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View Full Version : Referendum Sweepstake!


Sallyann1234
20th Jun 2016, 21:22
NO argument, NO discussion. Only post your predicted percentage.

I'll go for Remain by 4.5%

Edit to say: percentage is simply the difference between the two total votes.

Rosevidney1
20th Jun 2016, 21:31
I'll try LEAVE by 3%. What's the prize? Do tell!

Local Variation
20th Jun 2016, 21:33
Score draw. Remain to win on penalties.

maliyahsdad2
20th Jun 2016, 21:35
Leave win by 10% .


just adding more letters

SilsoeSid
20th Jun 2016, 21:38
Postponed.

meadowrun
20th Jun 2016, 22:16
12% Leave. (by that I mean 50 +12%)(just to be absolutely clear).


LEAVE voters.....You need your country.

G0ULI
20th Jun 2016, 22:47
70% in favour of leaving - I wish

TURIN
20th Jun 2016, 22:52
55%-45% Remain.

Go Smoke
20th Jun 2016, 23:11
Early morning security alert at a city polling station/s. polling suspended at key stations. No Vote declared. New date set. Increased time to intimidate the demos. Consequent result 3% majority Remain.

failing that 8% majority for Leave.

Gertrude the Wombat
20th Jun 2016, 23:16
Local journo asked me whether I thought Cambridge would be 60% remain or 70% remain or higher. I refused to give him a guess, for obvious reasons (he might have printed it, and I might have been wrong, and I would then look silly).


Judging from the posters and stakeboards I've seen - hundreds IN, zero OUT (oh, and one "Vote Trump") - one can't really come to any conclusion, if one quite reasonably assumes that the OUT brigade do actually exist but (like the local Tory voters) are too ashamed to admit it in public.

yellowtriumph
20th Jun 2016, 23:23
Local journo asked me whether I thought Cambridge would be 60% remain or 70% remain or higher. I refused to give him a guess, for obvious reasons (he might have printed it, and I might have been wrong, and I would then look silly).


Judging from the posters and stakeboards I've seen - hundreds IN, zero OUT (oh, and one "Vote Trump") - one can't really come to any conclusion, if one quite reasonably assumes that the OUT brigade do actually exist but (like the local Tory voters) are too ashamed to admit it in public.
I know some people who work in a respected media newsroom that would be instantly recognisable to anyone in the uk. Word there is that it's similar to the Scottish referendum, people are telling the polsters one thing but will actually do the opposite. Only time will tell, and I readily admit it's something of a catch 22 situation.

I'll simply say less than 1% between the two camps on the day.

parabellum
21st Jun 2016, 00:34
I think the decision will rest with the younger generations, (born after 1955), who have never experienced life outside the EU and will be feeling rather insecure about venturing into the unknown, which is what a 'leave' vote would mean for them.


The older generations will vote for 'let's get our country back', the rest will be frightened by suggest economic implications and feelings of possible insecurity, so will vote for 'The Devil you know'. Possibly 60/40 Remain, (unfortunately!).

PingDit
21st Jun 2016, 01:18
6% Leave....

clareprop
21st Jun 2016, 01:40
When the current 'unsures' make their decision on the day, 60:40 Remain

Cyber Bob
21st Jun 2016, 07:19
"Score draw. Remain to win on penalties" - That would be in Germany

Remain loses by an own goal

Effluent Man
21st Jun 2016, 07:21
Everyone I know apart from Mrs E is voting out. I am pretty certain that Project Fear will have a big effect. 54/46 to stay.

alwayzinit
21st Jun 2016, 07:42
52%-48% Leave

PLEASE GOD!

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 08:02
Leave : 11,784,525
Remain : 11,784,527

As far as I know, if it's close, there's no recount...

Peter-RB
21st Jun 2016, 08:04
+15% for OUT

Please:ok:

Thai Pom
21st Jun 2016, 08:09
Thanks Para I did not know I was the younger generation anymore;);)


Out to win by 2%, Cheers, TP

Gertrude the Wombat
21st Jun 2016, 08:14
As far as I know, if it's close, there's no recount...
That's what an experienced agent told me last night.

