FCO advice: Rewarding terrorism

[ShotOne]

The system of FCO "advice" to travel, or not, to specific destinations places a powerful lever in the hands of every murderous terror organisation. A relatively simple, low-cost operation in Tunisia has been rewarded by granting their wishes in entirety and deprived their enemies, the Tunisian govt of most of their income. Job done! The issue is, this "advice" in not advice at all; for a holiday company it is a legal imperative. While I can't blame any civil servant for being risk-averse, we must examine this system. It provides a warped incentive to murder British citizens and will increase our risk while abroad.

[Basil]

I have no difficulty saying that I would not take my family to a place where murdering religious terrorists can walk up and kill them. I don't need British Government advice to work that out.

Before the pedants roll up I refer, of course, to other than my own country.

[Mr C Hinecap]

I take it that you've had a holiday cancelled and now you've got the hump?

Where do you see the responsibility of the UKFO sitting? Is it with the Tunisian government or is it perhaps looking at the potential safety of UK citizens abroad? I have no particular issue with how it works and I can't see an alternative that would not likely increase risk for UK citizens.

[NutLoose]

One man on a beach has held a Country to ransom, he has more or less single handedly destroyed their main industry and has resulted in a knee jerk reaction that has seen several Countries pulling their people out of the said Country, ONE MAN!

There is risk aversion and there is risk aversion, but there is nothing to stop a similar attack being carried out at any other holiday destination abroad, infact the same thing could be said about the UK. Indeed with the increased security in place in Tunisia one does wonder if a softer target elsewhere would then become their aim.

When terrorists hijacked the first ever aircraft even they didn't believe it would work, but the UK capitulated and released several prisoners proving to the terrorist that hijacking was a viable weapon and opening the floodgates to such actions, one does wonder if we have just repeated history.

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[Chugalug2]

Interesting view ShotOne. Are you going to take your family on holiday to Tunisia in solidarity with its people, and in defiance of FO advice? I can but admire such a selfless moral stance.

I, in contrast, am motivated by the most base desires of self preservation and of the safety of my loved ones, and give thanks that at long last HM Government Policy seems to place the safety of its citizens above its wish not to offend other countries. You know, like most other western governments do...

[VinRouge]

Perhaps if the Tunisian government put in enough security to prevent a major terrorist attack in the first place, they wouldn't now be having a significant proportion of their GDP pulled.

Middle East would be the last place any sensible person should be going on holiday with the state of the place, especially as the only vulnerable point we seem to have is to this sort of thing.

Nut loose, naive to assume this is just as likely in other places.

[Wander00]

NL/Shot One -difficult, I am with you, in principle. I guess the risk of an attack in UK is broadly similar, but I am not putting of my UK trip. This one guy, with maybe a handful of accomplices, has brought Tunisia's principal industry to a standstill. As you say "job done" - but "the west" has pulled its nationals out so has an implicit responsibility to help Tunisia whilst issues are resolved. I have less sympathy for the mainly economic migrants trying to get to Europe and ultimately the UK, some of whom I have no doubt have a hidden terrorist agenda. However, in the short term, I suspect the Government had no alternative but to issue the advice it did.

[Whenurhappy]

One man on a beach has held a Country to ransom

Only one man? Gosh, you've got better intelligence than SIA and FCO combined.

58 tourists have been killed in Tunisia since March this year. Fact.

Tunisia is a post-revolutionary state with indefensible borders and a security apparatus that is trying hard, but by almost any measure you care to choose, is incapable of controlling the situation.

I can assure you that changes to travel advice issued by the FCO are not taken lightly. It is a cross-departmental decision; I have been fortunate to witness the decision-making process fairly recently.

In a theoretical example, the impact of adverse travel advice on the local economy is considered (along with the wider and longer-term security implications). The reputation of UK plc is regarded; DIME responses are gamed.

However, the bottom line is, that apart from a handful of persons entitled to UK protection who live there, overwhelmingly British interest in Tunisia is discretionary - ie, a cheap all-inclusive holiday in the sun. Should more UK subjects be exposed to danger - including the Consular Response Teams, and,potentially, service personnel, so that old slappers can have a fling with a Tunisian barman and overweight middle-aged men can top up their melanomas?

It's not as if Whitehall has decided to surrender a piece of UK territory to marauding gangs of IŞID-inspired gunmen.

Latest just in. Skegness OOB?

