Qantas Results rumours

[Fatguyinalittlecoat]

Pure rumour. Add, debunk or clarify as you will.

Well over One billion dollars for the full year. More 787 orders to come, with the transfer of some other group assets (read 787-8 or 717 ?) from other entities into QF. About time👏

[Iron Bar]

Billion $ plus for the year - check. It should be close to 1 billion for the half year!

More 789 - check, though possibly not announced till later in the year.

Transfer of assets - There are certainly some opportunities in mainline if the right "assets" can be found. But I'm hearing something unexpected involving EFA is on the cards.

[Seabird717]

Does the fact the new training manager at Network has a 717 endorsement indicate what might be bought in house?

[goodonyamate]

Close to a billion

Nothing earth shattering announcement wise, just some carefully chosen words which will lead to bigger changes down the track. 717 is a dead duck, another type between 737/330 (and something smaller than 737.....Airbus anyone?) all in house. anyone expecting massive changes will be disappointed.....

[PoppaJo]

Jetstar International...Unprofitable
Jetstar Asia...Unprofitable
Jetstar Pacific...Unprofitable
Jetstar Japan...Unprofitable
Jetstar Kiwi...Unprofitable

[Keg]

The number to keep an eye on is how much debt is retired. That can often influence the declared profit. I suspect high 800 to low 900 million for the half depending on that debt number.

I reckon further 787 orders will be at the full year at the earliest when the lead time comes due for the subsequent slots to the first 8 already ordered. If they do announce extra airframes then that means an accelerated arrival schedule and all hell will break loose in training and recruiting.

Still reckon it's too early to announce 737 replacement or A320 family (particularly A321s for trunk routes or A319s for regional stuff) in the medium term.

Less than a week and we'll know.

[busdriver007]

From April QF B787 slots disappear at a rate of one a month. At the price secured for these jets they would be mad not to take them up. As for the profit, A monkey could make money at the moment and after writing off the B747s there is a clear run(for 2 years at least!) for blue skies. Time to clean up on bonuses and head back to Ireland. A320/321s for domestic and B717 gone, more B787s and B788s elsewhere in the Group.

[Chris2303]

I heard he was going to DXB ;)

[Nigel747]

No chance of him working anywhere in the Middle East due to his personal life.
I would have thought that Asia would also prove difficult for the same reason.
Both regions not as tolerant as in the West.(understatement)
That leaves North America. If they looked at his record prior to the oil price plunge then he'd have to spin a pretty good yarn as to why he's the man for the job.

He's going no where.

[Going Boeing]

He doesn't need to go anywhere.

The LTIP expires next year and it looks like he'll pocket excess of $30M from it and then you add his normal salary & bonuses, he'll have around $45M in that year alone.

He'll happily retire from QF with his ill-gotten gains, be appointed to a number of lucrative board positions and live an extremely comfortable life.

[Beer Baron]

Busdriver007, where did you find out that info regarding the options evaporating from April onward? Does that already take into account the 8 ordered so far?

[Tuner 2]

The next batch of 787 options do not expire in April. They don't expire until next year. Chance of more 787 orders next week = somewhere between 0 and no f'n way.

[Blitzkrieger]

717 is a dead duck

Define dead duck? Recent acquisitions would suggest otherwise.

[R.Cruizo]

Sorry Boys & Girls,
2 more B717's arriving this year and three more being inspected.


RC

[waren9]

Jetstar International...Unprofitable
Jetstar Asia...Unprofitable
Jetstar Pacific...Unprofitable
Jetstar Japan...Unprofitable
Jetstar Kiwi...Unprofitable

the jets in nz are profitible, no? have the q300's dragged the nz operation back in to the red?

[goodonyamate]

The current crewing arrangement of the 717 will cease in the next few years, once a decision has been made about which aircraft will eventually replace the 737. Currently qf are so short of domestic capacity, if indeed another 3 are 'being inspected' it is a temporary measure. I highly doubt it though....

The other issue we have in the short term is crewing....we are (unbelievably) short of crew. Once the numbers are right, the 717 will be sold off (still a strong market for them in the US). We already have a wholly owned subsidiary (network) so if they decide to keep a dedicated regional jet (unlikely....airbus anyone?) why pay another mob of contractors. So...sorry, but cobham has a limited lifespan...

[Ollie Onion]

I doubt it, as the Q300's are run by an entirely separate company. So no impact on the profitability of the Jets.

[Going Nowhere]

More F100's headed Network's way if the scuttlebutt is correct.

Could have something to do with Alliance cleaning Austrian out of F100/70's.

[waren9]

so, is the nz operation profitable ollie?

