Russia threatening Denmark with a nuclear strike

[NutLoose]

Russia warns Denmark of nuclear threat if it joins Nato missile defence shield | City A.M. (http://www.cityam.com/212122/russia-warns-denmark-nuclear-threat-if-it-joins-nato-missile-defence-shield?ITO=sidebar-most-read)

:eek:

[Courtney Mil]

Russia today: any excuse to get angry with NATO. Soon they'll be angry at the whole world and then they'll hunker down in their own little world and seal their borders - in and out. And then NATO will have to dramatically increase their defence spending. And then we can enjoy a war with no battles.

I wonder what they're after?

[air pig]

The fall of the Berlin Wall has a lot to answer for, before that we had a degree of certainty in every day life. Both major superpowers supported their 'friends' and if they got a bit too uppity, they just turned off the supply of weapons fuel and equipment until they calmed down again.

[rh200]

Russia's starting to sound like North Korea, spoiled brats after attention. Very unbecoming of them, actually pathetic and sad that they have fallen so far.

[6000PIC]

Sometime in the future , it might be soon , or it might take a few years , Russia will regret it`s current policy of nationalism at all cost. Failure to even give the impression that diplomacy is the first option , and instead outline expectations of retaliatory action will only alienate this sorry excuse for a modern State from others that share this world.
Demographic change is happening in Russia. Life expectancy is not what it should be , and the birth rate is low. The Russian people won`t forget what has happened to their once great nation , and will hold those responsible to account. The only question is when.

[rh200]

The Russian people won`t forget what has happened to their once great nation , and will hold those responsible to account. The only question is when.

Thats why you control the media, you get to blame the west.

[highflyer40]

I would say putins days are numbered. The billionaires won't stand for him much longer, and wouldn't take the risk of going back to the old days and having the state take their wealth from them. Putin rules at their whim.

[ORAC]

I think you misunderstand the current status quo. The Streetwise Professor has a reasonable handle on it...

Pour Encourager Les Autres, Or Just Another Day in Putinistan (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8757)

Khodorkovsky As a Russian Cincinnatus? Cynical Machiavellian is More Likely. (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8990)

[henra]

I wonder what they're after?

Probably twofold:
Internally: The economy will take quite a hit currently with the Oil Price plus the sanctions. That will affect people's everyday life. You have to deliver some "Show" to compensate for that and distract them from the real cause of that misery.
A clearly defined and conceived external enemy can make People bear bad Governments for quite some time and quite some miserable everyday life. Sadly, there have been numerous examples for that. Therefore I wouldn't get my hopes too high for gettinmg rid of Putin too soon. And even less high for what will follow him if it comes to that.
Externally: Trying to destabilize the front against him. And discourage the two other scandinavians Countries to join NATO.

[dallas]

Reverse roles for a moment as assume red and blue swap colours on a map. Since 1989 who's been more expansionist? If the USA was in Russia's position and saw a former neighbouring satellite leaning towards a new allegiance to the old enemy do you really think the USA would have been so patient?

I'm no apologist for Russia, but they've clearly concluded Ukraine is a bridge too far after lesser allies have already switched.

Where I think the US/NATO/EU has been short-sighted, and I wondered this in early days when there was heretical talk of former WARPAC countries joining NATO, is surely increased membership de-stabilises both the unity and strength of the alliance and increases the likelihood of conflict as there are more moving parts likely to clash? So why dillute?

Take that one step further and look where these countries are in relation to the opposing superpower - let alone taking into account their resources and strategic importance (Sebastapol) - and why on earth are we surprised that Russia has done anything less than they have?

[t43562]

Take that one step further and look where these countries are in relation to the opposing superpower - let alone taking into account their resources and strategic importance (Sebastapol) - and why on earth are we surprised that Russia has done anything less than they have? Because it's choosing to be enemies with the West instead of getting along in the way that other European countries have chosen to do after all the destructive wars they've been involved in with each other over the last N hundred years. After all they sit directly on each others borders too and killed each other in the millions and now you find them in the same economic club.

[rh200]

This isn't the days gone by, or wasn't until Putin got to power and passion fingers got elected to the white house.

The west is and NATO is and has never been a threat to Russia in the traditional sense. The powers to be in Russia are not stupid and know this.

It is a threat with ideas and freedom, and in some sense their culture, a bit like how the senior Islamists see us now. As such they use various means to push their agenda, using the military threat scenario is a old one but a good one.

[Pontius Navigator]

No, Dallas has a point. It is always instructive to turn the map around.

Looking at the beginnings after the Revolution we see the communists entirely ringed with countries, including the old European States, all intent on crushing the revolutionaries.

After 20 years they were again attacked and Moscow threatened. They then established a secure two country buffer zone to the west. The weakest link was Czechoslovakia which bordered both west and USSR.

Then you have a nuclear armed and now bellicose USA fervently opposed to the perceived threat from communism and you are surprised they are paranoid.

[melmothtw]

Then you have a nuclear armed and now bellicose USA fervently opposed to the perceived threat from communism and you are surprised they are paranoid.

Except that Russia is not communist.

[MPN11]

Exactly, PN ... they have alway had this phobia about being surrounded, although I had hoped they had grown out of that by now.

