Little Red and beyond?

[Epsomdog]

Come September the VS operation ABZLHR & EDILHR will cease. Loads on the EDI route are now much improved, ABZ flights can be full on occasions.

Those pax still have to travel! What do we think are the likely options for them?

Will BA increase capacity? If so how?

There's a rumor Star Alliance may contract someone to operate the routes.

Will EI continue in their own right?

Will BA/IAG ask EI to continue, using the same setup?

[LadyL2013]

If a route picks up and numbers suggest a higher number of passengers to make the operation worthwile; can they cancel the ceasing of operations. Not neccesarily for Little Red, but in general.

I guess current users will simply shift to other airlines.

[CabinCrewe]

The idea was to boost transfer pax for VS. That never happened. Cant see the point to point market being desperately lucrative with all the LON competition including the FR STN on the way up, even if the dire load figures previously have improved somewhat.

[highflyer40]

The domestic market is a money loser, it only exists to feed traffic onto long haul, the problem for Virgin and to a lesser extent BA is that they don't connect to their leisure routes that go from gatwick

[PaulFrank]

Real shame, as Little Red was a far better service than BA.

[LadyL2013]

Yes, I always thought that was strange. You see so many people complaining how difficult it is to connect to their Gatwick leisure flights due to only really flying to LHR or because the other airlines don't connect at a convenient time.

[BasilBush]

Following Virgin's return of the slots, ACL invited new bids for the Winter 2015/16 scheduling season in February. See Airport Coordination Limited - IAG/BMI Slot Release - Winter 2015/16 (http://www.acl-uk.org/latestNews.aspx?id=184)

I don't know if anyone has applied. They would have to be brave to do so. If there are no bidders I assume the slots revert to IAG, who would then be able to use them on any route.

[BAladdy]

The domestic market is a money loser, it only exists to feed traffic onto long haul
I would have to disagree with you there.

Yes the domestic market is very competitive but I wouldn't say that it is a total money loser. For instance BA's EDI-LHR service is one of BA's top 20 most profitable shorthaul routes from LHR and BACF make a very nice profit on there EDI-LCY service.

[The96er]

Yes the domestic market is very competitive but I wouldn't say that it is a total money loser. For instance BA's EDI-LHR service is one of BA's top 20 most profitable shorthaul routes from LHR and BACF make a very nice profit on there EDI-LCY service.


You may be right, but airlines never give this sort of information out and only a very few select people within an airline know how particular routes are doing.

[Bagso]

Glasgow - LHR has an average 8 BA flights a day.

Edinburgh currently has average 14 which includes 3 X 767 and 5 Little Red

Aberdeen has an average 8 a day 3 of which are Little Red

Clearly this is nowhere near enough and we should be looking at shuttles every 15 minutes !

Although given Virgin are pulling out I may have spotted a flaw in my business plan !

[Skipness One Echo]

You see so many people complaining how difficult it is to connect to their Gatwick leisure flights due to only really flying to LHR or because the other airlines don't connect at a convenient time.

Virgin have up to five flights per day out of Gatwick, 21 per day out of LHR, upped to 31 if you throw in Delta's JV flights. You can see why they went for LHR. BA only have ten flights each day out of LGW on long haul, the vast bulk before noon. Hence only one of your (minimum) three daily flights is feeding. This is why Heathrow is a hub and Gatwick remains point to point leisure focussed.

Clearly this is nowhere near enough and we should be looking at shuttles every 15 minutes ! Although given Virgin are pulling out I may have spotted a flaw in my business plan !
Not sure what your point is bagso?
BA's yield on GLA was much improved when bmi dropped the route, prices went north rather quickly.

[Epsomdog]

I suppose the questions in mind, when I started this thread were:-

Is there a real need for a second carrier on the LHRABZ & LHREDI routes, to specifically feed the Star Alliance network?
Is there a real need for a second P2P carrier on the LHRABZ & LHREDI routes?

