Plane down off Pt Lonsdale

[BULLDOG 248]

News in Sydney is quoting plane left YMMB just before noon and went down closer to Pt Lonsdale??

[CRCinAU]

News coverage:

'Number of people' dead after Barwon Heads plane crash (http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/several-people-dead-after-barwon-heads-plane-crash-20160129-gmgvmn.html)

Barwon Heads plane crash: Three people dead after light plane comes down off Victoria's Bellarine Peninsula - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/plane-crashes-at-barwon-heads-three-confirmed-dead/7124758)

Rumour has it is (was?) a PA28.... I don't think it'd be proper conduct by folks to disclose the rego....

[BULLDOG 248]

6pm news quoted a piper chieftain from YMMB???? Footage shows a piece of maroon and white spat being lifted out of the water?????? Guess in not a chieftain.

[PyroTek]

ATSB Investigation URL here. It's a PA-28. (http://atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2016/aair/ao-2016-006.aspx)

[1a sound asleep]

Plane https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/t31.0-8/10003870_1376322179314715_111530360_o.jpg

[B772]

PA28-235 approaching 50 years of age.

Seriously damaged in a landing accident approx. 27 years ago.

[Homesick-Angel]

With very little (but some) information on what went on today, Im happy to bet my house on the fact that the aircraft had nothing to do with this accident..

[nojwod]

A Flightradar24 screenshot I saw showed several orbits (maybe as many as 6 or 7) before the end of the flight. That was after a run parallel to the beach. Could be significant if control failure is suspected?

[Capt Fathom]

PA28-235 approaching 50 years of age.
Seriously damaged in a landing accident approx. 27 years ago

What's the relevance to this accident?

[Cloudee]

NOJWOD, some earlier media outlets showed a flightradar shot of the search aircraft orbiting the search area. The accident aircraft did not appear to have a flight plan that showed on flightaware so I don't know why it would show up on flightradar24. Are you sure it was the accident aircraft you saw?

[Squawk7700]

That track along the beach plus orbits was definitely Hems 5 searching for the crash site.

PS: Looks like they have their new Augusta Heli versus the old Bell. I knew they were coming but thought it was late in 2016.

[OZ-Biggles]

The Aircraft was PXD, a Cherokee 235. There were 3 very experienced Pilots on board. The weather was **** ! I'll leave you to you're own conclusions, they were good mates of mine at Royal Vic Aero Club. Don and Dan were both rated Cirrus SR22 pilots, and had 20+ years experience. The old 186 seconds probably . . . . KC.

[gerry111]

Didn't 'Xantrix' in the previous, (now locked) thread quote the forecast as overcast at 600' in rain?

VFR?


I'll always remain amazed as to why some people attempt to fly VFR G.A. in crappy WX conditions in Australia. For the next day after the bad event is often benign.


(Please note that I'm not commenting specifically on the PXD accident.)

[mcoates]

My instructor always told me (George Campbell)

Every crash in bad weather is usually found the next day in perfect sunshine

This seems to be true so many times that i have lost count!

[IFEZ]

More often than not, that is the case. We still haven't heard what the purpose or destination of yesterdays flight was, but its hard to imagine what could have been so important they felt compelled to head off in those conditions. Very sad. Condolences to those lost, and their families.


As an aside, has anyone read the sensationalist garbage relating to this on page 4 of todays Herald Sun..?

[CRCinAU]

As an aside, has anyone read the sensationalist garbage relating to this on page 4 of todays Herald Sun..?

People still read the Herald Sun? :ugh:

[Kulwin Park]

such a tradedgy :(
I see Oz Biggles said they were from RVAC. I've flown from there many a time. Are the names released yet? Were they instructors?

[Squawk7700]

They weren't instructors, just a few PPL mates in a private aircraft headed off for a long weekend on King Island, that ended tragically.

I first met Don and Dan some 15 years ago at my local airfield and the owner of the crash aircraft only more recently. They used to come in almost every week and hire the Cirrus SR22, often spending their entire weeks' pay packet, then later renting the SR20 on a regular basis. Rarely ever did you see them apart, so much so I used to call them Black and Decker because they stuck together like sh*t to a blanket. Great blokes and you would always see them at every fly-in and airshow not to mention almost every week for drinks at Royal Vic or BBQ's elsewhere for lunch. A sad loss to local aviation and whilst it's not much consolation as you often hear, they really did die whilst doing something that they truly loved. Aviation consumed their weekends for some 20? years. (I have not mentioned the owner or his partner as I did not know them)

[Sunfish]

Sad to read your post Squawk 7700. Was the pilot IFR and current?

[Squawk7700]

I have no idea Sunfish, however I feel as though if I said no, that you would reply with a "what did they expect" comment so I'm glad I don't know.

You have also made the assumption that I know who was flying the aircraft when in fact there were 3 pilots onboard.

[IFEZ]

Based on the route they were taking, I think it's fair to say they were VFR. MB around to Cape Otway then down to King Island. If you were IFR you'd take a more direct route. VFR flights to King Island need a lot better conditions than yesterday's. I wonder, is having 3 pilots on board an advantage or not..? Human factors gurus may be able to comment. Still very hard to understand why you'd attempt the flight given the conditions.

