New shortage of pilots.

[Frank Arouet]

Is Australia able to take up the slack with a pilot shortage, or is our over regulated industry too damaged to recover? How about Engineers to cope with the reported growing demand?


From AVWEB 2/1/15.


The crash of AirAsia 8501 on Sunday has raised questions about the safety record of Indonesia's fast-growing aviation industry. While investigators search the Java Sea for clues to the cause of the crash, a New York Times report this week said Indonesia ranks low among other nations in airline safety practices and is one of nine countries with a failing safety grade from the FAA. The European Union prohibits 62 Indonesian carriers from flying to Europe due to these concerns, according to the Times' report. AirAsia is no longer on that list and has improved its safety record, the report said.
Meanwhile, rapid growth of airline service in Southeast Asia -- which has been a boon to manufacturers including Airbus and Boeing -- has millions more people traveling via budget carriers such as AirAsia, The Associated Press reported this week. That has led to shortages of pilots and other personnel while people relocate to other parts of the world such as the Middle East for better-paying aviation jobs, the AP reported. Lim Chee Meng, CEO of a Singapore-based aviation training company, told the AP that airline wages in the region haven't risen enough to make up for the cost of training, leaving carriers with staff shortages amid growing workloads. "It can lead to cascading effects down the road that can contribute to safety issues … which is a big problem," he said.

[Ixixly]

Indonesia has 62 Carriers? Somehow this doesn't sound right... :suspect:

[Metro man]

Probably refers to AOC holders which includes the operator with a couple of light twins doing charters.

[Hasherucf]

Engineers will have a gap in GA at least. Very hard to get an initial licence at the moment. Licence change confusion, training not being recognised and the MONOPOLY that is Aviation Australia is causing a choke point.

[Frank Arouet]

Perhaps I should ask, does Australia have the training infrastructure to fulfill possible future demand for any "reported" vacancies world wide, or has that part of the industry been effectively destroyed by over regulation and high costs? There doesn't appear to be much incentive to become a professional pilot with local qualifications.

[maybegunnadoo]

And here's the rub...

Coming from a recently collapsed Australian regional ( at least 4 now), sh#t load of hours and experience, willing to get an endorsement....

but if you don't have that:

500hrs time on type

You are f#cked...:\

ALL Australian regionals bar the majors fly outdated, old aircraft that will not enable you to get a job overseas ( talking turbine here). It doesn't matter that you've had a 5,10,20 yr safe and successful career, if you ain't got that time on type they ain't interested.

There is a huge pool a skilled, capable crew in Oz at the moment that could fly OS easily but for inane govt rules, idiot accountants and rigid flight departments that cannot see the benefit of employing skilled professional pilots who exceed all their minimum requirements except.... Time on type.:ugh:

[The Green Goblin]

Simply because time on a dash or a Saab or a metro does not qualify you one iota to fly a jet. That's precisely why they want 500 on type. They also probably don't have the trainers to walk you through it.

It took me 1000 hours on the bus to feel like I had enough tools in my bag of tricks to be mostly ahead of it.

Several more and I'm reasonably comfortable. It still catches me out on occassion when I'm high, fast and track shortened after pulling an all nighter. It's something that simply doesn't/didn't happen in props.

Prop flying is a different skill set to jet flying. Flying a jet isn't necessarily harder, but you're no doubt going to make some errors while you're finding your feet. Most airlines would prefer those errors were with a couple of hundred of someone else's passengers and 100 million dollar jet.

[Vpilot53]

The Green Goblin I totally agree with your comments but I am in a similar situation to maybegunnado. I think what he was trying to say is it is frustrating to see Airlines in Asia and Indonesia taking other pilots with just a basic Endo and a CPL with 250hrs. I think Indonesia may have looked at it all wrong. The problem was not only hiring pilots that didn't have time on type. It was a 250hr pilot with a CPL and a A320 Endo. You would have a better success rate if you picked up pilots out of Oz with 2000 Hrs an ATPL and 1500hrs Turbine time. As previously mentioned in the posts it's all about companies not wanting to pay people with experience. The problem with Indonesia is they will create a big pilot shortage with the current Law. The amount of Aircraft on order VS pilots VS What they are willing to pay. 4 regional Airlines have gone belly up in the last 18months. We have a flooded market with airlines losing money and not many aircraft on order. Our pilots need to start looking offshore if they want to continue.

[maybegunnadoo]

GG,

I normally don't reply as I tend to get my head kicked in, however as I'm in the middle of the crap that is Oz regional aviation I hope you won't mind...

