue had less time to upgrade on the B737 than Sunstate did on the DHC8.

Air Canada and Air New Zealand were the longest at around 20 years but would probably be a bit less for someone joining today.

[Tee Emm]

As a matter of interest, for a RAAF pilot graduate with typically 210 hours, how many years from graduation and what approximate flying hours would he/she expect to have before getting a command on a C-17 Globemaster 3? How about a 737 BBJ with 34 (VIP) Squadron?

[Keg]

From talking to colleagues in Qantas who have served in the RAAF, the supervision and continuous feedback that a new RAAF graduate receives over the first few years of their career would exceed anything a newly minted CPL cadet gets by a very significant margin. It’s such a different regime as to be barely comparable. Everything from the initial selection of the RAAF student through to their eventual upgrade path is very different to that which the average CPL/ cadet goes through. The only similarity is that both involve aeroplanes.

[Gnadenburg]

From talking to colleagues in Qantas who have served in the RAAF, the supervision and continuous feedback that a new RAAF graduate receives over the first few years of their career would exceed anything a newly minted CPL cadet gets by a very significant margin. It’s such a different regime as to be barely comparable. Everything from the initial selection of the RAAF student through to their eventual upgrade path is very different to that which the average CPL/ cadet goes through. The only similarity is that both involve aeroplanes.




Yep, the old chestnut, which never helps our cause and is more often than not used to assist the race to the bottom. You can put a young adult into the cockpit of a fighter after 200 hours blah-blah. The RAAF has enviable training and supervision and quality applicants. As well as a high wash-out rate.

That said, I have seen a number of ex-mil guys struggle with the ambiguities of civilian command training. It's hard to soar with eagles whilst flying amongst turkeys for some I guess. There can be a high standard required in civilian command training with poor quality training and instructors ( I did a TC course in under a week and it was the worst training I've seen ). I'd imagine this could be a struggle for some guys despite their superb training opportunities in the military.

LCC command training can be at such a bare-bones regulatory standards that the above doesn't apply.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Forbes does the Southwest vs O'Leary model of how to work with your employees. Troubling times ahead for other Ryanair wannabe's.With 17% Of Flights Cancelled, Can Ryanair Weather Pilot Strikes? Ask Southwest.

Ryanair is facing turbulence right now with pilots unions around Europe demanding better working conditions. The optics are bad for an airline which has been on an aggressive growth path for decades.

But Ryanair’s low-cost model, borrowed from Southwest Airlines, has had decades to adapt. If the airline has shown anything over the years, is that this dynamic democratization of air travel is relatively shock-proof.

While Ryanair has put its own spin on the low-cost, low-complexity business model that Southwest perfected, it’s useful to recall that Southwest Airlines has long had strong and engaged pilots and flight attendant unions—around 83% of all Southwest staff are unionized. The U.S. low-cost leader has managed to address the needs of its employees while maintaining a lean operation.



Ryanair is not Southwest. For one thing, it is only recently that the airline’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, publicly acknowledged that it pays to be friendly. Southwest has known that all along.

Ryanair has built up some animus over decades and has only been working to soften its tone over the past four years with its Always Getting Better (https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/useful-info/about-ryanair/always-getting-better) initiatives. It takes more time than that for the friendlier image to stick. Meanwhile, as the airline is pitted against multiple unions, the animus the airline has fostered fuels some schadenfreude.

The factors at play in Europe are perhaps more complex than the union negotiations U.S. airlines face. There’s national pride behind each negotiation, maintaining the labor standards that support the quality of life that each country’s unions fight for. But Europe’s unions are not pitted against Ryanair alone. Competitors across the transport sector in Europe can face and have faced labor actions. As Ryanair’s CMO Kenny Jacob’s recently quipped (https://twitter.com/vl_bryan/status/1027159634694602757?s=12), “German consumers are used to strikes.” This was a dig at rival Lufthansa, which has had its share of labor disruptions, but there is some truth to it that applies beyond Germany.

No one likes having their holidays disrupted but, year after year, there are various transport strikes at inconvenient times—in the air and on the ground—and Europeans will still travel.

