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View Full Version : BOM having a bit of trouble with QLD TAF accuracy...


CaptainEmad
19th Jul 2016, 02:59
This unseasonal trough and cold air seems to be making forecasting a challenge.
The weather is pretty poor but the BOM seem to be resisting putting Alternates on.
QF702 is about to conduct an autoland at Cairns due not having the fuel to divert to Townsville.
QL312D diverted immediately.
Mackay the other day was much worse than the TAF indicated for about 12hrs straight.
Turn up with only 60mins holding...

TurningFinalRWY36
19th Jul 2016, 03:19
Aussie airlines should get with the times and always carry an alternate

Sue Ridgepipe
19th Jul 2016, 05:29
Why would you turn up at Cairns without fuel to go somewhere else anyway? What happens if the guy landing in front of you blows a few tires and blocks the runway?

Capt Fathom
19th Jul 2016, 05:45
What happens if the guy landing in front of you blows a few tires and blocks the runway?

It's been a few months since this old chestnut was bought out! :rolleyes:

Tankengine
19th Jul 2016, 06:06
It's been a few months since this old chestnut was bought out! :rolleyes:

And I am sure it will be brought up everytime we hear that some idiot has turned up at Cairns (single, short runway) without Townsville, (pretty bloody close), as an alternate.🤔

601
19th Jul 2016, 07:30
Forecasts have turned to [email protected] since computer modelling became the norm.

Back to the 70s where we had local forecasters who looked out the window, smelt the air, counted the ants and came up with a reliable forecast.

CaptainEmad
19th Jul 2016, 09:45
And I am sure it will be brought up everytime we hear that some idiot has turned up at Cairns (single, short runway) without Townsville, (pretty bloody close), as an alternate.🤔

You reckon that on arrival YBCS we plan for a bit of holding, maybe two approaches, two missed approaches, a climb to cruising level to YBTL where, on arrival, the weather is often not much better when YBCS is crap. A bit of holding (TEMPO) on arrival YBTL, an approach and landing with fixed reserve intact?

I think you would probably find that many operators big or small would not carry alternate fuel into Cairns when not forecast as such.

Capn Bloggs
19th Jul 2016, 09:45
Aussie airlines should get with the times and always carry an alternate
The Aussie BOM should get it's act together!

AmarokGTI
19th Jul 2016, 12:24
Same in SA. Particularly for PLC and KSC.
You call the BOM up and say it has all the ingredients for fog. You ask why it's not on the TAF. They tell you you're wrong. You call the delivery driver at the other end. He takes ages to answer the phone because he can't find it in the reduced vis, then says it's the worst fog he's ever seen.
Then there's the common knee jerk for a few days where they forecast fog unnecessarily as if to try to make up for a previous error.

neville_nobody
19th Jul 2016, 12:34
Aussie airlines should get with the times and always carry an alternate

Even if you tried to legislate that the airline lobby would have it shot down as the expense in the fuel carried every day would have them up in arms.

Additional to that is even with an alternate if the unpredictability of weather or poor forecasting models are the real issue then holding an alternate may not help you as the Mildura incident proved. Two airliners both holding an alternate got caught out at both the destination and the alternate.

The real answer to this problem is to start building CAT II/III ILS's like the rest of the developed world:mad:

But that would mean actually investing money in aviation Australia think its smarter to spend $200 Billion tearing up farmland on a train line:ugh:

Flava Saver
19th Jul 2016, 13:34
Fuel is insurance. Period.

Company gives you flight plan fuel. Agreed.

We get paid to fly passengers safely from A to B. No disputing there.

I have NEVER been rung up by my management from any outfit I've worked for over the years over the amount of fuel I take. GA. Smaller airline. Or Jet transport.

FFS people. They are fuel tanks, not air tanks. If you have a gut feeling take it.
And don't get me started on the fuel fairies carrying on its for our profit share bonus, yet Ops wish to send you non compliant COBT and just take the gas and burn when it suits them. Enjoy your single engine taxiing you twats.

And yes upgraded ILS's would be awesome but it's Australia. Hopefully we'll see this achieved by 2030. :ugh:

BuzzBox
19th Jul 2016, 21:51
Additional to that is even with an alternate if the unpredictability of weather or poor forecasting models are the real issue then holding an alternate may not help you as the Mildura incident proved. Two airliners both holding an alternate got caught out at both the destination and the alternate.

Neville, I hear what you're saying, but the Mildura incident is not a good example. Although the two aircraft were carrying extra fuel, neither had planned Mildura as an alternate for Adelaide. The TAF that was valid for their ETAs at Mildura required either 60 minutes holding or another alternate due to a TEMPO period for low cloud. The two aircraft chose to divert to Mildura on the basis of the Mildura METARs after the Adelaide weather closed in.

bazza stub
19th Jul 2016, 22:51
Just as airlines are trying to convince us not to carry a drop more fuel than is specified on the flight plan.

Tankengine
20th Jul 2016, 00:10
You reckon that on arrival YBCS we plan for a bit of holding, maybe two approaches, two missed approaches, a climb to cruising level to YBTL where, on arrival, the weather is often not much better when YBCS is crap. A bit of holding (TEMPO) on arrival YBTL, an approach and landing with fixed reserve intact?

I think you would probably find that many operators big or small would not carry alternate fuel into Cairns when not forecast as such.

