Weather 22nd December 2015

[Maddie]

Hi,

Wondering if anybody knows what the weather is likely to be from say 6.00pm to 9.00am on 23rd at BHX and Dub.

I know there are websites that give 10 day forecasts but guess some of ye here can see the wood from the trees and give me the best forecast.



Many thanks,

Maddie

[6000PIC]

I have consulted several aviation meteorological websites , plotted the jetstream position , atmospheric pressure and wind models and have come to the firm conclusion that between 6pm-9am on Dec 23rd in both BHX and DUB , it will be dark and cool , getting brighter in the morning. Any more questions , ask me on the 22nd.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

When I trained as a Met Observer waaaay back I was told that if faremers and other members of the public phoned to ask for a forecast then i was to answer as follows: If it was raining, say it's raining but we expect some sunny spells later. If it was not raining, say we expect a bright morning with a chance of some showers later. Seemed to cover most eventualities!

[ShyTorque]

The Met office are still at it. They are very fond of forecasting that visibility will be poor in cloud and hill fog...... :D

[Hotel Tango]

Maddie, if anyone could accurately forecast the weather in the UK & Ireland just 1 day in advance, let alone 10, they would become millionaires! I know you're a nervous flyer but rest assured that whatever the weather all will be fine.

[Doors to Automatic]

Birmingham forecasting 35% chance of rain showers and a South-Westerly wind of 12 knots and Dublin a 40% chance of rain with a 17kt wind from the South-West. Both airports will be around 11c. No problems either-way.

[kenparry]

The best way of finding out the weather on the 22nd is to ask the Met Office on the 23rd. No, I'm not joking.

[Hotel Tango]

D to A, we can all find advanced weather forecasts but just for fun let's see how accurate your source will have been on the day ;)

[Maddie]

Good evening, thank you all for your replies. Yep, I asked the question because having managed to 'dodge' a lot of the bad weather, I found myself on a flight on 4th December, which was heading straight into Storm Desmond. I didn't fly, and if I thought there could be a repeat on 22nd, I would have to reconsider my Christmas travel plans.

Many thanks,

Maddie

[Doors to Automatic]

Maddie - the first clear indication you will get will be on the BBC1 Countryfile show on Sunday evening at around 6pm - the weekly forecast is usually around 10 minutes before the end.

Hotel Tango - I have just looked at Accuweather's forecast which goes to 45 days! It must be a complete work of fiction beyond the first week!

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

I found myself on a flight on 4th December, which was heading straight into Storm Desmond. I didn't fly,

Did you then check after whether there was any issues on the flight you should have taken? I bet there weren't apart from maybe routine delays/a bit of turbulence to take the boredom out of it.

Take it from me, and many others, we wouldn't take you up there if it wasn't within the strict limits that we have to operate within, after all my ass is strapped to that aeroplane too and I want to come home to my family at the end of the day.

If you can't face it then fair enough, but why don't you just take the ferry then, that would be far more dangerous!

[PAXboy]

I don't think it's about danger per se, turbulence can be very upsetting. I have myself changed travel plans due to expected bad weather and I've been through my fair share of tubulence - both in large (747) and small (Saab 340, J41 and an 8 pax machine on the edge of a South African thunderstorm).

Further, I never go on ferries as the turbulence they can dole out is far worse! In 50 years, I have never doubted the aircraft would reach it's destination intact - I am not a nervous flyer and love being SLF - but severe turbulence I can do without.

[Hotel Tango]

I remember being in Detroit (some years ago now) on my way to JFK. There were thunderstorms all around with lots of impressive lightning. I was, to say the least, not feeling terribly comfortable about going up in that weather. We departed, zigzagged our way through, and to my utter amazement never felt the slightest bump. It was a total non event.

[crispey]

Current GFS computer model for that period shows a moderate SW air flow over UK/Ireland.Light showers possible.Strong SW jetstream over SE England.Low pressure from Iceland to Hebrides.Cooler than what we currently have but about normal for December.


These forecast models do change however.

[Hotel Tango]

These computer models are generally a waste of time, which is why forecasting has become so laughingly inaccurate!

[ZeBedie]

The mild, breezy weather is expected to continue for a while yet.

