Russia Warns Sweden and Finland Against NATO Membership

[ORAC]

Russia Warns Sweden and Finland Against NATO Membership (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140612/DEFREG01/306120040/Russia-Warns-Sweden-Finland-Against-NATO-Membership)

HELSINKI — Finland and Sweden have both rejected claims, made by a senior Russian adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, that “Russophobia” is pushing the two non-aligned Nordic states “dangerously closer” to NATO. Finnish officials described the “Russophobia” claim, made by Putin’s senior political adviser, Sergei Markov, as “unfounded” and “alarmist,” while Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said the embedded meaning in Markov’s remarks smacked of a return by Russia to old school “Cold War intimidation.”

“Finland should think of the consequences, if it ponders joining NATO. It must ask could joining start World War III? Anti-Semitism started World War II. Russophobia can start a third world war. Finland is one of the most Russophobic countries in Europe, after Sweden, Poland and the Baltic countries,” said Markov in interviews with Swedish and Finnish media. NATO, said Markov, had no positive role to play in European defense as it is, according to the political adviser, “an organization virtually controlled by the United States.” Similarly, Markov described the European Union, and its 28 member states, as “colonies of the US” with no truly independent security or political policies...............

[rh200]

Standard divide and conquer rules, intimidation and fear by a has been country trying to revive old glory because it hasn't got what it takes to evolve.

[Heathrow Harry]

If Sweden and Finland stayed out of NATO 1948-1990 why would they want to join now?

things were a hell of a lot worse 25+ years ago

[Martin the Martian]

And if Finland really is 'Russophobic', I wonder just why that might be?

Ooh, let me see now...

[AAKEE]

At least the discussion was dead in Sweden in the former Days. Now politicians talk about it quite often. I think there is a misunderstanding about making the costs going down if joining NATO.
...And that there has been so much cutdowns that there really isnt that much left and ppl starting to feel unsafe.

[Heathrow Harry]

"And if Finland really is 'Russophobic', I wonder just why that might be?

Ooh, let me see now..."

Actually during and after the Cold War Finland did pretty well out of the USSR & Russia - they played the Hong Kong role - amazing how much western goods were "sold" in Finland...

And an awful lot of Finns speak Russian

[ORAC]

Maybe we ought to start calling Putin and his advisors "The Borg"...

[The Helpful Stacker]

Given Russia's history with regards to their neighbours is it any wonder that folks with such a country on their doorstep are a little Russophobic?

[Willard Whyte]

Perhaps (a perceived) reduced risk of nuclear war leads to enhanced risk of conventional war?

[TomJoad]

“Finland should think of the consequences, if it ponders joining NATO. It must ask could joining start World War III? Anti-Semitism started World War II. Russophobia can start a third world war.


I always imagined that they were already members! Anyway as for the reason for the start of WWII not my understanding of history. I think we are long way off from World War III even with events in Ukraine. But if we do, God forbid, even move close to aggression between Russia and the West then Russia herself must surely been seen as the aggressor. What is it with that country, the rest of the world has moved, even China is looking forward not back.

Tom

[Pontius Navigator]

What is it with that country, the rest of the world has moved, even China is looking forward not back.

Nervous? Lots of porous space, megalomaniacs trying to capture Moscow. Most of the western world invaded in 1919. Surrounded in the cold war. Huge loss of traditional territories post-cold war. Add in economy and you can understand them a bit more.

[NutLoose]

The words "blow me" come to mind, but that I suppose is not really a diplomatic response to send to Putin

[Basil]

And an awful lot of Finns speak Russian
Recollect, on first visit to Helsinki in about 1963, noting that people who spoke an arcane language like Finnish, also spoke Swedish and English. Respect! :ok:

[rh200]

The words "blow me" come to mind, but that I suppose is not really a diplomatic response to send to Putin

Actually there the kind of words he understands, diplomatic responses are a laugh to Putin.

Huge loss of traditional territories post-cold war. Add in economy and you can understand them a bit more.

As someone said, even China is looking forward, and frankly it looks like their even more evolved as a country than Russia. Though I'm not convinced that they have gone past the economic expansion by force method yet. I think it really depends on how long the Yanks can keep it together.

The fact that Russia is warning people of dire consequence if joining, is pure and simple stand over tactics, terror and fear, some thing the Russians are a natural at.

Putin is not an idiot, neither are the other senior Russian advisors, they know all well NATO is just a defense pact, the only threat from the west is countries that join, prosper. (well sort of prosper, a bit like three steps forward, two back)

[finncapt]

Living in Finland and being married to a Finn, perhaps I can give my opinion.

The matter of NATO membership is discussed continuously here.

In the last few years Finland has been moving to the right.

At the moment, the President and the strongest party (Kokoomus - similar to the UK Conservatives) lean toward joining NATO.

Historically the SDP has run the government and held the presidency.

They traditionally played both sides and recently it has been suggested that, at least one, ex President was too close to the Russians.

Together with the centre and left parties they are against joining NATO.

The other main party is the True Finns (akin to UKIP), they are rising in popularity because of their charismatic (for want of a better word) leader Timo Soini.

Like many of their policies I am not sure whether they are for or against NATO membership - they seem to be hedging their bets.

Unless things change they and the right will be the main, governing, parties after the next election (2015?) - the Socialist parties are waning in popularity.

People are getting fed up with more taxes to fund social handouts and Southern Europeans (it's all south of Finland!!).

Will Finland join NATO - probably not unless Sweden decides to join (my view).

The Finns I know do not trust the Russians, both collectively and individually.

They see them as bullies in the world.

Burglaries, car stealing etc - it must have been a Russian!!

Finns perceive them as buying up all the summer cottages.

Likewise, most Finns I know cannot understand why the US, and to a lesser extent the EU countries, seem to insist on getting involved in "other peoples wars".

Basil

In my view not many Finns speak Russian.

Swedish (Finland's second official language - about 6% speak Swedish as their mother language and go to Swedish speaking schools) is (was until last year?) compulsory in all Finnish schools.

Most people speak English, having learnt it at school, and a few of the older generation can speak German (hang over from WW2).

[Ronald Reagan]

Very interesting post finncapt.


I would think the best outcome for both Finland and Sweden would be not to join NATO as this will wreck their relationship with Russia. But to in effect stay neutral and work with both sides. They did this so well in the cold war and faced down the mighty USSR. One would think in this modern age that reaching an understanding with modern Russia would be far easier.
I am really not a fan of NATO and its member states often pointless wars.

[Capetonian]

I would think the best outcome for both Finland and Sweden would be not to join NATO as this will wreck their relationship with Russia. Probably not as much as being invaded by Russia though, and there is a precedent in history for Russia annexing part of Finland, and in more recent history of Putin doing everything he can to recreate the Russian/Soviet empire. It is hardly surprising that the Finns (and Russia's other neighbours) do not trust the Russians with Putin in charge.

He is a danger to world peace and although I too am opposed in principle to blocs such as NATO, if I lived in Finland I would be very concerned about security.

[Ronald Reagan]

Capetonian, I would say the greatest threat to world peace would be the US government blundering around the world from one disaster to another. (Just look at Iraq and Libya right now)
I think in this day and age the idea of Russia invading Finland or Sweden is very unlikely. If they are worried simply keep and maintain a strong independent military of their own. Putin really is not so bad, he was forced into the actions he took in Ukraine by the western back coup. What exactly did western leaders expect him to do. He also managed to prevent a western backed war in Syria that would have helped Isis and other terrorists.

[Capetonian]

Ronald Reagan : I completely agree with you, Obama is the greatest danger by far to world peace but Putin's meddling is likely to provoke US intervention, which is why he is a danger, even if only as a catalyst.

Agree too that that Russian invasion of Finland is unlikely, although it does have territorial claims, and Sweden even less likely, but there a risk of them invading ex USSR territories who don't toe their line.

[finncapt]

I'm interested to know what territorial claims Russia would have on Finland.

As far as I am aware, it is the other way round and Finland could arguably have territorial claims against Russia.

Several parts of Finland were ceded to the Russians at the Moscow peace treaty in 1940 (which ended the Winter War 1939 - 40) and Finns would argue that they wanted those parts back.

I think after WW2 there may have been more territory ceded to Russia but am not certain.

From time to time various groups call for the parts of Karelia which were ceded to be returned.

The general consensus, and the government line, is that this is not going to happen.

One of the things which always amuses me, is that Russians who want to travel from, say, St. Petersburg to Murmansk find it easier to use Finnish roads - roads in Finland go south to north whereas in Russia they radiate from Moscow - making that journey difficult within Russia.

[ian16th]

And an awful lot of Finns speak Russian Its so much easier that their own language! :*

It is the only place where I have been handed a menu that was utterly meaningless.

Fortunately I had an English speaking Finnish companion to translate it.

[ORAC]

I'm interested to know what territorial claims Russia would have on Finland.

Vladimir Putin ‘wants to regain Finland’ for Russia, adviser says (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wants-to-regain-finland-for-russia-adviser-says-9224273.html)

After annexing Crimea and with troops massed on the border of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will not stop trying to expand Russia until he has “conquered” Belarus, the Baltic states and Finland, one of his closest former advisers has said.

According to Andrej Illarionov, the President’s chief economic adviser from 2000 to 2005, Mr Putin seeks to create “historical justice” with a return to the days of the last Tsar, Nicholas II, and the Soviet Union under Stalin. Speaking to the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, Mr Illarionov warned that Russia will argue that the granting of independence to Finland in 1917 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Declaration_of_Independence) was an act of “treason against national interests”.

“Putin’s view is that he protects what belongs to him and his predecessors,” Mr Illarionov said.........

[Capetonian]

finncapt : I don't know ...... but some years ago I was sailing on the Saimaa Lakes and somewhere near Imatra, which is right on the border (I know you know that but others may not!), got chatting to some Finnish people and they told us that the Russians claimed that part of Finland (is that Karelia?) as theirs.

Finland's past has given rise to some rousing patriotic music by Jean Sibelius, one of my favourite composers.

L6P3cIJHWjwIronically, conducted by a Russky.

adKwG9ZuzFw

[finncapt]

Yes, that area is part of Karelia.

You could be right that the Russians want the Finnish bit but the Finns talk, probably many years ago, of the Russians trying to do a deal with the Finns whereby they would sell back the bits they already had - when they needed hard currency?

Sadly? for the Finns the price was too high.

If the Russian intention is to go back to the Tsarist borders then you are right and I think that would cause, certainly a cold war type standoff and possibly a confontation - smacks of Germany invading Czechoslovakia.

In simple terms, at the time of the Russian revolution, the whites won in Finland (it was an autonomous part of the Russian empire) and declared independence.

[Herod]

What scares me is that, although Hitler and Czechoslovakia is used to explain Crimea, when Hitler made his move, the world didn't have nuclear weapons. Mutually Assured Destruction worked during the Cold War, when the threat was USSR against the West, but this is a new scenario. We are unlikely to use conventional force against Russia (could we?), to defend sections of a country, and our only other option is nuclear. So, Putin "liberates" countries a bit at a time. What then?

[Ronald Reagan]

Herod, if they are places like Crimea or Eastern Ukraine which are historically part of Russia then let him have them. Most of the lines on a map do not mean all that much. As long as they do not get designs on all of western Europe ie anymore territory than they had in the Cold War I won't worry to much. Right now they don't seem bothered about former Warsaw Pact nations but more former Soviet Republics. I would turn a blind eye to that. None of our business and not worth all nuclear war and thus destroying all life on Earth. Maybe if NATO had not been pushed right up to their borders they would not have been so keen to push back! I would like to see a reverse in direction to all of our defence cuts in recent years though. Right now we in Britain must be more weak than we have ever been before. I would rather deal from a position of strength ie peace through strength. Just base the military here at home and not close to Russia!

[finncapt]

I must say I am of a similar opinion to RR, inasmuch as I agree that Putin seems more interested in the ex Soviet Republics.

These are also the areas where significant numbers of people are ethnic (if that's the right word) Russians.

It may be that all this "sabre rattling" is to provide a diversion from any problems he may have with the his domestic political situation.

Interestingly, Finland has a new Prime Minister from today (Kokoomus - Right party) and he, I understand, is a NATO leaner (my wife is away, visiting her grandchildren, so I may have got the translation wrong).

[t43562]

No nation is "all nice" but I met a lot of very very decent Finns when I worked for Nokia. They make the world better and the corporate culture at Nokia was extremely positive, natural, friendly and responsible. It had other problems but it was infinitely less rapacious than what I was used to before and have experienced since. So bugger Putain and up with the Finns.

We ought to care about every bit of land he sucks in - how else did Russia become so large but by sucking in more and more? Are we to wait till he's at our doorstep?

[Herod]

First they came for the Gypsies, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Gypsy.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the disabled, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not disabled.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

As true now as it ever was.

[Wander00]

Herod - should be on a notice in every parliament world wide

[Whenurhappy]

Sweden has a very good working relationship with NATO - it has been a troop contributing nation for a numbe rof operationsand took a very active part in the Libyan Air Campaign. It is, in fact, a member in all but name, but of course, does not have the collective defence that is afforded by Washington Treaty Art. 5. Arguably, Russia's belligerancy has increased domestic calls for applying for NATO membership.

[peter we]

Herod, if they are places like Crimea or Eastern Ukraine which are historically part of Russia then let him have them.

75% of the population in Eastern Ukraine do not want to be part of Russia or some other 'independent' state.

The 'pro-Russia rebels' are mainly Russian citizens, as the body count of Russian dead at the airport attack attests.

The leader of the Russian insurgents has admitted they are mostly Russia fighters, he justifies by saying that part of Russia has always been Russian, not Ukraine.

There is no sign of American involvement, weapons or dead. If they were involved you'd expect a lot more success...

