Weekly grocery shop delivered to door by Drone ?

[Danny42C]

Day before yesterday, the news Channels were full of the "Drone Mail Order/Groceries Delivery" story. Reaction (1): pinch myself, (2): check was not Apl 1st, (3): Roll about in helpless laughter for a while (not good at my age)...

Partially recovered, looked round Internet a bit, seems more than a daft idea - there is actually hardware in the metal.

What do other PPRuNers think ? (Would need hundreds/thousands new Drone "Pilots" ?) - any hope for well-ish-preserved 94 yr old with 1,000 + hrs mostly single-engine straight wing tail dragger time ?. (Would work from home) ?

Tongue in cheek,

Danny42C.:ok:

EDIT: No replies to me, please - I've just broached the subject to set the ball rolling !..D

[Wander00]

Less bothered about grocery/on-line purchases delivery than what the less scrupulous around the world, south of the Mediterranean (well don't want to sound racist) might use them for

[andytug]

I believe this is already the case within several of our prisons, but the "groceries" are somewhat different from Tesco's.......

[Bing]

Would need hundreds/thousands new Drone "Pilots

Why? It just needs GPS and someone to monitor a clutch of them at a control centre. I mean assuming they can get around that whole pesky requirement to remain in visual contact with the thing.

[Tankertrashnav]

I dont want you delivering my order Danny, if you dont mind. After you've dive bombed my house with a bag of groceries from 3,000' I dont think they are going to be in very good shape - the eggs will definitely be broken, for a start ;)

[Lyneham Lad]

Why? It just needs GPS and someone to monitor a clutch of them at a control centre. I mean assuming they can get around that whole pesky requirement to remain in visual contact with the thing.

Amazon are already addressing that aspect:-
From The Times 26th July
Amazon has moved another step forward in its quest to become the first retailer to deliver parcels by drone.

It will announce today that it has struck up a partnership with the government to “explore the steps needed to make the delivery of parcels by small drones a reality”.

Amazon said that a cross-departmental team, supported by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), had agreed that it could start a trial of drone deliveries “beyond line of sight” in several rural and suburban areas.

The small unmanned aircraft will be tested at altitudes of up to 400ft and at a distance of up to ten miles. In the US, authorities do not allow drones to be flown out of sight of the operator.

Amazon has also received permission from the government to test the performance of sensors to ensure that drones can avoid obstacles, as well as tests where one person operates multiple drones.

[Buster Hyman]

If it's my shopping, then you'd need a Huey! They'd be better off putting them in a driverless Tesla or sumfink!

[Danny42C]

Bing et al,
...someone to monitor a clutch of them at a control centre...
Did 17 years Air Traffic Controller, too - am I still in the running ?

Doesn't somebody have to take off and land the critters ? Santa Claus ?

Tongue still firmly in cheek !

Danny.

[TCAS FAN]

Its not going to happen anytime soon in the UK. Current civil aviation legislation, and any foreseeable developments of it will not permit a drone free for all.

When the media announces that there is a certified drone sense-and-avoid system on the market to stop drones bumping in to anything (on the ground and in the air) and an insurance company will take on the risk of airborne deliveries, its all a lot of hot air. Current news stories deserve to go straight into "trash".

[Tourist]

TCAS Fan

Have you been watching the news?

It is happening now. The government has given the go-ahead to start it happening.

[ORAC]

You don't see the deeper plan.

Drones to do the delivery; street lights to allow collection without paying shops; not only recharging but also, doubtless, Amazon Prime Wi-FI cells to bypass the ISPs; and taking the cost of supporting and maintaining them off the local council.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/amazon-plans-to-recharge-drones-on-street-lights/

Look deeper.....

[Pontius Navigator]

IIRC, the USAF tried airborne delivery in Bosnia. Enterprising entrepreneurs kept the parcels and doled out contents for hard cash.

Imagine an Amazon miss delivery - deny all knowledge.

