US Legacy Age 65 Retirements [Archive]

bafanguy

10th Jan 2016, 21:33

Haven't seen any recent discussion of the subject and thought someone might be interested so I'll throw this out:

This is a unique time in US legacy airline history re pilot demand/supply. The legacies are losing VERY large percentages of their pilots to age 65 over the next 15+/- years. This continues beyond 2028 with annually decreasing numbers but the curve seems to peak about the end of 2028 +/-

Here's the legacy American Airlines data(not including merged USAir data which would only make it more dramatic I think).

And, by the way, Delta is losing 68% of the list between 2013 and 2028 due only to age 65. And almost NOBODY leaves a US legacy voluntarily but there will be medical dropouts to alter the year-by-year numbers by a smallish amount. I haven't seen any data from the merged UAL/CAL list but would like to see it:

Projected Retirements for 2016 - 2036 (Legacy AA only)
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 1/5/2016

Year Total
01/10/2016 - 12/31/2016 114
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 161
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 261
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 375
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 499
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 572
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 641
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 691
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 718
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 732
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 716
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 546
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 506
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 456
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 472
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 431
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 403
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 301
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 223
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 154
__________________

bafanguy

18th Jan 2016, 16:19

From a reliable source:

UAL age-65 annual pilot retirement attrition as of Jan/2016. Total list is now 11,971 pilots:

2016--273
2017--373
2018--373
2019--403
2020--406
2021--491
2022--463
2023--538
2024--485
2025--594
2026--643
2027--622
2028--733
2029--670
2030--649
2031--646
2032--476
2033--404
2034--357
2035--364
2036--260
2037--230
2038--218
2039--206
2040--180
2041--126
2042--110
2043--103
2044--86
2045--60
2046--50
2047--40
2048--25
2049--5
2050--3
2051--3
2052--1
2053--2
2054--0
2055--0

careerSO

21st Jan 2016, 08:59

Any word on how these airlines plan to hire in the future - I.e will guys working overseas on heavies be considered or will they be able to fill the slots with regional guys with PIC time? Seems a lot of places to fill and a lot of training capacity if they do it the traditional way.

Even the legacies in Europe are starting to hire straight onto longhaul.

zondaracer

21st Jan 2016, 13:22

They will hire whoever they want to hire, to include regional pilots, ACMI pilots, military, guys coming back from overseas contracts, corporate and fractional pilots... And believe it or not guys are getting hired from my company with 0 turbine PIC.

wanabee777

21st Jan 2016, 13:27

From another reliable source:

Delta age 65 retirements

2016--214
2017--273
2018--390
2019--479
2020--583
2021--779
2022--836
2023--796
2024--793
2025--713
2026--607
2027--516
2028--509
2029--511
2030--541
2031--475
2032--417
2033--350
2034--293
2035--247
2036--242

TowerDog

21st Jan 2016, 13:51

Now there is talk about aga 67, not sure how serious it is.
I am out, medical retirement from a US Legacy at age 58.
It was fun flying the world for 37 years. :cool:

bafanguy

21st Jan 2016, 15:06

TD,

Yep, I hear passing references to age 67 also...nothing concrete. No way to tell if that'd do any good or even if "good" is needed.

How many people stay to 65 anyway ? I don't know. How many are physically able to ? Dunno. How many could get to 67 ? Nobody knows..it may be no fix at all.

The DL situation is interesting because, IIUC, the NW guys have their defined benefit plan intact and are therefore under no pressure to stay to the end to make up for pension losses. Must be nice.

I'd guess the top end of the Part 121 world isn't where the squeeze will be felt since that's where so many people aim career wise. Even if they have to accept people with less overall experience, I'd guess they'll fill the seats...and you know that's what they'll do if it comes to that. Probably not the end of the world...just a change. People will say the sky is falling, though. :-)

The legacies have their pick these days. The average TTL time of DL new hires since they started hiring in earnest in 2014 is 7,000+/- hrs with solid PIC time. Not sure how UAL, AA, SWA, FedEx, UPS, JB, etc. are doing in that department. I'm guessin' the same.

Interesting times. If a young person can hit this wave on the upslope, pre-2029ish, it's gonna be a fantastic career.

Not sure how the Part 91K, 135, straight 91, low-end 121 gigs will make out. They may be the ones to feel the heat first.

I think I put a link to a study by a Rand Corp guy on here somewhere but can't remember where. It's the best one I've seen and I've tried to read them all.

Fun stuff, no ?

bafanguy

21st Jan 2016, 15:21

Wanabe777,

Yep, those pretty much jive with mine. I got mine right off the DL flt ops website just prior to Jan/2014 so they offered a Big Picture snapshot of what the whole issue would be through 2047 as they kicked off the hiring spree.

Kinda eye opening...my quoted figure of 68% age-out of the current list by end of 2028 was based on that data.

The numbers will change some over time as not everyone at DL is staying to 65. But, I don't know how many are pulling the plug pre-65.

wanabee777

21st Jan 2016, 16:53

But for the termination of the pre-merger DAL pilots' Defined Benefit Pension Plan, there would be substantially more retirements pre age 65.

It's unfortunate that the PBGC forfeited their right to seek refunding of the Plan once Delta exited Chapter 11 and became profitable again.

Currently, Delta is awash is cash as evidenced by stock buybacks and senior management's compensation packages.

Delta's CEO Just Cashed a $17.6 Million Paycheck for the Last Year ? Skift (http://skift.com/2015/04/30/deltas-ceo-just-cashed-a-17-6-million-paycheck-for-the-last-year/)

bafanguy

27th Jan 2016, 12:30

I guess FedEx is a rightly a "legacy" freight airline.