[Ronald Reagan]

Peter, the Russians are there to protect the people of East Ukraine from the maniacs who rose up in Kiev. They are liberators. The people of the east will likely have a far better future as part of Russia anyhow.
My friends in the east of Ukraine are very angry about the actions of Kiev and want nothing more to do with them.


If American troops were involved Peter maybe Kiev would have been liberated by the Russians already ;)

[henra]

75% of the population in Eastern Ukraine do not want to be part of Russia or some other 'independent' state.


Could you be so kind an provide a (at least ever so slightly trust worthy) source for that claim. It seems so counter- intuitive (also looking at the fact that the pro Russian Yanukovich had been elected my a majority back in the last elections).
I'm starting to wonder how that happened with a clearly anti- Russian Western Ukraine.
Now that we learned from you that Eastern Ukraine (and crimea?) are also majority anti- Russian I'm scratching my head a bit.

While Putin clearly got carried away in this case (Why does he motivate Sweden and Finland even more to join NATO by making such implicit threats? Sometimes I'm really wondering if he started drinking or is it desperation?).

That said I have the impression some here also got carried away a bit.
Putins tactics used so far are only suitable in countries/regions with major/majority Russian population. In a completely foreign Country this wouldn't work. He would have to use massive regular Military and heavy equipment and invade directly/openly and Keep a massive Invasion force continuously in place. That is something completely different from what he did so far and it is questionable if the Russian Military is capable of doing that on a sustainable basis. Russia's conventional Military is a tiny fraction of that of the former SU. (Unlike the nuclear Arsenal. That is still massive)
What he has been doing so far was more of arsonist nature. Not so much conquerer.

[rh200]

Peter, the Russians are there to protect the people of East Ukraine from the maniacs who rose up in Kiev.

Actually in most of the troubles it seems like its the pro Ukrainians who get beaten a soon as they come out of hiding. As reported numerous times by independent reporters.

Could you be so kind an provide a (at least ever so slightly trust worthy) source for that claim. It seems so counter- intuitive (also looking at the fact that the pro Russian Yanukovich had been elected my a majority back in the last elections).

Actually its regarded as common knowledge, even in the Crimea it wasn't regarded as a slam dunk for all sorts of reasons.


Most polls (credible ones), have shown the east do not want to be part of Russia. The bloke running Crimea and his party only got a couple of percent at the last credible election.

As for why they got a pro Russian president, there's no mystery in that, its the same as why some other country's can get governments they don't want. As with whats common when you have a sh!t load of contenders, the one who can muster the biggest block wins.

So in this case, the pro western ones couldn't put their differences aside and go for a single candidate. You get the same in Egypt, and some European countrys. Sometimes theres a huge veiw on the public side towards one way, but their cannidates just squabble against one another and hence loose.

[Stanwell]

RR,
I have a number of Russian-Ukrainian friends (their families are in Ukraine) and, in discussions with them, they are saying pretty much what rh200 has just posted.


Believe nothing you read/hear in the media and only half of what you actually see.

[Ronald Reagan]

My Ukrainian friends tell me different, well the ones in the east. The one in Kiev thinks much more differently. It almost feels like its two nations in one.


I have no doubt the vast majority of people in places like Crimea want to be with Russia. The place was part of Russia until the 1950s. Older people are going to remember those times and are angry they were given away by the Soviet leadership to Ukraine. My friends in Kharkiv and Donetsk are very envious of the people of Crimea now and wish they and their regions could join them. They tolerated Kiev while they had an eastern/Russian leaning President but now they are very unhappy about the situation and the coup in Kiev which they think Yanokovych should have done more to put down.
My Kiev friend again thinks differently.
But imagine how you/I would feel if a democratically elected leader that we supported along with most of the people in our region only to find he gets ousted in a coup backed by other nations and mainly involving people from other regions. Its no wonder separatism has taken hold in these parts of the country. It would likely be even more widespread if not so harshly put down by the military and regime security forces.

[ORAC]

Really? Three independent polls by 3 different polling organisations would tend to indicate otherwise....

Pew Research Global: Despite Concerns about Governance, Ukrainians Want to Remain One Country (http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/)

Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization: Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine (http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2014%20April%205%20IRI%20Public%20Opinion%20Survey%20of%20Uk raine,%20March%2014-26,%202014.pdf)

Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation: How relations between Ukraine and Russia should look like? Public opinion polls’ results (http://dif.org.ua/en/events/ukrainieyu-ne-hochut.htm)

[brickhistory]

https://sp1.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.607992078805436685&pid=15.1

Forget about it, RR's on a roll...

[Ronald Reagan]

Those figures in no way compare with what my eastern Ukrainian friends have told me about their views and those of their family and friends.


I guess many of you guys are cold war warriors. The trouble is guys the cold war is over. Its no good pretending the big bad Soviet Union/sorry Russian Federation is going to come and get us. There always has to be an enemy, something to keep the sheep scared. In reality they should be far more scared of the terrorists that our own actions have unleashed upon the middle east and likely in future coming to a country near you! So arguably the greatest threat we all face in the west is one caused by the incompetent actions of our own leaders!

[West Coast]

Those figures in no way compare with what my eastern Ukrainian friends have told me about their views and those of their family and friends.

I hope you don't think surveying your friends offers you definitive proof despite you're attempt to frame it as such.

[Ronald Reagan]

I remember the polls that said Romney could win the election in the US or that one candidate would win the popular vote and another the electoral college in 2012. But in the end rather amazingly a large majority of the American people elected their hero Obama back into the White House.

[West Coast]

Same could be said of your poll of your friends who claim to want to join Vlad the invader as part of Russia.

[Ronald Reagan]

But West Coast, its really open to debate if he is an invader at all. He seems to be only taking back places which were/are part of Russia but through some quirk of fate have ended up on the wrong side of a line on the map.


But if you want to look at invaders you should look at our own actions such as in Iraq! Now that was an invasion with a truly terrible outcome!

[brickhistory]

He seems to be only taking back places which were/are part of Russia but through some quirk of fate have ended up on the wrong side of a line on the map.

Lines agreed to by the various countries involved. The 28 reinforced battalions he rolled up to the Ukraine border were just tourists like the ones that actually killed others, no doubt.

So do those inconvenient lines extend to other disputed territories and, if so, how far back can those claims extend?

Certainly, as you brought it up, the mess in the Middle East was caused by the West, British, mostly, with French assistance, drawing lines on a sand map.

Will the claims to the French Channel Ports be re-examined?

Can Norway argue the case for the Shetlands?

Care to have another go at re-claiming the 13 American colonies?

But I understand. It is all our, the West in general, and America in particular, fault.

Sorry. We'll give it back. You sort it out.

[West Coast]

But West Coast, its really open to debate if he is an invader at all.

No it's not.

[henra]

Really? Three independent polls by 3 different polling organisations would tend to indicate otherwise....


Did you consider which background these institutions have. Do you really consider them completely neutral ?

'I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself' comes to mind...

Not saying that People in Eastern Ukraine really support Putin's messing with Ukraine, but I don't like being fooled by institutions with an Agenda or at least a bias.
Since I disdain the fervor with which the Russian population seems to believe their Media in this affair I try to avoid doing the same with our own Media.

And then even from these statistics I can read a huge discrepancy between the general political views of Eastern Ukraine vs. Western Ukraine. In reality I'm really wondering what keeps this thing together?

And reading about the Level of hatred that has developped between pro Russian and pro Western population I really have some difficulties seeing a peaceful and united Ukraine in the medium term. Will have to get worse before getting better, I'm afraid.

[HTB]

Don't talk to me about invaders, the memory of the Norman B'stard William still hangs like a dark cloud over our once fair and pleasant Saxon land. Laying waste to great swathes of the country to subjugate the peaceful agrarian populace with overbearing military force because he believed he was promised the crown by a dying old man (they probably didn't even speak the same language).

The differences between 11th C and now are: location, language and weaponry (and size of army).

Mister B

[melmothtw]

The differences between 11th C and now are: location, language and weaponry (and size of army).


And the rule of international law.

[rh200]

But West Coast, its really open to debate if he is an invader at all. He seems to be only taking back places which were/are part of Russia but through some quirk of fate have ended up on the wrong side of a line on the map.

Of course its an invasion, the parts where given away by the authorities at the time and the country as is recognized under law. The majority of said country, and also the particular parts don't want Russia's help.

But if you want to look at invaders you should look at our own actions such as in Iraq!


Yes it was an invasion, carried out with various excuses to make it legal under international law. On top of that the vast majority of that country s recognised under international law (60% Shia, 20% Kurd) wanted Saddam and his brutal government gone.

Now that was an invasion with a truly terrible outcome!

No it was a fantastic outcome that was going ahead far better than I expected. The country was stumbling along nicely trying to find its feet in an democratic environment. That was till some d!ckhead got into the white house and f@#cked it all up.

This was not helped by all the people, who for all intents and purposes are terrorist sympathizers, or could accused of giving aid and comfort to the enemy, by wishing that the extreme minority should be running the country.

[Ronald Reagan]

rh200, Iraq going well, ha ha ha! Don't make me laugh. Two of my army friends who both served there told me they thought the whole thing was nothing but a total waste of time and that our actions made things far worse. In their words it was a war we should have never carried out.
It was not going well when we were there and has fallen apart more since we left. Not exactly as if we would want to keep forces there forever is it! That's the only reason the so called Afghan government will continue due to some US forces remaining, if they ever leave it will all fall apart to.
Compared to what we did in Iraq what Putin has done in Ukraine is nothing and I mean nothing! You really need to look at things more carefully than you currently do.

[t43562]

Polls are quite a lot more believable than some self-selected set of friends of a person with a particular world view. Would that person have many friends that disagree with them anyhow? Where's the greater bias likely to be? This has been said before of course.

[rh200]

Compared to what we did in Iraq

What exactly is that Ronald, free 80% of the population? I suppose you would feel that way about Ukraine as suppressing the majority with violence seems to be what your happy with.

[melmothtw]

It's curious that you appear to have 'friends' in every part of the world up for discussion here Ronald, and that they all endorse your own particular viewpoints.

I've no doubt that if I were to offer some comment on Putin's military build-up in the Far North, for instance, you would retort that you have Eskimo friends who positively welcome Russian bomber overflights.

[Ronald Reagan]

Free the population?! You mean remove the things that protected the majority of the population such as the state itself, the military and security forces, smash huge amounts of their infrastructure, kill loads of people, likely in the hundreds of thousands or higher and all of this results in the strengthening of Al Qaeda like groups who were the exact enemy the war on terror was supposed to be fighting against! Saddam would have been able to fight them off but we removed him, Assad seems to be holding his own but western leaders wanted to remove him to. Similar groups exist in Libya thanks to us, Gaddafi would have been able to destroy such groups had we not attacked and removed him. Western foreign policy seems to lurch from one disaster to another.
The war on terror has been a total failure actually helping and spreading the groups it was supposed to destroy!

[Ronald Reagan]

Mel, more and more people can see through the lies of the western elite. The US government and its collection of western puppet regimes/governments which is sadly what they/we have become.

[melmothtw]

Can't argue with you on the gist of that Ronald. The difference though is that most of us here can see that our leaders are far from perfect and we question and criticise their (in)actions, whereas your arguments lack credibility as you seem to slavishly applaud and cheer-on Putin regardless of his actions.

[Just This Once...]

It's curious that you appear to have 'friends' in every part of the world up for discussion here Ronald, and that they all endorse your own particular viewpoints.

I've no doubt that if I were to offer some comment on Putin's military build-up in the Far North, for instance, you would retort that you have Eskimo friends who positively welcome Russian bomber overflights.

Mel, I would not bother arguing with RR even if you have a very valid point. He is not military aircrew or a 'backroom' enabler and seems to use the mil forum to express his erratic political views, indulge in fantasy subjects or even play fantasy friends. He is not worth your time; indeed, he only seeks to waste it.

:ok:

[melmothtw]

Yes, against my better judgement I do keep biting. Must resist....

[t43562]

Last time I looked, Iraq had not been added to the UK or become the next US state so I fail to see the comparison between it and Crimea.

The world has listened to Russian bull**** for many decades, but you know what, I don't read about the millions of people leaving their home countries to try to make better lives in Russia.

[Ronald Reagan]

t43562, many people I would say are even more sick of the BS that comes from the White House!


Crimea was part of Russia until the 1950s, now they are again. It seems right, fair and just. The west attacking Iraq though, not much right or just about that.


Putin is not a saint for sure, but he is a highly intelligent and skilled leader who does not seem to go from one disaster to another like our leaders. Plus he was most good at preventing the west from attacking Syria. Western leaders (Washington) need someone to stand up to them, now the world has Putin's Russia and the People's Republic of China!

[Thomas coupling]

Before we get into slagging off Putin, remember this:
In our lifetime, everything the West [and by "the West" I mean the US and its coat tail dragger - UK] has been embroiled in - has spectacularly failed:
IRAQ - Saddam was a tyrant, but the bloodshedding that is happening now makes his regime look like the doctrine of a WI committee.
EGYPT - The US pumps (pumped) 10 BILLION dollars a year into insuring its authority in that state. To what end now? Disaster. 200 of the previous government are now sentenced to death?? Thousands of anti government protesters have been killed.
LIBYA - Don't make me laugh...................
Afghanistan - 4000 dead proud americans - dead. For what?

And the West has the gall to accuse Putin of aggression????
A totally and irefutably undeniable illegal uprising by a bunch of unruly protestors against a democratically elected government in Kiev is completely overlooked by the West. Putin (the next door neighbour) tries to assert some kind of law and order and the US and the EU scream blue murder.
The US is as much a danger to world peace than any two bit operation in the middle east or Russia will ever be - IMO.
I hope and pray China who overtook the US last month on an economic output perspective) will wrestle the mantle of THE world's superpower and put it to much better foreign policy use than ever the US/EU can and have done.

