OK4Wire
10th Apr 2015, 06:48
I have had a quick rummage around the latest seniority list, and just for fun, decided to do a comparison to the Apr 13 list. (two full years).
I looked at the most junior number (the most junior name available) in Apr 13 and then found him (or her) on the latest list.
In two years, he rose 109 places. This leads me to believe that CX is losing an average of 54 pilots a year. We may in fact be adding that number (or more) at the bottom of the list, but they aren't really productive pilots yet, so the overall number on the list may mask the shortage.
Also, looking at a mid-ranking Airbus Captain (next DFO?): he rose a total of 36 slots. That's 18 Captain resignations/retirements per year.
I did read somewhere (AOA figures?) that the total number of retirements for 2014 should have been 12, so it seems like we are at least 50% over that number for Captains, and 450% over for all ranks!
I'm sure NC could do a better job - maybe include a few standard deviations and a square root or two, but that's all I have.
I looked at the most junior number (the most junior name available) in Apr 13 and then found him (or her) on the latest list.
In two years, he rose 109 places. This leads me to believe that CX is losing an average of 54 pilots a year. We may in fact be adding that number (or more) at the bottom of the list, but they aren't really productive pilots yet, so the overall number on the list may mask the shortage.
Also, looking at a mid-ranking Airbus Captain (next DFO?): he rose a total of 36 slots. That's 18 Captain resignations/retirements per year.
I did read somewhere (AOA figures?) that the total number of retirements for 2014 should have been 12, so it seems like we are at least 50% over that number for Captains, and 450% over for all ranks!
I'm sure NC could do a better job - maybe include a few standard deviations and a square root or two, but that's all I have.