They have a 'need' for buffer States [think of their history] and a 'need' for warm water ports. They ARE surrounded.

[ORAC]

You're only surrounded if you don't have friends and are paranoid. And, historically, that's what Russia seems to be. And you can't negotiate sensibly with a paranoid state....

[t43562]

I think the idea about this being a "clash of ideas" is probably the underlying cause.

In a Western world, the people in Russia who are now rich and powerful would end up in jail or, even worse, poor. They're not really financial geniuses or great builders of industry. So they don't see a place for themselves in a peaceful, self-enriching Europe. Living on the edge, buying houses and having holidays was fine because that's on their terms.

It's Mugabe and Zimbabwe but with nuclear weapons.

They are bullies at home - that's how they get what they want - and it comes naturally to bully abroad. Reason is a one-way tool for them. So I would suggest not wasting your time taking too much notice of their reasons. You could curl up and die and that might satisfy them or lick their boots but nothing else will be enough.

[rh200]

Then you have a nuclear armed and now bellicose USA fervently opposed to the perceived threat from communism and you are surprised they are paranoid.

Theres hardly anyone in Europe who could fight their way out of a paper bag in relation to a decent opponent. The Yanks are barely able to invade and win against a third world country due to political constraints. Who the f#$% are people kidding, when they say that the Russians are paranoid about being surrounded.

Yes on the street level, at the higher up level they know better. The surrounded and threat bit, is purely about culture, influence and power.

[henra]

Yes on the street level, at the higher up level they know better. The surrounded and threat bit, is purely about culture, influence and power.

But the Sentiment on the street is exactly what it's all about.

Putin uses it to foster his position in the popular opinion by doing exactly what he is doing right now.
Therefore, the point @Pontius Navigator makes is absolutely valid. The Russians feel surrounded: The Population by NATO which has kept creeping ever closer to them, the Regime by a Governance model that doesn't suit them and would endanger their Power and Possessions).
No one really assumes NATO would invade Russia. Why should they? It is all about Sentiments....

[dallas]

Imagine just for a minute that the Russians actually like their culture, lifestyle, history and heritage, and are broadly proud of it after a lifetime exposure to news with a Russo-tinted slant.

Your long term opponent - who you've watched build up a series of military bases around the world - has annexed your former 'allies', and is now courting your neighbours. At some point you need to draw a line in the sand.

I spoke to a Kazakh mate a while back about this and he said the other satellite countries have always looked at Ukraine as the naughty cousin, while most of the rest are comforted by the Kremlin's security/structure/money. We need to view Ukraine as being akin to, say, Benelux or Mexico and I think Russia has shown quite a lot of restraint. The US have invaded and toted nukes for less over the years.

As for a solution, good question - Tymoshenko et al lifted the stone a year ago with talk of joining NATO etc and Russia couldn't let that happen. Nor does the West want it to happen, as a trigger happy Ukraine with big brother NATO confidence could easily suck us all in trying to reclaim the East or Crimea. I suspect the fix will be a DMZ for now, followed by more glacial economic absorbtion of Ukraine by the EU, but with them under strict instructions not to poke sticks at the bear.

[henra]

Theres hardly anyone in Europe who could fight their way out of a paper bag in relation to a decent opponent.


That is mainly because after two World Wars with 60Million+ dead in the last century there is absolutely no and I repeat no desire for another territorial war in Mainland Europe. And the defence policies and spending reflect this. Don't mistake this for lack of hypothetical capability. There is no will. And looking at History I tend to consider this a positive thing. Even if it means that getting sufficient financial means for Defence is difficult.


The Yanks are barely able to invade and win against a third world country due to political constraints. Who the f#$% are people kidding, when they say that the Russians are paranoid about being surrounded.
Even for a Super Power it is difficult/impossible to win militarily against Guerillas. Ask the Soviet Army about Afghanistan....

Don't mistake this as lack of capability in an all out conventional war. In that regard the capabilities of the US Military are undisputed.
Conventionally Russia is a fraction of the US Forces especially in effective capabilities. Russia has some decent Special Forces which it nowadays uses by semi Guerilla tactics to destabilize Neighbours plus a still very powerfull nuclear arsenal.

[bill2b]

Thats why you control the media, you get to blame the west.


And of course you can believe everything our warlords and Media tell you then. :rolleyes:

[Martin the Martian]

The problem with Russia wanting buffer states is that when it did have them in the form of the Warsaw Pact it stamped its own authority and philosophy on them with such force (1956 anyone?) that it was hardly surprising that when these countries were free to make their own minds up they did as much as possible to ensure it would never happen again. It's Russia's own fault that their former allies embraced the west with both hands. They surely didn't expect any different?

[Wokkafans]

Former adviser to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, Alexander Nekrassov said on Tuesday that Russia should declare war on the Baltic States and Poland via a tweet.

At least he'll be nice and safe at his home in Islington (for the moment :rolleyes:)

Former Putin Advisor: Declare War on Baltics and Poland (http://upnorth.eu/former-putin-advisor-says-russia-should-declare-war-on-baltics-and-poland/)

[Heathrow Harry]

"Russia should declare war on the Baltic States and Poland via a tweet."

cheaper than the Diplomatic Corps I guess...............

