Sticky the Stick Insect Stuck on a Sticky bun

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I must say that this week the prospects for Wannabes have taken a very steep nosedive.

Make no mistake - we are facing a 1991 Gulf War situation here. Already we have the concrete event of BA stopping all recruitment. And see the following thread as a warning that hords of Ozzies are hoving over the horizon replete with rights of abode and half a dozen well used log books under each arm...
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=3&t=002482

Its a dynamic situation at the moment and the last thing I want to do is start a panic. I might think twice about signing any large training cheques in the next couple of months though. This could be a hiccup but it could also be the start of carnage again.

Fingers crossed,

WWW

[foghorn]

Too late for me, I got the MEIR put on my one-month-old CPL on Wednesday, complete with completentary full car search at Aviation House. My CV was just dropping on the doormats of many airlines on the day that the disaster happened.

I must admit that, after the sheer shock of Tuesday's events have died down, I'm now more than a little shellshocked regarding the implications of this and the Ansett collapse on the UK jobs market. It looks like things have gone from really quite rosy to completely pants overnight. Of course we won't know the full picture for a few months yet.

Luckily when compared to some my training debts are small and I have a solid back-up plan outside aviation (although I'm not sure if I can face a move back into IT).

For the time being I refuse to be forced out of the aviation industry before I've even properly joined it. I've made a conscious decision to change careers, every step has been carefully planned and gone into with my eyes open, so I'm b@ggered if the idiotic, murderous actions of a few extremist fools are going to deflect me from my goal.

Therefore my next step is to get an instructors rating and instruct (steps which were in the grand plan anyway prior to Tuesday). This will give time for things to settle down and be able to see what the near future holds for us all as wannabes.

All we can do is cross our fingers and hope.

The obvious number one knock-on effect of all this is a drop in transatlantic traffic which will hurt our long-haul airlines. What remains to be seen is how much the short haul and regional airlines further down the foodchain are affected. These are sensitive to the following three implications of the WTC disaster:

- a loss of interlining/feeder traffic from transatlantic flights;
- a drop in the public confidence in flying;
- a UK and European economic downturn caused by an acceleration of the US downturn after Tuesday's events.

On the plus side we should remember the BA retirement bulge has not been changed by last week's events and that this has the potential to act as a major cushion on any drop in pilot demand. This may be better news for those already with licenses than those seeking sponsorship.

Best of luck to all out there who are in a similar position to me at this time.

foggy.

[ 16 September 2001: Message edited by: foghorn ]

[JetMouse]

Ok a tad worrying. Exactly how long did the previous "carnage" in 1991 last?

As someone who is taking my Class 1 next week and hopefully taking my PPL over Christmas, i feel i would not be as badly effected as those who are nearing completion of the ATPLs or even worse the CPL flight skills...

So WWW what would your advice be to those about to start on the flight training path and to those who have already successfully navigated a good proportion of it?

In my particular situation, apart from having a good back up plan (ie good job, degree etc) would you suggest postponing the start of my training or continue and see how the situation unfolds?

Do you have a crystal ball handy?

[Red Snake]

From the people I knew in '91 and what I can still remember, a 737 rating got you re-hired between 6 months & 2 years later. Some of the wannabes at the time were still instructing in 1996 (I was one of them, although I took a convoluted route via the U.S.).

[BmPilot21]

Don't forget the 'retirement bulge' is still going to happen. Air travel is (was?) still expanding, and up to a few weeks ago flight international kept going on about an up-and-coming pilot shortage. The situation is different to the gulf war, but I can understand the comparisons.

Not a good time to be looking for a job.

[David Johnson]

I think that this confirms a simple truism. That is that the aviation industry is very buoyant.

Whenever I have typed messages to inspire younger wannabes time and time again I have stressed along with others the need for a backup plan.

Determination, motivation and the will to suceed are the ingredients for success but these must be coupled with planning.

Where does that planning start? I would say at age 16 before people choose their A-Level subjects. That is because it is your A-Level subjects that will basically shape your future and dictate what fields you can go into.

For example - mine choices in order of preference are:

Pilot
Air Traffic Controller
Aicraft Engineer

It is quite possible that all of these may be effected but at least my degree of Aeromechanical Systems Engineering will allow me to go into the military world - say for BAE SYSTEMS to work on military technology. If not there, my degree allows me to show skills that are needed and wanted in many workplaces.

The above applies to me and is merely there as an example...but I think that the moderators and many other people would agree that planning is critically important from an early stage.

[VFE]

What effect this will have on pilot recruitment and us wannabes is difficult to predict. It could go either way. If you weigh up the advantages and disadvantages though, I think you will see a balance. As an example; there are going to be alot of kids quickly forgetting the idea of becoming a pilot after Tuesdays events and as has already been mentioned, the retirements will still happen.
The world is still going to be dependant on air travel however risky.
We must remember that however much the airlines were involved on Tuesday they were just a tool in the attack and there are still many others ways for terrorists to hit governments. Airlines will be too tougher a target for terrorists to manipulate after Tuesdays events for them to seriously consider them in the same way again.....we hope.