Fears as family of 14 travels to Butlins (http://newsthump.com/2015/07/10/fears-as-family-of-14-travels-to-butlins/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork)

[Wander00]

Love it! Brilliant

[Wrathmonk]

And the relevance for this in the Military Aircrew forum is.....?

Unless the terrorists are going to offer BBQ tips then this thread should be in JB.:ok:

[ShotOne]

You tell 'em, wm. I'm sure they'll make you a mod if you ask nicely.

I'm aware this advice isn't given lightly. Had I been at their desk with the rules as they stand I'd probably have done the same. The issue is, it's not "advice" at all. For a holiday company it is an imperative legal directive. The terrorists now know this and they can achieve a specific political objective as a direct result of murdering Britons. That's a hefty lever to place in their hands

[Wrathmonk]

No interest in being a mod thanks very much.

Thread still has cock all to do with military aviation. A rant about FCO policy and how it can be used against them - irrelevant to this board and unlikely to garner a broad spectrum of responses or discussion tucked away here.

[Melchett01]

Wrathmonk,

Or you could just view this forum as a virtual crew room. In all the crewrooms I've ever been in the conversation covered a fairly broad spectrum of topics, and certainly not limited to flying or aircraft to the exclusion of all else. That would make for a pretty dull crew room if you couldn't talk about world affairs, how Bloggs got blown out by the pretty young SAC in the pub the night before and Smith's new penis extension of a sports car. You know, general chat about the world and the daily ebb and flow of life that characterizes adult and not so adult conversation. That's how I prefer to view this forum.

But if you insist on making the linkage between this thread and mil avn: we're currently flying ops against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. We've already been to Libya once before and now there are reports in the press that the gunman might have been trained in Libya. It doesn't take a great leap of imagination that might suggest that as the SoS is already trying to make the case for increasing air ops in Syria, that in time, we might well find ourselves back in North Africa conducting counter ISIL ops in our own backyard and in theory this could be the start of that chain of events.

[Two's in]

Even the most basic of threat assessments based on the disposition of likely threats (think Libya, proximity and porous borders) and "friendly" forces would have you travelling to Tunisia in nothing less than a Battle Group formation.

This is a classic example of "reverse Nanny State", where suddenly the Government is responsible for your personal life choices. The day I start getting intelligence updates from Thomas Cook is the day I start booking package holidays through the Foreign Office.

[Shackman]

I may be missing something here; we are advising all tourists to leave Tunisia because the security threat in that country is assessed as SEVERE (ie a terrorist attack is highly likely). They are coming home to the UK - where the security threat is also assessed as SEVERE.

Maybe we should be evacuating the UK as well now!

[Wrathmonk]

Or you could just view this forum as a virtual crew room.

Awesome. Anything goes then if some of the conversations I've had (or witnessed) in crew rooms over the years are anything to go by!

Be better than Jet Blast where 'hotel lobby' rules apply.:D

[Blue Bottle]

2nd Tunisia terror attack foiled as 5 ISIS extremists shot dead | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3157237/Second-terror-attack-British-tourists-Tunisia-foiled-Five-Islamic-extremists-shot-dead-thousands-holidaymakers-evacuated.html)

[Whenurhappy]

And the relevance for this in the Military Aircrew forum is.....?

C-17s and the RAF Regiment are on standby to assist with a NEO. I think that's relevant.

[Melchett01]

The day I start getting intelligence updates from Thomas Cook is the day I start booking package holidays through the Foreign Office.

I think I have had experience of both those over the years :ok:

[The Old Fat One]

but there is nothing to stop a similar attack being carried out at any other holiday destination abroad, infact the same thing could be said about the UK

This is simply not true...in fact it is not even close to being true.

Tunisia has porous borders with a continuous supply religious nut jobs able to come and go as they wish. Many holiday destinations, home and abroad, are demonstrably more secure.

Many nations, including ours, have effective control of automatic weapons. There is no huge cache of Kalashinkovs lying around for any tom, dick of harry to go on a shooting spree.

Many countries, ours included have multi layered security regimes in place, to deter, detect and interrupt terrorists as they go about their business.

I could go on but I hope my point is made. If you are saying there is an ever present terrorist threat to all of us, I totally agree. If you are saying that threat is a constant in all locations, I totally disagree.

