ROUTE SPECULATION

[AvGeek1]

I though it would be a good idea to set up a special thread related to route speculation as many people in most of the airport threads get wound up by people who like to speculate routes, like myself. So fire away with all of your route speculations! :E

Routes that I have been thinking about from some UK airports:

Luton-Tenerife (easyJet)
Luton-Oslo
Luton-Stockholm
Luton-Dubrovnik (easyJet)
Luton-Krakow
Luton-Rome (Vueling)
Luton-Madrid (Vueling)
Luton-Eindhoven (Transavia)
Luton-Marseille (easyJet)
Luton-Athens (easyJet)
Luton-Orlando (Thomson)
Luton-Cancun (Thomson)

Gatwick-Singapore (Singapore Airlines)
Gatwick-Bangkok (Norwegian)
Gatwick-Las Vegas (Norwegian)
Gatwick-Abu Dhabi (Etihad Airways)
Gatwick-Doha (Qatar Airways)

Heathrow-Orlando (BA/Virgin)
Heathrow-Singapore (Virgin)
Heathrow-Manila (British Airways)

Glasgow-Brussels
Glasgow-Copenhagen
Glasgow-Frankfurt (Lufthansa)

Manchester-Shanghai (China Eastern)
Manchester-Singapore (Direct)

Birmingham-Valencia

What are your thoughts about these routes?

These are mainly from the UK, but feel free to contribute from anywhere.

[BHX5DME]

Birmingham to Chicago - AA

[sf01]

Glasgow- US 'leisure' destinations (Thomas Cook )
Glasgow- Istanbul (Turkish)
Glasgow - Atlanta (Delta/VS)
Glasgow- Munich
Glasgow-Madrid


Edinburgh- Orlando (Norwegian) Thomson run a very limited amount of flights


Glasgow/Edinburgh to China

[wallp]

Luton to Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Prague (easyJet)
Luton to Tallinn (Wizz)
Luton to Isle of Man (easyJet)
Luton to Cork (Ryanair)
Luton to Shannon (Ryanair)
Luton to Florence (Vueling)
Luton to Cagliari (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Palermo (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Valencia (easyJet)

Gatwick to San Francisco (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Miami (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Fort Lauderdale (British Airways or Virgin Atlantic)
Gatwick to Nassau (British Airways)
Gatwick to Seychelles (British Airways)

[Ringwayman]

Some of your "route speculation" has been operated before and been canned by the airlines you've suggested. Must be a reason for that!

MAN-Shanghai already got the nod for Air China to start this year according to some reports but not yet announced.

That route will be one of 25 long-haul routes that MAN states it is targetting as viable.

[LAX_LHR]

Manchester-Shanghai route licence is held by Air China so already prevents China Eastern starting a flight, it is expected to launch in June.

Other routes I hope come to fruition:

Bucharest- Ryanair rumoured, but would also take TAROM
Seville- Ryanair or Vueling likely
Florence- potential for Vueling, Monarch, Easyjet or Jet2 to start
Cape Town- Ripe for Thomas Cook to start
Tampa- Ditto above
Bordeaux- cant believe with MANs level of flights this remains unserved. Flybe.
Lyon- Only served in winter, capable of being year round with Easyjet.

Leave it there as could be a long list. I don't see any of the above being unrealistic.

[LBIA]

Leeds-Bradford pertential routes and rumours are as follows.

Madrid = Iberia Express or Monarch.
Berlin = Jet2
Newquay = flybe
Brussels = Eastern Airways
Belfast Int'l = Ryanair

Here's hoping Extrajet get off the ground with routes to Antwerp and Copenhagen

Also talk that Ryanair maybe adding a 4th based Boeing 737-800 next summer

[AvGeek1]

Gatwick-San Francisco is technically going to be operated soon with Norwegian starting flights to Oakland this year.

I also think that many more Italian, Spanish & French estinations could be operated from the UK, especially from Luton & Manchester. Also Gatwick could be receive much more long-haul services.

Does anyone have any suggestions for new easyJet routes from Gatwick? They haven't announced anything for S16, but could announce routes in W16.

[MANFOD]

To LAX-LHR's excellent list for MAN, I'll be brave and add 3 long haul.

San Francisco - TCX but possibly VS

Bangkok - Again maybe TCX or Norwegian as an outsider.

India (Mumbai or Delhi) - Anybody please.

[davidjohnson6]

AvGeek - excellent idea of yours to start this thread - will hopefully make everyone happier.

[EK77WNCL]

NCL-IST: Turkish
NCL-STN/LCY: Ryanair/Cityjet
NCL-FRA: bmi regional
NCL-GDN, WAW, BUD, RIX: Wizzair
NCL-HAM: Eurowings
NCL-MXP, MUC, KEF, RAK, JMK: easyjet
NCL-Cape Verde, PVR, PUJ: Thomson
NCL-MAD: Vueling/Iberia Express
NCL-YYZ: Westjet

Plus a few more one off charters, maybe TCX or VS to Las Vegas or something like that, I'm sure they could fill 1 A330 a year, Ryanair base would be great if they could boost already busy markets like PMI, TFS, FAO, ACE and maybe introduce a few more unserved ones in Spain, Italy etc.

Someone to Norway would also be up there in my wish list for NCL as well as a return of Venice, Berlin and maybe a few more, that's probably easyjet/Ryanair territory

[AvGeek1]

AvGeek - excellent idea of yours to start this thread - will hopefully make everyone happier.

Thank you! I just thought it will make the threads a happier place without certain people taking a dislike to people's route speculations.

I'm also pleased at all of the speculation so far as they all seem quite realistic and could work. Keep them coming guys! Also feel free to speculate routes outside of the UK too!

[AvGeek1]

Luton to Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Prague (easyJet)
Luton to Tallinn (Wizz)
Luton to Isle of Man (easyJet)
Luton to Cork (Ryanair)
Luton to Shannon (Ryanair)
Luton to Florence (Vueling)
Luton to Cagliari (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Palermo (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Valencia (easyJet)

Gatwick to San Francisco (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Miami (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Fort Lauderdale (British Airways or Virgin Atlantic)
Gatwick to Nassau (British Airways)
Gatwick to Seychelles (British Airways)

What an excellent list wallp! I definately agree that there should be more Italian routes from Luton. Also that easyJet should provide some more sensible times on the Luton-Prague route in competition with Wizz.

Also Gatwick could have many more long-haul destinations than it currently has and I think more US routes like Miami could definately be on the cards!

[Una Due Tfc]

DUB-PVG: China Eastern
DUB-IAH: EI, Ethiopian 5th freedom
DUB-MIA: EI/AA

Those seem to be the 3 long haul rumours ex DUB with the most legs atm.

[AvGeek1]

I think easyJet has much more room to expand its operation at Manchester and they will also be adding some obvious gaps (Milan & Paris) in S16. What other routes do you think easyJet could operate realistically and successfully from Manchester?

Some obvious gaps like;

Lanzarote
Faro
Rome
Barcelona

[Una Due Tfc]

I think any airport with a decent number of destinations/carriers in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco might suddenly find new Spanish and Portuguese destinations on the departure boards this year....

[Charlie Roy]

DUB-PVG: China Eastern
DUB-IAH: EI, Ethiopian 5th freedom
DUB-MIA: EI/AA

Those seem to be the 3 long haul rumours ex DUB with the most legs atm.

Anna.aero analysis also agrees that DUB-MIA is viable. Aer Lingus would be more that more logical choice given there is more demand in the DUB-MIA direction.
Skyscanner Unserved Route of the Week: Dublin-Miami (http://www.anna.aero/2016/02/10/unserved-route-of-the-week-dublin-miami/)

[mwm991]

I'm down in Cumbria part-time, but I also live in Glasgow part-time and thats where I'm from. The thread has descended from speculation to pure fantasy almost instantly, so I'm gonna go that way too.

For GLA to sustain its continued growth and for the benefit of the local economy then, there absolutely has to be an increase in the range of European routes, which Edinburgh is hoovering up. At the moment there is nothing to mainland Scandinavia, a seasonal weekly service with LH to Munich, no IST, MAD, LIS, BRU, FRA to name but a few.

The questions are can the local population support these routes? Is there enough interest from foreign tourists? What about the business community?

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Bucharest- Ryanair rumoured, but would also take TAROM

FR have a press conference this week on Tuesday or Wednesday.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

BA going back on MAN-JFK on a B787-8, that's a surefire winner IMHO.

[crewmeal]

BA going back to the regions as per the 90's full stop!

[AvGeek1]

BA going back on MAN-JFK on a B787-8, that's a surefire winner IMHO.

Let's not get carried away now! Although we would all love to see this, don't think it is going to happen I'm afraid.

[AvGeek1]

Does anyone know of any routes that Wizz should realistically be operating?

[vctenderness]

I think MAN -JFK could happen. It was operated for many years BOAC/BA using aircraft crewed and operated from LHR so didn't need any air craft being based in Manchester.

Well within crew hours including deadheading between LHR and MAN.

[aeulad]

With their well known in the area brand, and with several proven markets still unserved from Humberside (HUY), Jet2 with the following;

Summer
HUY-Alicante
HUY-Corfu
HUY-Dalaman
HUY-Faro
HUY-Ibiza
HUY-Malaga
HUY-Palma
HUY-Tenerife

Winter
HUY-Alicante
HUY-Fuerteventura
HUY-Geneva
HUY-Gran Canaria
HUY-Lanzarote
HUY-Malaga
HUY-Tenerife

Kind regards

Aeulad

[MANFOD]

Does anyone know of any routes that Wizz should realistically be operating?

MAN is not particularly well served by routes to the Baltic/Eastern Europe regions compared with some other airports as the current absence of Bucharest shows, so there are possible opportunities there. However, given that Wizz seem to be established and focused on LPL, DSA and now BHX, I doubt we'll see them at MAN anytime soon.

[Bagso]

BA back at Manchester,now there's a thing.

Well there is little doubt they must be aghast at how much business they have lost and are continuing to lose from the N West.

Quite odd seeing there recent "national" BA holiday ads.

Other than London the regional demographic is to say the least narrow, unless of course they set up shop in the centre of they country with a FlyBe code share? Now that would hoover up a tremendous number of passengers.

If they did comeback would it be on a genuinely competitive basis with say 5 long haul aircraft based or a short term #spoiler.

And what routes for the card carrying regulars ?

I'll leave the list to others.

Trouble is there are too many of us still alive with long memories ��

[AvGeek1]

MAN is not particularly well served by routes to the Baltic/Eastern Europe regions compared with some other airports as the current absence of Bucharest shows, so there are possible opportunities there. However, given that Wizz seem to be established and focused on LPL, DSA and now BHX, I doubt we'll see them at MAN anytime soon.

I agree with this and surely MAN would have been a bigger market to serve rather than LPL for Wizz. I also agree that we won't see Wizz at MAN anytime soon.

If anyone was going to start flights to Bucharest, it's looking like Ryanair. What other Eastern European/Baltic destinations are MAN missing that could be a winner?

[FFHKG]

LBIA

Surprised that you include Jet2 to Berlin in your wish list. They have already tried this once and withdrew from the route. I suspect that FR are more likely to give it a go if it is to reappear.

[eggc]

I would not be so sure about MAN and Wizz, nothing confirmed obviously...but it does no harm expect the unexpected :)

[Jetblast79]

Alicante-Aberdeen
Alicante-Heathrow (BA)

[AvGeek1]

Alicante-Aberdeen
Alicante-Heathrow (BA)

British Airways dos operate a 3 weekly year round Heathrow to Alicante service a couple of years ago, but it got discontinued. I think they could make it work seasonally in the summer.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

British Airways will tell you that they already serve MAN-JFK daily: the flight numbers are BA1552 / BA1553. Of course, this flight is otherwise known as AA210 / AA211 operated by BA's Oneworld partner American Airlines. Given that this codeshare operation already exists, would BA consider potentially diluting the market with a second (or replacement?) schedule on their own metal? With MAN neatly functioning as a spoke for AA but representing a bit of a logistical headache for a 're-based' BA long-haul aircraft, maybe AA would still be viewed as the best Oneworld solution for the MAN-JFK market.

