IS & Article 5

[Ali Barber]

With the IS about to take a town on the Turkish border, if they then cross in to Turkey, can the Turks then invoke Article 5 and force a bigger NATO response, including NATO boots on the ground? What will it say about NATO if some countries don't respond appropriately?

[Tashengurt]

The head of NATO has already declared support for Turkey.
I think their would be some glum faces amongst the newer members if this didn't happen.


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[Pontius Navigator]

As any ISIL incursion would be limited in nature compared with the intention when article 5 was approved, I think an initial NATO response would be to reinforce the border and perhaps enforce a buffer zone.

Remember that Syrian Air Force incursion was met with force but there was no further military response.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Does it count as invasion if ISIS are using tanks that Turkey supplied them with?

[Hempy]

God what a mess..
Tyrant Assad attacked by Free Syrian Army and other groups after a popular uprising. NATO Turkey supports FSA, providing safe haven etc, as does Israel, providing medical assistance as well. Russia, Iran and our friends Iraq support Assad, as does Hezbolah. The UN accuses the FSA of War Crimes. IS wade in from the East like the Mongol hordes and fight FSA and Government forces alike. The US and her friendly Arab allies bomb IS in Syria, collaborating with the FSA along the way, but potentially supporting Assad as well. The tough little Kurds hold out in 'their' territory and fight off everyone who wants some.

The world has gone mad. I actually think we are probably better off waiting for IS to finish their Syrian press and then try and take on Turkey or Israel. The 'Coaltition' can play a secondary role (if the US is capable) while some real regional grunt takes the gloves off, suiting everyone.

IS have numbers, and weapons, and no doubt capable leadership and motivation. But they have been lucky as well, both the Iraqis and Syrian government forces are a shadow of their former selves. Up against very pissed off Turks or Israelis (or both) with US (possibly dont want the UN in on this one..) support, and they'll get smoked.

[racedo]

Why would ISIS bite the hands of Turkey that feeds and sustains them ?

[Tashengurt]

I'd imagine the Turks are quite happy to be the anvil while the PKK get hammered.


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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Because the 49 hostages was a one-off?
Because they are now being attacked by NATO anyway?
Because the guys they are not really attacking Turkey, but just "passing through"?

...and wot Tash said. The Kurds are effectively gaining sovereignty everywhere else, and Turkey would exterminate them given half a chance, and ISIS doing it for them is way more than half a chance. The SP guns Turkey sent probably already had PKK sites programmed in.....

[Bill4a]

Knowing the problems the Turks are having with the Kurds, and the casualties they have taken are still taking, I'd almost bet there are sighs of relief from the families of the conscripts now that the Kurds now have a different enemy on which to focus!

[Lonewolf_50]

With the IS about to take a town on the Turkish border, if they then cross in to Turkey, can the Turks then invoke Article 5 and force a bigger NATO response, including NATO boots on the ground? The can't force a bigger response, but they can invoke article V. There is still the "process" to go through in Brussels for any collective action, to include a silence procedure. Various foreign ministers will ask if this event actually constitutes an Article V situation.

That said, I think it would be good if the Turks ask for allied assistance and get it. Personal opinion, and I am surely biased. I used to work for a Turk in NATO, a man I have deep respect for.

[ShotOne]

It's all a maybe since IS haven't attacked Turkey. Before pondering that particular what-if, what is our strategy now? We're lambasting Qatar and Saudi for "funding terrorism" even though a few months ago we were praising them for doing more or less the same thing. We're told IS is the greatest threat we face. It's not long since we were on the point of fighting, if not actually on their side, certainly against their enemy. Israel have shot down a Syrian mig which was in the act of engaging IS...so is Israel now on IS's side?? What's the plan -is there one?

[racedo]

What's the plan -is there one?

Plan is do as Qatar and Saudi's say because they have money.

Saudi's funding a $3 billion arms purchase by Lebannon from France.

Now we know why France is playing ball.

