Weather Avoidance in Bizarro-world

[Captain Dart]

Copied from the R & N forum. 747 probably a write-off.

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/563718-delta-747-400-takes-beating-over-china.html

[RHEINHARD]

Just got to face it. PRC airspace is just one giant rolling goatf@ck of an accident waiting to happen. I see it often enough to feel nothing but empathy and amazement at the fortitude demonstrated by our KA colleagues. The only place to see China from is 10700 metres and that is 6000 ft too low.

[oriental flyer]

If they won't give you a deviation turn around go back or divert to another port
Dump fuel if necessary and let the company sort it out with China ATC
If a few aircraft did that things might well change .

[RHEINHARD]

Things won't change. And you need permission from these retards to dump fuel. Let alone avoid wx !

[Trafalgar]

Declare a Pan or Mayday, take up a heading. End of problem. Let CX, the Chinese and ICAO sort it out after that.

[Algol]

You might get shot down. Or forced down. Then slapped in irons and dragged off to a Chinese slammer!

[bm330]

Second that.

Very lucky it didn't turn into another AirAsia. Airplanes and CB's do not mix. The result this time was a best case scenerio - they survived.

[cannot]

Well it would appear that the aeroplane didn't and the jumbo is a lot stronger than the newer aircraft of today

[Algol]

CR I agree that avoiding the WX is better than crashing. But how do you know it's unlikely you'll be intercepted, or what the consequences might be?
Are you saying they're just incompetent, or less trigger happy than say - the Russians at Sakhalin?
Global events might well play a major role in how trigger happy they are on any particular day - especially along the Taiwan corridor, or around the islands they've grabbed. Time will tell.

[mngmt mole]

The Chinese are not going to shoot down a regularly scheduled CX flight on a main airway. Good grief. As Trafalgar said, ask for a deviation, twice, politely, then declare a pan and TELL them what heading you are turning on to. Show some balls people. Are you just going to fly straight into a red painting CB ?

[Algol]

Eh, no.
But I also won't be too flippant about the alternatives.

[mngmt mole]

Who's being flippant? What other sensible choice is there? You need to divert for weather. Either you do, and avoid a verifiable dangerous situation, or you don't and trade not upsetting the Chinese for a potential danger to the aircraft and your passengers. Not really that difficult to make the decision is it? Again, what are they going to do, shoot you down? That will look good on the BBC won't it. It's about time that the worlds airlines start demanding some common sense from the Chinese authorities. Look at the photos of that 747 again, and then tell me that you won't divert around wx because they say 'cannot'.

[Algol]

You won't care what it looks like if you're dead. It has happened! On numerous occasions. Why do you feel so sure it won't happen again?
Personally I rather like the proposal to just ask to hold in position or turn back. I'm really interested to know what they'd do. You're presenting your solution as the only one available to us. Not true. Press-on-itis! You are dying to stick your own neck out which in fact only plays into their hands by legitimising their dysfunctional system. Why do you want to do that?
Why not throw the problem back in their own court!

If enough pilots asked to hold/turn back I think it'd look pretty bad 'on the BBC' too. And you'd get to legitimately witness and enjoy the discomfort it causes them. From the comfort of home.

In reality this is a problem that ICAO needs to get on top of. And IFALPA too!

[Shep69]

You're NOT going to get shot down. When is the last time a nation knowingly shot down a civil airliner ?

You're likely NOT in a weapons engagement zone to begin with for chinese SAMs.

The chinese don't fly continuous armed CAPs looking for errant civil airliners. AND intercepts take significant resources and time.

AND you're talking to someone who can talk to others. Cannot to them means don't want to.

Do what you need to do declaring what you need to declare. The worst thing that will likely happen is you have to explain what you did later. This is pretty easy to do when it involves storms.

[Algol]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents

Note the CX shoot down. By the PLA, over Hainan. :hmm:

[Shep69]

Um....yeah.

Secondary radar and transponder use didn't exist as we know it in 1954 (although there were forms of IFF available).

And few dispute the dangers of traveling through known combat zones or areas of terrorism. China ain't that. AND has an IADS.

[Algol]

The Iran Air Airbus shot down by US Vincennes was squawking a civilian transponder code. But they were targetted anyway. By the 'good guys' with all the 'high tech' gear, and engagement rules etc.