Wizz Air. This airline is gradually evolving from its earlier model of sticking to backwater airports. BHX is a recent beneficiary of this and it is not alone. It would therefore be worthwhile for MAN to make a pitch. If MAN can offer a pricing-structure acceptable to Ryanair then they can do so for any other ULCC.

A certain pink and purple airline is actually well aware of demand derived from the Manchester area. Some years ago I was puzzled to note advertising posters in Krakow (Poland) promoting their scheduled flights between Krakow and Manchester. However, the small-print revealed that the flights in question were actually Katowice-Liverpool! Giant porkie-pies at both ends of this claim! I guess that Poland didn't have an effective 'Advertising Standards Agency' at that time. However, somebody had certainly recognised where the underlying traffic demand actually lay!

[AMM626]

Birmingham-Porto (Monarch, Ryanair)
Birmingham-Helsinki (Finnair)
Birmingham-Stockholm (SAS, Norwegian)
Birmingham-Vienna (Austrian, Eurowings)
Birmingham-Oslo (Norwegian)
Birmingham-Lublin (Wizz Air)
Birmingham-Kosice (Wizz Air)
Birmingham-Timisoara (Wizz Air, Ryanair)
Birmingham-Cluj (Wizz Air, Blue Air)
Birmingham-Iasi (Blue Air)
Birmingham-Riga (Wizz Air, Ryanair)
Birmingham-Pisa/Florence (Monarch, Ryanair, Flybe)
Birmingham-Orlando MCO (Anyone please)
Birmingham-Las Vegas (As above)
Birmingham-Cuba (Thomson)
Birmingham-Vancouver (Air Transat, Westjet)
Birmingham-Chicago (American)
Birmingham-Boston (Norwegian)
Birmingham-Mumbai (Air India, Norwegian)
Birmingham-Tehran (Mahan Air)
Birmingham-China (Take your pick)
Birmingham-Abu Dhabi (Etihad)

[Letsflycwl]

Cardiff - Berlin (BE)
Cardiff - Bordeaux (BE)
Cardiff - Murcia
Cardiff - Prague
Cardiff - Istanbul (TK)
Cardiff - Dubai (EK)
Cardiff - New York (DL/UA/AA)
Cardiff - Cape Verde (TOM/MT)
Cardiff - Toronto (AC rouge)

Just a few wishful hopes....

[WHBM]

It's actually a bit difficult to come up with "good" future destinations for BA from Heathrow, as pretty much all the worthwhile ones have been done.

Regarding the old "BA from the provinces" proposals, those times have been and gone. When you look at the other European operators they likewise have hunkered down to just one, or for a few, two, hubs, and that's it. Legacy operators have just become hub operators. BA have a sizeable operation from different London airports to Nice, Air France don't even bother with the route, although they have substantial operations to Paris at both London and Nice. But spoke-to-spoke flights just seem destined to be left to the LCCs.

[GAZMO]

Ryanair are going to base another two aircraft at BFS in the autumn. Anyone have any ideas as to routes
They did have BFS to Milan on mobile app for a while then removed.

[EZYPZY]

Liverpool or Manchester to Toulouse with EZY or FR? Currently only served twice weekly on a seasonal basis with LS. Seems rather underserved from the North West.

With Broughton just down the road too, surely Airbus could generate some traffic here?

[SWBKCB]

Don't Airbus operate there own private shuttle from Chester?

[Porky Speedpig]

The IAG group and other BA joint ventures are slowly but surely increasing their presence at MAN, currently roughly 10/day to London (BA), 8/day to Ireland (EI), 3/day to USA (AA), up to 3-4/day to Spain/Italy (IB/I2/VY), Billund/Helsinki (EZ/AY), so arguably up to nearly 30 flights a day.

[SWBKCB]

Skippy - see what you've started? You've forgot to use the "tongue in cheek" emoticon...

[MerchantVenturer]

Don't Airbus operate there own private shuttle from Chester?

Yes they do between Hawarden, Bristol and Toulouse airports and now operated by Eastern Airways E145s who took over the contract from bmi regional a few weeks ago.

[Bagso]

Wizzair not using Manchester is bizarre !

They surround Manchester but don't actually fly from it. Now thee only lo cost airline not to use the largest airport outside London.

A myriad opportunities to Eastern Europe are available !

[mwm991]

It's not bizarre. Liverpool is cheaper and half an hour down the road.

[Fairdealfrank]

Gatwick to Nassau (British Airways)



There's already LHR-NAS 5 days/week, extended to GCM 4 days/week.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

As this is my first post on pprune, let me say hello. Perhaps some of you will recognise my handle, in which case hello again!

There has been a fair amount of chatter regarding long haul routes ex MAN on a number of forums that I am a member of. Some of these have been mentioned but it may be worth my while to offer my two cents.

Cape Town - as LAX_LHR mentions this would be a dream route for TCX. It did not work with SAA but should do with the right aircraft. I'd like to see VS perform this route but in their current position I suspect that is beyond a long shot. Johannesburg would also be a good one, but less of a leisure route for TCX.

Shanghai - this seems likely to be launched by Air China sometime after Hainan launch the Beijing route.

LAX/SFO - although TCX have launched a route to LAX this summer, it is only twice a week and seasonal. The indications are that demand is stronger for that route, and I'm sure there are a number of airlines who will watch with interest. BA used to offer this in the past and VS have long been credited with an interest. The partnership with DL has been productive in Atlanta and a further expansion west might benefit both parties. I doubt both would be launched but I would not be shocked if one was within the next year. A left field operator in the shape of Air New Zealand have been interested in the past.

Bangkok - as mentioned, another good TCX route. Apparent TG were keen on MAN before their recent problems. Not sure why, but hey ho.

Kuala Lumpur - big market, served by MH in the past but their wel publicised issues mean it is unrealistic. Air Asia X have sniffed around this route but we're put off by APD.

Tokyo - long running interest from JAL. Who knows if anything would come from it but it would be a great one to have.

Delhi/Mumbai - quite how AI have not opened this is beyond me. BHX do really well on the route and I suspect MAN would equal that (unless they feel it would dilute their pax market?)

Dallas - AA have tweeted about running a 788 on this route. Whether anything happens is anyone's guess.

Singapore - who knows what SQ will do. On another forum I have posted that MAN supply comfortably over half the average PAX load to SIN from MUC. How much of those are premium PAX I do not know. The figures are not a million miles away from the early 2000s when it was daily in the 772ER and the suggestion is they they will try non stop again with an A359.

JFK/EWR - big increase in PAX in 2015. Hopefully someone Will offer a different departure time than early morning!!!

Hong Kong - a daily or 8x weekly CX service I think will launch in 2017.

On BA, as Shed says they would argue that their partner and alliance airlines serve MAN. They are not the national operator, but a hub airline - same as the MEB3, SQ, CX etc. MAN is a spoke, but a pretty large spoke. Do I think they could make a long haul operation at MAN work? Possibly, but I doubt they'll try. There is clearly a market for it, but there would need to be no half measures and some people have long memories of BA abandoning MAN and that would be difficult to circumvent. They may need to change their business model to a dual hub a la LH - who are not exactly in the best of shapes.

[Ringwayman]

Liverpool is cheaper and half an hour down the road.

Yep. And we saw what Ryanair and easyJet have done after focusing in on the apparently "cheaper" airport.

[MANFOD]

What other Eastern European/Baltic destinations are MAN missing that could be a winner?

Some that come to mind are Tallinn; Vilnius; Katowice; Poznan; and Cluj as well as Bucharest. Some of those have been tried in the past and the routes pulled, but it doesn't mean they couldn't work in future.

The difficulty is that they operate from competitor airports already by various carriers, so it needs an airline to take up the challenge. While easyjet fly to cities such as Berlin and Madrid from both LPL and MAN, I don't see Wizz doing the same with its destinations. Routes served from DSA and BHX but not LPL would be less of an issue for them I guess.

Edit: Of the possible routes mentioned, it seems Wizz only fly to KTW from LPL. Ryanair fly to Vilnius and Poznan from LPL but they do duplicate one or two routes I believe. Blue Air have flights to Bucharest and Cluj.

[Firstaid]

Glasgow - New York JFK (American)
With the daily Delta and American as well the double daily United service to Newark demand may be over estimated at Edinburgh and Glasgow could gain a new service.

Glasgow - Charleroi (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Beauvais (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Knock (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Shannon (Ryanair)
All routes previously operated by Ryanair from Prestwick but could be revived at Glasgow. Beauvais in particular carried 20000+ pax per month in past years.

[WHBM]

The IAG group and other BA joint ventures are slowly but surely increasing their presence at MAN, currently roughly 10/day to London (BA), 8/day to Ireland (EI), 3/day to USA (AA), up to 3-4/day to Spain/Italy (IB/I2/VY), Billund/Helsinki (EZ/AY), so arguably up to nearly 30 flights a day.
10/day to London (BA) BA Hub
8/day to Ireland (EI) EI hub
3/day to USA (AA) All to AA hubs
up to 3-4/day to Spain/Italy (IB/I2/VY)MAD - IB Hub; BCN = VY Hub
Billund/Helsinki (EZ/AY), EZ and AY Hubs

That's how it is now. An ideal route is 50% O&D to the major metropolitan area where the hub is located, and 50% connecting traffic there onward to other destinations on the network. If you can get a greater share of the O&D (Dublin likely) that's to the good because revenue per seat is commonly better than the "attributed share" of a through fare, but the connecting traffic brings notable economies of scale.

[Jetaway]

The "logistical headache" of re-positioning BA aircraft to be based out of MAN is actually not that hard. VS already carries this out with their ATL service in which aircraft swap routes out in ATL therefore allowing major maintenance to be carried out at LHR without the need of a positioning flight. BA could easily do this with the frequency of flights they have to multiple destinations they have in the USA. The 787-8 is the perfect aircraft for these types of flights as it was what is was designed for long thin routes.

With regards to diluting the market DL added their JFK service last year and yields on AA have roughly stayed the same. BA could possibly make the 2nd service somewhat later in the day as they have done for their new LGW-JFK service.

Other flights I would like to see from MAN would be:
MAN - WAW (LOT)
MAN - DXB (Using QF Metal)
MAN - NRT/HND (JAL/ANA)
MAN - BKK (TG)
MAN - DEL/BOM (AI/9W)

[AvGeek1]

Could we see any full-service airlines from Eastern Europe operating to MAN? LOT (to WAW), Czech Airlines (to PRG), TAROM (to OTP), Bulgaria Air (to SOF)?

I was also thinking about British Airways Gatwick operations and what routes they could add from there. Came up with these;

LGW-DUB
LGW-LPA
LGW-PMI
LGW-TXL
LGW-MXP

What are your thoughts? Any other suggestions?

[robbie1973]

Bit far fetched and I know it's never likely to happen but how about a few new domestic routes -

LTN - NQY (BE/EZY)
LTN - NCL (EXS/EZY)
LTN - CWL (BE)
LTN - MAN (EZY)

Mid haul Routes -

LTN - RAI (BY/ZB)
LTN - PDL (BY/ZB)
LTN - ODS (WZZ)

[EI-BUD]

This certainly is an interesting discussion point. Many of the routes could be viable. However, given the consolidation that has happened in the industry in Europe and the US (Europe not done yet), airlines are cherry picking what they believe to be the most profitable routes to deploy their aircraft. Shareholder demand plays a large part and a maximisation of yield and optimisation of the schedules are to the fore... Nonetheless I'll add my two pence worth.

