Get out of aviation before you lose everything [Archive]

Dick Smith

9th Mar 2016, 03:14

I’d like to re-emphasise what I’ve told many people and that is there is no light on the horizon and many tens of millions of dollars more is going to be lost in general aviation in this county before anything is done about it.

I’ve just returned from a trip in the Caravan from Bankstown to Mornington Island and back. Basically every airport is dead, I see a totally dying GA industry.

To show you how bad it is, I’m trying to get rid of my aircraft. I put the CJ3 on the market about 6 months ago when one of the aircraft of about the same hours sold for about US $4.6 million. Since then I have reduced the price twice, now to US $3.9 million and can’t get any takers.

One of the problems is the high cost of fitting ADSB in Australia and also a flight data recorder, both unique Australian requirements. The prime reason I’m selling the aircraft is if you get a minor fault – let’s say the mercury battery in the FMS goes flat, the aircraft is grounded for many weeks as Collins no longer have a presence in Australia and so the unit has to be sent to the USA for repair. This is going to happen more and more. I couldn’t even get the Winslow life raft serviced here and had to spend over US $3,000 shipping it as dangerous goods to Singapore.

I had a meeting with the Director of Aviation Safety at CASA, Mark Skidmore when he first started over a year ago and gave him a list of about 20 items, some truly simple to fix, many of which could save money for the industry. In the intervening year not one item has been addressed, I haven’t even received a phone call from anyone as CASA to ask about any of the ideas.

The OneSKY project is most likely going to be a disaster with hundreds of millions of dollars being written off and charged to the industry.

The ADSB requirement for all aircraft that fly in cloud, coming in next year is unique in the world – no other country has deemed that to be affordable. It’s pretty clear that Airservices under Sir Angus Houston will not budge on this mandate, even though they have maximised profits by not putting in many ADSB ground stations.

When Warren Truss actually leaves the Parliament, he’ll be praised by both sides of politics on what a great person and politician he is. This will give a message to any other politician how to act in an important folio like transport.

That is do nothing.

Take my advice now and get out before you lose even more.

peterc005

9th Mar 2016, 04:05

Not really sure a CJ3 falls under GA. It's an expensive toy and like other luxury items like Ferraris they are a lot easier to buy than to sell. If it was a C172 it would have probably sold in a couple of weeks.

I'm going to pull you up on a few points:

1) Looking at the AFAP website there seems to be more jobs and better jobs recently than I can remember. Looks like another hiring boom is firing up.

2) Some areas of the industry, notable training for international airline pilots, seem to be strong.

3) RAA seems to be successful at being a lower cost entry point for weekend pilots.

4) ADSB seems to be an obvious upgrade, with benefits for both ATC and situational awareness. The costs you have quoted in the past are not really indicative of typical GA. To buy and get a LAME to install a Trig 31 ADSB transponder in my plane will cost less than $5k.

You might be happier with something like a new C206 instead of the CJ3. You'd certainly get to enjoy the scenery more.

CaptainMidnight

9th Mar 2016, 04:08

Said Hanrahan - John O'Brien (http://users.tpg.com.au/dandsc/job/job01.htm)

Dick Smith

9th Mar 2016, 04:18

Peter. It's when I hear that flying school owners are taking second mortgages on their house that I get worried for them.

And many ADSB prices are far higher than what you are quoting.

Yes pilots are being forced into ultralights due to the increasing costs of VH aircraft.

Bit like forcing Aussie families from cars onto motor scooters.

Many flying schools have closed down right across the country.

Andy_RR

9th Mar 2016, 04:37

The chronic current account deficit tells you where this country is headed. Nothing in the black for 40 years and quarter after quarter of record (negative) numbers.

No wonder there's no money for life in the clouds. You'd need ADS-B for politician avoidance there anyway...

Frank Arouet

9th Mar 2016, 04:59

peter: You may not have noticed, but people are bailing out of Recreational aircraft as well.

Regarding the definitions, there are more expensive GA aircraft around than a CJ3. One was quiet regularly flown into the upper atmosphere by Adelaide University without probably the benefit of ADSB.

I won't bother discussing your peculiarities and difficulty dealing with people with bigger and better toys than your little 2 seater, (even if it is quasi NVFR), than to say your previous posts give you away.