[ORAC]

With the drone recording video?

[andytug]

With the drone recording video?
Surveillance as well, airborne CCTV?

[ORAC]

Has to have, to identify the mat shown in their demo video...

Even the very, very, cheapest sold in Currys/PC World in the UK include 4K video as standard.

Just has to link into the street light wifi to uplink the video of the person connecting the parcel - and if a mat no doubt and imbedded RFID

[NorthSouth]

When the media announces that there is a certified drone sense-and-avoid system on the market to stop drones bumping in to anythingI'd be interested to see the sense-and-avoid that allows a drone to avoid the FJ approaching it at 450 knots and 250 feet from just round the valley. In fact I'm very glad I'm not an FJ pilot for that same reason.

[ORAC]

They have had to avoid the organic flying objects since they started - and they are far more numerous. I doubt there are many customers within 25km of a drone depot in the Welsh valleys - and no FJ below 500ft of the major cities/towns where they'd offer the service.

Don't make up issues which only can be easily dismissed - they only make the public dismiss all disquietes.

[BEagle]

Apart from this being quite the most ridiculous idea since the Airlander gasbag, just what weather conditions could these Amazon drones accept?

"Sorry, but the delivery drone was last know of when it encountered a rain storm - we've no idea where your package might be"

The CAA claims it is understaffed. So why is it wasting time on this drone bolleaux when there are more pressing issues still waiting to be resolved?

[haltonapp]

I believe that DHL are testing a drone capable of delivering packages to a distribution centre!

[Tourist]

BEagle

You persist in characterising this as ridiculous.
Airlander, you may be right. Maybe it will never work, who knows. It has none of the serious money backing behind it.

The drone delivery thing is different. Amazon and others are doing it. It is going to be a reality in the near future.

They have comedically limitless funds and very very clever people by the busload.
They also have something that people want, and something that has potentially huge disruptive effects on commerce and travel. If 90% of delivery trucks were removed from roads, the effect would be brilliant. (not so good for the drivers) If you can get things delivered in 30mins from purchase, again society will experience major changes.

Why do you question weather?! Why should weather have any effect whatsoever? There are drones that kids can buy now that are totally submergible. You can throw them in rivers. They have extremely strong control authority.

Are you not slightly worried that you are going to look silly when this very obviously happening technology starts delivering to your street? Will you come on here and admit you were wrong?

[DON T]

I can accept that technically this idea is possible, what I do question is the viability of delivering to certain areas of uk that have a reputation of let's say 'being slightly on the other side of the law'. Amazon would soon run out of drones in Toxteth.

[mmitch]

I can just about believe driverless trucks between logistics hubs but even a van delivering to private addresses is fraught with problems. What happens in a block of flats? What happens if the customer is out?
mmitch.,

[andytug]

I would say the biggest obstacle to this is parcel weight, anything over a couple of pounds in weight is going to need a huge drone (size goes up = more battery weight to carry, etc). However if you've ordered something small and light, and there's a fair amount of that, it may well work out easier and cheaper for a drone to do it than a man+van. In a city with traffic jams it will probably be faster, too.
Don't expect Jewsons will be using them much, though.......

[ORAC]

86% of Amazon deliveries weight under 5Lb, the current drone limit. They will always have a small pool of manned vehicles for the remainder and for difficult deliveries. T&Cs will no doubt reflect longer delivery times, and increased cost for those who request personal delivery, just as they allow the option of Prime/routine/no rush delivery at present.

[Tourist]

First and most lucrative is surely the important and time critical document deliveries currently the preserve of the cycle courier in big cities.

[TCAS FAN]

Tourist

I sincerely doubt it. The law as it stands in the UK is that a drone cannot fly beyond Visual Line of Sight of the pilot/operator, typically around 500 metres radius and not above 400 FT above ground level, unless it is equipped with a certified "sense and avoid system" (which none currently exist) or it is flying in "segregated airspace", which excludes all manned aircraft.

