Pilot shortage [Archive] - Page 2

Rated De

8th Oct 2017, 01:27

The task for Australian pilots is to recognise that this is a structural (somewhat self fulfilling) shortage.

As Curtain Twitcher kindly posted, the Achilles heel of the model is the 'unlimited supply'.

Every adversarial structure erected by the corporate sphere (in aviation's case) the Ian Oldmeadow (Qantas) model borrows heavily on this. Jetstar ringfenced Qantas mainline and as Peter Gregg (former CFO) testified in a parliamentary joint hearing that JQ will add 'competitive wage tension' Perhaps the 2011 grounding of Qantas reinforces the 1989 meme, but against falling supply, even O'Leary is on bended knee. Eventually in a market with global supply, Australia will catch up.

Having read the Qantas thread on recruitment, I am positive the HR capture has occurred.

The shortage throughout GA is likely to infect firstly the regional airlines, my hunch is that Qlink, Rex and Cobham will struggle to find recruits. As Horizon Airlines (a Q400) operator subsidiary of Alaskan Airlines found in their summer 2017..

But American companies don't have a shortage of people. They have a shortage of wages, benefits, and training. Companies could fix that problem, but they haven't.
Take Horizon Air, a regional airline that services the Pacific Northwest, which the Seattle Times reports (http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/horizon-air-cutting-hundreds-of-flights-this-summer-due-to-pilot-shortage/?utm_content=buffer514f5&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer) is "cutting its flight schedule this summer because of a severe shortage of pilots for its Q400 turboprop planes.

Whilst there will always be pilots too scared to read up on what has occurred elsewhere and will comfort themselves with the mantra Straya is different, it is not.

Ask a flying school how many commercial students are trained now versus 15 years ago?
Ask a GA charter operator how many applicants hang around a season or two in the Kimberly or Darwin, sweeping hangers and washing planes
Ask CASA how many Commercial licences are granted in Australia year on year. Compare FY17 to FY00.

The shortage is not a cyclical one, it has been building since the baby boomers were born. It has big ramifications for asset prices and indeed labour unit cost. Given the barriers to entry an aviation career presents due time ,commitment and expense is it any wonder that the negative feedback loop of constant downward pressure on terms and conditions, poor work life balance sees a lack of supply?

O'Leary enjoyed the narrative, Qantas' Joyce and Clifford are well known to detest their pilots too. Like O'Leary they enjoy the snide remarks, but the reality is that pilots are a valuable component of a dynamic people business.

De commissioning an adversarial model is like removing asbestos; something that takes patience, commitment and time. Ryanair will face huge resistence if they attempt to do so. Their pilots are well aware of it.

Australian airlines have time to change but will not do a thing until schedule pressure requires them to act. Do not think for a moment they will ever telegraph that the schedules are a problem. I would watch the QLink schedule for the Southern Summer :E

framer

8th Oct 2017, 03:14

Ask CASA how many Commercial licences are granted in Australia year on year. Compare FY17 to FY00.
I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?
Cheers

framer

8th Oct 2017, 03:19

I found this in a news article relating to New Zealand numbers
Figures from the Civil Aviation Authority showed the number of commercial and air transport pilots it approved between 2009 and 2016 had fallen from 709 to 386.
Halving the number of licenses issued while the number of airline sectors being flown increases at about 8% per annum and the retiring pilot numbers increase has got to bite at some stage I guess.

Duck Pilot

8th Oct 2017, 04:01

Compare the annual statistics for Flight Crew Licences in CASA's annual reports, CASA website probably has the past reports published for those interested.

Whatever the figures state with regards to CPL and ATPL issues, be aware that some of the initial licence issues would have been foreign students.

PoppaJo

8th Oct 2017, 04:13

mikewil

8th Oct 2017, 06:54

My local Aeroclub produced 1 CPL last year and 3 PPLs. The figure when I joined it in 2007 was 10 and 20. They made 2 instructors redundant and sold a couple of aircraft last year to avoid going bankrupt.

Would I be correct in saying it will be easier getting jobs as a CPL going forward as next to nobody is learning to fly?

Nope, just most students are choosing the sausage factory flying schools with shiny G1000 equipped DA40s who are charged $100K for their training (deferred with fee help) rather than the solid grounding you get from a flying school/aero club with C172s & C182s that will cost you only $60K that you need to pay as you go.

Sad state of affairs....

DeltaT

8th Oct 2017, 07:26

framer

8th Oct 2017, 07:38

Do you think they would get just as good a result if they didn't have a sim ride ?
I've seen quite a few candidates that have the HR people fizzing with their brilliance who are obviously unsuitable when put in a sim.

eukeybound

8th Oct 2017, 08:29

Rated De

8th Oct 2017, 08:57

If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience. The shortage will fundamentally change the recruitment process and indeed alter power balances in airlines. Administration ought be secondary, operational areas of airlines(due to their ability to affect revenue) have been strongly contained by substantial investments in Industrial Relations and Human Resources.These apparatus will not change until they have to.

If one sits and listens to O'Leary, regarding his 'scheduling problems' you saw his tone largely belligerent, mocking, dismissive and confrontational. That time has now passed. The challenge for Ryanair is to unwind all the investment in a model that required ASSUMED unlimited supply.

He now is on bended knee to the pilots. As Gandhi said;

'First they ignore you,then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win'
Gandhi

Much downward pressure has been exerted on terms and conditions. HR grew very powerful and I would assume at Qantas HR drive nearly every decision, email and recruitment process as it struggles for relevance.

This shortage is not cyclical, it is structural. The demographic problem is yet to be addressed fully. Labour associations ought be all over it, but if history rhymes, the union movement is always a dollar short and a day late. Ever wondered why?

The U.S. will face a staggering shortage of pilots - Jul. 27, 2017 (http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/27/news/companies/pilot-shortage-figures/)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/97016568/pilot-shortage-600000-new-pilots-needed-over-the-next-20-years

The U.S. Is Facing a Disastrous Pilot Shortage (http://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/news/a27535/us-pilot-shortage/)

With regard to Framer's comment:

I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?Do you believe that it would be information that airlines would prefer you do not know? My suspicion is just like the data that mysteriously is excluded from certain company annual reports, they would prefer not to telegraph problems, much like schedule cancellations, they will never publish transparent cancellation aggregates due 'crew shortage'. Nor is it in their interest to tell you how light the number of active ATPL licences are and how few licences are actually issued.

No Idea Either

8th Oct 2017, 09:29

If you really want that info, an FOI request to CASA should deliver last years figures at least, but it will cost ya.....

De_flieger

8th Oct 2017, 10:27

It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/files/net351/f/_assets/main/lib100173/ar1112_p6.pdfhas a table going back a few years, so heres a couple.

From the 2011-2012 report:
In 2007-2008 there were 521 ATPLs issued, and 6564 current. In the same period there were 1352 CPLs issued and 4103 current.
In 2011-2012 there were 472 ATPLs issued, and 6521 current, along with 1052 CPLs issued and 3988 current.

The latest (2015-2016) report here: https://www.casa.gov.au/book-page/appendix-operating-statisticsshowed that for 2015-2016 there were 162 ATPLs issued, and 7375 current, and 1048 CPLs issued with 4616 current. Unfortunately the table from the most recent annual report also has a column for 2011-2012 showing 504 ATPLs issued and 7321 current, which is 800 different from the 2011/2012 figures given in the earlier report, so either one or the other or both is completely wrong and noone knows how many ATPL holders are active or issued in any given year. I also dont know how they classify licenceholders as current or not, and a pilot with an ATPL may have moved to a job where they only exercise the privileges of a CPL, or overseas.

pilotchute

8th Oct 2017, 11:37

Australian operators make their own shortages. One poster commented that they wouldn't want a person in the RHS who couldn't pass a sim check. What about all the people who don't get a sim check because they don't have "500 multi under the IFR" or "MCC completed". Do you really need 500 multi command to sit RHS in a metro, dash 8 or Brasilia? Airlines are narrowing the the applicants to a trickle then complaining there are aren't any suitable candidates!

mikewil

8th Oct 2017, 11:52

Australian operators make their own shortages. One poster commented that they wouldn't want a person in the RHS who couldn't pass a sim check. What about all the people who don't get a sim check because they don't have "500 multi under the IFR"? Or "MCC competed".

Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...

I've heard countless stories like this and those ones did have 500 multi IFR!

maggot

8th Oct 2017, 21:08

No Idea Either

8th Oct 2017, 23:49

De Flieger

Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.

Rated De

8th Oct 2017, 23:50

Or what about the number who don't get the opportunity for the sim check because the HR girl (who's never set foot in a cockpit) didn't like their face or their "tell me about a time when" story wasn't embellished enough...
Perhaps forward thinking airlines will try to wrestle control away from a liberal arts degree holding HR 'manager'??

Perhaps also the minimum hours required will be liberalised. I would be looking for these signals of supply shortage.

Great job De-flieger

It's not the easiest to find but it isnt completely hidden away either. In the CASA publications, under annual reports, appendices. The 2011-2012 report, here: https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/file.../ar1112_p6.pdf (https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/g/files/net351/f/_assets/main/lib100173/ar1112_p6.pdf)has a table going back a few years, so heres(sic) a couple. The question pilots should ask themselves is;

Are these new licences issued to Australian students?
Are the licence privileges being exercised in Australia?

Sorry No idea, missed your post, we are thinking the same thing...

Of those figures, can you determine how many actually stay in oz. I imagine a lot of CPL/ATPL issues would be for overseas students who go back to their sponsor airline. It's a fundamental issue to our current plight. Perhaps the AFAP or similar could make these FOI enquiries to set the record straight.

Labour organisations are not well credentialed when it comes to research, my faith in them is marginal, perhaps a question if asked would get them moving in the right direction.

:E

ElZilcho

9th Oct 2017, 03:00

The question pilots should ask themselves is;

Are these new licences issued to Australian students?
Are the licence privileges being exercised in Australia?

Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China. I'm sure it's the same on both sides of the ditch.

Rated De

9th Oct 2017, 04:10

Over in NZ, the answer to both is a resounding No! In most circumstances anyway. Several Schools here market themselves almost entirely to international students, mostly from India or China.:ok:

You would be suprised how low the number of Australian citizen CPL issues actually is.

It is the same in the USA and Europe.
Ever wonder why some airlines are guaranteeing loans and paying for training again, from ab-initio to airline?

https://www.pilotcareernews.com/british-airways-announces-fourth-phase-of-future-pilot-programme/

JQ and other bottom feeder airlines who model themselves on Ryanair are by definition in big trouble. Whether paying for endorsements or simulators and uniforms, these cost will instead be something the employer is responsible for again; simply called cost of business.

Those old enough may remember 'On the Beach' which had Australia as the last place unaffected by the nuclear war, but eventually (spoiler alert) the radiation got to Australia. Apologies to Nevil Shute!

This shortage is real, not cyclical and despite Boeing and Airbus marketing pilot costs won't be solved by pilot-less aircraft anytime soon. Whilst it is clear heavily adversarial airlines will not embrace this paradigm shift as a welcome change, it may well be something that is forced upon them.

Sadly for O'Leary et al, unlimited supply is no longer assured.

Dark Knight

9th Oct 2017, 05:04

Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat

Define `sub-par'?

Aircraft on Ground do not earn revenue.

I would not be prepared to put money on this. Already many airlines are putting pilots with a bare 250 hours into the RHS - have flown with a few.

And, indeed recall a certain pilot (self) with a bare 265 hours went straight into the RHS.

SHVC

9th Oct 2017, 05:25

is there really a shortage of pilots in OZ? From what I hear QF,JQ and VA have a pretty healthy hold pool.

bazza stub

9th Oct 2017, 05:43

is there really a shortage of pilots in OZ? From what I hear QF,JQ and VA have a pretty healthy hold pool.

Did they tell you that?

blow.n.gasket

9th Oct 2017, 05:46

What if that " healthy hold pool " of QF , JQ , & VA are the same applicants applying to whoever will offer them a job first ?
Becomes a fairly shallow pool , quite quickly , if all the incumbents recruit heavily, from the same font ,
at the same time !

galdian

9th Oct 2017, 05:48

neville_nobody

9th Oct 2017, 05:53

Well there certainly is no pilot shortage in Australia if threads like this still exist:

http://www.pprune.org/pacific-general-aviation-questions/600477-ga-joke-just-people.html

ElZilcho

9th Oct 2017, 06:20

Why any talk about what's available for the RHS??

Whilst desirable to have a certain standard you CAN - push comes to shove - have the literal "trained monkey" and ops can go on.

LHS is where the legal buck stops so THAT's where the question arises...how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??

Always amuses me when people talk about the "pilot shortage", the real talk has to be about the "command shortage" because THAT's when the potential to ground aircraft becomes real.

In the perfect world all crew would be trained to the highest standards (initial and recurrent) but that costs $$$$ so lets at least talk in context of the commercial reality as espoused by the dark forces of commercial reality! :eek:

Sadly not the way it should be - but the way it is.

Cheers. :ok:

This makes me ponder the future of Legacy carriers.

While those of us at Air NZ/QF count the decades to the RHS of a Widebody and ponder if we'll ever see the LHS before retirement, there's a whole world of 250 hour cadets getting their commands in a few short years.

Of course, a quick glance at Airlines where this occurs (RyanAir) paints a very bleak picture as to why, but we all have our price. I believe J*, JetConnect and Virgin (NZ) are already losing Captains, some long serving, to the huge offerings in China.

In the years to come, I expect we'll see more and more commuting contracts on offer for experienced operators to the point that even QF/ANZ will lose their appeal.

framer

9th Oct 2017, 06:50

how low can you go with the matrix of components (hours/experience, training, CRM exposure, multi crew ops etc etc) for the PIC in the LHS....accompanied by their trained monkey??
Nailed it.
In the years to come, I expect we'll see more and more commuting contrac
I think in the years to come we will see companies having to offer a variety of roster options to their Captains just like the Chinese are doing. The Chinese aren't offering nine different roster options to new hires because they care about the new hires quality of life, they are doing it because they need Captains and so have found out what people want and are offering it to them. As it stands in NZ and Aus at the moment you don't have much choice as to how much you work and when. Some folk want to work hard for two weeks then have two weeks off, others want to go at full tilt to build hours, experience and bank account, some would prefer month on month off, some love nights and some prefer earlies, yet little of this is addressed because it doesn't have to be. In five years time I imagine that rather than paying massive increases in salary the smart Australasian Airlines will give Captains some power to choose how their life is structured by offering choice.

Rated De

9th Oct 2017, 07:14

In five years time I imagine that rather than paying massive increases in salary the smart Australasian Airlines will give Captains some power to choose how their life is structured by offering choice.

Yes framer, this is the genesis of the problem; Airlines need to change.
They need to change recruitment practice but most importantly the model that has dominated industrial relations management at most airlines is finished.

Some airlines will offer different paths, some more money.
Simply put, the floor has been found and the company dominance and ebbing away of terms and conditions is finished.

Fair recompense for skill set, time and money is all that was missing. Unlimited supply of pilots cemented an adversarial model. Ryanair at the Apex, Air Asia and even JQ were pushing more and more of the employment cost at the employee as supply outpaced demand. Simulators, uniforms, interviews and even income protection insurance borne by the employee. Airline management loved it!

Demographically, that time is over. They will be dragged into the new paradigm, eventually realising that treating people with respect, consideration and as people rather than labour unit costs is the way forward,

Gordon Bethune showed them at Continental, after that low life era, Rob Fyfe led the way at Air New Zealand and for 50 years Southwest Airlines does it day in, day out; it is after all a people business.

Don't expect the well established parasitic practice known as HR/IR to release its grip without a fight,they will eventually be kept away from the day to day, even performance management of long established employees won't need their self interested escalation (and presence) to be sorted.

:ok:

IsDon

9th Oct 2017, 07:39

Don't expect the well established parasitic practice known as HR/IR to release its grip without a fight,they will eventually be kept away from the day to day, even performance management of long established employees won't need their self interested escalation (and presence) to be sorted.

:ok:

Oh I hope you’re right. Unfortunately it seems every day HR find their way into more and more areas of our working lives. Who knew they could design uniforms? What a clusterfu<k that was.

They’ve been trying to bring in annual performance reviews for pilots in my outfit for years. They hate they have no say in who gets a shot at command training and they desperately want to control that process. To date they’ve been prevented from getting their sticky little fingers into it. Hopefully that continues.

DeltaT

9th Oct 2017, 08:01

Because regardless of the shortage, most airlines will ground planes rather than put sub-par pilots in the RH seat. The standard of Australian pilots is generally regarded as very high, because we set a high standard. Lowering the standard is a slippery slope.

Just a wee reminder that those old Pilot Captains out there coming up on retirement had next to no recruitment process back in the day.

CurtainTwitcher

9th Oct 2017, 08:14

https://i.imgur.com/yXty2Bc.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/ZKF3N2a.jpg

Labelled number is Net Change in current ATPL.

Issued is New ATPL issued with valid medical.
Net change is difference from previous year.
Attrition is Change from previous year LESS new Issues.

Source data available on Pastebin https://pastebin.com/b99pizhr in CSV to cut and paste & roll your own charts with the following format:

Unicode (UTF-16)
Field delimiter ,
Text delimiter "

Left 270

9th Oct 2017, 14:05

I actually couldn’t agree with O’Leary more, there will never be a shortage of people wanting to work 18hrs a week for 150k, and should I ever get the opportunity I’ll be straight on to it. In the meantime I guess I’ll just have to stick to flying to make a living...

pilotchute

9th Oct 2017, 15:53

smiling monkey

9th Oct 2017, 16:52

I have been unfortunate enough to have to listen to a "HR manager" tell me that with aptitude testing and behavioural questioning there is no need for the interviewer to have industry experience in the field being interviewed for.