Dick, you say "The OneSKY project is most likely going to be a disaster with hundreds of millions of dollars being written off and charged to the industry" and I agree but add, shortly there won't be an industry to charge these excesses to. What will Skidmore et al do then when the cash is tap is turned off?

As an aside, has anybody else sought to find out more with the change of scenery from CAsA to AsA by one... Mr Chambers. It must be good to change ships mid ocean before the storm for better silver service. I say this to keep in favor with my Socialist friends who see only the working class or their brothers in the public service of any consequence in the big scheme of things.

ramble on

9th Mar 2016, 05:03

It saddens me that we seem to have become a society of short term profit and greed. Growth and develpoment at all costs, profit is king.

Anything attractive to big business (infrastructure assets, pretty environmental locations and our people) are exploited and over run for profit & greed rather than be protected for the future.

Public infrastructure airports, roads, bridges, rail, shipping, and all of their associated administration should be non-profit government run.

Rather than a mining tax, how about a "Bank Tax". They are all rolling in billions of dollars of profit.

Runaway Gun

9th Mar 2016, 06:11

Dick, you aren't the only one that CASA ignores.
It seems to be their MO to simply ignore requests for information, whether asked by mail, email or telephone calls.
I've been waiting nine months for even an acknowledgement for my own requests- let alone an answer.

But they are very fast to withdraw my funds...

Band a Lot

9th Mar 2016, 06:12

Other than tax write off of the likes Wastpac Rescue,

I do not think any of our banks own a aircraft in Australia, but pretty sure other countries will have private jets for executives to blast around in.

AmarokGTI

9th Mar 2016, 06:31

I was at Coober Pedy yesterday and there were 7 aircraft movements within 20 minutes. 6 turboprop. GA was dead on your trip. But is it now alive and well again? That's how everyone reacts. A mate loses a job, and we all think the industry is dead. The big Q announce they will need people, and we're chatting about great "movement" up the ladder, freeing up gigs lower down for young pilots.

Sorry to hear your jet didn't sell on day one.

Take my advice.
Stop posting about how hard life is because you can't sell your multi million dollar jet. You are alienating people in the industry who work their *%#% off for a daily wage lower than your landing fee.

Arm out the window

9th Mar 2016, 07:01

Don't bother arguing, :ok:just sit back and enjoy another Dick Headline!

Band a Lot

9th Mar 2016, 07:19

Can you give a bit more info?

I was at Coober Pedy yesterday and there were 7 aircraft movements within 20 minutes. 6 turboprop.

AmarokGTI

9th Mar 2016, 07:29

Can you give a bit more info?

I was at Coober Pedy yesterday and there were 7 aircraft movements within 20 minutes. 6 turboprop.

1 PC12
1 Air Tractor
1 B200
1 E120
1 SF34
1 Aerostar (sorry, accidentally counted as turbo prop)
1 R44

Maybe Coober needs ATC?
The PC12 and Aerostar were head on on the ground, runway blocked, E120 went around, etc. Maybe we should invest Dick's $3.9million into regional SA?

(I'm not seriously suggesting Coober needs ATC)

Aussie Bob

9th Mar 2016, 07:30

Don't bother arguing, :ok:just sit back and enjoy another Dick Headline!

About the response I would expect from you too AOTW :sad:

I gather you have only been in the industry 5 minutes? Those with a bit more time have noted the decline that seems proportionate to the increase in regulation and cost. Have you seen what an AOC will cost you these days? Once it was free. Have you checked out any major airport that once supported several GA business and noted that there are now none?

Stop posting about how hard life is because you can't sell your multi million dollar jet. You are alienating people in the industry who work their *%#% off for a daily wage lower than your landing fee.

Doesn't alienate me at all. If it alienates you, it merely reflects your business acumen.

AmarokGTI

9th Mar 2016, 07:47

Doesn't bother me - I've met Dick. I'm used to the nonsense.

What I mean by that - everything about Dick is posed as if it's for the good of everyone else, but evidently on here it generally just relates back to self interest.

For example... "Australian aviation is too expensive..it's terrible..for example no one wants to pay me more than $3.9 million for the jet that I am trying to sell"

Frank Arouet

9th Mar 2016, 08:21

CAsA lack of response?

I've always fund them quick to enter into action. They are understanding, helpful, honest, flexible, polite and generous to a fault.

Unfortunately I'm not in the club so all that doesn't pertain to me.

onehitwonder

9th Mar 2016, 08:22

How many flying schools are there now?

