What happens to UK aviation if UK votes to leave the European Union?

[fairflyer]

What happens to UK aviation if UK votes to leave the European Union?

So, June 23rd, the UK votes to leave the European Union, we have a few years of transition and negotiations and then we face the consequences.

There must be a multitude of implications for the UK aviation industry as a whole, but more interested here in private and business aviation - GA. Assuming we are still compliant with EASA requirements when operating a UK-registered aircraft, but a non-EU country, what impact may that have on border protocols, passenger inconvenience, taxes, duties, security protocols, screening, aircraft import, export, leases, financing, legal and contractual matters etc.

Exchange rates will definitely shift and global industry players will either see the UK as a complete pain in the proverbial or a great hub to centre their European aspirations, perhaps? Will Air Passenger Duty (APD) go or stay? Where will it place us on our emissions regulations? Will we have more restrictive noise limitations, or less? Will the extensive use of aircraft registers of convenience be extended or curtailed if we are out – IoM, Jersey, Guernsey, Malta etc.

The list is endless really.

So, bottom line, will bailing out of the EU likely be better or worse for the UK-based business aviation sector? Or, more or less convenient, more or less costly for overseas visitors in private/business aircraft coming to the UK? Will we see an exodus of UK-based operators (or their aircraft) back into the EU, or onto EU registers?

Thoughts and commentary are welcome. The clock is now ticking.

[His dudeness]

Switzerland is not part of the EU. Think they are doing a-okay...

[CEQforever]

G-reg private aircraft operating on an AOC and flying largely within continental EU will probably start switching to EI-, OE-, 9H- etc, if traffic right restrictions start causing problems.

Much like EZY who'll have to consider an EU AOC for inner-EU ops.

All non-AOC G-reg aircraft will remain largely unaffected and maybe even better off....

[dboy]

Will it have an effect/impact on non uk pilots applying in the uk for a job?

[Chilli Monster]

Will it have an effect/impact on non uk pilots applying in the uk for a job?

Yes - if you're an EU citizen you'll lose your automatic right to employment in the UK. You'll need to apply for a work visa.

[Global_Global]

Switzerland is not part of the EU. Think they are doing a-okay...

Well there is one major difference: the Swiss still meet most of the EU regulations and this has grown over time. If the UK leaves the EU they will go back to square one.... Every single treaty rule and regulation will have to be renegotiated and this will take years... In the mean time this will mean that a lot of companies will leave the UK pronto! :hmm:

As London is not England I think that Boris made a BIG error as London has the most to loose... On the up side I can probably afford a house in London after the Brexit :E

[His dudeness]

G_G, maybe, but I think the Eurokings - Juncker etc - will not allow the loot go to someone else. Meaning: they will do any and everything to keep the Brits in and IF this fails, they will give em a lot of leeway.

Just imagine the amount of Polish and Hungarian etc working in the UK - if they flood back unemployed, the whole thing will implode pronto. And thats just the tip of the iceberg.

[Son of a Beech]

It wouldn't necessarily change anything. Even if the UK leaves the EU, they would still have a trade agreement like Switzerland, Iceland and Norway have today via the EFTA. All three these countries are not EU member but are EASA member.

As far as labour goes, I think the UK has enough problems finding pilots for their aircraft. And if you fly for BA, Easy etc, you can have an EU base and still fly on an UK AOC. There are plenty Emirate pilots with AMS, FRA, LHR base that fly on an Emirate AOC.

[fairflyer]

I think if anyone assumes we can renegotiate new bilateral agreements, trade agreements, compliance agreements etc. within a year or two and everything will be much the same as it is today, needs their head examining. Nobody has ever LEFT the EU before - this is all new.

Assume more paperwork than you could possibly imagine, more than the EU already develops, and a decade or more before we all know where the land lies.

It will be chaos for years.

[His dudeness]

It will be chaos for years

You mean more than there is already ?

[ShyTorque]

There's a certain Chief HOI at Gatwick who will probably want to top himself if he has to re-write the rules yet again.... :p

[Son of a Beech]

If the good people of the U.K. vote to leave the EU I'm pretty sure that the government is not so stupid to leave the EU for a new trade and cooperation agreement is in place. Not even they are so suicidial.

P.s. I'm not British

[flyboy1818]

It will be great for us Brits if they kick all the foreign Pilots out of the U.K! Think of all us Brits coming home from the sandpit and Europe to fly for BA......A job for all British Pilots with BA or at least TAG is part of the deal if we leave right?:E

[Ihadadream]

Son Of A Beech - All Emirates pilots have the same base - DXB

[bosnich71]

Didn't British registered aircraft use to fly to the Continent well before this EU nonsense?
Other than between 1939 and 1945 of course.

[Romaro]

It's not insignificant that Ryanair, Easyjet and all the others want the UK to stay in the EU, as do all the airports (in the UK). They've done the homework, all the 'freedoms to fly', cabotage rules etc. start coming into play, rules and regs start getting ambiguous, it's not going to be a simple transition, it will be a staggering pain in the backside for a huge number of pen-pushers.