[FoolCoarsePitch]

If you would go direct IFR why wouldn't you go direct VFR?

[RatsoreA]

Sad state of affairs. Not overly familiar with YMMB, but at almost the same time, a PA30 was going YMMB to King Island, and asked for a SVFR clearance, but flightaware showed that he didn't make it very far past the coast, turning around and taking quite a circuitous route to get back to YMMB, landing at 1232 local. So there were people trying and turning back. My condolences.

[witwiw]

If you would go direct IFR why wouldn't you go direct VFR?

Because 50nm over water is the limit for singles. Cape Otway to Cape Wickham is 48nm.

No other option.

[wishiwasupthere]

Because 50nm over water is the limit for singles.

Really? That's new to me, have you got a reference?

[Squawk7700]

It is my understanding that this aircraft was one of a group heading to the island which would explain the other noted attempts and may possibly contribute to the human factors element.

[Egipps]

Because 50nm over water is the limit for singles. Cape Otway to Cape Wickham is 48nm.

No other option.

Umm I've never heard/read this. But fairly irrelevant given the context. They would have had life jackets etc. And many IFR aircraft are single engine.

[witwiw]

Ah, made a boob!! That limit is for charter ops which was my experience to/from YMKI eons ago, no limit for private ops - AIP ENR 1.1-100. Prudence, however, would nonetheless suggest the shortest route over water the better choice irrespective of the category.

As for wearing life jackets, seen many examples where, despite the regs requiring them, they stayed in place in their packets in the seat pockets. Surviving a ditching in Bass Strait is the first challenge, not dying from exposure is the next awaiting rescue. Many years ago there were survivors from a ditching in Bass Strait who perished awaiting rescue. Life jackets weren't much use to them.

[Duck Pilot]

Without drawing conclusions as to the cause of this accident, I feel that Human Factors is one issue that is not really considered by Private Pilots, simply due to the fact that it's not a requirement to touch on during training for a PPL.

CASA spend a bucket load of money sending advisors around the country trying to educate pilots on subjects such as VFR flight into IMC, and these kind of accidents still happen very regularly. Maybe it's time that CASA look at a different approach, as the seminars are obviously having very little effect.

Single engine aircraft can now fly directly over Bass Strait, the rules changed about 20 years ago. It was once mandatory to track via the shortest distances in-between the islands on both sides of Bass Strait, however I believe that's now only advisory. Having said this I stand to be corrected, as it's been a long time since I've flown a single over Bass Strait.

Yesterday was a bad day for aviation, hopefully we can all learn from this terrible event. Condolences to all effected.

[Squawk7700]

The most dangerous thing on an aircraft.... is a schedule.


Here is picture of Don flying in the club's Alpha. It's on the wall when you walk in and appeared in the Age today.

http://members.iinet.net.au/~bc75/don.JPG

[Homesick-Angel]

Every rumour I was told is true.

This is pretty much the biggest waste of life I've seen in 10 years in the game because of how easy this one was to avoid.

WTF they thought they were doing is beyond me. I know of 15 thousand hour pilots who were sitting on the ground because it was unsuitable for VFR and only a handful of IFR were getting out and doing what they needed.

Here's a few messages out for the PPL /private flying community out there.

1. You are a PPL. Even if you've been flying for 20 years it doesn't mean **** unless you are current and fly weekly at least in a range of conditions.

2. You are not beyond the laws and consequences of flaunting them or pushing them.

3. Statistics show you are the most unsafe people in the sky. That should be a trigger for you to take great care.

4. Ask , ask and then ask again. Even the most junior instructor who has worked for a year or two has more currency and understanding of the local area and wx than you. You don't know ****. See point 3 for proof. Go look at the stats. See how many instructors die vs you guys. They work under safety frameworks you have no idea of.

5. If you wanna play with the big boys in the soup then take it seriously and get an IFR rating, keep it current and tread with absolute care. If it runs out, YOU ARE NOT suitable for IMC.

6. People will take more risks in groups than alone. I wonder if any single pilot on board would have gone alone, and gone if others hadn't tried. The worst of it had appeared to pass , but a simple call would have shown them this was a false dawn ... See next point.

7. RING THE MET PEOPLE . There is a number at the end of the ARFOR. They are Yoda like and have far more current modelling than all but the latest TAFS.

8. If you see people doing dumb sh1t report them or if they are close pull them aside quietly and have a word. They may not like it but stiff.

Take care.

[Squawk7700]

Are you an instructor or just a CPL Homesick-Angel? 10 years hey...? I guess that makes you qualified to offer such sound advice. I know people that have been flying for 40+ years and they still say that they are learning every time they take to the sky. Good on you for working it all out in only 10 years.

So you weren't there on the day and you offer this advice based on rumours of people that were on the ground?

Was it VFR at YMMB, Special VFR or IFR only? You are suggesting that it was unsuitable for VFR... however if so, why / how did they get out of Moorabbin in the first place? SVFR is available but only if it's still VFR conditions. Should the tower have stopped them? How does a VFR aircraft take off from a controlled aerodrome in conditions that are unsuitable for VFR (which is what you are saying)?