[onehitwonder]

do the numbers - whats cheaper to run and delivers more not only directly but indirectly, E170/190 or F100..

Theres a reason there is a "Fleet" of them..


Think bigger....

[rmcdonal]

so, is the nz operation profitable ollie? Which bit? I doubt the turboprop part is yet, its only a few months old, and still heavily supported by the mothership in both crew resources and training. But I suppose in that case it depends on who is footing the bill for all the extra work needed to keep it in the air.

[Ollie Onion]

As with all these things Waren9 it is hard to determine exactly. The Jetstar NZ operation gets split in two when it comes to profit/loss. All the Tasman sectors which are the majority of the flying have the profits/loss allocated to Jetstar International profit/losses. Only the pure domestic operations fall under Jetstar NZ, during the last financial year the domestic JET operation was 7 figure profitable.

As for the Dash 8, that is setup under an entirely separate company again with the aircraft and majority of crew currently provided by Qantas....... So your guess is as good as mine. I would think that with the massive amounts of resource being thrown at it there is no way it doing anything than losing loads of cash.

[Chris2303]

If appalling OTP = loss then they are probably insolvent

[Ollie Onion]

That's the funny thing chris, OTP, bad customer service and bad press doesn't seem to affect the bottom line at all! Just look at Ryanair!

[empire4]

So many under educated muppets on here ramble on about how inefficient the B717 is and how it's be replaced by a jet that has 70+ more seats. Please do us a favour, go back to uni or where ever and learn about RPKs, fuel burn, etc etc. go read about the B717 and how other airlines use it and what sectors it does.

There's obviously a market in Australia for an aircraft of that size, not all want or get a B737 packed to the brim on every sector and we all know what a lot of pax think about anything with those spinny propeller things.

Having said that, Qantas will obviously take back the B717s into network. as for Cobhams days numbered.......once again, go get educated.

[goodonyamate]

Who said the 717 would be replaced with something bigger? how many seats does a 318 or 319 have?

[airdualbleedfault]

New HoTC at Notwork has a handful of Effo hours on the 717, I wouldn't read too much into that

[Lapon]

Although its widley accepted that Cobham will cease to operate the 717 under their AOC in the near future you could bet money on the fact it wont be going under the Network umbrella - word is another yet to be announced QF subsidary which keeps with tradition.

There must be about 5 'Qantas' group airlines now: TWO of them operating 737's and TWO of them operating Dash 8's, why not make it one more?

[RENURPP]

5 Qantas group airlines?:8

Try closer to 15:sad:

Why not simply purchase National Jet System with their AOC in tact, let's call it Airlink?

[Stationair8]

My money is on the Qantas group purchasing Alliance Aviation.

Qantas will then hand over the B787 operation to Alliance to operate.

Alliance will continue operating the Fokker fleet on FIFO.

Cobhams will continue operating the B717 for Qlink.

Eastern guys will be still talking about jets for the next 10 EBA's.

All cadets will be offered direct entry commands on the B787's.

[Ultergra]

My money is on the Qantas group purchasing Alliance Aviation.

Qantas will then hand over the B787 operation to Alliance to operate.

Alliance will continue operating the Fokker fleet on FIFO.

Cobhams will continue operating the B717 for Qlink.

Eastern guys will be still talking about jets for the next 10 EBA's.

All cadets will be offered direct entry commands on the B787's.

Ha. Cute, I thought school holidays were over.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/30823116/alliance-virgin-in-fifo-deal/

[travelator]

So, QANTAS will buy 70ish A320s and 20 A318s. Why? The Airbus is a similar cost to run as the 737 and the 318 costs around 4-5 times more to acquire than a 717 and the operating costs are the same if not more. Then there is around 800+ 737 and 200+ 717 pilots to retrain and/or hire, plus engineers. Where is the advantage?

They have just bought half the 717 fleet from the lessors, they will be converted to dual class and are reportedly looking at more.

[Going Nowhere]

Bit more 2-class 717 flying ex BNE from July. TSV & ISA to start. No doubt more to follow.

[Lapon]

My money is on the Qantas group purchasing Alliance Aviation.

Qantas will then hand over the B787 operation to Alliance to operate.

Alliance will continue operating the Fokker fleet on FIFO.

Cobhams will continue operating the B717 for Qlink.

Eastern guys will be still talking about jets for the next 10 EBA's.

All cadets will be offered direct entry commands on the B787's.

I really wish there was a like button on this forum.

[The Green Goblin]

My money is on qantas operating A320s to replace the 737s.

Network will get whatever replaces the 717. They will then complete the transformation to Qantas regional jet operator and charter division.

