AOPA | General Aviation Pilot Numbers

[aviationadvertiser]

I will give you all a sneak peak of a sample of AOPA charts, which are based on data published by CASA in their annual reports. If you track general aviation pilot numbers from 2000 to 2015 you get a very clear picture of what is happening - a staggering 34% decline in general aviation pilots.

The decline in real numbers means that some 8,000 pilots have exited our industry!

Between 2000 and 2010 we lost approx 3,000 pilots over the ten (10) year period. Then between 2010 and 2014 we lost a further 3,000 pilots - in just four years. Then between 2014 and 2015 a further 1,000 pilots - in just one (1) year.

[Godot64]

Just got a Class 2 medical hiccup (a request for a blood test) which, while I will comply, will cost additional money (on top of the ~$400 already outlaid) and serve no real purpose other than to tick a box somewhere in the bowels of AVMED. This, after waiting six weeks for a response after the date of my medical. And then I'll have to do it all again in under twelve months, because AVMED won't give me a standard 2 year (over 40) renewal due to a completely treated, non-varying medical condition, which is so well controlled that I'm actually in better shape than the general pilot population. And AVMED knows this, having read my renewals for the last several years.

Still, it is what it is. And what it is, is a strong discouragement against attempting to commit private/general aviation in this country. That's why we're leaving. I'm just stubborn, I guess.

[tail wheel]

I suspect that graph would instill a strong feeling of success and satisfaction in some CASA employees.......

[Sunfish]

......and as the numbers of pilots decline, the AVMED staff numbers will actually increase.

The levels of surveillance will increase massively until you require an annual gastroscopy and colonoscopy.


To put that another way, if staffing numbers at AVMED were required by regulation to be strictly directly proportional to the number of pilots, then we wouldn't have this problem.

To put that yet another way, why doesn't AOPA demand an "efficiency dividend" from CASA in the form of direct cuts to AVMED staffing?

[ForkTailedDrKiller]

One more soon to be added to the numbers!

After 43 years as an active GA pilot (CPL, IR, Intructor's Rating), I think I am over it.

Dr :8

[aviationadvertiser]

So, then lets take a look at AVGAS consumption for the same period. Between 2000 and 2015 we have experienced a 35% decline in AVGAS.

[aviationadvertiser]

Lets take a look at another chart... Since 2007 the number of aircraft being added to the Australian general aviation industry fleet has declined by 53%! Yes, you can attribute this to a range of factors. That said, you cant hide away from the fact that reducing pilot numbers means reducing aviation activity!

This is seriously bad news for our aircraft sales industry and the businesses which perform engineering and support. Fewer jobs and of course contributing to industry contraction.

[aviationadvertiser]

With the above in mind, lets take a look at the other side of the aircraft registration equation - The Number of Aircraft Removed from the Register!

Comparing the same period of 2007 to 2015, the number of aircraft cancelled from the Australian general aviation register has increased by 51%.

To be clear, as of 2015 - Approx 350 aircraft were added, with 340 removed! Should the numbers continue on trend, in 15/16 more aircraft will be leaving the register than what is being replenished! Given that full impact of Cessna SID's is now being felt, AOPA believe that the Australian general aviation fleet will now be in established decline!

LETS RE-CAP WHAT THE CHARTS ARE TELLING US....

1. Pilot numbers are in serious decline
2. AVGAS sales are in serious decline
3. Number of new aircraft being added to industry is in serious decline
4. Number of aircraft registration cancellations is seriously increasing

PROGNOSIS: The industry is in established decline - PERIOD.

[aviationadvertiser]

With regard to CASA calling on AOPA to prove that the industry is in decline....

All of the data for the above charts have been sourced from CASA and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. There is also data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. All of the information is publicly available and downloadable from their various websites.

[Lead Balloon]

I'll bet CASA uses a different definition of "the industry" than you are.

[Sunfish]

now remove the overseas student activity from the GA mix and you will see real decline.

in terms of the political mantra of jobs, investment and growth both parties and the regulator have utterly and completely failed to produce an environment conducive to growth in the GA aviation sector.