While current labor action in Germany, Sweden, Ireland and Belgium has prompted Ryanair to cancel 17% of its scheduled flights (https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1KT0Y6?__twitter_impression=true) for Friday, these disruptions are foreseeable and the airline has had time to advise customers and make adjustments to its schedule.

Ryanair has taken a firm stance that it will not sacrifice the success of its low-cost operating model, but discussions continue. The airline’s COO, Peter Bellew, noted that demands by German pilots were detailed which should help move the conversation along without requiring mediation (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ryanair-unions-germany/ryanair-strike-widens-as-german-pilots-join-friday-stoppage-idUKKBN1KT0Y6).

Ryanair, as a brand, may have nurtured a rebellious image, but it is, at heart, a conservative company. It is bold, but not foolhardy in its approach to risks. It is also transparent about turbulence ahead.

In its most recent SEC filing (https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Ryanair-FY-2018-20F.pdf), at the end of July, the airline addressed the risks of ongoing collective bargaining with pilots and crew.

“Over 95% of Ryanair pilots have already accepted an updated pay deal but there is still the potential for claims from unions to increase pay over and above what has already been agreed. There may be a push for legacy type working conditions which if acceded to could decrease the productivity of pilots, increase costs and have an adverse effect on profitability. Ryanair intends to retain its low fare high people productivity model; however, there may be periods of labor unrest as unions challenge the existing high productivity model which may have an adverse effect on customer sentiment and profitability,” the airline states.

Ryanair crew with the exception of those based in the UK operate on Irish contracts of employment. That model has been challenged in the past by individuals and may continue to be challenged by trade unions who often favor local employment contracts. If local contracts were imposed it could impact on costs, productivity and complexity of the business. Any subsequent decision to switch capacity to lower cost locations could result in redundancies and a consequent deterioration in labor relations. Following the European Court of Justice (the “ECJ”) decision in the ‘Mons’ case in September 2017, the case has been referred to the Belgian Labour Court in Mons, and with a hearing date set for November 2018 and a decision expected in early 2019. An unfavorable decision could mean the introduction of local Belgian contracts however, this decision may be appealed to the Supreme Court. Ryanair could face legal challenge from trade unions arising from unrealistic demands and expectations that do not align with the Company’s high productivity business model.

As in the case of Southwest, that high productivity business model is a significant buffer in bad times. Ryanair saw a 20% drop in profitability during Q1 of its 2019 financial year caused by lower fares and higher fuel and labor costs (https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Ryanair-Q1-FY19-Results.pdf), but that still resulted in €319m ($370m) in profits for the quarter.

“As previously guided, Q1 PAT fell by 20% to €319m due to lower fares, the absence of half of Easter in the quarter, higher oil prices and pilot costs. Traffic grew 7% to 37.6 m, despite over 2,500 flight cancellations caused by ATC staff shortages and ATC strikes. Ryanair’s lower fares delivered an industry leading 96% load factor,” Michael O’Leary said of the results.

Ryanair reported break-even load factor for 2017 and 2018 of 73%. This leaves a comfortable buffer between the number of passengers the airline needs and the number of passengers that want to fly with Ryanair.

Even with the drop in profitability, the airline maintained a 15% net margin for the quarter. Compare that to the global industry average of 4.1% that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projected for 2018 (https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-06-04-01.aspx). Compare that also to the 12.8% net margin that Southwest reported for the Second Quarter (http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/news-and-events/news-releases/2018/07-26-2018-113124751) at the end of July.

The low-cost model perfected by Southwest and Ryanair is to air travel what Ford’s industrial assembly methodology was to manufacturing. Each airline has found its own way to package it, but lean principles and the standardization of product, procedure and maintenance gives these airlines an edge that legacy competitors still cannot match.

The global pilot shortage (http://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/07/27/a-perfect-storm-pilot-shortage-threatens-global-aviation-even-private-jets/) is a factor at play, but Ryanair is also a significant employer in Europe. The airline has a marked footprint in the market (https://corporate.ryanair.com/about-us/fact-and-figures/) and no one wins if Ryanair were to vanish from the skies; not pilots and crew, and not consumers. Anyway, this scenario is unlikely.