[controlx]

I can see a pile of UK business moving offices at least to the likes of Dublin, with just 12.5% corporation tax an added advantage. Might be some other odd moves - say Latvia or Lithuania, again, very low corporation tax, low labour rates for an MRO operation too, indeed any staff. Aircraft will be placed on EU flags of convenience, the UK CAA will have little to do anymore as all the AOC operations will be out of their jurisdiction....

[Pace]

Naaa easy really we will just overnight attach to the USA incorporate FAA rules and away we go ! No worries

Thinking about it we could sign up to being an independent state of the USA instead open up USA airbases in the UK like we used to have so security not an issue! Incorporate USA immigration and work requirements

What's the hassle ? If you jump out of bed with one just jump into bed with another :ok:

[sellbydate]

How about the UK taking the lead on setting up a new Euro-club, 'EU2' with those outside of the Euro Zone or not in the EU at all, so say UK, Switzerland,Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland etc., all the free trade stuff but none of the rest of the red-tape. If we're really desperate for more mates to join our new club, then bring in all the odd-balls, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzecovina, Moldova, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania, Andorra, San Marino, Armenia and hey the Vatican City!

Once any of the Eurozone members want to follow the UK's lead and swap members clubs, the rest will tumble like a pack of cards and we'll end up with a new EU2 with all the benefits and none of the disadvantages.

Good to have some competition.

[Avioactive]

The UK will need to establish the same sort of EEA agreement that grants Norway access to the EU's internal market.


From the 23,000 EU laws currently in force, the Norway EEA has incorporated around 5,000 (in force), meaning that Norway is subject to roughly 21% of EU law. This arrangement facilitates free movement of goods, capital, services and people between the EU and EFTA members.


Free movement of goods means freedom from customs fees, where however food and beverage is excluded (because those are susidised by the EU). Free movement of people means freedom of workers to travel between the non-EU country (Norway or maybe the UK) and EU, however Norway is a part of the Schengen area and the UK is not. Bit of a challenge there for starters.


So, somebody needs to sift through those 23,000 EU laws after June 23rd and pick out the ones we need to adopt, to continue to trade unconstrained with our EU friends.


Volunteers?

[Cambridge172]

Well if the UK Pound (Sterling) goes down to US$1.15 as predicted by a number of banks, none of us will be able to afford to fly overseas anyway and the Jet A1 fuel price which is based globally in US Dollar terms will be bad news for UK-based operators. Continental European operators will have an easier time than UK-based ones both in terms of costs and access rights and border controls for UK citizens overseas will change in some capacity, which definitely won't make our lives easier - more red tape and more delays

[fairflyer]

Goldman Sachs have issued the most dovish prediction, stating that, ‘We argue that, if the UK voted to leave the EU, the UK’s current account deficit would still be a source of vulnerability despite some recent improvement. An abrupt and total interruption to incoming capital flows in response to a ‘Brexit’ could see the Pound decline by as much as 15-20%.’

So, what's the impact to UK-based operators if the pound is weakened by 15-20%?

[Global_Global]

How about the UK taking the lead on setting up a new Euro-club, 'EU2' with those outside of the Euro Zone or not in the EU at all, so say UK, Switzerland,Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland etc., The thing that you dont understand is that most of the countries you mention are working to the same EU rules and regulations already to trade with the EU and most have no interest what so ever to rock the boat. Interestingly I can think of 5 things that are issues for the UK: NHS, border control (immigration), rules from the EU, housing, the European court of human rights, devolution. Now let's look at all of them:


NHS: a UK issue that UK has messed up for years
border control: a UK issue that will get worse as all Customs posts will be moved back to mainland UK
Rules from the EU: most rules will still apply if you want to trade with Europe (see Switzerland)
Housing shortage: an internal UK thing that the past and current UK governments!
European court of Human rights: this is not eu related and would still be applicable as it was ratified by the UK in the late 50s
Devolution: the Scots will join the EU as fast as possible and the EU will be happy for them to join. England? Well that is a country that is not so welcome if alone to ensure that all the big firms in London move to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin first! Wales: as the biggest recipient of EU subsidies has an interest to get back in asap. Northern Ireland... joining the other Ireland??? http://www.ibtimes.com/what-would-brexit-mean-northern-ireland-peace-uk-european-union-referendum-looms-2016-2244089

So what is to gain? :rolleyes: But hey let's go and shout stupid stuff... It works for Trump! :}

[Winniebago]

Interesting to see that only 2% of 900 member companies of Aerospace sector ADS group were in favour of Brexit and the rest want to stay in. That would unquestionably seem to indicate that with the UK airports, airline and aerospace sectors vastly in favour of staying in Europe, Brexit would be a bad idea for other bits of aviation? I haven't seen a single word to suggest that leaving Europe would certainly be good for UK aviation, but plenty to say it could be bad and many commentaries that really don't know.