The Foreign Office response is a no brainer - they have a job to do and that is protect us. I don't totally agree this is long term win for the nutters out there. That's now down to the Tunisian security forces (as it should be). Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war I'd suggest. Few of the other security forces in the region might want to pitch in as well. Time for some unrestrained violence I think; let the nutters reap what they have sown.

Personally, given this is a military forum and this is war as we do it these days, I really cannot see how this is irrelevant here.

[Whenurhappy]

TOFO - couldn't agree more. What's more disturbing is the naivety of the holiday-makers:

'Lovely people here, I feel really safe in my hotel'
'It's more dangerous in England'
'Tunisia is a beautiful country, and they are lovely people there and the hospitality is exceptional.
'We were saying to each other that there is probably more of a chance of a terror attack at Manchester airport than here now.
'There are Army trucks and police everywhere in Sousse. We have felt completely safe.'

Of course you were, dear.

[Wrathmonk]

C-17s and the RAF Regiment are on standby to assist with a NEO. I think that's relevant.

Perhaps so. But I'm not sure that's in the public domain is it - nothing like handing the target set to ISIS (as often been posted on here when people discuss kinetic operations)! Don't forget to post the time they get airborne from BZN to show your "are in the know"! Nothing in the popular press about NEO planning (perhaps because they were told to STFU) and they would be all over any int like that in a flash! Anyway, that 'snippet' wasn't mentioned in the OP. The OP was a rant about the FCO. It's all about context - like when BEags posts the BZN actual when posting in the BBQ thread;)

So, as we have FE on standby to conduct all sorts of activities pretty much across the world (granted, at various stages of readiness) then not only does this forum become a 'virtual crewroom' it appears that it is PJHQs 'virtual crewroom'. :D

[Whenurhappy]

Apart from being reported on the BBC and Telegraph...(granted, not in the Daily Mail)

The Tunisian terrorists better get a move on to get to BZN before the journos

[ShotOne]

Not exactly, wrathmonk. The OP was a rant at the System the FCO is required to work to in this context and the power it hands to our enemies. Not because I necessarily disagree with their Tunisia assessment right now. Such advice is almost always a stable door/bolted horse situation. But the real issue is the highly-publicised link between the murder of British citizens and our govt doing something the terrorists want.

[Wrathmonk]

Whenurhappy

Apart from being reported on the BBC and Telegraph

I'll have to take your word for it - my Google-foo skills are poor and I still can't find any mention of it. I withdraw my veiled Beadwindow call! ;)

ShotOne

I don't disagree with your OP - just think it would have been better placed in a more 'open' board (perhaps even into the SLF and R&N boards?) to get a more "balanced" view.:ok:

[ValMORNA]

The FCO are in a 'no-win' situation here, damned if they do and damned if they don't. "You've spoilt my holiday and I spent all my benefits on it," or "Another 50 holiday-makers killed in a terrorist attack in xxxxx; why didn't you warn us or stop us from going?"

[Wander00]

Sorry, "NEO" decodes as....?

[Wrathmonk]

"NEO" decodes as....

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jdp-3-51-non-combatant-evacuation-operations

[Martin the Martian]

Look, call me naive or ignorant, but does anyone honestly think that Brize Norton would NOT be on standby to provide airlift capabilities? As soon as Hammond made the announcement it was blatantly obvious that the phone would be ringing in Oxfordshire, public domain or not.

If you want flight times, just google the airport that the civvie flights are using; it's very helpful about such things, and I'm sure that IS can use a search engine as well. So can we drop the pompous tone that one or two posts have taken on please?

And if anyone thinks that a similar event could not happen here in the UK, there are some short memories around. Or have some people forgotten what happened at Woolwich Barracks just over two years ago?

[Wander00]

WM - silly me - many thanks

[Whenurhappy]

Has anyone actually read the FCO travel advice?

Since the attack in Sousse, we have been working closely with the Tunisian authorities to investigate the attack and the wider threat from terrorist groups in Tunisia. Although we have had good co-operation from the Tunisian government, including putting in place additional security measures, the intelligence and threat picture has developed considerably, reinforcing our view that a further terrorist attack is highly likely. On balance, we do not believe the mitigation measures in place provide adequate protection for British tourists in Tunisia at the present time and we have therefore changed our travel advice accordingly.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to:

the Chaambi Mountain National Park area
the Tunisia-Algeria border crossing points at Ghardimaou, Hazoua and Sakiet Sidi Youssef
the militarized zone south of, but not including, the towns of El Borma and Dhehiba
within 5km of the Libya border area from north of Dhehiba up to but not including the Ras Ajdir border crossing
The FCO advise against all but essential travel to the rest of Tunisia.

