Joyce at the National Press Club.

[LeadSled]

Folks,
I an surprised nobody so far has commented on the little Irishman's recent speech at the National Press Club.
Of particular note, in response to a more erudite than usual question, was a reply about Qantas' interest in the new B777X, in the context of New York to Australia direct, and other ultra long range operations, such as Australia direct into Europe.
The A350- did not rate a mention.
Straws in the wind??
Tootle pip!!

[C441]

If you're really keen you can watch it here (http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/national-press-club-address/NC1506C037S00) or on Iview.

[Ollie Onion]

An FO I was flying with recently reckoned that he had been told that the 777-X was going to be ordered and that the A380 would be out of the fleet by 2021. He has a mate in the know apparently :}

[CurtainTwitcher]

The TSV refuser reckons that almost every A380 sector is a loss maker, the worst aircraft decision Qantas has ever made. Sure the punters love it, but it's killing the accountants.

He also says that most of these things mentioned in the Press Club talk have been quite well telegraphed "inside" the tent for quite some time, hence the lack of comments. Not really a surprise to many.

[4Greens]

Essentially you dont need four engines any more and they cost more to operate than two unless you get a full load on a 380.

[dragon man]

Agree with all above , however I didn't think any 777Xs were available till at least 2022 because of the huge Emerates initial,order and secondly what do they do with the 380? It would be lucky to be half way thru its airframe life I would think plus I don't think there is any second hand market for them. Y class loads to Lax have dropped quite dramatically I guess due to the $AUS , this must be creating a problem as there ain't enough 747s about to allow for substitutions.

[Stanwell]

Just by the bye, I was chatting with a senior rampy and an airframe ginger-beer the other night and it seemed
that neither of them were impressed with the 380. Quite the opposite.

So, in between them and the bean-counters, is there anybody (pax aside) happy with the great-white-whale?

[Capn Bloggs]

What a ridiculous concept. Providing a product the customers like. Somebody needs their head read.

[haughtney1]

I agree Bloggsy, however I wonder how many would feel the love if they had to pay a price to make the whale profitable. Even my lot who operate the lions share of the beast concede in private at least that it at best covers costs, and at worst is a "loss leader"
Personally in Y it's great, but in J or F, I can't tell the difference or other types are a bit better.

[hotnhigh]

Does anyone recall if during Joyce's rein as CEO if he has actually placed an order for any new aircraft?
From memory all 380,330, 787 and the last of the 737s orders or options were dealt with by Dixon.
Also has there be any pilots join the Qantas seniority list during his time in the seat?
And I wonder why with all the hand clapping propaganda a review of Qantas revenues domestically and internationally only show a stagnant result. Indeed year on year for domestic has gone backwards!
And peddling back through the last 10 years reveals only small revenue growth in comparative terms.
The worlds best airline CEO?

[Keg]

He placed a massive order for A320s for Jetstar. Does that count? :ok:

Joyce became CEO in late 2008. The last pilots to join mainline were January 2009.

Notice how the 777X gets mentioned in a few different speeches in recent times? The A350 doesn't get mentioned in the same breath normally. The A350 isn't a 744 replacement and neither is the 787 despite what a media release from qantas may say.

I reckon they're looking very seriously at the 777X to replace the final 6-9ish 744s in the fleet from about 2022. They'll delay the decision and announcement as late as possible given the sensibilities the Australian market has to spending money and that they still need to announce the additional 787s that I'm confident they'll get. i suspect though that they'll be in talks with Boeing about the best way to go about this.

The cat amongst the pigeons is the deposit for 8 A380s that we long ago deferred. Convert them to A350s for J* and make them all Airbus whilst transferring 788s to mainline? Extra A320s for mainline to replace 738s delivered from early 2002?

The IR stuff is there to show the shareholders that he hasn't backed off on the IR front. All the EAs are wrapped up for the next few years so there is bugger all imperative with that at the moment.

Remember these guys love their 'narrative'. Expect the narrative to be positive for a few years yet- probably until the EAs start to expire! :} :E

[Berealgetreal]

I've bagged him, we all have. It's now time to say: game, set, match Alan Joyce.

From where the QF group was 5 years ago to now it's a pretty impressive effort.

[blow.n.gasket]

"From where the QF group was 5 years ago to now it's a pretty impressive effort.'


