US Army Expects Major War Within 5 Years

[ORAC]

Let's just hope it's not in Europe....

U.S. Army Fears Major War Likely Within Five Years (http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2016/08/24/u-s-army-sees-major-war-within-five-years-but-lacks-the-money-to-prepare/#279cff72397f)

[BEagle]

A bit of sabre-rattling might perhaps divert attention from the fact that the Army of the oo-ess-ay cannot manage their allocated budget?

But if that lunatic Trump is elected as Mr Pres., all bets are off.

[Chronus]

A bit of sabre-rattling might perhaps divert attention from the fact that the Army of the oo-ess-ay cannot manage their allocated budget?

But if that lunatic Trump is elected as Mr Pres., all bets are off.
If Trump is looney, what would that make George Bush, who was convinced he saw terrible things like WMDs and managed to infect another imbecile, whom everyone had every reason to believe was nothing but quite harmless, with his delusions. Not that I am any kind of a shrink, but could it possibly be termed paranoid schizophrenia.

I love the film " Dr. Strangelove".

[Lonewolf_50]

BEagle, the Army are indeed managing the allocated budget as they usually do, and as usual they have to provide reports to service secretaries on what expected readiness shortfalls are.


This happens every year, in times of good funding and bad.


I am not sure if you are familiar with Integrated Priority Lists, and "approved but zero funded" programs and procurement. I got very familiar with those things back in the 90's as funding went down but the OpTempo went up.


It's an old story. So, choices have to be made, which means some choices can't be made. Some of those choices reflect in changes to weapons system upgrades or acquisition. (For example, a few years ago the OH-50D was chosen for elimination top to bottom, which cut short an upgrade program). Who is concerned about this? Business. People who sell things.


Please pay attention to the disclaimer at the end of page 2 of Mr Thompson's piece. (Several of the Army’s equipment suppliers are contributors to my think tank and/or consulting clients.) Remember, this article was written for Forbes, which caters to business. Who is his audience for that piece? People who make money selling stuff to the Army.

[Pontius Navigator]

LW, I don't think BEags was that far off from you. If the threat played up then you might get a budget uplift. As I said before the F15 procurement was based on the Backfire threat to CONUS. As the F15 entered service it happened that the Backfire threat was amended. I don't know if that was just happenstance or Machevallian.

[chopper2004]

Hmm remember the joint services ex called Jade Helm which had started in October 15 and took over 6 months with no signs of Endex. - Back in March an American ex pat (father of friends of friends ) one night downtown was telling me about this.

He said it caused a lot of the populace in the south west states to be paranoid from CA to TX as everyone from active to National Guard, to Homeland Security mobilising like someone was going to march on the shores of Malibu beach or Imperial Beach!

cheers

[West Coast]

Given all the crap going on in the South China Sea, NK, the Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere, I'd be hesitant to dismiss this as as a budget ploy.

[SASless]

As we no longer have the Strategic Assets to fight two Wars at a time due to Budget Cuts and the wear and tear of Fifteen Years of War....we best pray we don't have any kind of a War at all.

[onetrack]

So it'll be wooden staves and shields at dawn, will it? Ah well, there's always those nukes as a backup if the USA looks like losing. :) (staves = plural of staff)

I would think the U.S. military is certainly considering the very high likelihood of a serious Korean stoush in the offing.

[Fark'n'ell]

US Army Expects Major War Within 5 Years

Bet the Yung Fat Wun will be rubbing his hands with glee when he hears of this.

[Ian Corrigible]

Hmm remember the joint services ex called Jade Helm which had started in October 15 and took over 6 months with no signs of Endex.
Endex was September 15th, as scheduled, two months after the exercise began: Stars and Stripes: Remember Jade Helm 15, the controversial military exercise? It's over (http://www.stripes.com/news/us/remember-jade-helm-15-the-controversial-military-exercise-it-s-over-1.368025)

[Lonewolf_50]

Bet the Yung Fat Wun will be rubbing his hands with glee when he hears of this.
Are all of his tunnels finished?

[Buster Hyman]

Let's just hope it's not in Europe....
Lets just hope they're wrong... :(

[Pontius Navigator]

So it'll be wooden staves and shields at dawn, will it? Ah well, there's always those nukes as a backup if the USA looks like losing. :) (staves = plural of staff)

I would think the U.S. military is certainly considering the very high likelihood of a serious Korean stoush in the offing.
Stave as in a vertical plank? I guess those, with Shields are purely defensive. You really need pikes, that'll hold 'em off.

[Stanwell]

I'm no strategic analyst - but I do get a whiff of BS about that.
Sounds more to me like the time-honoured ploy to get the great unwashed to do what they're bid.
Even relatively recent history tells us that.

Have a look at it..
North Korea is a joke.
China is not yet ready to do anything - it's just playing a game bullying its smaller neighbours to see what it can get away with.
If seriously confronted, it will pull its head in.
Vlad is not that stupid either - I hope.
.

[SASless]

How sane is the NK Leadership and how obedient is the NK Military?

[West Coast]

Vlad is not that stupid either - I hope.

Annexing Crimea by force and a proxy war in the Ukraine doesn't register on your stupidity meter?