While it might make some of Ryanair’s competitors and detractors in Europe gleeful to see the airline confront the same labor issues they have been plagued by for decades, Ryanair will be as methodical and determined in dealing with this complication as it is with everything else.

But there is a point, somewhere in the middle, between what the airline’s staff needs to be content and what the airline needs to keep flying strong. That point can be found in LUV.

I worked in aviation from 1994-2010 before turning my experience to writing about airlines and airports for leading industry and consumer publications in 2013. I’ve spent months in the hangars of airlines and aircraft manufacturers, dressed aircraft seats by hand, and worked...MORE (https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/08/09/with-17-of-flights-cancelled-can-ryanair-weather-pilot-strikes-ask-southwest/#72ebb1b36c79

[junior.VH-LFA]

As a matter of interest, for a RAAF pilot graduate with typically 210 hours, how many years from graduation and what approximate flying hours would he/she expect to have before getting a command on a C-17 Globemaster 3? How about a 737 BBJ with 34 (VIP) Squadron?

Most people are getting command 2-3 years after checking onto line. The exceptions being B350 which is 6-12 months. Probably somewhere between 750-1200 hours. Depends on the unit, what the flying rate is like, how many Instructors or SQ's are around, etc.

[Rated De]

Forbes does the Southwest vs O'Leary model of how to work with your employees. Troubling times ahead for other Ryanair wannabe's.https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/08/09/with-17-of-flights-cancelled-can-ryanair-weather-pilot-strikes-ask-southwest/#72ebb1b36c79


The modern airline management doctrine, neither recognises nor counts what is not tangible and cannot be monetised.
Consequently, their focus on unit cost fails to account for what those like Southwest that holistically embrace the reality that airlines are a dynamic team sport.

Organised labour does not need to withdraw their labour (which incidentally is incredibly hard to do) what it needs to simply do is stop enabling the model to sustain itself.

Whether it is using one's own internet to update the 'manuals', arriving early for terminal congestion (which is simply extending a TOD), using a personal cell phone to make company calls, simply stopping these things COSTS the company and suddenly becomes tangible.

What they haven't bothered counting at Ryan air as they ignored it, due perceived unlimited supply and power asymmetry over employees, will continue to be a costly exercise as the impact begins to accumulate financially.

Each business model has a shelf life. Architects of the modern aggressive and adversarial model have handsomely profited for decades.
With 17% less operation, RYR is finding that not only Operating Revenue is falling but the costs of cancelled operations and compensation will quickly outstrip any perceived gain from persevering with a business model that is time expired led by an idiot who is pass his use by date.

The big question for the industry and long suffering staff is will Ryan air change?

[73qanda]

Organised labour does not need to withdraw their labour (which incidentally is incredibly hard to do) what it needs to simply do is stop enabling the model to sustain itself.

Whether it is using one's own internet to update the 'manuals', arriving early for terminal congestion (which is simply extending a TOD), using a personal cell phone to make company calls, simply stopping these things COSTS the company and suddenly becomes tangible


If 50% of an Australian or NZ Airlines pilots did nothing but turn up to work on time and then begin updating their apps, their manuals, reading their company emails etc etc the place would grind to a halt in 24 hours.
Pilots like it when things run well, and on time. They enjoy being part of a nicely functioning system, they take pride in their role within the system. Because of that, historically, there has been no problem with all the work that gets done at home in ones own time, after all, we’re well paid and respected by our company and community. What has happened is that management is now mainly accountants and lawyers and we are no longer respected and valued for the role we play by our company ( to a large degree the community as well). In some cases we are not well paid either.
So, by treating the pilot group with little respect and by demonstrating that the job is not valued in the same way it was, we now have pilots saying “ well bugger ya then, I’ll turn up on time like my cousin who works in the ice cream factory loading boxes and do the minimum I have to”.
This is a big change in the last 20 years. I used to think it would get very messy from about 2022 onwards with accident rates increasing but now, with the shortage and the Ryanair pilots driving a stake in the ground I hold some hope that the profession of ‘Pilot’ will remain a decent profession.
We’ll see.