It's a shaky time for all on this planet but the planet will still keep turning regardless. Keep your chin up!

VFE.

[redsnail]

I wouldn't say hords. Many are still waiting to find out what Tuesday's meeting will bring. Virgin Blue are taking a few on, especially the ones with 737 time. Although, whether or not they take the 89's is yet to be seen. QF can't shift all the pax plus they have been recruiting fairly steadily over the past year as well. They'll probably take a few too. The various asian airlines will take some. Of course, there is the possibility that a "smaller" AN will emerge, however, that is yet to be realised too.
If Kendell and the rest of the regionals fall then things could change.
All in all, I reckon possibly 100 or so. Most of them would have to do the 14 exams and that takes a while (as we all know).
A few who went over in 89 just may decide to return home.....
So, I have seen a few cycles, it will slow things up a bit, but it certainly isn't time to be jumping off a bridge, nor, borrowing a large sum of cash (just yet).

[trolleydollylover]

I remember a few weeks ago being chastised for not wanting to sell my properties to pay for my ATPL.

My answer was simple...the properties are my insurance policy. Now sadly I may heave to wait longer. But like the rest of you I will not give up. You just have to have more resolve.

Nobody ever said that it was going to be easy, but not this hard. I am determined to succeed and the jobs will always be there for those who really want them.

Chins held high one and all, through these difficult times.

[DiverDriver]

Again I’m more than a little confused. Are the vast majority of wannabes looking to go straight into the majors once they have got their new fATPL/IR/MCC or are they like me expecting to have to serve their time in the little league, instruct, charter, cargo etc. From my position it will be at least another 8 months before I complete the ATPL ground school (distance learning) and a further 8-12 months to get the CPL/IR or CPL AFI and IR later (having to work full time). From then on who knows but the one thing I do know is that the vast majority of instructors I’ve know seem to go this route and when they do they can expect to be building time (the sort of time and experience the majors are looking for) for a further 18 months to two years.
My point is this, if you take these sorts of time scales into account you’re looking at 2.5 to 3 years via the modular route before you’re in a realistic position to be taken seriously by the bigger employers (excepting the lucky few of course).
If this is a credible route, and I hope it is cause that’s what I intend to do, I would hope that any world/airline recession or ramifications from Tuesdays sad events will be well and truly over by then. Never the less I do accept that if you have invested 50-60k from the outset without any fall back or contingency for alternative employment then the idea of having to make do for a couple of years earning 16-20k via this route may not be an option. However there seems to be a further advantage of taking this more laborious route and that is you get to meet and make very useful acquaintances within the industry and again from my experience you stand a lot better chance at an interview if you’ve been recommended by a man who knows a man who knows etc…

Bottom line I understand the concerns that we all have for the availability of opportunities when we finish our training but to give up on my dream just because the game just got tougher is not an option. It may take me longer but I do intend to finish the game….. I hope you lot do too. Good Luck to all.

[Token Bird]

I have to say the timing of the unfortunate events last week came at a perfect point in my life - one day after I handed in my notice at my well-paid IT job in order to commence my modular training!

Oh well, never mind, next month I am off to South Africa to do my ATPLs and some hour building over the lovely countryside, then I shall return to the UK for a CPL/ME and FI(R). I shall then have the joy of being either:

a. homeless and unemployed
b. forced to go back into IT

Don't think my pride can take the second option. Anyway, I hope WWW doesn't close my thread as advertising, but if anyone out there finds themself in a similar position next summer, I am willing, for a contribution to parking fees, to offer up sleeping space in my Renault 5, which I'm sure I can make really homely with some nice curtains and a few choice items from Ikea,

TB

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There's definitely trouble down't mill.

NY stock eschange opens in the next few minutes. I hope we don't see major airlines going bankrupt in the next 48hrs as a result.

BA is now worth less than Ryanair in terms of market capitalisation... :-(

This could be bad. I am starting to comtemplate seriously advising those not already committed to suspend any notion of training at the moment.

For those that don't remember the early 1990's in aviation it was very very grim. Flying instruction was generally unpaid at flying schools, guys with thousands of jet hours were fighting tooth and nail to get work hauling night freight, the were no pay rises for years, Captain were sent to the RHS, F/O's were sent to pour tea and coffee or lose their job. Everyone was frightened for their job and there was a general atmosphere of misery for those trying to get into commercial aviation.

I really really hope we are going to avoid that but I have my doubts.

Forget the BA retirement bulge. It will be more than eaten up by the drop in demand. Also BA have been pouring - what - 160 cadets a year into the front line since the mid 90's which has taken a lot of the heat out of it. A lot of their 55 captains entering retirement are also no actually leaving the industry - they do another 5+ years in other airlines thus the effect is being held off for some time.