I read your post like you were there, or you saw the aircraft crash, you know the experience and currency of the pilots, you are a trained aircraft crash investigator, you are an accomplished instructor and IFR pilot and you know exactly what happened... which one is it?


Even the most junior instructor who has worked for a year or two has more currency and understanding of the local area and wx than you. You don't know ****.

You mean the guys that rarely leave the training area and if they do it's only in CAVOK on a nav with student? No wonder they are "safer."

Of course, IFR rated pilots never crash do they???



Every rumour I was told is true.

This is pretty much the biggest waste of life I've seen in 10 years in the game because of how easy this one was to avoid.

WTF they thought they were doing is beyond me. I know of 15 thousand hour pilots who were sitting on the ground because it was unsuitable for VFR and only a handful of IFR were getting out and doing what they needed.

Here's a few messages out for the PPL /private flying community out there.

1. You are a PPL. Even if you've been flying for 20 years it doesn't mean **** unless you are current and fly weekly at least in a range of conditions.

2. You are not beyond the laws and consequences of flaunting them or pushing them.

3. Statistics show you are the most unsafe people in the sky. That should be a trigger for you to take great care.

4. Ask , ask and then ask again. Even the most junior instructor who has worked for a year or two has more currency and understanding of the local area and wx than you. You don't know ****. See point 3 for proof. Go look at the stats. See how many instructors die vs you guys. They work under safety frameworks you have no idea of.

5. If you wanna play with the big boys in the soup then take it seriously and get an IFR rating, keep it current and tread with absolute care. If it runs out, YOU ARE NOT suitable for IMC.

6. People will take more risks in groups than alone. I wonder if any single pilot on board would have gone alone, and gone if others hadn't tried. The worst of it had appeared to pass , but a simple call would have shown them this was a false dawn ... See next point.

7. RING THE MET PEOPLE . There is a number at the end of the ARFOR. They are Yoda like and have far more current modelling than all but the latest TAFS.

8. If you see people doing dumb sh1t report them or if they are close pull them aside quietly and have a word. They may not like it but stiff.

Take care.

[zanthrus]

HA, Good advice that applies to all not just PPL's. Sad day but I hope some learn from it.
Squawk put your ego away. It is not appreciated.

[Homesick-Angel]

I know you knew the occupants , and for your loss I'm sorry.

In your gut did they make a good call to fly - legal or not? Would you have gone to King VFR that day? Have you heard of other accidents similar? Maybe I'm the one happy to take some criticism to say what I know as common sense.

I did labor over whether to post something of this nature now or later, but if one person makes a good decision in the future (which history tells us they won't) then I will have achieved my own personal aim on this topic.

My experience is relatively low compared to many others here (mix of charter up north and instruction down South. ) I don't think it's relevant in this situation.

I've seen enough..

[Squawk7700]

Squawk put your ego away. It is not appreciated.

ego
/ˈiːɡəʊ,ˈɛ-/
noun
noun: ego; plural noun: egos
a person's sense of self-esteem or self-importance.
"he needed a boost to his ego"

I thought Homesick_Angel was the one showing their EGO by preaching their own rules of the sky based on some airfield rumours? I merely suggested that 10 years of experience is quite junior in this context and some evidence would be beneficial for such bold statements.

You can say whatever you want HA, I don't mind and you won't offend, if someone died doing something silly, then it is what it is, I can't change that, however you have some pretty bold statements in your post there and a seasoned poster like say LeadSled would back them up with references containing evidence and statistics. Otherwise, without that, it just looks like a rant from some second-hand rumours.

[The name is Porter]

Sqwark, I departed Moorabbin IFR about 1240pm that day, the zone was IFR (one in - one out). When I was taxiing I heard a VFR taxy & the tower advising SVFR would be required, I didn't hear that full conversation as I was busy doing stuff. I was in IMC pretty much all the way so can't tell you what the base was over the strait.

I got absolutely drenched on the tarmac at King, low cloud, lots of rain & worsening vis. I heard one aircraft land, I didn't hear anything IFR on the way down so wondered how in blazes he got in? Like I said, dunno what the base was but I was surprised. There were two aircraft already there, one chap came over and asked if I'd heard this fellow on the radio. In retrospect I can't imagine how these 2 plane loads of people felt when they eventually heard.

I don't know what made whoever made this (extremely poor) decision to depart Moorabbin. The forecasts weren't good, they were crap in most parts of tassie. I'd suggest to you that Homesick is extremely angry that, yet again, innocent people who trust people at the controls implicitly to make good decisions paid the ultimate price.

[Critical Reynolds No]

From my vantage point on the day, YMMB would of been ok to depart from. There wasn't much rain and the cloud was approx 2000'. I could see a line of low black cloud stretching along the bottom of the bay. This would've been apparent once airborne. It didn't look nice. Friends down that way said the weather was "****" all day. Big difference in weather 20nm apart.

[Squawk7700]

Certainly an interesting contrast in weather conditions from two pilots onsite on the day.

Like I said if they were allowing SVFR....

[Capt Fathom]

Like I said if they were allowing SVFR....

Not relevant! The Pilot in Command makes the decision to go / not go!