Coming at this from a Northern Ireland then an Ireland perspective ;

Belfast International - Toronto ( was traditionally a well established route, Canada has large NI diaspora) surprised Norwegian or Westjet haven't went in though, I'd imagine Westjet looked before..

Belfast City - Cork: bring this route back pure financial crash and air crash by Manx 2 Aer Arann had very respectable business schedule that was well subscribed. The drive is long, and I believe this route is probably the most viable routes inside the Island.

Belfast ( either airport) - Naples, Venice. Huge demand on seasonal basis. Peak summer flights on holiday routes tend to be packed and fares very high.

Time is also right to bring back Belfast to Gdansk and Warsaw in Poland. Large Polish continent in Belfast, all of who fly via Dublin.

Belfast (either airport) - Berlin. Was withdrawn in the worst of times. It used to do well and Berlin is great city break.

Belfast (either airport but probably at City) - Madrid, by Iberia express. Willie Walsh stated that despite the failure of Vueling on BCN, they'd look at opportunities ex Belfast. He said if route development fund was offered, Madrid by Iberia Express could be a real possibility.

Dublin - China and Thailand. But the former is reported to be coming on line from winter next.

[canberra97]

Fairdealfrank


With regards to Nassau I think he meant the transfer of NAS and GCM from LHR to LGW to join the rest of the Caribbean destinations.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Could we see any full-service airlines from Eastern Europe operating to MAN? LOT (to WAW), Czech Airlines (to PRG), TAROM (to OTP), Bulgaria Air (to SOF)?


All four of these carriers have served these very routes in times past. They eventually succumbed to competition from more nimble no-frills competitors (from LPL as well as MAN). Three of those four cities are now served from MAN by no-frills carriers, so there would be robust competition to contend with. Czech Airlines has now repositioned itself as a no-frills operation in its own right, even down to serving unlikely obscure airports.

The "logistical headache" of re-positioning BA aircraft to be based out of MAN is actually not that hard.

But it is also not a compelling proposition when they can just leave the heavy lifting to their codeshare partner and close buddy American Airlines. It is certainly less hard for them.

MAN - DXB (Using QF Metal)

Aircraft enthusiasts would welcome this, but what is in it for the airline? High-volume bookings already come in via the existing codeshare arrangements.

It did not work with SAA but should do with the right aircraft

Actually, SAA did fine on MAN-JNB/CPT for several years. Everything changed when international sanctions against South Africa were lifted following the abolition of Apartheid. Overnight, a world of international opportunities opened up to SAA's limited fleet resources. New glamorous global destinations were launched, MAN made way. Of course, today's SAA is a very different beast and the market has changed beyond recognition. The VFR market has collapsed (more dramatically than Canada). The draw for South Africa now has to be tourism-driven, but some of its cities are today considered very high risk for visitors from a safety perspective.

Bangkok - as mentioned, another good TCX route.

Leisure operators such as Thomas Cook and Thomson will likely favour the exotic resorts rather than the capital. An airline such as Thai can offer connections across Thailand from BKK; TCX and TOM cannot do this. The island beaches are the big mass-market draw. However, if they do decide to offer BKK I'll be delighted.

Delhi/Mumbai - quite how AI have not opened this is beyond me. BHX do really well on the route

Ethnic distribution is a key consideration here. Political correctness urges us to speak of "Asians", but Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are not the same (let alone other nationalities comprising Asia). Birmingham and the Midlands has a very large ethnic Indian population, including a concentration of Sikhs who travel to Amritsar. The North West is home to far more Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, as are some areas of West Yorkshire. There are Indians resident in the NW, but on nothing like the scale of those living around Birmingham Airport's catchment. Having said that, I do believe that MAN could support a service to India (it is a BRIC and a tourism hotspot, after all) but BHX undeniably has the stronger market in this instance.

Air Asia X have sniffed around this route [Kuala Lumpur] but were put off by APD.


Never say never. MAN remains a medium-term objective for Air Asia X according to some informed sources. MAN wasn't top pick in earlier rounds, but it is still on the agenda.

[wallp]

There's already LHR-NAS 5 days/week, extended to GCM 4 days/week.

Yes indeed there is and it's a route that could comfortably fit into BA's long haul network at Gatwick especially now the route is switching from a 767 to 777. That's what I was speculating about.

[wallp]

How about

Luton to Stockholm
Luton to Oslo

Aside from the CPH battle between FR and EZY, Scandinavia is still woefully underserved at Luton. Maybe an opportunity for Norwegian to develop a new operation or for easyJet to expand to countries in Europe they don't currently serve?

[Ribble56]

Looks like it irks some people that Wizzair use Liverpool, indeed expanding at Liverpool an obscure airport that Czech Airlines also use.

[mwm991]

Looks like it irks some people that Wizzair use Liverpool, indeed expanding at Liverpool an obscure airport that Czech Airlines also use.

Indeed, the way people go on you'd also think Merseyside was the location of some rural backwater airport like PIK or MME.

[wallp]

How about some more destinations from LCY (Yes, I know some have been tried before but that doesn't mean they can't work & this is speculation)

LCY - TXL
LCY - CPH
LCY - MAN
LCY - LIS
LCY - VIE

[marko1]

Here's what I wish from Brs :-

Oslo and Stockholm
Tallinn and Riga
Athens Mykonos
Istanbul
One of the big middle eastern 3
New York
Cancun
Orlando
Toronto
Seville almeria
Banjul
Lyon Biarritz
Cologne
Zurich

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Looks like it irks some people that Wizzair use Liverpool, indeed expanding at Liverpool an obscure airport that Czech Airlines also use.


The UK-Poland market represents around 6 million pax per annum. MAN is woefully under-represented in this market, hence calls for services by Wizzair and others from there in particular. I have not noted any calls on here for Wizzair to leave Liverpool; there is a defined market for both airports. Please note that my posting did not label LPL as an obscure airport. Perhaps you think it is? Either way, its catchment area for Eastern Europe overlaps that of MAN but does not duplicate the majority of it. By the way, the same also applies to DSA and BHX ... you appear to believe this is some kind of LPL v MAN issue?

Liverpool is cheaper and half an hour down the road.

Half an hour down the road from where? This depends on one's individual location and preferred mode of transport. Early morning LPL departures and late evening LPL arrivals mean a costly hotel nightstop for me and I'm located in the MAN area. All LPL flights imply much higher ground transport costs from my location also. The customer proposition presented by using the two airports is very different (and of course this applies both ways). Densely-used routes such as those to Poland require exposure from both airports, but certainly more than the current ten weekly departures offered from MAN.

As for LPL being 'cheaper', can you tell us exactly how much cheaper than MAN it actually is (since you seem to know?). Do you suppose Ryanair are paying big bucks at MAN? I suspect that the difference paid by ULCC's at the two airports is very small indeed, and remember that airport charges at one end of a route represent a tiny proportion of the overall cost of providing a scheduled service.

[mwm991]

Its not a Brussels/Charleroi Glasgow/Prestwick big area small area comparison. Liverpool and Merseyside is a decent sized market of it's own. People seem to think its merely a pawn for Manchester and no more. There probably is a market at MAN for WIZZ but not at LPL's expense and based on their geographical diaspora in regions with multiple airports they seem to favour either one or the other. In the NW its LPL at the moment, in the same way with LTN over STN in London, DSA over LBA in Yorkshire and GLA over EDI in Scotland. They are prepared to go for the cheaper option if it means they are still centrally located to a population base.

[adfly]

I may as well throw in my 2 pence:

BOH-MAD (FR)
BOH-PSA (FR)
BOH-CIA (FR)
BOH-WAW/WMI (FR/Wizz)
BOH-KTW (Wizz)
BOH-HER (TOM)
BOH-LCA (TOM)
BOH-CCS (FR)
BOH-INN (OS)
BOH-TSF (FR)
BOH-DUB (FR)

SOU-FRA (BM/BE)
SOU-CPH (BM)
SOU-ZRH (BM)
SOU-IBZ (BE/TOM/TCX/Volotea)
SOU-MAH (BE/TOM/TCX)
SOU-VCE (BE/Volotea)
SOU-BCN (BE/VY)
SOU-FCO (VY)
SOU-TFS (TOM) (Would need a 757)
SOU-ACE (TOM (as above)
SOU-NCE (BE/HOP!)

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Liverpool and Merseyside is a decent sized market of it's own.

Agreed. Note that my postings support this view.

People seem to think its merely a pawn for Manchester and no more.

Who exactly? Is this a chip-on-the-shoulder problem?

There probably is a market at MAN for WIZZ but not at LPL's expense

Again, nobody here has called for a switch from LPL, only for the addition of MAN flights as well.

based on their geographical diaspora in regions with multiple airports they seem to favour either one or the other. In the NW its LPL at the moment, in the same way with LTN over STN in London, DSA over LBA in Yorkshire and GLA over EDI in Scotland.

Its not a Brussels/Charleroi Glasgow/Prestwick big area small area comparison.

You can't really argue these points in parallel. Are LPL/MAN fighting for broadly the same market as per BRU/CRL, GLA/PIK or not? My view is that there is sufficient disparity between the MAN and LPL catchments for Eastern Europe to justify provision of services from both airports.

They are prepared to go for the cheaper option if it means they are still centrally located to a population base.

People presume far too much weighting on the cost of airport charges at one end of a route as a proportion of the overall expense of providing a service. Strip out fuel, salaries, aircraft financing, insurance, nav charges, costs at the reciprocal airport and you will appreciate how small a deal this really is. Some special-case airports such as LHR and LCY levy much higher fees than their peers due to unique circumstances, but this is not the case at LPL or MAN. Both airports offer terms which have proven conducive to a substantial ULCC presence. So we cannot glibly claim that MAN is "expensive" and LPL is "cheap". Ryanair appear quite at ease with the deals offered by both airports ... can there be such a chasm between comparative charges levied at the two?

Note also that LPL is centrally located to a different area of population than the one to which Manchester is centrally located.

[tigertanaka]

North East wishlist:

NCL-LCY - I know the train is quick but East London to NCL is nearly 4 hours when you factor in the tube ride. BA are creaming it on the LHR-NCL route at the moment judging by what I have paid for flights and the load factors I have seen.
NCL-LGW - I know Easyjet couldnt make it stack up last time but with LGW becoming more connection friendly it might work again. A code share with BA to access their LGW routes would be ideal.
NCL-FRA - I know NCL is connected to the KL/AF & BA hubs but being connected to FRA would hugely increase my options, especially for getting to the more niche airports in Europe. I have to go to LNZ in a few weeks and I am forced to fly out of EDI and returning to LCY to avoid 2 airport changes.
NCL-OSL - Ideally it would be NCL-ARN but there is no chance of that happening. I have always been very impressed with Norwegian.
NCL-IST - lots of speculation on this over recent years. EK seem to be doing well out of NCL so I guess if they do not go to a double daily flight then TK or QR might be tempted.

Anything from MME would be brilliant but I do not hold out much hope.

[VentureGo]

To add to tigertanakas comments:
NCL to Stavanger & Bergen from Norwegian or other LCC (Braathens had a daily 737 service to Oslo,Stavanger & Bergen inmid 2000s before SAS takeover, so a low cost operation would surely bring in volume. Wilderoe exiting SVG end of this month. Maybe Airport would want to attract Full service operator to maintain a equal split and better Airport margin on revenue.

Add Berlin & Milan (MXP)

Gatwick may work with connecting to Alliances as well as BA, but these tend to be fed into larger hubs: Star via Lufthansa/EW, Skyteam via AMS/CDG.
Low cost carriers could feed into all airlines if agreements are successful. Gatwick Airport are also launching a connecting agreement which compensates for missed connections, but does not arrange through ticketing/baggage.

David Laws (Newcastle Airport CEO) recent article - Route plans about 4/5th through article:
Monday interview: David Laws, chief executive of Newcastle International Airport - Chronicle Live (http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/monday-interview-david-laws-chief-10885389)

Double Daily to Dubai and Leisure service to Las Vegas on his radar!