Widger
21st Jun 2016, 09:24
60% to leave against 45% to remain

Bloody EC regulations on mathematics!

Effluent Man
21st Jun 2016, 10:27
Leave : 11,784,525
Remain : 11,784,527

As far as I know, if it's close, there's no recount...

It would be interesting if it was very close. Presumably in percentage terms it would need to be less than 0.01% for anyone to seriously question the counting aspect as this would still be two thousand votes on a twenty million count.

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 10:36
My point was that if the result is really close there cannot be a recount, because there are no actual "candidates" to demand one.

Capot
21st Jun 2016, 10:46
Provided that as many as possible under-40s get out to vote for their future, to defeat the xenophobic, economically illiterate and gullible over-40s voting on behalf of the under-40s for their future................

Remain win, by 5%.

(Does anyone with a brain cell really believe that voting to leave will "stop immigration"? How did the Leave campaign manage to persuade so many that this lie is plausible?
All that leaving would do do is increase immigration from non-EU countries, ie economic migrants and asylum seekers dependant on the State as well as hundreds of thousands of workers from Asia and the Far East to replace the EU migrants, and reverse the net outflow of migrants within the EU.
Do these mor... sorry, people not understand that 2 million UK citizens work elsewhere in the EU? My son lives and works in Poland, my daughter is married to a one-time Bosnian asylum seeker who is now a UK citizen and a Professor leading and inspiring an NHS team, in Yorkshire, at the cutting edge of research into medical advances. The EU has enabled both these things to happen.)

Mike6567
21st Jun 2016, 10:47
Surely if it is really close there has to be a recount,

Does someone know the rules?

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 10:54
I don't know the rules. But who could possibly demand a recount? Cameron? Boris?

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 11:08
From the Media Handbook published by the Electoral Commission :

"The referendum rules do not provide for a national recount to be carried out in any
circumstances. Any request for a recount of votes will be at local count level and is
for the Counting Officer to determine. The referendum result is only subject to
challenge by way of judicial review."

So that's all clear then...

Toadstool
21st Jun 2016, 11:21
Project fear to beat project paranoid.

Remain by 50, 000 votes.

yotty
21st Jun 2016, 11:26
Out to win by 7.5% !

tow1709
21st Jun 2016, 11:34
Capot, that was so good you said it twice! Perhaps you ought to repeat it yet again in a much bigger font, and add "shortsighted" to your existing "... xenophobic, economically illiterate and gullible over-40s..."

Sallyann1234
21st Jun 2016, 11:50
NO argument, NO discussion. Only post your predicted percentage.
Come on folks, play the game please. If this turns into another hamsterwheel it will get locked or deleted.

yellowtriumph
21st Jun 2016, 12:08
Provided that as many as possible under-40s get out to vote for their future, to defeat the xenophobic, economically illiterate and gullible over-40s voting on behalf of the under-40s for their future................

Remain win, by 5%.

(Does anyone with a brain cell really believe that voting to leave will "stop immigration"? How did the Leave campaign manage to persuade so many that this lie is plausible?
All that leaving would do do is increase immigration from non-EU countries, ie economic migrants and asylum seekers dependant on the State as well as hundreds of thousands of workers from Asia and the Far East to replace the EU migrants.
Do these mor... sorry, people not understand that 2 million UK citizens work elsewhere in the EU, rather more than the number of EU workers in the UK? My son lives and works in Poland, my daughter is married to a refugee from the Balkan war who is now a UK citizen and a Professor leading and inspiring an NHS team, in Yorkshire, at the cutting edge of research into medical advances. The EU has enabled both these things to happen.)
Capot, who on the official leave campaign has said that a vote to leave the EU will 'stop immigration'?

If the UK votes for Brexit, your son will still be able to work in Poland, unless, the EU says he must return home. Your daughter's husband isn't going to be sent home - even if were not a UK citizen now.

