Holiday Market Growth in 2016

[racedo]

Looking at growth in holiday market for 2016 there seems to be a potential swing with a couple of destinations changing completely and older destinations not yet sure what will occur.

Tunisia.................... expected to be well down in 2016 and ignored by most people with a forecast decline.
Egypt ........................ similar with people staying away
Turkey....................... again potentially losing a significant proportion of the 3.5 Million Russians who holidayed there.


Looking at where this demand will get picked up I see Greece, Italy in South, Costa and Islands in Spain and Crimea benefitting.

[Hotel Tango]

I think Blackpool should brace themselves :E

But seriously, I think it might be a little early too early to tell at this point in time. Many may wait to see what develops before booking anywhere.

[EK77WNCL]

Hope it could encourage growth to some new markets, different areas of Spain, Cape Verde, Sicily etc.

With the ME3+Turkish, long haul is becoming more affordable, we could see growth there.

Sharm might suffer, not sure how badly, hopefully Hurghada might escape unscathed

[ATNotts]

Hope it could encourage growth to some new markets, different areas of Spain, Cape Verde, Sicily etc.

With the ME3+Turkish, long haul is becoming more affordable, we could see growth there.

Sharm might suffer, not sure how badly, hopefully Hurghada might escape unscathed

With the general risk averse attitude displayed by many governments, notably the UK, tourists will be running out of places they will be "allowed" to travel to, at least so far as packages are concerned. Turkey may well find itself on the seemingly ever growing list of countries that the UK warns against travel to, especially if their president continues his willy waving antics towards Russia. If that were to happen, and it's a long way off at present, would other "safer" European destinations have the capacity for absorbing the numbers of bucket and spade refugees?

[valefan16]

Cape Verde this summer was full of building work on hotel complex's so that one may have a big future in the next few seasons with UK tourists certainly.


It just needs something more to do out of the complex like water parks maybe as it is very sparse of anything so needs something to attract families a bit more.


I loved it though.

[Bengt]

Spain gained already thie year see link to Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/22/us-spain-tourism-idUSKCN0RM12520150922)

Whether this will continue in 2016 or not is another question.

[racedo]

Spain gained already thie year see link to Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/22/us-spain-tourism-idUSKCN0RM12520150922)

Whether this will continue in 2016 or not is another question.

Personally I think Spain will be the country benifitting most and probably the one that should be bulking up its marketing effort.

No matter where I have been in summer they have been busy but not over flowing so adding an extra million or two across their coast and islands will not get to overflowing.

In addition from a security perspective Spain is used to dealing with Terrorism.

[macdo]

Skegness has potential:zzz:

[stab3.5up]

As does Baltic coast of Poland. Supposed to have sensational summer weather. FAO will do well. In a change way Eliat could become popular again. Still red sea but IsraelBut the bottom line will still be cost for people not security

[EK77WNCL]

Agadir perhaps? Banjul? I think Bulgaria could do well with the lower end (only because I've heard it's a bit "dumpy" and "cheap") but there's a good few resorts. Madeira and perhaps even Porto Santo although I don't know what the tourist infrastructure is there... Azores? Then of course there's the dalmation coast!

Plenty of space within 5/6 hours of the UK to fill up with holidaymakers. My only hope would be that Greece and Cyprus don't suffer out of all of this

[dreamair]

I struggle to understand why Bulgaria isn't more popular with the British. I've been to Sunny Beach twice and the place really should have twinned with Benidorm signs up. Its got everything the British tourist would want and its a lot cheaper than most other places. Yes it might not be the classiest place to visit, but I would of thought it would appeal to your average Benidorm, Magaluf, Faliraki customer.

[rob39]

Blackpool and Skeggy, letter in the post to Mr Miller of PIK. 752 full of bucket/spade could be a goer :ugh:

Spain will gain big this coming year. Croatia is lovely (spent 2 months private work flying around the lovely coast line) but maybe just to close to the troubles.

[ATNotts]

Agadir perhaps? Banjul? I think Bulgaria could do well with the lower end (only because I've heard it's a bit "dumpy" and "cheap") but there's a good few resorts. Madeira and perhaps even Porto Santo although I don't know what the tourist infrastructure is there... Azores? Then of course there's the dalmation coast!