As I previously mentioned until a sense and avoid system is fitted, the drone operator can secure insurance cover or the law is changed (which on safety grounds it will not) drones will not be delivering anything, unless within 500 metres of the pilot/operator.

[Tourist]

I can accept that technically this idea is possible, what I do question is the viability of delivering to certain areas of uk that have a reputation of let's say 'being slightly on the other side of the law'. Amazon would soon run out of drones in Toxteth.

That might happen initially, but think about it a bit deeper.

The areas that are dodgy will have local thugs in charge of local gangs. They will start to be put out if they can't get the deliveries just like everybody else and will put a stop to it.

An example is mobile phones in Mogadishu. Somalia is a totally failed state, yet there is good coverage and nobody messes with the installers and repair men. All sides from nominal government/s to ISIS don't mess with the phones because everybody wants them to work.

[Tourist]

TCAS

You have not actually bothered to research a single article before spouting on here have you?

Since you are lazy...

Amazon to step up UK tests of delivery drones (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/07/26/amazon-to-step-up-uk-tests-of-delivery-drones/)

https://youtu.be/_qah8oIzCwk

The law does not stand as you say for Amazon any more. The U.K. Government has removed the requirements you mention for Amazon, and I'm quite sure others will have them removed shortly.

[Chugalug2]

Thanks for the links Tourist, as I'm lazy too. The law though does still stand for Amazon, as it does for everyone, it is just that Amazon has been allowed certain temporary exemptions in specified "Controlled Spaces" (including near Cambridge) for the purposes of the development trials. The law may well be changed eventually, if the trials are successful of course. In which case others will indeed want to join Amazon in being authorised by the CAA as well.

The concern is not so much of such authorised users of this technology but rather those who are unauthorised. Special deliveries to prisons have already been mentioned. The general security aspects are challenging to say the least and such users won't have to comply with any CAA requirements of course...

[J1N]

One thing has always puzzled me about using drones for delivery: what happens at the actual point of delivery? Probably 90% of deliveries to our home occur while we are out: couriers variously (depending on the nature of the package and the protocal of the carrier) leave the goods in our mailbox, on our doorstep, in our garage, with a neighbour or leave a card in our door. I can't envisage an unmanned device assessing which of these options to use, let alone having the dexterity to do so. And what happens if you are at home: do you get a phone call and go outside to meet the drone? Does it place the package on the ground for you, or lower it somehow? How will it work in crowded urban environments? How does it stop some opportunist snatching the package? What if it pouring with rain? I'll be interested to see this develop...

[ORAC]

On the demo it homed on GPS then landed on a target mat. No reason why it can't home on a phone app GPS location and deliver when a code is entered. Plus they have a patent for replacement street lights with UAV roosts on top, where the parcel is delivered down when a keypad code is entered - just a mod on their current locker scheme, just pick a local street light rather than locker.

Lots of possibilities - one of the reasons for having trials,

[Tashengurt]

I think this is an interesting development. Good to see the CAA being willing to work with the developers.
Amusing to read all the negative comments;
"Horseless carriages? Maps controlled from space? It'll never happen!"

[J1N]

It's fascinating and I'm all for it. Having worked in a similar field in the past I am familiar with many of the problems involved - hence very interested to see how this develops.

[pasta]

Probably 90% of deliveries to our home occur while we are out
Maybe UAV's will bring the flexibility to deliver when people are actually in. I can imagine receiving a notification that my parcel is ready for delivery; when I get home I notify Amazon via my mobile phone, and 10 minutes later the UAV arrives in my back garden.

Another opportunity might be for super-urgent deliveries, which is something Amazon are already getting into. So I spill coffee all over my keyboard while reading the Caption Competition thread, get straight on my phone (because the keyboard's U/S) to order a replacement, and half an hour later it arrives.