If you’re in Tunisia and you don’t have an essential need to remain you should leave by commercial means. Tour operators are arranging additional flights and will be organising departures for their customers. If you’re travelling with a tour operator, you should contact your tour operator’s representative in the first instance.

If you’re travelling independently, you should make your own arrangements to leave. Commercial airlines are operating. If you need consular assistance (above and beyond travel information) you should contact the British Embassy in Tunis.

[Whenurhappy]

And if anyone thinks that a similar event could not happen here in the UK, there are some short memories around. Or have some people forgotten what happened at Woolwich Barracks just over two years ago?

Since the attack in Woolwich, we have been working closely with the London authorities to investigate the attack and the wider threat from terrorist groups in Britain. Although we have had good co-operation from the British government, including putting in place additional security measures, the intelligence and threat picture has developed considerably, reinforcing our view that a further terrorist attack is highly likely. On balance, we do not believe the mitigation measures in place provide adequate protection for tourists in Britain at the present time and we have therefore changed our travel advice accordingly.

No, The UK (and the FCO in particular) has not surrendered to the terrorists. Until we get similar messages as I have parodied above, it is 'business as usual'.

I get back to my earlier point: why risk lives and resources so that people can go about a discretionary activity - against all advice that is Holy - in a country next to Libya?

[Heathrow Harry]

because they are grown-ups and can take their own decisions?

and suffer any consequences of course...................

[NutLoose]

They may be able to make their own decisions, however, once the warning was issued, the travel operators would have to pull there punters out as they would be opening themselves up to being sued if they didn't, regardless of whether the punters wanted to leave or not.



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[Pontius Navigator]

On reflection I recall that I travelled against advice. I don't know it it was that of CBF Cyprus or FCO, but our TA rebooked Egyptian tour to Turkey. We told him to Redbook Egypt.

For £100 each we had a fully escorted tour and saw all the usual tourist sites with the addition of SAM sites, flak batteries, AD radars, torpedo nets, and a superb tactical operation by 4-ship of Fishbed minimising on the ground vulnerability. Our Coke even demonstrated this too with approx 90 kts down the taxy way and the nose wheel off before the marshalling point.

This was 5 months before the Yom Kippur war.

[Pontius Navigator]

Nutloose and the FCO advice is also crucial for travel insurance aspects. Until the FCO issues that advice then you can't get refund if you cancel. If you travel afterwards then the insurance company will not cover you.

[The Old Fat One]

shot one, I don't disagree with your point either - but it does not change the inevitability, common sense and correctness of the FO position.

[ShotOne]

Let's take a step back back, Tofu; Its not about the correctness or otherwise of the Tunisia decision, it's the system. ".grown ups...can take their own decisions" No they can't, and that's the point, HH. FCO "advice" isn't advice in any real sense. It's a command to evacuate. Now we've taught IS how easy it is, how many have consequently been placed at risk in Egypt or Turkey when they repeat the process?

[Pontius Navigator]

Shotone, FCO advice is not new. There is FCO advice for many countries. For instance should you fancy fly fishing in the Yemen - don't.

[skydiver69]

The FCO tends to play it safe when it comes to travel advice as it goes for the lowest common denominator. Their current advice for Iran is not to go there even though it probably one of the safest places in the region albeit without access to an Embassy if things went tits up in any way. The advice had put me off visiting for a number of years to see family, but I went last year and had no problems although it was always at the back of my mind that I had no travel insurance. The FCO advice for Iran is however based on different threats than that of Tunisia and whilst I was happy to go to Tehran and wouldn't be to confident about a trip to Tunis.

[airsound]

Bit surprised to see that no one has mentioned the Tunisian part in this.

Tunis was the originating state of the so-called 'Arab Spring', about which the West was so enthusiastic. It was also the only Arab Spring state to have maintained the democracy that its revolution spawned.

Rather than offering knee-jerk reactions that effectively destroy Tunisia's main industry, shouldn't we be trying to support the Tunisians?

I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't warn of the dangers - but surely we shouldn't be making it mandatory to avoid the place? And in so doing, offering ISIL, and its like, a substantial propaganda victory

airsound