[ORAC]

So many different threads with Russia threatening another nation, it gets confusing. Still, thought this was best put here...

Sweden backs Lithuanian protest against Russia's conduct near NordBal (http://en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/sweden-backs-lithuanian-protest-against-russias-conduct-near-nordbalt.d?id=67860278#ixzz3YvadMbdu)

Sweden on Thursday stated support to the Lithuanian protest over the conduct of Russian military vessels in the Baltic Sea, which impeded the laying of a NordBalt power cable between Lithuania and Sweden.

Pezhman Fivrin, spokesman for the Swedish Foreign Ministry, told BNS that Stockholm saw the Russian behavior as violation of international law. "Sweden has been in contact with Russian authorities and have discussed this issue and stated that this is violation of international law. We are supporting Lithuania in this matter. On Monday, the Foreign Ministry will discuss how to follow this issue up," the diplomat told BNS in a telephone interview from Stockholm. The ministry said that conduct of the Russian Navy were aimed at hindering the laying of the NordBalt cable.

Litgrid, the Lithuanian power transmission system operator in charge of the project, said that the ship guarding the laying of NordBalt cable between Lithuania and Sweden on Thursday was forced out of the zone has not affected the project. However, the company confirmed that this was the third time this year that the ship guarding the cable in the Baltic Sea had to deviate from its route by direction of Russia’s warships.

Russian ambassador gives no answers on hindrances to NordBalt (http://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/foreign-affairs/russian-ambassador-gives-no-answers-on-hindrances-to-nordbalt.d?id=67860252)

Russia's ambassador summoned to the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry on Thursday for a protest on hindrances made by military vessels to the laying of NordBalt cable between Lithuania and Sweden did not give any answers.

"He will look into the Russian position. We will be notified of the official position," Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius told journalists on Thursday.

In his words, the orders made by Russian military vessels to ships monitoring the construction work to leave certain areas have been registered, and the information is shared with NATO. "All this is registered in daily reports of specific ships, this is registered in time – what has been received and from where, as well as the content. We are discussing the information with our partners. I would also like to add that one of the notes was made in coordination with Sweden, as the work was carried out by a Swedish-owned ship. Of course, we are sharing the information with our NATO Allies," said the minister.

Linkevičius expressed hope that international organizations would also urge Russia to comply to international commitments of safe navigation. "We will demand that it should abide (by international commitments), we will demand ourselves and I think the demand will be made by the organizations we are members of, because this is safe navigation. It is not a concern for Lithuania alone, as ships of other countries also sail in the economic zone," the minister told journalists.

In his words, the Russian hindrances will not affect the laying or the NordBalt cables, however, the hindrances are unacceptable: "Everything is going as scheduled, and the project will definitely not be affected, however, hindering work is unacceptable." Linkevičius said he could not specify whether the hindrances were specifically aimed against the power link with Sweden. "I cannot think anything, it's hard for me to guess – there is simply a fact that demands a reaction," said the minister.

The official protest was handed to Russian Ambassador Alexander Udaltsov by Lithuania's Foreign Vice-Minister Andrius Krivas.

The ministry said that a Russian Navy's ship had entered Lithuania's exclusive economic zone on Thursday in the framework of a military exercise of the Russian Baltic Fleet and unlawfully ordered an Alcedo ship of the Swedish company ABB to change its course. Similar incidents were reported on March 19, April 10 and April 24.

Russian ships delaying works on NordBalt electricity link between Lithuania and Sweden (http://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/energy/russian-ships-delaying-works-on-nordbalt-electricity-link-between-lithuania-and-sweden.d?id=67852638)

Russian ships are consistently interfering with a strategic energy project of Lithuania that is laying down an electricity link under the Baltic Sea to connect its grid with Sweden's.

Sources have told DELFI that Russian ships have appeared for the fourth time this month on the site of the cable laying works in the Baltic Sea. The Lithuania side received a notice from the Russian ships on Thursday with instructions to move out of the cable laying zone until 6 PM. The Russians said the place was chosen as a site for military exercise.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius confirmed this. He said Lithuania had sent three protest letters to Moscow since March over similar actions. No response was received. "This is completely unacceptable and in violation of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention," the minister said to DELFI. Linkevičius also told the BNS news agency that he will summon the Russian ambassador to Lithuania over the incident.

The NordBalt link project, worth EUR 550.3m, is managed by Litgrid, Lithuania's state-owned electricity company. The aim of the project is to connect the country's electricity grid to Scandinavia. The cable between Lithuania and Sweden is scheduled to be put into operation by the end of this year. The 450-kilometre underwater connection will have a capacity of 700MW.

[rh200]

The cable between Lithuania and Sweden is scheduled to be put into operation by the end of this year. The 450-kilometre underwater connection will have a capacity of 700MW.

Wouldn't be surprised if the cable turns out to be "faulty" some time down the track. Does Lithuania get a significant amount of its energy from the Soviet, oops Russia

[ORAC]

Section IIX to IX are perturbing.....

