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Dushan
28th Jun 2014, 01:27
Yep, leave it to those pesky Serbs to start trouble...

World War One trigger: Murder of Franz Ferdinand and the gunshots that change history | WWI | News | Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world-war-1/485408/WW1-World-War-One-Franz-Ferdinand-centenary)

Oh, and before anyone asks, it was Gavrilo Princip who started it.

arcniz
28th Jun 2014, 02:47
World War One trigger: Murder of Franz Ferdinand and the gunshots that change history -- WWI

More accurately, that event firstly tilled new soil -- as context in which the seeds of the future, from then until now and on to time beyond us, were and continue to be subsequently planted.

We might well ponder (and perhaps grieve over) what future gardens we are sowing today... by our collective actions and inactions that will surely and inexorably transform earth's future times and circumstances, just ahead and spanning thence on toward the horizons of distant centuries, into the triumphs and tragedies that sprout directly from our own doing and making.

sitigeltfel
28th Jun 2014, 04:57
los6obvBbqU

So if you're lonely
You know I'm here waiting for you
I'm just a crosshair
I'm just a shot away from you
And if you leave here
You leave me broken, shattered, I lie
I'm just a crosshair
I'm just a shot, then we can die

I know I won't be leaving here with you

I say don't you know
You say you don't know
I say... take me out!

(I beat Caco to it!)

SpringHeeledJack
28th Jun 2014, 05:32
We might well ponder (and perhaps grieve over) what future gardens we are sowing today... by our collective actions and inactions that will surely and inexorably transform earth's future times and circumstances, just ahead and spanning thence on toward the horizons of distant centuries, into the triumphs and tragedies that sprout directly from our own doing and making.


And until those with real power are personally affected, it will carry on. When one reads of the numbers of young (mostly men) who lost their lives for what? WW1 was truly a dystopian nightmare.



SHJ

radeng
28th Jun 2014, 07:10
With British commitments under the Triple Entente and the guarantee of Belgian independence after the Treaty of London, it was almost inevitable once Russia was involved and the Germans invaded Belgium.

Dushan
28th Jun 2014, 14:42
And then you wonder why there is always unrest in the Balkans…

BBC News - Sarajevo marks 100 years since Archduke Franz Ferdinand shooting (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28062876)


Bosnia's Serbs, Croats and Muslim Bosniaks are still divided over the role Princip played in bringing tensions to a head in Europe in 1914, with counter-commemorations planned by Bosnian Serbs.



Leaders of Serbia and some Bosnian Serbs are boycotting official events, which they say are designed to incriminate Serbs.

On Friday, Serbs in eastern Sarajevo unveiled a statue of Princip, seen by them as a national hero who ended years of occupation of the Balkans by the Austro-Hungarian empire.

In the eastern town of Visegrad, actors will re-enact the murder of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, and the Belgrade Philharmonic will play music by Vivaldi.

airship
28th Jun 2014, 14:52
Back in 1914, most citizens of European countries were almost entirely dependent on the horse-shite and propoganda disseminated by their governments for any information.

100 years on, we can only hope that most modern Europeans (even others in the USA and the rest of the World) have learned something from that. Alas, I would not wish to wager any significant sums...?! :sad:

Dushan
28th Jun 2014, 15:04
airship, don't put any money on the inhabitants of the Balkans.

BenThere
28th Jun 2014, 17:22
Don't put any money on the inhabitants of the Balkans

And don't put any money on the US electorate. We are at great risk of being governed by the clueless, such as yourself, at times, airship.

Rwy in Sight
28th Jun 2014, 18:46
Unfortunately BenThere is right. Most of the Balkans over the previous centuries were the TNT storeroom of Europe but the citizens of the USA and UK lost the power/skill/capacity to control their governments.

Rwy in Sight

Flash2001
28th Jun 2014, 19:05
Y'know, I've noticed a change over the too many years since I first learned about WW1. When I was growing up (To the extent I ever did) it was a article of faith that the Kaiser fomented the war using the hapless Austrians and Serbs as tools. Now the general opinion seems to be that it was just Princep manipulated by a small bunch of Serb super patriots that caused the whole mess. Anyone else noticed the same thing? I bet the German version is a bit different.

