UK conventional procurement being hollowed out

[Heathrow Harry]

UK conventional procurement being hollowed out to pay for Successor SSBNs | IHS Jane's 360 (http://www.janes.com/article/62430/uk-conventional-procurement-being-hollowed-out-to-pay-for-successor-ssbns?utm_campaign=%5bPMP%5d_PC5308_Jane%27s%20360%2027.07.2 016%20_KV_Deployment&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua)

The UK is proposing to spend just under GBP44 billion (USD58 billion) on its current and future inventory of nuclear weapons, and their submarine launched delivery systems up to 2025, according to the latest official figures.

However, over the same period UK spending on equipment for the Royal Air Force (RAF), Royal Navy, and enabling capabilities under the control of Joint Forces Command (JFC) will decline significantly.

The details of the top level budget figures for the UK's defence equipment spending plans by military service were revealed for the first time in the UK Ministry of Defence's (MoD's) annual report for 2015-16, which was published on 14 July. Plans to replace the UK's existing Vanguard class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) were approved by parliament on 18 July. The new data reveals that the annual spending on UK strategic programmes, which includes running the existing Vanguard-class SSBN fleet, sustaining the UK's nuclear warheads and Lockheed Martin Trident D5 missiles, as well as new work to design and build the Successor class of submarines to replace the existing boats, will rise from GBP4.046 billion in 2016/17 to GBP5.676 billion in 2024/25. The total spend on strategic programmes over this period is GBP43.797 billion, which represents 21.35% of the UK's total projected spend of GBP205.332 billion on new equipment and logistic support.

Although the statistics are not broken down by programme, it is possible from published data about equipment delivery dates to understand the profile of spending in each year.

The headline figures show spending equipment and logistic support for RAF Air Command will drop from GBP3.552 billion to GBP2.396 billion. The logistic support element of this is expected to remain constant at around GBP1.8-2.2 billion in each year over the decade. As a result, the RAF will only be spending GBP552 million on new aircraft and other equipment in 2024/25, two-thirds less than the GBP1.61 billion spent in 2016.

[Not_a_boffin]

It will be interesting to see whether there's a shift in the HMT attitude to funding deterrent outside the EP (or adding to the EP to compensate) now that Spreadsheet Phil has the seat. Unlike Osborne he has seen the real impact.....

[sharpend]

But the new CAS has stated that the RAF is going to expand! He must be brilliant to get to be CAS, so I suppose he can pull a rabbit out of a hat; ie expand with half the required budget.

[Heathrow Harry]

£552 mm (2024/25) doesn't go far on new aircraft.....

especially as they may be F-35's............

[devonianflyer]

This may be to simplistic a view but surely the decline in RAF procurement spending around then will simply be because everything will (or should) have been bought, pair for and delivered?

A-400, F35, Typhoon tranche3, Protectors, P-8 etc.

As I see it there's nothing in the current pipeline planned beyond then in terms of large capital outlay.

Or am I missing something?

[Just This Once...]

Missing quite a bit, the big ones being the PFIs that still need their pound of flesh.

Not sure how the TLBs will survive, let alone sustain on the pennies left.

[tucumseh]

This may be to simplistic a view but surely the decline in RAF procurement spending around then will simply be because everything will (or should) have been bought, pair for and delivered?

Old rule of thumb was 20% capital costs, 80% throughlife support, but that was really just to emphasise that you needed to make materiel and financial provision for the latter. JTO - nail on head about PFIs. Fixed commitments are first on the shopping list, and the figures quoted probably represent what's left. It is so unrealistically low I wonder if someone has decided "drones are cheap, that's what we'll do". I recall many years ago some 18 year old in an RAF office at Harrogate said "reliability improves with age", so they chopped all repair and spares funding and offered it as a savings measure.

[Heathrow Harry]

The £ 552 mm is only for airframes - they'll have some cash for logistics etc as well

"The logistic support element of this is expected to remain constant at around GBP1.8-2.2 billion in each year over the decade"

Got to keep BAe shares up after all................