There is a scintila of light in the UK lately: Cameron was put in his place by the Parliament over Syria. William Hague has categorically said that the UK will NOT get involved militarily in the ISIS debacle The tide HAS turned (I hope) in the UK and the British Public have shouted from the rooftops that enough is enough w.r.t. foreign policy. We are TIRED (and INCAPABLE) of interfering in other peoples business. Long may it last.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/marc-thiessen-obamas-iraq-disaster/2014/06/16/7151391e-f55b-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.html

[melmothtw]

In our lifetime, everything the West [and by "the West" I mean the US and its coat tail dragger - UK] has been embroiled in - has spectacularly failed:


How old are you TC? I'm not that old, and yet in my lifetime I can cite the list below as being anything other that spectactular failures...

Falklands
Gulf War 1
Kosovo
Sierra Leone

And they're just the ones that come instantly to mind....

[Not_a_boffin]

I hope and pray China who overtook the US last month on an economic output perspective) will wrestle the mantle of THE world's superpower and put it to much better foreign policy use than ever the US/EU can and have done.


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2009/3/20/1237537850354/Tiananmen-Square-protesto-001.jpg

Yep. Good luck with that.....

[t43562]

The US looks after its own citizens and everyone knows it. The rest of them don't. Consider the morality of that.

The reason you're feeling "sick" of western propaganda is probably because you haven't sampled the other kinds that are available.

[Ronald Reagan]

Mel, we should not have got involved with many of those wars.
Gulf War 1 only happened as the US wanted Saddam to invade Kuwait, the perfect excuse to get large numbers of US military forces into the region on a permanent basis.
The Falklands would not have been taken if we had kept enough forces there in the first place to deter aggression. Consider how many lives and ships it cost to retake them!
As for Balkans, it was all much better when it was Yugoslavia. Such a shame it all broke apart. Again the hand of the west could be found in that to!
The same with Ukraine right now, the hand of the west agitating and causing problems yet again!

[The Helpful Stacker]

As for Balkans, it was all much better when it was Yugoslavia. Such a shame it all broke apart. Again the hand of the west could be found in that to!

'The West' gave Tito gangrene? Oh the humanity! !

:ugh:

[West Coast]

Mel

One of our regulars here pointed out striking similarities between Ronald Reagan and a poster on another website that's acknowledged to living in Russia.

[melmothtw]

So 'Cornwall' is a cunning disguise eh...?

[West Coast]

If you're not cheating, you're not trying might be another way of viewing it.

[Thomas coupling]

Memothtw: Sorry I don't remember the US being involved in the Malvinas, Balkans or Sierra Leone to any great degree :E:E
So there wasn't the opportunity to bug g er it all up.

Simple question to anyone: Why can't we (the UK) follow the ideals of countries like:

Sweden
Norway
Switzerland
Australia
N Zealand
Brazil

et al.

Healthy, wealthy, wise nations that are just quietly getting on with life and concentrating on making it a better country to live in than all these other warring nations?
Why do the likes of:

The EU
Russia
Middle East
etc

insist on topping up their Testosterone levels every couple of years and rocking the global boat?

[t43562]

Sweden (Afghanistan)
Norway (Libya, Afghanistan)
- peaceful vikings?

Switzerland
- safety in holding onto the bad guys' cash?

- Australia
Afghanistan?
Vietnam?

N Zealand
- Russia a long way away?

Brazil
- ditto?

Countries only exist because they were, at some time, prepared to fight.

[Archimedes]

For Australia you can also add- Iraq, 2003 and East Timor before that.

New Zealand - Vietnam and Afghanistan (I don't think Willie Apiata VC and the three other NZSAS chaps decorated for the same action for which the VC was awarded were there without government knowledge).

And although very much peace-keeping, the Brazilians were invoved in both Haiti (OK, regional interst) and Timor (er...)

And as for the US not being in the Balkans - Camp Bondsteel? Deliberate Force? Dayton Accords? Allied Force? SFOR?

[henra]

No it was a fantastic outcome that was going ahead far better than I expected.

If that was a fantastic outcome I wouldn't want to see a good one, let alone a bad one.... :}

[henra]

Sweden (Afghanistan)
Norway (Libya, Afghanistan)
- peaceful vikings?

You do have to admit, it wasn't their idea. Plus I would consider it a minor involvement. Would have happened totally unchanged w/o the Swedes


N Zealand
- Russia a long way away?

Brazil
- ditto?


Uhhh hum....


Countries only exist because they were, at some time, prepared to fight.

...at a place thousands of kilometers away where 80% of the population couldn't draw up on a map where that country is with an accuracy of better than 2000km ???

[TEEEJ]

TC,
No US involvement in the Balkans? Where do you think USAF F-15 and F-16 pilots got their most recent air-to-air kills?

Operation Deliberate Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deliberate_Force)

Operation Deny Flight - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deny_Flight)

NATO bombing of Yugoslavia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia)

Norway also took part in the Balkan operations.

Sweden also participated in Libya. They flew reconnaissance and combat air patrols with SAAB Gripens.

Swedish Gripens deliver 37% of Libyan reconnaissance reports | defenceWeb (http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17886:swedish-gripens-deliver-37-of-libyan-reconnaissance-reports&catid=35:Aerospace&Itemid=107)

Australia - Iraq 2003

Australian contribution to the 2003 invasion of Iraq - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_contribution_to_the_2003_invasion_of_Iraq)

[West Coast]

Secret SAS Squadron Sent To Spy in Africa (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/secret-sas-squadron-sent-to-spy-in-africa-20120312-1uwjs.html)

Another Aussie excursion. Seems the huggies are all up in arms in Oz. Seems a good idea to me to have top notch troops on the ground becoming famiar with the territory they may fight in.

The validity of Mr Coupling's argument is dropping faster than dresses on prom night.

[500N]

West coast

I think if the public knew just what and where they went they would be surprised.

The paper was an idiot for publishing it anyway.

Edit
You were right, they were up in arms about it when it came out.
The media also highlighted a training base which although known about is not highlighted.

[West Coast]

Given the lawless nature of the regions I suspect they're operating, I wish them well. Despite the notional perfect world the fluffies live in, there's a need to have folks like them in country.

[rh200]

If that was a fantastic outcome I wouldn't want to see a good one, let alone a bad one....

You probably need to do some math and comparisons to demographics and social evolution in relation time frames and change.

Simple question to anyone: Why can't we (the UK) follow the ideals of countries like:

Because their bludger's and live off the coattails who take the brunt of whats inevitable. I have taken Aus out of your list of nice huggy fluffy countries by the way:p

Again you all need to look at basic social interaction, what do you think, if the Yanks was to pull back, we would come together and sing kumbaya my lord.

There will always be some one trying to be top dog, and force their will on others, its nature. The fact that the Yanks have taken the burden for so long is mind boggling. Frankly the alternative is frighting.

[ORAC]

Swedish Party's U-turn Reignites NATO Membership Question (http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/09/13/swedish-partys-u-turn-reignites-nato-membership-question/71967342/)

HELSINKI — A proposal from Sweden's NATO-skeptic Center Party that the country should join the alliance in conjunction with non-aligned neighbor Finland has reignited the NATO debate in Sweden. The proposal, made in a joint statement by Center Party leader Annie Lööf with defense and foreign affairs spokesmen Kerstin Lundgren and Daniel Bäckström, will be put to the party’s annual conference in Falun at the end of September.

"It would be natural that part of our deepening [defense] cooperation with Finland will also involve working together to seek membership in NATO," according to the statement. "We believe such a course would not only strengthen the ability of our two countries to contribute to the stability and security in our immediate area, but also in international security efforts."

The Center’s proposal contains three core conditions that will be presented at the party’s convention — that Sweden applies for NATO membership jointly with Finland; that membership is contingent on NATO troops or nuclear weapons not being stationed permanently in Sweden; and that NATO agrees to work with Sweden to create a Nordic nuclear-free zone. "Our conditions are reasonable. Norway’s membership agreement with NATO included stipulations on no permanent troops or nuclear weapons," Bäckström said.

If Finland and Sweden joined NATO concurrently, said Lööf, it would mean that all Nordic states, including Norway, Denmark and Iceland, would be NATO members. "This would strengthen the Nordic voice on global foreign and security issues, and provide us with more opportunities to jointly influence NATO's future development," Lööf said.

Russia is staunchly opposed to Finland or Sweden joining NATO. In June, Viktor Tatarintsev, Russia's ambassador to Sweden, warned that both countries could become the subject of Russian "countermeasures" if they abandoned their non-aligned status.

"Sweden’s security is best built in cooperation with others," Bäckström said. "The NATO issue is more in the limelight this year because the security climate has changed. We do not believe that our membership in NATO would heighten a potential threat from Russia. More countries have joined NATO in recent years. It is natural for Sweden to want to join the alliance."

The pivotal shift in the Center’s view of NATO is driven by a more militaristic and threatening Russia. The Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea has changed the security landscape for all Nordic and Baltic governments in the region.

The Center’s policy reversal on NATO could prove a tide-turning moment, said Tomas Frings, a Berlin-based political analyst. "The Center and the Christian Democrats were the two most NATO-skeptic parties in the center-right alliance government led by then-Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt," Frings said. "They effectively blocked the natural desire of the Moderates and the Liberals to move Sweden closer to NATO membership." As a united force, all four parties could pump up the pressure for membership and compel the Socialist-Green government to take a "formal position on the NATO question," Frings said................

[rh200]

Sounds better than the half witted EU army idea.:ok:

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder if Mr Putin and his team understand that if Russia were a better neighbor, Sweden and Finland -- who for decades were not NATO members -- would not be inclined to pursue membership in that organization.

Political decisions don't occur in a vacuum.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/28/sweden-bring-back-conscription-2018

Sweden plans to reintroduce compulsory military service from 2018, eight years after it was abolished. The Scandinavian country, which has not seen armed conflict on its territory in two centuries, ended conscription after it was deemed an unsatisfactory way of meeting the needs of a modern army.

“I hope that we are going to find a path to a more stable, robust and functional means of recruitment,” the defence minister, Peter Hultqvist, said.

The policy will affect Swedes born after 1999, according to a report by a former member of parliament for the defence ministry. The measure is expected to be adopted by parliament, subject to agreement between the leftist government and the centre-right opposition. Approximately 4,000 18-year-olds of both sexes are expected to be called up each year.

The move was “an intelligent proposal given that we have seen for a number of years now that volunteers are not sufficient to supply either the quality or quantity of soldiers” needed, Johan Osterberg, a researcher from the School for Advanced Defence Studies, told the news agency TT.

Sweden is not a Nato member but has signed the organisation’s partnership for peace programme launched in 1994 to develop military cooperation between Nato and non-member countries.

[GlobalNav]

I wonder if Mr Putin and his team understand that if Russia were a better neighbor, Sweden and Finland -- who for decades were not NATO members -- would not be inclined to pursue membership in that organization.

Political decisions don't occur in a vacuum.

Well, it appears that Mr Putin intends for Russia to be the kind of neighbor it has always been, perhaps even more severely, which could be hindered by expanded NATO membership.

It may also reflect a deeply seated paranoia in the Russian psyche predicated on the notion that strongly defended neighbors means a weaker Russia.

[t43562]

It may also reflect a deeply seated paranoia in the Russian psyche predicated on the notion that strongly defended neighbors means a weaker Russia.
Or that something that isn't part of Russia means a weaker Russia?

[dsc810]

Given that US secretary of State James Baker promised that Nato would not expand one inch Eastward - and the promptly did I'd say Putin has good reason to be aggrieved.
Perhaps in return he might be considering expanding Westwards....

[t43562]

Given that US secretary of State James Baker promised that Nato would not expand one inch Eastward - and the promptly did I'd say Putin has good reason to be aggrieved.
Perhaps in return he might be considering expanding Westwards....

You're using "To expand" to describe agreements on one hand and force on the other. It's an interesting arguing technique - there must be some latin name for it that I can quote to show off.

[Jazzyg]

Only just seen this discussion, but to add my observation from only a couple of years ago... I was part of a UK convoy that transited through Sweden to Norway which obviously took a few days.


There were at least three occasions whilst we stopped over night whereby I or one of the other driver party members were approached and slapped on the shoulder to be told .." Its good to see UK military on our roads.." and that they were seriously looking at wanting the government to apply to join NATO as they felt uncomfortable with the pesky ruskies.... As one individual stated...they felt very alone these days.

[Lonewolf_50]

Given that US secretary of State James Baker promised that Nato would not expand one inch Eastward - and the promptly did I'd say Putin has good reason to be aggrieved.
Perhaps in return he might be considering expanding Westwards....
For selected definitions of the term "promptly" perhaps. James Baker stopped being a cabinet officer in 1992/1993 when the administration changed. Now let's seen who was the first nation to be added to the 16 nations, and when did that happen? At the 1999 Washington summit (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Washington_summit), where Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic officially joined.

When did the opening moves get taken to explore new relationships with previous "Warsaw Pact" Nations? 1991ish.

These three nations had non-trivial negative experiences at the hands of the Russians/Soviets for about 50 years. Of course they wanted a change! They wanted to be part of the prosperous West. It wasn't just a matter of getting into NATO. It was a turning westward in general, to the EU, which they were free to do.

I was involved in a bunch of Partnership for Peace initiatives in the 90's that were well intentioned, and included the Russians. NATO "expansion" in 1996-1998 had to do with Spain joining the integrated command structure, but the 1997 Madrid Summit did see invitations to selected other nations to join if they liked.

None of the nations who wanted to join NATO were forced to.

More recently, the damned fool idea to get Georgia to join NATO was finally put to bed and axed. In each case the whole of the alliance had opportunity to accept or object. Depending upon whom was up, various NATO nations raised objections, and issues did or didn't get resolved.

All of the above said, it is my opinion that the 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia did serious damage to the US/NATO/Russian relationship that had been slowly improving during the 90's. Whatever good will was being built (the Russian brigade worked with the US 1AD in the northern sector in Bosnia doing peace keeping/peace enforcement) was undone.