Quite a few people from our region also do Orlando either via Manchester with Virgin or via LHR (VS,BA/US Airlines) May be theres an opportunity for another service to Orlando from NCL as well as TOM (TOM and TCX used to compete/serve Orlando at least twice a week not so long ago)

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

The MAN-JFK/EWR market is one which has seen substantial growth ex MAN in 2015. The figures (per Scotty Dog of SSC) are as follows:

JFK: an increase of 119,033.

-2014, 112,996 were carried on the route.
-2015, 232,029 were carried on the route.

EWR: a decrease of 2,878

-2014, 114,317 were carried on the route.
-2015, 111,439 were carried on the route.


I think I am right in saying that United are the only operators of the EWR route for both 2014 and 15. I am not entirely sure who the new entrants to the JFK route were, but it may have been DL and TCX.

In broad terms, the route has shown the ability to prosper and grow rapidly. The issue as has been alluded to are the flight times which are all bunched in the morning. I doubt BA will use their own metal to serve this but I would not put it beyond AA to introduce an evening departure (although I assume all flights are morning departure/arrivals for good reason).

[AvGeek1]

Are there any other routes that you think Iberia/Iberia Express could operate from Madrid?

Also are there any routes that Vueling are still to add from their Barcelona hub? Any big markets that they are missing?

[davidjohnson6]

Dobbo - if a flight leaves Manchester about 10 am local time, it arrives in New York around 1 pm local time, leaving plenty of opportunity for passengers going elsewhere in North America to catch onward connecting flights.

Change that 10 am departure from Manchester to a 7 pm departure, allow for a couple of hours for immigration and changing plane and the number of onward connecting short-haul flights leaving New York around 11 pm is pretty small. Spending a night at JFK is not a particularly popular option amongst those who are time-poor, cash-rich and travelling business class - i.e. the most profitable customers.

London can manage an evening departure to New York because the number of people travelling just between these two cities is so large. Manchester doesn't have this luxury.

Now factor in that an aircraft leaving Manchester around 7 pm probably has to arrive in Manchester about 5 pm to have a decent chance of offloading passengers, clean the aircraft, load catering, new passengers, luggage, and allow a margin for small delays. That means the aircraft has to have left New York about 6 am local time. Domestic flights within the USA would have to arrive in New York about 4 am to give a fair chance of making the connection - i.e. really not popular with most connecting passengers, never mind any night noise rules the airport might have to obey.

Barring any special holiday events, flights from Manchester to New York run on a commercial basis pretty much have to leave no later than UK lunchtime to be commercially viable.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Thanks David - understood. There must be suitable window for a later departure/arrival time. I admit I have not given it too much thought. But something timed around a 5-7pm departure from MAN Id have thought would be popular.

Do we know anything about VS/DL plans for MAN? I know the BS to ATL route has been doing well, as has DL to JFK. VS are often mooted (as in this thread) as possible operators of a SFO and/or LAX route. I don't know what presence DL has at these locations but it would likely be relevant to any decision.

[davidjohnson6]

Dobbo - the only flights I can see leaving Europe around 6 pm to go to NYC are on aircraft operated by a European airline departing from one of their very large hubs with all the benefits of feeder traffic. Thus Air France form Paris, KLM from Amsterdam, Scandinavian from Copenhagen, Swiss from Zurich, etc...
The only proper exceptions to this rule in all of Europe seems to be at London which has the advantage of linking the commercial capitals of North America and Europe with all the senior management of major global corporations travelling back and forth willing to pay big bucks for a flight ticket. London has almost 30 flights per day to NYC - yes almost 10 times as many as Manchester

If British Airways were to base several or more long-haul aircraft in Manchester *and* re-open a hub at MAN, an early evening flight to NY might be feasible. Until then, daily 6 pm flights from Manchester to the USA would certainly be popular with Mancunians but terrible on profitability and are thus looking really quite unlikely to happen.

[Mickey Kaye]

EMA - AMS

KLM the operator

[MANFOD]

MAN-NEW YORK TIMINGS.
But something timed around a 5-7pm departure from MAN Id have thought would be popular.

As DJ6 points out, this would not really work for pax connecting on in the US.
However, given the increase in capacity to New York and that flights appear to be well used, it would be interesting to know how much of the traffic is purely O&D, (or is p2p the correct term?).

For transfer pax going on to say the west coast, the 3 hour time difference does provide some help. Nevertheless, I would suggest the latest timing to connect to say SFO would be a 13.30 departure from MAN arriving New York about 16.15. Both United and American have flights to SFO from EWR/JFK at 18.30 for dates I checked in June, arriving 22.10. Later flights at around 20.30 arrive after midnight so hardly ideal.

Looking at summer schedules, it appears Delta's JFK flight from MAN is now later at 12.45 with a 15.25 arrival, so there is some spread of options from 09.25 UA and 10.15 AA.

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking about the possibility of Ryanair opening a CWL base, and they could maybe operate these routes;

Cardiff-London (Stansted)
Cardiff-Amsterdam
Cardiff-Dublin
Cardiff-Alicante
Cardiff-Edinburgh
Cardiff-Malaga

Thoughts on these routes? Any other routes that could be realistically operated from CWL?

[wallp]

What an excellent list wallp! I definately agree that there should be more Italian routes from Luton. Also that easyJet should provide some more sensible times on the Luton-Prague route in competition with Wizz.

Also Gatwick could have many more long-haul destinations than it currently has and I think more US routes like Miami could definately be on the cards!

The Wizz timings to PRG are appalling. Am not entirely sure who they're aimed at which is why I think EZY or even Wizz could do well offering daytime departure/return on what is a popular route. Am amazed no one has seen the potential of the route.

I've been wondering also about some other destinations

Luton - Kraków (easyJet or Ryanair)
Luton - Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Seville (easyJet)
Luton to Verona (easyJet)
Luton to Antwerp (VLM)
Luton to Brussels (VLM)
Luton to Tirana (Wizz)

[All names taken]

Can anyone explain to me the difference between Route Speculation (the title of this thread) and Wild Fantasy Lists (not the title of this thread)?

I don't think we're far off someone suggesting Cardiff to China because there are a lot of Chinese chippies in the area and therefore any airline would make a 'killing'. Or perhaps a Newcastle to Mexico City route because someone was talking to some Mexicans in a nightclub and they were complaining about hard it was to get to Newcastle.

Perhaps as a rule of thumb, before posting these fantasy lists, posters might ask themselves: would they launch such a route using their own money, (as opposed to expecting someone else to do it with their money) would they expect a profit from doing so and more importantly how would they expect to make a profit?

[SWBKCB]

Blimey, wish I'd read this before I gave all that money to those Spanish speaking blokes down the Bigg Market.

They reckoned we'd make a killing on Newcastle to Mexico with a couple of 767's and we'd get a good deal for cash.... :eek:

[AvGeek1]

Can anyone explain to me the difference between Route Speculation (the title of this thread) and Wild Fantasy Lists (not the title of this thread)?

I don't think we're far off someone suggesting Cardiff to China because there are a lot of Chinese chippies in the area and therefore any airline would make a 'killing'. Or perhaps a Newcastle to Mexico City route because someone was talking to some Mexicans in a nightclub and they were complaining about hard it was to get to Newcastle.

Perhaps as a rule of thumb, before posting these fantasy lists, posters might ask themselves: would they launch such a route using their own money, (as opposed to expecting someone else to do it with their money) would they expect a profit from doing so and more importantly how would they expect to make a profit?

As the leader of this thread, I always say in my posts can anyone think of any routes that would be realistic and successful, but some people do go off on a tangent. I can't really do anything about people's imaginations going wild I'm afraid, just do what I do and ignore their posts!

[AvGeek1]

The Wizz timings to PRG are appalling. Am not entirely sure who they're aimed at which is why I think EZY or even Wizz could do well offering daytime departure/return on what is a popular route. Am amazed no one has seen the potential of the route.

I've been wondering also about some other destinations

Luton - Kraków (easyJet or Ryanair)
Luton - Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Seville (easyJet)
Luton to Verona (easyJet)
Luton to Antwerp (VLM)
Luton to Brussels (VLM)
Luton to Tirana (Wizz)

Your ideas are quite similar to mine! Especially with Kraków being the second biggest city in Poland, without a connection to Luton, home of most Eastern European routes! I always wondered why Wizz never set up a Kraków base. Also I feel like even if easyJet won't operate a Prague route maybe even Monarch could give it a try!

I think that easyJet has so much potential out of Luton, but cannot grow at the moment because the airport has reached capacity.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

MANFOD

I think that was partially what I had in mind. The issue seems to me to be whether the MAN-JFK/EWR O&D market (i.e. Non-connecting PAX) is strong enough to demand a "late" service.

The jump in 2014-2015 figures seems to be a good indication that it may be. However the wider figures for MAN-USA traffic for this period indicates that overall growth is not as robust. Do these flights attract connecting passengers? If so where do they go to or originate from?

MAN "suffers" from being very well connected to the hubs of LHR, AMS and CDG. Using your example of a west coast transfer, passengers have the option of routing via these hubs on BA, KL, AF respectively (I have omitted to include DUB &EI here but I'm sure the point is made). These routings also have the additional advantage of likely being on a more modern product than the B757 and B767 that operate ex MAN and whatever service is on the internal US flight.

Then there is the often mooted possibility of a direct west coast service from a "major" airline. How would this affect services like JFK or ATL - both of which are currently very successful.

I'd like to think the general demand is there, but when you have significant momentum of funnelling passengers in these routes on frequent flights via LHR in particular, it is difficult to overcome that inertia without significant effort. Whether this can be achieved by one or more of the U.S. airlines or VS is at best uncertain.

[wallp]

Your ideas are quite similar to mine! Especially with Kraków being the second biggest city in Poland, without a connection to Luton, home of most Eastern European routes! I always wondered why Wizz never set up a Kraków base. Also I feel like even if easyJet won't operate a Prague route maybe even Monarch could give it a try!

I think that easyJet has so much potential out of Luton, but cannot grow at the moment because the airport has reached capacity.

I think you're right. Once the airport expansion completes we'll see a whole raft of new routes and not just with easyJet. Vueling seem to be getting their feet under the table at Luton so I wouldn't bet against a major expansion by them too in due course

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking about British Airways' Gatwick operation and how they are increasing their presence, with many new routes including Seville, Valencia, New York, Porto, etc, being added either recently or in the upcoming months. I was thinking about routes they could operate in the future and this is what I came up with:

Gatwick-Dublin (an early 7am-8am could compliment other EI services, plus another evening service.)

Gatwick-Gran Canaria (Spanish tourism booming at the moment and could operate year-round, could replace Sharm el Sheikh)

Gatwick-Palma de Mallorca (Spanish tourism booming, one of the busiest routes from Gatwick in the summer)

Gatwick-Berlin Tegel

Gatwick-Milan Malpensa (I have always wondered, why BA operate both LIN & MXP from LHR. Surely they could operate LIN from LHR for business traffic and MXP from LGW for leisure traffic. Connecting traffic wouldn't suffer as they have LIN to connect. It would also free up a few slots at LHR.)

Gatwick-Paris CDG

Gatwick-Miami

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

The trouble with a lot of suggestions is that in isolation they might work, but a combination of factors might make them impossible. For example, MAN-JNB or MAN-CPT might work in isolation from the other. However, if they were to both launch at the same or similar time they would dilute each other and possibly make them both unviable.

[Peter47]

Possibly MAN - JNB. I've just been checking the CAA data & the LHR - JNB market was 940k in 2014. LHR - CPT was 423k so a few weekly frequencies from MAN in the winter season would make sense.

I saw in a CAA publication a few years ago - before CX started the route - that (from memory) 140,000 passengers transferred a year at LHR between MAN & LHR so I wasn't surprised when CX started the route. It must surely go daily.