Agreed, turbine time is not jet time. And I really agree that you need 1000hrs on type to really start understanding an aircraft type. However even jobs for ATR's are unavailable to these guys. A collective experience of thousands of command, training, checking, crm, weather, F/a's, fuelling, breakdowns, SIM, etc etc and they can't be considered capable to go fly an ATR....

On the point of jets.... Yes I agree that jets are really different, however most pornstar, qlink, tiger recruits are CTL after not a lot of hours and earning money for the company. Asia is no different.

I remember when Impulse and Virgin started up and took a heap of Q'Link dash Capts. The overwhelming consensus from Qantas, Ansett pilots et al was that these guys would all fail because they didn't have jet time. But my recollection was that they had command time and lots of it. They not only succeeded, but (I suspect) had the greatest pleasure in a collective up yours.

Who would you rather in the RH seat? The age old question.. An Oz pilot (and we all read the stuff about how they're valued in Asia etc) with lots of hours, experience, not afraid to tell the Capt he's being a dick etc etc or the 1000 hr recruit with 500 time on type

I tend to feel that the icon of a head bashing itself against a wall is correct in regards to these guys getting a job on a turbine, jet or tractor...

All the recruitment companies we've written to can't /don't help. Mainly I suspect because they can't, because all the contracts require time on type. So they offer juicier contracts to guys who think the grass is greener. Not their fault really, they are just trying to make a buck as well, but boy are the asian airlines missing a pool of recruits!

So to any Asian/Middle East/World airlines out there that need crew and shift through these pages, there are a lot of great people from Skytrans, Brindabella, Vincents etc (and possibly more to come) that don't meet your 500 on type, but would be a great pickup for your flight department. Go on, be daring, be different, give them a job and you won't regret it.

[framer]

Flying a 73 or an A-320 is a bit different from flying a turbo prop, but everyone who is flying a jet has had to come from somewhere.
Some of the guys and girls from Brindabella/Vincent/Skytrans etc will not be suited to making the change to jets as their processors ( read brains) were working at 90% capacity to do a good job as a turbo-prop Capt and 100% won't be enough in the jet. That's SOME of them. Most of them will have had mental capacity to spare on the turbo's and will make perfectly good jet pilots. I say that from having been involved in transitioning Ausi turbo prop Captains from their turbo's into 737's.
For some, the transition is too much of an ask. Most however would be a great asset to the airline. The problem I see is that airlines don't want to invest in a new recruit the time and quality training required to take that turbo prop pilot and make him or her a good jet pilot. There is no wizardry about flying the jets, it's just a different set of skills and if the candidate has the baseline mental capacity to do it well ( most will have) , then all that is needed is the investment in training to get a good product.
Maybegunnadoo's plee to SE Asian airlines will fall on deaf ears because the people making the decisions don't actually understand what makes a good, safe, reliable pilot, and how could they? they've never been turned in early while hot with a tailwind and a front approaching the field and had to decide whether to throw it all away and request vectors to hold or continue with it and hopefully get it in with no dramas all while moving at 7km/min. It's that decision making under time pressure with a high mental workload that is important . The people making the decisions about who to hire would just schedule another meeting for next week if they have to make a tricky decision.
Good luck to all the pilots laid off from the regionals.

[Metro man]

The shortage of A320 Captains in China is so great that you don't even have an interview. If you meet the requirements you start the conversion process and if you get through you start working.

[TBM-Legend]

The boys [and girls] from Kendall Airlines didn't do too well moving to the CRJ....

[framer]

Who would you rather in the RH seat? The age old question.. An Oz pilot (and we all read the stuff about how they're valued in Asia etc) with lots of hours, experience, not afraid to tell the Capt he's being a dick etc etc or the 1000 hr recruit with 500 time on type
Having flown in SE Asia with 1000hr recruits with 500 time on type and plenty of
Oz pilot (and we all read the stuff about how they're valued in Asia etc) with lots of hours, experience, not afraid to tell the Capt he's being a dick etc
I can honestly tell you that it simply depends on the individual. Some of the cadets are really really good and the odd one or two are terrible. Some of the ex regional Oz pilots are really really good and the odd one or two are terrible.
IMHO it depends on the combination of two traits;
1/ Natural ability
2/ Attitude
Often the cadets have great ability and the attitude is a crap shoot.
With the more experienced folk the attitude is normally average /good but sometimes the natural ability is being stretched to it's limits. ( sometimes).