Yes, that is unfortunate. How then can the interviewer know whether the 'tell me about a time' story is genuine or made up? :rolleyes:

coaldemon

9th Oct 2017, 19:11

Isn't this the place to come to listen to "tell me about a time" stories ?

pilotchute

9th Oct 2017, 20:04

Just read on the Qlink thread that they can afford to defer someone because the final say is with "Upper Management" as to wether they get put on the hold file. You can pass all the assessments but still get a no. That would tell me there is no "pilot shortage" just yet.

rammel

9th Oct 2017, 21:27

In regards to the issued ATPL's, anecdotally I would say very little are issued to Australians each year. This is because at one of the large schools at Moorabbin they have 150 or so students each year of which 70-80% are from overseas and most likely heading to a job overseas. Assuming there are 4-5 other large schools where the same happens, then there are probably lucky to be 150 local pilots who are issued with an ATPL each year. This is all anecdotal and I stand to be corrected, but I don't think I'm too far off the money.

What they really mean by pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots willing to accept crap pay and conditions. That's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain. I'm not a pilot, but if I was I don't know which Australian company I'd aspire to work for, as all have the same HR bullsh!t and treat you as a number and not a skilled employee. If I had a choice, I'd go for QF purely for the money.

Rated De

9th Oct 2017, 23:14

hat's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain.You are spot on it is going to happen first in GA as pilots recognise they can move to better terms and conditions.

Qantas pilots lost a whole decade where their careers were at best non-existent and at worst declining with all resources quarantined with the JQ experiment, which is IR strategy designed to undermine mainline terms and conditions.

As I mentioned previously, Horizon Air in the US, an Alaskan subsidiary cancelled a large volume of flights due lack of crew. It would seem being on welfare and flying full time is no longer a preferred career path.

Watch to see how Rex and QLink go with their schedules...Of course it will be hidden, but if Europe is the guide (it is demographically driven after all) cancellations will increase until the slow moving corporate removes the obstacles and begins recognising the paradigm has changed.

Lookleft

9th Oct 2017, 23:28

If you think that JQ was purely set up as an IR strategy then you don't know your recent history. JQ was set up as the low cost counter to Virgin way back in '04. The pilots that started with JQ were already on reduced terms and conditions as Impulse had been bought by QF to counter Virgin. The business plan had already been done with an airline flying 23 A320's on a lower cost base and AJ was a big part of this. So Impulse became Jetstar and the rest is history. Lower terms and conditions than mainline were a by-product not the driving force. Also the MoU has given many QF pilots the opportunity to get into the LHS that they otherwise would not have had without JQ. In addition many S/O's got a RHS that they would have had to wait a long time for.

DynamicStall

10th Oct 2017, 03:21

Rated De

10th Oct 2017, 04:00

A little disingenuous.

Purely IR? i didn't state that, I said which is IR strategy designed to undermine mainline terms and conditions.Whilst it may be public narrative that JQ was to be '23 aircraft' and Qantas pilots were reassured by Geoff Dixon circa 2003, that it was to pincer Virgin I ask simply:

how many aircraft is JQ operating now?
How many ASK do JQ fly?

I think you will find that;

As Dixon telegraphed to you in 2005;

'The move comes just days after Qantas said Jetstar would some day be "just as important as the main line" airline.'

'By next year Qantas's low-cost offshoot, Jetstar, plans to fly to Asia, and possibly Europe and North America.'

I am well aware of Mr Joyce's role, Gerry McGowan's offer to Qantas. The opportunities to which you refer would have been those ordinarily afforded to Qantas pilots prior to JQ's creation. As former CFO Gregg also telegraphed to you, in your joint Parliamentary hearing that JQ added 'competitive wage tension' across the group.

Mr Dixon telegraphed the developing or indeed changing strategy a little more stating;

'fuel and people now represented around 60per cent of the Group’s operating costs.“Many airlines are now achieving substantial cost improvements through Chapter 11bankruptcy protection, consolidation and mergers and government support – avenues not available to Qantas.'

Maybe you are correct and all of it is simply coincidence, the historical record may suggest that there was more to JQ than they were prepared to tell you in 2003.

How long Qantas can maintain downward pressure on terms and conditions (unit cost) is the question.

gordonfvckingramsay

10th Oct 2017, 04:42

The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it. In their attempt to convince the industry and the traveling public that this is essentially an unskilled pastime that requires no experience, they’ve gutted the general aviation industry that fed them pilots for decades. Why would you start at the bottom when you can go straight in at the top?

Rated De

10th Oct 2017, 04:53

The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it

That is why watching the adversarial model of IR disintegrate at Ryanair is so funny.

They convinced everyone (including new pilots) there are better pastimes. Given the time, expense and acumen required is not in unlimited supply the gaping hole in their model was evident but needed the first waves of demographic retirements to focus attention on their own downfall.

:E

Duck Pilot

10th Oct 2017, 09:08

Many segments of GA are being hit extremely hard at the moment, namely the niche operators such as the SAR, air ambulance and other special mission providers whom struggle to recruit pilots who meet stringent government or client contractual requirements.

Only thing that will fix this is MONEY and lots of it! Firstly to attract and then retain suitably experienced pilots. Government and corporate clients will need to put a higher dollar value on their contracts if they want their aircraft to fly.

KRUSTY 34

10th Oct 2017, 10:57

Nearly a decade ago the Chairman of a well known Australian Regional airline stated, “I would rather cut off my right arm than pay my pilots more.”

The result of that infamous statement and intractable mindset was the wholesale decimation of the schedule. In the end it was the GFC and the overnight stoppage of expansion at the Majors that saved their arse. Otherwise the drain would have been terminal.

Get ready for round Two!

Keg

10th Oct 2017, 12:24

I recall on the QF recruitment thread that a number of people who were given rejection emails in March were subsequently invited in for an assessment centre. I wonder if the reasons for those subsequent invitations is related to the subject matter.

Of course, with an impending pilot shortage in Australia, training going flat out at Qantas, new 737 sim on the way, etc, surely an exonerated mic downturn is just months away? :eek::eek:

Rated De

11th Oct 2017, 08:19

The business cycle is to what you allude. Convention is the business cycle is around seven years between peaks. We are currently due excessive money printing (Quantitative easing) about eleven years into the cycle and well overdue for a correction..

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Business_cycle.jpg

When is the big question

It is this cycle the IR practitioners (a dark art if ever there was one) use to time their delay to negotiation in order to simultaneously threaten to take away any nominal salary(payment for delay) and drive through concessions. Australian authors have done a lot of work in this field for those inclined to do some research

Organised labour is not really ahead of the cycle, rather they react to implied threats, with the possible exception of ALPA in the USA who with Chapter 11 provisions have some forewarning what is upon them. Much research has been done into the topic and it is well known in corporate circles have to control 'negotiation' with cancelled meetings the norm.

This time however the underlying forces (business cycle) correction may be sufficient to delay the shortage, but it will not be curtailed by a cyclical correction. The hope is that in providing a glimpse from the other side of the curtain, pilots consider the veiled threats and whispers as just that.

blow.n.gasket

11th Oct 2017, 11:51

Your 7 year business cycle sounds suspiciously like a Shemitah cycle.
GANN’S “THE DECENNIAL CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET , I've found to be more accurate.

Rated De

11th Oct 2017, 19:14

blow.n.gasket, a shekel here or there is quite likely! :ok:

The point, as I am sure you are aware, was following the previous post, as Keg alluded to the bit in the business cycle where the advantage is with organised labour is when a collapse is imminent! The 'cycle' is used over and over to drive through concessions.

It will be interesting to watch Ryanair pilots as they deal with an adversary far more advanced (and dark)as it relates to dealing with people and hopefully redefine pilot terms and conditions to a more respectful footing. Whether the pilot body worldwide understands the paradigm shift of the demographic impact remains to be seen!

hitansh

12th Oct 2017, 17:39

Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.

training wheels

12th Oct 2017, 22:03

Hong Kong Express are cancelling flights due to a shortage of pilots.

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express (http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201710/06/P2017100601037.htm)

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express (http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201710/04/P2017100400712.htm)

The CAD is highly concerned about HKE's decision to cancel 18 scheduled flights in early October, which is a peak season for travel. After being notified in the afternoon on September 28, the CAD has taken a number of measures within a short period of time to minimise inconvenience and disturbance to the affected passengers, which included tasking the Executive Chairman and President of HKE to attend to the matter personally so as to ensure that every affected passenger would be taken care of properly; summoning its management several times and urging them to safeguard the interests of the travelling public, and to contact the affected passengers and explain to the public the situation as soon as possible; and contacting and seeking help from other local airlines to provide services to passengers in need.

I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.

PoppaJo

13th Oct 2017, 06:50

Regionals will suffer with a lack of Captains and will probably fall into the trap where they can’t upgrade FOs quick enough to keep up with the walking skippers who are being hired onto the 777 in the sandpit.

Having been apart of recruitment in a previous job for a jet operator in this country, forget about pilot shortages on a narrow body. We opened up a ad for a FO, had about 200 applicants in a week. Most were based in the ME or HKG.

Ryanair has long history with that sort of behaviour. The Ryan Family had a share in a Airbus operator in this country and Asia once, cut Pilots pay to increase profits. Half the Captains walked costing it millons and a destroyed the brand causing it to rebrand years later. End result was then approaching pilots to take over 300k SGD to keep the place running.

Rated De

13th Oct 2017, 07:37

I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.

If the numbers floating around are accurate, far more than they dared release, only Mr Joyce would dare claim that debacle as a victory!

Cathay Pacific says Jetstar Hong Kong a 'branch office' of Qantas (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/cathay-pacific-says-jetstar-hong-kong-a-branch-office-of-qantas-20141022-119rkp.html)

"Littlebird"

13th Oct 2017, 12:21

Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.

Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...

wheels_down

13th Oct 2017, 12:37

Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...

Varies from carrier to carrier. Some like Ryanair or Easy have some serious resources behind their programs which are very much incident free and produce some great pilots.

Then you’ve got carriers in this country who are too focused on skimping everything they don’t back up their own programs which has pilots slamming tails on runways on their first flights, selecting incorrect flap settings....or up in Indo landing short of seawalls....:ugh:

Not the checkies fault though, they are given nil resources to begin with.

Piltdown Man

13th Oct 2017, 12:53

Wheels down - I disagree. Easy and RYR have serious resources but they don’t spend a single penny on ab-initial programmes and initial type ratings. RYR recruits even pay for their own selection. So their victims cough up the cash. RYR also don’t pay their staff for any costs incurred whilst training and neither do they get sector pay. This is now costing the pikey a fortune. What a pity!

PM

hitansh

13th Oct 2017, 20:18

Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...

Airlines are mending quality while rejecting the majority from XYZ Academies.
Some good academies are CAE, FTA, CTC. There might be a few exceptions but quality is in Ab-Initio Programs.

clear to land

14th Oct 2017, 05:36

Quality is NOT in ab-initio programs. When you find pilots arriving for training expecting to be spoon fed, who have been flying jets previously not being able to compute a descent profile without VNAV, not being able to do basic mental maths and unable to relate that Attitude + Power = Performance nor understand some fundamental theory then it is obvious the ab-initio training is seriously failing the Cadets. It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today. :ugh:

Rated De

14th Oct 2017, 06:18

It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today.Very true.
It is well known that prior to any order being made, airline executives get to 'fly' simulators and are shown how easily automation handles it all!. It allows little boys to live out their dreams and of course drives the fallacy that anyone can do it. As Mr O Leary has publicly said numerous times, automation does everything these days. The script given to him contains all sorts of put downs, occasionally he will wander off reservation as his own personal biases tend to infect his sad rhetoric.

Qantas' Alan Joyce had a bit of a go at Aer Lingus pilot school, the public story is his eyesight let him down.

Am told from friends in the Qantas group, the former JQ CEO Bruce Buchanan (the BCG accountant) was going on leave one year and was asked his intentions. He replied (and I paraphrase), 'he was going to get an A320 licence'. All miraculously achieved in a few weeks! Amazing!

Of course the skill set takes acumen, time and expense to attain. As Mr Joyce found out some people just can't meet the standard.
Airlines are very concerned of a structural shortage, the emergence of the ME3 and the Chinese carriers continues to absorb lots of the existing supply.

Thus it is completely predictable that the use of the cadet programs will intensify, ultimately will the airlines have to self fund training? This is already evident in many airlines in Europe and the USA.
In the interim expect the manufacturers to pump out PR on the pilot less aircraft, all achieved by sometime next month!

Chocks Away

15th Oct 2017, 09:22

Lookleft: Sorry but I have to correct the ledger here.
JQ was hurriedly started in a last minute attempt to stop a well backed Spirit Airlines launching their B737 ops based out of Avalon. Spirit media launch there with MD Mike Dixon obviously cancelled, given Pornstars' media launch the day before!

Rated De

23rd Oct 2017, 22:58

Of course Straya is different....

Air Force To Recall Up To 1,000 Retired Military Pilots After Trump Unexpectedly Revises Sept 11 Executive Order | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-22/trump-revises-sept-11-executive-order-recall-1000-retired-pilots)

Rated De

25th Oct 2017, 07:40

Meetings to tempt Cathay Pacific pilots to switch jobs cancelled after legal warning | South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2116757/meetings-tempt-cathay-pacific-pilots-switch-jobs-cancelled)

From memory Longreach could do the same thing in Australia; control reduced supply....:ok:

CX management will react typically like O'leary, derision and divisiveness. Throw in a legal threat.

Control supply like doctors do and you have the game, but organised labour long ago abandoned strategic thinking...

CurtainTwitcher

25th Oct 2017, 07:51

CX couldn't have handed Longreach a better PR opportunity, massive free advertising way beyond what they could have possibly spent themselves.

TTY

2nd Nov 2017, 02:59

Cae moving in to Tamworth , not quite the way the Mayor described it.
CAE Oxford lease at Tamworth | Newsroom | BAE Systems | Australia (http://www.baesystems.com/en-aus/article/bae-systems-australia-welcomes-cae-lease-at-tamworth). More on Northern Daily Leader site.

Dark Knight

3rd Nov 2017, 00:03

However, most likely the CAE Tamworth training will be for overseas airline students.

Good business by CAE and good for Tamworth.

Rated De

3rd Nov 2017, 01:59

Good business by CAE and good for Tamworth.

Perhaps it is worth considering that the closure of the navigation aids by Airservices saw flying schools without any supporting infrastructure with which to train their students!

http://www.airservicesaustralia.com/projects/nrp/

Maybe the lack of any serviceable aids and indeed an ILS for student use was also overlooked...

Dark Knight

3rd Nov 2017, 04:21

The opening of a CAE Oxford base in Tamworth will cope with expansion of business resulting from good business practices by CAE.

It is believed Tamworth offers all the necessary, required aids needed for training up to and including an ILS.

Rated De

3rd Nov 2017, 04:40

It is believed Tamworth offers all the necessary, required aids needed for training up to and including an ILS.

Yep the only ILS for miles around! :ok:

Rabbitwear

3rd Nov 2017, 09:31

Maybe QF should re-open the Longreach base !!

Rated De

7th Nov 2017, 21:39

Experts said fewer public service flights, falling profits and lower passenger demand (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/falling-profits-to-blame-for-canberra-to-sydney-cancellations-former-qantas-economist-20171101-gzcgwp.html) could be seeing more cancellations for Canberra, while passengers in Sydney have been told staffing shortages and competing priorities on other routes were adding to the problem.

Although not mentioned contractors flying Qantas owned aircraft (also insured by QF) are taking industrial action, (in the interests of clarity, they are still flying their aircraft-applying the contract) so one ponders whether the rumoured, not accepting MEL is biting Qantas. No wonder Qantas would keep any impact subdued as if it is known their only resort, (should QF pilots not fly additional flights to cover any shortage)would be to utilise secondary boycott provisions.

Will Qantas pilots realise and capitalise on a shortage is structural in nature and made worse by delayed training?

Leverage is everything! Ask Ryanair pilots

Blitzkrieger

7th Nov 2017, 22:56

Still listening to economists is problem number 1!

I would challenge the good Doctors' assertions if I were the Minister.

pylonracer

9th Nov 2017, 13:44

I think this question is redundant. There has never been a pilot shortage aside from a cyclic recruitment phase.......

Rated De

11th Nov 2017, 05:06

I think this question is redundant. There has never been a pilot shortage aside from a cyclic(sic) recruitment phase....... Perhaps you are right, with less than 300 Australians obtaining CPL per annum, a huge number of ATPL being exercised by baby boomer pilots and all this 'fake news', just a cyclical shortage! There are a few pilot unions that could use your insight! :E

Is America's airline industry headed for a major pilot shortage? | Fox Business (http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/10/22/is-americas-airline-industry-headed-for-major-pilot-shortage.html)

America Pilot Shortage Effect on Regional Flights, Ticket Prices | Fortune (http://fortune.com/2017/10/16/pilot-shortage-airports-tickets-flights/)

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/air-force-secretary-warns-pilot-shortage-worsens-people-burning-out.html

Air Force has a pilot shortage due to lack of training resources - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-has-a-pilot-shortage-due-to-lack-of-training-resources-2017-10)

Air Force pilot shortage climbs to 2,000, inundated aviators carry 'a very heavy burden? | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/11/10/air-force-pilot-shortage-climbs-to-2000-inundated-aviators-carry-very-heavy-burden.html)

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/pilot-crisis-has-horizon-air-grappling-with-industrys-new-reality/

As the US major airlines announced they retire by 2020 substantial numbers of senior pilots, pilots ought take a pay cut just to make sure?
No doubt Australia is different as the national exceptionalism myth is still strong...
Australia is no different nor exceptional

:=

DeltaT

11th Nov 2017, 17:28

interesting articles.
Can you please write one that tells us what makes this pilot shortage different from all the other ones in the past where the world nearly collapsed then too.

Rated De

11th Nov 2017, 21:32

Can you please write one that tells us what makes this pilot shortage different from all the other ones in the past where the world nearly collapsed then too.