While it is tempting to suggest that this state of affairs is an unstated but desirable policy result, I.prefer to think it is the result of employing brain dead ex RAAF morons, starting with the Director of Aviation who have never worked a day in their lives except at taxpayer expense and thus have no conception of the private sector environment, nor perhaps being a powerless private citizen.

To put that another way, they are like vampires that have no existence outside the darkness that is Canberra - they suck our blood.


...and another thing, how many RAAF pilots get put through the alcohol/liver function test regime forced by AVMED on private pilots at the slightest excuse? Not any I bet which considering what I've seen in one or two RAAF Messes is remarkable.

[Frank Arouet]

What does "attachments pending approval" mean and how does this give me an understanding of the topic being discussed. Does this concur with my previous graphs that were provided and given various acceptance and some disbelief.

[Ultralights]

still waiting approval? just like the industry i guess...

[YPJT]

Well said Sunfish.
:D

[tail wheel]

What does "attachments pending approval" mean and how does this give me an understanding of the topic being discussed.

Frank, welcome to the electronic World.

Put your mouse over the attachment, click on the attachment and - voila - it opens in a new Window!!! :ok:

If all else fails ask one of your Grand kids to teach you!! :} :}

Great graphs!! :D

[Aussie Bob]

Doesn't work for me either, perhaps its an Apple thing. Mouse over makes no difference and I aint got no grandkiddies to ask.

[Capt Fathom]

Doesn't work for me either.
Desktop or iPad. Tried Safari and Chrome.

[tail wheel]

How strange? I'm using IE 11 and have no problems opening the graphs. I wonder whether my Moderator privileges give me the access?

Apologies Frank, but you deserve the insult!! :} :} :} :}

Busy for an hour but I will open and try to re-post them as images. :ok:

Stand by.........

[WannaBeBiggles]

Might work for someone with admin privileges but doesn't work here either... Probably has something to do with Attachments Pending Approval

[Vag277]

Sunfish - you are wrong for every DAS since CASA was formed 21 years ago. All have worked in the industry and only 2 had any RAAF background.

Ben - you have documented status, what analysis has been made of causal factors such as pilots dying of old age e.g. early baby boomers, moves to RAAus, serious debilitating medical issues, external financial impact of GFC etc?
What analysis has been done of GA business operating costs to show where the money is spent and what market analysis has been done to identify why businesses outside aviation are not using GA freight and charter services?

[gerry111]

"Doesn't work for me either"

Ditto.

[Lead Balloon]

Sunfish - you are wrong for every DAS since CASA was formed 21 years ago. All have worked in the industry and only 2 had any RAAF background.Hmmmm

When I did maths, 1 + 1 + 1 did not equal 2.

Skidmore

McCormick

Byron

(Toller's handicap was that he was a pommie private school prefect prig.)

And that's the passing parade of the last 20 or so years.

Leroy Keith was the last one who knew what he was doing.

[aviationadvertiser]

Vag277 - Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.

The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.

In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!

Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.

Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!

Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,700 pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600!

[Vag277]

Even more reason to understand the real causal factors and include RAAus data

[tail wheel]

I've asked the question of the Tech guys in the US/UK why all users can't open the graphs.

In the interim, here are the graphs in the sequence they appear in this thread:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%206_zpsbmeqrpt0.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%201_zpslphj1one.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%205_zpsjuc1icfu.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%203_zpshkovnoru.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%204_zpsoa1ygsir.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v315/Woomera/PPRuNe/Graph%202_zpspgjyis4p.jpg

Well, maybe not quite in correct order...... :confused:

[youngmic]

Frightening numbers which ever way you look at them.

One could almost conclude that had CASA not relaxed rules around sport aircraft operations back a few decades ago and allowed growth to occur in this area then GA would be now effectively be dead in so far as private flying is concerned.

Sadly the gliding movement is now under similar declining pressures in part because of an increasingly overly stringent maintenance bureaucracy.