Edit: One of the issues with home delivery is that most delivery drivers want to work during the day, whereas most people want their packages delivered during the evening. Throw UAV's into the mix, and it becomes just as easy to deliver your package at 3am as it is at 3pm...

[MPN11]

I would be interested to see how they plan on avoiding the squllions of overhead cables in an urban environment. Are they all logged into a GPS database? And what happens if there's a temporary structure/crane/cable in the delivery area?

[Tech Guy]

https://blog.dashburst.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/amazon-drones-prime-air-05.jpg

[Evanelpus]

..........and the Yodel drone was seen to dive bomb from 1000ft to 50 feet in a manner of seconds, release your parcel into the roof of next doors house and fly off at speed, never to be seen again.

[Tourist]

The law though does still stand for Amazon, as it does for everyone, it is just that Amazon has been allowed certain temporary exemptions in specified "Controlled Spaces" (including near Cambridge) for the purposes of the development trials. The law may well be changed eventually, if the trials are successful of course. In which case others will indeed want to join Amazon in being authorised by the CAA as well.


You can nitpick all you want, but laws that you no longer have to obey are not laws anymore.

[dctyke]

Can anyone say with current battery technology what would be the max return range of a drone carrying 5lb parcel? Would the shooters out there reccomend No5 or No6 cartridge ? 😉

[MPN11]

I would go for No. 4 myself. Or dear old Paddy Woods' No. 5 Express, with a 1 1/4 oz load.

[JG54]

I would go for a home made EM weapon fashioned out of a couple of old microwave ovens and sundry other electrical gubbins. Far quieter and much less likely to attract the attentions of the rozzers. Would also leave payload (more or less) intact.

[RAFEngO74to09]

At the top end of the unmanned delivery spectrum is the K-MAX - used successfully in Afghanistan by the USMC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTxC0gtuRME

K-MAX · Lockheed Martin (http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/kmax.html)

[jim's brother]

I tend to support BEagle's assertion of "ridiculous". There are just too many variables in an urban environment for such a system to be viable. However, the suggestion has certainly got people talking about Amazon, which is possibly the intention.

I do wonder whether this project is, perhaps, staffed by Amazon Prime employees Clarkson, May and Hammond? :)

[BEagle]

Filming in austere or difficult locations, disaster site surveillance, anti-terrorist surveillance and the delivery of critical medical or life saving items to remote locations are obvious areas for the use of small drones.

Using a drone instead of a bike courier to deliver urgent documents is highly unlikely, due to the confidential nature of such documents - which is probably why they're sent by bike in the first place.

But drones buzzing around bringing Kevin the latest breed of iToy, or delivering Mrs Miggins' pies? Very unlikely indeed - listening to recent discussions in the media, it seems that privacy and safety are the two main reasons why the genpub won't tolerate swarms of the wretched things buzzing about. And as for the silly idea of them roosting on top of street lights....:rolleyes:

[Tourist]

Mobile phones?

Ridiculous!

Why would you want a camera on a phone?

Ridiculous!

Fridges with internet connections?

Never going to happen!

Computers in the home?

Don't be silly!

Buy books online?!

.............?

[BEagle]

Hardly valid comparisons....

:rolleyes:

[Tourist]

I tend to support BEagle's assertion of "ridiculous". There are just too many variables in an urban environment for such a system to be viable. However, the suggestion has certainly got people talking about Amazon, which is possibly the intention.


Not that long ago many on here said the exact same thing on here about self driving cars.

They of course have many more variables and enormously higher potential consequences of something goes wrong, yet here we are, only a couple of years later with many many autonomous cars and trucks trialing on real roads all over the uk.

[Tourist]

Hardly valid comparisons....

:rolleyes:
Why?

All examples of tech that few saw a need for or a possibility of achieving.

Re your comment about confidentiality, surely removing humans from the process increases confidentiality.

Cyclist are used for speed, nothing more.

[BEagle]

Self driving cars?

