ATPL timing advice needed.

[spitfire747]

Hi all

I am booked on to start my course at LGU in September, hopefully finishing in April 2003.
Went into my boring rat-race job today with the intention of handing in my resignation and my manager told me they were scared I might leave BEFORE i handed over the envelope and offered me more money,my own assistant etc.. and travel.

Now given the current state of the airline industry. If I start my ATPLs in September and then go on and do the CPL/IR immediately after, i would be fATPL in July.

Should i put my course back and do the next one, starts in January or March, meaning i would have some extra money to pay for the course, all be it finish with a fATPL in December 2003/January 2004, or shall i just go for it in September.

I want to be a pilot more than anything, but i want to time it right aswell. Do not want to be on the dole with for 6 months cos i am too early and then again i do not want to be in Spitfires Burger ar for 3 years waiting for the next upturn..

to those of you with inside knowledge or just a crystal ball.......Please help

[r200biggles]

Piperpilot,
Here is one tip of advice an airline captain told me. NEVER listen to the advice a flying school gives you. After all, they will tell you want you want to hear because they want your money. This may seem harse, but its true - its business.
They may have good intentions - they would give you a job as an instructor, but if no First Officer jobs are available, no Flight Instructor jobs will be neither....:)

[biped]

Spitfire. If you really want to be a pilot then you'll want to be all your life.

You sound like you've got a good job/life etc. But if you want to fly it's never enough.

I don't think there's ever a good time to join the industry. However, you're always told the best time is now (show me the money!). I don't think you can ever time it right. Sometimes you've got to jump. I gave up a job/life to do this. Now an unemployed pilot! I'll keep trying. No option but to suceed!

I'd rather regret doing this than having not! ;)

piperpilot. Saw your posts on another thread. You said you were 17. Wisdom beyond your years mate. And time as well! With your attitude I reckon you'll make it. Hope so and go for it! Good luck!:)

But like the man said; trust no-one

[oxford blue]

This is a very difficult subject on which to give anyone any advice. No two people's cases are the same. We are all driven by different desires and different circumstances. What is right for one may not be right for another.

All that said, I cannot see any reason to rush into a career of enormous challenge, when you, unlike many others, have a safe alternative to stay in until things get better.

The airline industry is going through a quite unusual setback at the present time. In my opinion, this is exceptional. It is fighting the trends of history. Whether Osama bin Laden is alive or dead right now, his epitaph will be that he had very little effect on the Western European-American liberal-democratic ideal, but it is unquestionable that he set back the western commercial aviation industry by at least 3 years. However, not even he can fight history. The future is bright - and it isn't orange.

Look at the overall projections for the aviation industry, and the picture isn't at all bad. Mosr people accept the forecast that by 2015 the world passenger-mile figures will have doubled. Where are those pilots to come from? The Cold War is over. The USAF and the RAF are no longer providing a large wastage rate to be mopped up by the aviation industry. The new generation of airline pilots are you, the wannabes.

This is a historic change. They used to be us, the knackered old fellows who were ex-military. Those people are not around any longer; they're getting too old. The next generation, the military pilots of the 80s and 90s do not leave the USAF and RAF in such great numbers, because, quite simply, post Cold War, there aren't enough of them. For example, between 1989 and 1995, the RAF went down from 90,000 personnel to 50,000. OK, they weren't all pilots, but you get the general trend.

Hang in there, and all you wannabes who want to fly for a living are going to be a very desirable commodity. Not that many people can hack it as an airline pilot. If you can, almost no matter how bad you are, you WILL have a decent living over the next 30 years - starting from, in my guess, about 2004, as long as George Bush doesn't decide to attack Iraq. (Actually, I think Colin Powell's got enough sense to stop him!)

However, in the short term, airlines live or die by their day-to-day cash flow. No matter how great your desire to commit aviation (even as the managing director of a big airline), if more money is going out faster than is coming in on a daily basis, the bean counters will close you down. The shareholders won't stand for it. They want a return for their money.

In these tough times, only the strong will survive - and the accountants won't let them take on any more pilots. But it can't go on for ever. But whilst American tourists won't go on Transatlantic flights, do you really think that it will stop your local plumber or decorator from having his holiday in Malaga or Torremolinos this year? Of course it won't!

Give it time, and the airline industry will recover, and go on to greater strength than it had pre Sep 11 1991. But if I had a son aged 19 and he wanted to be an airline pilot, I'd tell him, "Look, there's no rush. You WILL have an assured career in an enormously competitive market - if you can hack it. But there's no rush to start it immediately. It will be damned difficult for the next 18 months or so, until the industry settles down and we can re-employ all the very well qualified pilots who are temporarily out of work right now. Just wait a year - especially if you've got another string to your bow and you have some surplus cash to spend on flying for a hobby and keeping yourself current."

Spitfire, given your circumstances, stay in the job for another 6 months to a year- well, at least, that's my view. All I ask is that, after this, never accuse Oxford of only being after your money. Otherwise, I'd be telling you to start at once, right away, with any school.

All the best, whatever you decide to do.

[sally at pprune]

Hi Guys

I’m in the same boat; should I go for it this autumn or work for a while? My Dad’s pilot & he’s been trying to find out recruitment plans in the industry etc. His current advice, based on talking to recruitment managers at his own airline and one other, is that there may be some cadet schemes launched this autumn, but nothing is definite, and the numbers are likely to be well down on previous years.

Apparently (big surprise) there are a lot fewer people in training than usual. Obviously, if we start later this year, we’ll not be on the job market until the back of 2003 at the earliest. Some of the airlines are already getting nervous about recruitment then, anticipating a recovery by then. Hence starting cadet schemes when there are surplus pilots!