I cannot really believe that you do not get the point that the official leave campaign has stated on many many occasions that a vote to leave the EU will enable us to control the number of immigrants wishing to come to the UK - no-one in the UK wishes to end immigration or emigration - Leave or Remain.

If that happens it will only be because of a vindictive, nasty reaction from the masters of the EU and if it does then that really does tell you quite a bit about them doesn't it?

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 12:23
It's frustrating that out of 35 posts so far on this thread, almost a third should have been posted here http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/572167-eu-out-hampsterwheel.html instead of here. If in doubt, read the question!

barry lloyd
21st Jun 2016, 12:37
I see David Beckham has been brought on as a substitute - no not in the fooball, though God knows we could do with him, but in the 'Remain' camp.

I predict that in the areas which are known to be in the 'out' camp, there could be problems when the votes are counted, just as there were in the Scottish Referendum. Have the fire alarms in Dundee been checked? :hmm:

The vote will be declared as 'remain' by about 5%. The EU has too much to lose by Britain leaving. There are at least three other EU countries watching this referendum very carefully, with their own thoughts of a referendum.

strake
21st Jun 2016, 12:41
Going by today's bookies odds, remain to win by 10 lengths - which sort of means 55/45.

wiggy
21st Jun 2016, 12:45
Remain to win by 2%
Chances of the arguments continuing ad nauseam after Thursday..100%

Cazalet33
21st Jun 2016, 13:28
Project Fear will win over Project Paranoia, by about 4%, but less than 50% of the registered voters will vote to stay with Brussels instead of voting for Independence.

I reckon that 38% of qualified voters will vote against independence.

There will be something of a North/South split, albeit patchy.

papajuliet
21st Jun 2016, 13:42
Contrary to what Gertrude sees in the Cambridge [?] area, my experience, here in the Midlands, is that most posters seen on my travels [ and that includes travelling from Scotland yesterday ] are for LEAVE.
I suspect that different parts of the UK are going to show large variations in the vote. It all makes for more than usual interest in following the results on Thur./Fri.

Pontius Navigator
21st Jun 2016, 15:53
2.5% remain

Pontius Navigator
21st Jun 2016, 15:57
60% to leave against 45% to remain

Bloody EC regulations on mathematics!
Going by Alan Sugar's The Apprentice where everyone pleges 110%, the result could be
115% to 105% but which way.

PAXfips
21st Jun 2016, 16:04
leave wins by 0.5% - and then postals are counted and remain takes over by 1% (*wink* austria)

Yarpy
21st Jun 2016, 16:06
It's a very difficult call.

However, thinking about the Scottish referendum the passion for LEAVE was high but the passion for REMAIN was pretty high too.

For the EU the passion for LEAVE is high but the passion for REMAIN seems pretty weak to me. It appears to be the default safe option expect it's not that safe.

Also, I do think the polls cannot be trusted. You have to agree to be polled; it's not a random sample by any means. Additionally, I think that, for a long time, it was so unfashionable to be anti EU that vast numbers of folk kept stum rather than face the flak. The political parties are very small these days and not really in touch with the electorate. I think that, in the privacy of the polling booths, lots of people will tell the EU to stick it.

My prediction:

55% LEAVE : 45% REMAIN

PDR1
21st Jun 2016, 16:22
"Score draw. Remain to win on penalties" - That would be in Germany

Remain loses by an own goal

Leave gets excluded due to hooliganism and remain wins by default.

PDR

PDR1
21st Jun 2016, 16:39
I'm not sure the polls are indicative, because I think people lie to them (cf Scottish referendum).

But the betting shops have often got it pretty well spot on, and on that basis I'm predicting a 55/45 for Remain.

PDR

Krystal n chips
21st Jun 2016, 16:55
Remain.......54%

Leave........46%

PAXfips
21st Jun 2016, 16:59
Leave : 11,784,525
Remain : 11,784,527

BBG just broke news that electorate is at 46,499,537.
So add some if you want to bet in total counts ;-).

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 17:38
I was reckoning on a 50% turnout, so that seems about right. But my (exact) figures were very much tongue in cheek.

