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View Full Version : Hypothetical Scenario - Russia Invades Ukraine and then Estonia


rgbrock1
5th Mar 2015, 12:01
Purely hypothetical. Russia invades Ukraine and aside from a lot of hot air emanating from NATO and the West, nothing is done in response.

After consolidating their position in Ukraine, Russia now sets its sights on Estonia. And invades this NATO country.

What happens?

Lonewolf_50
5th Mar 2015, 12:30
Being unable to achieve the element of surprise in Estonia, they get a bloody nose.

toffeez
5th Mar 2015, 12:38
The last one to the Kremlin is a sissy

rgbrock1
5th Mar 2015, 13:07
toffeez wrote:

The last one to the Kremlin is a sissy

Didn't the Austrian Corporal say something similar? Didn't quite work out too well for him. :}

charliegolf
5th Mar 2015, 13:24
Estonia would be leaving NATO then!

CG

dazdaz1
5th Mar 2015, 13:48
1) NATO would instigate a no fly zone over Estonia while destroying road and rail links on its borders to stem Russian supplies and hardware entering further into the country.

2) In the three weeks of this action this would allow NATO forces to reinforce Estonia with troops and heavy artillery, ground to air defence capability.

3) US 7th fleet would take up deterrent measures in the black sea.

4) The Estonian President signs an agreement to allow small nuclear defence usage in Estonia areas of conflict.

5) Putin backs down and withdraws due to riots in Moscow.

rgbrock1
5th Mar 2015, 14:01
dazdaz1:

Excellent synopsis of this hypothetical event and one which I share. However, it would be interesting to see how long #2 would take to enact: NATO reinforcing Estonia in the face of the Russian juggernaut. I'd wager that Poland would be the first to send reinforcements. How long the remainder would take is the million dollar question.

Loki
5th Mar 2015, 14:01
dazdaz1

Somewhere in there would be a blockade/containment of the Kaliningrad oblast that exclave of Russia, next door to Lithuania.

pj67coll
5th Mar 2015, 14:03
Nato blathers, Russia wins.

- Peter.

Loki
5th Mar 2015, 14:03
Nice place , Estonia, the Russian speakers did cut up a bit rough in the run up to the break up of the USSR....one wonders how they feel now, more than 20 years later.

angels
5th Mar 2015, 14:39
Ethnic Russian speakers are second rate citizens in Estonia. They cannot have passports until they pass an Estonian language test. Thus many Russian speakers have applied for, and obtained, Russian passports.

Without looking it up, IIRC some 25 percent of Estonians are Russian speakers and this I reckon there is every chance that there is already a rather substantial fifth column in Estonia. A few carefully planted bombs set off at the beginning of any conflict could make all the difference.

I have always thought that any conflict between Nato and Russia has an extreme possibility of going tactical nuclear.

I hope I don't find out if my theory is right or not!

rgbrock1
5th Mar 2015, 14:55
The problem with the use of tactical nukes is that there's a fine line between their use and the contemplation, or knee-jerk reaction, of the use of strategic nuclear weapons. :eek: It's a slippery slope I hope we never see.

Lonewolf_50
5th Mar 2015, 14:58
Estonia isn't worth using a nuke, by either the Russians or the NATO alliance.

That doesn't mean someone wouldn't screw up and use one anyway, but I think most of the tactical nukes have been dismantled.

Most of is one of those scary terms, since just one causes trouble ... and remember, the two nukes used on Japan were very much "tactical nukes" in terms of payload.

G-CPTN
5th Mar 2015, 15:08
l7jwRuXEiNA

MG23
5th Mar 2015, 16:04
Estonia isn't worth using a nuke, by either the Russians or the NATO alliance.

Voters in NATO nations with nukes don't want to die for Estonia.

Of course that doesn't mean their politicians aren't mad enough to do it. Fortunately, I don't see any sign that Putin is.

Krystal n chips
5th Mar 2015, 17:09
Purely hypothetical. Russia invades Ukraine and aside from a lot of hot air emanating from NATO and the West, nothing is done in response.