Judging by the guy who posted this data, who I'm pretty sure is a FedEx pilot who also runs a very well respected pilot interview prep company (Emerald Coast Consulting ?), I say this is likely good data as of mid 2015. They aren't losing as many compared to the Big Three pax legacies so I'd expect the competition to be stiff.

They have ~ 4,300 pilots.

Here are the FedEx (potential) retirement numbers…pilots turning 65. Some may leave early for any number of reasons:
2014: 69
2015: 110
2016: 114
2017: 163
2018: 177
2019: 144
2020: 178
2021: 206
2022: 211
2023: 222
2024: 229
2025: 218
2026: 241
2027: 209
2028: 203
2029: 186

misd-agin

28th Jan 2016, 19:59

Before the latest hiring wave AA had 77% of it's pilot corps retiring by the end of 2029 (based on everyone staying to Age 65).

Adding LUS retirements increases the LAA totals for the combined airline -

Combined will be just shy of 800 in 2019, 800+ in 2020, 900 ish in 2021-2022, just shy of 1000 in 2023, 900+ in 2024-2025, and then dropping to a more manageable (!) 700 in 2026, 600 in 2027, and then stabilizing at an average of over 400 for the next 5 years.

About 1,300 in the next three years. Then about 6,200 retirements in 7 years. Then only 2,700 in the next 5 yrs.

bafanguy

28th Jan 2016, 20:17

misd-agin,

Yep, this is gonna get interestin' pretty soon.

Since you appear to have some inside dope on AA, what's your take on the number of AA people who've been bypassing recall and are facing a time when return or cutting bait will be required ?

I've heard that ~900 are still bypassing with the end of that option coming this year. The scuttlebutt is that only 10% of those will elect to return. Any truth to that from your sources ?

P.S.

Speaking of USAir retirements, I have these numbers from a couple of years ago…Audries Aircraft Analysis, IIRC. They were from an unattributed source but may be in the ballpark ? ( I prefer dated/attributed data from the original source) Something to kick around, I guess. Audries has gone to a pay-to-play format so I can't see what's there now if it even is after the merger. Add them to AA legacy and it gets impressive:
2015--227
2016--269
2017--295
2018--308
2019--329
2020--306
2021--312
2022--263
2023--299
2024--239
2025--229

misd-agin

29th Jan 2016, 13:40

Audries' data was accurate. But only for the second that the 'enter' button was pushed. So the LUS data is too high based on a late 2014 list.

How many of the remaining 903 guys come back? The company's estimating 100-150 but no one knows. It might be 20, it might be 700. So 10% is in the ballpark for the guesses that are out there.

For guys not hired, or currently not that competitive to get hired, the returning guys are on average 10-12 years older than OTS hires. So if you can't get hired this year you're hoping as many returnees as possible come back vs. hiring younger OTS guys ahead of you.

May 7th is the last day the have to announce their intentions to accept recall or quit. We'll know then. And how many say they'll come back but actually don't show for their training class? Zero? One? Ten? Fifty? So the number on May 7th but be slightly different than the actual number of guys that show for training.

bafanguy

29th Jan 2016, 16:20

misd-agin,

Thanks for the info.

bafanguy

30th Jan 2016, 18:37

Just for contrast, the middle of last year, Audries listed this data for UPS retirements 2015/2020. Not very many at all:

2015--28
2016--40
2017--50
2018--60
2019--72
2020--94

UPS | Audries Aircraft Analysis (http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/ups-pilot-demand/)

Kapitanleutnant

1st Feb 2016, 05:10

I think you guys are missing something here:

While all those figures quoted here are true and impressive for future pilot jobs... and having been in this biz for about 30 years now.... between now and 2028 or much sooner, there WILL be a recession and airlines will look to reduce the numbers. This will stop the hiring plain and simple. So the demand side will not be there nearly the way it is now for a few years more than likely.

Also figure in that oil while at $30/barrel these days is going to rise which at some point even with hedging, will catch up to the airlines.

Not to rain on the parade but the hiring will at some point reduce drastically or more than likely stop... but only for a while. These are the highest numbers of retirements ever seen in the airline industry before.

Kap

bafanguy

1st Feb 2016, 08:36

Kapitanleutnant,

You're undoubtedly right. An economic downturn, with some attendant effect on pilot employment, is inevitable...bet the rent money on it. :-)

I can only guess what the degree of effect will be under the current retirement picture. I have absolutely no idea but WONDER if such extraordinarily large numbers might at least not ameliorate some of the negative economic effects on the junior people. Perhaps an airline bleeding pilots out the top end might not lay off as many in a downturn...or even need to continue hiring even if just a little ? Maybe a de facto form of furlough protection if nothing else ?

Beats me...

homoeconomicus

2nd Feb 2016, 10:33

Waiting for one of them to call 🙏 . They take their time !!!

bafanguy

4th Feb 2016, 20:49

homo,

You have internal recommendations to get your app pulled from the stack of 8K qualified others and reviewed, right ? That seems to be almost a requirement with the US legacies.

Putting in an app without them and hoping to get reviewed is akin to playing Pin The Tail On The Donkey.

Best of luck in the hunt.

misd-agin

4th Feb 2016, 21:14

Internal recommendations are not required at AA to get selected.

Others require them.

bafanguy

4th Feb 2016, 21:41

misd-agin,

I agree. "required internals" is a real-world, functional, unofficial, results-based notion...and a bit sloppy wording on my part. That's why I said, "...almost a requirement...".

Obviously, people get selected for interview without internals but internals sure grease the skids. I know of one legacy that set up an email address specifically dedicated to accepting internal recs...FACT. That would appear to be a strong indication they're important.

I don't know that any carrier makes internals a make-or-break, published requirement.

