Number of accident reports

[Draco]

I'm fairly new to this forum, and a novice compared to the experience of most Rotorheads.

I am seeing a lot of fatal accident reports appearing on Rotorheads all of a sudden. These aren't just of the "R22 turns over in training cock-up" variety, either. There are some tragic stories and many of you have lost some close friends; my condolences to all those affected. I learn from each one, but there does seem to be a growing number.

Is it just that this is a worldwide forum, with accidents reported from all parts (hence large numbers)? Is it greater than 'normal', whatever that may be?

Are helicopter operations becoming safer, or are people pushing the limits further? Are operators trying to do more, with greater complexity and additional risk?

[ppheli]

... or are we getting better at keeping everyone informed so that we can learn from the sad stories of the past?

The net is excellent at getting information out fast, but we need to be ever more careful how we read the reports from such accidents. The first versions out on the streets are usually the non-aviation media, who have a tendancy to over-dramatise and IMHO draw unsubstantiated conclusions from very thin facts (remember they are in the business of selling copies).

Moderators > Perhaps we should state the source of the information when presenting accident stories so that readers can know how much to rely on them (or at least whether the source is within the aviation industry or not). Some news services such as Rotorhub.com do not run accident stories intentionally because of the possibilities of misinterpretation (and "chinese whispers")

[Heliport]

Draco
Thanks for posting a good question. I hope it produces a good discussion.

ppheli
I usually post the source, sometimes don't if I'm in a hurry.
Rotorhub - that's up to the editor of that site.

I think you can safely assume that Rotorheads regulars, most of whom are either professional pilots or experienced PPLs, are able to judge for themselves what weight to attach to early news reports.
Look (for example) at the 2 recent threads on the Pavehawk crash in Oregon - both outstandingly good discussions with contributions from experienced professional pilots from many parts of the world. Those threads grew from a news item.

News reports (happy and sad) will continue here.

[aspinwing]

Well there could be any number of reasons:

What is your base for a 'normal' number?
- 10 year rolling average?
- rate per 100,000 hours flown?
- those that make the headlines / lead stories?
- did you put sugar in your tea this morning?

Given that most helicopter hours are flown in the northern hemisphere and it is now summer when the flying intensity increases - perhaps not in UK which has few 'resources' based operations - the 'number' of 'reported' incidents can be expected to increase but what about the rate per hours flown.

If this forum is your source, I can think of half a dozen Canadian incidents in the last month - 4 on one fire alone - which haven't surfaced here so your data source if VERY subjective.

:rolleyes:

[widgeon]

Actually this year has been good in the US ( touch wood) .
Referring to the NTSB database
www.ntsb.gov

Number of fatal helicopter accidents per year
1998 44
1999 45
2000 51
2001 40
2002 14

Of course without ref to the number of flight hours the stats do not mean much .

[Nigel Osborn]

Reading and studying statistics in general can be very confusing and often not really reflective of the fact you are trying to prove.
For example, do you know that of all the people that have ever been born, more than half are still alive. Does that mean you have better than a 50% chance of not dying?:D :D

[RotorHorn]

..and the average number of legs for humans is less than two? :eek:

Statistics can be very useful and very misleading all at the same time.

I once read a book entitled "How to lie with Statistics"... says it all really.

[SASless]

Statistics....

The US airlines convinced the FAA that liferafts and lifejackets were not needed for the short time the 727's were going to be overwater while on flights from NYC to MIA and the statistical probability of a simultaneous triple engine failure was nil, etc......

Less than two weeks after the FAA allowed the airlines to remove the rafts and jackets.....a flight engineer managed to flame out all three engines while at the most offshore position on the flight. The crew was able to restart the engines without having to make a forced ditching so I guess the stats were correct.

If you happen to be in the event....does it matter how many events occur each year?