It isn't my opinion I don't write the articles, your government has its own concerns, key labour replacements are among the challenges which include:

Aged care provision
Tax base shrinkage
Asset market prices

The projected growth over the next two decades,however, show that the growth of the 65+population will be more than twice as fast as the total population

https://www.adelaide.edu.au/hugo-centre/publications/policybriefs/APMRC_Policy_Brief_Vol_2_2.pdf

Your treasury has done the work for you. If you are inclined to do some research, feel free!

https://demographics.treasury.gov.au/content/discussion.asp?NavID=6

DeltaT

12th Nov 2017, 07:54

I don't think you have been around in the aviation industry long enough to distinguish the smell of bullsh*t from Jet A1.

Mods please close this thread, nothing new here.

patty50

12th Nov 2017, 08:36

Perhaps you are right, with less than 300 Australians obtaining CPL per annum

Curious where you got this number from? How many CPLs is an appropriate number to produce per year? Do we have 300 per year leaving the industry?

PoppaJo

12th Nov 2017, 08:37

KRUSTY 34

14th Nov 2017, 02:52

PoppaJo has covered most of the bases.

A former colleague of mine is a captain with China Eastern, Melbourne based, commuting contract, gross salary approx 3 times what he was earning with VA!

With the massive expansion projected for the Asia Pacific over the next 2 decades, I believe it is inevitable the big major players will have to offer something similar.

The smaller local operators will have to completely change their mindset. Frankly, something I do not think they are capable of.

The senior management of a well discussed regional airline has been predicting parity of captain numbers by Christmas, for the last 5 years! Last week that old chestnut of blind denial surfaced again. At the moment they have 11 Captains about to tender their resignations, and they’re just the ones we know about!

“Happy trails Hans!” :ugh:

Jeps

14th Nov 2017, 03:51

Whilst i agree with PoppaJo there are many unhappy drivers overseas it seems there is still a reluctance to 'reintroduce' them back into oz by the major operators. I know of a few that got the nod from overseas but i know of many more good operators and good people who didn't even get close whilst others with very minimal experience did. I think that whilst over the past couple of decades the whole shortage thing has been largely B.S the baby boomer apocalypse might be coming within the next 5 years. There are many at QF alone who plan on going early and don't seem to have any intention of alerting the company to this fact.

CurtainTwitcher

14th Nov 2017, 04:28

I know of a few that got the nod from overseas but i know of many more good operators and good people who didn't even get close whilst others with very minimal experience did.
They probably are financially secure and therefore aren't malleable enough...

mrdeux

14th Nov 2017, 19:39

There are many at QF alone who plan on going early and don't seem to have any intention of alerting the company to this fact.

The contract requires 28 days...and that's all that they'll get from most.

Berealgetreal

15th Nov 2017, 01:37

Arewegettingjets

15th Nov 2017, 02:52

There is a shortage of intelligent young people that see a future in an industry where conditions are only going backwards.

At every EBA we are told we have to give something up to keep pace with inflation. The end result is that intelligent people that do their due diligence will choose another career path.

Perhaps "giving up something" for EBA's is standard across all industries. Regardless, find me an Airline Pilot that would encourage their child to take up flying.

Do Lawyers of 20 years experience go backwards? Doctors? Bankers? Can't really find anything that I pay for that is cheaper going forward.

Now is the time for the choke hold yet nothing seems to be happening.

Anyway 5 minutes of typing is probably too much on this topic. Who gives a ..

Most doctors and lawyers negotiate individual contracts, not EBAs.

Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours?

No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions.

havick

15th Nov 2017, 02:59

SOPS

15th Nov 2017, 04:01

There are too many unhappy pilots in the Sandpit and Honkers to fill jets for a number of years to come in this country.

Rex will be fine as long as captains don’t start walking faster than they are hiring cadets. Issue for Rex is they are seeing now Saab Captains taking on 777 jobs in Dubai when requirements were dropped recently. Large pay and lifestyle change which will sway many.

The issue at hand that I see now is nobody is learning to fly the ‘traditional way’. Flying clubs are going broke and are closing down all over the place. My local had sold two aircraft and made an instructor redundant in order to avoid bankruptcy. Having a look at the online booking system the whole week is bare expect a few weekend bookings. 10 years back I had to book in a month ahead to secure a 172 on a Sunday arvo.

Any shortages now I would be blaming dysfunctional management and HR bodies making pilots run from the joint. Happening more often than none.

The Aero Club where I learnt to fly is the same. Used to be the place was booked out, 7 days a week...you had to book a month ahead. I went there for lunch the other day..the place (in fact the whole airport ) is dead. You could have set a bomb off ( note..this is a figure of speech) and not killed anyone.

Over regulation and "user pays" has killed the industry. The CFI said that none was learning to fly privately anymore..it is just two expensive.

Rated De

15th Nov 2017, 04:02

Your(sic) also forgetting that in the medical industry that doctors control the supply of doctors.

The key question pilots collectively should ask is what is the point of paid representation?

The shortage is structural.

At every EBA we are told we have to give something up to keep pace with inflation. The end result is that intelligent people that do their due diligence will choose another career path.

Yes in Australia, in the late 1980's Bill Kelty, Hawke and Keating effectively removed arbitrated outcomes holding them at nominal CPI, which is way behind REAL CPI.
As such real wage decline occurred across many industries. As real purchasing power declines, the economy lags. The result for the policy maker is reduce the cost of debt all in order to keep the consumerism wheels turning.

Now in Australia the real estate (Morrison) treasurer laments wages growth. It is wages growth (in real terms) that drives increased spending and growth.

Companies the western world over cannot understand what Henry Ford summarised for them over 100 years ago and I paraphrase:

'If i fail to pay my workers enough to buy my cars then I do not have a viable business.
Everything has a limit.

Suppressing real wage growth in aviation is two fold:

Learning to fly becomes too expensive (relative to other pursuits)
Pilots leave as the return on an investment is insufficient.

combine this with an aging demographic and pilots relaise their collective representation has assisted the denigration by:

Perhaps "giving up something" for EBA's is standard across all industries.

Perhaps pilots in Europe, Asia, Australia and North America may want to critically ask what is left to give up and what if any push back is their representation making?

Dexta

15th Nov 2017, 22:50

Most doctors and lawyers negotiate individual contracts, not EBAs.

Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours?

No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions.
To add to this also, Doctors and lawyers do not lose their income/jobs if they get a kidney stone, have a minor heart issue, high sugar/cholesterol level, feel down, drink a bit too much, become an inadvertent criminal by transgressing one of many thousands of regulations etc. etc. And if a Doctor or Lawyer really messes up then one person may die or go to prison, yet if a pilot does the same then potentially hundreds may die.
Do Doctors and Lawyers have annual checks of their performance?
If you are young and love to fly then become a doctor or lawyer, have a holiday house and an aircraft in either Canada, NZ or USA and go over there on a regular basis (and probably claim it on tax) and enjoy your flying.

Rated De

15th Nov 2017, 23:34

Applying rational expectations to the pilot supply model has one interesting short coming: Pilots actually didn't know the model and therefore their assumptions were not correct.

What I am implying is that there is a great deal of leverage where supply of pilots exceeds demand.

This has generational consequences as companies could push down terms and conditions. They did this for decades. Aided by an adversarial IR posture this was a foregone outcome with ample supply ensuring more candidates than needed.

Moral hazard fell on the pilot. The company no longer bore responsibility for training or endorsements, contracts didn't compensate when a commercial cancellation occurred or sick leave provisions were less than an office worker. Pilots were paid only to fly, sitting around was at their expense.

From General Aviation to Airlines this became the new model.

When pilots adjusted to the reality of the model, it was oftentimes too late (age and financial commitment)...

With real wage growth stagnant and other opportunities available, people do make rational choices: they find ways to be compensated for their time, they do not spend $150k learning to fly. The statistics although time lagged and opaque are bearing this reality: There is inadequate supply.

The great weakness of the model that IR/HR created, aided by pilot representatives who knowing there was adequate supply continued to give things up to 'secure the flying'

This loop has returned and choked off a lot of supply and with a demographic surge in retirements it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

CaptCloudbuster

16th Nov 2017, 01:40

Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises?

It worked for me..... 35 years later I tell anyone who asks they should go for it if they take a 1/2 hour trial introductory flight and their hearts remain in the clouds for the next 48hrs.

If you don't have the passion, don't even start.

Global Aviator

16th Nov 2017, 02:26

CCB well said, if you have the passion you’ll never work a day in your life, ok maybe the red eye flights are working...

The journey through GA, military or whatever is just that a journey.

Embrace it and enjoy. If your doing it for any other reason as you see on these threads then?

neville_nobody

16th Nov 2017, 05:08

However there is more to life than being an aero sexual. Even those who are that way inclined tend to slow down eventually. You cannot continually move house chasing the next flash aeroplane for peanuts, if you want anything resembling a home life.
I suspect that the younger generation are weighing up the pros and cons and given that money is now a con they are doing something else.

Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be.

Rated De

16th Nov 2017, 08:29

Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be. I completely agree. I am not a milliennial. These younger people face expensive choices. Not so long ago a house cost three time average earnings. Yes people worked hard, but generally one salary meant that one parent was at home when junior got home from school. Career paths were more assured. Globalisation hadn't happened. Flying as a passion carried sufficient recompense, it generated a balance; one could enjoy a blessed work environment and a reasonable home life. That is the building block of a society: balance.

Airline management with adversarial HR posture has driven down terms and conditions (it worked for a few decades on unlimited supply, it is not like it was 35 years ago), whilst costs for following a dream have risen. With a rise in demographically induced retirements beginning in all western economies HR/IR created a problem for themselves; people are not learning to fly. HR do not understand, airline management do not yet understand. I can assure you in the finance game there are hedge funds trying to work out how to position themselves when chunks of existing workforces the world over begin the march to retirement. The impacts on asset markets will be substantial, aviation is not any different and labour skill shortages among the considerations of the money men.

Rational actors choose something else when the return is not on investment. They are choosing and the IR/HR model is ill equipped to accept the paradigm has shifted.

NGsim

17th Nov 2017, 02:32

Passion doesn't pay the mortgage - in fact it often leads to paying more than 1 mortgage.....

CaptCloudbuster

17th Nov 2017, 03:28

When I started just after the Pilots Dispute we then got the "recession we had to have". Jobs were very difficult to get and there was absolutely no movement within regional airlines. I spent many years living in an Aboriginal Community during the 90's as a result. I eventually got lucky with a Regional and the thought of one day flying a Dash 8 in Command before retirement was what sustained me and all the contemporaries I associated with. (A regional mortgage quite achievable on that payscale).

Just at the moment I was able to take a slot on a regional jet the Company stipulated a requirement to sign an individual contract outside of the EBA. Much angst and turmoil ensued, I remained on my turboprop. (Sounds familiar - history keeps repeating).

It didn't stop us though from dreaming big, taking holidays to do Maths/Physics, cramming together for our CX interviews to hopefully, maybe getting that one shot at the big time....

My point is that in order to enjoy the journey one needs first the passion. It's always been so and it will always be so.

If you don't have it, you won't be able to withstand the **** conditions required to eventually get a gig on a regional turbo prop. That's all you can reasonably expect from the get go.

Any further up the ladder is a bonus. Don't forget to enjoy the whole ride.

I'm sure today's challenges are different - I don't think though that it's any better or worse. All this will fall on deaf ears however, you see we also had negative pilots back then too..... I used to hearten myself in the knowledge though that people with these attitudes made it easier for people like me with a positive outlook (and the others of like mind with whom I chose to associate) to shine and recognise when an opportunity arose.

Good luck to all...

morno

17th Nov 2017, 03:51

Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion?

Things called bills and a family came along. Provide for them before fueling your aviation desire.

Rated De

17th Nov 2017, 05:00

Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises?
I agree with that sentiment, but respectfully suggest that it isn't at issue. Sadly HR/IR know that is what motivates most pilots. Hospital administration also are aware that the desire to help is part of a nurse's make up. It is seen as a lever point not a strategic asset.

There is an argument in economic circles around labour importing at times of skill shortage to keep pressure on real wage rises. It is interesting though as globalised supply is a two way street for pilots perhaps this argument is of less relevance. I would contend that the lockout of staff, even those not involved with the action at Qantas was designed to draw concession from staff. It may have worked in the short term, but the model of relationship is broken. It is terminal at Ryanair too and have a read about Cathay.

Real wage declines, degradation of terms and conditions, moral hazard (as risks are passed to pilots) where income is lost when flights are cancelled, to fly a company aircraft you pay for the endorsement and if unlucky enough to work for Ryanair you are a 'contractor' with responsibility for superannuation and even car parking. Over time people made rational decisions and assessed the long term viability of such a pursuit. For those already down the rabbit hole perhaps there was no other option. Qantas pilots talk of the lost career path as JQ grew but they stagnated. Imagine living in Sydney on Rex wages or Qlink wages as an FO?

Unfortunately as Dixon and Joyce said, job security is a thing of the past, at least for employees not in their cult. Passion as stated won't actually pay the bills, so slowly people chose other things. Now demographic shortages are biting industry wide (slowly) accelerating the decline.

In setting up an adversarial IR posture, emulating Ryanair, driving 'lower unit cost' the scene was set for the downward pressure they wanted on that unit cost of labour. Ironically the pursuit of which sowed the seeds of the shortage which is (in part) increasingly evident today.

CaptCloudbuster

17th Nov 2017, 05:52

A few more observations from personal experience...

There is a much bigger aviation world out there than a SYD based regional position. I didn't finally buy my own home in a Capital City (Perth) until I was 45 years old.

I'd be looking to break into the WA aviation game if I was looking to further my career. A 4 bedroom house can be rented for $370 pw only 5 mins to the airport (https://www.rent.com.au/property/2-millard-cl-ashfield-wa-6054-1207549)

The median house price has plummeted over the last few years.

I agree that family should come 1st over persuing an aviation dream. That's why I didn't get married until I was 35. I also caution anyone who asks that unless you start your journey passionate, footloose and fancy free in your 20's, your chances of eventual success diminishes exponentially. It's just an observation of mine that to succeed all the way in this game sacrifices must be made in the beginning. Nothing's changed. From where I sit now in the L seat of a major Aus airline, everyone beside me has had similar tales of sacrifice to tell.

Rated De

30th Nov 2017, 00:36

Christmas Crisis: 15,000 American Air Flights Without Pilots Over Holidays Due To "Glitch" | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-29/christmas-crisis-15000-american-air-flights-without-pilots-over-holidays-due-glitch)

Of course Australia is different!

CurtainTwitcher

30th Nov 2017, 00:55

FedEx buys Cessnas, will develop pilot training program (http://www.impactpub.com.au/aircargo/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15143:fedex-buys-cessnas-will-develop-pilot-training-program&catid=85&Itemid=435)

Latest News
Wednesday, 29 November 2017
FedEx Express is buying 50 new Cessna SkyCourier 408 turboprops to add to its feeder aircraft fleet - and has options for 50 more.
The purchase - plus 30 ATR 75-600s announced recently - are part of the company's strategy to strategy to modernise its feeder fleet and develop a pilot training program, helping to offset the growing global pilot shortage.

The Cessna SkyCourier 408 has more than twice the maximum payload of the Cessna 208Bs that currently are in FedEx’s fleet. Its large cargo doors mean it can handle up to three LD3 containers.

Delivery of the Cessnas is expected to start mid-2020.

KRUSTY 34

30th Nov 2017, 01:47

Fascinating Rated De.

A computer program afflicted with the same delusion as its Human hosts.

And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.

Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”. :D

Rated De

30th Nov 2017, 05:26

if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.

When all you are is a hammer, everything has to be a nail...

Amusing to watch the adversarial IR model slowly fall apart, in between their steak lunches, weekends off and Christmas break...Their model only accepts negative inputs when calculating pilot labour unit cost :)

Rated De

11th Dec 2017, 21:48

Qantas Future Pilot Program offers uni aviation graduates jobs (http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/qantas-future-pilot-program-offers-uni-graduates-jobs-with-airline/news-story/8e32e2944c9ed7dca99a9b4b02678bd4#sharehash)

Of course there will be plenty reminding me that Australia is different!
First GA, then regionals!

Still convinced of Australian exceptionalism?

patty50

11th Dec 2017, 23:05

3/4 are (on first glance) females...that is not coincidental or accidental.

Nothing to do with a pilot shortage, just a female pilot shortage. King Alan has decreed it must be 20% next year.

TBM-Legend

12th Dec 2017, 00:55

1st transgender pilot too I guess..

Rated De

12th Dec 2017, 04:33

Of course it must be a positive affirmative action program!

Qantaslink lack supply.

Johhny Utah

12th Dec 2017, 07:53

1st transgender pilot too I guess..

Already transgender pilots in the Qantas ranks. Nothing to see here - keep it moving...

KRUSTY 34

12th Dec 2017, 08:03

Very interesting John.

QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots.

The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.

No mention of that in the slick little ad?

indamiddle

12th Dec 2017, 08:57

Would be very interesting to see if iapa would publish a list of pilots by age, aircraft type, rank etc that could be used to project retirement rates over the next 10 years.
I would expect QF management to have this info already.
It would shine the light of truth on this conversation instead of the incessant speculation.
Then again this is pprune so possibly it would fuel the debate even more💕💤

Rated De

12th Dec 2017, 09:48

I would expect QF management to have this info already.
Of course they do.
Why else bring in the Jetconnect implied threat (real or not)?
And propose a subsidiary gets A320?

QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots.

The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.

No mention of that in the slick little ad?

The irony is that with declining supply the IR/HR sorcerers may well have to provide a career path; something their every waking hour is spent removing.
Of course it will be badged as something they thought of, with a catchy title, but their model for people management is done...Get a fork!

A Squared

12th Dec 2017, 18:32

And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.

Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”. :D

I haven't read anything which supports that. As nearly as I can tell, the union's grievance is not a result of the amount offered, but that an offer was made unilaterally, while the contract (according to the grievance) requires that the union be consulted prior to any such ad-hoc offer.

Rated De

12th Dec 2017, 19:48

No point in getting too worked up about it.

I don't think anyone is too worked up!
I think the emerging structural shortage is causing the HR/IR people to be worked up.