Yeah! pretty impressive job in trashing a Cash Cow and trying to scratch build what looks more and more like a Dog ,or at best a Question Mark.
It would appear the Amazing Business will never become a Star.
Looks like the Boston Consulting gurus got it wrong again.
Long live Bain & Co!
Wonder what tripe they'll come up with?.
Why do Qantas pay so much for senior Management if all the decisions and strategy are sub-contracted out?
Joyce and the Board are a waste of money ,if you ask me.
Todd Sampson might be onto something!

[busdriver007]

Berealgetreal
I am afraid Qantas has not transformed. It has old aircraft burning 11 tonnes an hour when he should have replaced them years ago. In the year 2013/14 the business had $2.2 billion written off it(that is shareholder value) and made an operating loss of over $600 million when it should have written the jumbos off in 2005. It is like paying your mortgage interest two years in advance and then not paying cent for two years. Of course the cash flow is magnificent, the problem is you still have a mortgage! Alan Joyce and Leigh Clifford will announce their retirement over the next twelve months and take another king's ransom in bonuses and leave. The problem is the next CEO will have to undo all the mess that has been created over AJs reign and he or she has to replace an ageing fleet worth next to nothing. As Clifford did when he left Rio he left the business in very poor shape and he will do the same with Qantas. Hotnhigh is correct during Joyce's time revenue has shrunk with 40% more aircraft in the Qantas group. Joyce will run around the Globe saying how clever he is but we all know the TRUTH! Air New Zealand has been transformed to a new and fuel efficient fleet but Qantas has still to do the hard yards. As for Jetstar I think a new CEO will or should see it for what it is, a Parasite! Time will tell!

[onetrack]

Nobody has mentioned that a massive drop in fuel prices is bound to have a major beneficial effect on the bottom line.
Of course, that major fuel price drop can always be ignored, while you talk up your own stunning achievements at turning around a loss-making operation. :suspect:

[The Bullwinkle]

busdriver007
Best post I've read on PPRUNE in a long time!

[Iron Bar]

Clifford will be gone after the AGM. Joyce ain't goin nowhere.

[Flying Trades Person]

Busdriver Well Said about Joyce and Co

[C441]

Clifford will be gone after the AGM.
Not if he has anything to do with it…..

From this article in the AFR (http://www.afr.com/business/transport/aviation/trip-of-a-lifetime-qantas-chairman-leigh-clifford-charts-carriers-turnaround-20151015-gkahzs#ixzz3p4hmVgNF) less than a week ago:

At age 68, it would be understandable if Clifford, a self-described "struggling golfer and struggling cyclist" in his spare time, decided it was time for a valedictory lap. Yet he has put himself up for re-election for a three-year board term at Qantas, which will celebrate its 95th birthday with a black-tie gala next month.

[The Green Goblin]

When you're LC's age in semi retirement it'd be hard to let go of the pocket money and travel perks being involved with a national airline.

[FFRATS]

Agreed GG, Clifford is getting a great deal on his side of the fence....why stop now.!
On a LA trip a few years back I stood at the exit to the flight deck at the First class exit to say goodby to the Pax and he was waiting for the door to open. He was on a 'work trip' to NY that QF was lucky to have 330's on at the time.

He was Rude Bastard outright and I have no respect for him at all..no small chat or introduction to me in his position. Not even a token thanks for the flight etc.

FFRATS.

[c100driver]

In the news today that SQ has signed today to be the launch customer for the A350-900ULR with 9 ordered to be in the fleet of 67 A350.

They said that they are responding to customer demand for the Singapore to New York to be reinstated.

The press statement didn't state the range of it but said that it has in excess of 19 hours with the 250 ish seat layout planned. I don't recall the SIN NY distance but 8900 NM seems to ring a bell.

Looks like it may have the legs for the route some are suggesting that QF want to try for?

[Iron Bar]

Interesting article, we could be stuck with the nasty old git for a while yet. My mail is that he doesn't share the same support as Joyce with the owners. Especially in the enlightened era of more constructive and less combative industrial relations.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Essentially you dont need four engines any more and they cost more to operate than two unless you get a full load on a 380.

I laugh at this stupid argument for not getting the 380.

Clearly any aircraft is better to operate if it's full. What not get more 330s than a 777. After all a 330 is cheaper to operate than a 777.

That's the difference between quaintarse and EK - they actually plan to get full loads. All the oz flights - full. All the lhr flights - full.

Haughteys comments are unfounded as he is not privy to financials - he is just a 777 pilot.

Quaintarse strives for mediocrity. Like having senior pilots happy to stay as second officers for the lifestyle instead of striving for command.