[Centaurus]

Here is picture of Don flying in the club's Alpha

Interesting aircraft the Alpha. Flies straight and level in formation with full flap down..:rolleyes:

[fujii]

Flouting, not flaunting.

[ACMS]

Well I can say that over on the east side of the bay at lunchtime it wasn't too bad on Beach road BUT looking WSW toward the Bellarine Penninsula and toward PPH it was very ominous, dark low cloud base ( embedded Cu/Cb perhaps? ) with mod to heavy showers beneath all along the western horizon over the bay.

I actually commented to my wife while driving into town that west looked crap and I hope that it didn't head toward Melbourne and effect the T20 Intl cricket on at the G later that evening.

So sad.

[Compylot]

Homesick-angel posts some wise words..


Sad but true

[Homesick-Angel]

Go here

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5474110/ar2014084_final.pdf#page92

Page 87 figure 23.

If it doesn't work look for a doc titled 'aviation occurrence statistics'.

7700. My post was in part a rant, but here are the statistics I wrote of.

[Dora-9]

Well done Homesick Angel - someone had to say those things...

[rjtjrt]

There seems to be a suggestion that a number of aircraft went MB to King Island, as a loose group travel.
I wonder if any of them returned to MB instead of continuing to King Island?

[Sunfish]

Squawk7700, I'm sorry if I offended you by asking if the aircraft and pilot was IFR capable on the day or not.

I refer to "The name is Porter's" post:

Sqwark, I departed Moorabbin IFR about 1240pm that day, the zone was IFR (one in - one out). When I was taxiing I heard a VFR taxy & the tower advising SVFR would be required, I didn't hear that full conversation as I was busy doing stuff. I was in IMC pretty much all the way so can't tell you what the base was over the strait.

I got absolutely drenched on the tarmac at King, low cloud, lots of rain & worsening vis. I heard one aircraft land, I didn't hear anything IFR on the way down so wondered how in blazes he got in? Like I said, dunno what the base was but I was surprised. There were two aircraft already there, one chap came over and asked if I'd heard this fellow on the radio. In retrospect I can't imagine how these 2 plane loads of people felt when they eventually heard.

I don't know what made whoever made this (extremely poor) decision to depart Moorabbin. The forecasts weren't good, they were crap in most parts of tassie. I'd suggest to you that Homesick is extremely angry that, yet again, innocent people who trust people at the controls implicitly to make good decisions paid the ultimate price.

I will ask another question: Two made it in to King Island (presumably VFR ex YMMB). What do you think of any VFR pilot who ventured out that day? Was the King Island Festival fly away weekend that important?

If that is the case, doesn't that raise the possibility that "groupthink" is involved?

I wouldn't be flying anywhere VFR around most of Victoria today either

[allthecoolnamesarego]

Squawky,

Nothing wrong with HA's advice. If ten years experience doesn't give you some insights and the experience to offer advice, not sure what does. I was instructing with 10 years experince, and felt I was able to offer advice like that of HA.

It appears that you either knew these pilots, or knew of them. I offer my condolences, however, that doesn't mean that the advice HA gives, shouldn't be offered. 4 people are dead and MANY more will suffer pain as a result of their death, family and loved ones will live with their loss forever. Any advice to help reduce the chance of someone else dying should be offered, take it or leave it.

I understand that you might think HA is stating that his/her words of advice are each causal factors in this crash. The investigation will bare that out. However, each and every crash shoild give us pause to think about possible factors, and provide an opportunity to use those as a learning point.

Safe flying.

[Squawk7700]

Atcnag, it's not so much what was written about them, it was the fact that HA wasn't there, didn't see the weather, didn't speak to any of the pilots, heard a second hand story from someone who didn't even go flying that day and then decided to become judge, jury and executioner with one foul post. I have no issue with anyone saying that it was caused by poor decision making, but second or third hand rumors followed by an unsubstantiated dig at dangerous PPL pilots as if a CPL, instructor or IFR pilot have never crashed!! I would have said the same thing in reply regardless of having known the pilots on board.

Sunfish, I won't bother to answer any of your questions as you've never answered mine nor bothered to ever respond to private messages of assistance to your enquiries regarding the built of your VFR Zenith aircraft through the SAAA from myself and other members of the Pprune and SAAA community. Your decision not to fly today anywhere in Victoria is yours alone as plenty of others are out there enjoying themselves in the air today.

[P51D]

This type accident involving weather (apparently) keeps happening with tragic outcomes. I live on the other side of the country but rather than speculate on what happened I'll reserve my view until the investigation is complete. What offends me is the language of Homesick Angel and I can fully understand Squawks reaction to this highly experienced individual. I'm a PPL, learnt to fly in PNG in 1973, am still flying, own an aircraft and have the attitude that I'm always still learning. HA's talk down attitude to PPL's had me shaking my head - wow, 10 years experience!!! Boy oh boy, let's all seek you out as the guru of all things aviation. Multiple thousands of hours pilots, who were the big boys, have also lost their lives in ga aircraft. None of us are immune, and HA that's coming from a 42 year active private pilot who doesn't fly every week but considers himself safe when he does so. It's very sad that these threads drift into ego's on display, and in HA's case "there but for the grace of God". I feel very sorry for the family's and friends of those on board.