[UniFoxOs]

The worst problem with turbulence is being confined to your seat when you are busting for a pee, having watched for a short queue at the bog for a while, and just as it becomes worth getting into the queue the poxy seat belt lights go on. Then when, eventually they go off, I (being a bit of a slow old fart) end up at the end of an even longer queue than before.

Shouldn't be much of a problem BHX to DUB, though!

[Anodyne]

Of course the reported wind at BHX bears only passing resemblance to that actually experienced - I find multiplying the reported wind speed by about 1.5 (or checking the wind at East Midlands and assuming its going to be similar) gives a reasonable impression of what the approach is actually going to feel like.
I'm convinced the Birmingham anemometer is sealed in an air tight box at the bottom of a deep shaft!:)

[Rwy in Sight]

The worst problem with turbulence is being confined to your seat when you are busting for a pee, having watched for a short queue at the bog for a while, and just as it becomes worth getting into the queue the poxy seat belt lights go on. Then when, eventually they go off, I (being a bit of a slow old fart) end up at the end of an even longer queue than before.

Shouldn't be much of a problem BHX to DUB, though!

I share your feeling: once I decided not to go for a pee while on the ground in BRU saying I would do it just before the meal service ( I am a freak about washing the hands before eating). I got the longest lasting "fasten you seat belts" sign in a Trans-european flight I remember and needless to say the need to pee was becoming more and more intense.

Bad decision on the ground.

[Maddie]

Hi Guys,

It is tonight I am flying, is the descent likely to be very uncomfortable into Dublin circa 9.00pm.

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

Reasonably breezy but well within limits. I would think that there will be a few lumps and bumps, but nothing too uncomfortable. I should imagine that you will still be able to slurp your G&T without spelling much if any at all.

Enjoy your flight, just relax and kick back.

Happy Christmas

[Doors to Automatic]

Winds of 18-20kts forecast - certainly breezy but well within limits. It looks post-frontal as the main weather front is over mainland UK, which means that there should be no problems with visibility. I am assuming you are flying with either Ryanair or Aer Lingus, in which case you will have pilots based in Dublin, and very familiar and experienced with its weather. Either way, absolutely nothing to worry about.

As the previous poster said, order a nice G&T and sit back and relax. Once you are over there have a great Christmas! :ok:

[Hotel Tango]

So Maddie, how was your flight?

[SpringHeeledJack]

…..And be glad it wasn't tonight, or tomorrow, as 'Eva' the latest storm off the Atlantic has winds of up to 120km/h on the west coast and lower gusting winds on the east coast and Dublin according to news reports. Hope that the flight was a pleasant experience last night :ok:


SHJ

[Maddie]

So Maddie, how was your flight?

Hi Hotel Tango, it was quite wet and breezy at Birmingham and we were told we would be flying through cloud for the first 15 minutes, then it would be clear skies all the way.

Well everything was going really well until about 5 minutes after passing Liverpool, when we hit an air stream and had a couple of minutes of quite sharp turbulence. During it, the Captain made an announcement explaining what it was and that we were over the worst and it would only last another couple of minutes then it should be smooth the rest of the way, and it was.

I was initially meant to fly tonight but changed dates due to an appointment connected with my late Mum. I think she must have been looking out for me.

The help I have got from this website over the years helped me keep flying when I had to because of my caring commitments, so thank you one and all and Happy Christmas and New Year.

[S.o.S.]

Thanks for letting us know Maddie, I hope the season is comfortable and the return sector easy.

And a Well Done to the SLF forum for doing the right thing.

[Doors to Automatic]

For anyone who is interested:
METAR EIDW 222200Z 22020KT 9999 FEW020 08/04 Q1000 NOSIG

[Hotel Tango]

Thanks for the update Maddie. I once went through a lengthy phase when I found the thought of flying stressful, so I can sympathise with you. I wish there was a simple solution to allay your fears but I know it's not easy. In my case it was a personal trauma which changed my perspective regarding fear. From that time on I found myself totally relaxed with flying, regardless of weather or turbulence (which used to really spook me). Strange things happen in life.

Have a great Christmas and a smooth return home.

[Maddie]

Hello Hotel Tango, thank you, I thought when my Mum passed, my fear would go but it hasn't. But like her I am a very determined person. I won't give in to it.

I hope you had a nice Christmas, and have a great New Year.

Kind regards,

Maddie