How World War III became possible (http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war)

........There is a growing chorus of political analysts, arms control experts, and government officials who are sounding the alarm, trying to call the world's attention to its drift toward disaster. The prospect of a major war, even a nuclear war, in Europe has become thinkable, they warn, even plausible. What they describe is a threat that combines many of the hair-trigger dangers and world-ending stakes of the Cold War with the volatility and false calm that preceded World War I — a comparison I heard with disturbing frequency........

Lukyanov, pointing to the US and Russian military buildups along Eastern Europe, also worried that an accident or provocation could be misconstrued as a deliberate attack and lead to war. In the Cold War, he pointed out, both sides had understood this risk and installed political and physical infrastructure — think of the "emergency red phone" — to manage tensions and prevent them from spiraling out of control. That infrastructure is now gone. "All those mechanisms were disrupted or eroded," he said. "That [infrastructure] has been degraded since the end of the Cold War because the common perception is that we don’t need it anymore."

That the world does not see the risk of war hanging over it, in other words, makes that risk all the likelier. For most Americans, such predictions sound improbable, even silly. But the dangers are growing every week, as are the warnings.

"One can hear eerie echoes of the events a century ago that produced the catastrophe known as World War I," Harvard professor and longtime Pentagon adviser Graham Allison — one of the graybeards of American foreign policy — wrote in a May cover story for the National Interest, co-authored with Russia analyst Dimitri Simes. Their article, "Russia and America: Stumbling to War," (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-america-stumbling-war-12662) warned that an unwanted, full-scale conflict between the US and Russia was increasingly plausible.

In Washington, the threat feels remote. It does not in Eastern Europe. Baltic nations, fearing war, have already begun preparing for it (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/fearing-russian-expansion-baltic-nations-step-up-military-exercises/2015/05/15/b5ee51ee-f8c8-11e4-a47c-e56f4db884ed_story.html). So has Sweden: "We see Russian intelligence operations in Sweden — we can't interpret this in any other way — as preparation for military operations against Sweden," a Swedish security official announced in March.

In May, Finland's defense ministry sent letters to 900,000 citizens — one-sixth of the population — telling them to prepare for conscription in case of a "crisis situation." Lithuania has reinstituted military conscription (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/lithuania-reintroduces-military-conscription-amid-concern-over-russia/517746.html). Poland, in June, appointed a general (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2015/Jun-22/303270-poland-appoints-commander-of-armed-forces-in-case-of-war.ashx?utm_content=bufferc52b7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer) who would take over as military commander in case of war.

Though Western publics remain blissfully unaware, and Western leaders divided, many of the people tasked with securing Europe are treating conflict as more likely. In late April, NATO and other Western officials gathered in Estonia, a former Soviet republic and NATO member on Russia's border that Western analysts most worry could become ground zero for a major war with Russia.

At the conference, Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow spoke so openly (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/may/14/russia-nato-twenty-feet-from-war/) about NATO's efforts to prepare for the possibility of Russia launching a limited nuclear strike in Europe that, according to the journalist Ahmed Rashid, who was in attendance, he had to be repeatedly reminded he was speaking on the record........

[charliegolf]

In a Western world, the people in Russia who are now rich and powerful would end up in jail

In the western world, rich people rarely 'do' jail!

[rh200]

The difference between now and before is significant. Yes paranoia and lack of strategic intelligence meant there was the real percieved possability of attack against the Soviets.

Nobody even remotely believes the west would attack Russia or China first, never going to happen in the foreseable future. Everyone at the top knows that. The Russian people don't though, and that makes them ripe for propaganda.

The best thing Sweden and Finland could do is sign up to NATO and place the reasons directly at Russia's doorstep.

[highflyer40]

That's the thing, there is no chance of a mistaking something for an attack precipitating WWIII, the Russians know the west would never under ANY circumstances launch a preemptive strike, and even if the Russians were to fully invade the old soviet countries, again the west wouldn't do anything other than talk them to death

[Martin the Martian]

Time perhaps to revive Brixmis?

[rmac]

Maybe time to take the economic wind out of the sails of the Russian rich (including Nekrassov). Freezing and seizure of bank accounts and assets as well as deportation in the event of overtly belligerent statements. Full isolation and them let them eat their f#ck#ng cabbage soup and play with their nuclear penis substitutes !!

[Lonewolf_50]

Full isolation and them let them eat their f#ck#ng cabbage soup and play with their nuclear penis substitutes !! The problem is the cleaning up afterwards if they get a bit on someone else's clothing.

[Wensleydale]

Playing Devil's Advocate..... one wonders the outcome should Russia have the cash to bail out a left wing government in financial crisis on the condition that they pull out of NATO. Only hypothetical of course - it could never happen......

[highflyer40]

Would anyone miss them if Greece pulled out??

[GlobalNav]

Yes. The strategic importance of Greece to the freedom of commerce, shipping, air travel alone. Not to speak of the military significance - why do you suppose Churchill and the west did all they could to save the country from communism 70 years ago. The "Bear" is salivating, I'm sure.

[TBM-Legend]

Better to put a Bn or two into Greece than A/Stan or some other dust bowl..

India get foreign aid why not Greece??

[rh200]

India get foreign aid why not Greece??

Foreign aid, funny thing. In theory, a method of helping get some one on their feet and hopefully progress.