First Officer Emad,
If you had that much fuel at Cairns you probably would have just about been able to go straight to Townsville.😊
I was responding to the disabled aircraft "chestnut".🙄
Yes, I HAVE had an aircraft have a problem on the runway when I was on final and landed elsewhere!😛
"Operators" plan for the absolute minimum, they are not in the F.....g aircraft, Captains add more fuel - where appropriate!😉
Start reading this micro thread at post#3 for context, this is not about wx.

neville_nobody
20th Jul 2016, 01:37
Neville, I hear what you're saying, but the Mildura incident is not a good example.

Fair enough. However even if they had the TEMPO + buffer period at Mildura it still would not have helped them.

All that aside if these events keep happening we need to embrace some 1970's technology in aviation and upgrade the ILS's in this country and probably install better facilities at busy regional airports.

Capn Bloggs
20th Jul 2016, 02:50
Neville, I hear what you're saying, but the Mildura incident is not a good example. Although the two aircraft were carrying extra fuel, neither had planned Mildura as an alternate for Adelaide. The TAF that was valid for their ETAs at Mildura required either 60 minutes holding or another alternate due to a TEMPO period for low cloud.

However even if they had the TEMPO + buffer period at Mildura it still would not have helped them.

Don't agree. Had they been required to carry Mildura as an alternate for ADL, they would have probably had extra fuel (approach fuel) to go to MEL (Cat 3) or at the least, go back to ADL and do a (shock horror) autoland.

mikewil
20th Jul 2016, 02:55
go back to ADL and do a (shock horror) autoland.

How do you do an autoland at Adelaide with the Category of ILS in Adelaide?

Capn Bloggs
20th Jul 2016, 03:12
Quite easy. You push the Autoland button.

Get to Mildura, it's socked in. Now it's a Mayday... go to ADL and autoland! The airport's not set up for LVPs/LVOs but who cares? The aeroplane doesn't know that. Demand ILS protection and the autoland will be better than what happened... a bee's whisker from a couple of hundred bodies strewn over the airport grounds at Mildura.

mikewil
20th Jul 2016, 03:19
The aeroplane doesn't know that. Demand ILS protection and the autoland will be better than what happenedWhy do we have Cat IIIa & Cat IIIb ILS if we are able to autoland on the lower categories anyway? Why bother with the expense of having higher categories of ILS at any airport?

Capn Bloggs
20th Jul 2016, 04:05
IT'S AN EMERGENCY!

Snakecharma
20th Jul 2016, 04:13
There is a huge difference between doing an autoland at a cat 1 equipped airport when pushed into a corner and not bothering with the expense of cat 3 equipment and certification.

The cat 3 stuff gives you appropriate protections for a bunch of failures, lighting on and around the runway, flight testing to the appropriate tolerances and a bunch of other stuff.

You get what you pay for and a proper cat 3 installation will stand you in good stead where it is needed.

I don't think it is needed in Brisbane for the couple of events a year, a shitload of money for very little benefit, money that comes from the airlines and in the usual way of crap flowing downhill pressure on crews to cut costs, hassles at eba time Yada Yada Yada. Raising fares doesn't seem to be in the scope of executive management thinking for some reason.

But back to your question mikewil, I wouldn't do a proper cat 3 approach at a cat 1 installation unless I was pushed into a corner that I couldn't get myself out of any other way. That is a generalisation but you get my point, though I would happily do a cat 3b approach at a proper cat 3 airport any day of the week.

framer
20th Jul 2016, 09:43
Enjoy your single engine taxiing you twats.
lol that gave me a good laugh :)

framer
20th Jul 2016, 10:00
On a more serious note:
From the ICAO Flight Planning and Fuel Management Manual.

Chapter 3. Prescriptive and Performance-Based Compliance with Regulation

3.1 Introduction

The development of any national regulation should take into account the overall capabilities of an authority and of the operators it oversees. In assessing such capabilities a State considers many operational factors including but not limited to:

 available infrastructure;

 capabilities of the air traffic management (ATM) system;

 availability and quality of aerodrome infrastructure and condition reporting;

 availability and quality of meteorological reporting and forecasting;

 the use of available advanced technologies and data analysis capabilities;

 operational control, flight following, flight monitoring and flight watch capabilities of individual operators.

Purely conventional and compliance-based regulatory environments are typically quite rigid and require prescriptive safety regulations to be used as administrative controls. This type of regulatory framework is supported by inspections and audits to assure regulatory compliance. Alternatively, the aim of performance-based approaches to safety is to introduce supplementary regulator and operator processes that will result in equally effective control of safety risks.
So, Prescriptive Regulation is ' You will always carry an alternate'.
Performance based Regulation is ' Your infrastructure, ATM service, Met forecasting and Met reporting, In-flight following systems, and advanced data analysis are so first class that you can get the same result by looking at the situation on the day and trusting everyone in the system to make good decisions using good info".
Is Ausi ticking all of those boxes?

sillograph
20th Jul 2016, 10:39
at least you get a TAF, better than just a metar

Capt Fathom
20th Jul 2016, 12:20
at least you get a TAF, better than just a metar

A guess verses an actual?

mates rates
22nd Jul 2016, 01:38
Just have a read of Jepps MET AU 11 Section 2 it says it all,they take no responsibility for any forecast.