UK - LAX was nearly 1.4m pax p.a. in 2014 & UK - SFO approaching 1.0m (including transfers) so 10% of passengers could justify a daily flight to each. Surely MAN could manage this?

It is interesting that the ME3 are doing very well with eastbound traffic - over 3m pax travelled from regional airports to AUH, DOH or DXB in 2014 most of them doubtless transferring on to the Indian sub-continent or Australasia.

There are fewer westbound routes although I suspect that a lot of traffic transfers at DUB & AMS - & that IAG plans to increase the former. This may be because the ME3 are more concerned about volume (you could argue ad nauseam about subsidies) the US & UK carriers need high yield traffic and it is probably the lack of high yield traffic holding back MAN - LAX/SFO. As said probably less of an issue for VS than BA and not one at all for DY or TCX. There are 3.1m pax p.a. to the US from regional airports but many go to the leisure destinations of LAS & MCO.

Lastly could LGW - Winnipeg support at least a weekly frequency by TS? I seem to remember Wardair operating it may years ago.

As an aside I was asked to look at the feasibility of starting a new route from LCY when I was doing my M.Sc. back in 1994 and suggested LCY - Bern. I was only around 20 years ahead of my time!

[adfly]

Possibly MAN - JNB. I've just been checking the CAA data & the LHR - JNB market was 940k in 2014. LHR - CPT was 423k so a few weekly frequencies from MAN in the winter season would make sense.

I saw in a CAA publication a few years ago - before CX started the route - that (from memory) 140,000 passengers transferred a year at LHR between MAN & LHR so I wasn't surprised when CX started the route. It must surely go daily.

UK - LAX was nearly 1.4m pax p.a. in 2014 & UK - SFO approaching 1.0m (including transfers) so 10% of passengers could justify a daily flight to each. Surely MAN could manage this?

It is interesting that the ME3 are doing very well with eastbound traffic - over 3m pax travelled from regional airports to AUH, DOH or DXB in 2014 most of them doubtless transferring on to the Indian sub-continent or Australasia.

There are fewer westbound routes although I suspect that a lot of traffic transfers at DUB & AMS - & that IAG plans to increase the former. This may be because the ME3 are more concerned about volume (you could argue ad nauseam about subsidies) the US & UK carriers need high yield traffic and it is probably the lack of high yield traffic holding back MAN - LAX/SFO. As said probably less of an issue for VS than BA and not one at all for DY or TCX. There are 3.1m pax p.a. to the US from regional airports but many go to the leisure destinations of LAS & MCO.

Lastly could LGW - Winnipeg support at least a weekly frequency by TS? I seem to remember Wardair operating it may years ago.

As an aside I was asked to look at the feasibility of starting a new route from LCY when I was doing my M.Sc. back in 1994 and suggested LCY - Bern. I was only around 20 years ahead of my time!

Gatwick - Winnipeg will be served weekly by Westjet this summer.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Peter47

I agree. There is a big difference between the present (or rather soon to commence) MAN-LAX service by TCX and a year round daily (or at least 4x weekly) service by a mainstream airline.

I feel that with the correct feed from BE and some improved surface access it would be possible to run 4x weekly to LAX and SFO. The question is how that would work with airframes (it would take more than one and would need to be used elsewhere over the week) but that aside I feel both could be supportrd.

I feel differently on the CPT/JNB question. CPT seems to make much more sense as a leisure service but I doubt both could be supported year round due in part to the SA economy.

[wallp]

I was thinking about British Airways' Gatwick operation and how they are increasing their presence, with many new routes including Seville, Valencia, New York, Porto, etc, being added either recently or in the upcoming months. I was thinking about routes they could operate in the future and this is what I came up with:

Gatwick-Dublin (an early 7am-8am could compliment other EI services, plus another evening service.)

Gatwick-Gran Canaria (Spanish tourism booming at the moment and could operate year-round, could replace Sharm el Sheikh)

Gatwick-Palma de Mallorca (Spanish tourism booming, one of the busiest routes from Gatwick in the summer)

Gatwick-Berlin Tegel

Gatwick-Milan Malpensa (I have always wondered, why BA operate both LIN & MXP from LHR. Surely they could operate LIN from LHR for business traffic and MXP from LGW for leisure traffic. Connecting traffic wouldn't suffer as they have LIN to connect. It would also free up a few slots at LHR.)

Gatwick-Paris CDG

Gatwick-Miami

The issue with Milan is that the main airport there these days is MXP. LIN which I used last year is much smaller so fewer if any connection opportunities.

I agree about routes like Berlin which could do well for BA from LGW and even Paris which was once dead in the water after Eurostar arrived, now seems to be recovering with new routes from LGW & LTN recently. Maybe BA could make it work again? The question is, so they want to step on the toes of Vueling who are doing the CDG route?

Miami is an interesting choice. It's a route that surely has leisure potential for any long hail operator and thus could work from LGW.

With the decline in the Egypt and probably Turkish tourist routes this year, the likes of Spain and Portugal could benefit so routes like PMI may well see an upturn which BA could take advantage of.

If BA plan carefully, they in conjunction with Vueling could begin to develop an operation at LGW which starts to seriously rival EZY

[chaps1954]

Dobbo Dobbo
I think TCX are just testing the waters, at present they don`t have
the aircraft available to do it more, my feeling is if it does well
they subject to sufficient aircraft increase to 4 weekly 2017 and maybe
operate all year perhaps 2 weekly in winter but you have to look
at how many aircraft are needed to service the route

Ian

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Chaps (Ian)

Agreed. To start up gauging frequency they would need to expand their fleet. I don't know where they would get airframes, crew etc from and this might leave them vulnerable to VS or another operator.

[AvGeek1]

The issue with Milan is that the main airport there these days is MXP. LIN which I used last year is much smaller so fewer if any connection opportunities.

I agree about routes like Berlin which could do well for BA from LGW and even Paris which was once dead in the water after Eurostar arrived, now seems to be recovering with new routes from LGW & LTN recently. Maybe BA could make it work again? The question is, so they want to step on the toes of Vueling who are doing the CDG route?

Miami is an interesting choice. It's a route that surely has leisure potential for any long hail operator and thus could work from LGW.

With the decline in the Egypt and probably Turkish tourist routes this year, the likes of Spain and Portugal could benefit so routes like PMI may well see an upturn which BA could take advantage of.

If BA plan carefully, they in conjunction with Vueling could begin to develop an operation at LGW which starts to seriously rival EZY

I think that BA need to start concentrating more on their Gatwick base since Heathrow cannot possibly sustain any more flights.

About the Milan answer, I feel that people would only connect at LHR to Milan and would not connect in Milan for onward travel. There are plenty of routes to other Italian cities, so I don't see it being a problem.

We'll have to see what they have planned for W16 and S17!

[wallp]

AvGeek1 I hope you're right. I think there's a real opportunity for BA at Gatwick especially if they factor Vueling & Aer Lingus in to their plans. Presumably when the terminal moves happen, both will end up in the South Terminal. They can use the move to generate a real buzz about their Gatwick operation and start to put some real pressure on easyJet

[AvGeek1]

AvGeek1 I hope you're right. I think there's a real opportunity for BA at Gatwick especially if they factor Vueling & Aer Lingus in to their plans. Presumably when the terminal moves happen, both will end up in the South Terminal. They can use the move to generate a real buzz about their Gatwick operation and start to put some real pressure on easyJet

I hope I'm right too, so much potential. People actually don't realise as soon as they hear 'BA' they think 'expensive' but it's not true in most cases. Many times I've flown BA from LGW and they have been cheaper than EZY every time!

[wallp]

I hope I'm right too, so much potential. People actually don't realise as soon as they hear 'BA' they think 'expensive' but it's not true in most cases. Many times I've flown BA from LGW and they have been cheaper than EZY every time!

I couldn't agree more and that's not a dig at EZY, I love them. Competition is only a good thing so let's hope BA get their act together at LGW

[AvGeek1]

I couldn't agree more and that's not a dig at EZY, I love them. Competition is only a good thing so let's hope BA get their act together at LGW

No certainly not, I agree that EZY are a great airline too and have also flown the multiple times. But BA always win price wise for peak summer flights. Talking of easyJet they have not announced any new routes from Gatwick in S16 and they are ending multiple routes. What routes are they still to add from LGW or have they run out of destinations?

[Firstaid]

Speaking of Easyjet, does anybody also think they are ignoring a lot of potential at Glasgow and just focusing on Edinburgh. They are basing an eighth plane at Edinburgh but Glasgow is still at four and there is so many potential destinations currently unserved from Glasgow. With Ryanair's arrival they need to cement their position at Glasgow before Ryanair starts to really pressure them on routes.

[BAladdy]

Getting there act together is something that they have already done. BA's shorthaul operation at LGW was operating at a loss about 3 years ago. It is now profitable. Yes it could do more to improve it's route network.

[110Cornets]

There are fewer westbound routes although I suspect that a lot of traffic transfers at DUB & AMS - & that IAG plans to increase the former. This may be because the ME3 are more concerned about volume (you could argue ad nauseam about subsidies) the US & UK carriers need high yield traffic and it is probably the lack of high yield traffic holding back MAN - LAX/SFO. As said probably less of an issue for VS than BA and not one at all for DY or TCX. There are 3.1m pax p.a. to the US from regional airports but many go to the leisure destinations of LAS & MCO.

I think your post was talking about regional traffic in general, as opposed to MAN specifically, but a mildly interesting fact for this Summer's schedule from Manchester:

There are 51 weekly services to the Middle East ex MAN during August, and 101 (almost double) westbound to the US and Canada alone.

SFO seems MAN's biggest gap in North American coverage in terms of direct destinations - but with LA only just re-introduced at 2 x weekly, and numerous indirect options, I wonder how likely that is in the near future?

(NB Excludes Mexico/Caribbean - and PK if they still operate to NYC because I believe it's still just one way UK-US.)

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

As LAX is currently 2x weekly and is seasonal, I don't think it is quite "there" yet. If LAX and SFO would be at least 4x weekly and year round that would pretty much tell the tale of whether it is sustainable.

The airline operating is likely to need some feed at MAN and in the US - and I don't know who is best places for that to make it happen.

[WHBM]

UK - LAX was nearly 1.4m pax p.a. in 2014 & UK - SFO approaching 1.0m (including transfers) so 10% of passengers could justify a daily flight to each. Surely MAN could manage this?

It is interesting that the ME3 are doing very well with eastbound traffic - over 3m pax travelled from regional airports to AUH, DOH or DXB in 2014 most of them doubtless transferring on to the Indian sub-continent or Australasia.
You have rather answered your first question with your second. There's a lot of traffic to Abu Dhabi, not because of the intrinsic attractions of the city but because of transfers onward to 101 final destinations. And likewise a lot of the traffic on LAX/SFO to London is transferring on, whether local or long distance (the absence of any West Coast to Africa flights has long made Heathrow a significant connection point for such intercontinental passengers).

Look at your high revenue and regular traffic. LAX has much entertainment and media traffic, SFO has much IT industry travel. Both have significant UK contacts in London and the South-East, with very little in comparison in the North-West. For US-based travellers in particular, sticking on their favourite alliance is important to them. Californian points offer very few connecting opportunities, unlike say Chicago, because there's nothing beyond there. Heathrow offers a lot on BA, but Manchester doesn't have this.

[sunday8pm]

Any potentially viable routes from EMA that are currently not operated? Easy still haven't returned after many years away now. With only a couple of routes from BHX, they have a very small presence in the Midlands. If they were to return:

EMA - PRG
EMA - MUC
EMA - DUS
EMA - CGN

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking about some potential future European Emirates routes that could realistically be operated in the future. I came up with a few ideas;

Dubai - Valencia
Dubai - Malaga
Dubai - Edinburgh
Dubai - Paris (Orly)
Dubai - Helsinki

As anyone else got any suggestions and may I remind you to keep them realistic and viable suggestions, not just your wish lists!