But, wanna get called ? The more internals a person has, the better his chances. The legacies are swamped with apps from people who meet, and far exceed, the published quals. The US has pilots running out its ears.

[and what to do after getting the call...to survive the interview is another subject entirely...requiring its own thread]

It's a jungle out there. And Jungle Rules apply.

Sorta makes me glad to be retired...and not job hunting.

boofhead

5th Feb 2016, 20:05

I manage a Part 135 operation. After the 1500 hour/ATP requirement for Part 121 came in I have found that I cannot find qualified pilots. I used to get applications around 3 a week from qualified people now I get none. I had a bunch of full time pilots but now I rely on part timers because I lost all my good guys to the majors and freight carriers. I do part time flight instructing and no longer have anybody wanting to learn to fly to be a commercial pilot.

I believe that it is now impossible to fail a check ride in the airlines because there are no replacements available. I have seen some of the smaller airlines upgrading their guys to command with as little as 1800 hours. Pilots are flying longer hours with fewer days off because there are not enough to man the number of airplanes the carriers want to fly, many airplanes are being put out to pasture because of a lack of pilots and many airports are shutting down because of the drop in frequency of airplane movements required to get the FAA subsidy.

The military does not release many pilots any longer, they have cut back their own training and pay bonuses to keep the ones they have.

They say that the problem was the Colgan accident, which was not caused by low time pilots without ATPs but by pilots who were fatigued and did not follow the correct stall procedures. The PIC was reported to have failed several check rides. The 1500 hour rule does nothing to fix these problems, in fact it makes them worse.

As a confirmed conspiracy theorist I believe that the FAA has knowingly done this to kill aviation in the USA. Maybe they all want to retire on full pensions.

Consider a youngster who wants a career as an airline pilot. She must get a degree first, so that will take 4 years. She is now 22. Then she has to get 1500 hours. How to do that? Be a CFI? Fly the Geico banner? Work in the bush flying a PA28? How long to get 1500 hours? 7 years? 10?

So at a minimum age of 32 she is now qualified to knock on the door of the airline and apply for a job that pays $20,000 to $30,000 a year and with loans around $500,000.

Nobody would ever see that as a reasonable course and they are proving it by staying away from aviation. The only training going on in the USA is for the foreign airlines, who will continue to put those pilots into the right seats of their 777 and 747s with 400 hours total. And compete with the US carriers.

Even if they increase the retiring age to 70 it will not solve the problem of attrition, it will only delay it. We are becoming quite good at kicking the can down the road.

Spooky 2

6th Feb 2016, 00:08

So much mis-information in the above post that it really should removed. Where do you come up with stuff like this?

boofhead

7th Feb 2016, 08:10

It is commonly talked about online.

Pilot Shortage: Regional Airlines Are Cutting Flights - Businessweek (http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-02-11/yes-theres-a-pilot-shortage-salaries-start-at-21-000)

http://airinsight.com/2014/05/16/the-pilot-shortage/

http://news.yahoo.com/video/pilot-shortage-driving-costs-081453664.html;_ylt=AwrTHRopCLdW3nMAz69XNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyaW tpc2p2BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjE1NjNfMQRzZWMDc2M-

The US airline industry?s pilot shortage | Aspire Aviation (http://www.aspireaviation.com/2014/02/27/us-airline-industry-pilot-shortage/)

The Pilot Shortage 2015 and Beyond | Coast Flight Training | Coastflight (http://iflycoast.com/the-pilot-shortage-2015-and-beyond/)

Fact and Fallacy of the Looming ?Pilot Shortage? (http://www.askthepilot.com/pilot-shortage/)

The Pilot Shortage Is Real and Regional Airlines Are Feeling It ? Skift (http://skift.com/2014/08/08/the-pilot-shortage-is-real-and-regional-airlines-are-feeling-it/)

Pilot Shortage Hitting Home at Racca Member Airlines | Air Transport News: Aviation International News (http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2015-05-23/pilot-shortage-hitting-home-racca-member-airlines)

IWF -The Pilot Shortage Made in Congress (http://www.iwf.org/news/2793143/The-Pilot-Shortage-Made-in-Congress)

This enough for you?

bafanguy

7th Feb 2016, 11:53

The issue of "pilot shortage" is incredibly complex and data dependent, some of which isn't even available as it's driven by events which no one can foretell and/or companies won't disclose. I don't see a way for a conclusion about its existence to be reduced to small scale, anecdotal bits & pieces.

Mike McGee's RAND study is probably the best one I've seen (and I've tried to read every one I can find) as it's not produced by an organization with an economic and/or political stake in having the study indicate one conclusion or the other.

With all the hiring at the US legacy level, or near-legacy level, the domino effect will produce pressures in other segments of the industry as people try to move up to move to circumstances they feel are "better", ultimately a purely individual, subjective word. Some amount of time will be required for industry adjustments to events; pilots can't be cranked out like Fords on an assembly line.

I remain a very serious skeptic about a "shortage" as the term is somewhat undefined. And without an agreed upon definition, everyone is speaking a different language when trying to discuss all of this.

[and of course, I could just be completely WRONG ! :-)]

At any rate, my only interest in starting this thread was to let our non-US amigos see some properly-sourced, hard data about what's happening at the Big Three (or Four...or Five ?) over here...just for grins & giggles. Circumstances elsewhere in the world are not part of this particular matter.

The shortage issue is a very different subject and time will reveal the facts.

boofhead

7th Feb 2016, 16:34

The 65 issue is a factor indeed. I can assure you that the lack of qualified pilots has a very real and deleterious effect on the smaller Part 121 and many Part 135 operations already, with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place. Without the support for the base, the entire aviation industry can collapse, or standards will have to be dropped so far that our present exemplary efficiency and safety will become history.

bafanguy

9th Feb 2016, 21:06

Boof,

I'm not convinced this statement is accurate in the US: "…with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place."