Unless the Star Alliance carriers step up and appoint a carrier to operate the feeders for them. It's beginning to look as if BA will be gifted the monopoly on these routes! Do they have the means to increase capacity as required, I wonder?

[The96er]

BA's yield on GLA was much improved when bmi dropped the route, prices went north rather quickly.

Same has happened at MAN now VS has gone.

[highflyer40]

Star alliance carriers already use BA for feeder flights to Heathrow, cheaper to pay BA than subsidise a money pit feeder operation of their own. As long as there is no expansion at Heathrow BA will not up the frequency of domestics cause for every domestic they add that is one less long haul they can't have

[Skipness One Echo]

They need a certain ratio of short haul to feed long haul and they're moving towards that as they right-size post bmi. So the notion that one less domestic = one more long haul can be strictly true but counter productive. BA maintain good frequency where they are competitive and can make money.

[Bagso]

Skip

My point is that certain parties are suggesting the service failed because they did not have the opportunity to offer the same connectivity to LHR as BA. The maxim seems to be

".....we have 4 flights a day half empty , hey lets put some more on ! "

Hang on, they failed not because of lack of frequency but the quality of product on offer in terms of range of connecting service, customer service , fares etc.

They were empty because put simply there was no demand !

Now the more interesting point is whether IAG get hold of these slots and use them to provide more connectivity from Scotland as some on here have suggested OR infact use them for new routes.

With a dozen plus domestic slot pairs on offer you could use a combination of those to shoe horn in at least two early morning / late afternoon long haul arrivals into LHR could you not ?

The third runway in 20 years time will as HAL suggest offer the "opportunity" infact make that an absolute necessity, to serve cities like Brasilia, Wuhan or Chingqing, well with all due respect to HAL it isn't them fronting up the money in providing the route but it is a good litmus test of IAGs resolve is it not ?

We have had it rammed down our throats by Davies/HAL etc that it is critical that the UK has access to these markets presumably we can therefore expect IAG to get those slots back and announce two or three long haul BRIC routes announcements in fairly short order.

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On a wider point given the failure of LR to establish a presence on three major trunk routes with proven demand who exactly is going to provide all this extra connectivity and capacity to the more obscure domestic points when RW3 appears ?

If LR/ Virgin cannot make Edinburgh, Aberdeen and even Manchester work, what price Plymouth Roborough ?

[Skipness One Echo]

They were empty because put simply there was no demand !
There's loads of demand from Scotland to London but for connections BA have it wrapped up in terms of Avios loyalty and VS came to the market cold. With MAN only useful for connections and useless for P2P nowadays, they don't have a critical mass at LHR to fill the A320 at the frequency needed. In terms of Scotland, their not brining a USP to market and so came a poor second in terms of seats and profoitability. They're at a competitive disadvantage they were never going to beat.

We have had it rammed down our throats by Davies/HAL etc that it is critical that the UK has access to these markets presumably we can therefore expect IAG to get those slots back and announce two or three long haul BRIC routes announcements in fairly short order.
Curious how you can claim an unpublished report is ramming anything down your throat.

On a wider point given the failure of LR to establish a presence on three major trunk routes with proven demand who exactly is going to provide all this extra connectivity and capacity to the more obscure domestic points when RW3 appears ?
If LR/ Virgin cannot make Edinburgh, Aberdeen and even Manchester work, what price Plymouth Roborough ?
None mate, it's been closed......

Bagso, once again you're misrepresenting how this market works or might work going forward. The only player who can make LHR-regions work is likely to be BA.

[Epsomdog]

I agree there is plenty of demand on the two Scotland routes.

VS haven't the mindset to operate these routes!

They were only viewed as a longhaul feeder service. The other empty seats should have been marketed aggressively and sold at very competitive prices. Proper shorthaul yield management has been seriously lacking!