The point has been made many times that leavers are more likely to vote than remainers; this is apparently because most leavers are over the age of 45 and historically are more likely to plod down to the polling station than the younger lot, who are mostly for staying (at home).

Let's see. It should be fascinating...

Pontius Navigator
21st Jun 2016, 17:40
We have been told to expect an 80% turn out. If that is true we would have about 900 at our station; for the police commissioner we had 145!

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 17:44
If 80% turnout is correct, then that's high. If it's true, then I predict that we will leave. Because, of that 80%, 47% will be leavers and 33% remainers.

I'm really grabbing at straws now...

PDR1
21st Jun 2016, 19:23
BBG just broke news that electorate is at 46499537

According to my GPS that puts them somewhere near Alpha Centuri. It may be handy for John Redwood's family home, but it's a bit of a walk to the polling station...

PDR

hiflymk3
21st Jun 2016, 20:23
I will be taking a friend who has Parkinsons to the polling station. She will probably vote both leave and remain on her card.

I mentioned that to her, she laughed, she's from Liverpool.

timgill
21st Jun 2016, 20:27
hiflymk3 :D

Gertrude the Wombat
21st Jun 2016, 20:44
leave wins by 0.5% - and then postals are counted and remain takes over by 1% (*wink* austria)
Postals are normally counted with in the UK, unless they do something different and special this time. In theory you don't know which way the postals went (but in practice if you're good at tallying you do).

BigEndBob
21st Jun 2016, 22:06
I will go by what people around me say they are going to vote.

75% OUT.

BUT

It will be fiddled to 52% out.

Cazalet33
21st Jun 2016, 22:11
I will be taking a friend who has Parkinsons to the polling station. She will probably vote both leave and remain on her card.

I mentioned that to her, she laughed, she's from Liverpool.

Be very careful where you park the car!

Gertrude the Wombat
21st Jun 2016, 22:23
Judging from the posters and stakeboards I've seen - hundreds IN, zero OUT ...
Hmm ... may have to revise my estimates. I've still seen zero OUT posters whilst out campaigning, and plenty more IN ones, but tonight I came across my first non-remainer. He wouldn't actually say out loud that he was voting leave, obviously still some shame left, but he was clear that he was a "non-remainer".

parabellum
21st Jun 2016, 22:42
to defeat the xenophobic, economically illiterate and gullible over-40s voting on behalf of the under-40s for their future................


A bit if ignorance combined with arrogance there Capot? We oldies know a thing or two and are far from economically illiterate, we have, after all, the benefit of experience.


Like others, I think your argument on immigration is deeply flawed.

G-CPTN
21st Jun 2016, 23:36
Interesting that tonight's debate (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07hk5h6/eu-referendum-the-great-debate) had the Remainers admitting that immigration was a problem.

Heliport
22nd Jun 2016, 00:14
I see David Beckham has been brought on as a substitute - no not in the fooball, though God knows we could do with him, but in the 'Remain' camp. Yes, saw that.
I was thinking of voting Leave but now that Beckham, a renowned geopolitical analyst, has concluded that we should remain ..... that's good enough for me.“We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone."I've heard some cynical people suggesting Beckham didn't compose that himself.
What's wrong with them? Don't they know he always talks like that?
Some even say he's so desperate for 'Sir David and Lady Beckham' he'll do anything to suck up to the Establishment.
People can be so unkind at times.

I was going to say Remain will win 55/45.
But now that the famed intellectual giant has spoken, I say Remain 90/10 win.

RedhillPhil
22nd Jun 2016, 09:47
Despite generally "profiting" from EU handouts there are very very few remain posters displayed here in west Penwith. Just about everywhere the posters read, "Vote Out".
I will be.

keyboard flier
22nd Jun 2016, 10:24
I'm going for a Leave win by a smallish margin.
As someone said to me
The Leave campaign bang on how better we will be if we are out, the Remain say how worse off we will be if we leave.
Why are the Remain not saying what the benefits are by staying? Is their campaign based on better the devil you know?