Western rhetoric against the Russian response to the strife in Chechnya puzzled me then, and in retrospect was myopic in the extreme. It's more or less the same problem that rose up among Islamists elsewhere, and still poses a serious security problem for a variety of nations.


A concise illustration of the dysfunctional relationship between Russia and the US, and some NATO allies, is in Syria. A chance to work together is being taken in some cases (Kerry/Lavrov and chemical weapons) and squandered elsewhere. :ugh::ugh:

[GlobalNav]

Given that US secretary of State James Baker promised that Nato would not expand one inch Eastward - and the promptly did I'd say Putin has good reason to be aggrieved.
Perhaps in return he might be considering expanding Westwards....

Contrary to its past behavior, Russia does not hold sovereignty over its neighbors. Realistically, NATO membership by Sweden, Finland or any of the nearby states truly poses no military or security threat to the Soviet (oops Russian) state. This is only in the dangerous 20th century mindset of the Kremlin.

[Davef68]

You and I know that, but in the Russian psyche, the invasions from the West in the 19th and 20th Centuries still runs deep.

[A_Van]

Lonewolf 50:
You wrote: "... it is my opinion that the 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia did serious damage to the US/NATO/Russian relationship that had been slowly improving during the90's."

Totally agree.

As for NATO extension/expansion eastward, the buzz and irritation here is based on the solid promises that Germany gave to Gorbachev during the agreement to remove the (Berlin) wall in late 80's. SU agreed wit hits reunification and started withdrawing the troops back home, which was a huge social pain to accommodate 330K+ military and 200K+ civilians as most of them did not have flats/houses in the homeland. SU and then Russia were undertaking costly unilateral steps and in return got a knife in the back. OK, Gorby and Yeltsin were narrow-minded and simply trusted Kohl and his men without bothering of thorough preparation of a binding treaty, which obviously was impossible to implement because Germany could not act on behalf of the whole NATO. Anyway, people here were left with a bad feeling about getting fooled.

GlobalNav:
You wrote: "Contrary to its past behavior, Russia does not hold sovereignty over its neighbors. Realistically, NATO membership by Sweden, Finland or any of the nearby states truly poses no military or security threat to the Soviet (oops Russian) state. This is only in the dangerous 20thc entury mindset of the Kremlin."

Sorry, did not understand the 1st sentence... Problems of the neighbors are their internal problems. Russian contribution to these problems is not more than that of US. Agree though that countries like Sweden, Finland (and all the others in Europe) are of no threat to Russia themselves.Threat is their serving as potential "mega-platforms" for US weapons.
Imagine Russia places serious arms in Cuba and start saying to guys at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave: "Come on, it's not a threat at all, shut down your 60's mindset".

[KenV]

And an awful lot of Finns speak Russian....Indeed. As did a bunch of Ukrainians. And Russia recently used that excuse to annex a big chunk of Ukraine. Of course they would never do that to the Finns. Never.

[peter we]

You and I know that, but in the Russian psyche, the invasions from the West in the 19th and 20th Centuries still runs deep.

They forget about the Russian invasion of Western Europe in 1919, of course. Hitler didn't.
The Russian target was France, turning the whole of Europe over to the Communist Empire.

Then there is this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine

In Denmark targets would include Roskilde and Esbjerg. Roskilde, while having no military significance, would be targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army,

Peace loving ruskies nuking a city becuase of its historical significance..

[A_Van]

Peter,


During the times of SU none of strategic war plans were shared with "satellite countries", especially with Poland that was always considered as a non-reliable one. Maybe there were some paper exercises by military students of Polish general staff or something like that. Or, alternatively, "polish conservatives" fabricated some papers to generate noise and attention. Words like "targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army" were never used in SU military documents. Somebody interpreted some crap papers in the way to excite general public...


You'd better refer to SIOP-62 or earlier Dropshot plans of US.
E.g. https://nsarchive.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/u-s-war-plans-would-kill-an-estimated-108-million-soviets-104-million-chinese-and-2-3-million-poles-more-evidence-on-siop-62-and-the-origins-of-overkill/


A couple of excerpts:


"....if the full U.S. nuclear force assigned to the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) struck the Soviet Union, 54 percent of the total population would be killed, that is some 108 million of a total population of 217 million. "


"... The target list also included almost all Soviet cities with populations of 50,000 or greater. The alert force would target 199 cities, while the full force would target 295."


But since it is a thread for military, what's the use to discuss who was more montrous? That was such a time...
US carpet bombing of Vietnam using napalm and "agent orange" chemical would now be considered as a war crime, but only idiots would attempt to bring the crews to a court now. That was such a time...

[Heathrow Harry]

"the Russian invasion of Western Europe in 1919, of course. Hitler didn't.
The Russian target was France, turning the whole of Europe over to the Communist Empire"

UH???????? The Russians invaded Western Europe in 1919????

Must have missed that one in my Modern History class.....................

[A_Van]

In WW I Russia managed to lose to a loser, somewhat a world anti-record.
I.e Germany was totally defeated by Britain, France and their allies, but shortly before that in 1918 the already "bolshevik" Russia signed a shameful peace deal with Germany according to which the germans occupied a huge part of territory in N-W of Russia.


Maybe by "the Russian invasion of Western Europe in 1919" a conflict with Poland in 1919-1920 was meant? But anyway Poland is eastern, not western Europe...

[Lonewolf_50]

A_Van

Poland may prefer to be classified as Central Europe, rather than Eastern, but I get your geographical point. Culturally, they are an interesting mix of east and west in Europe.

[West Coast]

But anyway Poland is eastern, not western Europe...

I'll leave you to play the geography game, what's most important is which sphere they choose to identify with, which also gives a solid indication who they fear the most.

[ORAC]

Russia waging information war against Sweden, study finds (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/11/russia-waging-information-war-in-sweden-study-finds)

[A_Van]

Sounds like a self-PR of the authors of this "study" to raise more funds for keep reading and "analysing "some social networks garbage. Sweden is very rare in the Russian news and I can hardly remember its mentioning in the negative context. So, please, stop escalating the tension.
Regarding fake news, those guys better recall numerous cries about Russian subs near the Swedesh shore that finally turned out to be trees or just phantoms of their imagination.

[glad rag]

You can't really blame them though.

[peter we]

"the Russian invasion of Western Europe in 1919, of course. Hitler didn't.
The Russian target was France, turning the whole of Europe over to the Communist Empire"

UH???????? The Russians invaded Western Europe in 1919????

Must have missed that one in my Modern History class.....................
You are not alone. Read this if you are interested.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Eagle,_Red_Star

[peter we]

You can't really blame them though.

Indeed,Russia is engaged in war against the West while posters like A Van talk about fluffy kittens.

[Lonewolf_50]

Harry, this summary is an OK overview (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War) of the same topic.

[swedishairforce]

Hmm..Carl Bildt is definitelly not the swedish foreign minister as the post says :)

[pax britanica]

Big big difference int odays world from the past. The threat in the post ware era through to the collapse was an ideological communist government in Russia /USSR as was with a strinng of satellite states and potential allias. China being one even if that was more ideological that.

Now they are now commies but still mange to get cast as the bad guys even though they have lost all their 'satellites/buffer states and cannot count on China as an ally. Russias still a big country but compared tot he US has a small population and the 65-75 M satellite populations are now all on the other side so its inate insecurity looms pretty large at the moment.

So they want to feel respected and rlevant so cyber warfare is on way of projecting power without risk of actual shooting war and playing around with destabilising western/NATO states being another. As they seem to have 'their man' in the White House ' and potentially aided the Brexit campaign as a way of driving a wedge between UK and Eu and therefor upsetting NATO. (the French have already put forward valid case that post Brexit they are the numero uno European military power and political influence.(also conveneint dry run for helping to get Trump in power)

Both these developments see Russia becoming strong and more relevant but not necessarily with any military objectives other than feeling they have ensured their own security through a weaken NATO.

In any case the Russians have already occupied most of the glitzy bits of London so why go to the trouble of a war

[Lonewolf_50]

Might be more accurate to say 'someone we can work with' rather than 'their man' in the White House ' unless hyperbole is you natural style.


Go back to 2012 (http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/), and the face to face Medvedev had with Obama: 'Wait until the election's over, then I'll have more flexibility" from Obama.
(CNSNews.com) - President Obama was running for re-election in March 2012, when a live microphone picked up his whispered conversation with then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Obama told Medvedev it was important for incoming President Vladimir Putin to "give me space" on missile defense and other difficult issues and that after the 2012 presidential election he would have "more flexibility." Medvedev said he would "transmit" the message to Putin.

[peter we]

Might be more accurate to say 'someone we can work with' rather than 'their man' in the White House ' unless hyperbole is you natural style.

No, it's more accurate to say Trump is Moscow's man. Unless he starts standing up to Russia rather than repeating their stock policy and propaganda line at every opportunity, I'll assume his Golden Shower fetish is real.

[ORAC]

Looks like it isn't only the Nordic and Baltic where Russia is interfering. I'm sure Van can authoritatively deny it all......

Cyprus fears Russia could wreck reunification - POLITICO (http://www.politico.eu/article/cyprus-fears-russia-could-wreck-reunification/)

[glad rag]

"Brexit campaign as a way of driving a wedge between UK and Eu and therefor upsetting NATO"

Get outta here. Not Able To Organise.

'sides we ARE better out of the clutches of the EVIL EU. The new USSR.

[glad rag]

I'll assume his Golden Shower fetish is real.

Ask 4chan. Or that English weirdo who wrote that BS the CIA swallowed hook line and sinker [under the direction of Obummer 'natch]

:ugh::rolleyes::rolleyes::ugh:

[A_Van]

ORAC,

Difficult to comment on Cyprus. Not clear what might be the Russian interest - what is written in the article as per URL you mentioned (3rd para) is more than questionable, IMHO. Moreover, if anybody here wants to keep Turkey away from the deal, there is a direct link to Erdogan - talk to him.

In general, Cyprus is a small poor island permanently suffering from lack of water. Recall that King Richard I (the Lionheart) sold it with a "huge discount" shortly after conquering it :-) Looks like it was useless even that long ago.

Also, the Russian criminal elements that flooded Cyprus in 90's then relocated to London (where they are welcome), thus those folks unlikely have interest in this piece of land, either.

[Wander00]

There were still a lot of Russians in Kyrenia when I was there last year

[Heathrow Harry]

not so many in Dubai this winter.................

[Lonewolf_50]

No, it's more accurate to say Trump is Moscow's man.
Bull****. I don't care for the man, but you are offering a caricature mixed with political propaganda. As to golden showers, what two consenting adults do in the privacy of their hotel room doesn't raise an eyebrow anymore. The year is 2017, not 1955.


for A_Van
In general, Cyprus is a small poor island permanently suffering from lack of water. {snip} Looks like it was useless even that long ago. The Turks seem to think it's valuable.

[Heathrow Harry]

In October Mrs H and I were at the Cheltenham Bookfest - there was a round-table discussion chaired by Lt. Gen Ben Hodges, Commander US Army Europe, He was very impressive - and very thoughtful.

In reply to a question on the Baltic he said he wasn't too worried - the threat was "known" and actions were underway. He worried much more about the Caucasus (especially Turkey/Russia), and the Black Sea - Moldova/Romania/Ukraine.

"There is no obvious threat but there is instability and that's when things can get out of control real fast"

[peter we]

I don't care for the man, but you are offering a caricature mixed with political propaganda.

Watch, as Trump's prority will be the Trillion Dollar Exxon-Rosneft oilfield development. That will fund Russians military modernisation. Is that what America voted for?

[ORAC]

Sweden preparing hundreds of nuclear bunkers amid fears of Russian attack | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-nuclear-bunkers-russia-attack-nato-baltic-ukraine-norway-a7642686.html)

Sweden is reportedly preparing hundreds of nuclear war shelters to prepare for an attack from Russia amid growing concerns in the Baltics.

The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) has ordered a review of 350 civilian bunkers on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, where Sweden has stationed permanent troops. The shelters are designed to protect people against the shock wave and radiation from a nuclear detonation, as well as chemical and biological weapons. Mats Berglund, head of civil protection at the MSB, told Sverige Radio the shelters should be checked by the end of the year.

The island's 350 shelters have capacity for around 35,000 people, although Gotland has a population of nearly 60,000. Over 65,000 shelters were established during the Cold War to protect the Swedish population from the potential threat of nuclear warfare. All of the shelters are marked with a distinctive orange and blue logo, along with the word skyddsrum (shelter).

It comes after the head of Sweden's intelligence agency warned there is "a real and serious threat against the security" of the country. While Sapo head Anders Thornberg did not explicitly mention Russia, the country has been building up its military in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and its "increasing pressure" in the region.

Non-Nato member Sweden has been upgrading its military with a sharp hike in spending and has urged local governments to prepare their civil defence infrastructure and procedures for a future war. It recently reintroduced a military draft for both men and women over concerns about increased military action in the Baltic region. Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said the left-leaning government was reintroducing the draft because of a deteriorating security environment in Europe and around Sweden.

[ORAC]

Fortress Sweden: Inside the plan to mobilize Swedish society against Russia (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/03/14/fortress-sweden-inside-the-plan-to-mobilize-swedish-society-against-russia/)

WASHINGTON — Roughly 220 miles of ocean separates Sweden from the heavily militarized Russian port of Kaliningrad. The country’s long, narrow shape leaves it vulnerable to air assault from multiple sides. And Sweden, along with neighboring Finland, are in the unique position as the only non-NATO aligned nations on the Baltic Sea.

Hence, the nation spent the Cold War years preparing to fend for itself against a great power invasion, drawing up plans for how to mobilize the entirety of the civilian population and infrastructure to defend its territory. And then the Soviet Union collapsed, a new era of peace dawned and those plans were left to fall fallow.

Now, Sweden is looking to change that.