All of the above is recruitment stuff. Once you have pilot X arrive for training it doesn't matter what combo of those two traits they have, if you throw them into a box ticking training system and then expose them to a slack line culture you will never get the most out of them. On the other hand if you train them well, then send them on line for an apprenticeship with dedicated disciplined Captains, you'l create good solid operators......guess what, it costs money and those running the show can't see the return on investment nor are they very often skilled at managing safety cultures. Most of the time they actually don't understand what safety is..... Couldn't explain it to you over a beer if they tried.

[Centaurus]

The boys [and girls] from Kendall Airlines didn't do too well moving to the CRJ....

I recall talking to one of those Kendall pilots about a certain Canadian check pilot sent across to train the Aussies. The Kendall bloke was jump seating watching the Canadian checkie who spent the whole flight being bitterly sarcastic, shouting and generally making a total idiot of himself. No wonder some of the Kendall pilots had trouble flying the CRJ as the "training" they were supposed to be getting at great expense was nothing more than brutalising.

[Oakape]

The boys [and girls] from Kendall Airlines didn't do too well moving to the CRJ....

That had very little to do with the flying skills required for the turbo-prop to jet transition. And before people jump on the politics bandwagon, it had nothing to do with that either! Although there will be some who will never believe it.

a certain Canadian check pilot sent across to train the Aussies

If I remember correctly, he wasn't Canadian. I think he was South American, but my memory grows dim. Either way, he just worked for Bombardier. And yes, he was a complete disaster & removed ASAP. Didn't help much with the politics going on at the time though. However, one captain he recommended be scrubbed was reinstated after a flight with the FSTM & went on to check out on the aircraft. :D

[Chocks Away]

Indonesia has 62 Carriers? Somehow this doesn't sound right...

You better believe it!
270 Million population and continuing to rapidly grow :}
You should try flying in that circus... :ugh: Gotta be on the ball!

Pilot shortage? Yep, in many regions "the pool is already dry" of experience, especially with ALL USA majors recruiting heavily now, along with BA & Virgin (oh I nearly forgot, AND all the Middle East and I mean ALL from Bizjets to heavies, all countries).

Happy Landings :ok:

[HappyBandit]

I agree....no one will look at you unless you have that time on time! Not only that, but operators tend to shy away unless you are current on type, with some requiring 500-1000 hrs on type and last flown that type within last 6 months. So even if you have amassed 500 hrs on type on a 737 for example, a number of operators won't even look at your resume if you have been off that type for whatever reason, for some, greater than 6 months! Then again depends how desperate they are I guess! :rolleyes:

[Homesick-Angel]

At the moment the companies hold all the cards through all levels of aviation meaning the pilots don't have a lot of clout, however just like in 08, the worm will turn and all the hilarious minimums being asked will be reduced or removed altogether. It's just the sh1t end of the cycle for drivers at the moment..

[Metro man]

Get CPL and can't find a job due to lack of hours.
Get C206 job and can't move onto twins due to no multi time.
Get Baron job and can't move onto turboprops due to no turbine time.
Get DHC8/S340 job and can't move onto jets due to no jet time.
Get A320/B737 job and can't move onto wide body due to no time above 100tons.

[prospector]

Get CPL and can't find a job due to lack of hours.




Get A320/B737 job and can't move onto wide body due to no time above 100tons.

Are the 4 stripers flying anything over 100 tons allowed to by-pass everything in between?

[Anthill]

Ha! You wimps should have been here during the '80s.

- You needed 500 hrs to get a job flying a C182.
- You needed 1000 hrs and 200 twin to get a job flying a Baron.
- You needed 2500 hrs to get a Metro FO job ( &1500 twin).
- You needed 4000 hrs to fly a Kingair.
- You needed 1000 hrs on a twin to wash the Citation.

Metroman: Get a wide-body command and can't retire because of failed tax schemes and 3 ex-wives to support.


Seriously, the standard of overseas pilots is very high. Understand that the notion of "superior Australian quality pilots" is just urban myth. I didn't quite get this until I flew overseas. I once worked with a cohort of about 12 Chiliean pilots and, to a man, they could wipe the floor with most Aussie pilots that I have worked with. The best pilot who I ever saw? Equal tie: a Brit and an East German. Do not delude yourself with the mis-placed belief that just because you are an Australian that the world will beat a path to your door. Because it won't.