No problem?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/01/tesla-driver-killed-autopilot-self-driving-car-harry-potter

Some of these robotic devices are too stupid to be trusted. Such as the Volvo Intellisafe, I think it was, which suddenly slammed on the brakes when a bird took off from the road in front of it, entering HAL's radar sensor beam...

[MPN11]

Our robot vaccum cleaner can be staggeringly stupid at times, with a poor sense of self preservation.

And I repeat my earlier comment ... how do they avoid the miles of overhead cables in suburbia?

[BEagle]

Some friends had one of those - one night it suddenly decided that it would be a good time to start hoovering at 0-dark-00. They heard this thumping noise downstairs and thought that they had an intruder... She was just about to ring the police when he realised what had happened - the idiot robot had reset its timer for some reason.

I wonder whether these autobrake cruise control systems work in tunnels nowadays? At the press launch of the S-class some years ago, M-B decided that a demo of such a system would be more realistic in foggy conditions, so duly filled a warehouse with artificial fog. The intention was to demonstrate the system by driving one car into the fog, then stopping - and the other was supposed to sense the stationary vehicle and brake safely to a halt. Then the engineers realised that radar reflections bouncing around the interior might confuse the system. The journos had been invited, so a workaround cheat was set up - a piece of wood across the course would be felt by the second driver, who would brake to a halt in the fog as soon as he felt the bump......

Come the day, the first car went in, followed by the second. A screech of tyres and a sudden crash, followed by 2 rather badly damaged S-class....

It seems that someone had tidied up for the visiting journos - "What idiot left this piece of wood lying about"....:\

Anyway, back to aviation. There is an increasing feeling that millennial Children of the Magenta are becoming so seduced by automation that they've lost the ability to cope if things aren't going to plan. They fight with the automation rather than ICO'ing the AFS and flying the aeroplane even in 8/8 blue skies...:mad:

[Tourist]

Our robot vaccum cleaner can be staggeringly stupid at times, with a poor sense of self preservation.

And I repeat my earlier comment ... how do they avoid the miles of overhead cables in suburbia?
You are correct. If your Hoover can't do it nothing ever can.

Case closed.

Re your question about the power lines.

They see the lines.

Watch the YouTube video I posted. This was made by students at uni on a budget, not Amazon with unlimited funds

[The Old Fat One]

Pointing out that the law has not changed but has merely been relaxed to allow a trial to take place is hardly nit-picking.

Where technology is concerned Western Governments are extremely reluctant to appear to be obstructive, lest they miss the boat on something important, so it's a no-brainer that these ideas will be supported, especially when someone else is picking up the bill.

Obviously drone delivery has moved beyond science fiction; equally obviously it is a long way from being operational...and peeps should not cherry pick lists of things that have matured to common use...there are plenty of inventions that never managed to become mainstream items.

In the end, drone delivery will become a realistic option if there is a real human need, which can profited upon, and it is economically and commercially viable.

Personally I suspect we are someway from that at the moment, but I'm no drone expert. I'm a little more sure of my ground, when I point out that Amazon are getting a ton of cheap advertising out of this, so there's a motivation if you are looking for one.

I'm a little surprised that these things are impervious to weather however. How does a drone contend with a 30 knot headwind? Or hail? Or icing? Given I live Scotland, these conditions are hardly unusual or extreme 6 months of the year.

I kinda wondering a about the cost of procuring an all weather drone, that can operate IMC, beyond line of sight, with the fuel and payload performance to deliver meaningful items, with an onboard collision avoidance suite???

Can you get these off the shelf already for few hundred bucks?? If so, i'm impressed.

Edit...hey I just found one...$43000...