Also are there any other routes outside of Europe that could be operated in the future?

[Lon12]

I definitely agree about Dubai-Valencia route. :ok:

[LAX_LHR]

Well, since this thread started, one of the potential routes touted by a few people, Manchester-San Fransisco, has now come to fruition with Thomas Cook.

Shows that not quite everything in this thread is pie in the sky!

[AerRyan]

SNN-PVD is a likely route, ASL Airlines France have applied for a licence to operate CDG-SNN-PVD.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Well, since this thread started, one of the potential routes touted by a few people, Manchester-San Fransisco, has now come to fruition with Thomas Cook.

Shows that not quite everything in this thread is pie in the sky!

LAX_LHR - By my money, next on the MAN hitlist is (in no particular order):

Shanghai (Air China)
Cape Town (TCX)
Bangkok (TOM/TCX/???)
Mumbai/Delhi (Air India)
Tokyo (JAL)
Kuala Lumpur (???)

Obviously in addition to increased frequencies and/or new entrants on the routes with only 2/3 weekly or seasonal frequency.

[LandingConfig]

I was thinking about some potential future European Emirates routes that could realistically be operated in the future. I came up with a few ideas;

Dubai - Valencia
Dubai - Malaga
Dubai - Edinburgh
Dubai - Paris (Orly)
Dubai - Helsinki

As anyone else got any suggestions and may I remind you to keep them realistic and viable suggestions, not just your wish lists!

Also are there any other routes outside of Europe that could be operated in the future?

Malaga is unlikely. Edinburgh is highly unlikely given their large presence at GLA.

The rest seem possible, particularly Helsinki.

[airworld]

TOM To return the

POP
GOA


Would like to see another SFB!

[AvGeek1]

Well, since this thread started, one of the potential routes touted by a few people, Manchester-San Fransisco, has now come to fruition with Thomas Cook.

Shows that not quite everything in this thread is pie in the sky!

I wasn't saying that all of the routes proposed on here were not realistic and could not come to fruitation, some people just go off on a tangent and think of routes that are not viable and our just part of there wishlists.

I'm glad that TCX are building a good long haul presence in MAN and wish them the best of luck! They have done well with adversiting the long haul flights and holidays.

[AvGeek1]

Malaga is unlikely. Edinburgh is highly unlikely given their large presence at GLA.

The rest seem possible, particularly Helsinki.

Maybe Malaga isn't a route for the future, I was just thinking as there are apparently more Middle Eastern people visiting the province. Also TK do fly there and with an A330 in the summer season.

I know that EK operates to Glasgow, but could they not operate to both. They are teo Scottish cities with similar populations and I would have thought that Edinburgh would be the more touristy one of the two.

I was also wondering about why EK don't operate to more secondary airports like ORY and EWR.

I think Qatar have an advantage over EK in that they can operate to lots more European cities with their A320 family aircraft.

[mwm991]

Any idea when the TCX GLA S17 schedule is out? I'm going between GLA and the West Coast next year so would be nice to connect over there as opposed to the usual DUB, AMS, LHR. UA are a rip-off as well, and not a fan of AA. MIA, BOS and JFK could all work I'd think as seasonal services.

[Firstaid]

Thomas Cook seem to be becoming the go-to airline for people wanting to go America and the Caribbean on holiday but not wanting to connect via London, Paris etc.
Heres some routes I think they would do well on:
GLA - JFK
GLA - MIA
MAN - GRU
BHX - MCO

[LAX_LHR]

The preliminary long haul schedule for TCX summer 2017 is on their website, and GLA thus far remains with the same routes as 2016.

Still plenty of time for that to change though.

[sf01]

Any idea when the TCX GLA S17 schedule is out? I'm going between GLA and the West Coast next year so would be nice to connect over there as opposed to the usual DUB, AMS, LHR. UA are a rip-off as well, and not a fan of AA. MIA, BOS and JFK could all work I'd think as seasonal services.

Hi, MCO and LAS schedules from Glasgow have been released I think some new services could happen but it's obviously over a year away so things could as said happen I think most tours from MAN served TCX would do well at GLA considering the Las Vegas success

[A350Saltire]

Any idea when the TCX GLA S17 schedule is out? I'm going between GLA and the West Coast next year so would be nice to connect over there as opposed to the usual DUB, AMS, LHR. UA are a rip-off as well, and not a fan of AA. MIA, BOS and JFK could all work I'd think as seasonal services.

What about DL from EDI to JFK?

[wallp]

So I see Shaheen Air are starting flights to MAN to ISB. How about flights to London too, an ISB - LTN service would be perfect

[mwm991]

Forgot all about that, already booked up for my jaunt this year via LHR, but will consider that in the future!

[Lon12]

I hope to see LHR-VLC one day.

[sunday8pm]

So I see Shaheen Air are starting flights to MAN to ISB. How about flights to London too, an ISB - LTN service would be perfect

Haven't they launched from EMA as well?

[chaps1954]

No just Manchester with I think Copenhagen next

Ian

[ATNotts]

TOM To return the

POP
GOA


Would like to see another SFB!

Do you mean Genoa (GOA) or Goa (GOI)? I guess both would be interesting, but the latter more exciting than the former; and probably not pie in the sky, unlike a few others on this thread!

[sunday8pm]

No chance of Manchester - Singapore direct?

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

No chance of Manchester - Singapore direct?

It is currently direct, but not "non-stop".

I think yes, when the A350 appears in greater numbers. Whether it will be daily, and what the effect will be on MUC services remains to be seen.

[AvGeek1]

Is is exactly what I was thinking if there were plans to decouple the Manchester-Munich-Singapore and make the Manchester flight direct, to compete with CX into the Asian market.

[A350Saltire]

I'd like a proper weekly service over the summer on EDI-MCO.

Norwegian to introduce EDI-BOS.

One of the Chinese Airlines to start EDI-PEK or PVG! I think this is going to happen sooner or later anyway.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Is is exactly what I was thinking if there were plans to decouple the Manchester-Munich-Singapore and make the Manchester flight direct, to compete with CX into the Asian market.

I have previously put this on another forum but it may be of interest here. Credit Scotty Dog (SSC) for the numbers.

I have an update on the route performance of CX and SQ Ex MAN in 2015. Suffice to say SQ does not come out too well, but considering the factors at play against the current SQ operation I feel there is much to be optimistic about for the future.

I should be clear that these figures are credited to "Scottie Dog" (SSC) and my understanding is that they are based upon the official CAA figures for the relevant period. This means that they include direct routes from MAN to the destination, they do not include indirect routes (e.g. MAN-DXB-SIN). In the case of MAN, only one airline service HKG and SIN directly and so calculations can be undertaken reasonably easily. It does not include PAX from MAN-MUC carried by SQ but does include PAX ex MAN who transfer at SIN.

(Hope that is all clear?!!)

SQs performance

In 2015 SQ carried 108,950 PAX from MAN-SIN. This is up 5,998 from 2014 (102,962). Based on a daily frequency, this works out at roughly 150PAX per flight (i.e. 300 per day). Although It has not been used for the entire period under review, if it had been, a 4 class B77W (268 seats) you are looking at a load factor of around 56%. We do not know how many were premium PAX.

By way of historical comparison, in 2005 SQ carried 161,671. Over the past decade there has been a drop of 52,721.

This is disappointing. The overall market size ex MAN has not dropped (it did dip from the GFC) and long haul routes from MAN generally are booming. So what can be done to improve this? Fortunately, CX have provided the template for SQ to follow.


CX performance

In 2015 CX carried 124,172 PAX from MAN to HKG. This was the routes first full year of operations. It was 4x weekly on a 3 class B77W (no F) with 340 seats.

Based on this, they carried roughly 298 PAX per flight, representing a load factor of 88%. CX have been reportedly delighted with this, and want to make the route 8x weekly either with the B77W or A359. Crewing issues have frustrated that until 2017.

The non-stop element has been cited as a key factor in this success, but they have also code shared with a feeder airline into MAN and the departure time (12 noon ish) permits those connections. HKG is also an obscenely strong market for the UK in general.


Is there hope for SQ?

I think yes. The main issue facing SQ is that they are offering a stopping service which brings them into direct competition with a huge number of airlines, including the ME3, TK, BA, Swiss, KLM etc. This is irrespective of whether SIN is the O/D as for places like Australia or NZ (I.e. The major market) SQ essentially offer a two stop service whereas the ME3 offer a 1 stop).

Taking SIN on its own as a sector, the scheduled journey time for SQ MAN-SIN is 14:55. Without the stop it would likely be around 13:00. By comparison for MAN-SIN you are looking at the following connecting journey times:

Via AMS with KL: 15:00
Via LHR with BA: 15:05
Via FRA with SW: 15:15
Via ZRH with SW: 15:20
Via DOH with QR: 15:25
Via DXB with EK : 15:55

I have no figures to hand for EH or TK but they are not likely to be too far off this.

In summary, despite the serious competition faced by SQ and the relatively uncompetitive journey time and departure/connection options (in particular offering a two stop kangaroo service- but also to its
Own hub at SIN!!!) they do very well from MAN, and over half of the plane on the MUC-SIN sector is travelling ex MAN despite the issues above. As an example of the competition, EK report that SIN is in their top 10 connections Ex MAN.

My feeling is that it can standalone on a daily basis using an A350. Making this change is likely to result in a significant boost to PAX numbers, particularly if it uses a brand new type of aircraft.

Of more concern to SQ, may be the MUC route. Could it standalone? of course we have no idea about the general yield of MUC including premium passengers, but we will see what they do.

[BHX5DME]

Bring the SQ SIN-MUC-BHX if / when MAN starts direct !

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Bring the SQ SIN-MUC-BHX if / when MAN starts direct !

I don't think anyone other than SQ/SIN, MAN, or MUC will know how this route will be going forwards.

I doubt SQ would start via BHX as a direct reaction to any de-coupling of the MAN/MUC service, purely because it is sandwiched between MAN and LHR and the existing competition from Emirates, and (soon) Qatar. SQ suffered at MAN due to the emergence of the MEB3 and they have only recently started to recover. Still significantly down on 2005 though.

[chaps1954]

Can never recover until de linked as it is just about at it`s limit pax wise

Ian

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Can never recover until de linked as it is just about at it`s limit pax wise

Ian

Quite. With the MUC stop, they are no faster on a MAN-SIN sector than anyone of the MEB3, or via LHR, CDG, AMS with the added bonus that the other options offer a choice of departure times.

They also offer a slower journey on the Kangaroo route than the above and are under pressure from CX (soon to be Hainan and Air China).

My prediction is a 2016 announcement for a 2017 decoupling.

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking about the future of Eurowings and they are venturing into non-German airport bases, like Vienna, what other bases do you think could be successful? They could also operate long-haul routes like DXB, JFK from these potential bases.

Here are my suggestions:

Milan-Malpensa
London-Stansted
Zurich
Budapest

[Jetaway]

I would like to see the MAN - LGW service re-instated, i believe there is a demand for it. It could be done by BA or EI (With EI operating a triangle service between DUB - MAN - LGW - MAN and in reverse) a A319 would be perfect on the route. or maybe if BE wanted to operate considering they handle transfer PAX.
For BA to operate it, it probably would be a loss making route, but then again the feed would help other flights.

[ATNotts]

I would like to see the MAN - LGW service re-instated, i believe there is a demand for it. It could be done by BA or EI (With EI operating a triangle service between DUB - MAN - LGW - MAN and in reverse) a A319 would be perfect on the route. or maybe if BE wanted to operate considering they handle transfer PAX.
For BA to operate it, it probably would be a loss making route, but then again the feed would help other flights.

Yes, but what market would MAN/LGW serve. Virgin Trains offer a far quicker city centre to city centre service than any of the airlines, given the faffing around that is part and parcel of flying these days, hubbing at LGW is again quite limited these days, and with MAN having such great connections both east and west these days I can't see the point.