It will take time but demographics is the surest bet there is! Airline HR/IR are on the wrong side of this one! :)

fearcampaign

12th Dec 2017, 20:50

Indamiddle

You raise a good point.
Talking to a manager yesterday brought up an interesting point.
There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.

Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.
A large factor is the increase in unforecast medical retirements particularly in Long Haul. Divisors Have been 185 for a long time on all fleets. Wasn't that long ago 170 was max for Only two BP. It then went to 175. QF didn't fly as far or for as long either.
Brave new world with the 787 flying close to 19-20 hour TOD, all night, doing the equivalent of 195+ credit hours infinatum.
Glad to see the scientific studies into passenger health are going ahead. Sure they will work backwards from the desired answer required and who gives a s$&@ about Crew health anyway. It's not a bonus metric is it?
In the future, Flying direct London and New York will have pilots working harder with more fatigue, more jet lag, more night flying with more stress and more sickness.
Regardless of intended retirements a greater number of pilots will have involuntary retirement forced upon them for medical reasons.
Of course the highest number of divorce occurs and is increasing on the Long Haul fleets.
Perhaps this is the Airline solution? Work the guys and gals so much harder for less money. When the marriages fall apart they will have to work to older age.
Genius. Who says the CEO isn't worth $25,000,000 a year.

Jeps

12th Dec 2017, 21:03

I can back that up fearcampaign. Even the small group of LH drivers I know all of what you have said is accurate when applied to them. One has been forced to retire due to medical reasons (age 60) and the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more.

Rated De

12th Dec 2017, 22:09

the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more. Whilst making certain people very wealthy and generating a lot of copy cat business for Freehills, the grounding and lockout broke trust between the employee and employer.

Mr Joyce and Mr Clifford are the darlings of the right wing, showing those unions. Those unions are nobbled and the domestic roll out of Jetconnect doesn't even bother to stop for directions from the union, it is by-passed. A spent force.

Qantas domestic pilots were grounded and locked out when not involved. Strangely Jetconnect and Jetstar were not.

A whole wheelbarrow of weasel words and faux recognition may, according to people like Todd Samson, sway the masses to join the company direction. My strongly held view is that most people remember all too well that day in October 2011. Most employees understand all too well the results of speaking out publicly. An adversarial system is brimming with tools to tackle those who challenge.

As I have stated, one CEO and board take the business down, make people redundant and drive thorough reductions. They then parachute out. A board then inserts a CEO to circuit break and business continues.

In the criminal code, convicted of a dishonesty offence renders a person unable to be a trustworthy witness. Whilst their actions are carefully constructed to be lawful, I suspect that as long as that board and management are there trust can never really be restored.

With accelerating retirement rates those pilots affected will politely refuse to be drawn into a conversation and comply with the minimum their contract obliges. That is something the Mr O Leary is grappling with. As troppo pointed out Mr Joyce is out of tricks.

CurtainTwitcher

18th Dec 2017, 16:32

Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over

Stefan Stern

I don’t even know how there would be industrial action in Ryanair,” the company’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, observed at its annual general meeting in Dublin less than three months ago. “There isn’t a union.”

There is now. In fact, not merely one union, but several pilots’ unions from all over Europe will shortly be recognised for the purpose of collective bargaining with the airline. This is not simply a U-turn by O’Leary: it is a full loop-the-loop aerial extravaganza, with multicoloured vapour trails and a brass band playing in celebratory support.

Industrial action by Irish pilots, set for this Wednesday, was suspended on Sunday evening. The company should be sitting down with representatives from the union Impact tomorrow. Unions from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal should all now get talks to avoid strike action in those countries as well.

Along with the usual refreshments served at such meetings, there ought to be a decent slab of humble pie for Ryanair’s management to consume. The company has resisted this for years. Doomsday must surely be near, because O’Leary has previously talked about hell freezing over or cutting off his arms before sitting down to deal with unions in this way.

Management is going to have to change its tune. Pilots do not have a “difficult job”, O’Leary has said. They are “precious about themselves” and “full of their own self-importance”. (He later apologised for the remarks, and said they were aimed at pilots working for rival airlines.) Now his pilots and their representatives will have the chance to ensure their pay and conditions improve, in order to avoid a repeat of the recent embarrassment over cancelled flights and missing crew.

Planes are just “buses with wings”, O’Leary has also observed. And here we get to the point about Ryanair and what has made it such a success. The company has called our bluff. We might moan about the indignities of travelling with it. We might balk at the apparent disdain the chief executive has for his staff and customers. But we keep coming back for more – even after thousands of flights were cancelled owing to the airline’s staffing problems. Their prices are low. Ryanair does not pretend to offer comfort or pleasure. It will fly you from one airport to another more cheaply than most of its competitors will.

On a recent edition of the Radio 4 comedy show I’m Sorry I Haven’t a Clue, John Finnemore said that Ryanair’s real advertising slogan ought to be: “You knew what you were getting into.” The gag produced a big laugh of recognition.

There is some sort of consumer cognitive dissonance going on here. Which? has just reported that Ryanair is the joint worst airline, according to its members. To which the company responds that it is also one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing airlines. Both claims can seemingly be true at the same time.

The airlines business is pretty weird. Customers can be dragged screaming from an overbooked plane, as happened earlier this year on a United flight, yet airlines continue to trade and investors continue to hold their shares. It’s business as usual.

Matt Levine, a commentator at Bloomberg, has even suggested that, since most big investors hold shares in all the major stockmarket listed airlines, they are pretty relaxed about how they treat customers as long as between them they continue to dominate the market and deliver returns. Normal competition this is not.

It is all a very long way from the earlier glamour of the jet set and the aspirational image of international travel. Ryanair cabin crew have been told to try harder to flog more perfume and trinkets in the sky. And while piloting a plane was once seen as a dream job, as many as half of Ryanair’s pilots are not employees of the company at all, but agency staff, sometimes required to enter into intricate contractual arrangements with the airline. This has led to the pilots’ tax affairs being investigated by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs.

Now Ryanair’s approach has collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. You still need pilots to fly planes – which is, of course, a difficult and highly responsible job.

And the 21st-century solution that the company has chosen to get it out of its difficulties? Trade unionism, employee representation and collective bargaining. It’s just like the old days. O’Leary has adopted the crash position, and workers around the world will have noticed.

• Stefan Stern is director of the High Pay Centre and co-author of Myths of Management

Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over (http://archive.is/GVToP)

CurtainTwitcher

18th Dec 2017, 19:28

Another interesting & detailed study by RAND focused on the US pilot situation: Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation (https://web.archive.org/web/20170121025410/https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD300/RGSD351/RAND_RGSD351.pdf). Many references & data sources included.

from the report, page 5 (note the tone, pilots are simply "products" to tptb)
New commercial pilot production is down from 10042 in 1998 to 8140 in 2013. New CFI pilot production is down from 4647 in 1998 to 3723 in 2013. There are many reasons for this decrease in production, mostly connected to a decreased demand of airline pilots. This decreased demand lasted for a decade from 2002-2012. The four main causes of this stagnation in demand were the industry slowdown after the 9/11 attack, the major airline bankruptcies and consolidations, the 2008/2009 recession, and the lack of retirements after the 2007 mandatory age requirement relaxation from age 60 to age 65.

The last factor many studies point to as a cause of future pilot shortages is forecasts of continuing expansion of the major airlines. The 2014 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2014– 2033 forecasts 7550 new airliners in the United States and a demand for 88000 new pilots in North America during the forecast period (Boeing 2014)

bafanguy

18th Dec 2017, 19:48

Another good RAND study on pilot supply (Mike McGee's dissertation is a great one):

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1412/RAND_RR1412.pdf

mrdeux

18th Dec 2017, 21:26

There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.

The ages used to be in the bidding data, so if you've kept any of the old stuff, you can work it out roughly yourself. Recruitment has always been in batches, so the retirements will probably come the same way.

Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are.

Approaching 65 would seem rather late in the event. Certainly no room for any planning with notice that short, even if people actually reply.

A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.

The disconnect is quite stunning. No information ever comes out of Sydney any more, other than spam. We find out what the fleet is doing from the frequent fliers. Why would we tell them anything...they never talk to us.

Blitzkrieger

18th Dec 2017, 23:36

Where there are smoke, there is fire.

The shortage is as real, but as undetectable as the lead up to CO poisoning. The change is gradual and insidious.

We’ll all look back on this time and think one of two things, either “I wish I was more aware of my worth” or “I told you so”.

The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots.

Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!

blow.n.gasket

19th Dec 2017, 05:19

The USA military’s, planned northern hemisphere spring offensive against North Korea might change the landscape with regards to the “ shortage “ .

Rated De

19th Dec 2017, 05:29

The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots.

Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!I wholeheartedly agree. For decades careers, mine included were downtrodden with an adverse industrial bargaining system and an oversupply.

Whilst adversarial IR is still there ( at least in 4 weeks time-they get tired you know!), treating everything like a nail as a hammer is all they are, over supply has evaporated.

The signs are there, they are everywhere. This shortage is far bigger than any business cycle, hence they will deploy any leverage they have.

Having conversed with many pilots at Ryan air their fears are the same: They have an adversarial IR model, far worse than Australia, O'Leary openly denigrates them and you would not believe what happens to pilots and their tax affairs (rumoured) when they leave (not everyone though)
Only a few months ago, O'Leary chastised his pilots, over paid and all the rest. You know the same rubbish Olivia Wirth spewed out. Funny how O'Leary backed down.

He has no supply of pilots

Is America's airline industry headed for a major pilot shortage? | Fox Business (http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/10/22/is-americas-airline-industry-headed-for-major-pilot-shortage.html)

America Pilot Shortage Effect on Regional Flights, Ticket Prices | Fortune (http://fortune.com/2017/10/16/pilot-shortage-airports-tickets-flights/)

Pilot shortage: 600,000 new pilots needed over the next 20 years - are pilotless planes the answer? (http://www.traveller.com.au/pilot-shortage-600000-new-pilots-needed-over-the-next-20-years--are-pilotless-planes-the-answer-gy1bj9)

Management at major airlines have a problem; the paradigm has changed and for once, they are caught behind a demographic wave that will eventually, like Mr O'Leary cause them to back down, through gritted teeth I might hasten to add.

Stationair8

19th Dec 2017, 07:52

Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage.

IsDon

19th Dec 2017, 09:36

Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage.

Yes.

And they’ll have lots of meetings, complete with PowerPoint slides and lots of little sandwiches with the crusts cut off.

That’s after the corporate Christmas parties of course.

Better yet, I’m sure this can all wait to the New Year.

Jeps

19th Dec 2017, 10:09

A five point plan? Pfft. Everyone knows this problem has a silver bullet solution.

Rated De

19th Dec 2017, 10:24

Several airlines have accepted a pilot-less aircraft is a while off yet!

As such they are actively looking to value pilots as part of their strategic asset mix. They recognise if an airline has a primary function of flying passengers, then having pilots to do it is vital.

On declining supply of pilots, an adversarial IR posture is often at odds with this imperative.

There was an age where front line staff were an asset. A Qantas pilot, a Singapore girl.

It is not confined to aviation, HR/IR kick own goals elsewhere too :E

Many business leaders talk about treating human capital as a strategic asset, but few companies put the idea into practice. For many years, this was especially true in the oil and gas industry, where HR strategy — including recruiting, training, career development, and succession planning — was not seen as a top priority. More recently, however, the HR function in many energy companies has begun struggling to fill positions. The industry is suffering from a pronounced shortage of skilled, experienced technical professionals — especially those who can design, operate, and manage complex oil and gas exploration and production projects.

As more airlines realise retaining skilled pilots is an important strategic imperative, it is going to be fascinating to see whether weasel words are replaced with respect for contribution. Of course it will be through gritted teeth, but I never for one believed Mr O'Leary would be on bended knee to his pilots!

Rated De

19th Dec 2017, 10:27

Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage. Wasn't it 'four pillars' to return Qantas International from 'terminal' to 'transformed' :E

A five point plan? Pfft. Everyone knows this problem has a silver bullet solution

Hammer meet nail! If you polish it enough it is silver I suppose :=

Integrate Jetconnect
Give A320 to subsidiary
Roll out after well deserved break for Christmas, in New Year
Winning

Problem solved, pilots will come to heel like they always do!

"Littlebird"

19th Dec 2017, 18:58

Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public.
The first airline(s) that go this way will be the first to go out of business. How about you test this theory with family and friends. I have. I know a lot of people and not one said they would take the risk. They would rather go by rail by land or by old school ship across the oceans. In addition,the statement regarding less pilots will be needed. Yes maybe. As if the career choice isn't already comprimised and non appealing to the next generation? Even less will take it up. Another shortage perhaps in the remote control world? It's all relative.

gordonfvckingramsay

19th Dec 2017, 21:02

Meanwhile CASA sit back contemplating their navel :ugh:

Since when are distracted, fatigued, stressed, abused, deceived, outsourced and discarded pilots safe ones? And since when has a gladiator style inter-pilot competition been safe too?

CASA......Hellooo! Aren't you responsible for safety? Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain?

Rated De

19th Dec 2017, 21:17

Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public. Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.

Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be :E)

You notice volume of qualified applicants is not as historical trends indicate
You notice many applicants are from in 'the group'
You notice retirement rates trending up.
You notice 'those on hold' when contacted do not immediately rush to re-apply

What would you do?

Consulting IR you quickly decide that:

In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.

You integrate foreign pilots into domestic network on existing terms and conditions
You give a 'shiny metal jet' to a subsidiary
Consult with 'stakeholders'
You perhaps send out a pilot wide email on the technology change coming next week implying aircraft to be pilot less in 5 years

Quietly you also;

Cut training paths to increase 'output' of line pilots. What happens if the recruited talent has less experience or skills and needs additional training in the simulator? What happens if the regulator says no more cuts to training courses?
Get a simulator, as the additional training was not something you foresaw; after all pilots are bountiful and this never happened on a sustained basis before!
Slow acceptances from 'group pilots', thereby delaying shortages
'Announce' an exciting opportunity to complete University and enter an internship in the RHS of a turbo prop.
Allow flight operations to run roster limits (regulatory) as targets. Particularly where the pilots have substantial income at risk, like a domestic contract on the 737.
Do not allow any extended leave, give the minimum leave over strategically important periods, like Christmas
Quietly write to the senior pilots approaching 60, to ask for 'planning purposes' their intentions regarding retirement. You have noticed there aren't many replies.
Take a month off for Christmas, after all you work hard

Upon your return from your well earned break you observe that there is still a problem both with application volume and quality. You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. Such small omissions change materially and quantitatively the pool of qualified applicants.

Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

Jeps

19th Dec 2017, 21:34

You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements.

This. So Perfect

gordonfvckingramsay

19th Dec 2017, 21:36

The big problem is this: How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything.

That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest.
Your standard management will hide behind 'commercial in confidence', or 'oh that's just industrial troublemakers' etc. to put CASA off the scent. I think it's time for CASA to ask some very probing questions and demand some very frank answers from our great CEO's before the crisis really steps up a gear.

Sadly I defy anyone from CASA to send our big airlines and their multiple subcontractors even a Christmas card let alone a please explain.

Rated De

19th Dec 2017, 21:56

That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest.

Whilst I share your sentiment, regulatory capture is a fundamental flaw in many industries.

From banking and finance, to retail, regulators are captured by the voluminous and overwhelming resources of the industry they are supposed to regulate.
Governments progressively strip away resources as it suits the de-regulation apologists that constantly and loudly assert the industry is better 'self regulated'. For whom it is better when self regulated is strangely absent.

Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain?

I would strongly assert that the last line of defence for both management and the regulator is indeed the issue of strict liability.

IsDon

19th Dec 2017, 22:33

Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.

Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be :E)

You notice volume of qualified applicants is not as historical trends indicate
You notice many applicants are from in 'the group'
You notice retirement rates trending up.
You notice 'those on hold' when contacted do not immediately rush to re-apply

What would you do?

Consulting IR you quickly decide that:

In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.

You integrate foreign pilots into domestic network on existing terms and conditions
You give a 'shiny metal jet' to a subsidiary
Consult with 'stakeholders'
You perhaps send out a pilot wide email on the technology change coming next week implying aircraft to be pilot less in 5 years

Quietly you also;

Cut training paths to increase 'output' of line pilots. What happens if the recruited talent has less experience or skills and needs additional training in the simulator? What happens if the regulator says no more cuts to training courses?
Get a simulator, as the additional training was not something you foresaw; after all pilots are bountiful and this never happened on a sustained basis before!
Slow acceptances from 'group pilots', thereby delaying shortages
'Announce' an exciting opportunity to complete University and enter an internship in the RHS of a turbo prop.
Allow flight operations to run roster limits (regulatory) as targets. Particularly where the pilots have substantial income at risk, like a domestic contract on the 737.
Do not allow any extended leave, give the minimum leave over strategically important periods, like Christmas
Quietly write to the senior pilots approaching 60, to ask for 'planning purposes' their intentions regarding retirement. You have noticed there aren't many replies.
Take a month off for Christmas, after all you work hard

Upon your return from your well earned break you observe that there is still a problem both with application volume and quality. You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. Such small omissions change materially and quantitatively the pool of qualified applicants.

Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

I reckon you’re given HR way, way too much credit. Everything I’ve observed over the last 5-6 years shows that they’re not that strategic.

Moving Jetconnect aeroplanes to VH register will actually create more flying for mainline 737 pilots though the potential of the Trojan Horse is acknowledged by all- including Management.

Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330 pilots though the potential Trojan Horse is acknowledged by everyone-including Management.

I suspect the QLink ‘cadetships’ for aviation students is a slightly developed thought bubble I suspect created at quite low levels within the airline. Anyone with significant industry experience can see the strengths and weaknesses of this initiative and knows how it will play out. It’s a tactical solution to what is a strategic issue and like most tactical solutions may win that battle for a short time but the war is still being lost.

From my understanding Qantas has always written to the older pilots asking their intentions? So nothing new there?