After an excellent landing etc...

G-CPTN
28th Jun 2014, 19:42
I bet the German version is a bit different.
As an engineer (from childhood) I followed mechanical machines, but I was surprised when I visited the Dornier museum (in the late 1980s) to learn of aircraft (such as the Dornier X (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_X)) of which I had never heard.

It seems that history was written without the achievements of the Germans (apart from the obvious wartime machines).

angels
28th Jun 2014, 20:32
There's a museum in Vienna which has the car Ferdinand and his wife were in. It's tiny.

Alongside is the uniform he was wearing on the day. There is a tiny hole in the chest area with a tiny brown stain around it. I looked at it and marvelled that such a little hole was a such history changer. As well as the deaths of millions, it led to my Grandad copping a Blighty wound on day one of the Battle of the Somme. Chaos theory personified.

Can't recall the museum, but if you go to Vienna, visit it.

obgraham
28th Jun 2014, 21:59
I've never understood the obsession with the assassination of Ferdy. Any reading of the lead-up to WWI will reveal that the European powers were itching for a fight and spent the prior 15 or so years getting ready for it. Everyone believed it was inevitable.

The Sarajevo incident was just an excuse for what was going to happen anyway.

con-pilot
28th Jun 2014, 22:33
The Sarajevo incident was just an excuse for what was going to happen anyway.

Yes, you are correct, it was just an excuse.

Dushan
28th Jun 2014, 22:37
But the idiot Serbs had to provide it.

rh200
28th Jun 2014, 23:00
Whilst WW1 and WW11 and every other war is a horror, it is an important part of what got us where we are today. Its easy to go, I wish that didn't happen, in fact thats a good thing to wish for.

In reality is we have no idea where we would be today with out it, better or worse off. There is no magical system in play that "good" or whatever we call "good" from our perspective will prevail.

The Sarajevo incident was just an excuse for what was going to happen anyway.

most likely, but not 100%.

But the idiot Serbs had to provide it.

One wonders what the key players at the time thought once all the carnage unfolded around them whilst they where in prison?

Leaders of Serbia and some Bosnian Serbs are boycotting official events, which they say are designed to incriminate Serbs.

Perfectly natural

On Friday, Serbs in eastern Sarajevo unveiled a statue of Princip, seen by them as a national hero who ended years of occupation of the Balkans by the Austro-Hungarian empire.


And thats it, they would prefer it to be remembered for what they think cured and injustice against them, and not be blamed for lighting the spark for a tinder box that was Europe and not of their making.

Much the same now in a lot of places where specific demographics are only concerned with them selves and not as part of the greater good.

Dushan
29th Jun 2014, 00:55
Perfectly natural



And thats it, they would prefer it to be remembered for what they think cured and injustice against them, and not be blamed for lighting the spark for a tinder box that was Europe and not of their making.

Much the same now in a lot of places where specific demographics are only concerned with them selves and not as part of the greater good.

And thus keep the cinders of hatered for another 500 years in the Balkans.

Flash2001
29th Jun 2014, 00:59
I think it was Winston Churchill who said that the Balkans have produced much more history than they are able to consume locally.

After an excellent landing etc...

Hempy
29th Jun 2014, 01:18
Whilst WW1 and WW11 and every other war is a horror, it is an important part of what got us where we are today. Its easy to go, I wish that didn't happen, in fact thats a good thing to wish for.

In reality is we have no idea where we would be today with out it, better or worse off..

Well, we certainly wouldn't be reading PPRuNe on a 4g Smart Phone sitting at 37,000 feet and Mach .86 aboard an aircraft capable of seating almost 1000 people for one. Better or worse?

arcniz
29th Jun 2014, 01:53
And thus keep the cinders of hatred for another 500 years in the Balkans.