Jetstar will expand mainly in Asia. The fight will now go to air Asia since the Australian business can fuel and sustain it. They've been avoiding the fight whilst the house has been tidied up in Australia. Now they are getting ready for it.

More 787s will come for Jetstar and Qantas. Jetstar will give the 800s to Qantas which will become transcontinental machines replacing older 330s and take 900s which make more sense for the business.

Qantas will get 778/9s. Emirates trained the crew for them on the 777 and Dubai will be overflown while the ships fly direct to Europe non stop. The Emirates partnership will be over and Qantas will go back to traditional Anglo partnerships.

The A380s will become sub ten hour machines. The 787/777s will do long/ultra long haul.

Joyce will retire with a platinum parachute, and hardlicker after losing the Australian open to New Zealand after a few years on the tennis Australia board will become CEO.

Bronnie after losing her federal seat will become the chairperson to replace LC.

[midas]

Goblin

No disrespect but when you refer to B787's as 800s and 900s you lose credibility.

For clarification they are -8 and -9's, it's not hard

[log0008]

Why would Qantas consider the A320 to replace 737? Take in account for new type ratings, maintenance training etc, I thought they wanted to reduce the number of the types.

Also is qantas really getting close to replacing the 717?

Anyway when are the results due?

[The Green Goblin]

Who cares?

I didn't think I had any credibility anyway.

It'll always be an 800/900 to just about every pilot. A spotter/foamer on the other hand.

[midas]

No it won't

[Capt Claret]

Although its widley accepted that Cobham will cease to operate the 717 under their AOC in the near future

Widely accepted by whom? I first heard such suggestions in 1995, almost 21 years ago

[Capt Fathom]

Were Cobham operating here 21years ago?

[BPA]

They were as NJS.

[RENURPP]

Were Cobham operating here 21years ago?
Cobham bought National Jet Systems which has privided services for Australian Airlines since 1990. We all know What happened to Australian Airlines, and I am talking about the original Australian Airlines so you could say National Jet Systems predates Qantas domestic.

By the way, National jet systems is still the employer of the pilots and holds the AOc.

[Xatrix]

Why would Qantas consider the A320 to replace 737? Take in account for new type ratings, maintenance training etc, I thought they wanted to reduce the number of the types.

Something to do with having 100 A320's on order and nowhere to put them perhaps! I imagine the claimed 4000nm range of the 321 Neo has piqued some interest as well....

[IsDon]

Something to do with having 100 A320's on order and nowhere to put them perhaps! I imagine the claimed 4000nm range of the 321 Neo has piqued some interest as well....

I don't see the sense in JQ operating a small fleet of 787s. It must be costing a bomb to crew and operate these aircraft, that are really orphans, while the vast majority of JQs fleet are Airbuss.

It would make sense to roll the 787-8s into the Qantas fleet along with the -9s arriving from next year. Let's face it, that's were they should have been in the first place to replace the 767s that are sorely missed domestically.

With the exception of HKT and HNL, I don't think there would be any routes the 787 does that couldn't be done with an A321. Why not make JQ entirely Airbus, CCQ 320/321 with all the associated efficiencies that brings. Increase the QF frequency to HNL and pick up HKT with the 330s in the short term then 787s.

Makes perfect sense. So of course will probably never happen.

[airdualbleedfault]

Could somebody please explain to a dumb old fart why AJ would "purchase" Cobham airline operation ? He owns the routes, the check in staff, the ramp staff, the aircraft (or leases them), as far as I can tell the only thing he doesn't own is the tech crew, cabin crew, and engineers (ok, and the hangars in Adelaide but I'm pretty sure he already has 1 or 2 of those).
So what exactly would QF be buying ? Wait til the contract expires, say bye bye Cobham, and offer all the operational staff a job on Networks crappy conditions, voila !

[log0008]

Something to do with having 100 A320's on order and nowhere to put them perhaps! I imagine the claimed 4000nm range of the 321 Neo has piqued some interest as well....

Ah makes sence all those from Jetstars fails in Asia.

With the exception of HKT and HNL, I don't think there would be any routes the 787 does that couldn't be done with an A321. Why not make JQ entirely Airbus, CCQ 320/321 with all the associated efficiencies that brings. Increase the QF frequency to HNL and pick up HKT with the 330s in the short term then 787s.

What about Japan? And the new route into China?

[IsDon]

What about Japan? And the new route into China?

Maybe Qantas' shareholders have finally realised what Bruce Buchanan tried to tell them years ago. That long haul low cost models don't work.

If you limit JQs destinations to range to the 4000NM range of an A321then the model works. Especially with the efficiencies you get from a common fleet.