Anyway, there is no doubt the industry is changing and it’s a delicious irony that the IR strategy of the last couple of decades has been the genesis of the current shortage and issues facing recruitment and retention of crew. It’s that lack of foresight and self awareness that makes me so confident there is no long term strategy behind what is occurring now. If there was we’d see the major airlines targeting high school students and finding ways of engaging them into airline pilot careers. Until that time they’re just managing the crisis in front of them.

Lezzeno

19th Dec 2017, 23:17

How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything.

Once upon a time this was a role taken on by a pilot union. Nowadays they just hold a ‘review’

OnceBitten

19th Dec 2017, 23:48

Maybe with inspiring videos like this for future pilots the shortage won't happen?

Emirates praises pilots, as Ryanair battles them | Arab News (http://www.arabnews.com/node/1211161/media)

Motivational stuff, The EK guys seem inspired! :hmm:

CurtainTwitcher

19th Dec 2017, 23:57

Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330

Are the 737 actually being used inefficiently? Sources indicate a 9% reduction in hours Jan 18 vs Jan 17. The source also indicates an 18% less flying hours compared to the peak in Aug 16. This final figure needs to be tempered with the fact it isn't like for like months.

Further, sources indicate only about 6.75 ~ 7 hours flying per 737 aircraft for (domestic) per day.

So I question the inefficiency argument. I see the inefficiency as a deliberate function of the two brand strategy. If the 737 was utilised like the J* A32x's, likely in the 10~12 hour per day range (typpical LCC), there would be an excess of seats domestically. Reducing 737 flying offers a structural subsidy to enhance the profitability of Jetstar, and maximise the QF yield instead of flooding the market with seats. The two branded strategy isn't all upside, and capacity has to be carefully managed, the 737 is the swing lever.

Oakape

20th Dec 2017, 01:06

https://www.pprune.org/middle-east/603321-what-joke.html

Keg

20th Dec 2017, 01:42

I reckon there is a bit of fat in the 737 utilisation. Certainly the Jetconnect deal is about getting better utilisation as is the Network A320s. I suspect though the reason is more about utilising them transcontinental to release A330 capacity internationally than any IR ploy (as Isdon pointed out).

So maybe ‘inefficient’ isn’t quite the correct term and perhaps releasing increased efficiency would have been a better way to put it? Either way it appears an increase in utilisation of the fleet and that’s a good thing for mainline crew- and of course still keeping an eye on that damned horse!

Rated De

20th Dec 2017, 06:29

I reckon you’re given (sic) HR way, way too much credit. Everything I’ve observed over the last 5-6 years shows that they’re not that strategic. Au contraire, I am not giving the 'credit' to HR, I give it to IR. Labour organisations play checkers, these people play chess.
There is precedent all over the industry for this type of play.
Whilst personally it may calm you to believe this is an accident, did JQ get bigger than Mr Dixon's promised 23 aircraft?
Jetconnect quietly bubbled along for a decade and assumed the form it is now, do you really believe that was mere accident?

In 2003 Jetconnect's principal activity was;

Is the employment and on-hire of leasing of cabin crew to operate domestic commercial aircraft flights within New Zealand.

to;

'Operation and management of aircraft in order to fulfill an operating schedule of trans Tasman commercial passenger flights'

With that small adjustment went domestic pilot density and salary.

Qantas pilots ought quietly ask themselves, can the same management who grounded and locked you out, called you 'terminal' and made millions from 'transformation' now really truly be trusted not to again play the same game?

RealityCzech

20th Dec 2017, 07:02

Rated De,

You're pretty repetitive with your criticism of Qantas management, HR, IR and aviation unions. Those are your views and that's fine.

So, you're good at criticising everyone involved, but what exactly is your solution to these problems for pilots? What is your plan? To do what legally? Practically? PR-wise? In EBA negotiations? PIA?

Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them :ok:

mikk_13

20th Dec 2017, 08:53

The aviation industry is dead.

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots.

In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews.

100,000 for a job with bad pay and employers that treat you badly. Eurowing has new contracts for A320 pilots- 2000€ per month. Who would want to become a pilot?

The atc recruitment in Europe is struggling. They don't have enough applications to fill the courses. Everyday there are ads on facebook for flight crew and atc.

This will take a decade to correct.

Icarus2001

20th Dec 2017, 11:51

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job.

Steady on there, where do you get those figures from?

It is not quite that bad yet.

dr dre

20th Dec 2017, 12:43

The aviation industry is dead.

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots.

In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews.

On the contrary Ryanair has done something this week that Michael O’Leary said would only happen when “hell freezes over” and recognised unions for the first time in the company’s history. This after their disastrous past few months where they lost hundreds of pilots to Norwegian, leaving the once arrogant O’Leary to practically get on his knees and beg his pilots to stay and work during their annual leave. Are these events at the one entity that was foreseen to keep down terms and conditions forever mean that the global pilot shortage might actually be beginning?

Rated De

20th Dec 2017, 20:07

Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them :ok:

How is the campus?

Perhaps it is simply a case that as Herb Kelleher said;

“A company is stronger if it is bound by love rather than by fear.”

Mr O'Leary may find disassembling the adversarial model of IR/HR quite a challenge, but that would be a good start.

Keg

21st Dec 2017, 05:28

There is no one in Qantas IR who was around in 2003. Not a soul. Heck, even Joyce himself wasn’t long in QF at that stage.

There is no way they set up QF NZ domestic as a back door way to introduce Jetconnect into the mainline domestic structure. They set it up hoping they could take on AirNZ. They discovered the brand didn’t work but the Jetstar brand might. When Qantas NZ started JQ wasn’t working in Aus let alone thinking about exporting it anywhere. When QF NZ didn’t work that’s when they decided to use it on the Tasman. Now that they want more utilisation out of the airframes they’ve decided to make this move. There are barely any managers that have beeen in QF in 2003 with the ability to influence those decisions.

What has happened is that Management have responded to different situations with a ‘what now’ attitude. The decisions out of those questions have been poor for mainline crew but it’s bordering on delusional to suggest that the people who burned billions on Jetstar HK, JQ Japan, JQ Pacific, JQ Asia, Red Q, and so on are suddenly Machiavellian geniuses when it comes to mainline IR? You’re giving Joyce et al that much credit? Really?

blow.n.gasket

21st Dec 2017, 08:28

Sorry , have to disagree with you on this Keg.
The Machiavellian architect behind most of Qantas’ industrial shenanigans for the past couple of decades would have to be Ian Oldmeadow .
He maybe on the so called outer now , but mark my words , I bet he still has IR’s ear in Qantas .

training wheels

21st Dec 2017, 10:19

Even SQ is taking DEFO ... pilot shortage is well and truely here
Pilots (http://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/gb/careers/cadet-pilots-career/)

PoppaJo

21st Dec 2017, 10:49

Vietnam are also feeling the pinch. J* Pacific is offering fast track upgrades for FOs in Oz should anyone be interested.

The SIA policy of not employing expats is well overdue considering a large portion of their low cost offshoot is crewed by non locals.

Rated De

21st Dec 2017, 22:44

Management put out a call on Sept. 13 offering pilots more money to work extra days, with management "not quite realising how serious it was," O'Leary told Reuters.

O'Leary made it Ryanair's trademark to treat pilots more like bus drivers than what he saw as the pampered rock stars of aviation's golden age.

What do you think is discussed at IATA management conferences? This IR model is a regular discussion workshop.

Australia is no different.

There is no one in Qantas IR who was around in 2003. Not a soul. Heck, even Joyce himself wasn’t long in QF at that stage.

That may be the case, but just because your management has an appalling execution track record (indeed the region is littered with Joyce disasters) it does not mean that the strategy was not well established.

Daylight Robbery

21st Dec 2017, 23:21

There is no one in Qantas IR who was around in 2003. Not a soul. Heck

The faces may have changed at QF, but heavy hitting consultants, Freehills and the like, have been used for a long time.

There has been an obsession with reducing pilot costs, which at mainline alone must be between $500 mil and a billion per year. They see it as the fat which still sits on the cost carcass. With game theory, long term planning and top law firms to implement (whom AIPA often struggles to match as they won't work for unions) they have achieved far past what they probably ever expected for IR in 2000. Only problem is, the pool of capable candidates to enter the industry dwindles year by year as the news seeps out about a modern career in aviation.

Blitzkrieger

22nd Dec 2017, 01:09

In the coming weeks, a group of my aviation colleagues will be voting on their EBA. A rather bad EBA at that. Many of the ones I speak to are not even slightly convinced that the carrot they are being offered is enough any more. Go back a number of years to the last EBA and the story was very different. It is heartening that, although a small group, they have turned a corner and are prepared to ask for their fair worth.

Stand firm my friends, the shiny things are there to blind, not light the way :ok:.

gulliBell

22nd Dec 2017, 11:35

...Stand firm my friends, the shiny things are there to blind, not light the way

Be heartened by the fact SYD>PER one-way economy class fare on VA earlier this week was $1,275 AUD. Ye ole kerosene canary was choc-a-block full as well. The in-flight roast chicken and potato was pretty good, but it should have been served on a gilded gold plate for that fare price instead of a cardboard box. Crikey, I could fly return to Beijing on CSN for less than $600. With that sort of seasonal revenue coming in you guys should be due your fair share, the cash in the kitty must be ample to pay for it.

CurtainTwitcher

22nd Dec 2017, 23:13

China buys flight schools amid pilot shortage
Exclusive

Andrew Burrell
The Australian
December 23-24 2017, page 1

Chinese companies are swooping
on Australian flight training
schools increasingly stricken by
skyrocketing costs and crippling
red tape, amid predictions that
the nation will be forced to import
scores of commercial pilots from
Asia and Africa in coming years.

The Weekend Australian has
spoken to several of the country’s
350 aviation training businesses
that say they are unprofitable and
are considering selling to the
Chinese. Scores of local firms
have folded in recent years and
several of the larger schools are
now foreign-owned.

China will need and estimated
110,000 new pilots by 2035 but
is relying on other countries for
most of its training because of its
heavy smog, military-controlled
airspace and lack of qualified
teachers who speak English

A federal government report this
week confirmed the local industry’s
drastic decline, showing the number
of general aviation flying hours fell
by 40 per cent -- from 500,000
hours a year to 300,000 hours a
year between 2010 and 2015.

The increasing foreign ownership
in the flight training industry --
particularly the concentration of
Chinese acquisitions-- is raising
concerns among senior security
experts.

Peter Jennings, the executive
director of the Australian Strategic
Policy Institute, said the
“aggregation effect” could be
of the same concern in flight
training as it had been to Scott
Morrison in other sectors.

“It may be acceptable to own
one or two flight training schools
” Mr Jennings said, but if the
Chinese acquired flight training
schools to the point where there
was a dependence on it “the
aggregation effect of that
could be negative from a
government perspective”.
Flying training is seen as vital
to allow Australia to keep up
with the increasing demand
for pilots, with predictions of
a major shortage in coming years.

The landmark study by the
Bureau of Infrastructure,
Transport and Regional Economics
also raised industry fears about
he cost of pilot and maintenance
training, soaring airport charges
and recent regulatory changes
that were “not supported by
adequate justification.”

Aircraft Owners and Pilots
Association chief executive
Ben Morgan said he believed
more than 50 per cent of all
flight training in Australian was
now being carried out by foreign
companies and most of them
were Chinese.

He said it was “realistic” to
predict the industry could be
entirely foreign owned in
the next 10 years. “The
Chinese are cleaning up,”
he said. “Australia is selling
out its flight training industry
to foreign interest.”

Chinese airlines have been
investing heavily in Australian
flight training in recent years.
In 2015, a China Eastern
Airlines subsidiary brought a 50
per cent stake in CAE’s Melbourne
aining school. Its rival, China
Southern Airlines, owns 50 per
cent of a West Australian academy.

One of the biggest regional schools,
Australian International Aviation
College in Port Macquarie is now
owned by Hainan Airlines after
the local operator ran into financial
trouble in 2014.

The Chinese sale was facilitated
by the federal government’s
Austrade agency. The business is
now planning an $18 million training
facility at Kempsey airport to train
Chinese students.

Dick Smith, a former chairman of
the Civil Aviation Safety Authority
, blamed the destruction of the
industry on the former Howard
government’s directive to CASA to
ignore costs in relation to air safety,
which he said had led to the adoption
of the world’s most expensive regulations.

“Australian companies are going
broke because of paperwork
and red tape,” he said. “Now
we have a shortage of pilots.
Does it matter that in five
years...we will have pilots
from developing countries--
from India, Indonesia and
China flying our airlines?”

Mr Smith said he was also
concerned that Australian
flight training companies were
unable to get approval from
China to train Chinese students
in the same way Chinese-run schools
do in Australia.

Mr Morgan, of AOPA, welcomed
the appointment this week of
Barnaby Joyce as Transport
Minister and called on him to urgently
address how the local flight training
industry could deliver crews for
Australian airlines rather than
relying on Asian and African pilots.

He said CASA should allow independent
flight instructors to be used by smaller
businesses, noting that 70 per cent of
training in the US was conducted
by independent instructors.

“If you are not an organisation
with a bucket of cash, there’s
no way you can get involved in flight
training” he said.

“We used to be a leader in flight
training but we have created an
expensive and cumbersome system.”

A CASA spokesman said the
concept of independent flight
instructors was raised during
consultations but was not widely
supported at this time.

“If the aviation community
believes the concept of independent
instructors needs to be looked at
again, CASA is willing to listen to
constructive suggestions,” he said.

Industry veteran John Douglas,
the former head of the Royal
Aero Club of WA, said conditions
were the worst he had seen in 50 years.

He said the number of training
hours at the club had fallen from
36,000 hours a year to 16,000
over the past two decades.

Mr Douglas slammed new CASA
requirements for schools to
spend money to gain new
certification for training.
“The cost of compliance is killing
the industry,” he said.

Bill Whitworth, the owner of
Whitworth Aviation at Bansktown
Airport, recently agreed to sell
his troubled business to a
Chinese company. “They want
to get a foothold here at
Bankstown Airport,” he said.
“They want to bring students
down and train them, starting
with 30 students.”

Another long-term operator at
Bankstown, Aminta Hennessy,
said businesses were also being
hurt by rising airport fees and charges.

She said she had been recently
approached by foreign companies
to sell.

The chief executive of Melbourne
Flight Training, Glen Buckley,
said he had received five offers
from Chinese companies to buy up
to 20 per cent of his business,
but he had so far resisted the temptation to sell.

ADDITIONAL REPORTING: SID MAHER

The Chinese are cleaning up (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/china-swoops-on-flight-schools-to-solve-pilot-shortage/news-story/804d8eeddc1b844874ada8e782b6a185) (Paywalled at The Australian)

Apologies for the formatting... best I could do with limited bbcode options.

edit: Report referenced in the article: General Aviation Study (https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2017/files/cr_001.pdf)

Rated De

22nd Dec 2017, 23:29

Industry veteran John Douglas,
the former head of the Royal
Aero Club of WA, said conditions
were the worst he had seen in 50 years.

He said the number of training
hours at the club had fallen from
36,000 hours a year to 16,000
over the past two decades.Like the ghost of decades gone by, despite those at the face of the shortage, the myth of Australian exceptionalism exists..

gulliBell

23rd Dec 2017, 00:22

Having just come out of 3 years as a trainer in China. The training pipeline there (that is, once the cadets finish their initial training outside China they come to us for type rating training on to their allocated fleet type), the system there is getting stressed. People are working longer and longer hours to achieve the business outcomes. The bottleneck will be in China. Whilst Chinese companies might have Australian flight training schools on their acquisition radar, the limiting factor will be the pilot throughput at the Chinese end. No point buying Australian flight schools and pumping out more CPL's if there in no spare capacity in China for making them airline useful.

wheels_down

23rd Dec 2017, 04:52

Cadets are not the answer to fixing the pilot shortage. Having spoken to a senior check captain recently he acknowledged the quality isn’t there compared to ex GA and his mob wouldn’t go all guns blazing with cadets because the training department couldn’t handle it.

So what’s the solution? Subsidising self funded CPL holders? My local club last year sold a 172 and made redundant an instructor to avoid the bank taking its assets.

Due to the fact that there is nobody self funding CPLs anymore would i be right in saying it’s now easier to get a job out there?

Rated De

23rd Dec 2017, 05:16

So what’s the solution? Subsidising self funded CPL holders? My local club last year sold a 172 and made redundant an instructor to avoid the bank taking its assets.

Due to the fact that there is nobody self funding CPLs anymore would i be right in saying it’s now easier to get a job out there? These are real issues.
Airlines have been consulted for a long time about the impending shortage. Unfortunately for all the paradigm of abundant supply meant any attempt to show the problem was laughed down. It was also readily evident that the apparatus set up and that included the recruiting, training, HR and IR model saw supply as a given.

Aging populations are all over the western hemisphere, the Second World War responsible for the single largest generation in history.

Just how does an airline change direction when their system cannot see the fundamental flaw in their model?

Of course there are airlines that have happy and loyal employees and readers of Pprune know that there were leaders that did things a different way. From Gordon Bethune to Herb Kelleher and closer to home Rob Fyfe airlines can control cost secure their revenue and also have happier employees. As Mr O'Leary is finding out supply is limited and money is not likely to fix their problems. Their business model needs to change, but ultimately will it? Just how an airline tackles declining supply and experience levels is going to be fascinating to watch.

For the incumbent airline CEO in Australia, as this thing bites it may well be important to remember that sincerity is very difficult to fake.

Australian airlines were smug in their own ignorance. With GA and the military, as well as the occasional shock keeping the supply of pilots nicely ahead of demand, the model they developed was designed to keep downward pressure on wages. It certainly worked.

Divisive, adversarial models may well have had their day, it will be brave CEOs that declare this and decide to unwind some of the more complex administrative empires their businesses possess.