A landmark commission formed in early 2017 is laying the groundwork to revitalize Sweden’s “total defense” concept, which would see the country ready to use all aspects of Swedish life to push back an invasion from an unspecified foreign adversary — but one that sounds suspiciously like Europe’s biggest bogeyman in Moscow.

In an exclusive interview with Defense News during a recent visit to Washington, Defence Commission head Bjorn von Sydow and commission secretariat chief Tommy Akesson explained their vision for revitalizing Sweden’s defense infrastructure — one they believe must enable the country to hold out against a major invasion for three months.

“When we say civil defense, we mean all civil activities in society, including medical care, including shelters of course, including private companies, everything. Local communities and all their obligations,” Akesson said. “It’s a total mobilization of the country and planning for how to put all forces in society in the direction of solving, in the worst case, a military attack.”......

[Michael S]

Fortress Sweden: Inside the plan to mobilize Swedish society against Russia (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/03/14/fortress-sweden-inside-the-plan-to-mobilize-swedish-society-against-russia/)

WASHINGTON — Roughly 220 miles of ocean separates Sweden from the heavily militarized Russian port of Kaliningrad.





Only in ‘murica. There is no ocean between Sweden and Kaliningrad. 😂

[AAKEE]

Only in ‘murica. There is no ocean between Sweden and Kaliningrad. 😂

It´s on the wish list. 😬

[charliegolf]

Only in ‘murica. There is no ocean between Sweden and Kaliningrad. 😂

To Americans, that would bethe Atlantic.:E

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-nato-membership-dilemma/

Sweden edges closer to NATO membership

STOCKHOLM — Sweden is rethinking its security, and whether it really is safest outside NATO.

Two years out from the next election, debate over whether to join the Western defense alliance is intensifying, setting up a left-versus-right clash on the question in 2022.

The current minority government of Social Democrats and Greens — plus their allies the Left Party — remain staunchly against, citing the value of neutrality in what they see as a polarizing world. On the other side, four traditionally allied center-right parties — the Moderate Party, the Liberals, the Center Party and the Christian Democrats — are in favor, saying Sweden needs the security of the defense guarantees that NATO membership offers.

The pro-NATO side scored a big win last week when the far-right Sweden Democrats, who are angling for closer cooperation with the center-right bloc in a range of policy areas, reversed a previous anti-NATO stance and backed a motion for Sweden to adopt a so-called NATO option — allowing it to join NATO at some point in the future. Parliament voted in favor of the motion by 204 votes to 145.

“Issues of defense don’t normally sit high on the agenda in elections here, but since the Sweden Democrats have now moved their position, we could well see more interest,” said Allan Widman, a lawmaker with the Liberal Party and spokesman on defense policy.

Adopting a “NATO option” is not a commitment to join — Finland has had such an option since 1995 and remains outside the pact — but is widely seen as a movement in that direction. The government has acknowledged as much by so far refusing to act on it.

Foreign Minister Ann Linde called parliamentary backing for the move “a significant negative event for Swedish security.”.......

[Asturias56]

I think this would have tp be passed by a significant majority in a referendum to be adopted . A lot of Swedes are uneasy about changing a very central policy that they've lived with for 70 years

It would be like the UK leaving NATO..... +

[Lyneham Lad]

This article was in The Times on Monday.
Sweden upgrades military as it considers joining Nato (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ab0150f8-42df-11eb-afd8-7d77005d5199?shareToken=e0297b6984bbf9ac0c64f328551aa149)

Article intro:-
Sweden is making the biggest upgrade to its armed forces in more than half a century and debating whether to join Nato in response to a burst of Russian military activity around the Baltic, the north Atlantic and the Arctic Circle.

Troop numbers will rise from 60,000 to 90,000 over the next four years and annual defence spending will increase by 40 per cent to £7.2 billion, or about 1.5 per cent of GDP, under a budget passed by MPs on Wednesday.

The country’s long-held principle of non-alignment is also coming into question after a majority of parliamentarians voted for the first time in favour of considering Nato membership.

Click the link for remainder & photos.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/forsvaret_no/status/1560290586833321984?s=21&t=-S2MxQMCj3ao0mo-U1gztg


Earlier today, Swedish and Norwegian fighter aircraft escorted B-52 bombers from @usairforce over Norwegian territory. This is the first time we release photos showing the three nations together on a mission like this.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1333/image_a8a804b2f8a6ec21e93699317ed082452a3b07d5.jpeg

https://www.iceye.com/press/press-releases/iceye-signs-contract-to-provide-government-of-ukraine-with-access-to-its-sar-satellite-constellation

Helsinki, FINLAND – August 18, 2022 – ICEYE (https://www.iceye.com/), the global leader in persistent monitoring with radar satellite imaging, has signed a contract with the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation which will provide the Government of Ukraine with ICEYE’s Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imaging capabilities.

As part of the agreement, ICEYE will transfer full capabilities of one of its SAR satellites already in orbit for the Government of Ukraine’s use over the region. The SAR satellite will be operated by ICEYE. In addition, ICEYE will provide access to its constellation of SAR satellites, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency…..

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1581664199629234177?s=61&t=BANVDUp5laqps6gYAfkhqA


NEW: The US and Sweden have signed a new military cooperation agreement to secure Sweden's borders during the NATO application period - SVT

[Chugalug2]

Hitler sounded the death knell for the concept of 'neutral' countries. Other than Sweden and Switzerland (the former because he could be certain of it supplying his iron ore needs, the latter to launder his stolen Jewish and plundered nations' gold) he overran all the other 'neutral' countries in his path, stopping short only at Spain, Portugal, and Ireland on the Atlantic coasts. Ukraine is a terrible warning to any country that thinks it can remain 'neutral' in today's world. The Finns and Swedes have realised that. Others need to take careful note, lest they be in Putin's little black book...

[albatross]

JOKE
I can’t help thinking: NATO should have named this week’s exercises “Frequent Finger” or “Deployed Digit”.

I can only imagine the Military pundits on Fox, CNN ect. trying to say that without laughing.

The Russian reaction and their. “TV Commentators” outrage would be hilarious. They could hold exercise “Wagging Wang” in retaliation.
JOKE OVER.

[fdr]

So, from a curious online source comes a comment attributed purportedly to our favourite "shoot my uncle with a ZSU 57" leader.

From one dear leader to another...

"Let them not forget that we have the power to completely wipe Russia, which thinks its power is a great nuclear power, from the map in one night. Russia should leave Ukraine as soon as possible and should not talk about its nuclear threat again, we can use all our nuclear power on Russia," The Real Dear Leader.

MNKGAA! "Make North Korea Great, Again, Again".


If true, we have slipped into a Salvador Dali-esque reality. Could be Xi getting word out about displeasure.

[unmanned_droid]

So, from a curious online source comes a comment attributed purportedly to our favourite "shoot my uncle with a ZSU 57" leader.

From one dear leader to another...

"Let them not forget that we have the power to completely wipe Russia, which thinks its power is a great nuclear power, from the map in one night. Russia should leave Ukraine as soon as possible and should not talk about its nuclear threat again, we can use all our nuclear power on Russia," The Real Dear Leader.

MNKGAA! "Make North Korea Great, Again, Again".


If true, we have slipped into a Salvador Dali-esque reality. Could be Xi getting word out about displeasure.

That is, errrrr unexpected.

[albatross]

You: “I think I will install a monitored home alarm and cameras due to the rise of vicious Home Invasions in the area!”

Local gang of vicious Home Invaders: “Don’t you dare install a Home Alarm. Terrible consequences will follow!”

You: “Thank you for your valued input. If you don’t like the home alarm you are definitely not going to like the optional “Home Defence Package” I have selected. My house, my rules.”

[Asturias56]

i could see a case where N Korea might say something like the fdr thread

They're not threatening to nuke Russia - they're reminding Xi that anyone who thinks they can do a Putin on NK will face serious damage. Now who could that be?? Big neighbour, exasperated by small country next door.................

[Bengo]

i could see a case where N Korea might say something like the fdr thread

They're not threatening to nuke Russia - they're reminding Xi that anyone who thinks they can do a Putin on NK will face serious damage. Now who could that be?? Big neighbour, exasperated by small country next door.................


IMO China has no need to "do a Putin". The PLA can stay at home.

When it is expedient to control NK and the current Supreme Leader is not behaving he or she will simply be removed, and replaced by a better educated Grandest of all Leaders I would be very surprised if the CCP does not have quite sufficient agents in powerful but subordinate ranks in NK to effect a 'heart attack", or a falling from horse event.
N

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1582493513324720128?s=61&t=K5OGJbpRhMWdn71hkkIPnQ


GREAT WALL OF FINLAND: Finnish politicians have announced plans to construct a wall along the border with Russia. The barrier is set to cover 260 km of the country's 1300 km shared border with neighboring Russia and will be completed within five years.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x852/image_6ef32a9152440c17c018acc22980377d8a9614de.jpeg

[Asturias56]

well it says "Fencing" - so if its just a fence it won't be a great trip wire - now if it's ditches etc I can see the point - anything that forces you off road in that terrain will slow you down big time.

[WB627]

I'm not sure the Fin's need this. Last time Russia sent troops over the border they lost 50,000 killed and I'm not sure Russia will ,have that many troops going spare any time soon.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/735x821/select_all_images_with_finnish_snipers_by_zeroualizero_df3i6 m5_fullview_0ffc82c383fd9b05d5595a4df62837daf796d263.jpg

[Asturias56]

yeah but the Russians won in the end remember :(

[The Helpful Stacker]

yeah but the Russians won in the end remember :(

It was a very different Finland in those days.

Seemingly Russia hasn't changed their conscription policies much since then...

[Bengo]

Not necessarily a fence for direct military purpose. If you were looking forward, to a time pehaps when the RF was breaking up, or in other internal turmoil, a fence near the practical border crossing points would at least give you some measure of control over a flow of West-bound refugees.

N

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1583123587292360705?s=61&t=HOd4A6wdA7pkz2SlUXjawg


The Swedish armed forces have asked the police for help in a 'situation' on the West Coast. Reports of drone activity over a military facility - Sveriges Radio

[Beamr]

Not necessarily a fence for direct military purpose. If you were looking forward, to a time pehaps when the RF was breaking up, or in other internal turmoil, a fence near the practical border crossing points would at least give you some measure of control over a flow of West-bound refugees.

N
this very much. The border itself is very well looked after already, not a squirrel crosses it without the Finns knowing it. Finnish border guards regularly share videos of immigrants like wild bores, bears and elks crossing the border.
Occasionally human beings try that as well but all are detained neverminding the crossing point.
The planned fence will be to contain a similar situation seen on the Poland/Belarus border with hundreds or thousands of people pushed towards the border by Belarusian officials.

Theres no point in fencing the entire border or make anything more robust as no one in their right mind would walk through tens of kilometers of Karelian forests to the border just to find themselves in the middle of Karelian forests either freezing in three feet of snow in the winter or being eaten by billions of mosquitoes in the summer while standing on a swamp up your loins. And still you'd be caught.

And for the same reason the Russkies would be rather adventurous trying to enter with military force out there. It would be more probable for them to succeed via roads than through the vastness of dense woods, deep swamps and plenty of lakes. However the roads are few and narrow. And surrounded by dense woods with local defenders.

When the SU broke up and especially during the coup there were serious concerns what should be done if there would've been a mass exodus towards west. This has been a scenario in the planning ever since although the politicians did a piss poor job in the early 21st century bowing towards Russia by signing the Ottawa treaty, allowing the Nord Stream, allowing russians to buy real estate from places they shouldn't have etc.

One may think what they will of PM Sanna Marin but she's really been a whirlwind of fresh air venting the relationship with Russia.

[Asturias56]

Hard to believe hundreds off thousands of refugees will make it to the NW of Russia to cross the border when they can do it further south in a lot easier. But it does make sense to harden the border crossings because, as we all now, going through the woods is apoor option

[fdr]

It was a very different Finland in those days.

Seemingly Russia hasn't changed their conscription policies much since then...

But at least Russian of the Winter war 1940 will recognize the equipment used by Vlad's storm troopers. In fact, they may need to check their museums to see how many exhibits are missing from WW-1, the civil war, & WW-2

[DaveReidUK]

Finnish border guards regularly share videos of immigrants like wild bores

Though happily most immigrants have interesting stories to tell.

[Bergerie1]

Dave, Touché!!

[Beamr]

Hungary has moved with the ratification and should be done by mid December.
That leaves Turkey alone opposing the memberships.

"Chief of staff to PM Viktor Orbán, said the expansion of NATO to include the two Nordic countries would be ratified by mid-December at the latest"

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1583836522737856514

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1583836522737856514

[ORAC]

Consequences….

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1586781915322978304?s=61&t=mnsKj3IXM-HjWg0xWm8yBA


Finland's PM does not rule out nuclear weapons or permanent Nato bases in Finland - YLE

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-and-sweden-have-delivered-nato-chief-says-in-turkey/

NATO chief to Turkey: It’s time to admit Finland, Sweden

During a visit, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the NATO applicants had fulfilled their deal with Turkey.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday increased pressure on Turkey to green-light Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance, declaring during a visit to Istanbul that Stockholm and Helsinki “have delivered” and should be allowed in.

Officials from Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a memorandum in June to pave the way for the two countries to address Turkish concerns regarding terrorism and arms exports, but Turkey — along with Hungary — has yet to sign off on their accession.

The delay has raised questions about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political strategy and whether he is using the issue of NATO accession as a bargaining chip in Ankara’s complex relationship with the United States, as well as to boost his own popularity at home.

Turkish officials’ rhetoric on the need to crack down on “terrorism” has also fueled frustration among some Western officials who say Ankara could be using the term in an attempt to crack down on critics.

“I recognize your concerns,” Stoltenberg said in a press conference alongside Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. “At the same time,” he said, “it is clear that Finland and Sweden have delivered on the memorandum and are committed to the long-term partnership with Türkiye.”