The difference today -- a small but possibly meaningful improvement -- is that a very large proportion of people in the world of 2014 have somewhat better access to education and real news coming from independent outside sources, so popular support for obvious demagoguery correspondingly grows harder to glean and convert to open warfare.

If the trend continues for another hundred years, humanity will either grow beyond most issues of the many old tribal wars, or it will become so proficient at warring that tribal controversies and religious disputes will be settled quickly enough through brief and nearly unbounded violence having overwhelmingly fatal effect to the bulk population of one or various of the participating cultures.

mikedreamer787
29th Jun 2014, 05:20
Referring back to WW1, its interesting to note the causes and effects in retrospect. Had Mr Princip not fired his gun and bumped off Ferdie would the Great War ever occurred? Since the WW1 treaties sowed the seeds for WW2 would the rise of Hitler and Nazism in Germany still been inevitable?

Further, without WW2, or had the Allies not aided Russia with tanks and armaments, would the USSR still've become a nuclear superpower - and would we have had a Cold War? Indeed would've there been a USSR as we understand it?

And think of the offshoots of these conflicts in a "necessity is the mother of invention" context. Had WWs 1 and 2 not happened, I reckon by now the popular 'jet age' might be say 25 years old, our first probe to the Moon just completed, and experimen tal nuclear power facilities about to come under tests.

Of course there would be a myriad of offshoot variants both good and bad too large to list here.

radeng
29th Jun 2014, 08:00
It might well have happened in Africa where the French, Belgian, British, Germans and Italians were grabbing various parts.

What I do find puzzling is how anyone expected they could effectively invade and keep Russia or China (or Australia or the US for that matter) merely because of the size of the country, the number of troops needed to control it all and the problem with the lengthening supply chain. Someone said that "raising an army is easy - the problem comes at dinner time", and both Napoleon and Hitler found that out.

con-pilot
29th Jun 2014, 16:14
Had Mr Princip not fired his gun and bumped off Ferdie would the Great War ever occurred?

I think yes, another excuse would have been found.

Effluent Man
29th Jun 2014, 18:58
These "What if" questions are interesting are they not? A Professor on the telly box was putting forward the theory that had the assassination not occurred relations between the countries involved may have improved by 1915.

I have a book written in 1912 by a German military strategist entitled "Germany and the Next War" It seems quite clear that they actually thought that war was a good thing for the development of the nation.And of course Hitler in his final days decreed that the German nation deserved to be destroyed because they had failed to prove themselves superior to the Slavs whom he considered sub-human.You can't argue with that kind of logic.

fitliker
29th Jun 2014, 23:29
If that assassin had not gotten him, there were six other known assassins waiting to illegally kill the Archduke. It was not a lone gunman ,it was a group effort that illegally killed a man and his wife.


Putting a man in an open top vehicle and driving it through a large crowd ,What could possibly go wrong ? We have seen how that film ends in Dallas.
Although some still believe it was a lone gunman in Dallas.

500N
29th Jun 2014, 23:33
fitliker

I think you'll find that they had driven past the other assassins already
and some had decided not to do it and he was the last one.

fitliker
29th Jun 2014, 23:43
The old books had four killers waiting to illegally kill the Duke. The latest has seven killers lurking in the shadows. Who knows, by the time the revisionist apologist appeasers of history finish with the history books Sodom and Gomoragh will have been popular tourist resorts taxed to death by the Romans .


1 is good ,10 is better, is why ninjas arrive mob handed :)

rh200
29th Jun 2014, 23:55
Better or worse?

Who knows, we have no idea where we would be at. As others point out, the variables are to complex to determine the next most probably events. For example you could conclude we where always going to have a major war or two.

The problem is you don't know the circumstances and outcomes of such, any number of things could have made the outcomes of such wars better or worse for us.

An obvious example is Hitler, his rise to power may have been prevented, that variable is an high impact one. Would that have been a good thing? One would like to think so, but maybe not!

reynoldsno1
29th Jun 2014, 23:59
I have to admit to being bemused by these 'events' commemorating the START of a war ....:(

rh200
30th Jun 2014, 04:07
Can an assassination ever be legal? Is it the winners who decide?