[Tankengine]

Anthill has it.:ok:

I can remember getting a Navajo endorsement (paid for by the operator) for a job : " hmm, 3000 hrs, 800 Multi, aright, I suppose we can get you into the Navajo":E
That was for an operator I had done C310 charters for, for two years!:eek:

As it happened Qantas recruited the next year, back when they did!:p

[mostlytossas]

I agree also with Anthill. Not to mention why would any Asian carrier give preference to Aussies when they have such a huge population to try and find work for. China has a very high youth unemployment rate as one example.
Asian governments are no different to anywhere else when it comes to trying to look after their own first. As it should be,and as it should be here as well.

[TheColonel]

Well said Anthill. :ok:

[Metro man]

Ha! You wimps should have been here during the '80s.

The early '90s weren't much different. I applied for a Metro F/O job with the following:

1. ATPL
2. 4500 hrs total time
3. 3000 hrs multi time
4. 800 hrs turbine time
5. Multi crew experience.

I didn't even get an interview, the rejection letter explained that they wanted ENDORSED pilots only (their capital letters).

I knew a C206 driver with 5000 hrs total who couldn't get a twin job because he only had 25 hrs multi time.

[OZBUSDRIVER]

Anecdotally, China buys into GA manufacture where no GA exists smells like years of forward planning taking hold. They know the military cannot provide enough pilots so my best guess is they are kickstarting an entire industry from ab initio thru to widebody using a GA pipeline. They have enough population to pick the cream. Interesting to see the socialist state crash into dog eat dog capitalist flight training and job access market. Fallout? Upward mobility? Increasing disposable incomes?

Francis...I understand your point. However, I feel that boat left for China:(

[Frank Arouet]

Yes mate, you appear to be the only one who got my point. Shades of China Southern in Australia. Barney was a visionary.

[JezYBBN]

Dominic it works in reverse too, Ive got Jet time and hanging to go back to Turbo Prop ville .....no ones too interested.

Most frustrating:O

[Username here]

Can't get jet time until you have jet time...

Reminds me of a question about a chicken and an egg...

[Anthill]

You're right there, MrFlappy. At 24 (in 1985) and with 700+ hrs applied to QF when I had all my Senior Com subjects. I got a reject letter saying that my " age for experience ratio was not sufficiently high for further consideration".

[8/8ths Blue]

@jezYBBN


Might understand where you are coming from... I busted my bum (read, blood sweat and tears) to get on to the Jet. Did initial training at American in DFW in the 80's. After flying REDUCED hours per month, longer flights (4 - 4.5 hour legs) with almost nothing to do upstairs ABOVE most of the traffic (which I found... boring)! With a routine of, you fly down and I'll fly back, you end up with 8 or 9 hours in the air, 1 T/O and 1 Landing for the entire trip. I couldn't wait to get back to the Tubines with mostly 2 hour legs, lot's of T/O's and landings, many more different destinations, etc.

[Ramjet555]

OK, I'll throw in my comment.

Back when I was about to hit age 30, I got two phone calls in one day
from Qantas.

I had just managed to pass all the Flight Engineer exams, and not having been a ground engineer I was told I had "unusual qualifications". Anyhow the first phone call was regarding an interview for a FE position and it was politely explained that I was TOO YOUNG as they wanted older guys they could "retire" with the 747's.

Then another person from Qantas called me in the same day and told me I was TOO OLD to be a pilot as I would not have enough years left to work for them.

[Berealgetreal]

Shortage? Complete myth. Like a shortage of people that would choose a job as a Sports Illustrated photographer. Sure flying isn't as good as that but really there's plenty of people that will do it just to wear the uniform..

[Super Cecil]

The gwass is always gweener Wobbert, you'd be sorry. :8

[CFMabc]

The point is, even if you do have a CASA ATPL, once you go overseas, how likely and difficult is it for you to come back home? Your oz MECIR expires, your ASIC expires and we don't even know if CASA would recognize your 737 or A320 rating and hours. It's almost a case of once you leave, you'll most likely never get to get back to Australia with the likes or Jetstar or Virgin. Once you get some hours up, the other better places (personal preference of course) to go if you only have an Australian passport is the Middle East, or if you are lucky, a Euro loco who get desperate for rated DEC (like Ryanair).

[neville_nobody]

The problem in Australia is the access to the experience.

If hypothetically the rest of the world operated like we do; where you sacrifice 10+ years of your life moving house; living in remote areas; working for peanuts just to get 500 heavy single/twin/turbine there would be no pilots at all. Noone else is that stupid.