The NATO chief said both Sweden and Finland have taken “major concrete actions” to implement the deal with Turkey, including boosting cooperation on counterterrorism.

“Sweden is passing new legislation prohibiting participation in terrorist organizations, including the PKK, and strengthening the tools on terrorist financing — more extraditions and expulsions are taking place, and restrictions on arms sale to Türkiye have ended,” he said.

Helsinki and Stockholm, he said, have done their part, and “so it’s time to welcome Finland and Sweden as full members of NATO.”…….

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/tonyingesson/status/1591120136320258049?s=61&t=LLaSCjZLpPWECF1jQnDFaw


For my English-speaking intel/security people, here's a summary thread re. the GRU espionage case in Sweden that is getting significant media coverage here today:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591120136320258049.html

[sitigeltfel]

For my English-speaking intel/security people, here's a summary thread re. the GRU espionage case in Sweden that is getting significant media coverage here today:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591120136320258049.html

Those names suggest a Persian/Kurdish heritage.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1612077492528992256?s=61&t=4pd3Xcy1DWEBVdIulUT7Zg


#Breaking Sweden's prime minister has said Sweden can't meet Turkey's demands for NATO bid, during a security conference.

"Turkey both confirms that we have done what we said we would do, but they also say that they want things that we cannot or do not want to give them," - Sweden PM

[GlobalNav]

Wht can’t a subset of NATO countries could form a separate “North European Treaty Organization” and invite Finland, Sweden and other like-minded nations to join?

[Lonewolf_50]

Scale, and the lack of the throw weight of the US of A and the Alliance as a whole.

[Courtney Mil]

The more Russia “warns them” not to join, the more persuasive the argument to join.

[Lonewolf_50]

The more Russia “warns them” not to join, the more persuasive the argument to join. Great to see you posting here again. :ok: Have missed your input.
That little squeeze job Mr Erdogan is putting on the Finns and Swedes should surprise nobody.
Interesting to see the Swedes push back a bit.

[ORAC]

Congress to block Turkish F-16 and other purchases until they approve Finnish and Swedish NATO accession.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/02/02/senators-want-to-block-turkey-f-16-sale-until-nato-expansion-succeeds/

[Lonewolf_50]

Congress to block Turkish F-16 and other purchases until they approve Finnish and Swedish NATO accession.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/02/02/senators-want-to-block-turkey-f-16-sale-until-nato-expansion-succeeds/ I will offer a guess that the only person who is enjoying this bun fight is named Vladimir.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/04/07/finland-to-buy-israels-davids-sling-air-defense-system/

Finland to buy Israel’s David’s Sling air defense system

The Finnish Ministry of Defense plans to buy the David’s Sling air defense system in a €316 million deal announced just one day after Finland joined NATO (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/04/04/finland-joins-nato-dealing-blow-to-russia-for-ukraine-war/).

Finland’s Ministry of Defence said it “authorised the Finnish Defence Forces to procure the David’s Sling system as the next long-range air defence system of Finland.”…

This will be the first export of the David’s Sling system. The system is designed to intercept advanced aerial threats, including ballistic missiles, aircrafts, UAVs and cruise missiles, Israel’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement.…

The agreement with Israel includes interceptors, launchers and radars. While Rafael is the prime contractor, the agreement involves work with IAI’s Elta subsidiary regarding the multi-mission radar for the system, and also Elbit Systems, which makes the command and control system. Together, these are Israel’s three largest defense companies.…

The Finnish version of the system will be manufactured and integrated as a collaboration between Israeli, American and Finnish contractors, led by Rafael and Raytheon Technologies, the Israeli statement said.

Finland’s statement noted the main contract is worth €213 million and includes an immediate exercise of options for another €103 million. The contract also includes other unspecified options for €216 million.

In addition, the Finnish statement notes “the procurement contract will include a separate part between the Israel Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Defence of Finland to ensure the security of supply of the system. The arrangement will ensure the availability of critical system components in all security situations.”….

[ORAC]

https://www.forsvaret.no/en/news/publications/military-advice

The Military Advice of the Chief of Defence 2023

In November 2022, the Norwegian Government asked the Chief of Defence for his recommendation for how the Armed Forces should look in the future. This is the military advice of the Chief of Defence.

[Asturias56]

They must be relieved - their land non-NATO border has shrunk from a couple of thousand kms to about 12..... going to get crowded up in Kirkness mind you..........................

[DaveReidUK]

Wht can’t a subset of NATO countries could form a separate “North European Treaty Organization” and invite Finland, Sweden and other like-minded nations to join?

Presumably they wouldn't need to bother having an Article 5 ...

[ORAC]

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/06/denmark-considering-military-submarines-after-almost-20-year-gap-danish-lawmaker/


Denmark Considering Mikitary Submarines After Almost 20 Year Gap (https://breakingdefense.com/2023/06/denmark-considering-military-submarines-after-almost-20-year-gap-danish-lawmaker/)

BELFAST — Denmark (https://breakingdefense.com/tag/denmark/) could be on the way to procuring new submarines as it looks to bolster maritime capabilities and deter Baltic Sea expeditions by Moscow.

The Scandinavian nation divested its fleet of submarines in 2004 but lawmakers are actively considering whether to acquire them again or rely on “close cooperation” with “friends” to deliver such capability, according to Michael Aastrup Jensen, chair of Denmark’s foreign policy committee.

He said during a Hudson Institute event today in Washington that the submarine discussions are happening “right now” as part of a wider political examination of future Danish defense (https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/denmark-netherlands-to-lead-f-16-training-coalition-for-ukrainian-pilots-austin/) requirements.

“Denmark is very strategic, meaning that all Russian Navy vessels have to sail through our waters if they come out from St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad and therefore we need to beef up our defense in depth, which is a completely new awakening for us,” said Aastrup Jensen.…..

[Rescue3]

I was reading somewhere earlier that the US has "blocked" a huge contract for HIMARS destined for Hungary due to the Hungarian opposition to Sweden joining.
Its a shame that the NATO convention does not allow for suspension of what may be considered hostile countries, albeit whether its political or otherwise....
If it did then Turkey and Hungary may find themselves sitting on the sidelines.
But BZ to the US for blocking sales to Hungary..... long may it continue..

[Expatrick]

I was reading somewhere earlier that the US has "blocked" a huge contract for HIMARS destined for Hungary due to the Hungarian opposition to Sweden joining.
Its a shame that the NATO convention does not allow for suspension of what may be considered hostile countries, albeit whether its political or otherwise....
If it did then Turkey and Hungary may find themselves sitting on the sidelines.
But BZ to the US for blocking sales to Hungary..... long may it continue..

Hmmm, smart move blocking arms sales to a country rather close to a war zone and a member of an organisation devoted to defending & deferring aggression from an enemy, bearing in mind that Sweden's interest in NATO only came out of the above mentioned war.

[MarcK]

Hmmm, smart move blocking arms sales to a country rather close to a war zone and a member of an organisation devoted to defending & deferring aggression from an enemy, bearing in mind that Sweden's interest in NATO only came out of the above mentioned war.
Is that the same country that is taking Ukrainian POWs at Russia's request? I'm not sure I would trust them with a B-B gun, much less a HIMARS.

[Expatrick]

Is that the same country that is taking Ukrainian POWs at Russia's request? I'm not sure I would trust them with a B-B gun, much less a HIMARS.

11 ethnic Hungarians from Trans Carpathia handed over to Hungary -

"Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko informed on his Facebook page that the release of Ukrainian POWs is always good news. "

[ORAC]

Yeah… right, sure you did….

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/15/hungary-responds-after-us-senator-says-he-blocked-himars-purchase/

Hungary responds after US senator says he blocked HIMARS purchase

WARSAW, Poland — The Hungarian government has said it abandoned plans to order High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems after last year’s bilateral talks failed to produce an agreement with the United States.

“During the previous government term, the government commissioner responsible for [weapon] procurements requested information regarding the HIMARS missile systems in a letter, with a deadline of March 2022.

There was no response from the American side, and the ministry considered the matter closed,” Hungary’s Defence Ministry said in a statement recently published by the state-run MTI news agency…..

Earlier this week, U.S. Sen. James Risch of Idaho said he had blocked the sale of 24 HIMARS weapons to Hungary.

Speaking to The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/14/hungary-sweden-nato-james-risch-himars/), Risch explained he halted the potential $735 million deal with Hungary due to its government’s refusal to agree to Sweden’s accession to NATO.

The lawmaker is the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

While Budapest’s latest announcement could represent a face-saving attempt, it also demonstrates the growing distance between the Hungarian government and many of its Western partners…..

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/Havoc_Six/status/1671504476404891648?s=20


A pair U.S. Air Force B-1 bombers kicked off a historic deployment this week. Per the spokesperson for U.S. Air Forces Europe, they are the first U.S. bombers to have landed in Sweden.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x600/image_beb0a45129e335021accbab5153e5df7fe7027a9.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[Chugalug2]

A pair U.S. Air Force B-1 bombers kicked off a historic deployment this week. Per the spokesperson for U.S. Air Forces Europe, they are the first U.S. bombers to have landed in Sweden.

​​​​​​​He may have forgotten a B-17 or two.

[pr00ne]

He may have forgotten a B-17 or two.

And a score of B-24’s or so…

[ORAC]

Now that the NATO conference is over, and he has his promise of new F-16s….

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679172974530773007?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​BREAKING:

Erdogan says it will take time before Turkey ratifies Sweden’s NATO membership application.

- Sweden will first have to present Turkey with an acceptable roadmap

- It can only be ratified after the Turkish parliament’s summer break (meaning October)

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679399001827733506?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​BREAKING:

The Swedish Supreme Court stops extradition of two Turks wanted by Erdogan, putting Sweden’s NATO membership at risk.

[Lonewolf_50]

But reminding Erdogan that they are not as likely to get pushed around as he'd wish.
Sweden can be patient. And they will be. Good for them.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/israel_mod/status/1686781773231931411?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The US Government approved the procurement of the Israeli “David’s Sling” Weapon System to Finland. After receiving approval, the Israel MOD, Finnish MOD & Rafael Advanced Systems will participate in a ceremony to sign a procurement agreement worth approximately 316 million Euros.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1024x731/image_c3c6767d3a8338776233c5ba94deeae8a6678865.jpeg
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[fdr]

There are some security aspects to EU membership, not as compelling as NATO, but then they don't have the lunacy of being politicised by someone who objects to the entry of a neutral country that substantially improves the collective defence of all of NATO, the party objecting being one who is quite happy to commit various levels of genocide, and to act aggressively against "brother" NATO members. There is room for a revision 1.0 to NATO, to remove the petty politics. Right now, we have one NATO country that is constraining NATO partners from using a waterway to ensure freedom of navigation and to ward off a potential famine in the 3rd world... and I actually like parts of their country, and people, but they are exasperating.

[GlobalNav]

I was reading somewhere earlier that the US has "blocked" a huge contract for HIMARS destined for Hungary due to the Hungarian opposition to Sweden joining.
Its a shame that the NATO convention does not allow for suspension of what may be considered hostile countries, albeit whether its political or otherwise....
If it did then Turkey and Hungary may find themselves sitting on the sidelines.
But BZ to the US for blocking sales to Hungary..... long may it continue..
Not sure about Hungary, but the west needs Turkey as an ally. Like it or not, Turkey is key at the south eastern corner and bridge to Middle East region. It would be extremely short-sighted to alienate them. Not to say we cannot have disagreements and that we are not bound to do everything they want.

[Lonewolf_50]

Politics is a messy business. NATO is, in the end, a political alliance.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/russia-spreading-false-claims-about-quran-burnings-to-harm-nato-bid-says-sweden

Russia spreading false claims about Qur’an burnings to harm Nato bid, says Sweden

Defence agency says Moscow is using the protests in Stockholm to stir tensions between Arab countries and the west

The Swedish authorities have accused Russia of trying to influence how Qur’an burnings (https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/aug/01/un-intervene-quran-burnings-sweden-denmark-organisation-islamic-cooperation-islamophobia) are viewed around the world through disinformation campaigns written in Arabic. It is believed to be part of an attempt to disrupt Sweden’s Nato membership process, which is still waiting for approval by Turkey and Hungary.

Sweden’s psychological defence agency, part of the Ministry of Defence, said that the Russian state-controlled media outlets RT and Sputnik had published a series of articles in Arabic, falsely claiming that the Swedish government supported Qur’an burning. Since the end of June, the authorities have logged about a million similar posts in Arabic and other languages.…

[ORAC]

Let’s wait and see how Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states feel about that…

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1700918044497785236?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Germany offers to host NATO headquarters in the Baltic Sea

Germany is ready to take over the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance naval forces in the Baltic Sea within the framework of a regional headquarters, a letter with this proposal has already been handed over to the NATO leadership.

The German side notes that the headquarters for these tasks, already exists and is currently used to manage the NATO maritime exercise "North Coast", which began September 9 off the coast of Latvia and Estonia.

[ORAC]

BREAKING:

Sweden announces it will increase its military spending by 28% next year.

It will now stand at 2.1% of GDP, reaching above the 2% requirement for NATO members.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1702797608341717081?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Finland has finished construction on its first stretch of border fence with Russia.

The trial stretch is just 3 km long. The plan is to have a 1300 km fence along the entire border with Russia in place within 3-4 years.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/627x473/image_7382b8b23896b0ef6d761400c4985d5c729393bf.jpeg
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[Andrewgr2]

That fence looks hard to scale but tunnelling seems to be the preferred way of bypassing such fences. Mexicans seem pretty good at it.

[ORAC]

Depends how far down it goes and what is laid alongside it.

