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ORAC
22nd Sep 2016, 20:12
To see the blistering pace of change, go to the movies - CapX (http://capx.co/recent-films-remind-us-of-the-blistering-pace-of-change/)

http://28oa9i1t08037ue3m1l0i861.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Projections.png

Mechta
22nd Sep 2016, 21:47
Progress is patchy. Electronic goods evolve rapidly, whilst cars do in some aspects (21st century engine management on what is basically an 1880s engine). Houses, in the UK anyway, seem to be stuck in last century or even earlier even if they are brand new. Remote central locking is common on cars despite the doors all being within stretching distance, yet most people have to take a walk around the house to check all the doors and windows are shut and locked when they go out. When they get home they will be fumbling for their house key on the doorstep in the rain, despite the fact they will probably keep the house for many more years than the car. The mirrors on their car are probably heated to demist them, although the one in the the bathroom which mists up most days isn't. Why?

B Fraser
22nd Sep 2016, 21:52
The futurologists (now there's a non job if ever there was one) were predicting 50 years ago that today, robots would do all the chores, we would live on Mars and eat pills for dinner. Where is the graph showing over-prediction ? Probably stashed away with the hover cars.

radeng
22nd Sep 2016, 21:57
Seems to me that dr/dt (rate of change by time) is in reality, often negative!

Mechta
22nd Sep 2016, 22:56
The futurologists (now there's a non job if ever there was one) were predicting 50 years ago that today, robots would do all the chores, we would live on Mars and eat pills for dinner. Where is the graph showing over-prediction ? Probably stashed away with the hover cars.

"...we would live on Mars..." Plenty of people do these days, although other types of junk food are also available.

"...and eat pills for dinner... The futurologists making these predictions 50 years ago are, if they are still around, probably being given a good helping of pills with their evening meal at the old folks home.

ExSp33db1rd
23rd Sep 2016, 07:01
.......... will be fumbling for their house key on the doorstep in the rain,

.............. and then be unable to remember the code to disable the burglar alarm. (but no one will come to see what it's all about, anyway )

But as far as Medical science and Dieticians are concerned, so called progress will be reversed every two or thee years. Just heard of a book " Show me the Money, Honey " which now reckons that reduced salt, and reducing cholesterol, is exactly the wrong thing to do. Give it a few years and sugar will be back in as a health supplement. Remember how "Craven A soothes a sore throat" ?

So long as a reasonable amount of alcohol and an unreasonable amount of chocolate is still approved, why worry ?

Mentioned the above to my doctor yesterday, he said that there is nothing new in medicine, it doesn't matter what you say, it will all be accepted - one day.

oldchina
23rd Sep 2016, 07:45
In the 1950s anyone trying to predict road deaths in the UK would have seen a steady increase out to the year 2000. In fact deaths went up and then declined dramatically. We know why now. Simply continuing the trend is a great trap for forecasters.

hiflymk3
23rd Sep 2016, 08:42
Pity human nature hasn't progressed that much.

Sallyann1234
23rd Sep 2016, 10:08
Exactly. What is being discussed is change, but is it really progress?

Ogre
23rd Sep 2016, 10:55
I would have said the rate of change of electronics has slowed, but I admit I could be out of touch. There was an oft quoted law regarding the number of transistors on a chip and how it would double every 18 months, during the 90's we started with a 8086, 186, 286, 386, 486, Pentium, Pentium 2, and then it appeared to stop. What sort of processor is in your latest iPhone, Android phone, laptop? Did we reach the limits on technology? Or are we just getting using it more by putting processors in everything?

onetrack
24th Sep 2016, 05:39
I seem to recall a projected future forecast from the 1890's, that predicted the world would be 4 feet deep in horsesh*t - and the air would be unbreathable due to kerosene fume pollution - by 1950.

Unfortunately, future projections can't see new inventions, and product development breakthroughs, that make a huge difference to the direction humanity is going.

I have a copy of the Peoples Almanac, by Wallechinsky and Wallace - dated 1975. It has several pages containing "experts" opinions of what the world would be like in 2015, and the fabulous devices we'd have at our disposal.
It's a real chuckle to see how far out they were. Funnily enough, not one of them predicted the Internet.

Tankertrashnav
24th Sep 2016, 23:00
Don't forget, this rate of progress is not evenly spread among the world's population. Some of us may feel left behind because we don't yet have fibre optic broadband, but 10% of the world's population don't have access to a clean water supply, and over 30% don't have access to a toilet.

Hydromet
24th Sep 2016, 23:04
Onetrack, in 1975 I was working with a smart new graduate in a computing discipline, and he predicted something very like the internet. Also, the great advances in data storage. I sometimes wonder where he is now, and if he was able to profit from his foresight.

evansb
25th Sep 2016, 01:59
Hmm..yes, "progress". Progressing towards what exactly?

De_flieger
25th Sep 2016, 20:29
Looking around at some threads on Jet Blast, the 1950s? :ok:

Gertrude the Wombat
25th Sep 2016, 21:22
Onetrack, in 1975 I was working with a smart new graduate in a computing discipline, and he predicted something very like the internet.
It was already there (but called ARPAnet and not available to the general public).


What was being talked about in 1975 was "something very like the web". I went to one conference, for example, at which one of the talks was about a multimedia disk on diseases of the knee, combining video, text, tests, etc all in one piece of software. The person giving the talk said that she thought that one day there might be "just one document" on everything, that you could navigate around.

Gertrude the Wombat
25th Sep 2016, 21:26
fumbling for their house key on the doorstep in the rain
So in the 1970s the owner of the student house I lived in, with a couple of electronics student mates, decided to put in a keypad operated front door lock so that if we knew the code we didn't need to have our keys with us.


This was switched off after a couple of days, for a variety of reasons, one of then being one of the housemates who came home drunk one night and yelled out the number at the top of his voice whilst trying to key it in, so that all the neighbourhood knew the number. (Which was hard wired, of course, and a serious pain to change - nothing software configurable at that price in those days.)

alwayzinit
25th Sep 2016, 22:08
Hate to say it but conflict and ideally Global conflict has been the biggest driver for progress in most areas of life.
Now if we can avoid that trigger it may save us rapidly sliding down the "Snake" back to the middle ages!
Personally NASA finding life outside our planet would prick a pin in many of our problems, imho, especially religions!

G-CPTN
25th Sep 2016, 22:15
life outside our planet would prick a pin in many of our problems, imho, especially religions!
Why? We are content with Aborigines having their own Gods, and even with some societies having no Gods, so what would confound 'our' religion(s)?

John Marsh
25th Sep 2016, 23:14
G-CPTN:
life outside our planet would prick a pin in many of our problems, imho, especially religions! Why? We are content with Aborigines having their own Gods, and even with some societies having no Gods, so what would confound 'our' religion(s)?Perhaps the final proof that we are not the only race of beings created by God. That same God whom we long believed had put Earth at the centre of the Universe.

Of course, it all depends on what type of lifeform is discovered. How threatening to our collective ego would a harmless bit of slime be? Or something resembling a mass of intertwined metal bands? (Just as an example.):O

G-CPTN
25th Sep 2016, 23:34
G-CPTN:
Perhaps the final proof that we are not the only race of beings created by God. That same God whom we long believed had put Earth at the centre of the Universe.

So is there a suggestion that the Almighty God created all the other myriad celestial bodies to confuse us?

John Marsh
26th Sep 2016, 13:58
In the old belief - yes. To confuse or impress!

oldchina
26th Sep 2016, 20:13
It's time God retired.

He doesn't understand it any more.