It would seem that to a large extent the growth in sport aircraft operations is largely due to cost and freedom issues.

Destroy either of those two components and the appeal evaporates.

Recent changes in the way basic RAAus aircraft have to be maintained shows the first signs of encroachment and erosion of both cost and freedom. It will be interesting to see their stats in a few years.

[Frank Arouet]

Just got them in an mail. bloody marvelous these electronic thingies. Bloody scary these graph thingies...

[Lead Balloon]

But what everyone appears to be overlooking is how much safer Australia is, as a consequence of all the good work of CASA and AVMED and millions of square cubic kilometres of military Romeos.

If you plot accident and incident rates USA v Australia you'll find...errrm...oh...ahhh....

Well anyway, it makes Australians feel safer to know that Australian regulators claim to know better.

I reckon the ADF and CASA should be explaining to the USDF and FAA how to run aviation properly.

[aviationadvertiser]

I am working on the comparative UK data, tomorrow I will upload this. At this stage, however, it does look like the UK pilot numbers have grown.

If this is the case, then that means out of US, UK and AUS we are the only country experiencing serious double digit pilot population decline - or more accurately EXODUS.

[gerry111]

Ben,
Let's assume that your interpretation of the stats is indeed correct. (Even if a significant migration from GA to RAAus is to be ignored.)
What do you and AOPA plan to do that hasn't been tried before?

[tail wheel]

I have discovered an approval attachment process.......

Could someone confirm whether they can now "see" the attachments in this thread?

Thanks

[Lead Balloon]

I can see all the graphs now.

Gerry: I'm hoping Ben/AOPA will take the unique opportunity that is presented by the new Senate cross-bench, having realised, from the history to which you correctly refer, that it's a waste of energy arguing with CASA.

[CaptainMidnight]

Even if a significant migration from GA to RAAus is to be ignoredThat certainly can't be ignored, there has indeed been a significant migration, and their numbers have to be included in pilot numbers and registrations.

"General Aviation" isn't just pilots with ARNs and VH registered aircraft.

To completely ignore sport aviation would be obvious and a tad embarrassing for whoever presents the data to whoever.

[Lead Balloon]

Hence my comment about the definition of "the industry".

Let's assume the sport aviation sector is on the increase. Again, we'd have to ask what's causing the increase and the migration out of 'certified' 'traditional' GA. I'm guessing it won't be caused by everyone flocking there to get the benefit of increased regulation and CASA interference.

[Sunfish]

but does the FAA data include the equivalent of RAA aircraft and pilots or not? Apples with oranges.........

[Flying Binghi]

Some of them ultralights do 182 speeds on a third of the fuel burn. So avgas sales may not be the best metric.

[Lead Balloon]

It's going to be entertaining to see the analysis that 'proves':

(1) the regulatory 'reform' program and Australia's civil aviation rules
(2) AVMED's return to the Dark Ages, and
(3) privatisation of the airports

have all contributed to an increasingly healthy environment for small businesses to innovate and flourish in aviation.

It's self-evident from the warehouses and mouldering ghost towns that used to be bustling with GA activity.

It will just go to show the luxury of arrogance enjoyed by 'The Protected' in Canberra.

The only hope for Australian GA is the cross-bench Senators.

[12-47]

Very worrying data that, especially if you adjust for inflation AND consider the fact we've just come out of the biggest mining boom (and commensurate increase in national income) in the nation's history.

The regulatory aspect is without question one of the factors. It's farcical.

However, you can't overlook the impact that national pro-housing policies are having on investment in other sectors, disposable income and discretionary spending. We have a housing bubble of epic proportions and it is consuming and crowding out the rest of the economy.

At GA level, our industry has long survived on excess disposable income to fund people's activities. Thirty years ago, if you had excess cash and were so inclined, you spent it flying. Nowadays, investment dogma means every advisor and his dog will tell people to use any excess disposable income to leverage heavily into property. You only need to look at the data (middle-upper class participants, values/incomes, rents/incomes etc) to see the obsession.