[CurtainTwitcher]

It's not just airlines. I think it is very important to understand the history of HOW we got to this point. There was a confluence of events in the 1970's that set the stage for the economic situation a significant number of industries finds themselves in: F I N A N C I A L I Z A T I O N. An abstract game where people and widgets are traded like goods and chattel fuelled by cheap debt.

Having gone off the gold standard on August 15 1971, the scene was set for a massive credit boom, money having been untethered from the real economy. During the decade junk bonds were created by Michael Milken, leading to massively leveraged raids or management buyouts. Now the name of the game was borrow extraordinary sums to bid up a "target" of which you were only interested in a component. Once you acquired the target, flog off the bits you don't want, hopefully repaying the debt and walk away owning the Jewel in the crown for *FREE*. Cost cutting was the only game in town, and those that had talents for putting together a deal and sacking half the employees under the weight of enormous debts ended up billionaires. These billionaires had essentially found a way to extract the long term accumulated value from these businesses and grab it for themselves leaving a burn out wreckage behind for the employees and customers.

Oliver Stone captured the period perfectly with movie Wall Street. The name of the game is to make a fast buck & get out, not build something to last. Companies took it upon themselves to do this voluntarily, rather than become a target for a buy-and-breakup raider. Ironically, he featured an airline break-up play as the central plot of the movie: Bluestar Airlines.

At the same time Reagan & Thatcher came to office, and decided to break the unions, in response to the coal strikes in the UK and the Air Traffic Controllers dispute (https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/03/opinion/reagan-vs-patco-the-strike-that-busted-unions.html) in the US. This combined with the deregulation of Airlines in the US led to wave after wave of bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions, sackings and massive cost cutting in the industry.

That is how managers learned to run the business, that is all they knew, how to shave costs and gain short term benefits and ended up making it a most unattractive business for front line employees who were always worried about having a job next week.

These forces combined have contributed to of the industry decline. Our's is not alone, many other industries suffered the same fate, it was just less visible to us except as a news report of job losses.

The Predators' Ball: The Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and the Rise of the JunkBond Raiders covers most of the important mechanics of how this financialization raiding got started & works. After reading this, go back and watch Wall Street to realise the genius of Oliver Stone (the book was published after the movie, so Stone had to independently discover how the game worked to such deep depths).

[BluSdUp]

Thanks for the support.
You elegantly analysed the present situation.
And right You are, once at work we tend to become proud , professional and competitive and play for the team we work for.

I like the Icecream story.

Here is on from Norway:
Mr IceCream of Norway , Hennig Olsen, decides that he needs better connections out of Kristiansand.
No problem, start an airline, get some Dutch chaps to fly it wet lease.
For ca 8 months there were all sorts of direct routes down to Europe.
Some 20 million euros later he cranked up the freezer and got back to what he was good at.

Anyway
Most of us are damd good at what we do: Making sure the perishable product we purvey, dont melt!
Mind u it is getting close to melting point!

Never a dull moment! In Aviation of-course.
Regards
Cpt B

[BluSdUp]

CT
Now we are getting closer.
Our Industry is actually rather tame , compared to others.
Generally due to a minimum of regulation required due to the obvious catastrophic result without it.

The Money People has taken over the world, and the consequences are in the long term absolutely catastrophic!!
I feel massive shame off how we are handing the world over to our grand children.
Our children are confused.

I was a teenager when Thatcher and Reagan changed the world and beat Soviet.
I was focused on the success of us winning the cold war. I missed the fact that the good old Union Chap Ronald Reagan made a deal with the Devil to get to the top.
He let the Money People run the show.

Not a communist quite yet, but something has to change and soon.
Still voting conservative here in Norway, for other reasons.
Anyway.
80 year old kpt Ø just flew over in his Cessna.
He has enjoyed the best of times.

Off to check the lobster,,,, Eh,, Crab Pots.
( Lobster season is in a month, me thinks)

Regards
Cpt B

[Kranz]

If you're after a great movie that depicts the greed of the financial services industry over the last 50 years then I recommend "The Big Short". I would suggest that the same practices have been employed in the aviation industry both from an investment and management perspective as highlighted by 73' and Curtain, above.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

Beautifully condensed and written CT.