Perhaps the best chance for success on MAN/LGW would be package tours to Brighton, or away days to Man. United home games!

[EI-BUD]

Manchester - Heathrow sees something in the region of 75% of the users making a connection at LHR, the remaining 25% are either passengers making separate connections of their own or point to point, hence I'd suggest a Gatwick route would be a challenge for this reason and those stated in relation to the trains etc.

[WHBM]

Virgin Trains offer a far quicker city centre to city centre service than any of the airlines
However, only a minority of traffic is heading for city centres nowadays, and only a fraction of that is centre-to-centre. London/SE England is big enough to be separate markets in separate areas. If you live in say Maidstone and have a business meeting in Northwich, try doing that by train.

The Manchester trains eliminated their stop at Watford, and that cut out the whole west-of-London market from them.

London City is often quoted as an airport that just serves those in Canary Wharf, yet talking to fellow passengers they come from far and wide, well out into Essex or Kent, and all across London.

[wallp]

Luton to Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Prague (easyJet)
Luton to Tallinn (Wizz)
Luton to Isle of Man (easyJet)
Luton to Cork (Ryanair)
Luton to Shannon (Ryanair)
Luton to Florence (Vueling)
Luton to Cagliari (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Palermo (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Valencia (easyJet)

Gatwick to San Francisco (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Miami (Norwegian)
Gatwick to Fort Lauderdale (British Airways or Virgin Atlantic)
Gatwick to Nassau (British Airways)
Gatwick to Seychelles (British Airways)

So the Dubrovnik link has come to fruition thanks to easyJet. What next?

VLM seem to be getting into IOM - could there be room for the restoration of an IOM-LTN service at some point?

[AvGeek1]

Are there any gaps in Europe for any of the US3 to operate successfully? One that comes straight to mind is JFK/EWR - BUD, strong demand and unserved.

Can anyone suggest what routes are next for Norwegian's long-haul operations? Maybe Las Vegas since BA have announced they are axing the route.

[canberra97]

BA are only discontinuing LGW to Las Vegas but still operating LHR to Las Vegas plus VS serve it from LGW so is there any need for Norwegian to enter this market!

[AvGeek1]

I think DY are not really that bothered with another airline competing. They have entered markets like LGW-MCO which has both BA and VS operating. Norwegian also offer cheap air fares to North America and will also beat the likes of BA & VS on price, which is another advantage over the full-service airlines. I do think that with Norwegian's latest routes from Oslo to Las Vegas, they will be thinking of serving it from Gatwick in the future.

[AvGeek1]

It has been a great 2 years for Manchester, after securing many long-haul routes including Hong Kong, Beijing and most recently San Francisco & Boston. Also Shanghai has been on the cards for a while. What long-haul route is next for Manchester? Any suggestions?

[adfly]

South Africa seems to be a notable gap in the network, I expect Thomas Cook will give Cape Town a go at some point if Gatwick works for them.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

I think it is more about consolidation of existing routes (e.g. Multiple carriers, increased frequency) than new routes such that when the next downturn comes they are robust enough to withstand it.

If I had to put my neck on the block, South Africa and the Indian Sub-continent seem to be the most obvious missing long haul routes. Other possibilities include Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok but I doubt we will see these any time soon.

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking of how it would be quite fitting for Vueling to open up a base at Gatwick. They could compete with easyJet on many Spanish and Italian route, but also on important business routes to cities. They could also work in conjunction with British Airways' operation out of LGW and could could code-share with BA meaning flights and holidays could also be booked via BA's website. I think even if they did not decide to set up base operation, they could still offer a lot more flights from their current bases to Gatwick.

Here are just some of the routes I think Vueling could operate out of Gatwick:

LGW-CDG (flights launching very soon, could potentially add an early morning rotation for business traffic)
LGW-BRU (easyJet previous operation shows there is demand, easyJet offered poor timings to do with business traffic, Vueling could make this work with good timings for business traffic)
LGW-AGP (could complement British Airways' service by adding a mid-afternoon rotation out of Gatwick)
LGW-ALC (could complement British Airways' service)
LGW-LPA (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA,)
LGW-MAH (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA)
LGW-MXP (only served by EZY, 500,000+ passengers annually, code-shared with BA)
LGW-PMI (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA)
LGW-DME (easyJet showed from previously operating that there was demand, even when the flights were reduced to one daily due to the problems with Russia, flights were still full and fares were quite steep)
LGW-LCG (Vueling to end the LCG-LHR to make a daily slot available at Heathrow for other BA/IB/EI flights and could switch to LGW)
What other routes could there be and what are your thoughts on this?

:ok:

[Fairdealfrank]

Manchester - Heathrow sees something in the region of 75% of the users making a connection at LHR, the remaining 25% are either passengers making separate connections of their own or point to point, hence I'd suggest a Gatwick route would be a challenge for this reason and those stated in relation to the trains etc.
Point to point pax would be (at the LHR end) residents of the Thames Valley from Middlesex to Oxfordshire who don't want a long tedious journey up to London before taking the fast train to Manchester.

Probably also works in reverse with residents of Cheshire and parts of staffordshire, etc. (?).




However, only a minority of traffic is heading for city centres nowadays, and only a fraction of that is centre-to-centre. London/SE England is big enough to be separate markets in separate areas. If you live in say Maidstone and have a business meeting in Northwich, try doing that by train.
Good point!


The Manchester trains eliminated their stop at Watford, and that cut out the whole west-of-London market from them.
Yes, this is a big pain in the arse for many!

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Some speculation from MAN:

The VS aircraft at MAN next summer are apparently going to be more intensively utilised. In practice, it is speculated that this means a Detroit service will start.

Hainan are not yet done. They want to go daily at MAN - PEK from 1 January 2017 and also want to introduce a service to Xi'an.

China Southern are interested in a 3x weekly service to MAN from Guangzhou using the B788. Start rumoured to be summer 2017.

Air China have had issues with slots at Shanghai, but are due to start in October. Like Hainan, they too want to go daily sooner rather than later.

Thomas Cook have not yet given up on west coast USA. Their strategy is supposedly to go daily to the west coast (e.g. 3x San Francisco 4x Los Angeles) which together with their nearl daily service to Vegas gives a good coverage of a popular region.

Singapore Airlines current plan is to run the A350 to MAN nonstop 4x weekly, with the remaining 3x days covered with the existing Munich tag on. Eventually, they want to go daily non stop as in the early 2000s.

Cathay Pacific remain keen to increase to daily, as and when aircraft and crew let them. They essentially prioritised a slot grab at Gatwick ahead of 8x weekly MAN. Eventually, MAN stands to gain from the indecision of London airport expansion, but not in this occasion.

Emirates and Etihad have had very high loads for a long time, and despite recent increases in capacity. Something seems likely to give. Emirates also priorities a Gatwick slot over Manchester. Look out for that 4th daily flight soon enough.

American Airlines are keen to run between Dallas and MAN. No details.

That's about it. Plenty in there. Still keeping eyes open for JAL, ANA, Thai and the myriad of other long term targets. Even BA(!)

[Fairdealfrank]

MAN
Some speculation from MAN:

The VS aircraft at MAN next summer are apparently going to be more intensively utilised. In practice, it is speculated that this means a Detroit service will start.

Hainan are not yet done. They want to go daily at MAN - PEK from 1 January 2017 and also want to introduce a service to Xi'an.

China Southern are interested in a 3x weekly service to MAN from Guangzhou using the B788. Start rumoured to be summer 2017.

Air China have had issues with slots at Shanghai, but are due to start in October. Like Hainan, they too want to go daily sooner rather than later.

Thomas Cook have not yet given up on west coast USA. Their strategy is supposedly to go daily to the west coast (e.g. 3x San Francisco 4x Los Angeles) which together with their nearl daily service to Vegas gives a good coverage of a popular region.

Singapore Airlines current plan is to run the A350 to MAN nonstop 4x weekly, with the remaining 3x days covered with the existing Munich tag on. Eventually, they want to go daily non stop as in the early 2000s.

Cathay Pacific remain keen to increase to daily, as and when aircraft and crew let them. They essentially prioritised a slot grab at Gatwick ahead of 8x weekly MAN. Eventually, MAN stands to gain from the indecision of London airport expansion, but not in this occasion.

Emirates and Etihad have had very high loads for a long time, and despite recent increases in capacity. Something seems likely to give. Emirates also priorities a Gatwick slot over Manchester. Look out for that 4th daily flight soon enough.

American Airlines are keen to run between Dallas and MAN. No details.

That's about it. Plenty in there. Still keeping eyes open for JAL, ANA, Thai and the myriad of other long term targets. Even BA(!)
All good for Ringway, and not before time! Good to see several new China routes, not holding my breath for any India routes though. Think that SQ will go nonstop sooner rather than later, especially as CX plans to go daily soon. Keep up the good work

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

It is in part related to the restrictions in capacity in the South East. New or extended routes cannot get into LHR or LGW look at MAN and BHX.

Clearly some demand exists for LHR outside of the south east it is, in part, simply reallocating services in a more geographically appropriate way.

Agree with SQ. If CX go daily and the likes of Emirates and Etihad keep increasing frequency, not to mention all of the Chinese carriers, they need to change something. Offering a daily service non stop on a brand new aircraft seems like a very strong response.

[AvGeek1]

With British Airways' adding routes like Billund, Inverness & Krakow in recent months, what other short/medium haul routes from Heathrow are they still missing that would be viable to operate, keeping in mind the routes they operate out of Gatwick already?

[canberra97]

Avgeek

Some possibilities to add to your BA ex LHR list some already having been served.

Belgrade, Dresden, Granada, Jersey, Nantes, Perpignan, Strasbourg, Zaragoza.

[sunday8pm]

How does LGW-JER perform? Could the route move to LHR and do without the orange tailed competition?

[Fairdealfrank]

BA LHR-SCL: no longer speculation, starts next year.

[LBIA]

Leeds-Berlin no longer speculation after Yesterday's announcement from Jet2.

[Lon12]

I was thinking about some potential future European Emirates routes that could realistically be operated in the future. I came up with a few ideas;

Dubai - Valencia
Dubai - Malaga
Dubai - Edinburgh
Dubai - Paris (Orly)
Dubai - Helsinki

As anyone else got any suggestions and may I remind you to keep them realistic and viable suggestions, not just your wish lists!

Also are there any other routes outside of Europe that could be operated in the future?

In Spanish....

Emirates plans to fly to Valencia.

http://www.expansion.com/valencia/2016/06/17/57644648268e3ed8138b45ec.html

[kcockayne]

How does LGW-JER perform? Could the route move to LHR and do without the orange tailed competition?

I don't have figures but the Gatwick- Jersey route is always very well patronized (for both BAW & EZY). Heathrow was always a traditional route & would do well for BAW. There is certainly a big demand for it within the island. Although LGW is expanding its routes worldwide, islanders would very much appreciate the ability to connect with many more (& more frequent) long distance routes from LHR. There is also a very great demand for LHR within the business community - especially the finance industry.

[AerRyan]

Islanders? Gibraltar is connected to mainland Spain, its a peninsula!

[DaveReidUK]

Islanders? Gibraltar is connected to mainland Spain, its a peninsula!

The island being discussed is Jersey.

[cornishsimon]

I wonder if the current LGW BA schedule could be maintained and also add say twice daily LHR return to cater for connections?

Certainly BA now offer a wider range ex LGW for JER with the addition of JFK which with properly constructed tickets will allow onward US connections without the need to transfer to LHR by road.