I worked on birder control system design for a couple of years, fibre-optic cables can identify not only digging but also footsteps, whilst discarding animal steps, over extremely long stretches to allow guards to be dispatched. Cable lengths can be around 100km, where you need a remote power supply and comms connection back to the control centre.

e.g. https://www.optasense.com/documents/Border%20Security%20and%20Surveillance_Brochure_Dec2020.pdf

[ehwatezedoing]

Finland has finished construction on its first stretch of border fence with Russia.

The trial stretch is just 3 km long. The plan is to have a 1300 km fence along the entire border with Russia in place within 3-4 years.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/627x473/image_7382b8b23896b0ef6d761400c4985d5c729393bf.jpeg

And the wild life is paying the price of human’ stupidity again.

[Ninthace]

And the wild life is paying the price of human’ stupidity again.
The Inner German Border used to have badger gates in it to let the smaller wildlife through. Never let it be said the good old fashioned Soviets were inhumane.

[dead_pan]

I worked on birder control system design for a couple of years, fibre-optic cables can identify not only digging but also footsteps, whilst discarding animal steps, over extremely long stretches to allow guards to be dispatched.

Goddam ornithologists eh? Always going places they aren't supposed to

[GlobalNav]

And the wild life is paying the price of human’ stupidity again.
I hope they can get Mexico to pay for it. We had trouble with that, but it might have the approach we took.

[Less Hair]

The Inner German Border used to have badger gates in it to let the smaller wildlife through.
First time I hear this. I have never seen one.

[Imagegear]

Probably used badgers at the time to carry intelligence between West and East. :E

IG

[Asturias56]

It was the way Bovine TB was introduced to the UK - according to the Home Secretary

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ukdefencefin/status/1704441758665396524?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


First ever RAF Typhoon operating from a Finnish road strip. Thanks to Karelia Air Command for sharing your expertise. RAF Agile Combat Employment in action.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1504/image_74636ce584d9a3425dd75a85d9a338065cec150d.jpeg



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1504/image_3cfa1c1856d1eab8400f7aa88cf53bf83e44e51b.jpeg



https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1504/image_7c9df1a6bea35895ffbda1d11208d2948976c22b.jpeg
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[Lonewolf_50]

An amusing verification of Finland's choice to join the alliance (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-zaporozhzhia-nato-invade-balitsky-1832236): ... top Kremlin-installed official in the oblast, Yevgeny Balitsky, said Russia should also have its eye on the Baltic states, as well as Poland and Finland, all five of which are NATO (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/nato) countries. In April, Finland became NATO's 31st member (https://www.newsweek.com/what-finland-adds-nato-military-arsenal-tanks-artillery-aircraft-russia-1792384), joining Poland and the Baltic states in the 31-member alliance, whose fifth article says that an attack on one state is an attack on all. In the interview shared by Russia watcher Julia Davis, Balitsky seemed ready to take on the alliance as he spoke of how the Russian Empire that ended with the 1917 revolution had "lost its footing" as well as "great numbers of people.""I'm not even talking about territories. I understand that it includes Warsaw, Helsinki, also known as Helsingfors," he said.

The Russian Empire, which existed between 1721 and 1917, covered a vast territory. Finland was part of Russia's empire until it declared its independence after the Russian Revolution. The 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk saw revolutionary Russia renounce its claims on Polish territories. Balitsky described how "all of the Baltics" were "all our lands, and our people live there," noting the Russian-speaking population in those countries. I guess ya gotta think big to ... restore an empire ... :p

[ORAC]

https://news.err.ee/1609125926/balticconnector-pipeline-between-estonia-and-finland-closed-due-to-gas-leak

Balticconnector pipeline between Estonia and Finland closed due to gas leak

A possible leak has put the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland out of commission. The undersea pipeline experienced a pressure drop in the wee hours of Sunday, which prompted system operators on both sides to cut off the gas, Estonian TSO Elering said.….


https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1711388016000827427?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Although much is to be determined, in mid-Sep @gapinskimj wrote in our Kaliningrad Military Digest about the Russian Sibiryakov hydrographic survey vessel's movements near the Balticconnector. We're not pointing fingers, but it's highly likely that Russians surveyed the pipe.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/983x567/image_2fdc80870fb9a5efff2871571c5d74ca2fa3cde5.png
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[ORAC]

Presumption is it concerns the interconnect…

https://x.com/henrivanhanen/status/1711690281798492257?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING: Government of Finland to hold a presser at 14:00 Helsinki time, due to a serious national security concern as reported by media.

​​​​​​​Postponed for later today!

[ORAC]

That’s confirmed…

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1711713273416925501?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The gas pipeline "Baltic Connector" between Finland & Estonia has started leaking.

Finland launches probe on the premise of criminal sabotage.

Finnish newspaper Iltalehti writes Finnish officials are convinced that Russia has attacked the pipeline

https://x.com/akihheikkinen/status/1711706167766843582?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Finnish national broadcaster YLE referring to it's sources: seems #balticconnector leak was not an accident.

Navy Mine countermeasures vessel MHC Purunpää and Border Guard offshore patrol vessel Turva on site.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1711735140836118549?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Apart from the gas pipeline "balticconnector", an undersea communications cable between Finland and Estonia has also been damaged.

Finnish government press conference to start at 5:30 pm Finnish time.

Finland is a NATO member state

[ORAC]

Confirmed.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1711740474258559258?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Finland's President Sauli Niinistö says the damages done to both the balticconnector gas pipeline and a communication cable connecting Finland with Estonia are "the result of external activity"

Finland is a NATO member state

[Rockie_Rapier]

Undersea pipline linking Estonia and Finland mysteriously damaged. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/undersea-pipeline-damage-appears-to-be-deliberate-says-finland)

The Finnish government said in a statement that authorities had discovered the damage to the Balticconnector natural gas pipeline, and to a communication cable linking Finland (https://www.theguardian.com/world/finland) and Estonia, at about 2am local time (0000 BST) on Sunday morning.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/the_lookout_n/status/1711783515170173357?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR:

"NORSAR have detected a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 (local time in Finland) on 8th October 2023. This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1140x1722/image_e678eb613b36ee19510a37a025e03aac14c8802c.png
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[ORAC]

https://x.com/pesumatti/status/1711989222410801238?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

.........
The sabotage of #BalticConnector and the telcom cable connecting Finland and Estonia must be placed in a broader context.

A thread from a Finnish perspective:
Contrary to expectations, Russia's immeduate response to 🇫🇮 NATO bid was muted. However, this year, Finland has been subject to harsher treatment. Moscow e.g. took over the Russian assets of Fortum and withdrew its agreement for operation of 🇫🇮 consulate in St. Petersburg.

Furthermore, several Russian top officials have recently singled out Finland, portraying it as an offensive American vassal. The suspected sabotage would mark the continuation of this increasingly aggressive policy.

Moscow likely has two broad aims vis-a-vis 🇫🇮 . It wants to intimidate Finland and NATO from building a robust deterrence and defence posture in Northern Europe. The Russian leadership also seeks to transform the rather neutral domestic image of Finland.

Sabotaging critical infrastructure fits in the strategy of intimidation. Russia wants to sow fear among Finnish decisionmakers and the public. The likely aim is to limit allied presence in Finland as well as the depth of its NATO integration.

It goes without saying that the acts of sabotage in the Gulf of Finland were dramatic. That said, neither the gas pipeline nor the telecom cable were absolutely vital for the critical functions of Finnish society or for its security of supply.

That is to say that Russia has far more destabilizing and disruptive measures in its gray zone toolkit. Moreover, the acts of sabotage took place outside the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia. I.e. Russia did not violate their sovereignty.

We do not yet know whether the measures were a prelude to something more disrupting or just an one-off measure.

Perhaps we should treat occasional aggressive grayzone acts as the new normal of Northern European security, characterised by NATO-Russia confrontation.

​​​​​​​One last point: Finnish leaders and experts have already underscored that the acts of sabotage were not a surprise. As recently as late August, President @niinisto reminded Finns that Finland must remain prepared for malign measures from Russia.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/nato-vows-to-respond-if-finland-estonia-gas-pipeline-damage-is-deliberate


Nato vows to respond if Finland-Estonia gas pipeline damage is deliberate

Alliance’s chief says if there is proof of attack it will be met with ‘determined’ response, amid speculation about Russian sabotage

[ORAC]

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1713837060342054977?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Reuters:

Türkiye set to delay ratifying Sweden's NATO bid until after October as it awaits signs of U.S. support for its own request to buy F-16 jets.

[ORAC]

Maybe nothing, maybe not….

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1715122973600809187?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel.

It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha. At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes.….

Dutch warship Holland is not only just south of one of Europes largest wind farms, she is on top of Interconnector, a gas pipeline connecting UK with mainland Europe.…

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x711/image_4009c7253caec493262ae362de13d2152b9199fe.png
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[meleagertoo]

Though the above graphic is not immediately geo-locatable should the Ruzzians or anyone else interfere with a gas pipe or electric connector in UK waters then that would be an overt act of war.
As it stand sounds like yet more fake news to me.

[albatross]

Though the above graphic is not immediately geo-locatable should the Ruzzians or anyone else interfere with a gas pipe or electric connector in UK waters then that would be an overt act of war.
As it stand sounds like yet more fake news to me.


She is now moored in Rotterdam…..it being the weekend.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1093/img_7033_27078aa0bee7335f940c604c0d3f89af74144b5a.jpeg

[Buster Hyman]

She is now moored in Rotterdam…..it being the weekend.

How many days in a NATO Weekend? (Asking for a friend, a Mr. Vic Partin...) :cool:

[ORAC]

https://x.com/swedennato/status/1716464998094909577?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Good news today from Ankara. President Erdoğan has handed the Swedish ratification documents to the 🇹🇷 parliament.

🇸🇪 stands ready to contribute to the security of the Alliance.

​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

Good news today from Ankara. President Erdoğan has handed the Swedish ratification documents to the 🇹🇷 parliament.

🇸🇪 stands ready to contribute to the security of the Alliance. I guess that Mr E has gotten whatever political leverage he could from the block and is moving forward.
Or, one of the parties in the parliament will kick up the storm of rhetoric again ... :p

[ORAC]

https://x.com/minna_alander/status/1716541088129810631?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Sweden is not only moving towards NATO but also likely to conclude the DCA negotiations with the US this week. Including:

- access for 🇺🇸 to selected 🇸🇪 military bases

- no 🇳🇴-style restriction on nuclear exercises or storage
​​​​​​​
@aewastenberg via @charlyjsp

[ORAC]

Another Baltic cable attack….

https://x.com/samramani2/status/1716504843328655846?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING: Sweden says its undersea communications cable with Estonia was damaged by "external force or tampering"

Sweden has linked the attack on the communications cable to the Finland-Estonia Balticconnector gas pipeline

But it notably stopped short of blaming Russia

Latvia is pushing NATO to close the Baltic Sea for shipping if Russia perpetrated the Finland-Estonia pipeline attack…

https://kyivindependent.com/undersea-telecom-cable-between-sweden-and-estonia-damaged-by-tampering/

Undersea telecom cable between Sweden and Estonia damaged by 'tampering'

An underwater telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia was "damaged by means of external force or tampering," the Swedish government said (https://government.se/articles/2023/10/damaged-telecommunications-cable-between-sweden-and-estonia/) on Oct. 23.

A Swedish investigation concluded that the damage occurred "within the Estonian economic zone" and did not affect the cable's functionality.

Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson and Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin held a press conference on Oct. 17 to discuss the damage, which was discovered around the same time as damage to a Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline (https://kyivindependent.com/finland-points-to-deliberate-damage-to-underwater-gas-pipeline/) and nearby telecommunications cable.

"We are cooperating closely with our Estonian and Finnish partners. Estonia has reported that traces of physical impacts have been found. They have also assessed that the damage to the gas pipeline and communications cable between Finland and Estonia is related to the damage to the communications cable between Sweden and Estonia," Bohlin said.

Sweden confirmed on Oct. 23 that the damage was inflicted upon the cable deliberately.

In response to the damage to the Sweden-Estonia cable and Finland-Estonia pipeline, NATO has increased (https://kyivindependent.com/nato-to-increase-baltic-sea-patrols-after-recent-damage-to-finland-estonia-pipeline/) its surveillance in the Baltic Sea. The Swedish government also said it would increase patrols.

"Due to recent events, maritime surveillance is conducted more intensively," the announcment said.….

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x793/image_174113b825aeaa96070d1f09a780d8d612c41175.png

[ORAC]

https://x.com/blschmitt/status/1716824701904068799?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


At press conference just now, #Finnish investigators release first subsea images of the #Balticconnector pipeline damage site, along with images of the “extremely heavy object” they found near the pipeline and subsequently recovered, appearing to be an anchor.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1716520887871037862.html

​​​​​​​https://x.com/cicob2/status/1716910737912987734?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.

Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Balticconnector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x759/image_51f79a6f9862590a1eeca3a34ae47b554413980d.png
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[NutLoose]

Images of the Finnish / Estonian pipeline and underwater cable damage and the anchor found beside it. Surely if it is a bow anchor they might be able to pinpoint it to a specific vessel?

https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status/1716824701904068799

https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status/1716824701904068799

[NutLoose]

Follow up on the anchor, appears to be a slam dunk. All text quotes from https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt

​​​​​​​
Additional updates from Finnish presser:
Object recovered is anchor.
Marks on seabed suggest anchor was dragged for at least *several kilometers* before hitting Balticconnector.
Seabed mark continued at least *several kilometers* after pipeline damage site.


​​​​​​​Further updates from Finnish presser:
Remains unclear still if strike is intentional or accidental so investigation still being treated as gross sabotage.
Chinese vessel <NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> remains under investigation.

​​​​​​​Important Context:
<NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> vessel managed in joint venture with Russian entity and was near Russian icebreaker <SEVMORPUT> at time of seismic event suggesting pipeline strike timing.