After consolidating their position in Ukraine, Russia now sets its sights on Estonia. And invades this NATO country.

What happens

You do seem quite desperate for a war, any war in fact, hence the post on the subject or rather yet another military past induced post.

Possibly you envisage rappelling in, with a little gun, a medium size gun and a big gun ?.....hitting a hot DZ perhaps, taking out a battalion, or two, of commies and thereafter regaling the world ?.

Or there again, possibly most sane people don't actually envisage the hypothetical, but subliminally hoped for, scenario given that most of us have more pressing issues in our lives.

Andy_S
5th Mar 2015, 17:54
Purely hypothetical. Russia invades Ukraine and aside from a lot of hot air emanating from NATO and the West, nothing is done in response.?

I think you'll find that's already happened.

As for Estonia, who knows? It's no secret that Mad Vlad wants to re-establish a Soviet style empire, and acting beyond Russian borders to protect the interests of 'Ethnic Russians' (anyone they've given a passport to) is a tried and tested Putin tactic. Estonia conveniently has just such a community. The lesson he has learned from his adventures in Ukraine is that the West will huff and puff and stamp their feet but ultimately draw back from military intervention. It has been suggested Estonia differs from Ukraine by virtue of being a NATO member, and that NATO would be obliged by treaty to come to Estonia's aid in the event of any Russian aggression. Anyone want to take bets on the likelihood of that happening? Personally I wouldn't hold my breath......

rgbrock1
5th Mar 2015, 18:01
Basil:

It's okay, anyone with half a brain knows my hypothetical scenario was just that an not some sort of wistful thinking on my part. :ok:

con-pilot
5th Mar 2015, 19:43
Or there again, possibly most sane people don't actually envisage the hypothetical, but subliminally hoped for, scenario given that most of us have more pressing issues in our lives.

Which begs the question of why you took time out of taking care of the more pressing issues of your life to reply to this thread?

:rolleyes:

Lonewolf_50
5th Mar 2015, 20:16
... most of us have more pressing issues in our lives. You appear not to be included in that "us" given the drivel (http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/557605-hypothetical-scenario-russia-invades-ukraine-then-estonia.html#post8890167) your post contained.

Back to the premise: no, it won't go nuclear. That's how to bet it.
NOTE:
One of the very few points of any value raised in this thread so far was the point on the sizeable fifth column likely to be active.

chuks
6th Mar 2015, 07:53
It's easy to imagine some staged events targeting the Russian-speaking minority in Estonia, when peace-loving Russia is forced to step in and restore order there in order to protect "its" people.

Estonia has already seen some unrest in the past, over the re-siting of a war memorial, that seemed to have been staged by a pro-Russian faction.

It's very awkward, being stuck with a large Russian minority, a left-over from the time of the USSR put there deliberately to weaken Estonia's national interests, when Estonia must be seen to protect the human rights of that minority while also protecting their national interests. I am sure that Vladimir Putin would love some reason to intervene there, but he must be counting on NATO weakness when he calculates his risks. Let's hope he doesn't get it wrong.

On the other hand, what we see as gestures of support for Estonia may also be seen a provocation of Russia.

What of our resident observer of foreign affairs, that fellow who's still trying to figure out who started the Korean War? He's notable by his absence here; I would have expected him to emerge from under his flat rock to tell us where we are going wrong this time.

scotbill
6th Mar 2015, 10:35
Even more insidious is Putin's weakening of the EU by buying influence in countries like Cyprus and the new left-wing Greece, thereby ensuring that they will oppose sanctions.

During the unlamented Scottish referendum campaign, one could only marvel at the naivety of the SNP supporters who preferred RT (balanced!) to the BBC (biased). None of them seemed to realise how well it would suit Putin to have both Scotland and the rest of the UK weakened by independence.

And of course there could be no ulterior motive for Russian oligarchs wishing to buy North Sea oilfields.