And have you ever heard of aircraft 'false flag' ops? Black Ops?
Its easy to read up on. Google it. I'll bet the PLA have. They might not be put off one iota by your civilian transponder code.

The aircraft that attacked that CX flight may have been rogues. As in - "acting off their own bat". That wouldn't make me feel any better about it. Hotheads, who saw a target and went for it - I'd say there are lots of those in the PLA. They run the country after all, and don't hesitate to use force even on their own people.

China isn't a combat zone?
Hainan wasn't a combat zone in 1954. Hong Kong wasn't at war with China in 1954. Nor was the US or GB.

In fact Hainan seems to be a major hive of hotheaded PLA activity.
This one was in 2001 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
Yes, military aircraft on both sides - but the whole scenario was reminiscent of the 1954 incident. And it rather puts paid to your proposition that intercepts are too hard and difficult for the Chinese.

Anyhow - do it your way matey.

[mngmt mole]

...tin foil hats... :hmm:

[Algol]

...says the guy who didn't know his own company had a shoot down by China...:rolleyes:

[mngmt mole]

No. Well aware of that fact. It was also over 50 years ago..the world has moved on. If you seriously think that China will shoot down a CX airliner on a regularly scheduled flight on a recognised airway, then you go ahead and turn around or go into a holding pattern (and what if they won't "let" you do either of those manouvers either?). I won't fly into a dangerous CB. I will divert around it. CX, CAD, ICAO and China can sort out the details later.

[oriental flyer]

To all those pilots proposing to hold on the airway .what about all the other aircraft following you on the same airway at the same altitude ?.
The safety margins will very rapidly become eroded and those pilots following may not know about the traffic jam ahead .
it's a bit like the people who get to the end of the walkway and just stop without a thought to those piling up behind them .

[Algol]

Yes that's certainly a problem, isn't it.
For the controllers.

That's the whole point.

[Algol]

To get shot down you are assuming that the PLA Airforce has armed jets cruising around or SAMs with missiles prepped for launch AND the Command & Control willing to make a unilateral decision in a few minutes.

How do you know there aren't?
It's military airspace after all. How do you know they aren't conducting war games? Or surveilling some Yanks just south of Hainan, as you slip off the airway into the thick of it?

The guys who blasted that CX flight out of the sky were reputedly executed afterward. So they may have acted off their own bat. Forget command and control so!

Or maybe they actually did as they were told, and later made scapegoats. Same net result for CX and its passengers.

The guy who rammed the Yank spy plane probably wasn't told to do that, right? But he didn't need live rounds to get the result he desired. And China still holds the spy plane. Might be considered a 'win' by them.

So you see how things can easily escalate. Fighter pilots are trained killers after all. And mistakes happen.

How long have you lived here?
You mean planet earth? Or just Hong Kong?

Maybe some of you guys haven't been keeping up with current events, but there's a huge military standoff, and political confrontation going on right on your doorstep! Some commentators are openly forecasting a clash which could lead to a Third World War. Top level talks have been held between China and the US in an attempt to cool the rhetoric. But nobody is backing down, least of all China, and with loose cannons like the Philipines and Taiwan involved anything could happen.
Yes it's all so hard to contemplate, isn't it. Especially if you have a short attention span and a general air of denial regarding the seriousness of the situation.


US-China war 'inevitable' unless Washington drops demands over South China Sea

“If the United States’ bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea”, said the paper, which is often seen as a mouth-piece of hardline nationalists in the government in Beijing."

"The People’s Liberation Army, including its navy and air force, will be allowed to “project power” further beyond its borders at sea and more assertively in the air in order to safeguard its maritime possessions, the [Chinese] white paper stated."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11630185/US-China-war-inevitable-unless-Washington-drops-demands-over-South-China-Sea.html

[nike]

algol. calm down. each post is louder than the last.

1954. ffs.

or, actually please fly through the cb and then tell us how that was the better choice.

meantime, we get it. you spend a lot of time looking over your shoulder.


(yes, no caps. gramma. etc. pfft.)

[Algol]

But I'm enjoying this!
Your naivety is hilarious.

[nike]

fair enough. i did notice your crap was absent in the grown ups section in R&N.

[Shep69]

You really need to adjust the tin foil hat, Algol. It's running beyond Alex Jones at this point.