ImageGear
22nd Jun 2016, 10:36
Head or Hearts job for me - head says in, Heart says push 'em adrift.

My Heart bleeds but my Head is in...51%-49% but with all necessary power brought to bear to change the completely dysfunctional gravy train.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." with apologies to a gentleman who understood completely what it is to be British.

Imagegear

Pace
22nd Jun 2016, 13:06
say he's so desperate for 'Sir David and Lady Beckham' he'll do anything to suck up to the Establishment.
People can be so unkind at times

Hmmm

As the queen is totally against remain and for Brexit I hardly think she will reward DB for helping her demise

Heliport
22nd Jun 2016, 17:34
Even if HM is in favour of Brexit, do you really think she would veto the recommendation if it was made by the Prime Minister?

Granite City Express
22nd Jun 2016, 18:00
As the queen is totally against remain and for Brexit I hardly think she will reward DB for helping her demiseWhere do you get this utter nonsense from?


I am going for a 55% 45% Remain.

Looking at the polls, that is likely to be provided for by the Scottish vote, which is generally in favour of Remain.

Tankertrashnav
22nd Jun 2016, 18:25
Following the OP's formula - + 5% for remain

(I predicted that for the Scottish independence referendum and I wasn't far out)

Pali
22nd Jun 2016, 18:35
54.5% for remain (I hope I am wrong).

Granite City Express
22nd Jun 2016, 18:45
Even if HM is in favour of Brexit, do you really think she would veto the recommendation if it was made by the Prime Minister?Do you mean we have unelected people involved in the British political system? Crikey, does that mean we have a non-democratic system?

If Leave were to include removing HMQ and the 815 unelected members of the House of Lords from the political system, I might be able to take their arguments a bit more seriously....

pattern_is_full
22nd Jun 2016, 18:52
As an outside observer with no vote:

Leave: 50.1%
Remain: 49.9%

or vice-versa. ;)

letMfly
22nd Jun 2016, 19:16
I was going for 51% remain but after Junker's statement on "no further negotiations" I reckon it will be 52% leave.

Pace
22nd Jun 2016, 19:22
Granite City express

You obviously don't see the front pages of the press ? Like today

But we are a sovereign country with an elected Government who are supposed to decide for the wishes of the people! If we don't like what they are doing we vote that government out

A remain vote will mean ever closer union government from an unelected body in Brussels and away from the uk
You think the Queen would support that and turn her back on the history of our country ?
The only rubbish is what you are saying

Jetblu
22nd Jun 2016, 19:33
56.77% leave. [prays]

qwertyuiop
22nd Jun 2016, 19:41
Hmm ... may have to revise my estimates. I've still seen zero OUT posters whilst out campaigning, and plenty more IN ones, but tonight I came across my first non-remainer. He wouldn't actually say out loud that he was voting leave, obviously still some shame left, but he was clear that he was a "non-remainer".
I'm not sure it was shame.
I was recently approached by "pollsters" and asked my views. I replied leave and was subject to a torrent of abuse.
I learnt along time ago that the political left have no tolerance to opposing views and the remain camp seem very similar.

Gertrude the Wombat
22nd Jun 2016, 19:43
You obviously don't see the front pages of the press ?
What, some tabloid making stuff up again? After they've already been told not to? And you believe them??? - boggle.

timgill
22nd Jun 2016, 19:45
OK.

58.75% leave
41.25% stay

Sallyann, if I win (or get close) do I get a prize? After all, it's a sweepstake.

As you're the OP, I think we should be told...

Mike6567
22nd Jun 2016, 19:45
From experiece of the surprise results of 1970 1992 and 2015
53% leave 47% remain

Blink182
22nd Jun 2016, 20:34
3.5 % Win for Leave

Kitbag
22nd Jun 2016, 21:08
2.7% in favour of remain.

Above The Clouds
22nd Jun 2016, 21:47
2.5% to leave.