MAX flight time : (with payload 8KG) ± 40 min (X8)
MAX operational flight time : (with payload 2KG) ± 67 min (X8)
MAX range : (Endurance based on a 5m/s speed) 20 Km (X8)
MAX forward speed : 15 m/s
MAX climb rate : 5 m/s
MAX descent rate : 2.5 m/s
MAX operational altitude : (ASL) ± 5000 m
MAX range (Radio) : 34 km
MAX range (Video feed from drone) : 34 km
MAX operating wind speed : ± 10 m/s
MIN operating temperature : -5 °C
MAX operating temperature : +50 °C

http://www.airbornedrones.co/collections/a2-systems

[Tourist]

30kt headwind means that they will go 30kts slower. Have a look at the speed of the current racing quads let alone toys like the Amazon model.

Hail no issue.

Icing don't know. Maybe, but then icing also affects delivery trucks.

Beyond line of sight no problem because not flown by a pilot.

Onboard collision avoidance see previous video or the plethora of other YouTube vids of cheapy UAVs under development with avoidance tech.

[Tourist]

Guys I think some of you guys don't quite get the resources that these squillionaires have backing them up.

The Tesla guy has managed to produce rockets that come back and land vertically on a pad on a boat.

All cheaper than NASA.

https://youtu.be/_ZXu_rYF51M

You think little delivery toys are a stretch?

Seriously?

[BEagle]

The technology might work, but whether the general public will tolerate delivery drones buzzing around I very much doubt.

Your Internet fridge doesn't affect others, but a delivery drone would. Seriously!

[jim's brother]

I'm presently drawing planning-permission-type plans for a new parking area outside Jim's brother's cottage, and was musing with the idea of painting a large "D" in the centre and fixing a small windsock to the gatepost. However, looking out of the window, I just can't imagine seeing Amazon, TNT and Yodel inn an automated stack over the village, peeling off to thread their way through the power and telephone lines to deliver my technological requirements - and shirts purchased by Jim's sister-in-law. I have no doubt that this is all possible, but what is possible must always be tempered by what is sensible...

...and economic. Amazon clearly thinks it's worth funding the feasibility project because they will receive enormous exposure - even on Pprune! - but when it comes to comparing the cost of a drone delivery system with the cost of the pleasant chap-in-the-van who usually delivers here, there will be no contest.

These drones are extremely clever, and there is no doubt that Amazon's research will have useful spin-offs in many areas, but I don't think they'll be spinning-off in Jim's brother's new parking area. Pity, I've always wanted my own windsock!

[Tashengurt]

Seems to me that drones could suffer massively from confliction, weather, obstructions, interference, lack of payload, lack of range etc etc.
Let's have a trial to find out.

[sherburn2LA]

there should be a good market in capturing them in a net or some such and selling them on the side.

[Geordie_Expat]

I was going to ask exactly what the hell all this has to do with Military Aviation, then I remembered that there is a thread about BBQs..............

[ORAC]

1TOKpc0wwWw

[The Old Fat One]

Guys I think some of you guys don't quite get the resources that these squillionaires have backing them up.

Can't speak for everyone, but I get it Tourist, perhaps a little better than you think or imply.

There are a reasons why huge companies spend huge money on R&D, and it is not always to innovate new products/technologies.

Take good ol Branson.

Innovated a fancy dan speed boat - it sank.
Innovated a fancy dan ballon thing - it sorta crashed.
Innovated a spaceship - it did crash.

And none of these things have FA to do with his core business, which is operating boring old technologies (trains, airlines) which he did not invent, and which have been around for yonks.

So why does he splash all this wonga...obviously to build his Virgin Brand and keep the big old red logo in our faces 365/24/7. Which he does to amazing effect.

Whether that is all it is with this Amazon drone thing remains to be seen, but for sure it is a massive part of it. It is Amazon's Marketing Department's job to be seen to be constantly innovating, to be seen as the number one online retailer beyond the competition of anybody else.

Consider the business economics for a minute. Amazon have innovated an amazingly cheap, multi-channel, delivery structure. At no capital cost they can utilize zero hour contracted drivers in their own vehicles, as well as all the sub contracted permanent deliverers. They have a growing army of online retailers who will handle deliveries and returns for next to no cost to get round the "not-at-home" during the day issue, simply to drive footfall in their retail premises.