So my 3rd hand advice is “don’t rush into anything”. It would be dreadful to find out that there are cadet schemes coming out just after you’ve paid out lots of money! Anyone who signs up at a school between now and October (apparently, September is the traditional advertising month) is risking that. It also gives a few months extra for the market to recover before you get to the other end!

If I find out any more about cadet schemes, I’ll post it here: right after my application is in the post.
;)

[biped]

Guys and gals. Getting a license isn't easy! Why start trying when there's an upturn? Be ready on the door when there's an upturn!

However, might be best to have something to fall back on!

My point was; pilots should be pilots. Even if they're waiting! ;)

[FlyingForFun]

Spitfire, Sally and others...

One possibility that you may not have considered is distance learning. This is what I'm doing.

My reasoning is that, as you say, the airline industry is not a good industry to be getting into at the moment. But, although no one knows for sure, it seems like it will improve over the next few years. However, I don't want to put off getting my ATPL(f) - I'm the kind of person who has to feel like he's doing something positive. Besides which, if you put it off once, it's easy to put it off the next time, and the next, and the next...

By doing distance learning, I'm able to take a positive, active step towards my goal. But at the same time, I can keep my current job. I'm planning on keeping this job until I get my first flying job, doing the CPL and IR in my holiday time. I figure this will take around 3 years, by which time the industry will, hopefully, have picked up again.

Let me qualify this by saying that distance learning is not for everyone. It's very hard work, especially if you're trying to keep up a full-time job at the same time, and if you're not the kind of person who's going to be able to motivate yourself to commit every spare hour to stuyding, then don't do it. But, if you've got the distance learning mindset, I think it's the best option for people in the situation you and I are in.


Now, slightly off-topic, sorry. But Spitfire, I can understand your dilema re. the timing of your pay-rise, etc! Several years ago, long before I got bitten by the flying bug, I decided to change job to aid my career progression. I got offered a new job, and was just waiting for written confirmation before handing in my resignation. Two days before I got my new job offer in writing, one of the company directors called me into his office - he was managing a very high-profile project which was having some problems, and wanted me to help out. I had to say no, of course - and told him, off the record, that I was likely to be handing in my notice within a few days. Fortunately, he and I had a good working relationship and I had a lot of respect for him - if it had been someone whom I'd had less respect for, I'm not sure how I'd have handled the situation. Good luck, though, whatever you decide to do!

FFF
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[Father Mulcahy]

Flying for Fun,

Couldn't agree more with your post mate.

Distance Learning, and flying on days off/weekends/holidays is the way I'm going, and it's the only way I can get my fATPL and keep paying my mortgage ! Horse's for courses obviously, though.

Enough fun, better get back to the work. :(

Bless You All

Father Mulcahy

[gus_honeybun]

This is a good thread this. With most residential courses due to start soon, I think the advice and view points stated here will help us wannabe's gain a better idea of what to expect.

The atpl theory exams, IMHO, is the biggest single commitment you need to make to achieving the fATPL. Either 7 months of full time study or at least one year of part-time if you can fit the recommended number of hours in each and every week. You may have all the money saved to do the cpl course, but if you can't motivate yourself to complete the theory, then what?

I personally could not hack doing the atpl's by distance learning. As FFF says, it's not for everyone. To my defence though, I currently work doing a very brain intensive job, and when I get home at night all I want to do is switch off and relax, play with the lassie and maybe pop to the local for a pint or eight. I can't bring myself to start to wrestle with the nuance's of power/drag ratios for three hours. I do envy those of you who can and i wish you the best of british and all that.
You must be honest with yourself before going DL, that you can devote the 15 hours each and every week to study. It's not easy, but people have gone this route and passed, and people will have gone this route and failed.

The only other option is residential. At least the moitvation will be easier as you spend your whole day at school, learning each and every day, and being taught rather than have to learn yourself. However, the down side is the cost. It's the same price as DL, but 8 months without earning is going to eat a very large whole in you final training money. Plus, you may need to move to be closer to the college in question, which will require extra wonga aswell. In fact, the expenses could go on and on, but each individual case will be different.

FFF make a very good point aswell. If you put it off now it becomes easier to put it off again and again. Nobody knows when the best time to start training will be, except you.

Personally, I am due to start in LGU in september so hopefully i'll see you the spitfire747, i'll be the poor looking sod at the back :D

[spitfire747]

Cheers Guys and Gals, some very interesting and positive advice. I must point out about the distance learning option not being for me. Despite me being only 24 years young now, with a mind boggling job, no mortgage luckily to pay and no financial commitments, i do not have the ability to religiously study 3 hours every night and all day weekends by-myself, i need the help and support of others and tutors. I think this goes back to the days of school,college and uni, where term time was great but when revision time came for exams, all went t*ts up. Given that there will be the most important and time consuming aspect of achieving the fATPL, i want to get it right first time.
Everyone is differenet and everyone does something a different way but if it all leads to the same thing then it cannot be wrong.
Timing is crucial in virtually any career, maybe even more in the aviation industry, all figures given and future demands that have been projected, are all only guesses, no one knows what the future holds. My whole point was i know what i want and i want it yesterday, but it is not possible like that.
My thinking was given a pay increase, work for 6 months until January and i could maybe save enough to pay for the ATPL course in full, without needing a loan, but then again i am itching to spend 10 hours a day eating and sleeping what i love... .
Anyway i have to decide by the end of July.

Thanks all for your posts, good luck to everyone, it will be worth it when you make it, i know it.

Cheers, Spitty