Also LGW is soon to get CX which would also allow decent ex JER eastbound connections.


cs

[kcockayne]

You are correct to question the ability of BAW to operate from both LGW & LHR to JER. I feel that a doable frequency would be 3/4 services from each. LGW does offer more connections now - but nowhere near as many as from LHR .Certainly as far as BAW are concerned. Another suggestion would be for BAW to concentrate on LHR-JER with 5/6 flights per day, & leave the LGW-JER service to EZY. It would then be possible to connect with all the flights we could possibly want to connect with from both airports.
None of this is likely to happen until the 3rd. runway at LHR.

[Fairdealfrank]

You are correct to question the ability of BAW to operate from both LGW & LHR to JER. I feel that a doable frequency would be 3/4 services from each. LGW does offer more connections now - but nowhere near as many as from LHR .Certainly as far as BAW are concerned. Another suggestion would be for BAW to concentrate on LHR-JER with 5/6 flights per day, & leave the LGW-JER service to EZY. It would then be possible to connect with all the flights we could possibly want to connect with from both airports.
None of this is likely to happen until the 3rd. runway at LHR.

With a third rwy, U2 could be on the LHR-JER route as well.

[cornishsimon]

Can't see BA dumping LGW-JER. It's always rammed and suggestion is that it's one of the most profitable routes on the network.


cs

[kcockayne]

frank & simon
Points well made. I don't think BA would give up the Gatwick route, but if they decided to operate ex LHR they would, hopefully, operate more than 2 services per day. This might impact on the LGW loads - certainly, a lot of the Jersey originating pax would prefer LHR. This might persuade them to reduce the LGW operation - or even withdraw it. But, as frank says, a 3rd. R/W at LHR might lead to EZY operating from there also.
Exciting times - in 10 years time, or so !

[AvGeek1]

With Gatwick starting to stagnate for easyJet in terms of new routes, what routes are missing out of the network that could be viable to operate. Would operating to Cape Verde be too much of a long flight for EZY?


Also with the success of the Manchester route for Hainan Airlines, could we see Hainan operating LGW-PEK in the future?

[pwalhx]

Re. Hainan, I believe the Chines have a one carrier per route rule and CA have the Beijing/London route

[AvGeek1]

Re. Hainan, I believe the Chines have a one carrier per route rule and CA have the Beijing/London route

Yes but they would operating into different airports CA to LHR and HU to LGW, therefore it isn't the same route. Air China also operated a Beijing to Gatwick seasonal service a few years ago before it was terminated.

[pwalhx]

Surprisingly I am aware that LHR and LGW are different airports, hence I referred to the Beijing/London route, the rule being for City pairs.

Air China could operate to Gatwick as well as Heathrow as they are the designated carrier to London.

[AvGeek1]

With some of the summer schedules starting to be released and a handful of new routes being announced, what are the most likely routes that could be on the cards for S17 from UK airports?

[AvGeek1]

Anymore route speculation?

I have these in mind for easyJet:

Luton-Oslo
Luton-Kraków
Luton-Dalaman
Luton-Athens

Stansted-Paris (CDG/ORY)
Stansted-Zurich

Gatwick-Reus
Gatwick-Eindhoven
Gatwick-Warsaw

Manchester-Lanzarote
Manchester-Faro
Manchester-Rome (Fiumicino)


Feel free to share your thoughts and add any more routes you feel would be logical and viable for airlines to operate.

[EI-BUD]

Avgeek1,

Food for thought there! Easyjet wont touch the Scaninavian volume routes, has never been attractive. Eastern Europe is Wizz turf and Ryanair too competing in the general London market makes the suggested route to Krakow unlikely...

They now do Southend Paris, highly unlikely they'd put an STN on aswell. They've had a very mixed relationship with ZRH, axing their operation before, and then only resuming an LGW route upon foot of Aer Lingus's entry to the market. Einhoven was one of the few Aer Lingus routes that easyJet didn't jump into, do I'm sure they've ran the rule over it.

The MAN options would sound more likely.

Turkey is expected to grow next year, so perhaps!

EasyJet play it very safe and dont take big gambles with share holders money... so if Wizz, Ryanair, Norwegian are in town, or indeed Vueling, easyJet are unlikely to open routes there ...

[toledoashley]

Have thought about Luton - Oslo, and although they have just started Luton - Stockholm, I think that one is unlikely. Krakow is well served by Katowice, and easy dropped Athens years ago as it didnt perform. Dalaman is also getting a bump next year with an extra THomson service.

[MAJP]

Re. Hainan, I believe the Chines have a one carrier per route rule and CA have the Beijing/London route

China Eastern and Air China both operates CDG-PVG

[pwalhx]

In the twelve months since I wrote that comment undoubtedly things have changed.

[AvGeek1]

Avgeek1,

Food for thought there! Easyjet wont touch the Scaninavian volume routes, has never been attractive. Eastern Europe is Wizz turf and Ryanair too competing in the general London market makes the suggested route to Krakow unlikely...

They now do Southend Paris, highly unlikely they'd put an STN on aswell. They've had a very mixed relationship with ZRH, axing their operation before, and then only resuming an LGW route upon foot of Aer Lingus's entry to the market. Einhoven was one of the few Aer Lingus routes that easyJet didn't jump into, do I'm sure they've ran the rule over it.

The MAN options would sound more likely.

Turkey is expected to grow next year, so perhaps!

EasyJet play it very safe and dont take big gambles with share holders money... so if Wizz, Ryanair, Norwegian are in town, or indeed Vueling, easyJet are unlikely to open routes there ...

I think your wrong if I'm honest, I do agree that easyJet are safer than airlines like Ryanair, but recently we have seen them launching operations into markets we didn't think they would. They launched Luton-Stockholm, where Norwegian are serving from LGW, British Airways & SAS from LHR & Ryanair from Stansted. They have also launch several other routes into Stockholm like Milan and Bristol & Basel have been announced. They have also launch Are Ostersund from Gatwick & Copenhagen shortly. You cannot say that easyJet won't touch Scandanvia because they have! Are Ostersund may not be a 'volume route' but Stockholm sure is with the amount of competition.

Kraków isnt even served by Wizz, and is growing significantly recently, and Krakow is served from many U.K. airports successfully and Luton is the biggest one without a Kraków link.

I do think Stansted is such a strange set up for easyJet, minimal growth has been seen and with Jet2 now at Stansted it makes easyJet more worthless. As I have said before they need to move routes like Bilbao & Asturias to Gatwick/Luton and serve Amsterdam, Belfast & Edinburgh from these bases instead of from a Stansted base.

easyJet have been slowly but surely filling the gaps at Manchester with recent additions including Paris, Milan, Kraków, Porto etc.

[Barnstable]

I'd like to see a route from Copenhagen to somewhere east of the Pennines - LBA, EMA or DSA. Currently there's only Newcastle.

I fly CPN-MAN regularly and there are always high loads on the many Easyjet /SAS flights. I think there's room for one more connection from the North. Wizz DSA-MMX might work

[WHBM]

Stansted is more convenient than Luton for a significant amount of London. For example, there isn't a single traffic light, and rarely much delay, between Canary Wharf and the Stansted Terminal frontage. Even the road coaches from Victoria go out this way. In contrast the M1 to Luton can be quite unpredictable for journey time, and a tedious challenge to get to in the first place.

Way back when Go had a good selection of routes from Stansted they built up a significant following. I think quite a bit of it was London business traffic siphoned from Heathrow (a significant number of suits in the 7am departures), which set the BA rivalries going and eventually led to the demand for a sale. Easy never seemed to capitalise on this, and where I was making quite a bit of use of Go, and the early Easyjet operations, it has progressively fallen away.

[deedave]

Manston to Outer Space

[racedo]

Kraków isnt even served by Wizz, and is growing significantly recently, and Krakow is served from many U.K. airports successfully and Luton is the biggest one without a Kraków link.

Wizzair.............. predominantely Poles to KTW from LTN
Ryanair............... predominantely Poles to KTW from STN / 50-50 to Krakow
Easyjet.............. predominantely Brits to KRK from LGW

That is my experience of the routes..................... course flights never been on or friends not travelled on may be different. Love to know the real Stats.

[WHBM]

The real issue with Ryanair routes is they can seem to get dumped arbitrarily.

I can remember when Stansted to Prestwick was 10 flights a day, albeit with a 737-200. More than one I took was 100% full. Yet that route has gone completely. I also still miss the Stansted to Tampere, Finland route, I have to drive over to Heathrow, Finnair to Helsinki, then a 2 hour drive. That always seemed pretty full as well (mostly Finns, and in fact a notable number of Russians would drive from St Petersburg for it). That's gone. Tampere, Finland's second largest city, retains two Ryanair routes a few times a week to, of all places, Bremen in Germany and Budapest in Hungary. Just can't get that logic.

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

easyJet have been slowly but surely filling the gaps at Manchester with recent additions including Paris, Milan, Kraków, Porto etc.

But these weren't gaps, all those routes were already served ex MAN, as are the aforementioned routes to Lanzarote & Faro by every man and his dog, Rome Fiumicino up from 1 operator to 3 plus a service to Ciampino.

[AvGeek1]

But these weren't gaps, all those routes were already served ex MAN, as are the aforementioned routes to Lanzarote & Faro by every man and his dog, Rome Fiumicino up from 1 operator to 3 plus a service to Ciampino.

I did mean gaps in easyJet's Manchester network.

It is very difficult these days to launch a route in the European short haul market that is going to provide good return and loads that hasn't got another airline or more on it. easyJet have many routes out of Manchester that have many other airlines operating on them, such as Alicante which has 8 airlines operating in the summer season! Lanzarote & Faro are routes that would provide guaranteed volume especially in the summer and yield wouldn't be so bad either.

[cornishsimon]

Over the next couple of years I would expect some additional German routes as well as the possibility of CDG and or AMS to be served at NQY

I would also guess that cityflyer might look at it seasonally ex LCY on the S2000 or E70?

The current network at NQY is doing very well on loads

cs

[AvGeek1]

This is a partially compiled list of just some of the routes that have been speculated by people on this thread and have come to fruitation/ confirmed to be launching in W17/S18. This goes to show that route speculation isn't all nonsense, even though I agree some can be quite stupid!

Luton-Tenerife (easyJet)
Luton-Stockholm
Luton-Dubrovnik
Luton-Marseille
Luton-Isle of Man
Luton-Florence
Luton-Valencia
Gatwick-Fort Lauderdale
Gatwick-Las Vegas (Norwegian)
Glasgow-Brussels
Glasgow-Madrid
Manchester-San Francisco
Manchester-Los Angeles
Manchester-Singapore (Direct)
Manchester-Seville
Birmingham-Valencia
Birmingham-Porto
Birmingham-Stockholm
Birmingham-Vienna
Birmingham-Cluj Napoca
Birmingham-Florence
Leeds-Newquay
Leeds-Berlin
Newcastle-Madrid
Newcastle-Gdansk
Newcastle-Warsaw
Aberdeen-Alicante
Cardiff-Berlin

Any viable and realistic routes you think could operate currently, please share!

[AerRyan]

Dublin to Beijing.

Shouldn't be too far down the line.

[Jerry123]

With a Dash based at Cardiff now I think Rennes could be a good possibility for summer 18 with Flybe. With maybe Nice as an E jet route. Prague would be a great addition as well.

[Letsflycwl]

With a Dash based at Cardiff now I think Rennes could be a good possibility for summer 18 with Flybe. With maybe Nice as an E jet route. Prague would be a great addition as well.

Agree with you there, CWL needs some French regional routes....BOD, LRH or EGC to tie in with the BE routes from other U.K. Airports.

PRG would also be a welcomed return

[chinapattern]

Birmingham - Bergamo
Birmingham - Helsinki
Birmingham - Iasi
Birmingham - Marseille
Birmingham - Oslo
Birmingham - Riga
Birmingham - Seville
Birmingham - Zagreb

[Trev4521]

I have gone through the lists, but nowhere is East Midlands Airport mentioned, have we been forgotten does nobody want to fly from Ema, we do more than F1 & Cargo:sad::}:\