How many charter operators are there now?

Quote these numbers against this time last year, now and in 12 months. The numbers will astound you.

And for those that are still around, costs are being cut and trading terms being extended. But wait there is more.....

Dick Smith

9th Mar 2016, 08:29

Wow. Some people are dense. I am not complaining about not being able to sell my CJ. Just using it as an example of what is happening.

I am fortunate. I don't need to sell the aircraft. But I know others who are being forced into dire financial circumstances.

Band a Lot

9th Mar 2016, 08:42

OK what part of this is Gov or closing down deals.

1 PC12 = cops/RFDS or AACOpany
1 Air Tractor- was it fire or spreading stuff?
1 B200 RFDS ? or government?
1 E120 - that was my private trip sorry
1 SF34 =that was my private trip sorry
1 Aerostar (sorry, accidentally counted as turbo prop) = life short lived
1 R44 , know nothing about choppers sorry.

peterc005

9th Mar 2016, 09:03

@Dick

$4,100 for a Trig 31, which looks like a really good unit and meets all of the requirements

Trig TT31 Mode S Transponder (http://www.ozpilot.com.au/Transponders/Trig-TT31-Mode-S-Transponder/p-103-1062/)

The Trig 31 slides into the existing mounting tray.

The Avionics LAME estimates less than $1,000 to fit the unit, including the Engineering Order and testing.

My old Narco 150 is on it's last legs and has been causing problems with ATC and needs replacement anyway.

To upgrade to a new Mode C transponder would cost ~$4,000, so spending $5,000 on an ADSB unit makes sense.

Nulli Secundus

9th Mar 2016, 09:17

Just for the record, anyone telling you need to get out now before you lose even more is, by default, proposing someone else must get in.

You simply can't have a seller without a buyer. That's correct isn't it Dick?

So the new buyer becomes the next loser. I think the term is ponzi scheme.

Is this really all you've got Dick?

Horatio Leafblower

9th Mar 2016, 09:18

Peter, I assume you already have a TSO 146 GNSS source in your aircraft?

If not, add $15-20k for a suitable unit.

peterc005

9th Mar 2016, 10:53

@HL, yes there is a GPS in the plane.

GPS encoders are getting cheaper anyway and I notice some less expensive ones have the option of an inbuilt GPS encoder.

My opinion is that some of the costs mentioned in earlier posts are not representative.

The benefits of ADSB are apparent to me and are comparable with the jump from radio-based navaids to GNSS.

Fred Gassit

9th Mar 2016, 11:22

When I can escape the day job my friends and I mess around building and flying home built aircraft. Engines (experimental admittedly but still lycoming) and props cost about what they did when I entered the game 25 years ago. A lot of the other hardware (starters/alternators etc) has never been cheaper.
There is barely a transponder in sight, and VFR will get you there 80% of the time...(wasn't Alaska once home to the lowest proportion of instrument rated pilots in USA?)
There are half a dozen of us within a block or two in our little backwoods town and many more in each town over.
The regulator leaves us alone (more or less) and with the good work of a few people can generally be persuaded to give us what we want.
I feel for business in GA, I've been in there most of my working life and concede it's getting a lot harder but I don't concede that aviation is dying, possibly a better hobby than career choice tho..
The way some of you get together and carp on here I'm starting to think you want it to fail.

gerry111

9th Mar 2016, 12:36

I'm not a regular visitor to YCBP but was there on 23rd January this year. The attraction to refuel there is simply the price! And the lovely new wider RWY!

Pleasingly, there was a Cirrus and a couple of Cessna's parked there. A Moonie dropped in on a ferry from W.A. to Coffs Harbour whilst we refuelled.

gerry111

9th Mar 2016, 12:52

"Peter. It's when I hear that flying school owners are taking second mortgages on their house that I get worried for them."

Of course you would, Dick.

For that would far outweigh any self interest that you may have.

gerry111

9th Mar 2016, 13:09

P.S. Was the Aerostar at YCBP from William Creek? Perhaps Trevor doing yet another raid on the Avgas bowser?

LeadSled

9th Mar 2016, 13:27

Folks,
Just have a look at the decline in avgas sales, and the decline in CAR 30 MROs, that tells the story.
Tootle pip!!