Service on board the flights has been pretty poor, by premium carrier standards!
IE. No hot food! You can have either a choc chip cookie or a micro bag of very salty crisps! This might be ok if you've only paid £50 for your ticket!

It may have been better to operate a two class service, with a moveable class divider. VS may then have been in more familiar territory!

[SealinkBF]

They were not permitted to operate a two class service as what would have reduced the number of seats they were offering, and which were given up by BA/bmi.

BA don't offer hot food on domestics do they? I think I remember getting a drink and a biscuit.

[james170969]

The only hot food British Airways provides on the Glasgow Heathrow shuttle is cooked breakfasts on very early morning flights. All other times you get tea / coffee and a biscuit.

[Bagso]

Virgin came a poor second in terms of seats and profitability. They're at a competitive disadvantage they were never going to beat.

I agree but if there was the demand that many say there is those flights would STILL be full despite the competition !

Curious how you can claim an unpublished report is ramming anything down your throat.

Clearly you havn't read the "interim reports", im suprised there has only been about 6 !

....what price Plymouth Roborough ? None mate, it's been closed......

Deary me, I know, do you not do irony ? The task force backing the plan to reopen however is none other than The National Connectivity Task Force an agency set up by LHR to perpetuate its own ends re a 3rd runway !

Bagso, once again you're misrepresenting how this market works or might work going forward. The only player who can make LHR-regions work is likely to be BA.


....and I doubt despite what HAL say they aint going to service Plymouth or any other domestic route for that matter !

Misreprenting the market ?
I simply said there was no appetite for the Virgin Red services !!!!!

There isn't !

If the demand is there BA will buy the routes and add more frequency, if it isn't they won't !

[BasilBush]

Quote: "They were not permitted to operate a two class service as what would have reduced the number of seats they were offering, and which were given up by BA/bmi."

Where did you get that from? There was no such restriction on classes of service, maximum/minimum number of seats etc. The only restriction was that the slots had to be used on specified city pairs. In fact I imagine the competition authorities would have been delighted had VS offered a differentiated product, as opposed to a clapped out Aer Lingus A320 with very tight seat pitch.

Maybe Branson has been telling porkies again? Such as his complaint that Little Red failed because he wasn't gifted enough slots, when Virgin didn't even apply for the full number of slots on offer.

[Epsomdog]

delighted had VS offered a differentiated product, as opposed to a clapped out Aer Lingus A320 with very tight seat pitch.

The Aer Lingus A320's are most certainly NOT clapped out, as you put it! The seat pitch was as required by VS. The aircraft are maintained to the highest possible standards and in fact consistently achieve industry highest reliability figures for the type!

Aer Lingus at one time used a movable class divider along with convertible seats. This enabled them to maximise the yield on a specific route.

[BasilBush]

OK, I agree that "clapped out" was rather harsh. My point is that Little Red's interiors hardly had the Wow factor of, say, Virgin America's A320s. One of the (many) complaints levelled against BA's domestic connections is their single class/tight seat pitch, irrespective of whether you might be connecting onto a First/Business class long haul flight. VS could have chosen to differentiate themselves from BA in their Little Red operation, but they chose not to. And it was entirely their choice.

[Skipness One Echo]

They were unwilling to put in a more generous seat pitch than BA as if BA need to tighten up to drive a profit in current trading, then VS would have had to make the same call. It's not about being different, it's about making money. The interior was fine and in line with the VS branding, UK domestic trading is not the same as the US market, if it was, BA would be flying F to Edinburgh.

[BasilBush]

I'm sure you're right, Skip. The whole thing was clearly doomed from the start, and had all the hallmarks of a knee-jerk vanity response by SRB. I was just trying to think of ways in which it might have stood a better chance, as quite clearly a head-to-head against BA while offering a similar product was pointless.

Especially as the BMI competition ruling required BA to offer domestic leg fares at attractive rates to other carriers. That's a workable, if not ideal, solution, and certainly better than losing tens of millions of pounds on trying to compete with BA.