[mcgrath50]

dangerous PPL pilots as if a CPL, instructor or IFR pilot have never crashed!

As the statistics show, as a group PPL pilots ARE more dangerous. I would happily say I'm sure I could have learnt things from these fine gentleman. What I think PPLs need to remember is that often (but not always) they fly for a few hours once a week (at most) and the CPL who is taking off before them does this 5 days a week. Does that mean a PPL is a worse pilot than a CPL? No. Does that mean a CPL knows more than a PPL? Often no. Does that mean the CPL won't crash? No. Does that mean the CPL has a more currency and all that entails? Almost certainly. :ok:

I've walked past that aircraft at MB many times. If the gents are half as lovely as the aircraft was it is a massive loss to aviation. RIP.

[BEACH KING]

Oh dear... PPrune at it's best.

[junior.VH-LFA]

I thought it was a good post HA.

I'm a complete junior at this whole flying thing compared to a lot of you but I think that advice could go to anyone, not just PPL's. Fly to your limitations, your experience and your currency. Be self critical when making that decision and ask if someone else was asking you if they should go, what would you say? Have a plan for when it all does turn to **** so you can get on the ground again. There's always tomorrow to go and have another crack at it.

My condolences to all involved.

[megan]

How does a VFR aircraft take off from a controlled aerodrome in conditions that are unsuitable for VFR (which is what you are saying)?Have had the experience of being given a special VFR clearance from a capital city airport in the past. Took off, said oh @*&%, hasty low, low level turn to downwind and prompt landing.

It's unfortunate that every pilot gains a licence with rare exposure to lousy weather, and the first time he is confronted with it is as pilot in command. It would be an extremely rare pilot who has not pushed his/her luck, and got back on the ground blessing his/her maker. Unfortunately, for some, the dice rolls the wrong number.

Frank Tallman, famous movie stunt pilot, lost his life because of weather. On Saturday 15 April 1978, Tallman was making a routine ferry flight in a twin-engine Piper Aztec from Santa Monica Airport, California, to Phoenix, Arizona under visual flight rules when he continued the flight into deteriorating weather, a lowering ceiling and rain. He struck the side of Santiago Peak in the Santa Ana Mountains near Trabuco Canyon at cruise altitude.

All of you are human, I hope, and you too can be felled by human frailty, irrespective of time logged.

You might peruse this old discussion.

http://www.pprune.org/pacific-general-aviation-questions/496863-plane-missing-en-route-ycab.html

There but for the grace of God.

[The name is Porter]

How does a VFR aircraft take off from a controlled aerodrome in conditions that are unsuitable for VFR (which is what you are saying)?

Because this is what you, the industry wanted. When Ops Control closed aerodromes there were complaints from pilots saying they were in the best position to know, and frankly, it should be pilots making those decisions. You don't need to get airborne to make the decision. (not criticising you Megan, cos I've done that myself!). Pilots should not be expecting ATC's to make this decision for you.

There's obviously a very wide experience gradient amongst Private Pilots, it may have been within someone's skill set to depart special VFR on that day.

Do any of you have a quiet word in another pilots ear when they are just about to hop in a plane VFR on a day like Friday?

[Captain Dart]

It doesn't just happen to private pilots. In 1966, astronauts Elliot See and Charlie Bassett, prime crew of Gemini 9, lost their lives circling in deteriorating visibility off an instrument approach.

Their T-38 jet hit the very building that they had come to visit.

[Flying Binghi]

Amazing, here's me thinking any pilot would want all available facts before judging one of their fellow pilots on circumstantial evidence..:hmm:

What have i learnt from this thread..... bugger all, except apparently three pilots are now to blame because three pilots in an aircraft make it more dangerous. Next time I'm paxing on the Qantas cattle truck and in business sitting next to Qantas Capt. XYZ, I think I'll start to panic..:ooh:


Here's some possibilities an accident investigator might find...

- Due to the aircraft flying in cold rain all vents were closed and heater on. Due to cracked exorst aircraft occupants gassed. (All my aircraft have the exorst heaters disconected after this happened to me.)

- Pilot in command had health issues and right hand seat occupied by the non-pilot and the aircraft being at low level did not give sufficiant time to...

- Accidental Drone strike. As we all know, its due, and many of the beachs around our citys are drone central now...

- Bird strike.

- In flight cockpit smoke. (I've had two occurances now- great for vis)

- New electronic avionics recently fitted.
Possibility #1: Pilot competent at the panel though rain water seeping in shorted out avionics...... ('steam gauges' can handle a bit of water. And I know this because...)
#2: Pilot competent at the old six pack suddenly finds the whole new set-up and lay-out of the new wiz bang panel disorientating and looks for answers in the wrong part of panel... (I survived my experience)

-And I'm sure there's more possibilities...

Before I pass judgment on a fellow aviator, or three, I want to see the accident investigators report. Anything else is just muppets flapping the wool..:hmm:






.

