MH370 Search area to be expanded

[susier]

'Should the aircraft not be found within the current search area, ministers agreed to extend the search by an additional 60,000 square kilometres to bring the search area to 120,000 square kilometres and thereby cover the entire highest probability area identified by experthttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/uk-malaysia-airlines-crash-idUKKBN0N70LQ20150416#) analysis," they said in a joint statement."Ministers recognise the additional search area may take up to a year to complete given the adverse weather conditions in the upcoming winter months." '


From here:


Australia says expanded search area for Flight MH370 may take a year | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/uk-malaysia-airlines-crash-idUKKBN0N70LQ20150416)

[rh200]

Cool, more ocean floor data.:p

[crippen]

the Indian Ocean covers 73,440,000 square km :sad:

.Indian Ocean | Encyclopedia Britannica (http://global.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/285876/Indian-Ocean).

[SIUYA]

Has there been any cost-benefit analysis been done to justify the cost of continuing to search for the aircraft? :confused:

[AreOut]

I know the MH370 thread was closed because there were no real news but I think this is really breaking.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzOIIFNlx2aUWEtvSjBVS2JWX0E/view

[Left 270]

Can you put a value on finding out the problem/cause that cost an aircraft and lives? If you can do that then a CBA should be easy

[neville_nobody]

Given the amount of satellite data that various countries collect these days I find it ridiculous that we are spending tax payers money for ocean floor survey for a foreign registered airliner. Given that the ATSB would not cough up to go and get Pel Air's Black Boxes why are we now mapping the Indian Ocean?

I bet MI 6 or the CIA would have some indication of what went on why dont our people talk to their people and cut down this wild Goose chase.

Unless of course this is part of the strategy for whatever reason.

[Radix]

.............

[notjustanotherpilot]

Oh dear. Seriously?
If I squint hard enough I can see...

...anything.


Forgive my cynicism.

[Horatio Leafblower]

Surely, if he wanted to avoid detection, he would have turned off the Chemtrails?
A professional pilot would know that the CIA has sat tracking on the Chemtrails units.

[SIUYA]

Can you put a value on finding out the problem/cause that cost an aircraft and lives?

You need to look at the ALARP and SFAIRP if you want to try to answer that.

ALARP - as low as reasonably practicable.

SFAIRP - so far as is reasonably practicable.

The two terms mean pretty much the same thing, and they rely on the concept of “reasonably practicable”, which involves weighing risk against the trouble, time and money needed to control it.

Source: Risk management: ALARP at a glance (http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/alarpglance.htm)

The comment that I made was more to the point of “What are the potential safety benefits likely to be gained at this point by continuing the search?”

In other words, is the trouble, time and money being expended on the search likely to provide any significant safety benefit?

It’s not as though there’s all of a sudden a mysterious safety phenomenon that’s started to cause lots of airliners to divert off course for no apparent reason and to disappear without a trace.

So the balance of risk and societal benefit in continuing the investigation of this (so far) one-off event needs to be considered, particularly when you look at the ATSB’s published information regarding the decision ‘…whether to investigate’, and especially in the context of whether there’s any safety value to be gained from continuation of the search in anticipation that it will provide safety actions other than those that have already been suggested.

Level of response
The level of investigation response is determined by resource availability and such factors as detailed below. These factors are presented in no particular order and may, depending on the circumstances, vary in the degree to which they influence the ATSB's decision to investigate and the level of response.
• anticipated safety value of an investigation, including the likelihood of furthering the understanding of the scope and impact of any safety system failures
• likelihood of safety action arising from the investigation, particularly of national or global significance
• existence and extent of fatalities/serious injuries and/or structural damage to transport vehicles/other infrastructure
• obligations or recommendations under international conventions and/or codes
• nature and extent of public, interest, in particular the potential impact on public confidence in the safety of the transport system
• existence of supporting evidence or requirements to conduct a special investigation based on trends
• relevance to an identified and targeted safety program
• the extent of resources available and projected to be available in the event of conflicting priorities
• the risks associated with not investigating including consideration of whether, in the absence of an ATSB investigation, a credible safety investigation by another party is likely
• timeliness of notification
• training benefit for ATSB investigators.

Source: https://www.atsb.gov.au/about_atsb/investigation-procedures.aspx

Given that the ATSB would not cough up to go and get Pel Air's Black Boxes why are we now mapping the Indian Ocean?

Good question, nicely put, f***ed if I know :8

[Radix]

..........

[nike]

any pilot worth their salt knows the mintra level.