Dick Smith

9th Mar 2016, 21:46

Gerry. I have never said there is anything wrong about self interest. In fact it drives the human condition.

But can you describe the self interest involved when I warn people to get out before they lose everything?

Maybe you are judging me on what you would do in similar circumstances. Always a great mistake.

mattyj

10th Mar 2016, 01:06

We fly our bizjet around the Pacific on air ambulance and we need to fit the requirements of FAA, EASA, NZ and CASA for avionics. It cost considerably more to get it future proofed including ADSB and TCAS RVSM etc for all the territory's we operate in. We needed a 50 something parameter data/voice recorder and we now find New Caledonia and Tahiti require TCAS 7.1 instead of the 7.0 we got..point is, your CJ would be a lot more attractive if it qualifies for everywhere and approval from an authority to operate RNP-1 arrivals wouldn't hurt either

AmarokGTI

10th Mar 2016, 01:35

Yes to the question about the Aerostar at Coober.

Ex FSO GRIFFO

10th Mar 2016, 01:43

Question -
Does one need an 'engineering order' to fit a 'slide in replacement' transponder?

i.e. the Trig TT31 Mode S is touted as "fitting the same mounting tray as the popular KT76A/C..."
No EO req'd to slide in another unit surely...???

Or is the EO for a possible new antenna?
Why would not the new antenna simply fit into the hole where the 'old one' was?
EO req'd..???

And if there is a cable connection from the present installed GPS unit in the aircraft, does this not supply a sufficient GPS info to the txpdr? (VFR acft.)

I know this is PPRuNe, but 'sane / intelligent' answers only pleeeze, I'm getting too old for this crap....!!!

Cheers:confused:

Old Akro

10th Mar 2016, 02:29

fitting the same mounting tray

This NOT necessarily the same as slide-in slide out. It may fit the same tray, but the electrical connector at the rear may be different. You really need to look at the install instructions for both and the pin out diagrams.

Our ADS-B installation had about $2,500 of EO's. In the US, The FAA has waived some of its requirements to try and make ADS=-B fitment cheaper - but not our CASA.

Old Akro

10th Mar 2016, 02:31

Was the Aerostar at YCBP from William Creek?

You would't believe the amount Tay gets around in that with charters.

Dick Smith

10th Mar 2016, 02:32

Re the GPS. CASA has mandated the most expensive form of gps to operate with ADSB as a minimum. This is not so in other countries where an existing gps can most often be used.

Remember most ex military people have never ever paid go anything substantial in aviation.

Old Akro

10th Mar 2016, 03:25

Ex-FSO

I only answered one of your questions:

1. As I noted previously, some avionics manufacture advertise things as using the same tray - inferring slide-in slide-out, but in fact they require a rear connector change and sometimes even a change to the avioincs locking device (ie through screw)

2. WAAS GPS needs not only a new antennae but also new cabling. I THINK that the WAAS GPS antennae is slightly larger too. I would't guarantee that the WAAS one will be bolt in.

3. ADSB requires a C146a GPS input (ie WAAS) and does not allow C129a input. As Dick has noted, this is partly because CASA are taking a very purist technical approach.

4. ADSB requires a "grey scale" output altitude encoder. Unless you altitude encoder is relatively new; you will need one of those too. This will probably require new bracketry and additional wiring and may trigger a static system test.

One of the problems with the CASA regulations is that (unlike the FAA) there is no definition of "minor modifications". Therefore, strictly speaking, everything requires an EO.

Ex FSO GRIFFO

10th Mar 2016, 03:31

Thankyou Mr OA,

I see that I will have to 'open eyes a little wider' and get around the 'spin'.
Ta Muchly.

Cheers:ok:

Ex FSO GRIFFO

10th Mar 2016, 03:40

'Aye Aye' Dick,

Am well aware of the 'non-commercial' considerations of the 'ex military' approach...see my post #92 in your Ballina post......

Cheers for now...:ok:

Rich-Fine-Green

10th Mar 2016, 04:43

I have to agree wth Dick on this one.
It's never been tougher to be in GA.
Years ago it was common to rub shoulders with Tradies, Teachers, Police and office workers at flight schools. GA now is out of reach for many.
I really miss my past career in GA but I'm fortunate I got out at the right time.
It wouldn't take much. A slightly better write-off to encourage newer aircraft.
A regulator that is commercially aware that safety outcomes can be achieved without destroying an industry.
New Zealand, Canada and the USA have user-friendly regulators.
CASA is more like a European regulator.