If and when mean reversion happens, you'll probably see an uptick in these numbers. That was clearly evident in the US data, where post the 2007 housing bust, the GA numbers actually prospered. They're back into a declining trend again and not surprisingly many of their housing markets are starting to appear a little frothy again.

Thanks for posting the data, great stuff.

[youngmic]

Gerry: I'm hoping Ben/AOPA will take the unique opportunity that is presented by the new Senate cross-bench, having realised, from the history to which you correctly refer, that it's a waste of energy arguing with CASA.

From the outset CASA's involvement in any lobbying regarding GA viability should have been no more than to be CC'd in on it, if that.

Matters like this must be focused at the government (and opposition) and as LB stated above a rare opportunity with cross benches is now present.

GA amounts to nothing in votes, so on that basis we have no push, but we do turn money over and as small as we are, we are still an important sector more so than our raw numbers would infer.

GA in all its forms gives so much more to society than can be measured by statisticians and bean counters, those that become involved learn an immense breadth of skills and responsibilities that benefit not just the individual but the community around them.

GA is not just a means of transport or a training ground for future airline pilots it is the ultimate means of transport and a training ground for life.

To my thinking maybe our best approach is to appeal to the heart strings of the government.

But what ever our approach and despite our low numbers unity is critical.

Perhaps this an ideal time for AOPA to grab the ball and run hard, more tangibly an aggressive recruitment drive might be warranted. Looking at the AOPA web sight I had to dig down to find the joining fee, it slightly annoyed me, I like to see prices up front, when I did find it I thought it high.

An aggressive marketing drive half price membership for the next year and if it works and the numbers grow a reduced membership fee there after. Perhaps consider webb based magazine only??

Right now I am trying to do my bit and lobby the local council for key coded access to our tax payer funded terminal. Presently it is locked outside of the hours 0630-1830 and all weekend, hardly conjucive to fostering GA activity.

Anyways if this amounts to 2c worth of opinion then probably I'm over valued.

[LeadSled]

One could almost conclude that had CASA not relaxed rules around sport aircraft operations back a few decades ago and allowed growth to occur in this area then GA would be now effectively be dead in so far as private flying is concerned.Folks,
Do not give CASA any credit for something they did not do, the above was forced on CAA/CASA politically, starting with the HORSCOT (Darling) report into sports aviation, later the major changes forced on CASA by Sharp/Vaile as Ministers, and the then Government policy called "Soaring into Tomorrow" in the late 1990s.
I have been in the business a long time, I cannot recall (with the possible exception of ETOPS in the late 1980s --- not much to do with GA) any reform that was not vehemently opposed by the CASA "Iron Ring". Leroy Keith was vehemently opposed by the hard core, to the degree that he was set up by said cabal, and had to resign.
Tootle pip!!

[triadic]

From AVweb:

The International Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (IAOPA) is pressing the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to adopt the so-called driver’s licence medical as the standard for all private pilots. At the recent World Assembly held in Chicago just before AirVenture 2016, the 63 delegates from 28 member nations passed the following resolution: “The IAOPA Secretary General (Craig Spence) shall work with ICAO towards formal acceptance of medical requirements for private pilots, that are based on national or state medical standards that are currently used for drivers of motor vehicles.” The ICAO standard is currently the same one now in place in the U.S. and most other flying nations and requires private pilots to have standardized medicals from designated doctors at regular intervals depending on their age. But the U.S., which has by far the most private pilots in the world, will be adopting a modified regime of medical requirements for pilots and it will not comply with ICAO standards.

