Qantas back to SFO

[qfguy]

Yeap, its happening.

From July this year the QF73/74 is going back to SFO. Flights are now loaded into Amadeus.

3 class 744.

[Spey]

There are no spare aircraft...?

Great news if true though! Maybe the Dallas flying has freed up the 747's?

[qfguy]

2 x 744's coming out of VCV. Announcement in the next week or two.

[ACMS]

CX has decided to keep our 400's longer now the fuel is cheaper.....

Maybe QF have too?

[Keg]

2 x 744's coming out of VCV. Announcement in the next week or two.


There was some chatter about that in the lead up to Chrissie. Be great if it's true!

[Eastwest Loco]

Great news if true qfguy, but even if the schedules are loaded in Amadeus the availability has not become live in either Amadeus or by crosslink to Sabre.

Maybe no regulatory approval yet?

Best all

EWL

[dragon man]

The other rumour once again is Berlin. The funniest part of all this is that they are paying people a years pay in redundancy to leave with the last people leaving I think in July and they will then have to start training on the aircraft. What a great transformation plan!!!

[SandyPalms]

How many more are they going to repatriate to restart AKL-LAX?:)

[*Lancer*]

If a route like this is profitable with a resurrected 400 now, imagine how much money QF could make with a new wide-body twin!! :ok:

[Capetonian]

No schedules or availability are loaded in Amadeus for SYD-SFO, and as QF is an Amadeus Altea user, it would be the first GDS to show them.

[Fris B. Fairing]

Maybe this will solve the OJA problem?

[Spey]

I don't think OJA has been a problem. I think that bird has saved the day on the final farewell tour since late last year.

They need extra aircraft for what a friend calls 'ORG SLACK'. Hilarious as the 744 fleet is known as International Rescue. OJQ, OJR etc are a quicker fix than waiting for orders that are not even activated.

How did it get to this in the first place? :ugh:

[Buckshot]

OJQ, OJR etc are a quicker fix than waiting for orders that are not even activated.

I dunno, Spey, I reckon -OJR would take a fair while to get back on deck!

Photos: Boeing 747-438 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Untitled-(Qantas)/Boeing-747-438/2089870/L/&sid=e060e1a5921ca265b19ccc731642159d)

[Spey]

Buckshot that is so funny. I'm a twit as I just wrote the 2 rego's before S and T. LMAO!

Thanks for the message and pic!! I should look before I post. God to think that was scrapped!!!

Which ones are preserved. I seem to remember OJO was ok?

Back to school for me!

Thanks again :{

[Spey]

And doubt very much SFO will happen at all.

Maybe wishful thinking?

[Transition Layer]

Maybe the leased 777s that are on their way will cover the SFO flying? :};)

[73to91]

If they go back to SFO, maybe they can be extended into Canada somewhere, isn't the new board member Canadian?

Make sense if it was to the East though and not just up to YVR as Canadian are doing the non stop from YVR to SYD which is better than a YVR-SFO-Oz service.

How are the loads on the SYD-YVR service during the ski season? Maybe they could keep that service going?

[Tom/PER]

-OJR was one of the first if not the first 744 to be disposed of as it was leased and the leasing costs were rumoured to be astronomical.

[SixDemonBag]

Any more word about possible SFO services?

[Cool banana]

Qantas VH-OJR

[URL="http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/aj-walter-acquires-ex-qantas-747-400-362140/"]


AJ Walter acquires ex-Qantas 747-400

AJ Walter has acquired a Boeing 747-400 airframe for tear down from the receivers of Allco.

The 1992-vintage aircraft, MSN 25547,(VH-OJR) was operated by Qantas Airways since new. Hong Kong Aviation Capital acted as the lease manager for one British and one German bank.

The RB211-524GHT engines were sold to Rolls-Royce in a different transaction.

[C441]

-OJR was one of the first if not the first 744 to be disposed of as it was leased and the leasing costs were rumoured to be astronomical.
and...
AJ Walter has acquired a Boeing 747-400 airframe for tear down from the receivers of Allco.

Same Allco that was involved in the failed Private Equity bid I guess??

[Capetonian]

Any more word about possible SFO services?
Still nothing in GDS.

[The Darkness]

It seems that Qantas will be back flying SYD-SFO on December 20th. Announcement made in Miami at a press conference where American announced flying LAX-SYD on December 17th.


Will this SYD-SFO be B747 or A380? Anyone know?


Congrats on coming back to this market.

[rowdy trousers]

It might be 787 (with an orange star)

[Going Boeing]

It appears that American's new daily B777-300ER service LAX-SYD-LAX service will replace a few QF B744 services to LAX so that freed capacity will be used to return to SFO.