Are you familiar with the Aviation Accreditation Board International ? You can find details on their website but they represent university aviation programs and have for quite a while.

Here are the university flight programs, so far:

Aviation Accreditation Board International Accredited Programs (http://www.aabi.aero/programs.html)

Some have been in existence for 50+ years.

I contacted my long time acquaintance whose entire career has been pilot education and who has been affiliated with AABI for a very long time. I asked him what percentage of the training slots these schools represent are now filled by students. He said:

"I don’t know exact percentages, but I think everyone is basically doing well, with strong enrollments."

He did say he wonders if these schools are able to fill the demand over time but was speaking of the university system AABI represents, IIUC; there are also many other commercial training organizations from big schools (ATP, American Flyers, etc.) to mom-and-pop flight schools…even experiments like Jetblue's proposed ab initio program (details/impact/copycats yet to come).

The military has seemingly been cutting back and some UPT grads are being sent to drones so that traditional source may be less than in previous decades.

Things here are in flux with every day being a new day. There'll be pain short term and it sounds like you're experiencing some of it.

I have strong confidence in the ability of the market here to respond to demand despite the heavy, incompetent hand of government. We're not Kazakhstan…we have the practiced, long-proven infrastructure in place to respond to market demand even if it takes a while…and it certainly will.

And, yes, this all can change with the next economic upheaval or geopolitical disaster.

SextanteUK

14th Feb 2016, 08:52

I was talking to a friend few weeks ago, and we agreed that with this retirement numbers, even if we get a HUGE recession, they will still hire, at a lower pace, but they will have to, in our opinion.

We are not talking about a few hundred retirements here and there, we are talking about thousands and thousands.

On the other hand, and I admit that it's sad, but since recessions are now something more and more common, the economy suffers a lot, layoffs everywhere, etc etc....but at the same time people will keep travelling, won't just sit waiting, they'll for opportunities and stuff like that.

So if we are talking about I don't know, 12-14,000 retirements in the next 20 years? (no idea about the precise number), maybe with a few crisis and recessions here and there, crews will get to fly a lot more if they are undercrewed, and they would end up hiring 6-8,000 instead.....just throwing a number.

What I'm trying to say is that no matter how bad the economy is, those airlines are huge, tons of routes, tons of passengers, and they could stop hiring if they didn't have so so many retirements.

And being politicians as dumb as a human being can be, I wanna think they learn a couple of things everytime economy goes to hell, so next time is a different reason or it doesn't last that much.

bafanguy

14th Feb 2016, 14:39

SextanteUK,

To put some broader context to your point about numbers of US age-65 retirements, I got a bar graph of that data directly from ALPA R & I people. It was based on early 2012 numbers of ONLY [at that time...a couple of others added since then] ALPA-represented airlines and spans 2012 through 2056 so it's just a tad out of date. The curve seems to peak about the 2026/2028 time frame after which the annual totals shown begin decreasing but are still substantial for a long time.

These numbers will have morphed somewhat for a variety of reasons but still represent a Big Picture snapshot as of a few years ago.

For the 15 year period inclusive of 2016 through 2031, the total age-outs are: 26,886

As you said, events can alter the situation considerably but I'd guess the people on the bottom of seniority lists here can take at least a small measure of comfort in that data. Of course, first ya gotta GET the job...a whole other thread ! Try to hit it on the upswing. :-)

(I don't know how to post that chart or I would.)

SextanteUK

15th Feb 2016, 10:20

Dang! 26,886 is a HUGE number, so even better haha. Let's say they end up hiring 50% of that number, I should get lucky :E

Once I finish my training in a couple of months I'll have 350h, so I still need to get to 1500h, get my degree online while a fly for 'X' years in a regional, and then who knows. I'm just trying to be positive and visualize a prosperous future :ok:

I saw a couple of RJ carriers with flow to AA, where they specify no degree is required anymore!, wich makes me think they foresee a real need in the future no matter what.

We'll see!! :8

bafanguy

15th Feb 2016, 20:35

SextanteUK,

Someone who actually knows what he's talking about may come along to give career guidance but I get the IMPRESSION that the hours between a fresh CPL and 1500 may be some of the hardest to get.

And, if you're going to get a degree online, you might want to get on with that as soon as you finish flight training since life can get in the way and slow down progress.

Airlines may not advertise a degree as a requirement but that doesn't mean they don't prefer one as a way to differentiate between otherwise similar applicants. It's their party so they decide who gets invited even if their POV is of debatable logic.

A degree is roundly debated but the opinion of the airline HR policy makers is the only one that matters.

SextanteUK

15th Feb 2016, 23:19

I'm from Spain, and over there is almost impossible to get to 1500h unless you pay for it. Other than than that you can only apply to Ryanair and company, and if you get lucky, then you gotta pay your type rating, some 25k+.

Not saying is super easy here, but there are a lot of operators out there hiring with CPL and 250h. Salary is crap, but it is what it is, and this sacrifice will open doors in the future. Think Alaska operators, Caravan Operatos, pipeline patrol, and of course the CFI route. So it should take around 18 months to get to 1500h, once I'm hired somewhere. I'll cross my fingers :8

And yes, as soon as is doable, money/time wise, I'll start with my degree, and hopefully they'll give some credits for my ratings. :ok:

misd-agin

16th Feb 2016, 13:33

You can add about 10,000 AA pilot retirements to the ALPA numbers.