My mates think I’m mad but I can sense the pendulum swinging. We do live in bubbles of our own industry but the entire economic system hinges on the workforce being meek and mild, and thinking about retaining their jobs. For decades we accepted that we were powerless against multi million/billion dollar corporations. Simple workplace minimalism from your staff can bring you to your knees and I feel we are at a turning point where, simultaneously but independently, we are all united in returning some of the pain to these corporations.......secretly they know this.

[Rated De]

Beautifully condensed and written CT.

My mates think I’m mad but I can sense the pendulum swinging. We do live in bubbles of our own industry but the entire economic system hinges on the workforce being meek and mild, and thinking about retaining their jobs. For decades we accepted that we were powerless against multi million/billion dollar corporations. Simple workplace minimalism from your staff can bring you to your knees and I feel we are at a turning point where, simultaneously but independently, we are all united in returning some of the pain to these corporations.......secretly they know this.



It is even more fundamental.
There are two periods in recent history where income distribution is flat: World Wars.
In the intervening periods, asymmetry develops and unions are captured by the same lobby dollars. Ever wonder why nothing changes whether red team or blue team are the 'government'?
Declining real wages and concentration of income in small segments of economies and industries creates a break down of an implied social contract: No longer does hard work, prudence and other virtues matter. If to quote Gordon Gekko, " If you aren't inside, you are outside". Sadly there are less inside, than out.

As the asymmetry between the haves and have not rises, debt is the result: People borrow to keep up. This has limits.
Idiots like Australian treasurer Morrison lament wages growth, but the lobyyists donate good money to ensure high immigration keeps downwards pressure on wages. Fearing wage growth is precisely why airlines are allowed to obtain foreigners to do Australian jobs. The 'Labor' party is as silent as the LNP.

Eventually we return to what Henry Ford detailed in his 1926 book "Today and Tomorrow"

“The owner, the employees, and the buying public are all one and the same, and unless an industry can so manage itself as to keep wages high and prices low it destroys itself, for otherwise it limits the number of its customers. One’s own employees ought to be one’s own best customers.”

Businesses end up eating their own tail.

[stormfury]

I don’t understand why they need to advertise, all the additional non-flying tasks for the princely sum of $77k incl super.

Pilot Job - First Officer - Challenger 601 3A-ER (http://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/pilot-job/3249/First%20Officer%20-%20Challenger%20601%203A-ER)

I think there are quite a few out there, particularly in Oz, that still believe in ‘shaking the ol’ pilot tree’ for a limitless supply.

This advert reminds me of a post from another forum (hence no link)

Quote:
Originally Posted by billsaw
Yea some 1970's Lear Jets will get retired finally and many of those guys who were just "keeping up with the Jones" will disappear. And good riddance. They need to be on the airlines anyway. Most of them never had full operating crews anyway and are the operations that have one guy whose job ad reads like this

Pilot wanted: Lear 35 or Hawker 700 or Falcon 10 or whatever old tub you can think of
Must be typed and current. Must have 5,000TT, 2,000 in type, 1,000PIC in type. Must have a masters degree and been a fighter pilot. Being a Blue Angel is a plus.

Looking for a good guy who can manage our operation out of KXXX airport. We are a great company to work for. Responsibilities include hiring contract FO's to fly with you. Flying the airplane, booking hotels for flight crew and owner and transportation coordinator. Sweeping and maintaining the hanger. Washing and polishing the brightwork on the plane, and the owners cars if you don't fly that week. Oh yea and his pool boy just quit so maintaining owners pool at his house. You may be needed in the office to do some mundane choirs. You will also be responsible for managing the maintenance on the aircraft and the lawnmowers. Oops I almost forgot, cutting the grass at the hangar and landscaping at the owners house (poolboy was the also the landscaper). We will need you to be at the office every morning at 0700 with donuts and to drop off the bosses dry cleaning when not on the road. When on the road we will need you to leave you hotel ($50 a day is our budget for yours) to go to the bosses Four Seasons by 0630 as you are also the chauffeur while on the road. Being a good cook is a plus.