[teeteringhead]

Why would ISIS bite the hands of Turkey that feeds and sustains them ? Ah Best Beloved, have you not heard the tale of the frog and the scorpion?

A scorpion was at the edge of a large body of water in the hot-and-sandy-sphere. (Insert Nile, Red Sea, Tigris, Euphrates or whatever).

He wants to get across the water, but cannot swim. He spies a Frog.

Scorpion: O Frog, I wish to cross to the other side, but cannot swim. You can, will you give me a lift to the other side?

Frog: Gerroff - you're a scorpion. You'll sting me and I'll die.

Scorpion: But if I sting you and you die, I will drown, for I cannot swim.

Frog: Seems reasonable - climb aboard.

So the scorpion climbs on the frog's back, and the frog starts swimming across the body of water. Halfway across, the scorpion stings the frog.

Frog: You fcukwit! What did you do that for? Now we'll both die!

Scorpion: My friend - this is the Middle East you know .............

[Melchett01]

The big issue wrt Turkey is not whether ISIL drop a few rounds on the wrong side of the border or whether they rampage through Kobane. In all likelihood, none of that will really get the Turks too worried. As far as they are concerned, the Kurdish problem is their main worry and the PKK are designated as a terrorist organisation, with the YPG, the main Kurdish faction getting clobbered in Kobane viewed by Ankara as an off shoot of the PKK.

There are only 2 things that might get them involved now:

1. Negative press in the international community for allowing the Kurds to fight on themselves without help - and even then, given their view of the Kurds this isn't guaranteed.

2. However, any attempt by ISIL to capture or destroy the Tomb of Sulyman Shah, which is a Turkish national monument and sovereign territory 20km inside Syria, and is considered near as you can get to sacred ground for the Turkish nation will result in Ankara getting very very very upset. So much so, that if you believe the press, they swapped out the ceremonial guard force with an SF detachment.

As much as it offends many western and humanitarian sensitivities, that Tomb, a symbol of Turkish history, is what you need to worry about wrt Turkey getting involved.

[Whenurhappy]

Remember that Syrian Air Force incursion was met with force but there was no further military response.


On these occasions, Turkey was able to deal with the matter and requested neither Art 4 or 5 assistance.

[Pontius Navigator]

Wuh, quite. Is there any reason to suppose they would need help against ISIL yet?

Mind you, their tanks look impressive but under armoured.

A well armoured Leopard or an unarmoured M60; difficult choice.

[Melchett01]

PN,

They do have Leopards, but from the pics I've seen I think they've pushed mostly M48 / 60s up to the border.

They do have a far more modern MBT under development but only have a few at the moment. Eventually I think the aim is for something like 1000 or so IIRC - compare that to how many we have!

[taxydual]

Snag is, NATO countries (European) polly's will pull the teeth from the NATO Council as easy as snapping your fingers. They'll leave it to Uncle Sam to do the dirty work.

[ShotOne]

Bigger snag is NATO members have widely varying ideas on what we're trying to achieve.

[AGS Man]

Sitting comfortably in my hotel room in Istanbul as I type maybe I can add to the discussion from the Turkish media side of things. My take is that Turkey is seriously posses off and will try to evoke article 5 if attacked. Joe Biden is getting a lot of bad press and so are the Kurds over last night's riots. My personal read is that there,s a line in the sand that can,t be crossed and the Government keep reminding everybody that they have the largest army in the region. Just a few of my thoughts for what they,'re worth.

[Just This Once...]

New Ottoman Empire?

[racedo]

Biden was right and everybody knows he was, yet Turkey gets away scot free again.

[Lonewolf_50]

Biden was right about what?

[racedo]

Biden was right about what?

Turkey and Qatar allowing miltants and funding them in Syria and Iraq.

He had to apologise last week for saying it but think he made US position clear on it.