SextanteUK

16th Feb 2016, 13:52

even better!!, If I don't making in the next 5 years then I should just go back to construction haha. :yuk:

boofhead

20th Feb 2016, 04:03

I am advertising all over the US for pilots and the resumes sent to me are not anything as good as they were even three years ago. The pickings for me are slim to non-existent. So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need, whereas a few years back I was able to choose from many highly qualified pilots and resumes were sent to me dozens a week with many great people simply walking in the door. After a major advertising blitz I just took on 5 pilots to replace those lost to the majors and freight companies and only one is willing to give me full time.

The salaries in my area have gone up amazingly to attract pilots but even then there are few or no takers.

I know the majors will never have trouble but for every pilot at AA thousands are required at the lower level to support that demand. The pyramid of pilots has the airline captains at the apex and without a solid base that pyramid will topple.

I can assure you that the dozens of articles written by the Part 135 and Part 121 Regionals every week reporting the shortage are true.

The most logical reason for the shortage is the 1500 hour requirement, which had nothing to do with safety and everything to do with ego.

White Sausage

20th Feb 2016, 04:43

No, the most logical reason for this shortage is the crap salary you and the others are offering! Why do you think there isn't a shortage anywhere else in the world?

bafanguy

20th Feb 2016, 10:58

boofhead,

"So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need..."

When you say "experience", do you mean total time, time in type or in a specific category of flying ?

IIRC, you're in Alaska ? If so, do you require/accept only Alaska experience ? No one applied you could hire and bring along to be what you need/require.

In terms of total flight time, it's gained one hour at a time and can't be rushed all that much. And, there's only one way to get Alaska experience. :-)

I certainly believe it when you say there's a supply pressure at the moment as people are undoubtedly moving from one job to another they like better or one that'll contribute to getting them two jumps up the ladder longer term.

While it's little consolation at the moment, the available data shows the vacancy vacuum at the legacy level peaking circa 2028.

I don't know anything at all about Part 135 ops. I've only known people who did it before or after a Part 121 career...and very few of those.

RTMorley

20th Feb 2016, 14:43

I too don't know where you get your numbers from! I am what you refer to as a "Legacy" and have been unemployed for 7 years! Because of my "Age", no one will look at me or any other pilot over 50! Please understand this; THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE!!!! THERE NEVER HAS BEEN A PILOT SHORTAGE!! It's all B.S.!!! Could there BE a pilot shortage? Sure. Especially the way Corporations treat their pilots and the cost of getting all the necessary Ratings. The truth is, most "Companies" these days want "Qualified" pilots who look like they just stepped of the pages of GQ Magazine in addition to allow themselves to become "indentured slaves". Also factor in the fact that "They" are currently developing "Pilotless Aircraft!! That's right! For years now "They" have been developing AND testing "Self-Flying Aircraft!! Imagine what THAT will do to "Pilot Demand"!!!

boofhead

23rd Feb 2016, 14:38

I just told you the salaries have gone up so that is not the reason. I can see that at the top there is no shortage but what I am saying is that there are way fewer people joining aviation at the bottom and without those numbers the pyramid will fall. The 1500/ATP rule had nothing to do with safety. Frankly I don't know why it was enacted because it can only hurt. Most airlines would not promote to command until a few thousand hours at least and a SIC in the right seat would at least be getting training in the areas of operation. Now the potential SIC has to get the hours outside, perhaps flight instructing, gaining no useful experience in the business, before being even able to apply for the first job.

Now the numbers of beginners is way low and the effect on the top after a few more years will be just as bad as it is now at the lower levels of the industry, such as Part 135.

boofhead

23rd Feb 2016, 14:43

g-code

24th Feb 2016, 07:20

UK, get your instructor ratings. Tons of places hiring and you can get the flight time you need quickly. Also don't count on not having a degree. I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, but I'll put it like this: I have a friend who had 14 internal letters of rec at United, went to 3 job fairs, and about 5,000 hours. A few weeks after he got his degree he got the email for the psych test.

foswillruletheworld

24th Feb 2016, 11:04

So what should a first officer do to get a job in a US major who has 3,000 hours on 737 and 2,000 hours on 777, when he doesn't have neither a US citizenship nor a greencard. I will not believe this pilot shortagee thing 100% until they start handing out greencards to the available candidates.

g-code

24th Feb 2016, 16:50

ruletheworld,

The majors won't ever be handing out greencards. They each have about 13,000 resumes on file, and its extremely competitive to get an interview. The number of pilots being hired without a 4 year degree is extremely low. Ive heard of one in the past couple of years.

I know of some without a degree who have gone to Atlas, but in order to get on at United, Delta, American, Southwest, or Fedex it would be foolhardy not to get one.

FOs are also only making up about 10% of new hire classes and usually have other things on their resume to overcome the lack of PIC time. (union work, volunteering, extensive networking, etc.)

Not trying to be discouraging, just presenting the reality. Regionals are a different story however.

foswillruletheworld

24th Feb 2016, 16:56

I do carry a 4 year degree, which in my case is Software Engineering degree.
I can speak both english and german. I have lots of voluntary work on my resume.
Only 2 things missing are the grencard and the PIC time.
There is nothing else missing, but of course that is my personal opinion. Maybe they are looking for some additional attributes.
After i get my upgrade i will hav the PIC time, too. Then it will only be greencard missing, will i be eligible?

shedsd360

28th Feb 2016, 15:40

Clearly the salary you give isn't enough for someone with 4K and PIC in ME. That's your problem, not the 1500 hour rule.

bafanguy

15th Mar 2016, 21:00

boofhead,

Just been mulling over your comment in post #26:

"I can assure you that the lack of qualified pilots has a very real and deleterious effect on the smaller Part 121 and many Part 135 operations already, with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place."