[megan]

not criticising you Megan, cos I've done that myself!I had a fair bit of time under the belt at the time Porter, but it taught me how difficult it is to judge the weather while standing on the ramp on some occasions. At the time I figured the man in his lofty tower would have a better appreciation than I for what was to be a local ten minute flight. On the other hand, because we were long time operators at the airport perhaps he extended a little licence to our local knowledge. The place was notorious for bad weather it must be said. TAFs (and area forecasts) are nothing but horoscopes with numbers as well.

[QDMQDMQDM]

Well, this is quite the angry, abusive, patronising diatribe from Homesick Angel, but unfortunately it completely misses the point. If we are looking at another classic 'VFR into IMC' accident, as I admit it does look like, then the point which is being missed is to ask why, once again, sensible people have made apparently inexplicable decisions.

These were experienced private pilots who had been flying various aircraft, including quite complex ones, for many years and had successfully managed to avoid killing themselves thus far, a success rate which it seems unreasonable to attribute purely to chance. If you'd asked these pilots the day before the accident "Do you think you're the kind of pilot who might die in a VFR into IMC accident?" they would probably have laughed you out of the room and told you not to be so stupid. An attempt in due course to try and dissect why these pilots apparently made a poor decision is more likely to help prevent this in future than a diffuse rant at private pilots that "You don't know ****".

As a private pilot with a thousand hours of stick and rudder time in my Super Cub, comprising over 5,000 landings into the shortest and most restricted of locations and with not a scratch put on the machine in that time, I could justifiably rant that airline pilots who stall their aircraft into the ocean because they are incapable of hand flying it or who allow it to get 30 knots (30 frigging knots!) too slow on the approach also "don't know ****". I might even be justified, but it doesn't help anyone.

More insight, less ego, less anger, less abuse probably make for a better approach to flight safety. Wouldn't you agree, Homesick Angel?


Every rumour I was told is true.

This is pretty much the biggest waste of life I've seen in 10 years in the game because of how easy this one was to avoid.

WTF they thought they were doing is beyond me. I know of 15 thousand hour pilots who were sitting on the ground because it was unsuitable for VFR and only a handful of IFR were getting out and doing what they needed.

Here's a few messages out for the PPL /private flying community out there.

1. You are a PPL. Even if you've been flying for 20 years it doesn't mean **** unless you are current and fly weekly at least in a range of conditions.

2. You are not beyond the laws and consequences of flaunting them or pushing them.

3. Statistics show you are the most unsafe people in the sky. That should be a trigger for you to take great care.

4. Ask , ask and then ask again. Even the most junior instructor who has worked for a year or two has more currency and understanding of the local area and wx than you. You don't know ****. See point 3 for proof. Go look at the stats. See how many instructors die vs you guys. They work under safety frameworks you have no idea of.

5. If you wanna play with the big boys in the soup then take it seriously and get an IFR rating, keep it current and tread with absolute care. If it runs out, YOU ARE NOT suitable for IMC.

6. People will take more risks in groups than alone. I wonder if any single pilot on board would have gone alone, and gone if others hadn't tried. The worst of it had appeared to pass , but a simple call would have shown them this was a false dawn ... See next point.

7. RING THE MET PEOPLE . There is a number at the end of the ARFOR. They are Yoda like and have far more current modelling than all but the latest TAFS.

8. If you see people doing dumb sh1t report them or if they are close pull them aside quietly and have a word. They may not like it but stiff.

Take care.

[fujii]

I suppose flying with an exorst fitted could be dangerous. Mine has an approved exhaust.

[Sunfish]

A question of fact: Is there a possibility that the pilot flying was IFR and current? Was the aircraft fitted for IFR flight?

[allthecoolnamesarego]

FB.

We will all look forward to reading the outcome of the investigation. The fact that we don't know the causes of THIS accident, shouldn't preclude us from discussing issues associated with the weather at the time. It may have nothing to do with the accident, but talking about weather, decision making etc, can do nothing but good- if it makes people THINK.
Again, they may be any number of causes, but aviation is about learning for the rest of your life. If one refuses to consider others experience, ideas, suggestions (dismiss them if you will, but think first), then it is highly likely you have given up learning and are an accident waiting to happen.

QDMetc.
Rant all you like about airline Pilots stalling their aircraft, there is nothing wrong with that and in fact it might wake a few pilots up and save lives.

Let's take emotion out of this. The facts will come to light. Until then, we can discuss senarios and try to improve each other's knowledge.

The weather might not have had anything to do with this prang, but a few hypotheticals around operating in difficult conditions can and a few tools to our toolbox of experience.

[IFEZ]

Sunfish, I don't know the answer to your question but it would appear unlikely given their route and reported low altitude.

Porter, out of interest what route and altitude did you take down to King that day..?

[Egipps]

Pilots weren't IFR.

[Old Fella]

I have read all the posts on this sad event. Some, frankly, are blatant attempts to say "I told you so". The question of whether or not any of the pilot's aboard held an Instrument Rating has been posed. I am now retired and, sadly, grounded due medical reasons. During my working life as a Flight Engineer in both the RAAF and in civil aviation I have crewed with relatively inexperienced pilots and extremely experienced ones. What was invariably evident was that most of those pilots, regardless of experience, were "rusty" when returning from lengthy leave periods. This was particularly evident in refresher flights in the simulator before resuming line flying. My point is that it is one thing to hold an Instrument Rating, it is entirely another to remain current. If a 20000+ hour pilot can need a few instrument approaches in a simulator to fine tune his/her skills what chance will a PPL have to retain his/her IR skills and currency?