[fastjet45]

It seems to me that they are making a picture fit what they believe are contrails to where they think the aircraft tracked, not actually identifying a contrail found in the middle of a cloud system then confirming it belongs to MH370.

[Evanelpus]

That shows me sweet FA, I'm afraid.

[Australopithecus]

Nike...I always calculate the mintra level or risk being jumped by those pesky 109s out of Abbeville. Can't be too careful...loose lips sink ships, etc.

[DancingDog]

I find it ridiculous that we are spending tax payers money for ocean floor survey for a foreign registered airliner.

We legally have to because the believed crash site is within our SAR region.

If my chopper crashed when we're off of Hawaii then I'd be hoping the local SAR agency would come and look for me rather than not bother since I'm a foreigner. Same deal here.

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370/day2-2014-03-19/190314_Day_two_Search_area_Wide_tv_1.jpg

[Australopithecus]

No we don't. We have an obligation for search and rescue only. This is a criminal investigation of events that did not occur in or over Australian soverign territory.

There are plenty of fishing vessels that are lost in the SAR area that get only a short search. One in fact called a mayday with over thirty crew around the same time as MH370. We sent one search flight only.

[neville_nobody]

If my chopper crashed when we're off of Hawaii then I'd be hoping the local SAR agency would come and look for me rather than not bother since I'm a foreigner. Same deal here.

Except that when you crash your chopper the ELT goes off so everyone has a good idea where you are.

In this instance a multi million dollar aircraft crashes with multiple ELT's and NONE of them work, so we start doing grid patterns all over the ocean?

[Rollleft]

Kirill Prostyakov and Dr Bobby Ulich have put a lot of effort in this analysis. The derision seen here sounds like the first critiques of the handshake timings by Inmarsat. Little wonder that moderators have chosen to stifle the snarkiness on MH370 threads. " Reddit/r/MH370.com " gives more technical detail.

[TWT]

Just reading Byron Bailey's (ex EK 777 pilot) piece in the DT.No doubt his theory is 'old news' but I was curious when he mentioned that a forensic audit of Captain Shah's home computer by the FBI revealed a flight plan with waypoints to the Southern Indian Ocean (deleted by Shah,but data recovered).I hadn't heard this before.

No Cookies | dailytelegraph.com.au (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/mh370s-fate-captain-shah-carefully-pre-planned-and-brilliantly-executed-the-planes-hijacking/story-fni0cx12-1227308452509)

I understood (from media reports) that nothing 'sinister' was found on the computer by the FBI

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2592215/Nothing-sinister-say-FBI-investigators-examining-home-built-flight-simulator-MH370-captain.html

nnnnn
nnnnnn

[onetrack]

I think Byron Bailey has read much more into the results of the forensic search of deleted files on Capt Shah's computer, to suit his story line.
As I recall, the deleted files show Capt Shaw had practised landings on small island airstrips surrounded by large ocean areas.
That's a far different interpretation, from saying there was a flight plan with waypoints to the SIO found.

[TWT]

Cheers onetrack,that sounds about right ;)

[Eastwest Loco]

The answer to all questions is known well within the shadowy world of the US secret services.

Chinese scientists and accompanied documents can cause collateral damage external to the intent.

Quel domage

EWL

[slats11]

Positive news in a sense that a debris field comprising relatively small manmade objects can be found. However this was in an area where the seabed was flat and featureless - it is not certain it would have been found among less favourable topography.


Malaysia Airlines MH370: search for missing aircraft uncovers shipwreck in Indian Ocean (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/technology/sci-tech/malaysia-airlines-mh370-search-for-missing-aircraft-uncovers-shipwreck-in-indian-ocean-20150513-gh13jy.html)

[mm43]

@slats11;

Contrary to your comments, I believe that if MH370 is going to be found within the prescribed search area, then with the gear they've got and those supporting it, they will find it.

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

From the ATSB, today, 27 May....

Operational Update (http://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/updates/operational-update.aspx)

Search to continue. Update on same.

Cheers :ok:

[Icarus2001]

This may have been said before but anyway...It will be very comforting for the families, the airline and possibly Boeing to recover the aircraft. However we may end up no wiser. There may be some indication from FDR/CVR as to whether anyone was conscious on the flight deck at impact and it will tell us the route flown but not the most important part...

Why?

Unless of course there is a recorded message from the person(s) responsible.

[Pinky the pilot]

I hold the firm view that the aircraft will never be found!

Hope I`m wrong though.

[onetrack]

Flightglobal has published an article bringing to the fore, the research work done by 777 check Captain Simon Hardy. Hardy is not only a "hands-on" 777 pilot, he is also a mathematician.

