Russia banning overflights

[ExXB]

In the news are reports that Russia will ban 'international overflights' should further sanctions be implemented by the EU.

Well, I suppose that would be in breach of a bunch of agreements, but I don't suppose that will stop them.

In the 'good old days' airlines used to route their aircraft South (via India, SE Asia) and North (via Anchorage). But today's aircraft have much longer ranges. The B777-200LR, for example, has a range of 9,300 nm. The more common B777-300ER will take you 7,930 nm. Of course there are diminishing benefits from operating long non-stop flights.

In the event of a overflight ban will the airlines try and 'go-around' Russia or will they add a stop?

Also Russia can expect retaliation. Can their airlines operate anywhere (south and west of MOW) without overflying a EU/NATO country?

[DaveReidUK]

The EU line appears to be that Russia could legally close its airspace if it wished to:

"Helen Kearns, the spokeswoman for the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, said there had been no official information on this from Russian authorities.

Russia could legally close its airspace if it wanted to, according to the EU Commission. Currently, each EU country has a bilateral deal with Moscow on whether its airlines can fly over Russia."

[ExXB]

A routing south via Turkey and Western China (on a London-Tokyo journey) seems do-able with current aircraft. See: Great Circle Mapper (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LHR-IST-CTU-NRT)

The question is if they would do so, or stop somewhere in-between for fuel, etc.?

[INeedTheFull90]

I hope the EU (or individual countries) will do the same. Aeroflot, S7 and Transaero will soon feel the pressure.

[ExXB]

Hi,
I didn't intend on debating the wisdom of any potential routing restriction, but what the airlines are planning, or thinking of doing if a ban comes into effect.

I'm guessing that, with certain modern aircraft, some airlines can fly around Russia. But there are a large number of unknowns, including the efficiency of longer non-stops (and effects on slots, for example) ATC limitations etc.

I focused on Heathrow - Narita, but there are many routes that can/will be affected.

[SMT Member]

Medvedev has reiterated Moscow's intention to close Russian airspace for overflight of EU and US based airlines, if those parties invoke additional sanctions in the energy or finance sector.

This will have a profound impact on EU carriers operating to Asia - China, South Korea and Japan most of all.

Of course it's a bit of shooting your own foot, as Aeroflot derives around 300M USD per year from the overflights.

Anchorage headed back for a sojourn in the spotlight perhaps?

[Winnerhofer]

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00764/inline_32df098a-37a_764911a.jpg

[4Greens]

How to annoy China, Japan and almost everybody else. Not really a goer.

[SMT Member]

Interesting map, but London based airlines are pretty far from having the largest presence of EU carriers in the area. Instead, spare a thought for the guys and girls up in Helsinki, who stand to lose by far the most (apart from Aeroflot, that is) if the ban is invoked:

http://i58.tinypic.com/33pfqcm.jpg

[Basil]

Anchorage headed back for a sojourn
to the Station, ABC, Pioneer etc - Aahh takes yer back a few years :p

[radeng]

In the 1980s, London to Tokyo involved a refuelling stop in Anchorage. That sort of route could be possible non-stop.

[Hotel Tango]

But at what price? The extra costs would have to be passed on to the fare-payers and that could have an impact on tourist revenue both for the airlines and some of the countries affected.

[Lance Murdoch]

I imagine some of the main beneficiaries of Russia closing off its airspace to EU carriers would be the Gulf based airlines. They would not need to change their routing from Europe to the Far East via their hubs (they would not be banned from Russian airspace and even if they were their present routes would be unaffected). There must be some extra expense involved for EU carriers to avoid Russia. This would give the Gulf carriers some room to raise their fares.