1a sound asleep

10th Mar 2016, 05:33

GA is overburdened with bureaucracy and is seen as a cash cow in many places. When I started flying (ok last century) GA was seen as an essential service/industry in a vast huge country, the same way as buses are in big cities.

Over the decades it has become to be seen that if you are in GA you are a "rich kid with daddy's money" and of course nothing is further from the truth.

There are no more affordable new aircraft which is exasperating the problem. OF course there are some in niche GA operation still making good money.

I think Dick's advice is relevant and perhaps better worded as "Get out of aviation before you lose everything - UNLESS you have a very niche market"

Sunfish

10th Mar 2016, 20:54

A simple test is to examine and compare Australias GDP with the performance of the GA sector.

GDP growth is around 3% p.a. on average across developed economies (I wont go into why because its long and involved).

One would therefore expect that a gander at commercial RPT passenger numbers should show something like 3% growth on a long term average, flying hours and sectors flown may not show much change since the schedules themselves don't change much.

Now if we go to GA there should be a similar 3% annual growth figure there somewhere, if there is not then DIck is right, GA is going backwards.

To put that another way, new GA aircraft should be adding to the fleet, more flying hours, more pilots and more LAMES every year. If GA isn't growing then by definition its dead.

12-47

12th Mar 2016, 00:30

Interesting table with a 10 year data series here;
General Aviation (http://bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/general_aviation.aspx#anc_summary)

It's clearly a volatile data set, but private flying is down 5% on 2003 levels! That was 2013 data (the height of the mining and ergo national income boom). Could be worse now.

Business aviation hours down 10% on 2003 levels and 15% down from peak 2008 levels.

Training well down.

Aerial Work and Charter outperforming compared to the others.

The ex-regional totals for GA over the 10 years aren't that flattering. Looking at the bookends, about a 6% rise over 10 years, but down about 7% from peak.

It has definitely lagged GDP growth over the last 10 years, which averaged 3.5%, despite the biggest mining boom in our history and household wealth (and debt levels!) rapidly increasing. By comparison Domestic/Regional ASKs have grown by over 50% during the same period. Activity at the big end of town certainly didn't suffer the same fate.

If it looks dead and smells dead........

Frank Arouet

12th Mar 2016, 08:07

A 5% reduction in GA and a 10% reduction in business aviation probably equates to a measureable safety improvement of 15% overall. CAsA deserve a pay rise.

Safe skies are empty skies!

gerry111

12th Mar 2016, 12:47

"Safe skies are empty skies!"

All the better for those of us in GA who are still prepared to fly VFR in VMC.

And to spend rather serious money in order to do so. :ooh:

Sunfish

12th Mar 2016, 18:42

further to my post regarding GDP and the health of GA, if there is a snapshot of employment in the industry and revenues, then it is possible to extrapolate exactly what the economic cost to Australia has been of CASAs complete misregulation.

ramble on

15th Mar 2016, 01:18

This is link from a Jet Blast post by Dea Certe in the Trump thread worth read.....very similar situation here.

'superpredators'!!

"This is from TruthDig. An artical by Chris Hedges

Chris Hedges: The Graveyard of the Elites - Chris Hedges - Truthdig

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_graveyard_of_the_elites_20160228

I think it sums up the state of things very well."

flyinkiwi

15th Mar 2016, 02:08

New Zealand, Canada and the USA have user-friendly regulators.

I nearly spat my coffee out.

The New Zealand regulator you refer to is the same regulator who decided when the airlines got wind of the fact they were funding private pilot medicals decided that the best way to recoup said funding was to divide the shortfall by the existing number of class I and II medicals and charge accordingly.

For me, a weekend day VFR pilot, having to cough up ~NZ$300 just to buy the right to be examined came as a bit of a shock. But I just sucked it up and got on with it, despite that now I am older than 40 I need to redo my medical every 24 months. But I am in the minority. When I got my last medical done, the nurse was saying that the number of class II medicals being issued by the outfit I go to has plummeted (nice pun there) as private pilots are going to the RPL and cheaper medical costs or simply walking away from flying. The ONLY reason I haven't gone down the RPL road is, I like to carry more than one passenger to help offset costs.

While you might think the grass is greener over here, it's really just the cow manure.