Hardy has done countless calculations and research on the final resting location of MH370 and has recently refined the most likely position as S 39 22′ 46″ E 087 06′ 20″.

There apparently has been a lot of examination and scrutiny of Hardy's calculations, and no-one can yet poke any holes in his work.

His calculated position is a little further South than any previously calculated position, and just outside the current main search area.

The Fugro Discovery search ship has returned to the search area last week, and with the improving weather as Summer approaches, was expected to completely cover the area outlined by Hardy by December 3rd.
Unfortunately, the latest news says one crew member has contracted appendicitis, meaning the Fugro Discovery has had to return to Fremantle port to offload the ill sailor. It takes the FD 6 days to cover the distance from Fremantle, and vice versa.

This latest search zone attempt, to me, appears to be close to the last hope of ever finding the aircraft. However, I understand the ATSB is going to continue the search for some months yet, even if the position outlined by Hardy yields nothing.

David Learmount - latest phase of MH370 search gets interesting (http://davidlearmount.com/2015/11/05/latest-phase-of-mh370-search-gets-interesting/#comments)

[ampclamp]

Nobody can poke holes in his theoretical location as nobody knows how the aircraft was configured and have scant if not zero info on altitude airspeed etc.

He can calculate the crap out of it, but with best guess inputs the results will never be certain.

[mm43]

This latest search zone attempt, to me, appears to be close to the last hope of ever finding the aircraft. However, I understand the ATSB is going to continue the search for some months yet, even if the position outlined by Hardy yields nothing.That certainly appears to be the case, but it may be of interest to listen to Martin Dolan being interviewed yesterday by Kathryn Ryan on:-

[/URL][URL="http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201778429/could-investigators-at-last-be-close-to-discovering-mh370"]Radio NZ National (http://[URL="http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201778429/could-investigators-at-last-be-close-to-discovering-mh370")

[onetrack]

mm43 - Thanks for the link. Mr Dolan certainly exudes confidence and persistence - and I guess the bottom line is, if backers such as the Australian and Malaysian Govts are prepared to continue to throw absolutely vast amounts of money into the search, then the result will almost certainly be, that the wreckage will be found.
However, one does have to wonder at what stage both Govts will decide that enough is enough, and give up.
I also wonder what the wreckage will yield, as regards useful information, if it is finally discovered, more than 2 years after it disappeared.
The bottom of the ocean is not exactly the ideal location for preservation of important evidence, as compared to say, a dry desert region.
Then there is the problem that much of the aircraft wreckage could be severely fragmented and extremely badly damaged, after a high speed, steeply-angled dive into the ocean - which would have been a likely scenario in the case of fuel exhaustion and a lack of control inputs.

[mm43]

The lack of tangible wreckage - when in theory a lot should have floated - leads me to suspect that the manner in which the aircraft entered the water must have played a part in there being, so far, only one piece of flotsam found.

We know from the LHR and SFO incidents that the B777 hull is tough.

[Compylot]

The bottom of the ocean is not exactly the ideal location for preservation of important evidence, as compared to say, a dry desert region. Indeed onetrack, the dry conditions of a desert environment are definitely more conducive to preserving any evidence.

But then one needs to ask, if it had come down in a desert environment, due to the lack of features in such a landscape, would we of found it by now?

Then there is the problem that much of the aircraft wreckage could be severely fragmented and extremely badly damaged, after a high speed, steeply-angled dive into the ocean Yes, but what makes you sure it was a "high speed, steeply angled dive into the ocean" ?

[onetrack]

Yes, but what makes you sure it was a "high speed, steeply angled dive into the ocean" ?Compylot, I'm not sure of anything. I did say "likely scenario".
One would have to imagine that the aircraft travelled S at an altitude that was somewhere near regular flight levels.
If it travelled S at a low FL, one would imagine we would have had reported sightings by shipping on the Indian Ocean.
I must say I'm a little surprised that no other aircraft in the sky that night reported a rogue aircraft sighting.

The general considered opinion is that an aircraft that runs out fuel from even modest FL's, will merely fall into the ocean in a relatively steep dive, because the power and control inputs to keep it flying are no longer there.
So we end up with little more than a piece of falling metal and composites, obeying the physics of gravity - that shares great similarities with a rock hurled into the air, that then falls back to Earth, but lands in a pond.

[Tankengine]

Obviously you are not a glider pilot onetrack.:E

[onehitwonder]

Has is gone to tender?

[Wind_Tunnel]

Another MH370 search audit, another set of gaping holes in the official story. Comparative analysis of 9 drift studies:


https://twitter.com/Brock_McEwen/status/673735285801246720