73qanda

23rd Dec 2017, 05:46

With GA and the military, as well as the occasional shock keeping the supply of pilots nicely ahead of demand, the model they developed was designed to keep downward pressure on wages. It certainly worked.
I suspect you’re correct but has anyone got any data to back it up?
Eg, what was the ratio of Australian 737 Captain salary to average national wage in
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2017?
If anyone has been flying jets for 45 years can you give us some figures so we can google the relevant average salary?

t_cas

23rd Dec 2017, 08:06

The median price of a house circa 1978-86....?

Tankengine

23rd Dec 2017, 08:19

The median price of a house circa 1978-86....?

Not sure, but certainly some Second Officers bought Hunter’s Hill waterfront properties in late 60s, early 70s!

Jeffory

23rd Dec 2017, 08:55

Can anyone tell me how long MECIR and MCC been a prerequisite for airline applicants? I assume this wasn't a factor in days gone by.

For those that don't get given either of these through an employer I can see why people would be deterred. An extra $25-30k on top of the initial CPL for no real promise of a job. Offshore helicopter operators seem to be going down the same road too, except the IR is double the cost. Not worth the trouble really.

gulliBell

23rd Dec 2017, 12:53

..Cadets are not the answer to fixing the pilot shortage. Having spoken to a senior check captain recently he acknowledged the quality isn’t there compared to ex GA and his mob wouldn’t go all guns blazing with cadets because the training department couldn’t handle it...

Maybe, I don't know. But in the space I'm familiar with, cadets are the answer. Apply prudent candidate selection, then train them from zero to CPL. Once that is done put them through conversion training onto a fleet type. Then they play SO for a year or so to get into the swing of how it all works. If they're passing their sim checks and appear reasonably capable they get made FO. Only then do they first touch the flight controls with passengers on board. The quality is out there, you just need to identify it, and nurture it through the training pipeline. If the first time you see an airline FO candidate is early in a GA career, after they've paid for their own training, you don't really have a good handle on the quality and suitability of that person for the intended role. If you're hiring somebody off the street and training them from day 1 you can mold them the way you want, and cut them at any point if they're not making the grade. This is the way it works in China, it could be made to work elsewhere.

Keg

23rd Dec 2017, 15:58

This is the way it works in China, it could be made to work elsewhere.

It’s been shown to work in Australia. It worked in QF in the early 70s and they proved it again in the 90s. In the late 90s there were a host of LH F/Os in their mid to late 20s that were ex cadets.

*Lancer*

23rd Dec 2017, 20:37

LHFO in your mid to late twenties? How times have changed! :hmm:

I tend to think our training systems in Australia are robust enough for competent and appropriate pilot development as cadet entrants. It’s likely that cadet programs will continue to be part of the balance, but increasingly so overseas.

Rated De

23rd Dec 2017, 21:55

Maybe, I don't know. But in the space I'm familiar with, cadets are the answer. Apply prudent candidate selection, then train them from zero to CPL. Once that is done put them through conversion training onto a fleet type.

Not sure that airline managers accustomed to having excess supply of already qualified applicants will accept this.

Not sure a training system that has been pared back to absolute minimum can cope with less experience. It will require more sessions, not less and this is a problem for airline management.

In the case of a supply issue, whether for cultural or strategy issues, airlines that embrace the expense(or is it investment?) and decide that more resources, not less are needed will secure supply.

For airlines accustomed to an oversupply of qualified pilots, with ancillary systems like recruiting and HR operating on the same premise, it may be difficult to accept and ultimately change the entrenched model.

Blitzkrieger

23rd Dec 2017, 23:29

If an airlines response to an undersupply of pilots to a subcontractor is to place a secret unwritten ban on employing pilots from that subcontractor to fill positions in the parent airline, they have obviously not even started to get the picture. They cant see that the reason for the under supply in the first place is their choice to screw pilots down under a contract company. It's idiotic!

The only way to combat the staunch resistance to change is to stand firm and to gain perspective on your own worth. Pilots are pure and simply a profit centre, we make for our employers many times our own salary, year in, year out. They need us as much as we need them, the only difference is they have entire departments devoted to convincing you otherwise.

Slow down, think the deal through, find the loopholes and traps, then apply your value to that deal and you'll have your answer.

Merry Christmas all, may we be having a very different discussion in a years time! :D

gulliBell

23rd Dec 2017, 23:48

Our company was investing 40,000 hours per year on cadet basic flight training in Australia alone. The Chinese have a "can do" attitude, and the staff all have a loyalty to the company to the extent I haven't seen before in any other country. If they are asked to work extra hours they do it, if they have to come in on the weekend they do it, and generally the staff don't ask or expect anything in return. They are just happy to have a job.
Take a look at the South China Sea dispute between those several countries who have a claim on those shoals, reefs, islands and sea area. Every other country was "talk, talk, talk"; China went and did something about it. There is no way anybody is going to bump them off those islands now (one of our planes actually flew down there and landed as a PR promo). That's what I mean, and that same attitude applies to their pilot requirements. They throw money at the problem and take affirmative action to do what needs doing.
The HR Department for the training department I was working in has 2 people, and it's a huge operation that is putting through 1000+ pilots per year. There is also an IR Department and I never saw anyone from that section in 3 years. For them an "already qualified applicant" is anyone in their early to mid 20's, likely has completed a university degree, is medically fit, and has a desire for a career as a pilot. There are millions of people in China who meet those requirements, no shortage at all.

KRUSTY 34

24th Dec 2017, 03:17

Awesome gulliBell.

Problem solved! :ok:

Power

24th Dec 2017, 03:38

Sounds like we have a Chinese spy in here

Rated De

24th Dec 2017, 04:24

The Chinese have a "can do" attitude, and the staff all have a loyalty to the company to the extent I haven't seen before in any other country. If they are asked to work extra hours they do it, if they have to come in on the weekend they do it, and generally the staff don't ask or expect anything in return. They are just happy to have a job.Whilst nothing detracts from the reality that a system set up to deliver a throughput of pilots, 'can' deliver that output, entrenched attitudes, regulations and workplace regulations get in the way. Something not often observed in a one party state. The fact that most western economies, are for the most part, not centrally planned (indeed planned at all!) means western airlines are generally not an extension of the state.

Most airline executives would be very enthused to have staff who work every weekend, extra hours and not expect anything in return. Staff just happy to have a job is what Australian industry craves and the continued importation of labour under various visas appeases many industry groups! They spend their waking hours trying to 'offshore' any job or service not nailed down or fill it with temporary (cheaper) labour. Western airlines have been frustrated in their endeavours by pesky labour relations laws from developing a form of industrial servitude that resembles an environment where workers do as instructed with a 'joy' that the most ardent central planner would applaud.

Take a look at the South China Sea dispute between those several countries who have a claim on those shoals, reefs, islands and sea area. Every other country was "talk, talk, talk"; China went and did something about it. I am not sure airline training budgets extend to heavy machinery engineering nor armed flotillas. Nor am I sure that their knowledge of the law extends to sovereign territorial limits, freedom of navigation and nor would an airline executive contemplate establishing a 'base' were such efforts necessary.

Whilst it is admirable that some countries with a cohesive policy for aviation have demonstrated there are was to 'get things done' the separation of state and airline is such that a privatised airline in a western economy generally serves different masters than those from a centrally planned and governed one party state.

gulliBell

24th Dec 2017, 05:50

..Problem solved!

In some countries, yes; here, no. The problem isn't solved because there is no aviation CEO who can decree such a course of action, with appropriate budget, and make it happen. And the national culture to facilitate it doesn't exist anywhere near the same extent as elsewhere where cadet pilot programs do work. The easier solution was to leverage the political option and open the place up by way of a skilled migrant visa program. The downside is this will certainly restrict opportunities for those here trying to get their foot through the airline cockpit door after investing heavily in their own training.

KRUSTY 34

24th Dec 2017, 07:59

Sorry gulliBell, was my sarcasm a little too subtle for you? :)

gulliBell

24th Dec 2017, 08:53

Sorry gulliBell, was my sarcasm a little too subtle for you? :)

Nah, easy to pick...

cessnapete

24th Dec 2017, 09:36

Cadet programmes been used very successfully in UK for many years. Required as no large experienced GA or Military source available to the airlines.
Needs high quality selection and Flight Schools.

Following rigid selection criteria, 200+ hrs at flying training school, with CPL/IR and multi rating at end. ( ATPL exams passed and issue when hours acquired later)
In my UK airline cadets then went straight into RHS B737/A320/B757 after normal TR course.
RHS Base Training as required, followed by at least 50 route sectors with Training Capt. When released to normal 2 crew Line flying, rostered with Capts of at least a year experience for the first six months, on multi sector European routes.

Very successful and no flight safety issues. Many of the early cadets now retired or Capts on A380 and all wide body types.

plasticmerc

24th Dec 2017, 09:37

What gullibell is saying is more or less correct and in it's own weird and wonderful way the right way at the moment.

Throwing money at the problem!

- I don't see too many other countries setting up training schools in other countries to develop there up and comers,
- Pay expats such high rates to a/ fill in the numbers
b/ train and mentor their guys and girls.

Have you noticed how many new aircraft are on order around the world?

Has any one noticed airlines who normally don't have recruitment issues crying out for staff?

Things are changing and very quickly in terms of aviation.

in 5-10 years time it wont matter how many shiney new jets you have in your fleet or on order people will be saying how many are parked up.

I see airlines with hundreds of aircraft on order and I just sit and think yeah right-o-mate good luck with that.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Rated De

24th Dec 2017, 10:44

in 5-10 years time it wont matter how many shiney new jets you have in your fleet or on order people will be saying how many are parked up.As I repeatedly state, this is a structural shortage.
The airlines that fail to unwind their adversarial models will lose out.
Australian airlines have enjoyed unparalleled access to pilots who;

Had sufficient hours be they GA or military
Had the requisite ATPL
Had multi engine experience
Had Paid for it themselves (or the taxpayer did)

The last funded cadet program for Qantas was on the eve of privatisation.

How Qantas unwinds their adversarial employee interaction model is anyone's guess. Given the protagonists (IR/HR) have had the run of the place for decades it is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Chinese carriers, funded by their government are simply extending the one belt one road model into aviation.

What will be really amusing to watch is the way the shortage plays out through the subsidiary airlines. Clamping down on pilots leaving Qlink for Qantas may further accelerate localised shortage.
Actually 'investing' in providing pilots with training and a career path will cost airlines. This cost will be borne as the structures in place are unwound. Replaced with a tangible investment in pilot supply is smart business: Pilots are strategic assets (Apologies to Mr O'Leary, Clifford, Rupert et al) Get pilots to pay for parking, uniforms and even their own interviews is something Mr O'Leary loved and has been embraced by other carriers too. Unwinding it will only begin in earnest when revenues are suffering due lack of supply...

When HR is a hammer, then any staff problem is a nail!

pilotchute

24th Dec 2017, 22:06

Cessnapete,

The difference with cadet programmes in Europe is that they have experience doing it and the airlines provide the necessary resources for it. Apart from Jetstar nobody in Australia has a 0 to jet ab initio programme. They had awful problems with it at the start.

Australian operators just don't want to spend any money on training. Qlink went to the USA to try and get dash drivers because they thought they could get out of having to type rate people. They would also have instant command qualified FO's.

I laugh when the likes of Skippers and Corporate Air advertise for type rated pilots. How many out of work metro and dash drivers do they think are out there? Again just not wanting to invest in any training.

wheels_down

25th Dec 2017, 02:41

How many Jetstar cadets have since left? I know some who are now at Emirates. Usually these programs are meant to give the carrier some medium term job security.

Popgun

25th Dec 2017, 04:56

How many Jetstar cadets have since left? I know some who are now at Emirates. Usually these programs are meant to give the carrier some medium term job security.

A lot have left. (But there are many more where they came from!)

Once they have a bit of experience they are no different to any other pilot when it comes to being attracted to a job with better remuneration and/or conditions. They are almost always very young, with time on their side, to enable a move to a better position even if progression at the new carrier is slow.

Lots of ex-JQ cadets at many carriers including EK, QF and NZ. If Jetstar really wants to keep them for the long term then the conditions will need to improve (unlikely with inadequate pilot industrial cohesion) or they'll need to contract them in for a longer period.

PG

CurtainTwitcher

25th Dec 2017, 06:07

If Jetstar really wants to keep them for the long term then the conditions will need to improve (unlikely with inadequate pilot industrial cohesion) or they'll need to contract them in for a longer period.

What would be the mechanism to bind a cadet to any operator? The Jetstar Cadet Booklet (V4 (http://www.jetstar.com/au/en/careers/media/jetstar-careers/client/Cadetship-Program/Cadet-Pilot-Program-Booklet-V4.pdf)) is very clear on the funding, it is up to the cadet to self-fund along with the Federal governments FEE-HELP program. Jetstar doesn't appear to put anything at stake - it has no skin in the game.

Traditionally, the binding mechanisms have been bonding for type course along with the more subtle denial of ICUS time, therefore preventing ATPL qualification. Close to command upgrade time, ICUS is then allowed to be logged, thus allowing the necessary ATPL.

Without the operator actually signing a contract to fund part or all cadet training, the self-funded cadet is a free agent.

Log book time is solely & irrevocable the property of the pilot, independent of the operator. I believe this was a the logic behind the now defunct MPL licensing system, where logged time only had value within an MPL operator's check & training system as I understand it (corrections please), and was not readily transferable to another operator.

As to increasing T&C, with or without industrial cohesion, Ryanair have demonstrated that improvements will occur when there are significant flight cancellations. As they say in commodities, the solution to low prices is low prices! The market ultimately will adjust, although the price discovery efficiency of the pilot market is low as the market power has largely been with a small number of operators, compared to the large number of individual pilots.

I would expect, just like Ryanair that there will be a discontinuity, ie no change, then a sudden significant change in pay in a single move. Something along the lines of a loyalty or incentive bonus, conditional on an extended period of service. The underlying contract may not alter much as operators do not want to lock in large contract increase future liabilities.

ElZilcho

25th Dec 2017, 06:10

They are almost always very young, with time on their side, to enable a move to a better position even if progression at the new carrier is slow.

And there's the rub. I've bumped into a couple of ex J* Cadets in recent years. They're 10 years my junior, similar Jet experience (if not more) and in vastly better financial shape than I was at that age. Sure, they're missing a few thousand hours of GA and Turbo-Prop time, but at this level, no one gives 2 ****s about it. They have the freedom to go virtually anywhere in the world for another 5-10 years and still return home in their mid to early 30's. Why would they stay at J*?

Hate to admit it, but it does make me question my career to this point. Lots of great memories sure, but the future would be very different if I were 10 years younger with the same seniority number.

CurtainTwitcher

25th Dec 2017, 07:04

FWA Press Release: Jetstar fined over breaches of workplace laws (https://www.fairwork.gov.au/about-us/news-and-media-releases/2014-media-releases/february-2014/jetstar-cadets-penalty)

Jetstar fined over breaches of workplace laws
6 February 2014

Two Jetstar companies have today been fined a total of $90,000 for unlawfully making six cadet pilots responsible for training costs and making deductions from their wages, despite receiving advice the deductions contravened workplace laws.

Jetstar Group Pty Ltd and Jetstar Airways Pty Ltd have each been fined $45,000 in the Federal Court in Sydney after admitting they breached the Fair Work Act.

The penalties are the result of legal action by the Fair Work Ombudsman.

The six pilots were recruited between October, 2010 and January, 2011 and were employed on New Zealand individual contracts through a New Zealand-based Jetstar subsidiary while they underwent six months of training.

At the conclusion of the training, the cadet pilots’ employment was transferred to Australian entity Jetstar Group.

Justice Robert Buchanan found that Jetstar continued to pursue plans to recover training costs from the cadet pilots despite advice that this was unlawful under Australia’s Air Pilots Award 2010.

Jetstar deducted a total of $17,500 from the cadet pilots’ wages between June and September 2011 before the practice was ceased and the money was returned to them in November 2011, following a legal challenge by the Australian Federation of Air Pilots (AFAP).

Deductions were made from all six pilots’ wages, including one pilot who had refused to agree to the deductions.

Justice Buchanan said that there was a lack of evidence of contrition or remorse from Jetstar.

"The respondents used their vastly superior bargaining power to effectively brush aside any personal resistance by cadet pilots, not desisting until the AFAP stepped in," Justice Buchanan said.

"The conduct of Jetstar Group and Jetstar Airways was calculated solely by reference to their assessment of their own commercial interests and their determination that the cadet pilots should be ultimately responsible for the cost of their training.

Justice Buchanan said the companies "undertook their contravening conduct notwithstanding advice (the substance of which is now accepted) that what they were proposing to do, and did do, was contrary to the Award and the Fair Work Act."

Imposing penalties at 68 per cent of the available maximum, Justice Buchanan said, "I think it is appropriate to mark the Court’s disapproval of what was done".

"A penalty should be fixed, if possible, with a view to ensuring that the risk of punishment is not seen as an acceptable cost of doing business."

The Fair Work Ombudsman's separate legal proceedings against Jetstar Airways Pty Ltd, as well as Singapore company Valuair Limited and Thai company Tour East (T.E.T.) Limited are ongoing.

In these proceedings the Fair Work Ombudsman alleges that cabin crew employed by Valuair and Tour East (T.E.T.) to work on domestic flights for Jetstar were subject to Australian workplace laws.

These allegations are being contested by Valuair, Tour East (T.E.T.) and Jetstar Airways. A hearing is scheduled for April 7 in the Federal Court in Sydney.

Employers and employees seeking assistance should visit www.fairwork.gov.au or contact the Fair Work Infoline on 13 13 94. A free interpreter service is available by calling 13 14 50.

The Fair Work Ombudsman's website contains a range of tools and resources, including PayCheck Plus and an Award Finder, to assist employers calculate the correct wages and entitlements for employees.

Other website resources include fact sheets, templates for time-and-wages sheets and a range of Best Practice Guides.

An "Industries" section on the website provides extra, specialised information for employers and employees in a range of industries, including retail, horticulture, road transport, accommodation and hospitality, cleaning, clerical, vehicle, electrical, fast food, building and construction, hair and beauty, joinery, metal manufacturing, social and community services, plumbing and security.