[dboy]

Well, let's hope the UK votes for the Brexit, an advice of an european guy.

The EU is simply a failed project, on the edge of bankrupt. Got the news today that Europe is standing with the trousers on the ankles, bending forward and nailed by Turkey. Selling their souls. Unbelievable. But if it is about ruling bitching, then the EU is standing their with their finger within 5 secs. I am really thinking to leave my country and to move to another country.....UK perhaps???

Trust me British forum guys...you are very well off without EU!!!!!

[Son of a Beech]

Well, let's hope the UK votes for the Brexit, an advice of an european guy.

The EU is simply a failed project, on the edge of bankrupt. Got the news today that Europe is standing with the trousers on the ankles, bending forward and nailed by Turkey. Selling their souls. Unbelievable. But if it is about ruling bitching, then the EU is standing their with their finger within 5 secs. I am really thinking to leave my country and to move to another country.....UK perhaps???

Trust me British forum guys...you are very well off without EU!!!!!

Ironically. If the UK would leave the EU you wouldn't be welcome to the UK anymore. That's one of the reasons some of the people in the UK want to leave the EU. To keep the foreigners out. 😂😂😂

[dboy]

Ironically. If the UK would leave the EU you wouldn't be welcome to the UK anymore. That's one of the reasons some of the people in the UK want to leave the EU. To keep the foreigners out. 😂😂😂


YES, and they are right. I was just saying this so to speak. But it shows a feeling how a lot more people in EU are feeling about this EU circus.

[His dudeness]

Well one of the fundamental flaws of the EU is the different treatment / rulings etc that are allowed for states.

Look at the 3% rule for the Euro... first one to blast right through that one was Germany, the very people that put that rule in. The UK has been given exemption after exemption and never truly thought of itself as being part of the EU. If you could, you´d move your island and anchor it in front of the US coastline.

I think it would be somehow good if the brits would leave, really forcing the EU to rethink their approach towards the people.

However I doubt that this would really happen, the bureaucrats are just serving themselves and the big corporations.

We can´t achieve parity within the EU if the underlying, basic regulations and laws are not the same for all.

Won´t happen, hence the project is doomed if it is to serve the people.

It serves corporate greed alright.

[controlx]

Err am I missing something here?


80% of CBI members want to remain in EU (despite the CBI boss thinking otherwise)
85% of business leaders the manufacturing sector want to stay in
84% of the financial sector want to stay in
98% of the Aerospace, Defence sector want to stay in
Most UK airports want to remain in
Most UK airlines want to stay in
Bank of England's Carney has inferred we ought to stay in yesterday


Putting aside the migration issues for a moment, doesn't that say something fairly obvious?

[dboy]

@controlx,

Yes you are missing something.

The EU is always talking about: enonomy, economy economy. I say: it is all leading to poverty poverty and poverty.

In my country the government has to save again a lot of money, all because EU wants it and are pointing with their finger. The notorious 3% rule. A lot of people have it already difficult because in the short history we had already to save also A LOT, at the expense of.........yes you guess it......common man.

Yes the EU is serving the companies, thats why all the ceo's want to stay in. But the EU is not serving people like you or me and because of that, common man is pushed in poverty.

grts

[controlx]

@dboy

O.K. lets put it another way. In any rational balance of probabilities, is my own (aviation) job more or less secure were the UK to leave the UK?

and

Are my children more or less likely to find jobs in the future were the UK to leave the EU?

Am absolutely convinced that the answer is less secure and less likely in both cases if we leave, no matter how small the difference.

I'm not allowing an 'it will make no difference' answer, got to choose one side or another.

[md1011]

Trouble is politicians are reliably unreliable when it comes to truth, there are a lot of untruths out there personally I'm for exit and have firmly believed that for probably 25-30 years. Maybe I should say I have been self-employed since 1984 and as such am no stranger to uncertainty and insecurity, but then who is these days in an age when people pay into pension funds all their life only to be skanked at the end of it all.

If I firmly believed we would get an honest and truthful presentation of the facts rather than the desperate clinging on to membership of a large bent gravy train then I would respect the democratic outcome. We will however have a pack of lies which will guarantee a smack in the mouth sooner or later.

Something else to chew on, given the unwillingness to give us anything in the way of change to conditions, do you honestly think they aren't going to give us such a kicking for having the audacity to try, it'll probably start with the quiet removal of the London financial sector to Germany, don't forget it has been muted in the past.

If our historical cultural disposition wants to regain its respect in the world again, then it needs to stand up, be counted and steadfastly stick to its resolve. Those were the halcyon days when politicians were elder statesmen, and Barak Obama would be told to keep his unqualified nose out of our affairs.

Will your job security and that of your childrens, and the sanctity of your future be any more guaranteed if we stay in ? ...............I believe not Sir.