[BNEA320]

Qantas and American Airlines to boost flights between Australia and the US (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-and-american-airlines-to-boost-flights-between-australia-and-the-us-20150609-ghkact.html)


Relevant sentence ........................


"As a result, it will pull out of four weekly 747 flights between Sydney and Los Angeles and one weekly flight from Melbourne to Los Angeles."


Might be some really pissed off Australians who were on QF SYD/LAX, but now being asked to fly AA + even worse, if they were on QF MEL/LAX & now being asked to fly UA or go via SYD, BNE or DFW.

[V-Jet]

Once again Chocolate Rations are increased to 20 grams....

This manette is a genius at giving business to other airlines. I've never seen anyone so happy to hand over hard earned money and infrastructure built up over decades to anyone he can think of.

Idiot.

[Australopithecus]

"manette"...genius. :)

A consequence of having no fleet means you have to outsource lots of pesky stuff like flying to others with vision and purpose.

Doing things like SFO and YVR on a casual basis builds customer loyalty how, exactly?

[neville_nobody]

Why is Joyce now claiming that SFO is a big business destination? It's not like the Internet just turned up yesterday.

Love to know how much the perpetual change culture costs airlines.

Maybe they shouldn't have pulled out in the first place......there's an idea!!

[goodonyamate]

To play the devils advocate for one minute....

Previously QF received revenue from LA. There was no revenue from SFO. Now QF will receive revenue from both.

I'm not at all saying it's perfect, if it was perfect, QF would be flying both. Maybe this is a precursor to building a route for the new type. Maybe once it arrives, we can return those flights to LA.

Surely he wouldn't be dumb enough to sign an agreement that allowed QF to reinstate those LA flights if desired. Would he??

[Beer Baron]

BNEA320, given it's 6 months away you'll find the flights are barely half sold yet so it will be pretty easy to consolidate the affected pax onto the remaining (A380) services.

And think how happy the pax who were already booked to transit LAX on the way to SFO will be to be swapped onto the direct service.

Where has your entrepreneurial spirit gone? Your other posts are all giddy with excitement for airlines starting new routes, why not now?

[V-Jet]

I accept the airline now has limited choices, but he threw away ALL these aircraft, money and routes for what? RedQ?? Endless orders for aircraft that can't operate longhaul routes? If he was a FIFA exec I could understand it, but he doesn't even seem to be getting a kickback, he is just throwing things away.

I know 3 year olds who are better negotiators than this fool and the board let him loose to throw away our PREMIUM CUSTOMERS (you know, the good ones that make all the money) to EK and now AA??

He is so clearly learning on the job it is criminal. 2009 wasn't pleasant in the US, but the likes of Apple, MS (admittedly from Seatac) Oracle, HP etc etc etc etc etc etc etc did still manage to pay their bills over the last few years. And lets not forget the previous idiot that sold the physical gates (the actual real estate) that Qantas OWNED in SFO.

This is like winning a war by handing all your military hardware over to your enemy. We will conquer the Japanese in a cunning plan by letting them set up base in Honolulu. Think of all the ammunition we will save by not having to shoot any of them.......

- Nice someone appreciated the comment AP, just a shame there is little else to laugh about.

[Jeps]

I enjoyed the references in your post also VJ. I can think of an aeroplane that would do well on the SFO route but alas, QF don't possess it at present. Who would've thought an airline would require aircraft ey?

[V-Jet]

I can think of an aeroplane that would do well on the SFO route but alas, QF don't possess it at present. Who would've thought an airline would require aircraft ey?

Certainly no one in Qantas Management.

A google ad for 'Backyard Chicken Coops' has appeared at the bottom of this page:):) Oh the analogies! Seems 'Australia's trusted Chicken Coop Supplier' knows more about Qantas than I would have given them credit for... You could NOT make this stuff up!! (or is that stuff-up?)

[Ngineer]

I enjoy reading your posts V-jet.

You are correct in every thing you say, and your literacy talents are wasted on these threads. You would be better suited writing for much greater audiences I believe.

[underfire]

Note to QF, food is cheap. When you fly for 14 hours, pax expect more than an occasional walk thru with bags of potato chips, oh and the "Aussie fav", a sausage roll.
Really, 14 hours with just those snacks and a breakfast, an hour before landing (of course at 1750 MEL time).

[The Green Goblin]

So the network expands, you whinge, the network shrinks, you whinge, they buy the 777 (one day) and you'll whinge it's too old and they should have got the 350.... They get 350's and of course it's not a Boeing
Basically you're all just a bunch of............pilots :)

It's getting laborious.