As for any destination outside this range that you mention, give it to Qantas mainline. Qantas mainline has been gifting routes to JQ for years. About time QF got some back.

[Keg]

Over a period of a couple of months last year I compared QF and JQ loads to HNL. It wasn't particularly scientific as it was simply using the staff travel website but given the methodology was the same from both some conclusions can be drawn.

On days where the other didn't operate, JQ flights averaged 75% load factor whilst Qantas was at 90%. On the days where both flights operated JQ dropped to 55% whilst Qantas dropped to 75%.

Right aeroplane, right route? Doesn't look like it to me.

[mcgrath50]

Qantas First Half Results (http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-first-half-financial-result/)

170 pilotsover 3 years. So Just over 55 a year. Let the games begin.

[Keg]

It's not enough! That'll only cover pilots for the 787.

[moa999]

Jetstar International...Unprofitable
Jetstar Asia...Unprofitable
Jetstar Pacific...Unprofitable
Jetstar Japan...Unprofitable
Jetstar Kiwi...Unprofitable


2 out of 5 aint bad I guess... And with almost 100% leased aircraft EBIT here is better than EBIT at Qantas.

Based on the supplementary slides
Jetstar International...Profitable record result despite $23m volcano impacts - 11 787s
Jetstar Asia...Profitable - 18 A320s
Jetstar Pacific...Unprofitable (offfset by Asia/Japan) - 12 A320/321s
Jetstar Japan...Profitable 1st time - 20 A320s
Jetstar Kiwi...Commenced (guessing unprofitable )

[SixDemonBag]

I found the wording interesting. The press release states "170 in total, to the end of '19". Why so definitive?

The video press release seemed more open-ended.

I do agree that 170 still sounds like nowhere near enough.

[Tankengine]

Moa999,
I can find "record result" for Jetstar International but no "profitable" ;)
As there are no $ amounts like the QF numbers it is difficult to know.:hmm:

[Going Boeing]

If Jetstar International is making a profit, then why is Joyce considering transferring some of the B788's from his cherished love child to Qantas Domestic?

[bdcer]

Going Boeing,

Can you provide a source for that info? I know the original plan was for the 788s to go to Q when the 789s turned up.

wheels_down,

We can all suspect funny accounting, but that doesn't mean it's true. Do you have any proof? You certainly sound confident that it may be the case, & if so, you should really report it to the relevant authorities.

[SandyPalms]

bdcer

The rumour is 4 787-8's will be transferred to the QF side for domestic, to free up A330's for more international. The source comes from inside JQ. It's been around for while now, so I'll believe it when I see it.

[bdcer]

Thanks Sandy. I'd also heard that Q may not 'take' the acft, but have Q pilots fly J* patterns to build experience on the 787.

[Ollie Onion]

^^^ They will probably use Jetstar for the training since they already have the simulator and the approval as a 787 Type Rating provider.

[rmcdonal]

but have Q pilots fly J* patterns to build experience on the 787. How dare the Q pilots steal the J pilots flying!

[Going Boeing]

bdcer, Gareth Evans was asked if the original plan to transfer the JQ B788's to Mainline Domestic with JQ upgrading to B789's was still going to happen. I'm not allowed to give the details of his response on this forum, but I'm in no doubt, from his wording, that JQ will not be getting any -9's. It also looks like JQ will not get the additional three B788's that were planned.

[IsDon]

I believe the last 3 -8s were converted to -9 options for mainline.

[bdcer]

Thanks Goeing Boeing. Also heard a rumour that Qantas might take the A320 NEOs as well?

[Aussie Fo]

If I remember correctly Jetstar had 15 788, and Qantas group had 50 789

Jetstar dropped to 14 a couple of years ago the with the last announcement QF took the last 3 and converted to 789 and confirmed 5 of the Qf orders leaving 45 options( although who knows what's firms and not )9

With the initial 738 order 15 were announced and 60 options perhaps? Best I can tell all 60 options were taken its just done quietly.

Best I can read some more firmed up later this year and next and that's 25 ish and if the world don't fall apart the rest will replace 744/330/380 into mid 2020.

Are there still any options on the 380? 777 type sometime?

[Keg]

777X to replace the 744s from about 2022/23 I reckon. The 787 is a great machine but it's not a 744 replacement. I said that before QF announced them and the current fleet announcement has borne that out.

A320s for mainline gained serious consideration when JQ HKG was finished off. I reckon 75% chance the NEOs will appear in mainline colours from late 2018 onwards.