In India's case its progressing, nobody has seen anything from the Greek side to idicate if its prepared to change its spots.

Hence why bother.

[lomapaseo]

Agree, between India and Greece. It's like fertilizing a crop or pissing down a hole.

[ORAC]

WARSAW — Romanian Defense Minister Mircea Dusa is aiming to restore conscription as a result of Russia's increased military activities in Eastern Europe and its intervention in Ukraine, reports local daily Gandul.

The planned move would follow similar initiatives in other Eastern European countries. In Lithuania, the country's parliament passed a bill in March to temporarily restore conscription for a period of at least five years. Lithuania's Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevičius said the decision resulted from "changes in the geopolitical situation in the region," which forced the country to increase its "defense capacity in response."

Meanwhile, Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky has announced plans to increase the Czech Republic's troop level from the current 16,600 to as much as 27,000 by 2025. The government may also revive conscription, as there are ongoing discussions on the measure.........

[Lonewolf_50]

Playing Devil's Advocate..... one wonders the outcome should Russia have the cash to bail out a left wing government in financial crisis on the condition that they pull out of NATO. Only hypothetical of course - it could never happen...... Could never happen? Hmmm, not sure that's the case.

The core reason I see that it won't happen is how the Greeks view The Turk as their most troubling threat. More than one Greek colleague in NATO observed to me, privately, that they were sure we, NATO, were backing the wrong horse in Bosnia/Former Yugoslavia.

If the Greeks want to restore their cultural links to the Russians (their national churches are very closely related, Gr and Ru Orthodox) along with a special financial relationship they are free to.

Question is: is that really what they want? I've no idea.

[ORAC]

TIME TO THINK ABOUT “HYBRID DEFENSE” (http://warontherocks.com/2015/07/time-to-think-about-hybrid-defense/?singlepage=1)

[glad rag]

Interesting article ORAC thanks for highlighting it.

[Fonsini]

Everyone forgets that it didn't used to be like this.

In the 1990s Russians barely had a bad word for the West in general and yes, even the United States, in fact they loved us and the world was a better happier place for it, and the Russians were our new best friends.

Then this happened:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia

and suddenly the Russians watched what they believed was an out-of-control NATO randomly bombing one of their former allies, killing countless civilians in the process - and pow, we were the enemy again. Things have not changed since then.

The Russians have a very simple mentality, and one that is paranoid in equal measure. They are convinced that NATO is out to get them, they point to the bombing of Belgrade plus the planned expansion of NATO member states and now they see people putting American made interceptor missiles on their borders thereby reducing the effectiveness of Russian nuclear forces. It all paints a picture for them, an ugly one.

Combine all of that with Putin's bellicose rhetoric and the way the West has been kicking the Russian economy around, putting them under even more pressure, and the situation is actually a lot more dangerous than most people give it credit for.

[glad rag]

"The aim of a NATO missile defence capability is to provide full coverage and protection for all NATO European populations, territory and forces against the increasing threats posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles"

Remind us how many times Russia was asked [and invited] to join the ballistic missile shield program.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49635.htm

[AreOut]

Russia has enough conventional power to obliterate Denmark without firing up nukes. It's true that couple of nukes are cheaper than thousands of conventional missiles but political price would be enormous, if it wouldn't start WWIII that said.

[Royalistflyer]

The west is and NATO is and has never been a threat to Russia in the traditional sense. The powers to be in Russia are not stupid and know this.

It is a threat with ideas and freedom, and in some sense their culture, a bit like how the senior Islamists see us now. As such they use various means to push their agenda, using the military threat scenario is a old one but a good one.

I think that rh200 has this about right.

I think Putin is the best leader the Russians could have. He isn't "expansionist", he merely wants secure, defensible borders. Long history from Napoleon through Hitler has taught the Russians to ensure their borders are secure. They want to protect their borders long before an enemy crosses their actual border - and who can blame them?

The current situation is not a re-run of the Cold War, it is Putin ensuring that everyone understands that his country is strong enough not to be pushed around.

I served through the Cold War period, I remember it. Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans. We were bled dry by the Americans during WW II and we have been led by the nose by them ever since they persuaded us with what we now clearly understand to have been lies (connived at by our own politicians) into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya - all of which have proved futile and are backfiring.

I am strongly opposed to us joining the Americans in their attempts to beat everyone into submission. I am equally opposed to our being in the EU. We can run our own country, our own way, and make our own friends that suit the best interests of our own people.

I think Putin is doing nothing more than that for his people and we should ignore Americans wanting to re-live the Cold War.

[glad rag]

So do you advocate leaving NATO?

[peter we]

I think Putin is the best leader the Russians could have. He isn't "expansionist", he merely wants secure, defensible borders


Rubbish. The Russians have made many comments that Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the other formers parts of the Russian Empire are artificial states that shouldn't exist.

Putin wants the return of the Soviet/Russian Empire. Currently Russian is occupying Transnistria, Georgia and Ukraine and he's threatened the Baltic states, Poland, Denmark and Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

Not Expansionist, my arse.

Certainly the best leader the Russians can get, because thats what they want - a colonial master.

[ORAC]

Now is when it gets dangerous. Putin needs a war and an external enemy, and he is now just a border await from Saudi - and their oilfields.........