Plenty of space within 5/6 hours of the UK to fill up with holidaymakers. My only hope would be that Greece and Cyprus don't suffer out of all of this

A forgotten destination is Romania - still a destination from central Europe, but largely ignored by Brits. The Black Sea coast there has good beaches, and resorts like Mamaia and Neptun already have the (communist era) tourism infrastructure, that I'm since I was there back in the 1990s has been improved and updated. Problem is that your average Brit wants "Britain abroad" which you won't get, at a stroke, in these less popular destinations.

The Azores, you mentioned, are fantastic, but totally wrong for the bucket and spade brigade. The climate is like Wales, damp and changeable, though warmer (standing by for incoming from Welsh posters!!!) especially in winter. Although we talk about the Azores high pressure area it doesn't seem to do that much for the weather down there. If don't want to laze on the beach all day, then for an active holiday with great scenery and landscapes the archipelago is hard to beat.

It's a question really of whether people, especially at the lower end, are that adventurous.

[AirportPlanner1]

Perhaps there is an opportunity to construct a new beach resort near Castellon, it's time may yet come!

I'm sure there are some retro resorts that may come back in fashion, such as Lloret de Mar.

[GROUNDHOG]

New motorhome sales were up 18% and caravan sales up 22% last year and sales growth this year expected to be even higher if that helps....:=

[racedo]

Perhaps there is an opportunity to construct a new beach resort near Castellon, it's time may yet come!

I'm sure there are some retro resorts that may come back in fashion, such as Lloret de Mar.


Build a huge resort close by with water parks and stuff with some indoor stuff for winter and you never know.

But let it be your money definitely not mine :E

[bentbanana]

Faro should do well - (there were a number of rebookings from Tunisia and Sharm evident in the weeks after the "events") however- the airport is undergoing extensive renovation work which won´t be ready until June 2017 - its a bit of a mess at the moment - how it will fare in the Summer months may be a little stressful.....:sad::{

[LGS6753]

Just to add to the mix, there are moves afoot in Russia to dissuade Russians from visiting Turkey due to the shooting down of the Russian Sukhoi.

Russians are the second largest group of visitors to Turkey (after Germans) so there could be a lot of them displaced too.

Looks like Spain/Canaries, Portugal and Italy are in for a bumper year in 2016. Holidays in Turkey could be cheaper, and I would expect Cyprus (both North and South) to do well.

[Hotel Tango]

New motorhome sales were up 18% and caravan sales up 22% last year and sales growth this year

This might, however, possible be due to the improving economy and previous owners replacing older equipment, not to mention the ever rising number of pensioners.

[GROUNDHOG]

I think you will find non pensioners are allowed to drive motorhomes as well....:):):)

[Jamesair]

With the Russian ban on charter flights to Turkey looks like the resorts will have plenty of space to fill up

[compton3bravo]

There are some lovely beaches and resorts near Castellon already, very Spanish if you know what I mean - Peniscola (El Cid locations) fantastic!

[ATNotts]

There are some lovely beaches and resorts near Castellon already, very Spanish if you know what I mean - Peniscola (El Cid locations) fantastic!

I guess you mean, real Spanish food, real Spanish bars, and real Spanish people - not a British or German pub / bar restaurant in sight.

If so, great, when can I come!

[compton3bravo]

Exactly, then you will get proper Spanish prices as we did recently in Lerma (near Burgos in the north), glass of wine (large) and a beer 1 Euro each in a Hotel! Of course expect to pay a bit more near the coast as long as you are well away from the places the North Europeans frequent.

[LGWAlan]

And not all caravanners are pensioners either.

[Pain in the R's]

Who in their right mind would take a holiday to one of the traditional Muslim countries that the British have frequented for years. This rules out the North African Mediterranean coast, Egypt and even Turkey for most people. Even the Greek Islands which are now also awash with economic migrants would put me off from going there, not for the risk but they all make the Islands look so untidy.

[racedo]

Who in their right mind would take a holiday to one of the traditional Muslim countries that the British have frequented for years. This rules out the North African Mediterranean coast, Egypt and even Turkey for most people. Even the Greek Islands which are now also awash with economic migrants would put me off from going there, not for the risk but they all make the Islands look so untidy.


Guess that leaves Bradford and Blackburn out as well...............

[EK77WNCL]

Probably most of the costas too!

[JanetFlight]

Hi all...and please Mods feel free to change this thread to another field if you think convenient, however i think its of great importance.