Original judgment: Fair Work Ombudsman v Jetstar Airways Ltd [2014] FCA 33 (https://www.fairwork.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/760/fair-work-ombudsman-v-jetstar-airways-ltd-2014-fca33.pdf.aspx)

Rated De

25th Dec 2017, 07:54

"The conduct of Jetstar Group and Jetstar Airways was calculated solely by reference to their assessment of their own commercial interests and their determination that the cadet pilots should be ultimately responsible for the cost of their training.

It is the subjective determination of an airline that has to be shifted. The airline determines that the cadet pay, end of discussion.
As they say, everything is alright until it isn't. The practitioners have not yet accepted the shift in supply. Change will be forced when unable to attract suitable applicants over the business cycle (both up and down) In the interim denial and a continuance of current HR/IR practice is the order of the day.

Mr O'Leary gives ground only when necessary to address a specific concern, expect no less in Australia

gulliBell

25th Dec 2017, 09:16

If the Executives of the company are knowingly breaking the law in this regard they are not fit and proper persons for holding these positions and thus their employment should be terminated "for cause" by their Company Board. Change must come from the top. A $45,000 fine isn't even a tank of gas for one of their planes. Good on the AFAP for rolling them on this one.

KRUSTY 34

25th Dec 2017, 11:19

Well said gulliBell.

CurtainTwitcher

27th Dec 2017, 00:23

It's getting a lot more lucrative to become a pilot

By Marielle Segarra
December 26, 2017 | 9:30 AM

Zack Tusing is training to be a pilot. One of his favorite places to fly is a spot along the Hudson River, overlooking New York City. Sure, he says, it’s a little scary hovering next to skyscrapers and being suspended over water in a one engine Cessna.

"Other than that, it’s really cool," Tusing said. "Central Park is cool to see. Being right at the top of One World Trade Center is cool. You can see Yankee Stadium."

Tusing is 19, and he has been training to be a pilot since he was a toddler.

"When I was three or four, my dad would hook up, I think it was a Microsoft Flight Simulator 1995, on the computer, and I would just try to get the plane on the ground somewhere without crashing," he said.

When he took his first actual flying lesson at 13, the outlook for pilots wasn’t great. It was 2011, and there had been a decade of turmoil in the airline industry — with downturns after 9/11 and during the recession. About 10,000 pilots were furloughed.

Entry-level pilot salaries were about $22,000 a year on average, according to the aviation advisory firm FAPA. Meanwhile, training could cost five times that, says Wendy Beckman, who runs the aerospace department at Middle Tennessee State University.

"You heard stories of people on food stamps and living at home and sleeping in crew lounges," Beckman said.

Infinity Flight Group, a flight training school, opened a few years ago with a three-plane fleet. Now it has 25 planes and it's having trouble keeping up with demand.

Tusing didn’t want to give up his dream. In fall 2016, he enrolled in Penn State Abington’s business program, with plans to get his pilot’s license after graduation.

But there was a shift happening in the airline industry.

There’s a mandatory retirement age for pilots: 65. That time has come for a lot of them, says Gregory John, who runs Infinity Flight Group, the pilot training school Tusing attends.

"It's estimated [that in] the next 10 years, half of all pilots will be retiring from major airlines," John said.

The big airlines, like American and United, have hired more than 4,000 pilots this year — an eightfold increase from just five years ago, according to FAPA.

A lot of those pilots come from the regional airlines. That’s left the regionals with a pilot shortage. Last year, 35 percent of available pilot jobs at those airlines went unfilled, according to the Regional Airline Association. The regional airlines have had to up their game. They've more than doubled pilot starting pay, to almost $50,000 a year on average, according to FAPA. Regional airlines are also offering signing bonuses of up to $31,000, and they're helping to pay for flight training.

"They'll help pay for some of your flight training," John said. "They'll guarantee you a job."

Some are also relaxing their preference for a college degree. So in January, Zack Tusing dropped out of college to train as a pilot full time. Tusing has flown about 200 hours so far; he needs 1,500 to get hired at a commercial airline. He says it’ll probably cost him $80,000 all told. But he sees a real future as a pilot.

RELATED
Desperately need pilots? Try paying them more
7 tips for solving your airline customer service problems
Small airports are trying to cash in on big-city travelers

It's getting a lot more lucrative to become a pilot (https://www.marketplace.org/2017/12/26/business/its-getting-lot-more-lucrative-be-new-pilot)

Desperately need pilots? Try paying them more

By Gigi Douban
September 16, 2016 | 7:15 AM

Two American Airlines subsidiaries announced plans to boost the starting pay for regional pilots, in some cases increasing pay by 56 percent. On top of that, the regional carriers, PSA Airlines and Envoy Air, will offer bigger sign-on and retention bonuses, all in the hopes the move will ease a pilot shortage.

Why the shortage? It’s way harder than it used to be to become a regional pilot. And the pay is terrible.

"There are plenty of new-hire pilots at regional airlines who are eligible for public assistance, for food stamps for example," said Gregg Overman, communications director for the Allied Pilots Association. Some regional pilots, he said, get paid less than $18,000 a year. Hence, the shortage.

"All airlines are just having a hard time right now finding enough pilots to fly the smaller planes at the pay rates that they’ve been paying," Seth Kaplan, editor at Airline Weekly, said.

New pilots for Envoy and PSA can make $58,000 a year. Kaplan said the airlines had to pay more or cut regional flights — the flights that help fill the seats on big planes.

"You need to be able to get people from Omaha to Chicago, to fill that flight from Chicago to Tokyo," he said.

Desperately need pilots? Try paying them more (https://www.marketplace.org/2016/09/15/world/regional-pilots)

Pilot shortage grows
But while Hawaii service flourishes, less glamorous regional airline markets throughout the U.S. are likely to continue suffering in 2018 as a nationwide pilot shortage gets worse.

The shortage has been a key factor in 20 U.S. airports losing commercial air service since 2013. Another 26 airports have lost at least 75% of departures, according to the Regional Airlines Association.

The shortage, which transportation economist Dan Akins said numbered 500 pilots in 2017, has also led to closures, bankruptcies and operational problems for regional airlines. In the most recent prominent example, Alaska Airlines’ regional subsidiary, Horizon, was forced to reduce its flight schedule from September through at least January. In September, Horizon canceled a whopping 6.5% of its flights.

With retirements at major U.S. airlines ramping up, Akins projects that the U.S. commercial airline industry will require 2,000 more pilots than will be available in 2018.

“Ramifications will be further reduction of regional operations, reduction or elimination in service to an increasing number of smaller communities, more carrier failures/bankruptcies, pressure on military to retain existing pilots for national defense and perhaps the start of airline funding of pilot training,” Akins said.

The shortage has led to various proposals in recent months to increase the legal avenues for aspiring pilots to obtain a commercial license with less than the required 1,500 hours of flight time.

Akins said that even if such changes are made, the shortage is sure to persist. “The lag time to train pilots is years,” he said.
Airlines: What the year ahead holds for the industry (http://www.travelweekly.com/Preview2018/Airlines)

Narnia Bound

27th Dec 2017, 02:35

The flood gates are well and truly open here (US). There are many guys and girls from my company getting job offers from 2 or even majors within a month. All straight to the RHS of E190 or bigger. If they go FEDEX or UPS, more than 50% chance of RHS wide body. They're now in a position where they can pick which company's they wish to work for and then see which offers the best basing and/or platform for their needs. Most commute from their chosen "home" to domicile without any issues. Not bad considering the dire situation not even 10 years ago. Would love to jump on the bandwagon myself but want to head back home to Oz, so waiting patiently for things to (hopefully) continue to pick up.

bafanguy

27th Dec 2017, 18:39

“ Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will allow foreign pilots to enter Australia on a two-year working visa to curb a shortage. The Australian reports a lack of pilots has already grounded planes and forced flight cancellations.“

Is there yet any data showing how many foreign pilots have been issued visas to fly in Australia ?

Rated De

27th Dec 2017, 21:17

“ Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will allow foreign pilots to enter Australia on a two-year working visa to curb a shortage. The Australian reports a lack of pilots has already grounded planes and forced flight cancellations.“

Of course it is completely predictable. That is why despite the real estate treasurer Morrison, or the other side claiming they want wage growth, they actually do not.
Their 'sponsors' from the business council or any other employer lobby group won't allow wage growth...

Just remember demographics is driving the shortage.
Is it really surprising that a regional airline with bases in Sydney struggles for 'talent' with the money they offer?

Tommy Bahama

27th Dec 2017, 21:38

havick

27th Dec 2017, 21:43

Instead of making the industry more attractive with better pay and conditions we choose to allow foreigners to work in this country.

We deserve everything we get as an industry if we allow this to happen.

Good luck with your standard of living for those joining now.

Serious question here, with shortages worldwide, who will actually bother coming to Australia that actually meets the requirements?

Rated De

27th Dec 2017, 21:51

Serious question here, with shortages worldwide, who will actually bother coming to Australia that actually meets the requirements?

That is EXACTLY the point.

There are serious shortages globally.

Imagine living in Sydney Australia, paid an 'average' wage with the second most expensive housing in the world?

It is precisely as predicted, airlines will lobby to allow 'skilled shortage'

The political process is so corrupt, that they will pander to airlines, however there is a global, demographic and very structural shortage.

Be patient all, airline managers are on the wrong side of this one!

framer

27th Dec 2017, 22:04

Plenty of people will put up with the price of housing in Sydney to get their wives and kids into a country where they are safer than their current location.

Aloha_KSA

27th Dec 2017, 22:29

First off, I wouldn't lose any sleep over foreign pilots in Oz. As there is a shortage of pilots almost everywhere else in the world, too, I wouldn't expect a stampede, at most a trickle. Secondly, there are hundreds, if not thousands of Oz pilots flying all over the world. A bit of reciprocation is fair play, and think about what would happen here if they all came back. There would be no jobs for new hires for years... Piloting is an international career and protectionism would not be beneficial...

BUT

The shortage in OZ is not just a shortage of pilots (if it is that, at all). It is a shortage of training infrastructure. This may be a worldwide phenomenon, in fact. Airlines buy planes by the dozen, but the number of simulators does not keep pace. For example, Cobham (Qantaslink) operates the B717. They have 20 aircraft and exactly one simulator in Australia ... that is shared with Hawaiian Airlines. (Here is a list of the sims in Oz: https://www.casa.gov.au/licences-and-certification/standard-page/flight-simulators-and-training-devices )
Typing a pilot takes days or even weeks of sim time in 4 hour blocks. Meanwhile, the airline must do recurrent training for its current pilots, as well as upgrades. Each sim session requires a training captain and possibly a check captain. So there is a big -- non-revenue generating -- resource commitment.

From a casual scan of the web, it looks like Qantaslink's Dash-8 operation has 31 Q-400's, and 19 DHC-8-200/300s and about 380 pilots. That's less than 5 crews per plane, which is pretty thin. There only appears to be one Q-400 sim facility for those 31 planes and almost 400 pilots. While the check and training pilots are spending weeks in that facility training new hires, they are not available for recurrent training, upgrade training, or flying the line, so I'm guessing they are down to about 4 crews per plane who are actually available to fly at any given time. Perhaps someone on the inside there could clarify. To me it looks like a skeleton crew for an RPT op.

The training and check captains also happen to be prime targets for recruitment by other airlines. When they pull chocks the airline's training department resources are spread even thinner.

Edit: My bet would be that they would be looking for training captains to come and help with the training surge, not entry level FO's or even plain vanilla line captains. Like this job, for example: https://qantas.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Qantas_Careers/job/Mascot-Sydney/Simulator-Instructor_R36134-1

Hiring foreign pilots in Oz on temporary work visas who are already rated in the aircraft would save weeks of sim time and months of training costs. Just a ride or two for currency and type conversion, then line training.

So, what's an aspiring CPL pilot with resumé in hand to do, eh?

Well... Taking Qantaslink and their DHC-8s as an example ... if I was a young buck looking to get a leg up in OZ, I would be looking at Spice Jet (Careers | SpiceJet Airlines (http://spicejet.com/Careers.aspx)), JetStar NZ (https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/careers/pilots-jobs/dch-8-q300-first-officers-new-zealand/1357905), Air NZ (https://careers.airnz.co.nz/jobdetails/ajid/gRbg9/First-Officer-Air-New-Zealand-Regional-Airlines,000007) or some other foreign carrier who operates the same type as my target Oz carrier. You rock up typed and experienced on Mascot's doorstep, with international experience and a copy of your training file and they will be hard-pressed not to hire you. ... closer to home: Skippers (https://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/pilot-job/3707/ENDORSED%20FLIGHT%20CREW) .

Rated De

27th Dec 2017, 22:39

As there is a shortage of pilots almost everywhere else in the world, too, I wouldn't expect a stampede, at most a trickle.More succinct than I could put it!
How long will it provide 'talent'

It is a predictable response from a system that always thought globalisation works one way:Import more labour to keep oversupply. This will keep wages pressure down and has been a neo-classical response for decades in Australia.

The problem for the recruitment, training and management of airlines is two fold:

Supply is globalised both ways...
Supply is short.

If the traditional supply is running low, it would probably follow that the traditional feeder routes (GA, Military and regionals) are low too.

The model they run has never encountered more than a cyclical shortage. This is the fundamental difference. They haven't seen it coming because the whole thing is set up on the underlying assumption of unlimited supply.

Piloting is an international career and protectionism would not be beneficial...

The best way to protect a strategic asset (HR take an oath never to call any labour group that :D) is terms and conditions.

The law of economics is that supply will follow demand signalling. A market with insufficient supply will eventually raise the price on offer to attract that supply.

Australia is not there yet, but they will have to adjust and it isn't downwards...
Amusing to watch O'Leary grapple with his fatally flawed model!
Is amusing to watch Australia start to wake...

Capn Bloggs

27th Dec 2017, 22:59

We deserve everything we get as an industry if we allow this to happen.

Good luck with your standard of living for those joining now.
Just who are you referring to as "industry"? If you're referring to the employers, of course they "will allow it to happen".

If you are referring to the industry's pilots, you have no idea, and thanks for the "support". :cool:

Angle of Attack

27th Dec 2017, 23:14

There’s a puff of dust over the horizon Dutton, that was the horse that bolted about a year ago, this is now a massive structural shortage and there’s only one way it will be fixed....show me the money!

gulliBell

27th Dec 2017, 23:26

Many of the Cathay Pacific pilot group are highly disgruntled with their lot in life in Hong Kong at the moment, the airline has been tightening the thumb screws on them rather maliciously for years. All to do with CX management disasters with their fuel hedging gamble which they need to recoup from the pilots salary budget, but that's another story. The solution to the pilot shortage in Australia is simple, the Australian airlines should just offer the CX pilots the same money they are on in Hong Kong. Many of those are Aussies anyway, no need for a 457. Cathay Pacific would be happy to offload all those expensive expatriate pilots and replace them with cheap Asian pilots. The Asian carriers would be forced to up their own training program to cover their losses to CX; heck, change a few things at CASA and they might even send their cadets to Australia to do flight training. It's a win win for both the Australian Airline industry who get access to a large group of highly experienced and well trained pilots, and a win for GA flight training industry who pick up contracts or get a good price for selling their business to foreign interests.

ViPER_81

27th Dec 2017, 23:43

So, what's an aspiring CPL pilot with resumé in hand to do, eh?

Well... Taking Qantaslink and their DHC-8s as an example ... if I was a young buck looking to get a leg up in OZ, I would be looking at Spice Jet (Careers | SpiceJet Airlines (http://spicejet.com/Careers.aspx)), JetStar NZ (https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/careers/pilots-jobs/dch-8-q300-first-officers-new-zealand/1357905), Air NZ (https://careers.airnz.co.nz/jobdetails/ajid/gRbg9/First-Officer-Air-New-Zealand-Regional-Airlines,000007) or some other foreign carrier who operates the same type as my target Oz carrier. You rock up typed and experienced on Mascot's doorstep, with international experience and a copy of your training file and they will be hard-pressed not to hire you. ... closer to home: Skippers (https://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/pilot-job/3707/ENDORSED%20FLIGHT%20CREW) .

But those jobs require experience and/or multi time too? How does one get the multi time in the first place in Australia GA market? Is there enough low end multi jobs for the fresh CPL's to get the multi time to make that jump?

Brakerider

27th Dec 2017, 23:56

I believe New hire Qantaslink pilots are required to complete the endorsement syllabus regardless of whether or not they hold a Dash 8 endo

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 00:12

But those jobs require experience and/or multi time too? How does one get the multi time in the first place in Australia GA market? Is there enough low end multi jobs for the fresh CPL's to get the multi time to make that jump?

Another totally bollocks requirement. The China Southern cadet pilots, whilst they do some twin and jet time as part of their basic training, their first job is on an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737. Train them properly and they can do the job. Why should it be any different here?

Going Nowhere

28th Dec 2017, 00:28

I believe New hire Qantaslink pilots are required to complete the endorsement syllabus regardless of whether or not they hold a Dash 8 endo

Correct,

They get a reduced line training period of 75 hrs vs 100, but 99% of the groundschool and sim is the same.

logansi

28th Dec 2017, 00:37

Another totally bollocks requirement. The China Southern cadet pilots, whilst they do some twin and jet time as part of their basic training, their first job is on an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737. Train them properly and they can do the job. Why should it be any different here?

But they do......

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 01:05

But they do......

Because the Australian Government is too gutless to tell them to spend the money on training locals to do the job as a condition of them bringing in foreigners to do the job. It's the Government the Australian people voted for, so those affected by it just need to suck it up. Or vote for the other mob next time. That is how a democracy works. Obviously things don't work like that in China, things just work. And for the record I prefer democracy, and the fact that our Army doesn't bayonet its citizens engaged in peaceful protest.

Centaurus

28th Dec 2017, 01:07

Train them properly and they can do the job

The problem remains; and that is the ethnic culture of their pilots. No need to elaborate because if you are not aware of the problem in terms of flight safety, then you have your head firmly in the sand:sad:

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 01:15

..No need to elaborate because if you are not aware of the problem in terms of flight safety..