Pay starts at 50k (tops out at 52k)
Per diem is $14 a day
no health
no dental
no 401k
vacation 2 weeks annually but must be used retroactively on Sundays when you were already at home previously.

So yea those guys/\/\/\/\/\ will go away and good. Who wants to do that kind of crap.

But I challenge you with this.

When fuel prices were through the roof did rich guys stop flying their private aircraft? Nope. Maybe the guys above did but not the rich guys and companies. And they won't either when pilot cost goes up.

[josephfeatherweight]

I don’t understand why they need to advertise, all the additional non-flying tasks for the princely sum of $77k incl super.

Pilot Job - First Officer - Challenger 601 3A-ER (http://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/pilot-job/3249/First%20Officer%20-%20Challenger%20601%203A-ER)

I think there are quite a few out there, particularly in Oz, that still believe in ‘shaking the ol’ pilot tree’ for a limitless supply.

This advert reminds me of a post from another forum (hence no link)

I agree - this $hit stinks - unfortunately, someone will bite, though...

[Ghost_Rider737]

Look on the bright side , 77k flying a challenger beats the 73k Qantaslink are offering Dash 8 FOs.....

[DirectAnywhere]

Seriously, if "the family" can afford a Challenger, they can afford a decent salary*. Which "family" is it anyway? The fecking Corleones?

*Such are the ways such people get richer, however.

[KRUSTY 34]

Look on the bright side , 77k flying a challenger beats the 73k Qantaslink are offering Dash 8 FOs.....
Statements like that are certainly part of the problem!

[KRUSTY 34]

Seriously, if "the family" can afford a Challenger, they can afford a decent salary*. Which "family" is it anyway? The fecking Corleones?

*Such are the ways such people get richer, however.
Good to see they are willing to put their lives and those of their family in the hands of the lowest bidder!

[Angle of Attack]

The challenger job is for 100-200 stick hours a year though which is less than part time. But the challenge is someone who would take this considering they could get 2-300k overseas with the same qualifications.

[Icarus2001]

The challenger job is for 100-200 stick hours a year though which is less than part time. But the challenge is someone who would take this considering they could get 2-300k overseas with the same qualifications.

Really?

The quoted salary is for FO.

So where do they pay Challenger FOs $200-300K?

[maggot]

Really?

The quoted salary is for FO.

So where do they pay Challenger FOs $200-300K?
Tis but a TR and a few bowls of noodles away

[stormfury]

Tis but a TR and a few bowls of noodles away

:ok:

PS it’s certainly not Oz

[ramble on]

Most any Challenger job in Australia wont just be turn up with your nav bag and fly then go home. If its like most it may well involve lots of other leveraged tasks that many are willing to do to join the race to the bottom in order to get a foot in the door....a month or three away from family, manage the hangar, do ops, office duty, clean the aircraft/hangar/bosses car....

[mikk_13]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8hCIolZRTU

Doesn't look good for the future of the industry

[Popgun]

That video should be re-titled "Why I Quit Commuting".

He worked for a Regional Airline...PSA, I think. There's no doubt that a job with one of the US commuter carriers has more than enough challenges to leading a balanced life. However, adding a stressful and expensive (hotels) commute is very counterproductive. Living a short driving/train distance from your base airport is the way to negate many of the stressors he mentions.

PG

[flying-spike]

That video should be re-titled "Why I Quit Commuting".

He worked for a Regional Airline...PSA, I think. There's no doubt that a job with one of the US commuter carriers has more than enough challenges to leading a balanced life. However, adding a stressful and expensive (hotels) commute is very counterproductive. Living a short driving/train distance from your base airport is the way to negate many of the stressors he mentions.

PG
Like you say, short commute (on the ground) to the airport. Shove a couple of sandwiches and a bit of fruit into the nav bag. It isn’t rocket surgery!

[mikk_13]

on 38bucks an hour (blocktime) after flying for 7 years?



Like you say, short commute (on the ground) to the airport. Shove a couple of sandwiches and a bit of fruit into the nav bag. It isn’t rocket surgery!

[flying-spike]

There are extra bucks in extra hours. If you make yourself less available by living further from the work well that is your choice. Yes the money could be better but as pilot supply shrinks we live in hope.