[Whenurhappy]

As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in) but taken aside for detailed questioning (I suspect) o/a in Istanbul by a couple of English speaking chaps accompanying the Turkish Police. The British group had military-styled back-packs and were wearing boots. Subtle, eh?

[downsizer]

I'm not sure I'd be comfortable supporting Turkey through article 5, they've not done much till recently to discourage the flow of Jihadis into Syria/Iraq and have been pretty happy for IS to keep the kurds pinned down.

A case of reaping what you sow IMO.

[racedo]

As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in) but taken aside for detailed questioning (I suspect) o/a in Istanbul by a couple of English speaking chaps accompanying the Turkish Police. The British group had military-styled back-packs and were wearing boots. Subtle, eh?

More names added to long list of people to watch.
Bet GCHQ has already detailed files built on them and their friends, mobile phones etc etc

[Whenurhappy]

I'm not sure I'd be comfortable supporting Turkey through article 5, they've not done much till recently to discourage the flow of Jihadis into Syria/Iraq and have been pretty happy for IS to keep the kurds pinned down.
Hence my post (above No 25). Given the Police and Judiciary turmoil after the 17 Dec 13 revelations wrt high level corruption, it's taken 10 months to restore UK-TUR border security links, apparently. We have to be really careful about picking and choosing whether 'we' support Art 5; such fault lines will be happily exploited by Mr Putin adn his ilk.

[rh200]

The basic string pullers of ISIS are not stupid, they know what lines to not cross, that doesn't account for the lower down grunts commanders.

ISIS will not want Turkey involved, it will want to clean up an solidify its own little fiefdom. As such there will be significant goals it aims to acheive to provide it mid term gains to be sustainable.

[racedo]

US already saying loss of Kobani not a big issue and now US and UK are saying about buffer zone in Syria and next it will be No Fly Zone and then next it will be NATO attacking Damascus.

[Whenurhappy]

next it will be NATO attacking Damascus

Why - what is the rationale behind this?

[rh200]

next it will be NATO attacking Damascus

Not unless they have sold out the Ukrainians to the Russians (Seeing who's in the white house it wouldn't surprise me). I would think Vlad would have a thing or two to say about that.

[Melchett01]

next it will be NATO attacking Damascus
Why - what is the rationale behind this?

Whether it's NATO or the Coalition, the aim has always been to remove Assad, at the moment the political will doesn't exist to do it though. At the moment Iraq is the strategic priority because it is an 'ally' that has requested assistance to defend a legitimate 'democracy', unlike Syria which is therefore legally more complex. And I suspect there is a sense of responsibility to get involved there too.

By concentrating on Iraq now, with small numbers of strikes against a defined target set in Syria, it appears the powers that be are just trying to hold back ISIL enough to contain them whilst giving the 'moderate' (and if you believe that...) opposition the necessary space to regenerate their capability before looking west to Damascus. There are probably elements hoping that Turkey does get drawn in because that is realistically the only hope of an Article 5 declaration which would smooth many of the legal complexities with involvement in Syria.

And if I were a betting man, I'd say that Assad knows it's only a matter of time before the focus of strikes switches. The only way he has of securing his Regime long term now is to ensure the opposition aren't in any state to take power once he's gone - the lack of an alternative govt and the desire not to repeat Iraq 03 is probably uppermost in many minds.

What could be an amusing little diversion could be Assad's wife at least trying to hitch a ride back to the UK as I believe she is either a British citizen by birth or holds dual nationality!

[racedo]

Whether it's NATO or the Coalition, the aim has always been to remove Assad, at the moment the political will doesn't exist to do it though. At the moment Iraq is the strategic priority because it is an 'ally' that has requested assistance to defend a legitimate 'democracy', unlike Syria which is therefore legally more complex. And I suspect there is a sense of responsibility to get involved there too.