Thats if large numbers of the voters postal votes don't somehow disappear :oh:

Granite City Express
22nd Jun 2016, 22:58
Thats if large numbers of the voters postal votes don't somehow disappear
Ask Ruth Davidson, she seemed to know all about them in the Scottish referendum...

Tankertrashnav
22nd Jun 2016, 23:13
NO argument, NO discussion. Only post your predicted percentage.

That was always a vain hope, Sallyann :*

Sallyann1234
23rd Jun 2016, 07:49
I suppose so. Some people always know better :ugh:

SASless
23rd Jun 2016, 13:38
52/48 Leave.

Scotland 54/46 Leave the UK.

timgill
23rd Jun 2016, 13:40
So... how's it going? Anyone know?

andytug
23rd Jun 2016, 13:48
I'll go for 60/40 leave in rural areas and opposite in cities, give or take a couple of %. Remain to win by a nose and the arguing to continue ad nauseum.
Politics has finally become indistinguishable from religion, including the intolerance, shouting and inability to listen to any other point of view. I increasingly despair of people.

Pace
23rd Jun 2016, 13:52
Seeing that the FTSE has shot up to above 6300 the highest for some time I reckon the markets have decided remain will happen! sadly
It will be short term gain and relief for long term pain decision and a missed opportunity to make changes to secure the UK from a lot of damage that will occur from our membership of the existing EU structure but it will be what it will be an opportunity thrown away through fear

Yarpy
23rd Jun 2016, 15:36
A colleague in the city told me today that the hedge funds have been conducting their own private polling and that these clearly show a REMAIN result.

What intrigues me is what polling techinique are they using that they can trust in order to make investment decisions?

Why are the other polls showing the vote so close???

andytug
23rd Jun 2016, 15:39
A colleague in the city told me today that the hedge funds have been conducting their own private polling and that these clearly show a REMAIN result.

What intrigues me is what polling techinique are they using that they can trust in order to make investment decisions?

Why are the other polls showing the vote so close???

Maybe they're only polling employees of hedge funds?

PDR1
23rd Jun 2016, 16:56
FWIW the betting shops are currently predicting an 83% probability of a Remain result (up from 74% yesterday) - this is presumed to be based on people placing bets either after voting or after coming to a final decision.

OTOH Michael Gove is predicting a final result of 85/68% in favour of Leave, because he demands that all voters should be above average...

:)

PDR

Super VC-10
23rd Jun 2016, 18:33
Brexit 51.5% - 48.5%

timgill
23rd Jun 2016, 19:05
Sallyann - when will you announce the result of your sweepstake?

Non-Driver
23rd Jun 2016, 19:18
OTOH Michael Gove is predicting a final result of 85/68% in favour of Leave, because he demands that all voters should be above average...

:)

PDR

11/10 for that sir !

Lon More
23rd Jun 2016, 19:45
England and Wales 51-49 leave
Scotland and N Íreland 60 40 Remain

Gertrude the Wombat
23rd Jun 2016, 19:46
What intrigues me is what polling techinique are they using that they can trust in order to make investment decisions?
Well, if you replace "make investment decisions" by the more accurate "gamble" then basing their decisions on pretty well any information at all is doing better than most gamblers.


And unlike the country, if they lose today never mind - they might win the next gamble.

Yarpy
23rd Jun 2016, 19:52
GTW:

Re: Well, if you replace "make investment decisions" by the more accurate "gamble" then basing their decisions on pretty well any information at all is doing better than most gamblers.

It has crossed my mind that there is a bit of market manipulation going on here.

Yes? No?

Sallyann1234
23rd Jun 2016, 19:53
timgill
When the official result is announced.

Gertrude the Wombat
23rd Jun 2016, 20:05
It has crossed my mind that there is a bit of market manipulation going on here.

Yes? No?
Sure; if you're good at it a rigged market beats pure gambling every time :D:ok::rolleyes:

Super VC-10
24th Jun 2016, 06:21
Results now in.

Leave 17,410,742
Remain 16,141,241

Sallyann1234
24th Jun 2016, 08:40
3.5 % Win for Leave

Blink182 :)