[bafanguy]

That video should be re-titled "Why I Quit Commuting".

Correct...commuting to a regional job is a very tough way to do it. I hope his new plans work out for him. He could undoubtedly go back to the regional world in the future. He's a very young guy.

[Rated De]

There are extra bucks in extra hours. If you make yourself less available by living further from the work well that is your choice.

Perhaps the reality more pertinent is that the salary on offer means that living a reasonable distance from base is simply not financially possible.
Indeed the NTSB report referred to fatigue and the effect of commuting, which itself may be a result of the 'salary' on offer rather than a simple choice.
The UK CAA is currently conducting a review of commuting and sources suggest that there is more to the reasons a pilot 'commutes' a distance by road or air other than personal choice: cost of accommodation and the salary on offer being two.


As Qantas link are finding in Sydney, a median wage package does not attract sufficient applicants, thus the 'need' for skilled shortage visas, rather than providing a livable salary in a very expensive city.

[Duck Pilot]

Basing flight crew out of any network port certainly would attract more pilots and cabin crew to the regionals and majors.

Only other solution is to pay salaries compatible to the bases.

The problem is never going to be resolved under the current regime.

Then they gas bag about fatigue and commuting, obviously no lessons were gained as a result of the Buffolo Q400 accident. Very dissapointing to say the least.

457 visas?? How are they expected to survive if us aussies can't, or are they on some sweetheart deal?

[Berealgetreal]

Interesting that the title of the thread is "Pilot Shortage" yet the minute a young commuting pilot walks away people come out of the woodwork to point the finger at him. I say the conditions aren't up to scratch, so an intelligent young man instead of bleating for 20 years in the cockpit is simply handing his stuff back and going back to GA. I'm actually seeing this on our side of the world at the moment. People in senior positions demoting themselves or young smart guys leaving the career. If you have level headed good operators demoting themselves, taking a massive paycut or looking to leave the industry I think you might have a problem. (Canary coal mine).

I'm not a commuter but have commuted for short periods so understand his perspective. The attitude of some non commuters toward commuters, particularly some of the managers is poor to say the least. A friend of mine commuted as his dad had a serious illness another because his child needed specialist support in a particular city. You never know why you might have to commute you know. And those that do it for career, I say good on them, good luck and hope to see you in the jumpseat sometime soon.

None of the items listed by the young man were deal breakers but the accumulation of them made it in the end not worth it. Please now blast me, I enjoy it,

[Keg]

Blast you? Post of the month! Short listed for ‘post of the year’.

[Gnadenburg]

I don't blame him for walking away but there is no semblance of an airline position in his job description. It's GA like. Actually, its first job GA like.

Awaking at 3am for a commute and flying beyond midnight on a multi-sector day is a safety issue, requiring intervention and deterrence. Whatever your views are on commuting, its often thrown back in the face of pilot organizsations pressing fatigue issues and rostering. This pilot's commuting seems extreme. Far more sensible commuting scenarios are used as evidence, by management, of pilot roster stamina. Commuting is a proven double edged sword.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Recent advances in the "Low Cost Ethos" business model permeate virtually every aspect of the industry. As an example, one operator now has virtually mandated commuting or alternately moving cities in order to gain promotion or even change aircraft type within rank. The irony is, it's training costs are out of control BECAUSE everyone is required to attend one of the two original main bases to actually do the training. All because they tried to and save hotel costs for overnights. A clusterf#ck of epic proportions. The law of unintended consequences punishes both the operator and crew, a negative sum game.

This operator has, in effect seven bases for 80 domestic aircraft. It also interleaves two other non interchangable types into the "Group" domestic operation, and looks like introducing a third! No economies of scale, no cross crewing, and highly inefficient unable to utilise pilots annual stick hour quota's in these peripheral operations.

It has made the same error for it's international fleet with a huge number of permutations for promotion and bases upgrade paths . As a consequence, there is going to be a revolving door of training expenses will only continue, and people will be commuting some place they don't want to be.

The record personally relayed to me is 5 bases in about 7 years, and a lot of unhappiness.