QF announced the 787s two years in advance. If they want any beyond the first 8 they'll need to firm them up around the end of this year. Expect them to be announced probably at the Full year results or AGM*.

* Presumes no WWIII or significant financial crisis.

[Troo believer]

Joyce has told many staff that he wants all options exercised. He wants all 50. Don't forget the price is heavily discounted. The 787 will become the main stay of the international fleet and the domestic fleet will retain the 737 based on cost of operation and maintenance. I have it on good authority from a very senior engineer that the 737 fleet is the most reliable of all types currently flying at QF. After 5 years from new it's cheaper to operate a 73 over an A320. The training cost alone would be mind boggling to change types, not to mention trying to integrate both types during transition into the schedule. The result could be a total cluster ** ck during any sort of delay or weather event. 737, 787, 777X makes a hell of a lot of sense!

[Derfred]

The result could be a total cluster ** ck

... which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.

Since when has the board listened to very senior engineers?

[Pearly White]

Right aeroplane, right route? Doesn't look like it to me.Keg, that's not the only difference, is it? Perhaps the balance of the variance between the two is attributable to the punter's perception about the value and quality of the service offering.

[unexplained blip]

Trivial as it may be, but a symbolic QF tail sits proudly on the inside of the 787 line hanger door at Everett, next to a JQ tail and amongst 25 or so others, even though there's not yet a real 787 in mainline livery yet. The four 787 on the line yesterday were KLM, Norwegian, something unrecognisable, an obscure african mob, in the four line positions. Plus a BA tail already with rego on the ground near position four, but with seemingly with nothing yet to be attached to.

[donpizmeov]

On the same note, there is a 743 parked at the end of 34L in Jeddah with the faded remains of QF on its tail. Far more interesting story with this one.

[PLovett]

On the same note, there is a 743 parked at the end of 34L in Jeddah with the faded remains of QF on its tail. Far more interesting story.

I think that aircraft has appeared on several videos taken from aircraft transiting Jeddah.

Keg was on the mark with his comment about WW3 or another financial meltdown.

[PoppaJo]

Whatever happend to those grand plans for Jetstar to operate a 787 base from SIN? They tried two routes and gave up. Should have gone to China and India not Auckland.

Talk about missed opportunity. Scoot just posted Q3 profit of $18m.

[LeeJoyce]

The 78's have enough trouble running as it is, another day another broken 787 or 3

[SixDemonBag]

New a330 destination to be announced shortly, apparently.

[Keg]

Related to the rumour of the JQ 787 coming off BNE- HNL? :E :ok:

Define 'shortly' sixdemonbag.

[moa999]

The 78's have enough trouble running as it is, another day another broken 787 or 3

Yet Scoot also runs 787s

[Lookleft]

Ain't no rumour Keg! Announced yesterday, but not for another 8 months.

[1a sound asleep]

Related to the rumour of the JQ 787 coming off BNE- HNL? :E :ok:

Define 'shortly' sixdemonbag.

JQ BNE-HNL getting the chop- to be replaced with BNE-HKT.

[dragon man]

In an interview in today's Australian once again Alan Joyce talks about the wonderful deal he did with the great leadership of AIPA to deliver the company a 38% productivity gain on the 787. Now, I'm only a simple pilot. Could someone help me out here and explain how where this productivity came from? I sure as hell cant see it! Thanks in advance.

[Going Boeing]

Could someone help me out here and explain how where this productivity came from? I sure as hell cant see it!

Joyce has never told the truth in the past - why would he start now?

These statements are made for the consumption of the masses who don't know that they are lies. It's probably aimed at the institutional shareholders as well - their researchers have NFI about anything operational and will take it at face value.

[Tuner 2]

Exactly GB. He was pushing 30% and now it's suddenly 38%. Like any statistic, you can come up with a calculation to give you a desired headline. A bit like my car can supposedly go from 0-100km/h in 6.1 seconds, in reality with a normal driver and a normal road it's probably more like 9 seconds. The 30 or now 38% is probably more like 10 or so with a real world schedule actually applied to it and not some theoretical maximum.

He says these things to convince the shareholders and market and more importantly, other unions like the FAAA still to bargain.

[IsDon]

Did you know that 78% of statistics are made up on the spot?

You know what though, 30%, 38%, 78%, who cares. The fact is, finally, Qantas management are talking up the 787 in long haul. I don't care what figures they use to convince the ignorant masses. The facts are the aircraft are coming, I'm going to have the opportunity to fly it, and the company are finally supporting it.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Joyce has never told the truth in the past - why would he start now?

These statements are made for the consumption of the masses who don't know that they are lies. .

"Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations."Attributed (disputed) to George Orwell