I think safety is improving with these Chinese cadet pilots doing their training in an English speaking country...they arrive on the course with reasonable English, and that improves throughout their training. When they get in the cockpit of a passenger jet operating on International routes their comprehension of English is much better than the older generation Captains, and that makes it a safer crew when they understand what ATC and other occupants of the airspace are saying.

Dexta

28th Dec 2017, 02:09

It's the Government the Australian people voted for, so those affected by it just need to suck it up. Or vote for the other mob next time. That is how a democracy works.

Problem is Australia is not a democracy, our vote doesn't necessarily go to the candidate we voted for. Background deals for preferences can mean the the party with the most primary votes doesn't guarantee a win. And if a party who did receive the most primary votes wins they may not have enough seats for a majority, or have a hostile senate - so all we get is either a government that can't do anything because it is blocked by the opposition or is tied to deals done to win seats from independents. So I won't "just suck it up" until at least our pointless non-democratic system changes for the better.
P.S. Democracy as a system of government is not very good anyway, the ancient greeks tried it for 70 years before realising it was a race to the bottom and various other civilisations have tinkered with it over the centuries trying to get it right. With everyone having the vote, once you get a population with 50% on some form of welfare which ever party wants to get in will give that population what they want hence a race to the bottom where those not on welfare are punished financially and either leave the country or go on welfare.

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 02:15

...With everyone having the vote, once you get a population with 50% on some form of welfare which ever party wants to get in will give that population what they want hence a race to the bottom where those not on welfare are punished financially and either leave the country or go on welfare.

My colleagues in China were just stunned when I tried to explain to them what my Medicare card was for. And equally stunned at the generosity of our welfare system. Getting paid by the government to stay home and not work or to have babies or to subsidize child minding etc etc was all totally bamboozelling for them. They are used to the concept if you don't work you don't eat.

Rated De

28th Dec 2017, 03:01

If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal...

-Anon

Naturally there is no shortage in Australia!

Let us see the posturing of major player in this:

Qantas announces Jetconnect to be rolled into Australian network, on existing terms and conditions
Subsidiary airline to get A320

HR/IR then go on well earned leave.

Almost amazingly;

Flight cancellations from Sydney to Canberra among worst in the country - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-27/flight-cancellations-from-sydney-to-canberra-among-worst/9286828)

With the unions on leave too, incredibly Dutton announces;

No cookies | NT News (http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/national/home-affairs-minister-peter-dutton-will-allow-foreign-pilots-to-enter-australia-on-a-twoyear-working-visa-to-curb-a-shortage-the-australian-reports-a-lack-of-pilots-has-already-grounded-planes-and-forced-flight-cancellations/video/30aeea1825d83836c400aedcc64df0fb)

Wake up, you are again being played.
Panic a few pilots and open the contract 'negotiation'.

Wash, rinse and repeat! :D

ExtraShot

28th Dec 2017, 03:10

Or vote for the other mob next time

I’m no apologist for the current lot of do-nothing no hopers and without any intention of staring a left vs right argument, but the other mob had a go and were no better, in fact, arguably they were far worse. Gillard and her minions (Shorten, Plibersek, Wong, Bowen, et al; largely all still the same mob by the way), had 457 visas being used to import Fast Food workers, and an immigration program that exploded in Numbers keeping wages low and GDP per capita increases far lower than they otherwise could have been (initially thanks to Howard, then expanded massively by Rudd, and not reigned in since). If they were truly the workers friend, they’d have invested massively in reducing skills shorages (tafe, trades, etc) and focused on increasing productivity and commensurate wage increases of the population that was already here, while returning immigration to long term averages (around 1/3 of the current level) and ensuring 457 visas were only permitted to be used in conjunction with efforts to address supply shortages.

Voting for either major party will change nothing. Both will keep us plundering along a path of the mass immigration Ponzi scheme, and lack of investment and reform in the actual causes of current issues such as the one being “addressed” by Mr Dutton today.

The way I see it, the only parties that seem to want to address some or all of the larger issues pertaining to this, are the nationalist or protectionist types (One Nation / Australian Conservatives / Nxt) or the Pragmatists (Sustainable Australia)...

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 03:23

I could fix the problem with a lazy $500 million. That's basically all it needed for China to secure their future pilot requirements. We spend that about every 6 months keeping boat people out of our country, but fed, clothed and medicated in another country. Needless to say China doesn't have much of a boat people or immigration problem, little wonder they could afford investing in their pilot supply needs.

maggot

28th Dec 2017, 03:45

ExtraShot

28th Dec 2017, 03:49

I could fix the problem with a lazy $500 million

Possibly. However, That brings us to the old chestnut that Dick Smith has mentioned already, why can’t anyone in Australia do it?

Now, the cynic in me reckons that CASA would see it as the purpose of their existence to take every one of those $500 million dollars off you somehow. Preferably before a pre start checklist was even commenced.

However, If the pilot shortage is so acute it necessitates work visas, then starting up a high quality flying training organisation in Australia should be one of the most lucrative investment desicions an individual (or company for that matter), could make in the current environment! That’s before you even take on contracts to train pilots for foreign airlines.

Why isn’t it, and why aren’t we (collectively as Unions, pilot / aviation organizations), doing anything to change it?

An entire industry is dying, in a country that has the weather and empty skies that should see it flourish, and a supposedly economically competent (yeah right) government is letting it happen!

gulliBell

28th Dec 2017, 04:12

Because there are too many self-interest groups who have their own social and political agenda for whatever nefarious reasons rather than a collective effort and all pulling together in the same direction in the national interest. It could be done. Just hire a recently retired Army General, give him the money and the authority and it will happen. Make each 457 pilot visa $100,000 and channel that money into the training of locals to do the job. As a nation we will have to sacrifice those insane $29 and $69 airfares seen so often being advertised by Airlines and be prepared to pay more sensible airfares that will support the training of locals to fly the planes.

And if I can reflect on my experience working in the China pilot training pipeline for 3 years. I only ever saw one document or regulatory reference with a CAAC logo on it, and that was the Training Approval certificate mounted in a prominent position of the 2nd floor of Training Department. How many documents with a CASA logo on it does an individual need to navigate before they get a CPL?

Dark Knight

28th Dec 2017, 04:57

The subject has covered virtually all which needing to be discussed and said; whilst all have been prattling on Industry Management has been seriously lobbying, negotiating with Government to circumvent due process to allow the use of foreigners to take Australian Jobs.

Little mention will have been made of industry failure to ensure sufficient Australian pilots have been trained or of the abysmal failure of CASA’s role ensuring a viable aviation industry able to support a sustainable training system.

Nor will any airline operator management mention the looming shortage is not something which just happened but has been known and forecast for ten (10) years or more,

The question now remaining is what are pilot s going to do about this?

Airbus:
https://www.pilotcareernews.com/airbus-first-global-forecast-predicts-560000-new-pilots-by-2035/

In its first Global Services Forecast, Airbus has predicted that the number of new pilots needed by the year 2035 will top 560,000.

The report shares that the total number of active pilots needed by the year 2035, along with the need to replace flight-crew who retire during the next 20 years, will result in the need to train as many as 560,000 new pilots over this period. In terms of technical staff needed, the Airbus GSF predicts a requirement to train approximately 540,000 new technicians.

Boeing 2016 Pilot & Technician Outlook:
www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf

New Pilots required 2016-2035 = 617,000

“This is fundamentally different than anything you have seen in history. This is a strong long-term growth market.”
- Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing

Refer Post 103 (Tuck Mach) 10th Dec 2016 with comments + Posts 109, 113, and definitely post 127/148 &149.
Post 155:
Much of that which is written here is correct as is the thoughts espoused by Tuck Mach about the history.

Particularly
Quote:
Employers will keep trying, sparing no expense not to raise terms and conditions which is why pilots (and others within the aviation industry) need to get the pen out, the phones ringing berating your local MP and Senators.

If we do not no one else will but the employers will continue to circumvent, abuse and manipulate the rules/system any way they can for THEIR, and ONLY THEIR benefit!

The AFAP are well and truly aware what is going on however, write ring or email the President, the Executive Director, your local council members today, not tomorrow, TODAY! (or ring, write of call whatever organisation/Union you choose to have representing You)

President AFAP: CAPTAIN DAVID BOOTH 03 9928 5737
Executive Director: SIMON LUTTON 03 9928 5737
Email: [email protected]
AFAP: https://www.afap.org.au/contact

Equally, get on the phone, lift your pen or email your local MP and all Your State Senators. That is your members of YOUR Parliament

The only people who will help you are yourselves and it is YOUR Jobs, YOUR Future!

PPrune Comments, Dinner table or Bar Oratory whilst highly entertaining achieves little!

Rated De

28th Dec 2017, 10:08

whilst all have been prattling on Industry Management has been seriously lobbying, negotiating with Government to circumvent due process to allow the use of foreigners to take Australian Jobs.It is a done deal, as some have postulated the representative bodies are caught flat footed, this was making the rounds a few months ago. Classic message management in the lull between Christmas and New Year...

Do not think for one minute labour importation is confined to 7 Eleven. Both sides of parliament want continued immigration running at 2.5 times historical averages to continue to 'growth in GDP narrative'. They will never focus on falling GDP per capita.

Welcome to the us and them world, it is a small club and we are not in it....

It matters little however as this move only actually generates a solution if supply exceeds demand. It does not!

BalusKaptan

28th Dec 2017, 17:47

Gullibell stated; -
"they arrive on the course with reasonable English, and that improves throughout their training. When they get in the cockpit of a passenger jet operating on International routes their comprehension of English is much better than the older generation Captains, and that makes it a safer crew when they understand what ATC and other occupants of the airspace are saying."

Good Grief!!!!!
You sure about that!!
For what it is worth I've been doing long haul international for more than a quarter of a century and that is NOT what is happening. The standard of english from countries where english is the second or more distant language is deteriorating rapidly. Controllers constantly correcting pilot read backs but still getting incorrect replies. An inordinate amount of time spent by controllers ensuring said pilots read back correctly.
In parts of the world where english is not their first language many incorrect read backs are just ignored by ATC and chaos ensues on a regular basis as aircraft and their pilots do what they would like to think they are cleared for but haven't been actually cleared for. Yet it is so obvious what is happening, I can say to the other crew members 'they didn't read that back correctly and ATC hasn't corrected them", this will cause at best consternation and at worst an incident or accident, and thats exactly what happens.

hoss

28th Dec 2017, 19:35

Sportsbet are down to $1.10 on a hull loss in the next 18 months.

Congratulations, to the winners who bet Globalisation and Australian Aviation would collide before 31/12/17, $4.57!

knobbycobby

28th Dec 2017, 21:05

Whilst I’m opposed to 457 visas the government has risked a significant backlash
Due to what must be an extreme SHORTAGE.
As others have said ad nauseam. But what many have failed to understand is that
Despite visas there is a GLOBAL shortage.
It’s simple supply and demand. The overpaid multi million dollar morons in management have been used to pilots queuing up en masse to fly.
Due to both arrogance and ineptitude they have failed to see that the youth of today are not choosing to learn to fly. Why?
High costs to train and management have created poorly paid subsidiaries that make it even less atttractive. Traditional jobs have become more flexible, higher paid and more desirable. It’s just not a cool Job anymore.
Working 5 to 6 early starts of day returns with no overnights and ****ty pay is not what people aspire too. Yes you may get to a mainline carrier but the odds are poor. The airlines have created this problem.
I personally don’t blame the younger generation. In fact I discourage any youngster to fly unless he or she fancies working very hard for very little money.
That’s the sad reality for most learner pilots.
But the fact remains that a mass of retirements are coming globally in a large chunk. It will be hard enough for the legacy carriers.
All a 457 Visa does is plug a hole in a wall for a short period of time.
Market forces and supply and demand ultimately prevail.
The irony is a non interventionist Liberal Government is using poor policy to stop market forces.
Won’t work forever.

Kraus

29th Dec 2017, 01:06

I certainly accept that there is an impending shortage of pilots. As for Australian pilots, there's a shirt load of them, just not in Australia. You can direct blame to Dixon's etc and you'd probably be right. How many CX pilots started out on the dash 8 in Australia? Obviously the bottom feeders are going to feel the shortage first and I assume that's happening now. Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.

Talktotopper

29th Dec 2017, 04:37

What chance for opportunities would a Canadian regional pilot with 1500 hrs and an ATPL have down under?

Rated De

29th Dec 2017, 09:29

Obviously the bottom feeders are going to feel the shortage first and I assume that's happening now. Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.

An astute observation.

Clearly airline management is panicked.
They know the shortage is not cyclical!

bafanguy

29th Dec 2017, 12:47

Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.

Kraus,

If only it were that easy to become bait for a US legacy.

havick

29th Dec 2017, 13:03

redsnail

29th Dec 2017, 15:14

I can't see many experienced pilots in Europe heading to Australia for a 2 year visa.
A few colleagues have asked about what's going on, after filling them in, they said it wasn't worth the effort.

liftman

29th Dec 2017, 18:49

Hi All,

44 years old, EAsa ATP 2000TT 1500 jet Airbus rated no time on it.
Several aeronautical experience.

Suitable companies to apply for?

Brakerider

29th Dec 2017, 19:58

Hi All,

44 years old, EAsa ATP 2000TT 1500 jet Airbus rated no time on it.
Several aeronautical experience.

Suitable companies to apply for?

Realistically, none. There is no shortage of people with your qualifications.

cLeArIcE

29th Dec 2017, 23:31

At my current employer, every second Aussie I meet is an ex Qlink hold filer. If Qlink gave them start dates within a reasonable time frame or, at least been forthcoming with information and a little more open I guarantee most of them would be at Qlink. But they are not. Instead they are building jet time in the USA.

So..How about you don't leave people sitting on a hold file for 12-18 months with little/ no communication. These boys and girls have done everything asked of them through the selection process yet, you treat them with such disrespect. Pilots with GA experience sit on the hold file whilst you give UNSW cadets start dates.

They can either sit and wait for the chance to fly the space shuttle Q400 (knowing that they have a 1 in 1000 chance of ever getting into mainline) or, they can choose to go down a different path and get some jet experience. HMMMM yeh I wonder why they chose the USA. :ugh:

KRUSTY 34

30th Dec 2017, 02:25

A former COO remarked to me a decade ago, “Don’t worry Krusty, we’ll always be able to get pilots”. While the frenzy of the pre GFC was sharp and relatively short, it led to in some instances, an almost 50% cancellation rate at the airline! Even back then however, the long term writing was on the wall.

This time it is deeper and more profound than a mere expansion at the “Majors”, and It will take a generation or more to put right. Asuming of course the Numptys looking at the light in the tunnel, have even the first clue as to what’s coming at them?

I for one won’t be holding my breath.

Aloha_KSA

30th Dec 2017, 03:11

The lesson from Horizon Air (https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/horizon-air-cutting-hundreds-of-flights-this-summer-due-to-pilot-shortage/) and Ryan air (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ryanair-pilots-insight/three-months-that-shook-ryanair-how-cancellations-sparked-a-pilot-revolt-idUSKBN1EE2D1) is that some airlines' HR departments are stubbornly short-sighted. It appears they would cut off their noses to spite their faces. Some airlines can plan their staffing properly, and some can't. I would rather work for the first bunch. Poor planning correlates directly to poor IR and management indifference to the humans who make up their Human Resources. If they want to run their sh*tty airlines out of business with poor planning, I'm happy to help by not sending in a rezzie.

gulliBell

30th Dec 2017, 06:51

I can't see many experienced pilots in Europe heading to Australia for a 2 year visa.
A few colleagues have asked about what's going on, after filling them in, they said it wasn't worth the effort.

Nah, they are just scared of all the various spiders and snakes and crocodiles and sharks and jellyfish and drop bears etc etc that can kill them. Everything else down under is great and worth the adventure. So many Europeans there already, they'll feel right at home. The skies are reasonably safe, just be careful where you sit or swim.

Rated De

2nd Jan 2018, 18:48

Chinese airlines are poaching *experienced Australian pilots by offering more than $750,000 a year, leading to concerns pilot shortages may spread from *regional Australia to major routes.

Combined with a decline in Australian pilot training, the *lucrative Chinese contracts have prompted some pilots to warn of potential shortages of major airline captains amid a developing global shortage.

“They are talking about 737 training captains earning *upwards of $US600,000 ($769,000) tax-free and that’s going to be difficult even for the major Australian airlines to cope with,” It was only a few months ago, that this shortage was dismissed as yet another case of Australian exceptionalism. (Australia is not different)

Airlines have used adversarial IR driving conditions (not just salary) to the point where rational people look elsewhere.
Gutting GA when it suited them and allowing the taxpayer through the military to foot the bill for pilot training they proceeded as though supply was unlimited. It isn't. Naturally the state of aviation as an industry and a career is a multi faceted problem, with many competing parts.

The fact remains that the shortage is real, it is not cyclical and short term remedies may protect next year's bonus, but the shortage will continue to bite.

With employers in the western hemisphere used to getting their way with 'outcomes' and bargaining/negotiation Australian pilots may be in for a wild ride!

If I were sitting there in bulls&it castle wondering how to address this problem I would do exactly as the major employer has done:

Try to integrate foreign pilots into Australian domestic flying-thus establishing precedent
Introduce 'jets' to a subsidiary- The fear factor
Quietly lobby to improve supply-457 Visa
Continue with Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

It is not beyond the realms that regional airline networks are simply unable to be crewed.

Would it be pertinent for airlines recognising such a problem to lobby Oberfuhrer Dutton to place airline flights on the essential services, you know 'national interest' list thereby stopping pilots, cabin crew and engineers from allowing a shortage of crew to disrupt the 'vital air bridges'?

Whilst there is mere postulation, it is relevant as the airlines lobbied quietly for a period of time, with the 457 announcement made in the quietest media period; that between Christmas and New Year. It would appear that all major unions, despite a supposed lobbying presence in Canberra did not see this one coming.