As we’ve reported extensively, Congress has ordered the FAA to amend medical requirements for most private pilots to a system based mostly on self certification and declaration. All pilots would be required to have at least one FAA medical but beyond that it would be up the pilot and his or her family doctor to determine their medical fitness. After the new rules are adopted, any U.S. pilots opting for self certification will not be able to fly legally in other countries. The IAOPA resolution appears to go further than the current U.S. proposal in that there would be virtually no medical oversight for private pilots beyond what is required to maintain a driver’s licence. Those requirements vary from state to state and country to country as well, particularly in the case of older drivers who must prove competence in some jurisdictions

[youngmic]

LS,

Folks,
Do not give CASA any credit for something they did not do, the above was forced on CAA/CASA politically, starting with the HORSCOT (Darling) report into sports aviation,

My understanding of the HORSCOT review back around 1985 was it was primarily focused (for our purposes) on the emergence of Ultralights and the CAA's refusal to allow them to be heavy enough to be structurally sound, keep them below 300' AGL and not allow any training.

The results of this policy were obvious and alarming to the public, they were falling like flies. I can recall at the time a comment attributed to a senior CAA fellow that under this policy it would be likely the problem would go away with a little time.

No doubt they had to move away from that kind of rhetoric when they added the "S" to CAA.

However what I was referring to regarding the relaxation to sporting aircraft was much more recent with the adoption of the experimental category in parallel to how it was being done in the US.

This cleared the way for a massive expansion in the types of aircraft kits which could be imported, built and flown in Australia. I feel it was this evolution that has led us to where we are today with performance homebuilts.

Clearly though the HORSCOT's report was a massive win for the AUF at the time and allowed things such as the Jabiru to flourish.

[Lead Balloon]

Leroy Keith was vehemently opposed by the hard core, to the degree that he was set up by said cabal, and had to resign.I could have sworn that pressure from one Richard Harold Smith led to Leroy Keith's departure. That was back in the fun days when the pollies were worried that RHS had the public profile to make and break governments. Something about Leroy having no aviation experience, as I recall?

Maybe I've misremembered...

[dhavillandpilot]

Having followed this thread start to today the two things that come out are

The golden days of flying your Cherokee or 172 privately are over. These days the equivalent is people my age buying a RAUS type instead of the red MG B or Ferrari

The other golden period to pass is the business that puts a shingle out with 'for charter'

The only successful charter companies these days have a business model based on such roles as tourism freight
aero medical

With air fares so low why be knocked around in a Baron when you can fly in an ATR orDHC 8

The GA industry can and will survive for those that can adapt to what the modern world demands

[no_one]

dehavilandpilot,

What the modern world demands or CASA allows to exist?

[Lead Balloon]

The GA industry can and will survive for those that can adapt to what the modern world demands.Can't argue with truisms. Those that survive will, by definition, be those that survive.

I suppose the point that AOPA and others are making is that "the modern world" shouldn't involve Dark Ages medical and regulatory intervention. In "the modern world" things are supposed to be done on the basis of objective analysis of evidence and objective and comparative risks and costs.

An analysis on that basis would result in:

(1) CASA AVMED being reduced to a coordinator of modern world medical practitioners carrying out examinations and issuing Class 1 medical certificates (minus the CVD restrictions bull****), and

(2) the product of the regulatory 'reform' bugger's muddle being put through the shredder

neither of which steps would produce any substantial diminution in safety outcomes, but would reduce, substantially, the resource burdens imposed and stress caused by the busywork of the regulator.

[youngmic]

I suspect the days of the 140's/172's etc. are pretty much numbered, they served us well for a long time but they are by todays standards inefficient.

The way forward right now at least for private ownership is kit built 2 seaters with good GNM fuel economy and better GS and cheap-ish entry prices. In fact a local aeroclub is considering selling their old Cessna and purchasing a 2 seat performance kit plane (ready to fly). This will likely reduce their flying costs and invigorate club enthusiasm.

The next step might need to be a process whereby we allow a commercial entity to assemble the kits on behalf of a new owner. The more I consider this concept the more spin off benefits I see. However it will only work whilst CASA are kept on a short leash, in the meantime in the absence of government enthuisiasm there is a golden opportunity some semi retired LAME's to beaver away in sheds for cash money.

This is already happening in the shadows and is proving successful, however our ever listening government still considers this to be so heinous as to warrant prison time if your caught and resist paying your financial penance.