[V-Jet]

GG: The problem is that once someone gets used to another businesses product they won't change back without serious thought. Look at it this way. EK could probably fly all of QF's passengers to London for free for a year at least and (because they actually have a global network) probably not even really notice the loss in revenue all that much. AA is even worse. If you need ANY convincing look at the words of Tim Clark about how well it worked out for EK being 'gifted' QF's premium Long Haul customers. Strangely enough, young wee-man has been just as quiet about how well QF did out of that exchange as he has about the triumphant success of Jetstar XXX (insert foreign entity there - maybe start with HKG?) and the stellar trajectory of his once favourite chimaera RedQ.

There is one thing I can say for the AA deal over EK. At least the Jewish population of Australia can still fly to the US. Though not, it would seem, JFK on QF.

As an airline CEO, Elaine is a terrific room renovator - by all accounts the lounges are a massive hit and we should all be justly proud of our efforts on that front. The problem is, most of us wanted to work for an airline and not a builder. Most airlines look after the aircraft and routes first, the lounges are a distant tenth. But not QF - where the Chairman of the Board openly admits they only knew about airlines from 1st Class Lounges and the 1st Class cabin.

There is no doubt in my mind the current cadre of 'leaders' at Qf are trying to replicate the business model of a Webjet type operation, because the rest is probably just too hard for them. They focus on airline 'stuff' only as a last resort when every other option has failed them. And their ability to find other options is nothing short of exemplary.

They should have simply developed a better App for the iTunes App Store rather than do their level best to trash a national icon.

I would love to ask each Board Member (just before I choke them) what exactly it is they believe Qantas really does. Because I do not think they actually know. Worse, I don't think they would even give similar answers, which is why there is no single strategy. How many Glorious(ly different) Five Year Plans can one company have? With the same leadership 'team' is still in place!

[indamiddle]

I don't see what all the fuss is about re planes and crew for SFO.
They also announced a reduction in flights by QF to LAX ex MEL and SYD.
From what I saw on the TV last night (the media are always right) there is
either 1 or 2 extra flights a week total.
If these figures are wrong then I am happy to be corrected. If right they will
cause little change to the current operation.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Qantas Group CEO Alan Joyce, speaking at the carrier’s AGM, defended (24-Oct-2014) the carrier's investment in Jetstar's Asian franchises, noting: "The investments in Asia are less than one A380 in terms of the size of them, and they are huge opportunities for us moving forward."
CAPA (http://centreforaviation.com/news/qantas-group-defends-investments-in-jetstars-asian-franchises-they-are-huge-opportunities-for-us-386600)

V-Jet, as shocking as this sounds, he is a serial "start-up" junkie, paraphrasing his own words. Start many business, most will fail, but hit a home run with one. The "Home Run" in his mind is Jetstar Japan, alleging the current stake is worth double what QF have tipped in. The model we entered was the Tech Wreck pump-&-dump asset boosting of the late 90's.

I wish it was all a dream, but that IS the way he has actually run things as CEO. Look back over the history of announcements (RedQ, AirAsia tie-up + all the Asian franchises) - history, hindsight & his own words in public validates my allegation. No, I am not joking, he actually let this slip during the recent charm offensive.

Notice how these franchise efforts are simply no longer touted & lauded in the media, and will quietly fade away from people consciousness over time. In a future years when the history is written of this era, these will be a footnote in history, seen as diversion from the core business of moving people from A to B, instead of attempting to run a hedge fund trading desk. Management has been seriously diverted from the primary task of running an airline during the Dixon / Joyce era. John Borghetti even admitted how damaging these kinds of distractions were back in 2007 during the previous APA fiasco.

Mr Borghetti said Mr Dixon and chief financial officer Peter Gregg were among high-level staff who worked on the deal.

"Senior management (including) Geoff, Peter, me, a lot of time was taken up with this thing," he told an American Chamber of Commerce lunch.

"It went about six months, you couldn't get your job done, you had to sort of abandon it. You couldn't focus on it."

Mr Borghetti said that other senior executives had "carried the company through" during the attempted takeover period.
Dixon's buyouts warning (http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/dixons-buyouts-warning/story-e6freqmx-1111114304459)

[V-Jet]

CT: Yes. He is after the next sugar hit to increase his bonus or he leaps madly from one idea to the next in the HOPE (as you said) one works. He has been running around like a headless chook when the airline needs an AIRLINE CEO. And as we all know there is no one with any experience in airlines running the place. I think initially they wanted to spin off vast chunks for huge personal gain but that failed, so now they are progressing down any little blind alley that takes their fancy. Which is exactly what any company doesn't want. I hope our product isn't swamped by AA's, but if I was AA I would be all over the little Irish nurk's latest thought bubble. And I would be laughing about it all the way to my next board room meeting and beyond. Qantas won't be able to survive many more of Elaine's triumphantly negotiated deals.

[BNEA320]

just read that with new & revived QF/AA services OZ/USA there will be a 9% increase in capacity from 20DEC, but that there will be no decrease in fares.