Once the technology has been perfected, yer drones will have to compete with this system on one factor and only one factor - cost.

That's how business works, buddy. And on that you do love to cherry pick peoples posts don't ya. Is that a touch of cognitive bias you have there?

That there early prototype, which is clearly no even close to an operational model, costs $43K. What is it working lifespan? What are the maintenance costs? Compare that to geezer being paid £10 an hour, with zero capital outlay and you might start to understand the gulf that has to be closed, cost wise.

[Tourist]

There are a reasons why huge companies spend huge money on R&D, and it is not always to innovate new products/technologies.


Utter rubbish. They may spend huge amounts on advertising for no new products, but R&D expects a payoff.


Take good ol Branson.

Innovated a fancy dan speed boat - it sank.
Innovated a fancy dan ballon thing - it sorta crashed.
Innovated a spaceship - it did crash.

And none of these things have FA to do with his core business, which is operating boring old technologies (trains, airlines) which he did not invent, and which have been around for yonks.

So why does he splash all this wonga...obviously to build his Virgin Brand and keep the big old red logo in our faces 365/24/7. Which he does to amazing effect.



I think you misread Branson's cause and effect.

I think he likes to do daredevil things (good for him! wish I could.) I think he then finds ways to allay/mitigate the cost by turning it into advertising his brand. He also does daredevil things without fanfare when they are affordable without justification.

However, since you bring up Branson despite him not being even notionally in the same league as Bezos, lets go through your argument.

1. You say his core business is trains and airlines.

That's funny, because I thought his core business was selling records.
Oh, wait a minute, wasn't it Cola?
No, surely its radio?
Rockets?

Or is it one of the myriad of other businesses that have held the Virgin brand.

My point is that just because Amazon started out selling Books, does not mean that that is where it will stay. Bezos is currently into Space (Blue Origin. Is that just an advertising gimmick?)
Physical books has morphed into ebooks which has morphed into ereaders and tablets and Amazon now sells much much more than books which are now only a small and shrinking part of the business.

Yes Branson does a lot of brand promotion, he even promotes things he knows will never happen like Virgin buying the Concorde. He knew that it was a non starter yet milked it.

Now look at Amazon.
Show me a single instance where they or their respective oligarch have splashily advertised and failed to follow though.
They, like Google, Facebook, Apple, etc don't tend to over-promise.



Consider the business economics for a minute. Amazon have innovated an amazingly cheap, multi-channel, delivery structure. At no capital cost they can utilize zero hour contracted drivers in their own vehicles, as well as all the sub contracted permanent deliverers. They have a growing army of online retailers who will handle deliveries and returns for next to no cost to get round the "not-at-home" during the day issue, simply to drive footfall in their retail premises.

Once the technology has been perfected, yer drones will have to compete with this system on one factor and only one factor - cost.


No, we will come on to cost in a moment, but utter rubbish.

There are a huge number of factors favouring drones if they can be made to work

The ability to order online and have delivered into your hand within 30mins day or night is an enormous draw.
Perhaps you have never wasted days waiting for delivery drivers who cannot give you better than half day windows, but for many of us we would go with the supplier that would deliver right now into my hand when I am home. Not just that but I would pay extra for the convenience.

An 80% drop in delivery vans in any city will be welcomed by everybody for the benefits to congestion.
An 80% drop in the pollution from the vans will have a major effect.

How many people are killed every year by delivery vans?




That there early prototype, which is clearly no even close to an operational model, costs $43K. What is it working lifespan? What are the maintenance costs? Compare that to geezer being paid £10 an hour, with zero capital outlay and you might start to understand the gulf that has to be closed, cost wise.


Right, cost.

Lets make the silly assumption that the drone actually stays at £43K (ludicrous, but why not to make the point?)
Let's even go with your figure of £10 per hour for the driver. (also obviously false because a van will burn more than £10 per hour in fuel let alone pay for the purchase of the truck and salary for the driver, but hey, I'm willing to accept your imaginary numbers.)