As some have written, discussion is good. Making assumptions is not. Hopefully, we will all learn from this tragic event.

PS: CENTAURUS, I too wondered about the flap setting shown in the picture. Maybe a formation approach to land somewhere near the coast??

[patagonianworelaud]

Interesting aircraft the Alpha. Flies straight and level in formation with full flap down..

What's your point, Centaurus?

[The name is Porter]

IFEZ, dct (ALPAL), A080 initially, went to A060 due ice.

[Ultralights]

Interesting aircraft the Alpha. Flies straight and level in formation with full flap down..
What's your point, Centaurus?

yes, whats the point? i did my formation work with a Alpha 160, cruise 120Kts, and a Savannah VG, cruise 87 Kts, to keep formation with a Savannah required full flap.
and what relevance does the full flap formation have to do with the tragic events that unfolded? trying to imply something?

[Homesick-Angel]

I deleted my latest post cos like Kenny Rogers.

You gotta know when to hold em, fold em and when to walk away..

7700 might need a break too.

[Best Rate]

The year was 1991 and I was doing my RPPL at MB when we lost one of our privately owned aircraft in similar conditions and not all that far away from the Pathfinder's final descent...

It was Point Addis in fact, near Anglesea, and eerily enough, Tony Jacobs and family had departed King Island (against RPT AUS-AIR/KIA pilots' advice) and hit the horrendous rain squall near the coast at low level.

They were in their Beech Musketeer VH-UAS and I'll never forget the late great Robbie Spry walking over to the school to tell the CFI that he and JM were getting VH-FDF the SAR PA31 geared up for a search down there for one of our aircraft.

Sadly, as HA says, despite the forums, briefings, pub talk etc, folks will still periodically employ 'press-on-itis' instead of cashing out with the timely 180 or at least ensure an out at all times, especially when possibly at low-level and 'scud-running'.

I later attended the funeral for Tony and his family at Springvale (there opposite Sandown) and my CFI at the time asked that I lock the whole unpleasant memory away for future reminders of the need for careful weather analysis/enroute decision-making. It was a teary affair as Tony had strongly encouraged me to chase my aviation dreams as a keen, bushy-tailed youngster at the flying school. And they are still in my thoughts to this day...

RIP to the latest poor victims. Saw D&D at RVAC on the Dawn Patrol morning recently... Always friendly chaps.

Safe travels all,

BR

[A37575]

yes, whats the point? i did my formation work with a Alpha 160, cruise 120Kts, and a Savannah VG, cruise 87 Kts, to keep formation with a Savannah required full flap.
and what relevance does the full flap formation have to do with the tragic events that unfolded? trying to imply something?

Come off the grass. To the average experienced formation pilot there certainly was something out of the ordinary to be flying in very close formation with landing flap down in an LSA.. That's a helluva lot of drag. The OP simply made a casual observation. There was no inference that the pilot of the Alpha concerned was being a smart-arse for the photographer.

Normally in formation flying one uses the power to adjust the required speed; not putting the flaps up and down. Have you watched the RAAF Roulettes aerobatic team doing their formation aerobatics? Have yet to see them drop landing flaps to keep in formation.

[IFEZ]

Thanks Porter for the reply.

[kingRB]

Have you watched the RAAF Roulettes aerobatic team doing their formation aerobatics? Have yet to see them drop landing flaps to keep in formation.

Of course you don't need flap when formating identical aircraft with identical performance.

Ever try formating on something like a Tiger Moth that cruises at 50 knots with something a lot new and faster? I'm assuming not.

[Sbaker]

I do not know the exact circumstances, for all I know there could have been a structural failure - I will not be jumping to conclusions - Just wait for the investigation to be completed by ATSB.

However with that being said - In the mines we had this poem that may, or may not have been relevant to this situation.. if you see someone doing something that isn't right, pull them aside.. hurting someones ego or pride is better than letting them continue in to a dangerous situation... maybe it could be just a few minutes of a lapse in judgement... that is all it takes.



"I Chose to Look The Other Way"



I could have saved a life that day,

But I chose to look the other way.

It wasn’t that I didn’t care,

I had the time, and I was there.

But I didn’t want to seem a fool,

Or argue over a safety rule.

I knew he’d done the job before,

If I spoke up, he might get sore.

The chances didn’t seem that bad,

I’d done the same, He knew I had.

So I shook my head and walked on by,

He knew the risks as well as I.

He took the chance, I closed an eye,

And with that act, I let him die.

I could have saved a life that day,

But I chose to look the other way.

Now every time I see his wife,

I’ll know, I should have saved his life.

That guilt is something I must bear,

But it isn’t something you need share.

If you see a risk that others take,

That puts their health or life at stake.

The question asked, or thing you say,

Could help them live another day.

If you see a risk and walk away,

Then hope you never have to say,

I could have saved a life that day,

But I chose, to look the other way.