By concentrating on Iraq now, with small numbers of strikes against a defined target set in Syria, it appears the powers that be are just trying to hold back ISIL enough to contain them whilst giving the 'moderate' (and if you believe that...) opposition the necessary space to regenerate their capability before looking west to Damascus. There are probably elements hoping that Turkey does get drawn in because that is realistically the only hope of an Article 5 declaration which would smooth many of the legal complexities with involvement in Syria.

And if I were a betting man, I'd say that Assad knows it's only a matter of time before the focus of strikes switches. The only way he has of securing his Regime long term now is to ensure the opposition aren't in any state to take power once he's gone - the lack of an alternative govt and the desire not to repeat Iraq 03 is probably uppermost in many minds.

What could be an amusing little diversion could be Assad's wife at least trying to hitch a ride back to the UK as I believe she is either a British citizen by birth or holds dual nationality!

Pretty much as I see it.

Turkey demanded 2 weeks ago that if people wished their involvement it would involve, safe areas in Syria, a NFZ and aim to remove Assad.

Now they have pretty much got what they wanted.

Assad has stood up to everything the West and GCC states have thrown at it and is still in power and is still popular.

The $500 Million Washington is pumping in will be used to bribe and cajole people like they attempted before but Syria knew what they were doing and sidelined pretty much everyone they targeted.

Sole aim is elimintaion of Assad and now they using ISIS as the key having failed with every other false flag.

Turkey has been the supply route for last 3 years of Men, Weapons and Food, that is no going to stop soon.

ISIS can be stopped by a blockade of weapons, men and fuel because look around and you will see the area they hold is not exactly a breadbasket. Same people backing ISIS are the ones backing the supposed moderates in Libya and look at that now.

Best option for West would be to tell Assad we support him, tell same to Baghdad and tell Turkey get in line or FO permanently and make friendly with Iran subject to a treaty the sign with Israel. Then tell Saudis and GCC to STFU or pick up every ISIS follwoer and set them loose in their countrys.
Yeah like any of that would happen sadly.

[Party Animal]

As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in)


Good tactic in my book. Let them go easily. Don't let them return at all - unless of course they can prove they are innocent tourists interested in the historic and artistic cultural activities found in the former Ottoman Empire.

[ShotOne]

Attack Assad? Why...and why now? What's he done to us?

[Tashengurt]

Personally I think we've backed the wrong horse in Syria.


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[Bernoulli]

We should do all that we can to facilitate the journey made by these young chaps from the UK to Syria and Iraq. Perhaps they'd care to take the rest of their ilk with them. Just don't let them come back.

Anyway, I struggle to see what the issue could be if these wretched people were to set up their brutal caliphate. Those who wished to live that way could stop being cuckoos in the European nest and flock to their 'heaven on earth'. Win-win surely?

[Melchett01]

Attack Assad? Why...and why now? What's he done to us?

Made kitchen table supper conversations in the Cotswolds and Islington slightly awkward :hmm:

[Herod]

Anyway, I struggle to see what the issue could be if these wretched people were to set up their brutal caliphate. Those who wished to live that way could stop being cuckoos in the European nest and flock to their 'heaven on earth'. Win-win surely?

I think you're forgetting the people who already live there, who perhaps don't want to be enslaved, raped, beheaded etc. Most of the seven billion plus people in this world just want to get on with life.

[ShotOne]

To come back to the original q'n, if Turkey were to be attacked, we are obliged to help, that being a core principle of NATO and not negotiable. But IS hasn't attacked them nor is there any sign of them doing so. Turkey clearly has it's own priorities and seems to hate Assad more than IS; their list of demands reflects this. The no-fly zone they've demanded, for instance, can only help IS. I don't see we're obliged to attack Syria just to make Turkey happy.

[Pontius Navigator]

Shot, true, but help can take many forms.

Remember it was originally an attack on one . . . That was when there was a common enemy to stop the Soviets picking off one country after another.

[heights good]

Article 5 can only be invoked if it is state attacking another state. IS is not a state (i.e. Not recognised by the UN) so therefore Article 5 doesn't apply.

I hope that helps

HG