[Stanwell]

Crimea?
Well, he seems to have gotten away with it.

[West Coast]

Agreed. This will embolden him moving forward. No military repercussions for that, no military opposition beside local pushback for the rest of what he's doing in the Ukraine, questions about whether title 5 would really apply if Poland is next in the crosshairs.

The elements of a large war are in place and simmering.

[Fark'n'ell]

Are all of his tunnels finished?

LW50, You would have to ask John Hill that.

[Herod]

You really need pikes, that'll hold 'em off.
Pike's what? "Stupid boy"

[onetrack]

Stave as in a vertical plank? I guess those, with Shields are purely defensive. You really need pikes, that'll hold 'em off.No, I was referring to the staff, the fighting stick. You need money to buy those expensive pikes, and apparently the military budget is already extended to its limit. :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stick-fighting

[ValMORNA]

Stick-fighting should be an Olympic event. Oh! On second thoughts . . . . . against H&S regulations?

[SASless]

If fighting with sticks is a violation of HSE....should we not take a second look at the dropping of Bombs on folks as there must be some risk associated with that kind of conduct? We would not want to hurt anyone by doing so would we?

[The Old Fat One]

Please pay attention to the disclaimer at the end of page 2 of Mr Thompson's piece. (Several of the Army’s equipment suppliers are contributors to my think tank and/or consulting clients.) Remember, this article was written for Forbes, which caters to business. Who is his audience for that piece? People who make money selling stuff to the Army.

Way back when I did my international relations degree, I had the good fortune to be a class mate of a very brainy (and very humorous) German, who always encouraged us to read "zee list of contributors" before reading any other part of a book/article.It was called post modernism back then after the French philosopher Michael Foucault..."all truth is illusion" or something like that.

Anyway, pretty clear worthless piece of marketing garbage to anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoe size.

Albeit, we do live in an increasingly unstable world, that's for sure.

[riff_raff]

The US Army is probably better prepared than any of its allied nation's military forces to engage in a major armed conflict.

[ORAC]

The US Army is probably better prepared than any of its allied nation's military forces to engage in a major armed conflict why doesn't that make me feel better.........

[West Coast]

Because the heavy units needed for a sustained campaign are thousands of miles away, a population that is weary of overseas wars may be reluctant to send them, and many host nations will vacillate over the need to have them there.

maybe that's why.

[Rick777]

If Trump is elected we won't have to worry about a war with Russia. He will just give his buddy Vladimir whatever he wants in exchange for building a yuge Trump tower in Moscow.

[Lonewolf_50]

Rick, I'd recommend leaving the US politics hamsterwheel material in Jet Blast. Trying to predict what an already elected president might do is uncertain enough. Predicting what someone not yet elected might, will, or can do is pissing in the wind. (Just make sure you do that down wind).

[PersonFromPorlock]

I doubt Trump would be reckless with nukes; his money is in urban real estate, after all.

[Buster Hyman]

I doubt Trump would be reckless with nukes; his money is in urban real estate, after all.
Are there any Neutron Bombs left?

[onetrack]

The Pantex plant dismantled all the neutron bombs during the first Bush Presidency. When tested, the test results for the Neutron Bomb showed a performance level that did not approach even closely, the original scientific calculations - so they were deemed strategically useless, and they were all dismantled.

Though It Seems Crazy Now, the Neutron Bomb Was Intended to Be Humane (http://io9.gizmodo.com/though-it-seems-crazy-now-the-neutron-bomb-was-intende-1636604514)

[Bigpants]

Politicians start wars, the US needs a President who is more interested in fixing their economy than policing the world with the US Army and CIA. Unfortunately....

[Lonewolf_50]

Politicians start wars, the US needs a President who is more interested in fixing their economy than policing the world with the US Army and CIA. Unfortunately....
Sadly, it's gotten to be a habit since about 1917 when the rest of the world showed quite clearly that it can't police itself. sad but true. I too wish that the urge to meddle was not succumbed to so frequently.

[Heathrow Harry]

but there are loads of posts on here from people in the USA bemoaning lack of US action and wanting continued intervention in Syria, Libya, the S China Sea (onset next crisis here).........................

the problem is people are reluctant to believe that doing nothing maybe better than doing something........................

[sharpend]

Well if there is a war, I'm off back to Jaguars.. Oh yes, I forgot, I'm age 70 and Jaguars are now in museums.

[Bigpants]

No not all, they still taxi around at Cosford and look quite airworthy. Just write a note to CAS and volunteer. If they say no thanks threaten to sue them for ageism.

[Lonewolf_50]

but there are loads of posts on here from people in the USA bemoaning lack of US action and wanting continued intervention in Syria, Libya, the S China Sea (onset next crisis here).
I suggest that in a response to me, Harry, you confine yourself to what I said or a position I have taken. What someone else said, I suggest you take up with them.

As to knowing when to act and when to hold the cards close to the vest ... that's art, not science.

[Heathrow Harry]

no man is an island................

[Jobza Guddun]

No not all, they still taxi around at Cosford and look quite airworthy. Just write a note to CAS and volunteer. If they say no thanks threaten to sue them for ageism.
Bigpants, not any more...