[Bug smasha]

Wow - certainly some phenomenal egos at work on this thread! ATSB hasn't completed its findings, wreckage plus one body still missing and these poor souls have copped quite a beating.

Was the weather a contributing factor? - most likely, sure would not have helped.
Was it the primary cause of this accident? - we just don't know.

Let's all hope the cause of this accident is found. We may all be able to learn something from whatever the contributing factors were that caused this crash. My thoughts and condolences go out to the families and friends of those lost in this accident.

[Bug smasha]

@ A37575 - Not trying to be a smart arse, but the Alpha 160 isn't in the LSA category as it's fully aerobatic.

Agreed it is a little different to do formation in aeroplanes of vastly different performance. I have been in a Cherokee taking pic's of a CAC Mustang, which was a bit different to say the least! The Cherokee was throttle to the firewall and the Mustang had the gear unsafe warning horn blarring - apparently activates at low speed if gear not down. It requires a good briefing and understanding by pilots concerned.

Sure, Roulettes don't use flaps, but they most definitely use the speed brake on the PC-9's. Speed isn't just regulated by the throttle in these machines.

[Flying Ted]

According to press reports.....

"Most of the plane's debris has already washed ashore since the crash, including a document which may hold clues to why the plane went down."

Read more: More wreckage found after fatal Barwon Heads plane crash (http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/more-wreckage-found-after-fatal-barwon-heads-plane-crash-20160203-gmkt37.html#ixzz3z5RMMtOa)

If this document is the maintenance release, what clues would the accident investigators expect to see? Any ideas?

[Egipps]

Suggest you don't look to the media for the answers. Firstly they couldn't decide whether 4 seater or 6 seater. Then the release the names with statements like 'names haven't been released yet, but we understand the people on board to be'. And now the article in The Age:

Why did VH-PXD hit the water? Mystery surrounds plane crash which killed four (http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/why-did-vhpxd-hit-the-water-mystery-surrounds-plane-crash-which-killed-four-20160205-gmmr9q.html)

[FoolCoarsePitch]

Onya Neil. Appreciate it.

[Squawk7700]

http://m.theage.com.au/victoria/why-did-vhpxd-hit-the-water-mystery-surrounds-plane-crash-which-killed-four-20160205-gmmr9q.html

[Rotor Work]

RIP,
My sympathy to all affected
Regards RW

Barwon Heads plane crash wreckage found but fourth victim still missing - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-07/barwon-heads-plane-crash-wreckage-found-body-missing/7146520)

Barwon Heads plane crash wreckage found but fourth victim still missing
Posted about an hour ago

A Victoria Police boat docked at Point Lonsdale following a plane crash at Barwon Heads.
PHOTO: Crews have been searching for the wreckage for nearly two weeks.
Search crews have managed to find the fuselage of a plane that crashed in waters off the coast on Victoria's Bellarine Peninsula last month, but have yet to locate the fourth victim's body, police have said.

Divers and water police were able to bring the wreckage to the surface, along with the plane's engine block and propeller, on Saturday afternoon.

It was found about four kilometres offshore, between Point Lonsdale and Barwon Heads.

The plane, which took off from Moorabbin Airport, crashed on January 29, killing all four onboard.

The plane, carrying a 68-year-old Noble Park man, a 63-year-old woman and 65-year-old man from Black Rock, and a 55-year-old man from Mordialloc, had been flying to King Island.

Three of the victims' bodies have been recovered.

The wreckage was located by a remote operated vehicle which indicated the location of the plane and guided divers to the site, police said.

It was taken by barge to Williamstown, in Melbourne's west, for further inspection.

[framer]

"If he's instrument rated, you feed into the GPS, no different than GPS navigation in your car," he said.
Boy I hope he's been mis quoted ....what a load of rubbish. What has GPS got to do with loss of control VFR into IMC? Nothing.

[Squawk7700]

Boy I hope he's been mis quoted ....what a load of rubbish. What has GPS got to do with loss of control VFR into IMC? Nothing.

They would just be referring to how you can select a GPS course and have the auto pilot stick to it. Therefore if you hit IMC in theory you just hit the AP button and select a course.

[cattletruck]

The Age article quotes a fisherman saying he saw a plane flying at about 100ft heading straight towards ominous looking clouds. Of course, it could have been a SAR plane after the event.

One thing that I think hasn't been mentioned here yet is the condition of misjudging height above water when in clear air and with no solid horizontal references. We often hear of this when the water is glassy smooth, but the illusion could have been strong enough to captivate four pilots on that day.

[Egipps]

😔hmm 100 metres or a 100ft. Methinks the article referred to 100 metres.

[The Zenith]

Looking at the prop in the herald sun photo it seemed as though one of the blades had its back facing forwards in the direction of travel.

[framer]

I hear what you're saying S7700 but the article made it sound like GPS was a way out of LOC in this situation when the reality is it doesn't have anything to do with it. Anyway, for his sake I hope he was mis-quoted because it makes him look like a d1ck to anyone who knows about aviation.
On the auto-pilot.....when I was in GA and flying VH aircraft of the same vintage I rarely used an A/P as they were so troublesome. It was safer to leave it alone.