Legality is only a relevant term in relation to some jurisdiction.

Pinky the pilot
30th Jun 2014, 11:59
The Sarajevo incident was just an excuse for what was going to happen anyway.
Yes, you are correct, it was just an excuse.


Quote:
Had Mr Princip not fired his gun and bumped off Ferdie would the Great War ever occurred?
I think yes, another excuse would have been found.

con-pilot; If I recall correctly you have a Uni degree in History. Might it possibly be in the period that this thread is about?:)

I would really be interested in your justification (if I may use the word) re your posts quoted above. :ok:

How are ya BTW? Got that 727 out of that field yet?:}:D:E

con-pilot
30th Jun 2014, 17:31
Might it possibly be in the period that this thread is about?

It was post World War Two history, which of course required the study of the cause of WWII, which of course required the study of the cause of WWI or The Great War, as they go hand in hand.

The simple cause of World War Two in Europe was that the European powers lost the peace when the Treaty of Versailles was signed.

How are ya BTW? Got that 727 out of that field yet

Doing really good and have decided to fly it out, got to move some trees first, might take some time. :p

MadsDad
30th Jun 2014, 17:41
Sorry Con, but "Post WW II history"?

That's my life story.

500N
30th Jun 2014, 17:45
Con

What do you mean by (see the bold)

The simple cause of World War Two in Europe was that the European powers lost the peace when the Treaty of Versailles was signed.

Pali
30th Jun 2014, 17:51
Ironically, Gavrilo Princip killed a future emperor who was known as a federalist who wanted to change hegemony of Hungarians and Austrians in favour of other nations including Serbs. Franz Joseph died in 1916.

Unfortunately there is no "what if" in history...

fitliker
30th Jun 2014, 19:18
Paris 1919 by Margaret Macmillan offered some interesting insights into the main cause of WW2.

Lonewolf_50
30th Jun 2014, 19:54
If someone assassinates the Crown Prince of a certain place full of more than average amounts of sand and oil, the world might be treated to "Ummah War I," well worth watching on the telly but not quite as fun if one is in the area of conflict. :eek:

WIth both sides yelling "Allah Akhbar!" at the top of their lungs, it would be sporting, to say the least.

Yes, wishful thinking ...

obgraham
30th Jun 2014, 20:19
What do you mean bythe European powers lost the peace when the Treaty of Versailles was signed.(Not trying to speak for Con, he can manage quite well.)

My reading of the Treaty of Versailles proceedings is that Wilson was the moderate there. His "14 Points" manifesto wasn't taken very seriously. The French pushed for severe reparations, and were eventually successful. Wilson signed the treaty, because he was there, but it was never ratified by the US, and he failed to convince Congress and the American people to accept his ideas on resolving the conflict.

Mac the Knife
30th Jun 2014, 20:29
If you want it all, in every exquisite historico-political detail (but highly readable) then Sean McMeekin's recent "July 1914 - Countdown To War" is the :-

Mac

:cool:

And then you've finished that read Barbara Tuchman's 1963 classic "The Guns of August - The first month of the 1st World War", which takes the story a bit further, and then Holger Herwig's "The Marne - 1914" and then....

vaqueroaero
7th Jul 2014, 23:53
The gravestones of two of my great uncles. Take a look at the dates that they died, a month apart and Benjamin only a few days before the end. They so very nearly made it. I often wonder how life may have been different from a family perspective if they had both lived.

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e81/Vaqueroaero/imagejpg2_zpscdc9a70e.jpg

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e81/Vaqueroaero/imagejpg1_zps354750a6.jpg (http://s37.photobucket.com/user/Vaqueroaero/media/imagejpg1_zps354750a6.jpg.html)

We have a letter at home from one of them written to my grandfather as he headed off to boarding school. It is headed 'Somewhere in France' and basically tells him to keep a stiff upper lip and to not cry and be a man about it all.