Russia retreats to autarky as poverty looms (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11937348/Russia-retreats-to-autarky-as-poverty-looms.html)

Russia is running out of money. President Vladimir Putin is taking a strategic gamble, depleting the Kremlin's last reserve funds to cover the budget and to pay for an escalating war in Syria at the same time.

The three big rating agencies have all issued alerts over recent days, warning that the country's public finances are deteriorating fast and furiously. There is no prospect of an oil revival as long as Saudi Arabia continues to flood the market. Russia cannot borrow abroad at a viable cost. Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit will balloon to 4.4pc of GDP this year, including short-falls in local government spending and social security. The government has committed a further $40bn to bailing out the banking system.

Deficits on this scale are manageable for rich economies with deep capital markets. It is another story for Russia in the midst of a commodity slump and a geopolitical showdown with the West. Oil and gas revenues cover half the budget. "They can't afford to run deficits at all. By the end of next year there won’t be any money left in the oil reserve fund," said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. The finance ministry admits that the funds will be exhausted within sixteen months on current policies.

Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, said the Kremlin has no means of raising large loans to ride out the oil bust. The pool of internal savings is pitifully small. Any attempt to raise funds from the banking system would aggravate the credit crunch. He described the latest efforts to squeeze more money out of Russia's energy companies as the "end of the road". Mr Kudrin resigned in 2011 in protest over Russia's military build-up, fearing that it would test public finances to breaking point. Events are unfolding much as he suggested.

Russia is pressing ahead with massive rearmament, pushing defence spending towards 5pc of GDP and risking the sort of military overstretch that bankrupted the Soviet Union. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said the military budget for 2014 rose 8.1pc in real terms to $84bn as the Kremlin took delivery of new Su-34 long-range combat aircraft and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. It is to rise by another 15pc this year, led by a 60pc surge in arms procurement. This is an astonishing ambition at a time when the economy is in deep crisis, contracting by 4.6pc over the last twelve months.

Mr Putin paired back the plans earlier this year but has since restored the original target, telling a VTB Capital forum this week that the economy has hit bottom and "things are looking up." Diplomats say the reality is that wars in Syria and Ukraine are eating into the budget. Cruise missiles are not cheap.

Mr Putin knows he cannot count on oil and gas any longer, belatedly recognizing that shale technology in the US threatens to cap crude prices for a decade or more, and has effectively destroyed Russia's petro-power business model. The Kremlin has gone back to the drawing board, working from the Spartan assumption that oil will remain stuck at $50 a barrel for the next three years.
It could be even worse. Russia's central bank warned in a report that it may take $30 oil to stop the US shale juggernaut. The central bank’s “risk scenario” talks of a new era of sub-$40 crude that would entrench the current depression. “Under these conditions, GDP could fall by more than 5pc in 2016,” it said.

Mr Putin claims to have an ace up his sleeve: Russia will fall back on industrial self-reliance and import substitution. “Our policies are not frozen. They adapt to circumstances,” he said.

The Kremlin is launching a radical plan to slash imports across twenty key sectors within five years, ranging from heavy machinery to electrical engineering, photonics, cars, tractors, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and food. The targets are drastic. Reliance on foreign farm and forestry machinery is to be cut by 56pc, food processing by 53pc, and engineering equipment by 34pc. State procurement contracts will be steered to companies that produce in the country, whether or not they compete on quality.

But the switch-over costs money that the government does not have. Viktor Semenov from the Belaya Dacha Group said his agro-conglomerate is raking in big subsidies to grow lettuces in the Siberian heartland of Novosibirsk, relying on heated greenhouses to fight temperatures of minus 20 degrees. "We're building 250 hectares of hothouses a year on my farms," he said. Whether it makes sense is anybody's guess. The same vegetables could be imported more cheaply from Turkey.

Trade experts are already shaking their heads. Such a reflex usually means a country is going badly off the rails, though Germany pulled it off with macabre success in the 1930s. “In most of the cases I have known import substitution policies have failed. They degrade the economy," said Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organisation.

Russia has pockets of excellence - currently on display in the Syrian theatre - but the engineering and industrial base of the Soviet era has largely been hollowed out by an overvalued rouble during the commodity boom. It has been a textbook case of the Dutch Disease. Many of the best engineers and technicians have emigrated in a chronic brain-drain. Russian economists say it is far from clear whether the country can suddenly pirouette and manufacture the machines itself. Vladislav Inozemtsev, from the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, said the likely outcome is a retreat into autarky and pauperised decline, ending in withdrawal from the global trading system. “This way leads us towards a quasi-Soviet economy detached from the world and, at the same time, proud of its autarky; towards a deteriorating economy which compensates for the drop in living standards with pervasive propaganda,” he wrote.

Mr Putin is counting on a 50pc devaluation since early 2014 to restore lost competitiveness and ignite a manufacturing renaissance. Having presided over a destructively-strong rouble for a decade, he has now embraced the virtues of a weak currency with the zeal of the converted.