The EP-3 collision was a planned intercept to shadow long range ELINT collecting EP-3 missions which were targeting Hainan and operating in international airspace (not unlike the US intercepts Soviet bombers on long range missions to test the waters). It was pure buffoonery by "wrong way" Wang Wei. The cover story by the Chinese wasn't any better claiming that the heavy aggressively turned into the fighter (losing style points in an unbelievable lie; imagine the shame of a fighter pilot no longer on the planet who now has his government posthumously claiming he was outmaneuvered by a heavy). In any case it was part of a planned military operation which went wrong. Having SOME parallel to the KAL-007 shootdown where the errant 747 aircraft (which was NOT positively identified on radar) through a tragic chain of events may likely have been mistaken for an RC-135 operating out of Shemya (which were also routinely intercepted by the soviets) which was also gathering ELINT information around UHPP. None of these has anything to do with a civil airliner squawking and talking electing to deviate off route to preclude a dangerous situation.

The Iranian shootdown ALSO has no bearing or similarities. The ships were engaged in a current gun battle and were in a hostile combat zone when the Captain of the Vincennes made a bad call to engage what he thought was a hostile aircraft in a combat zone. Several guard calls were made in this case also. As far as I know there's not a war going on over the skies of China at present.

Flying through storms WILL present a very significant safety hazard. The safety risk of leaving an airway while squawking and talking (and relaying intent) is exceedingly low. The choice is clear.

[eternity]

It's not impossible to deviate around weather when the Chinese say no.....it just requires more negotiation.

A few months ago on the way to PEK where were about 100nm west of track (because no deviations to East approved) and flying between two lines of storms.
Suddenly our good mate from Guangzhou tells us were are heading towards a restricted area and we must turn either left or right......

Well we can't......(and a lot of these 'restricted' areas are not marked)

We started off with "unable to comply due weather" etc etc and when that didn't work we explained (in plain English) that there are big storms on both sides of us and we don't fly into thunderstorms.....

The controller wouldn't budge and kept insisting that we must turn either left or right.....all we could give him was 10 degrees left or right, but that wasn't enough......he wouldn't budge.

So we declared a PAN......he transferred us to another frequency (I'm assuming the supervisor) and we were cleared on present heading and requested to turn right (east) as soon as we could.

No problems.

No bogey's on our six.....no missiles coming our way.

We popped in a report the next day (and not surprisingly, never heard anything about it).
It's a regular occurrence, and as long as it's handled properly it's not dangerous....just bloody frustrating!!!!!!!


As long as you keep talking to the controller, keep escalating the situation, tell him what you're doing, use the correct words and also keep monitoring 121.5 then your safe as houses.....you're not going to get shot down.


Eternity.

[bangbounceboeing]

Finally a post by a professional pilot who actually flys heavy commercial airliners for a living:ok:

[Joejetjock]

Route is blocked by weather and request to deviate denied by Chinese ATC:

Reality Check: We can’t under any circumstance intentionally put the aircraft and pax at risk;

Peril/risk lies in the CB , but it also lies in
a trigger happy PLA grunt with his finger on the trigger of a SAM and possibly unaware that the blip on his radar screen is a civil aircraft and not a part of his exercise.

If fuel permits:
Request hold until weather clears

If weather doesn’t clear or not likely to, or hold denied: advise Chinese controller of your intent as follows:

Contacting Ops with situation: Options:
a) return to point of departure
b) divert to a suitable ERA

If fuel does not permit any of the above then you are truly an emergency and justified in declaring your Mayday, sqawking7700, and deviating accordingly. Pucker a bit when you enter the uncleared airspace.

[JammedStab]

Mr. Algol,

If you have a huge CB in front of you and ATC won't let you deviate and you are worried about getting shot down if you deviate, you might want to consider requesting and if not allowed, declaring an emergency to doing a hold at present position.

Then you avoid the thunderstorm and the missiles.

Or are you worried they might shoot you down if you hold.

[Captain Dart]

ASN Aircraft incident 27-JUL-2015 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner N805AN (http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=178088)

[Algol]

JammedStab, did you read my posts before posting? You are AGREEING with me.

Tough luck AA.
FL260. You can just imagine the scenario. No deviations. No climb.
How many of these incidents must occur before something changes.