I'm just not entirely convinced that "...few if any youngsters coming up..." is correct.

I fished around for some data addressing that issue and found FAA stats in a bird's-eye-view document produced by University of North Dakota (for our overseas folks, UND is a well known university flight program here) There are several graphs ranging from student pilot certificates issued through ATPs issued...FAA data.

[sorry the UND report containing the data is a pdf...couldn't figure out how to give a direct link to the report...links provided below]

While the data mostly goes only through 2014, CPLs issued began a marked upswing in the 2013-2014 range.

The bar graph of people taking the CPL written shows that while there are many foreign people taking it, that number is exceeded by US citizens taking it. This would be a reasonable indication of US citizens intending to pursue flying on a serious basis.

While there are certainly large numbers of foreign nationals here for training, I doubt they make up the numerical majority of people in the OVERALL US training pipeline. I've heard the number tossed around of 95% of flight school students being foreign nationals; I seriously doubt that but can't get the specific data. There may be some training entities specializing in training non-US folks where 95% may be true, but overall ? Seriously doubt that...especially in the numerous university programs where the flight training spread over years of the quarter/semester academic system wouldn't fit the needs of foreign carriers, allegedly in need of pilots, sending people here for training to satisfy a pressing need at home; the dedicated commercial FTOs would fit the demand much better.

And...the number of CFIs issued began a nearly vertical upturn in 2013/2014. It's safe to say that those folks are serious about flying professionally.

And speaking of CFIs...there has been a distinct uptick in the number of CFI job postings online. I suppose one could surmise this is due to CFIs moving up to whatever they feel is the next rung of the professional ladder of career advancement. If few people were entering the training pipeline, why would these vacancies need to be filled ? Or maybe more CFIs are needed just because even MORE people are signing up to learn to fly ? I really can't say that solely from the data but it's a good question.

Now, in the 2013/partial-2014 range, the number of ATPs issued dropped but this was following the FAR change related to taking the ATP written...an onerous, expensive hurdle to jump just to be allowed to even take it. It's understandable there'd be a drop. But, since then, the regional carriers have had to move that training program for the written in-house to get people onboard and comply with the FAR changes to ATPs for F/Os. I'd like to see what happened in late 2014 through today. I'm going to guess the curve stopped it's downward trend.

So, after all that word salad, I say there are plenty of people entering the system. The profession has taken a serious image hit in the media; research is needed to see if the sky-is-falling atmosphere is correct. I suppose only time will tell for sure.

Here are the links. If the "Track1 Report..." link won't take you directly to the report, go to the aabi.aero link and select the "Track 1 Report" option.

Aviation Accreditation Board International (http://www.aabi.aero/Feb2016.html)

Track 1 Report - Flight Operations and FOQ Update

Track 1 Report - Flight Operations and FOQ Update

Lucky8888

17th Mar 2016, 01:41

I hate to say never but I'll say it here. You'll never get a pilot job in the U.S. without at least a Green Card.There are just too many out-of-work/underpaid pilots available.

A Squared

17th Mar 2016, 21:11

Yes I need Alaska experience but more importantly I need 4000 hours flight time and a large amount of PIC time in multi engine airplanes. It is a tough world out there. I am competing with the majors and freight carriers and they offer jet time and a career, as well as way more money than I can ever hope to pay. In the olden times those carriers would have their choice of youngsters with 500 hours or so, but now they, like me, will take whatever is on offer.

I used to get more than enough to have a decent choice but no longer. One of my best pilot pools is those who have retired at 65, can you believe it?

Ok, I have pretty close to 3 times your minimum time, most of it in Alaska. How much are you going to pay me to make a career out of flying your Navajo? How many days on call per month, and how many off? Is your call on shifts, or do you expect pilots to always be available any time of the day or night? What medical benefits do you offer? What retirement benefits? Let's hear some specifics here rather than generalities.

CSU_Ram

22nd Mar 2016, 16:35

Actually, I can believe it, especially if you require experience in Alaska. This is exactly the reason the U.S. needs to either push mandatory retirement to 67-70 or eliminate it all together.

If you can pass a 1st class medical why can you not operate a crew served aircraft? ALL the medical incapacitations in the U.S. have occurred to pilots UNDER the age of 60.

bafanguy

22nd Mar 2016, 21:15

CSU_ Ram,

Changing the mandatory retirement age...or even proposing there shouldn't even be one is opening a real can o'worms here in the USA. Standby for heated incoming. :-)

I don't see raising the age as any practical solution to anything because we don't know how many 65+ y/o pilots could hold a Class 1 medical...or an intensified, modified version of it because of the increased age...or would even want to run that gauntlet. And physical standards are only part of the equation and may not be the more important part which would be MUCH harder to test and quantify.

The resulting numbers might be too small to help offset the alleged "shortage" and therefore just not worth the effort.

And... at some point, a person just might like to sit on the porch and watch you young hard chargers flail wildly in the roiling scrum. It took me a while but that's now what I prefer to being stuffed in the pointy end even under the best possible conditions (and they were the BEST possible circumstances). But, it took me a while.

CSU_Ram

22nd Mar 2016, 22:04

bafanguy

22nd Mar 2016, 22:52

CSU_ram,

The issue isn't "To each his own." There's no answer there.

The issue isn't the occasional guy who can "...strap on 50 lbs of rocks and climb mountains." Or the "...the 75 year old Gulfstream pilots passing my jet...". Statistically insignificant data.

The issue is replacing thousands of Part 121 pilots hitting the end of their careers...whatever the max age or the lack thereof. Eliminating the max age isn't the answer...won't solve the problem...won't produce thousands of Part 121 pilots which is the subject of this thread. It's a numbers game and adding small numbers of 65+ y/o people who can jump the hurdles for another couple of years won't win that game.