THE PROBLEM is that the rest of the world leave flight school straight into a turboprop or a jet. So an Australian by the time hes late 20's has fought his way into the RHS of a Regional or doing mining charter, the same guy in Europe or Asia is now a captain in a LCC.

So when you go on the world market the 30 year old Aussie has a few hours in a Dash and the European has A320 command time.

THAT's the problem on the world market.

Personally I think one of the reasons Australians probably overrate their experience is the difficulty in actually getting it, so therefore in their mind because it is difficult it is more valuable which unfortunately isn't actually true on a world market.

When you start working overseas you see what a load of BS the whole Australian system is and comparatively how difficult it is to be a pilot here.

[Bankrupt84]

Nice post Neville,

I can relate to that. I went overseas at 26 and did the whole camping thing to land my second flying job (after instructing) flying a C206. It took me 8 weeks living in a tent before that happened. At the same time a Spanish kid 19 years old arrived also looking for work after getting his CPL. He lasted 1 week before deciding it was to hard to get a job and left.

3 months later whilst I am happy to be flying a C206 for peanuts I look on Facebook and see the Spanish kid is now doing his line training on a 737.

I am 30 now and no further along in my career. That kid is probably getting close to Captain. Any newbie thinking about aviation in Australia should go Airforce or Cadetship.

The traditional way is dead in Australia, after Jetstar and Virgin went into huge expansion sucking up lots of pilots in the mid 00's those companies have levelled out and now becoming more mature. Which means far less expansion, which means less planes bought, meaning no need for pilots.

Shortage of pilots in Australia is not going to happen. Excess of pilots in Australia has happened.

[Goat Whisperer]

At least one domestic airline has a lot of over 65 yo captains, and their retirements will stimulate some throughput.

[Bankrupt84]

I agree Goat,

Not saying that no movement will occur. But it's not going to be at the pace we had only a few years earlier.
How many more flights does Australia need? I could go online now and go to any destination within Australia without having to wait for an open booking.
I just can't see how the airlines can grow much bigger over the next decade. Unless we ramp immigration up.


Perhaps someone with more knowledge can chime in. Perhaps I am talking nonsense.

[Metro man]

The point is, even if you do have a CASA ATPL, once you go overseas, how likely and difficult is it for you to come back home?

After a few years of progress it would be very difficult if not impossible to get back in at your current level. Basically you need a new start up airline for a direct entry captain, and those don't happen very often.

A basing with a foreign airline such as Korean Air or China Southern might be all that's available for a wide body driver, which could be a good option but be careful of tax implications.

Financially, coming back is usually going to involve major belt tightening with lower pay, higher taxes and higher living costs.

[mattyj]

Go overseas, work, make good money, retire early to the Sunshine Coast, buy fishing boat

Stay in Aus, work, make average money, pay exorbitant cost of living, can't afford to retire, live in city suburbs near the airport, holiday in Noosa, go fishing with old mate, contribute 6-pack

[HappyBandit]

Does anyone know or think that this new part 61, which I believe the UK and Europe are undergoing to better align with the rest of the world, will make a difference in where pilots will be able to work? Assuming of course he/she has the right to live and work in these parts of the world?

[training wheels]

and we don't even know if CASA would recognize your 737 or A320 rating and hours.

CASA recognised the hours I've flown overseas to issue me my ATPL as well as Gas Turbune Engine and Pressurisation design features on the license. I also know of a few people who went overseas with relatively low hours and came back to Australia flying the A320. So, yes we do know it's possible and it's not a major issue as long as you have the hours and the verification stamps in the logbook.

[Ramjet555]

neville_nobody (http://www.pprune.org/members/72185-neville_nobody)
Well said. National Pride is one thing, arrogance, and ignorance is systemic in the CASA system that has a disturbing amount of unnecessary counterproductive self-serving bureaucracy that is an economic cancer with ever escalating costs.

The only other place worse is the UK which is where CASA plagiarize expressions like "Underpinning knowledge" and develop acronyms for expressions that are only used by CASA that no one in the rest of the world understands.

Going to American "part Numbers" is an illusion of common sense when its really just thin veneer or white wash to hide a bureaucratic nightmare.

CASA have a vested self-serving financial interest in ever increasing bureaucracy with ever increasing Rules rather than applying the KISS principle.

Australia is lucky for the WW2 Event as many of our regulations originate from RAAF documents that were common around the world.

It's rather interesting looking at how simple and practical those old regs are.

I never ever forget meeting the Director General of the DCA in his office and he spent the entire time with his golf club, hitting balls into a glass jar.

Ramjet...