So it needs to work for 430hrs to break even with the truck driver.

17 days later you are in profit......

Lets not even mention the speed of delivery being vastly quicker in any city traffic thus many more deliveries per hour.



That's how business works, buddy. And on that you do love to cherry pick peoples posts don't ya. Is that a touch of cognitive bias you have there?


I was going to ignore the jibe about cognitive bias, but I don't want you complaining that I'm cherry picking.

I think you need to go visit a dictionary.

Cognitive bias is where you ignore evidence that does not agree with your preconceptions.

Once you exhibit a single piece of evidence to support your opinion, then you can accuse me of cognitive bias.

[Tourist]

TOFO

We are never going to agree, how about a wager?

July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?

[MPN11]

Whichever way the discussion goes, can people please post nicely?

it's a great discussion, even if not exactly Mil Aviation, but disagreement can be done by everyone without being overtly confrontational.

[riff_raff]

In the US, Amazon already has a far cheaper method to deliver packages than using drones. And it is subsidized by US taxpayers. They pay the US Postal Service to deliver packages on Sunday.

It?s Amazon?s World. The USPS Just Delivers in It - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/it-s-amazon-s-world-the-usps-just-delivers-in-it)

[Sun Who]

We are never going to agree, how about a wager?

July 2021, either you send me a £100 Amazon voucher by drone if they exist, or I send you a £100 Amazon voucher by van if they don't and the winner donates it to a charity of their choice?

In the tradition of Phileas Fogg. Great stuff. I for one will check back in five years.

Sun.

[The Old Fat One]

You win Tourist. I know squat. I decline your wager on the grounds of boredom.

I think the debate was conducted nicely...but for sure it has little to do with military aviation and it has now become a borefest, which is largely my fault, for failing to realise how pointless my posts are.

Later XX

[jim's brother]

Perhaps even further from Military Aviation is this quote from Oliver Pritchett's article in today's Sunday Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/30/condiments-are-getting-politicians-in-a-pickle/), an amusing end-user's take on the proposal:

Droning on

It will be tremendously exciting when all deliveries are handled by drones. By the time this comes to pass, our intelligent wheelie bins will be able to sign for things. This will be a blessing. When I try to write on these new gadgets where you use a stylus to put your signature on a skiddy screen it always looks like a picture of a snake falling downstairs. I’m sure a wheelie bin could do better than that. And it will be great when we get the “Sorry We Missed You” message as a text to our phone, instead of on a card hidden under a mound of junk leaflets. Then it won’t be long before every household in the land will have its own “returns” drone. The skies will be full of clothes that didn’t fit.
Of course there are bound to be teething troubles. No doubt the arrival of the drone will set off other devices; the curtains will open and close, the TV will automatically set to record Flog It, the central heating thermostat will be turned down and the electric carving knife will leap into action, but these things will soon be sorted.


In the early days, however, it may be advisable not to ask for the premium super-fast delivery; the drone could come crashing through your front window, drop its package and fly about the room like a panicked pigeon.
Of course, they are bound to want feedback, to hear how satisfied we are with the service. Don’t worry – the clever wheelie bin can handle that side of things.

[Tourist]

You win Tourist. I know squat. I decline your wager on the grounds of boredom.


Whilst you are looking up cognitive bias, may I suggest a quick perusal of "courage of your convictions" also?

[Danny42C]

GENTLEMEN, GENTLEMEN, WE ARE ALL FRIENDS HERE (or should be !)



When I opened this Thread, I had no idea that it would develop in this acerbic fashion, despite MPN11's timely remonstration, and am very sorry that it has done so.

I have now reported it to the Moderators for their attention.

Danny42C.

[Tourist]

My apologies Danny. It was not my intention to upset you, merely to defend my position


http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/duty_calls.png