But, sure go ahead and eliminate the max age. Give it a go. I actually don't care but would vote for your plan if given the chance just to see how it played out.

I'm 69 years old...did my 35 years in Part 121. And wish you young folks all the best.

A Squared

23rd Mar 2016, 00:02

To each his own. I just remember one guy who I flew with in the olden days. He'd strap on 50 lbs of rocks and climb mountains. He'd kayak the Inside Passage in Alaska. When he was forced to retire at Age 60 he was probably in better shape than the new hires coming on the property.

The only difference between the Part 121 pilots and the Part 135 pilots is REGULATION. While our passengers are buying individual seats, their passengers are chartering the entire airplane. So what's the difference between us and the 75 year old Gulfstream pilots passing my jet on the CEPAC routes every day.

None that I can see. Passing a 1st class physical should be the ONLY limitation on a pilot's career.

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, I don't think that's going to be much of a solution. Realistically the further you are past 65, the fewer who *will* be able to pass a first class, ad the fewer who *want* to keep flying. Obviously one can point at certain individuals still flying, but I suspect that if we just did away with the mandatory retirement age, we'd find thet the percentage of pilots who were both able to maintain a first class medical *and* wanted to continue full time employment after age 67, was a fairly small percentage.

Add to that, that may pensions and other retirement schemes are designed around retirement at age 65-67. One of my co-workers just went thru this. He's a flight engineer, so not subject to mandatory retirement, but he retired, not because he wanted to retire, but he had reached a point where staying employed longer was actually causing him to lose retirement. benefits.

Additionally I think that you'd also have some pretty strenuous push-back from a number of groups on a move like this.

But, this is all based on the false premise that there's a pilot shortage. There isn't. If you asked a hundred pilots what their top three airlines to retire from, if they could choose, and you visited the recruiting departments of those airlines, I'm pretty sure you'd find that those airlines aren't having any difficulty at all getting more applicants than they have positions, by a wide margin. The airlines crying "pilot shortage!!!" are the ones who are not offering a competitive package of compensation and schedule.

bafanguy

23rd Mar 2016, 09:29

AxA,

Well said. And there are places where people can fly as long as willing or able: Parts 91, 91K, 135 and 125 (not sure how many of those are around these days). And some of those operators might be glad to get the old guys.

bafanguy

27th Apr 2016, 14:52

Just a bit of reliable data on Southwest Airlines age-65 retirements, short term. Not very many...compared:

'16 123
'17 156
'18 116
'19 139
'20 166
'21 221

total 921

zondaracer

27th Apr 2016, 15:02

Southwest has a relatively young pilot group. When I ride on a crew bus full of United/Delta/AA pilots, I feel like I'm at an AARP convention.

bafanguy

27th Apr 2016, 17:08

"When I ride on a crew bus full of United/Delta/AA pilots, I feel like I'm at an AARP convention. "

Zonda,

Well, that's cuz you ARE at an AARP convention !!! It should make you absolutely leap for joy !! :-)))

In those same years, DL, for example, has three times(+) as many scheduled age-outs. The airlines are of different sizes but empty seats are empty seats...assuming they intend to refill them.

An interesting twist is reflected in the actual retirements at DL in 2015: total 335 left...153@age 65...182 less than 65. The long term issue remains the same but that just moves things a little more into the present.

misd-agin

28th Apr 2016, 15:43

AA's the same, about half go to 65 and half are early retirements.

bafanguy

28th Apr 2016, 15:50

misd-,

It's only a guess but I'd say that the early-outs at DL are likely former NW people. They have their original DB retirement plan in effect...the widgetheads don't. That might influence a person's "attitude".

The AA people have the 100% lump sum option, IIRC. Sure wish I'd had that...we tried many years ago but couldn't get it. Oh well...

misd-agin

28th Apr 2016, 16:03

AA lump sum disappeared in BK. AA's benefit was 'frozen'. You will receive what you were entitled to at that date based on your current age when you retire. PBGC PC3 vs. PC4(PC??) classification, etc.

bafanguy

28th Apr 2016, 16:11

misd-,

Ahhh so...I feel your pain. The absolute last thing you want is to wake some morning and find out the PBGC has anything whatsoever to do with your pension.

NuGuy

4th May 2016, 02:35

bafanguy

4th May 2016, 09:27

Nu,

I'm familiar with frozen pension plans; DL froze the non-contract employee pensions in 2005 but they still have one.

But, the NW pilots didn't have their DB plan terminated in BK and turned over the the PBGC, IIUC. This would make their situation VERY different and likely preferable to what happened to DL pilots. We'll never get our full earned pension. The damage ranges from relatively unaffected (those already long retired) to getting absolutely NOTHING from PBGC...and every point on the scale between.

We're suing PBGC to correct their errors but frankly, our chances are pretty slim. However, I'm in the game to the end or until I croak. Hard to tell which'll happen first ! The USAir pilots didn't prevail, so...

Any way, that's kinda off in the weeds to most of the world, I guess. :-)

bafanguy

16th Sep 2016, 21:10

Getting back to the US legacies and their attrition replacement efforts, Delta is putting on its OWN pilot career fair at the HQ (3rd party organizations have been doing this stuff for a long time here). Approximately 1000 attendee tickets were available for the 2 day event in KATL. It appears those tickets evaporated in short order. No surprise there.

The plan is for attendees to get some face time with a Delta "recruiter" to learn about how to become a Delta pilot. Not sure where these "meetings" are supposed to lead a person...nor am I sure just what a "recruiter" is: HR types...retired pilots...current pilots...management types ?