Oleg Deripaska, chief of the aluminium group Rusal, said it is wishful thinking to suppose that a cheap rouble can kick-start an economy caught in a tangle of red-tape, crying out for root-and-branch reform and the rule of law. “We should stop looking at the exchange rate and give some thought to the economic policy we really need. Nobody is going to borrow at 12pc in hard currency to invest,” he said. The chief effect has been to shrink the Russian economy in global terms. “GDP was $2.3 trillion at the peak. It is now $1.2 trillion, and I fear we are going back to the level of 1998 when it was $700bn,” he said. This would be smaller than Holland ($850bn) or half the size of Texas ($1.4 trillion), a remarkable state of affairs for a country vying for superpower military status in Europe and the Middle East.

Igor Sechin, the head of oil giant Rosneft, said devaluation is a false strategy, adding sarcastically that if it was so good to halve the rouble from 30 to 60 against the dollar, why not just keep going and push it all the way to 100. “That would be a dream wouldn’t it?” he said.

In a sense, Mr Putin has little choice. He cannot afford burn through foreign reserves to defend the rouble. They have already fallen from $520bn to $371bn. Standard & Poor's said two-fifths of this money is ear-marked for other functions and cannot be deemed "usable". These reserves look large on paper but are near the minimum safe levels needed to uphold confidence and to cover foreign debt redemptions of Russian companies, running at $12bn to $15bn a quarter.

What is clear is that Russia’s attempt to reinvent itself as an industrial tiger will take years to bear fruit, if it is possible at all. The early evidence is dismal, though Ford has announced that it will start building engines for the Fiesta later this year at its Russian joint venture in Elabuga.

Non-energy exports plunged by 25pc in the third quarter. “This is a vivid illustration of the economy’s deep recession and lack of competitiveness,” said Eldar Vakhitov from BNP Paribas. “Theoretically, rouble weakness should have supported competitiveness of non-oil exports; in reality, it did not help at all,” he said. Russia's capital stock is so badly eroded that the devaluation may leak into price rises and 'stagflation' without boosting output.

Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, said the floating rouble had acted as “shock absorber” when the crisis hit. It is a pre-condition for recovery, but is not enough in itself without deep reform. “We have to swallow the bitter pill,” she said. What is disturbing is that companies have seen a rise in windfall profits of almost 40pc this year from devaluation but investment has dropped by 6.7pc. They are paying off debt and battening down the hatches instead. “Why are they not investing? This is the main question for economic policy in Russia,” she said at the VTB Capital forum.

Polls suggest that Mr Putin remains popular but the full force of the crisis has only started to hit home, and he can no longer keep putting off the choice between guns and butter. Real incomes have dropped by 9.8pc over the last year. Food prices have jumped 17pc. Ivan Starikov, the former deputy economy minister, said the true inflation rate is near 30pc. “We are rapidly approaching the fateful mark where of 50pc of the average Russian family's income will be spent on food. We have again become a country of poor people,” he said.

[ORAC]

Robert Fisk in the Independent: Everyone wrote off the Syrian army. Take another look now (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/with-russias-help-the-syrian-army-is-back-on-its-feet-and-fiercer-than-ever-a6698866.html)

All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure in the Middle East

While the world still rages on at Russia’s presumption in the Middle East – to intervene in Syria instead of letting the Americans decide which dictators should survive or die – we’ve all been forgetting the one institution in that Arab land which continues to function and protect the state which Moscow has decided to preserve: the Syrian army. While Russia has been propagandising its missiles, the Syrian military, undermanned and undergunned a few months ago, has suddenly moved on to the offensive. Earlier this year, we may remember, this same army was being written off, the Bashar al-Assad government said to be reaching its final days..............

All this is only the beginning of Mr Putin’s adventure. He is proving to be quite a traveller to the Middle East – and has already made firm friends of another pillar of the region, that President-Field Marshal who scored more than 96 per cent at the polls and who currently rules Egypt. But the Egyptian army, fighting its little war in Sinai, no longer has strategic experience of a major war. Nor, despite their dalliance in the air over Yemen, Libya, Syria and other targets of opportunity, do the present military authorities in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan have much understanding of how a real war is fought. Libya’s own army is in bits. Iraq’s military has scarcely earned any medals against its Islamist enemies.

But there is one factor which should not be overlooked.

If it wins – and if it holds together and if its manpower, which is admittedly at a low level, can be maintained – then the Syrian military is going to come out of this current war as the most ruthless, battle-trained and battle-hardened Arab army in the entire region. Woe betide any of its neighbours who forget this.

[ORAC]

Montenegro poised for Nato membership (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/montenegro/12027995/Montenegro-poised-for-Nato-membership.html)

Montenegro is on Wednesday expected to become the latest member of Nato, in the face of protests by Russia.

Foreign ministers are expected to vote to invite the tiny former Yugoslav state to join the 28-member defence alliance at a meeting in Brussels. The move is intended to send a signal to Moscow that it cannot dictate terms to the Balkans.

Last year, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said allowing Montenegro to join would be a “provocation” and “irresponsible”, a move that made its Nato membership almost inevitable.

Russia claims it is being “encircled” by Nato. Officials said extending the invitation to the country of half a million people proved that the defence alliance’s “open door” policy of extending membership to those that wish it still stands.

Russian President Vladimir Putin bitterly complains of what he sees as NATO encroachment, especially after the pro-Western Kiev government said it was looking to join the alliance in the future.