In an act of gross hypocrisy though, it is the same business model as governments around the world including ours do and have done when purchasing high ticket priced items from aircraft to cars to machinery and plant. Bought in basic kit assembled locally.

Maybe Malcolm Turnbull when he publicly outlined his vision of an "innovation nation" was intending his comment to be taken metaphorically rather than literally.

[Lead Balloon]

I haven't heard any Commonwealth government of recent times connect innovation with aviation.

Apparently the infrastructure inputs to innovation are roads and railways. So 21st century!

I suppose governments figure that aviation and innovation don't mix. I'm guessing a Commonwealth government won't be building any airport infrastructure unless and until the public interest test is met: Would the new airport be a lucrative monopoly that can be gifted to our political camp followers/donors?

[Sunfish]

Youngmic, kit built means 51% done by the owner. Serial assembly will turn the product into another class that will require LAME maintenance.

Be careful of all those sleek two seaters. They are gorgeous looking but the low wing ones have little legs that are easily busted and not much crosswind ability. RVAC had considerable experience with sport stars and they did not prove as bullet proof as the old C150's.

[youngmic]

I haven't heard any Commonwealth government of recent times connect innovation with aviation

I haven't heard any Commonwealth government of recent times connect.

Fixed :ok:

[youngmic]

Youngmic, kit built means 51% done by the owner. Serial assembly will turn the product into another class that will require LAME maintenance.

My point exactly, time for a rule change/modify or so be it, as a homebuilt owner but not builder I don't mind having a LAME look over my aircraft it costs little when I help out and it adds another level of safety to the exercise.

Be careful of all those sleek two seaters. They are gorgeous looking but the low wing ones have little legs that are easily busted and not much crosswind ability. RVAC had considerable experience with sport stars and they did not prove as bullet proof as the old C150's.

Absolutely correct.

In the bigger picture it probably won't matter, they'll break a few but it means they're using them and as you said they're gorgeous looking and this means peeps will want to fly 'em.

If the legs break evolution kicks in and the manufacturer will beef them up or locals will innovate a retro upgrade. One way or another stuff will happen and unless stuff happens soon enough we will be reading NOTAM's with "Caution Tumble Weeds Across the Runways".

[thorn bird]

Gentlemen and ladies, or should I say Colleagues,
there is an article in this AM's Australian that everyone in the Industry should read.
For the first time in the mainstream press a tacit admittance by CAsA that perhaps they have got it wrong.
To me it illustrates that AOPA has now got its act together and finally become a true advocate for the GA industry and is gaining traction in the very urgent necessity to reform the regulator.
There will no doubt be some who dont necessarily agree with everything AOPA is expressing, but they appear to be making headway and regardless of issues people may have, I believe it is vital that if you have skin in the game or love the industry as I do, we all need to get behind AOPA, become involved as a member, not just adding your finacial support, but your input, ideas, knowledge and experience.
The AOPA in Australia could grow into the powerful advocate that the AOPA in the US is for their industry, to do that they need support.

[Sunfish]

could AOPA organize "corporate membership" for SAAA and RAA, etc. and thus act as an umbrella organization? ....without pissing contests ensuing?

[thorn bird]

Sunny, great idea but I fear it would be like trying to herd a bunch of cats.
I'm just an outsider looking in.
What I see is a bunch of competing ego's that CAsA plays very well.
There are several core issues I believe that everyone agree's with, if people could just put aside their own self interests and focus on those we might start getting somewhere.
To my mind AOPA has had a win in the PR game, they have created a crack in the armour, without support, that is membership, not just for fees, which are less than a tank full of gas for your car, but putting ego's aside and actively participating, there is a chance to build on that little win.
There are some very astute people now involved in AOPA management but they cannot do much without membership support.

[LeadSled]

Maybe I've misremembered... Lead Balloon,
Not really, RHS was no supporter of Leroy, and when he was presented with the opportunity to challenge Leroy, he did. The rest is history, with Leroy's services being snapped up elsewhere.
However, it was the dud figures from those we would now call the "iron ring", that set Leroy up for the confrontation with the Board.
Tootle