For many years lots of airports in Turkey and Egypt, and specially that big mecca of spotters&aviation-lovers such as Antalya, (wich for consecutive years was awarded as the 30th busiest airport in the world), were too much depending and relying on Russian Tourism.
Gone are now the days when we could spot side by side on the sunny Antalyan tarmac lots of 747s, 777s, 767's, 330, etc, of now extinct Transaero, and others such as Nordwind, Orenair, Ifly, etc,etc....
However things changed rapidly and drastically. Antalya did a lot of investments and upgrades, without foreseeing what future could bring:

1) The great russian economic crisis
2) The Ucranian/Crimeia war
3) The demise of giant Transaero
4) and now the worst one IMHO, the total prohibition (as decided by Mr. Putin) of any Charter flights between both countries after the Sukhoi incident.

Having in mind that also lots of charter russian airlines grew up based on Turkey holidaymakers, what could be the destination of such airlines, and also of such summer big hubs in the likes of Antalya??
Your opinions please...Tks.

[G-CPTN]

So, maybe Putin has just shot his charter airline industry in the head?

[ExDubai]

Having in mind that also lots of charter russian airlines grew up based on Turkey holidaymakers, what could be the destination of such airlines, and also of such summer big hubs in the likes of Antalya??

the crimean peninsula might be the new destination for such airlines. Another destination might be Thailand.

[Lonewolf_50]

Having in mind that also lots of charter russian airlines grew up based on Turkey holidaymakers, what could be the destination of such airlines, and also of such summer big hubs in the likes of Antalya??

Your opinions please...Tks.

This embargo may not be permanent. Terms or some sort of accord with the Turkish neighbors may be in Russia's interest within the near to mid term.

The last card hasn't been played, not by a long shot.

[Chronus]

All leading tour operators have suspended the sale of tours to Turkey. It remains to be seen whether the chill winds blowing across Turkey from Siberia will last into the Summer heat of the Turkish Med. However in the event that the conflict in Syria escalates it may have a severe impact on the travel industry as a whole. This will not affect just tour operators, hotel owners, kebab shops, belly dancers and rug and carpet peddlers, but it may also affect air crew jobs.

[Rwy in Sight]

So, maybe Putin has just shot his charter airline industry in the head?

Charter planes have engines and can move around. Hotels and resorts in general do not.

[racedo]

http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/571070-holiday-market-growth-2016-a.html

OP this was the reason for starting this thread and better there than R&N.

[IcePack]

Another nail. Just aired on TV. Probability of a Bomb in Istanbul !

[rog747]

well the balloon goes up in 12 hours if we start to bomb Syria so frankly my guess is that anywhere Brits go on holiday will be a target for Isis and that will include Spain Turkey etc
would not surprise me if Turkey will be next imho

any complacency by any EU country over keeping all citizens safe will be seen as a weakness and exploited - for me I am not going anywhere too far right now - perhaps Cape Verde or Caribbean is safest bet

sorry to be doom and gloom but Sharm was waiting to happen (assumes the metrojet was 100% a bomb) and I am surprised we are still flying charters to HRG but i guess because it is way south of insurgents in Sinai it is somewhat safer...maybe

having worked much in the charter airline industry since 1972 these times for operators are unprecedented - thankfully I am retired now

[ATNotts]

well the balloon goes up in 12 hours if we start to bomb Syria so frankly my guess is that anywhere Brits go on holiday will be a target for Isis and that will include Spain Turkey etc
would not surprise me if Turkey will be next imho

any complacency by any EU country over keeping all citizens safe will be seen as a weakness and exploited - for me I am not going anywhere too far right now - perhaps Cape Verde or Caribbean is safest bet

sorry to be doom and gloom but Sharm was waiting to happen (assumes the metrojet was 100% a bomb) and I am surprised we are still flying charters to HRG but i guess because it is way south of insurgents in Sinai it is somewhat safer...maybe

having worked much in the charter airline industry since 1972 these times for operators are unprecedented - thankfully I am retired now

To be honest, as we've been lobbing bombs at IS in Iraq for a while now, I don't think the risk factor will rise that much as a result of a bit more willy waving in Syria.

That said, I agree with you regarding Turkey, and unless the UK government, and the public, are going to regain the British stoicism and stiff upper lip, I can see the list of places which HMG recommends we don't travel to growing.