NATO offered Ukraine membership in 2008, when Russia went to war against another former Soviet state, Georgia, but Kiev opted for what it said was a "non-bloc" policy instead. President Petro Poroshenko however reversed that position last year over Moscow's support for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.

Georgia is also desperate to join the alliance.

Balkan states Croatia and Albania were the most recent countries to join, in 2009.

Sergei Zheleznyak, a prominent member of Russia's parliament, said Russia might have to punish Montenegro if it joined NATO without holding a referendum. Public opinion is split in the country.

"We would have to change our policy in regard to this friendly country," he said. "If NATO military infrastructure were placed there, we would have to respond by limiting our contacts in economic and other spheres."

[AreOut]

this is basically damned if we do damned if we don't for us...

[KenV]

Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans.

Now there's a short statement that speaks volumes about a person's world view.

[Lonewolf_50]

Yet today I would far rather Britain was working with Russia than with the Americans. Why not with both? I don't understand your "either / or" dichotomy.

I served through the Cold War period, I remember it.
So did I, we were allegedly on the same team.
We were bled dry by the Americans during WW II
Yeah, the Germans had nothing to do with it.
The Italians had nothing to do with it
The Japanese had nothing to do with it

Bizarre PoV you have there. Were you drinking buddies with JFC Fuller, by any chance?

[ORAC]

POLITICO: PUTIN’S DIGITAL OFFENSIVE: NATO’s strategic communications center says Russia is engaged in a “"Preparatory Information War" (http://bit.ly/21XOC6L)” in Latvia with wider repercussions.

Daniel Boffey in the Guardian reports also that Russia has set up warehouses in which an army of bloggers sit day and night, charged with flooding the internet with comments favorable to Russian interests: Europe?s new cold war turns digital as Vladimir Putin expands media offensive (http://bit.ly/1U0B0Gj)

[A_Van]

Had some fun reading this thread. People who never been to Russia (Ukraine, Baltic states, Georgia, etc.) and do not speak Russian have written so many paragraphs explaining how things work in "that empire of evil". Amusing.

On the other hand, it really makes me feel sad to see how educated, knowledgeable and even wise people sometimes represent themselves like victims of a primitive anti-russian propaganda. Helas, the informational war is being escalated on both sides, but let's be careful in supporting politicians who are playing their own games and have their own agendas. Sometimes, I understand small nations suffering from economical depression and crying about "Russian nukes ready to hit them", etc. By this they are trying to get more support from rich NATO countries and maybe get more funds for the "risk they are facing". However, I think that people with some real experience and wisdom should understand that those games have certain limits, try to calm the situation down and not add extra gas to the fire started by short-sighted and sh-t-headed politicians.

IMHO, it is more productive to consider and work out the cases where we can (and should) cooperate. Look, US and Russia finally managed to shut down (to a large extent) the fire from all those mobs and "factions" in Syria. The truce is quite fragile, but the cooperation proved to be possible.

Another (personal) example brings my memory back to the days some 20+ years ago when we started joined manned space flights with NASA. Nearly half of US astronauts we were dealing with were military as well, and it was quite easy to find common language and understanding with them, great guys. The same for our friends in France and other European countries. Politicians were sometimes talking their usual rubbish and hysterical slogans, but joined work went on, goes on and will hopefully continue through the end of lifecycle of the International Space Station and then through joined Mars exploration and further on.

We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".

[Lonewolf_50]

Another (personal) example brings my memory back to the days some 20+ years ago when we started joined manned space flights with NASA. Nearly half of US astronauts we were dealing with were military as well, and it was quite easy to find common language and understanding with them, great guys. The same for our friends in France and other European countries. Politicians were sometimes talking their usual rubbish and hysterical slogans, but joined work went on, goes on and will hopefully continue through the end of lifecycle of the International Space Station and then through joined Mars exploration and further on.

We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe". Bravo, and well said.

[NutLoose]

From his drafty warehouse ?

Only joshing.

[t43562]

Had some fun reading this thread. People who never been to Russia (Ukraine, Baltic states, Georgia, etc.) and do not speak Russian have written so many paragraphs explaining how things work in "that empire of evil". Amusing.
.....

We all here in Europe wish that grandchildren of our grandchildren would not find themselve in an extended Caliphate. That's a common threat no. 1 at the moment and our generation should evaporate its embryos for the next century as minimum. Then we should start demounting all those absurd theatre sceneries like "NATO goes to invade Russia" and "Russian tanks ready to enter Eastern Europe".

A nice appeal to a common prejudice, but given that I live in a former caliphate at the moment, I think its a huge exaggeration.

[ORAC]

Shades of the renowned ice-pick (http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/trotsky-assassinated-in-mexico). Still, quicker than polonium tea......

Ex-Putin crony found dead in Washington died of 'blunt force trauma' (http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/03/exputin_crony_found_dead_in_washington_died_of_blunt_force_t rauma.html)


t-wFKNy0MZQ

[Heathrow Harry]

Hmmm - something odd about this - the Russians seem more than usually upset - and how the hell did it take weeks to say he'd been battered - even now the DA isn't saying he was murdered - and this in a country where every DA's office is a branch of Fox News?????