​​​​​​​Important Context:
fact anchor was dragged several kilometers (and that there is damage also ~200 km away at the Sweden-Estonia telecoms cable (confirmed by Estonia to be connected to the Balticconnector & FEC cable damage)……may suggest intentional action since many recent media reported cable cuts from accidental anchor drags elsewhere appear to be caused by weather or ship motion only starting a few hundreds of meters from damage site……(vessel anchors then either it’s negligent motion or weather action drag anchor into subsea infrastructure).
Both vessels were traveling over ~10knots the entire path through all three damage sites according to AIS data so no slowdown for anchoring appears to have happened…a

​​​​​https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1716851463765262739​​

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1716851463765262739

[NutLoose]

Note the cargo has shifted top left of the ship.

[Lonewolf_50]

How nice that the Chinese have decided to get into the game. I guess they were feeling left out.

[Ninthace]

How nice that the Chinese have decided to get into the game. I guess they were feeling left out.
Let us hope they have insurance, dragging an anchor is poor seamanship, where was the anchor watch?

[B Fraser]

Images of the Finnish / Estonian pipeline and underwater cable damage and the anchor found beside it. Surely if it is a bow anchor they might be able to pinpoint it to a specific vessel.

One possible way to protect vital infrastructure is to dump rocks on the pipe, cable etc. after it has been installed. It's time consuming but it protects against trawlers and other not so innocent interference.

[Ninthace]

One possible way to protect vital infrastructure is to dump rocks on the pipe, cable etc. after it has been installed. It's time consuming but it protects against trawlers and other not so innocent interference.

Fine unless you need to inspect it or get at it again.

[B Fraser]

That's the whole point. Rock dumping prevents damage and avoids the need for access. Normally on a silt seabed, a mole is used to plough in the cable. On a rocky seabed, dumping gives the required protection.

Subsea cable stability on rocky seabeds | Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) (https://www.ice.org.uk/events/latest-events/subsea-cable-stability-on-rocky-seabeds)

[Lonewolf_50]

Let us hope they have insurance, dragging an anchor is poor seamanship, where was the anchor watch? Why do you assume that this was a cock up?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1717212753516011887?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The Hungarian parliament again rejected a proposal to vote on Sweden's application to join NATO.

[jolihokistix]

China has recent practical experience of this, oops ‘mistakenly’ cutting internet cables around some of Taiwan’s islands close to the continental mainland.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/after-chinese-vessels-cut-matsu-internet-cables-taiwan-shows-its-communications-resilience/

[henra]

Let us hope they have insurance, dragging an anchor is poor seamanship, where was the anchor watch?
A bit much of a coincidence. You think they didn't notice that they dropped their anchors for several miles, i.e. close to half an hour of travel? And kept on sailing. Dunno. OK, if it were a Russian captain I would be torn 50/50 between Vodka and malice.
Anyway, that captain should be put on a denial list and be denied access to European Ports for endangering sea travel for an extended period of time.

[Asturias56]

Norwegian and Icelandic trawlers are always pulling up N sea comms lines

And anyone who thinks any crew on any merchant vessel keeps an eye out for anything happening is living in dream land

About 10 years ago a couple of tugs dragged a drilling rig for several miles through Europort before someone informed them it was actually on the bottom and they were effectively deepening the main channel (and incurring a VERY large repair bill)

[Ninthace]

I was OOW on a warship when we had to take evasive action to avoid a passenger vessel that should have given way, A pass with the searchlight confirmed nobody on the bridge at all and the autopilot in full command. Nothing surprises.
Hence my scepticism that it was deliberate. They even left their anchor as a calling card and the vessel belonged to a non combatant country.

[megan]

Ninthace, we have a group of offshore oil platforms that lay within a busy shipping route if the ships took a direct track and didn't observe the restricted area surrounding the platforms. Such was the failure of some ships to observe the restricted area that we were obliged to "beat" them up in our choppers to get their attention, likewise it seemed no one was watch keeping at times. Was so bad that for a period a standing patrol by military aircraft was put in place and later a warship.

[B Fraser]

Norwegian and Icelandic trawlers are always pulling up N sea comms lines

Your average comms cable is loaded to about 70%. In the event of a chop, the adjacent cables pick up the load. The restoration plans are exercised a few times a year and are reviewed at a jolly good booze up technical assessment meeting in a number of pleasant locations.

I hosted a UK event in Cambridge (Heathrow, Stansted close by, excellent restaurants, things to do and see etc.) and had to pick a venue for the traditional afternoon off where the host lays on transport, dinner etc. Duxford was the obvious choice however I noted a few WW2 aircraft and rang my German counterparts to ensure that no sensibilities would be offended on the day. They were delighted to have been consulted and all was well. A few months later at the event, the coaches arrived at Duxford and I noticed that a new exhibition had opened since I did a recce visit. The banners announced the new "Battle of Britain hall". I did the usual British thing of pretending it didn't exist but after a while, I wandered over and peered in to see one of the German directors photographing the diorama of the downed 109. I sidled up to him and said "this wasn't here when we spoke but it's ours now, you're not having it back". Thankfully, he burst out laughing.

Trawlers do snag cables and when they are brought up with the nets, the cable gets chopped and thrown back. Many Irish cables go via Beaufort's Dyke as not many trawlers want to fish there :E

[Asturias56]

Ninthace, we have a group of offshore oil platforms that lay within a busy shipping route if the ships took a direct track and didn't observe the restricted area surrounding the platforms. Such was the failure of some ships to observe the restricted area that we were obliged to "beat" them up in our choppers to get their attention, likewise it seemed no one was watch keeping at times. Was so bad that for a period a standing patrol by military aircraft was put in place and later a warship.

worse some of them HAVE a guy on the bridge but he's totally intoxicated.

[B Fraser]

I understand that some countries train a dog to bark whenever they see another ship. It wakes up the chap on the bridge who then feeds the dog.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1721409759809552825?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Since yesterday morning Russian state operated (subsea capable) vessel Spasatel Karev has been doing a slow dance with Finnish Coast Guard patrol Turva above pipes and comms cables of Gulf of Finland.

One (3h) focal point has been the Kaliningrad - St Petersburg comms cable.

They are not operating over the Baltic connector nor over any of the previously known damaged comms cables.

In pic: present area and Balticconnector area. The other areas outside of map to east and west.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1214x851/image_823dec60d1f08847b729d046f1bd51cbc3dfd687.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1725150103340564950?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Finland will close all its border crossings with Russia in the south.

The Finnish government has announced that only 2 crossings, Salla and Vartius, will be open starting today. This is done in response to Russia pushing illegal migrants toward the Finnish border.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1709/image_a9a5ee637cb708b44036effbe00cea088a268802.png


​​​​​​​https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1725202642903667136?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Estonia admits "partial or complete" closure of border crossing points with Russia - head of border guard Veiko Kommusaar

"Estonia was aware of Finland's decision to close four border crossing points. This could, of course, mean that people who have gathered at these borders so far will end up at Estonian border crossings," Kommusaar said.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/the_lookout_n/status/1725155125235274216?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​In relation to the situation in Finland, the Norwegian Minister of Justice:

"Norway is prepared to close the border with Russia on short notice if the situation requires it"

So far, no uptick of migrants on the Nor - Rus border crossing at Storskog.

[Asturias56]

"Norway is prepared to close the border with Russia on short notice if the situation requires it"

since all it takes is to park a bus across the entrance to the car park at Kirkenes that's not a major task.................

[NutLoose]

Finland is starting to build border barriers. With those built by Poland etc it’s beginning to feel like reverse Berlin Wall

Finland begins to build barriers on the border with the russian federation , involving its military, - Yle.

More on Finland’s border

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1726322826397745156

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1726322826397745156

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725970758973714572

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725970758973714572

​​​​​​​ One of those "migrants" who came to the Finnish border said that he was given two options: either Finland or Ukraine.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1726349169869377855?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Recent developments in Finland:

Over the past few days, Russia has sent an increasing number of migrants to Finland's borders. Finland has closed several border crossing points due to the authorities' threat assessment.

A video surfaced of the Russian operation. 1/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726349169869377855.html
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Increasing clashes on the Finnish-Russian border with migrants.

Finland reported to be considering closing the border completely UTFN.

[UWAS]

Ninthace,
My brother was OOW on a tanker when a ship hove up on the horizon heading straight for him. They tried and failed to raise the vessel on radio and started to take avoiding action when he saw a pair of paws and then a dog's head appear on the bridge wing and begin to bark. Then all hell broke loose on the other vessel and it rapidly changed course.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Ninthace,
My brother was OOW on a tanker when a ship hove up on the horizon heading straight for him. They tried and failed to raise the vessel on radio and started to take avoiding action when he saw a pair of paws and then a dog's head appear on the bridge wing and begin to bark. Then all hell broke loose on the other vessel and it rapidly changed course.

The mutt was likely only there for a couple of hours, what with it being the dog watch...

[Ninthace]

The mutt was likely only there for a couple of hours, what with it being the dog watch...
You would need another one then - for the second dog watch,

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1727019265218195811?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​"No! Go to Russia" Estonian border guards do not allow migrants to enter the country

A group of refugees from Africa and the Middle East was brought by Russian special services to the Russian-Estonian border the day before. The video was published on Tuesday, November 21, by the portal 47news.

[ORAC]

Finland has said it will close all but one crossing point on its border with Russia in an effort to halt a flow of asylum seekers to the Nordic nation, as Estonia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/estonia) accused Moscow of mounting “a hybrid attack operation” on Europe’s eastern border.

The announcement on Wednesday came after weeks of tension on the 830-mile (1,330km) border across which Helsinki accuses Moscow of guiding refugees and migrants in an apparent act of revenge for the Nordic nation’s cooperation with the US.

From midnight on Friday, said the Finnish prime minister, Petteri Orpo, the only open border crossing of Finland’s eight stations would be its northernmost at Raja-Jooseppi.…

Estonia has made preparations to follow in the footsteps of Finland and close border crossings (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/16/finland-russia-border-asylum-seekers-us-defence-agreement-sauli-niinisto) if “the migration pressure from Russia escalates”, the interior minister, Lauri Läänemets, told Reuters through a spokesperson.

“Unfortunately, there are many signs that Russian border officials and possibly other agencies are involved,” said the minister. “Quite frankly, [the] ongoing migration pressure on Europe’s eastern border is a hybrid attack operation,” he added.

Russian officials were not immediately available to comment.

[NutLoose]

Finland has closed all the Border crossings bar one with Russia, the northern one is still open, so a journey from St Petersberg to Helsinki is now a little longer.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/700x1090/f_m8itrxuaauid4_e2e2e25f7a969ef7f119dfc8e904d53c5964a269.jpg

[pilotmike]

Finland has closed all the Border crossings bar one with Russia, the northern one is still open, so a journey from St Petersberg to Helsinki is now a little longer.

Excellent presentation! What a cock-up!

[VP959]

Finland is now closing all its road border crossings with Russia: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67555626

Finland is closing all crossings on the Russian border after accusing Moscow of deliberately helping migrants into the country.

Seven of eight road posts have already shut over a rise in crossings this month.

The government now says the last, located in the Arctic Circle, will close on Thursday for two weeks.

Around 900 asylum seekers entered Finland from Russia in November, up from fewer than one a day on average.

They come from countries including Morocco, Pakistan and Syria, authorities say.

Finland is "determined to put an end to the crossings", Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said in a statement.

The government says Russia is channelling asylum seekers towards Finland in what it calls an "influence operation" and "hybrid attack", and has progressively closed more and more border posts.

The Raja-Jooseppi crossing was the last road one to remain open, but it too will be closed by Friday. A rail crossing will remain open for freight traffic.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/jvoc_kemptown/status/1739790810550304773?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​
Turkey’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee gave the green light to Sweden joining NATO on Tuesday, putting the Nordic country one step closer to membership in the alliance.

Now that the committee has approved Sweden’s membership the parliament itself could hold a vote in the coming days - and all eyes will then be on Hungary.

Viktor Orbán's government has been telling, both in public and in private, representatives of both NATO and the EU that Hungary "won't be the last” to ratify Sweden's NATO accession.

Were they telling the truth, were they telling what they believed was the truth – or were they intentionally deceiving their Western allies all this time?

Watch this space…

[Beamr]

Turkish parliament has just approved Sweden's accession to NATO.

Hungary will be last.

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-declines-orbans-push-for-nato-negotiations/

Sweden declines Orbán’s push for NATO negotiations

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström on Tuesday rejected Hungary's call to negotiate about his country's bid to join NATO.

"I see no reason to negotiate at this point," Billström said (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sverige/tobias-billstrom-om-natoprocessen/), responding to a request made by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "What we hope, of course, is that Hungary will ratify membership as soon as possible."

In a letter sent Tuesday to his Swedish counterpart Ulf Krissterson and obtained by POLITICO, Orbán called for a meeting and stressed the need for "strong mutual trust ... between Sweden and Hungary."

Budapest has bridled at Stockholm's criticism of its backsliding on the EU's democratic principles.

Orbán continued: "I invite you to visit Hungary at your earliest convenience to exchange views on all issues of common interest, including our complex bilateral relations, our future cooperation in the field of security and defence as allies and partners, and Hungary's approaching presidency of the Council of the European Union."

Billström pointed out that the "good" tone of the letter was different from Orbán's tweet, which read (https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1749711801925660883?s=20): "Today I sent an invitation letter to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson ... for a visit to Hungary to negotiate on Sweden’s NATO accession."

"You have to remember that the letter is one thing, and what is written on X is another," the Swedish minister said. "We welcome a constructive conversation."

Orbán's sudden proposal for negotiations comes as Turkey's parliament is poised to ratify Sweden's bid this week, leaving Hungary as the last NATO country stalling on Stockholm's application.

[fdr]

Orban is positioning Hungary to being the sick man of Europe, which takes some heat off other contenders. Both the EU and NATO need to revisit their wording and in fact, their assumptions in the absence of explicit wording which is the area that has empowered goats like Orban; there is no legal basis for 100% concurrence in many of the stunts that Urban pulls.