How many recruiters will be on hand there to interact...in any productive way...with 500 eager hopefuls for a few hours a day ? How much time per attendee ? What do attendees get for their efforts ?

Delta doesn't have enough apps on file ?

Delta can't be soliciting applications. airlineapps.com and the internet have taken care of that.

It's just a bit puzzling...and NO...there isn't any pilot "shortage" here.

https://www.facebook.com/deltapilotrecruiting/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf

[Insert innuendo, speculation, rumor, supposition, half truth, WAGs, crew lounge truth and urban legend here...........]

I've only provided facts and questions.

bafanguy

21st Sep 2016, 21:14

Why is Delta doing this ? Have you seen this program advertised anyplace in the av media ? I haven't...but I don't see everything.

How big a market is there for this $5K/per exercise..to a multi-billion dollar airline ? The US regionals are already providing this program in-house...for free to new hires...cuz they HAVE to.

Why does one of the most desirable career destination carriers do something like this ?

Any thoughts ?

“While this is not a class to become a new hire pilot at Delta, it can be used by pilots looking to eventually be hired by any airline,” said Jon Tovani, Delta’s Managing Director of Pilot Training.

Yep...likely isn't a "...class to become a new hire pilot at Delta..." but how about AFTER you become a new hire pilot at Delta ?

New pilot certification program available through Delta | Delta News Hub (http://news.delta.com/new-pilot-certification-program-available-through-delta)

bafanguy

8th Oct 2017, 20:47

Not much new going on here with US legacy hiring. They're hiring but appear to be slowing down a bit.

I do know DL doesn't seem to be interviewing as many so far this year as recent previous years...and hiring a smaller percentage of those interviewed.

From another forum, a guy who runs a pilot prep website hosting a job fair made an interesting statement in post #25 with no explanation given. I assume given the nature of his company, his statement is accurate. I have no idea why UAL would completely stop hiring:

"Since United is not currently hiring, they will not be meeting with candidates."

https://forums.jetcareers.com/threads/aero-crew-solutions-free-virtual-pilot-job-fair.253436/

As for AA, while I don't have access to current info, anecdotally, they are hiring from regional flows and not so much from the street.

Any info you may have from an authoritative source would be appreciated.

bafanguy

5th Oct 2018, 10:32

This is interesting. Looks like FedEx is trying to discourage early pilot retirements ?:

"The delivery service wants to keep retirement-age pilots on the job with special incentives."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/fedex-to-use-special-bonuses-to-keep-pilots-from-retiring-report

bafanguy

1st Aug 2019, 22:56

Well, can't say I understand this one. SWA is a definite career-destination airline despite their comparatively slow seat movement versus other similar carriers. They aren't exactly hurting for applicants.

I don't see any regional component to this but expect there might be the tickets-CFI-regional-mainline route to this. Time will tell. It's apparently not a guarantee of a job:

"...ultimately can apply as first officers..."

https://atwonline.com/training/southwest-training-program-offers-first-officer-positions?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AtwDailyNews+%28ATW+Daily+News%29

bafanguy

2nd Aug 2019, 00:02

A bit more detail on SWA/CAE but still lacking details:

"The program, named Destination 225°, which on a compass rose points in a southwesterly direction, is designed to provide a flow of new pilots from CAE to Jet Linx, who can then move to Southwest."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2019/08/01/facing-an-industry-pilot-shortage-southwest-airlines-and-jet-linx-aviation-have-a-plan-for-that/#6f8f349e1d0b

havick

2nd Aug 2019, 00:18

bafanguy

2nd Aug 2019, 08:55

Details of the SWA Destination 225 deal are coming out. Applicants pay for all training. Looks a bit like DL's Propel program but as I read down through the various non-CFI levels of the "partner" companies, I don't see an actual regional airline but a few Part 135 operators which supports havick's statement above:

https://careers.southwestair.com/d225?utm_source=community&utm_campaign=OBAP2019 (https://careers.southwestair.com/d225?utm_source=community&utm_campaign=OBAP2019)

VH DSJ

3rd Aug 2019, 01:13

outside of military, SWA has tended to favor corporate pilots.

Southwest have recruited a bunch of experienced SkyWest captains in the last couple of years. Good to see they value experience.

flyboyike

3rd Aug 2019, 15:07

outside of military, SWA has tended to favor corporate pilots.

Is that so? Not saying that's not the case, I just never heard than before, nor does that particularly jive with my own observations.

bafanguy

3rd Aug 2019, 17:42

Good to see they value experience.

VH DSJ,

It's easy to value experience when you have legions of those very experienced pilots storming the front gate trying to get in. That's what makes their little Destination 225 program so puzzling. How experienced will those coming from that pipeline be ? As experienced as the present legions ? I guess we'll see...in about 10 years. Well, maybe you'll see...not sure I will.

JPJP

6th Aug 2019, 04:54

Southwest have recruited some SkyWest pilots in the last couple of years. Good to see they value anti union obedience, and a high opinion of themselves .

FIFY

outside of military, SWA has tended to favor corporate pilots.

The statistics clearly refute your statement.

bafanguy

30th Jan 2020, 08:41

Latest AA age 65 retirements. 2025 appears to be top of the curve:

Projected Retirements for 2020 - 2040
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)

Roster Data Updated on: 1/27/2020

Year Total
01/29/2020 - 12/31/2020 654
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 781
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 820
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 921
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 915
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 945
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 906
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 773
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 689
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 646
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 568
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 583
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 522
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 496
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 431
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 389
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 302
01/01/2037 - 12/31/2037 253
01/01/2038 - 12/31/2038 262
01/01/2039 - 12/31/2039 246
01/01/2040 - 12/31/2040 248