Personally, I wouldn't think twice about travelling to Tunisia at the moment, probably also Sharm el Sheik and I think that we need to be left to make up our own minds, making our own risk assessments. We have to remember that thousands of tourists continue to visit both destinations I have highlighted, and following terrorist attacks, it is in the interests of all tourism reliant countries to ensure overseas visitors are safe and they will therefore be closing the proverbial stable door since the horses bolted.

Strangely, Turkey is one country I'd be more worried about travelling to, given it's stance in the conflict with factions in Syria, and it's borders with Syria which at least up till now leak like the proverbial seive.

[LTNman]

well the balloon goes up in 12 hours if we start to bomb Syria so frankly my guess is that anywhere Brits go on holiday will be a target for Isis and that will include Spain Turkey etc

and or course we would all be safe if we left Syria alone.

I had two sets of friends in Sharm two weeks before the aircraft bombing and even then thought it would be the next place to be attacked but with UK based Muslims including a doctor trying to bomb Glasgow airport's terminal with a car bomb 8 years ago no where is safe and Syria then was at peace. It was revealed later that five of those arrested were qualified doctors.

Not all Muslims are terrorists but all terrorists appear to be Muslim which makes the world a dangerous place with Europe getting more dangerous by the day as millions more head this way due to their failed religion.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Antalya did a lot of investments and upgrades, without foreseeing what future could bring:

I actually passed through Antalya just yesterday as SLF on an AYT-MAN sector. Shortly after entering T2 International, we were subjected to the customary full security check. Belts off, pockets emptied, electronic equipment in trays, walk through the x-ray arch. Suitcases bound for the hold x-rayed too. Following check-in, up the escalator to the departures level and ... deep joy ... complete the exercise for a second time. Would've left that darned belt off if I'd realised! Finally, at the gate, more joy. All electronic devices to be removed from luggage with a requirement to show that they can be switched on ... don't fly through AYT with a depleted IPAD or camera battery!

So that was THREE thorough security checks. I can understand the need to 'put on a show', but ONE comprehensive check works fine for me. Unless they think that their own earlier security searches weren't up to the task!

Resort infrastructure in and around the Antalya region is excellent and the city itself has been very sensitively developed since my last visit. Lovely environment for a holiday (outside the mid-summer heatwave in my case). Locals generally friendly ... none of that hostility I have experienced in some North African countries even before the escalations of recent years. The hotel complex I visited was very attractive, though probably helped that it was done-up for the G20 crowd who visited just one week earlier. Risk levels around the city and resorts felt no higher than those at a high-profile UK shopping centre or Christmas Market.

I would happily re-book to visit AYT again. However, the problem with all resorts operating under the shadow of a perceived terrorist threat is that those charter flights are only viable if they attract a near-full load ... a partially-filled flight transporting the brave and intrepid only won't be sustainable financially. Tour operators won't run them if they don't sell well. I hope that Turkey can sidestep this threat, but I did note that eight customers booked on our trip had forfeited paid-for holidays and remained in the UK because of their security fears. That can't be a good sign going forward.

Terms or some sort of accord with the Turkish neighbors may be in Russia's interest within the near to mid term.

This is an excellent point. There is a significant element of mutual dependence. The Russian Black Sea Fleet based at Sevastopol (along with general cargo, tankers etc) must transit the Bosphorus, Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles en route to the Mediterranean (and the West) or Suez (and the South). Turkey can make economic life uncomfortable for Russia too (at an already difficult time) if the diplomatic stand-off persists. Turkey is not powerless, and it is a member of NATO too. And both countries played an active role in the events leading up to the Sukhoi incident. The sooner they sit down, talk, learn the lessons and move on, the better for everybody. Last I heard in Turkey, Putin was refusing to accept phonecalls from Erdogan.

EDIT - Forgot to add: Antalya is host city of EXPO 2016. Preparations well underway.

[harbour cotter]

Ltnman,

Whilst it is appropriate to discuss the effects of terrorism on tourism, your offensive and inaccurate comments just indicates islamophobia. No, I am not islamic, nor from the middle east, or even know anyone from the region. (I am ex-Forces). How much do you know, or care, about the terrorism which still takes place in Northern Ireland for example? I have a slight feeling, although I stand to be corrected, that the offenders were not Islamic. More people die in the UK through the use of guns by thugs in our cities each year than through terrorism, albeit on a smaller scale that the U.S.

Please refrain from objectionable, unneccessary and inaccurate comments. Thank you.