So how are they going to sell an extra 9% without dropping fares, even a little ?


Get more yanks to fly here ? More ff seats ?

[correcting]

Just a thought...A redeployment of the JQ 788's to QF could free up some 744's for the Pacific

[BNEA320]

yeh AC seem to be on the money doing BNE/YVR nonstop with 787. Would only have to be twice a week to start with.

[Meet the Fokker]

CT

The "Home Run" in his mind is Jetstar Japan, alleging the current stake is worth double what QF have tipped in

This is how the "home run" looks on the scoreboard:

Started flying on 3 July 2012.

FY ended June 2013: Revenue Y12.8bn Operating Income -Y8.8bn
FY ended June 2014: Revenue Y29.1bn Operating Income -Y11.1bn
FY ending June 2015: Revenue ESt Y 32-33bn Operating Income Est -Y8-9bn

Initial capitalisation Y12bn
Ist recap Nov 2013 Y 11bn
2nd recap Nov 2014 Y11bn

Current Cash Situation approx Y5bn

Business has transitioned from startup and now running at a stable but negative earnings rate of approx 25% of revenue based on a 20XA320 fleet.

There will be a requirement for an additional capital injection before Xmas but JAL is disinclined to participate.

QF is locked into a 33.3% voting shareholding even though it's economic shareholding is now 47.1%.

Elaine claims the stake is worth twice what they have injected = A$ 300m

Now that is interesting math.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Hey, Fokker, no, your calculator isn't faulty. However, someone familiar with the situation suggests there have been informal offers of around $2 billion for the enterprise, hence, exactly as you say, the QF stake would be valued at $600+. That is the logic behind the valuation.

[dragon man]

Any chance you could introduce me to them? I've got an opera house and harbour bridge I'd like to sell!!!'

[Tankengine]

Take the 2 billion for Jetstar Japan, buy us some new aircraft and everyone is happy!:E

[busdriver007]

33.3% is all Qantas can own under Japanese legislation. If they put another $50 million they will never see it again! A business that is stable but has negative earnings is heading for bankruptcy! Jetstar Asia lost $33 million, what an amazing business!:ugh:

[Meet the Fokker]

Curtains

Excuse me if I was not clear enough. QF Group has poured in a total of Yen 15bn to date. This equates to about AUD160m.

Net cash is approx Yen 5 billion with a cash burn rate of Yen 0.7 billion per month. Thus, the Mexican stand-off will reach a climax later this year.

11 of the a/c are owned by Mitsubishi Corporation (5) and Century Tokyo Leasing (6). They each have a 16.7% shareholding (voting) but a diluted economic interest given the two recaps undertaken to date. Neither of these two shareholders wishes to inject additional capital into the business. Likewise Japan Airlines.

The only way the model in Japan can be made to look like it is working is to take the a/c leasing costs and bury them somewhere else in the group via some opaque financial engineering that will be yet another prickly porcupine for QF shareholders to endure.

Not sure why Elaine is dog-whistling a figure of $2 bn but must assume he or "someone who is familiar" means the total Jetstar group. Let's see how that figure is arrived at...

QF ASK's + JQ ASK's = TTL ASK's

(JQ ASK's/TTL ASK's)XQF Market Cap = $2bn

Well the above calculation is as plausible as any other explanation the Coward St abacus clackers might come up with.

As they say, if it walks like a duck...

[CurtainTwitcher]

Fokker, wasn't having a go at you, I simply couldn't resist the obvious gag! I wish there was an auto /Sarc tag.

In all seriousness, the $2 billion valuation has nothing to do with your valid metrics, rather, its what someone else is willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The claimed "fly away" price is in the vicinity of $2 billion. We are talking different things, you are talking logic, reason & accounting valuation. Those familiar with the situation are talking about the valuation of entire entity as a trading asset, not conventional business metrics. We are comparing Fuji's with Cherries.

[Meet the Fokker]

Curtains

No problem. Never thought you were having a go.

Guessing the $2bn would be the only thing to fly away. Definitely some roos loose in the top paddock.

As a sidebar, no Oz mainland cherries allowed in to Japan due to some infestation issue. Prophetic perhaps.

Cheers

[V-Jet]

Probably best not to comment when you are not in possession of factual information. You look very, very silly.

Cant seem to delete this. It was meant to be a response to the delightful FlyboatNorth on another thread. Sorry if anyone read this the way it was written rather than the way I intended it.

[Meet the Fokker]

V

ECAMS issue.
You press edit then it gives you a delete prompt.
If all else fails ...reboot.
Helps to have Bus time.

Always enjoy your posts.

Speaking of "what's it doing now?"..more factual information available soon from the Land of the Fuji apple.