DO NOT make the mistake of thinking that all the airlines in the UK will be around in 12 months time. I don't think they will. That means a hell of a lot of type rated pilots hit the market in one week and guess what happens to your immaculate CV, 200hrs and cheeky grin...?

Fingers crossed, their could be a lot to talk about on Nov 10th at the Flyer flight training exhibition - PPRuNe has a big stand by the way and I'll be there with the usual suspects.

Come along - we'll drown sorrows afterwards :-(

WWW

[Polar_stereographic]

WWW,

You're a brave man. I'm sure there are many out there predicting the opposite too. After all, the US interest rates have dropped by a whole half a percent, and some people predict that will go a long way to offset the worst. All cristal ball stuff imho, and it takes nuts to voice what cannot be predicted.

PS

[ 17 September 2001: Message edited by: Polar_stereographic ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Interest rates work over a period of months. Airlines go bust in weeks if not days.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Virgin laying off 1200 staff:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/news id_1549000/1549068.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1549000/1549068.stm)


This is getting real bad real quick. Wall street is in free fall as I type.
Sorry.

WWW

[ 17 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]

[trolleydollylover]

WWW

I am glad to see that a moderator is finally seeing what is going on in the aviation buisness. What you have posted makes sense, It is something that I have been preparing for over the last year, however I must admit that I never would have believed that it would have been so drastic.

If the US does attack Afganistan then there will be many, many job losses.

Prehaps you should pass your pearls of wisdom to Scroggs.

Good luck one and all, we may need it, unless daddys got a Porsche, and its not an automatic.

[barnaby]

Honestly chaps and chappesses, why not wait and see what unfolds rather than doing so much speculating. Anyone who has the desire to do the hard work, spend the hard earned/borrowed cash will succeed! Even if at the end of it all there are no jobs going, there will be eventually.

Let's face it, people like us who have the intelligence/balls to do something like this will never be short of work, whether it be in aviation or not. What's the point of having plan B when you might not need to implement it for a year or two. Just get stuck in, get the license under our belts and see what happens.

This is not the sprit of the English! I'm sure that in a few months time, when everything has settled down, we'll all wonder what the hype was all about and those that decided to delay their courses will be gutted that they are 6 months further back then they should be!

Ciao, hope I haven't riled any deep emotions.........

[Lightning ace]

I think WWW hit it on the head.

This will be much worse that '91 , especially if Bush wipes Afganistan from the face of the planet.

Several UK operations will fold or merge. There will be a supply of type rated several thousand hour recently redundant pilots out there. This will soak up any fresh jobs for a couple of years I feel.
Yes at the smaller end of the scale as well. It will be that bad and there will be that many out of work, they will have to chose from a different career or fly an F27 for channex @ £ 25K pa. instead of that airbus or boeing.

Especially for all those self funded guys out there, like me. It will be better to sit on the money and wait. I was due to start SFT on 17 dec, full time. But will that put that back 1 year for starters. In 12months time I will either go for it or wait another year. In the mean time I will bank the £ 25K for the course and continue to earn £ 30k pa.

As WWW / Scroggs have said, try and keep a backup plan. Aviation is a funny business at the best of times.

God bless humanity :( :( :( :(

[Polar_stereographic]

Goodness gracious me,

Barnaby, I'm with you.

I'm not saying we are or are not about to go into a depression, but if all this doom and glooms talk keeps on, we'll talk ourselves into one whether it happens around us or not.

Chins up, and make the best of what's around at the time. If you are dead set on a career in aviation, well this is not going to stop you, and if it did, maybe it's not for you. However, go into it with your eyes open, and I'm with WWW etc on that one.

PS

pps, I'm hoping and planning for the best.

[VFE]

Let's not go slitting our wrists just yet folks!

This will be much worse that '91 , especially if Bush wipes Afganistan from the face of the planet.

I think Bush is aware of that and will adjust his measures accordingly. The best thing everyone in the western world can do is keep up morale and not let the b@stards grind us down. Get the passengers back in the air and stay positive.

The more I think about it the more I can see that a heavy handed reaction from the US military will worsen the whole situation. Think about it. Will wiping Afghanistan out really convice Joe Public that these terrorists are no more? Probably. But the truth as most of us know is that these terrorists are all over the world, not just in Afghanistan, and they are prepared to do more evil. Doing Bin Laden in won't alter a thing really. He has many devoted followers. Bush will know what the financial repercussions of an all out assualt on the terrorists will be. What I cannot figure out is how will he know where to attack but that's by the by!
This is one hell of a catch 22 situation if ever I saw one.
Nobody can predict the outcome and at what cost.
My advice would be to sit on your money and wait but how long are you prepared to wait for? This could go on for years and if that's the case then I seriously cannot see the airline business suffering indefinately. People will simply have to get back on those planes.

It could be very grim but let's just see what happens hey? :rolleyes:

VFE.

[ 17 September 2001: Message edited by: VFE ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look this is just a PERSONAL OPINION. I coudl well be wrong. But, if it were me just about to hand in my notice and bet the farm on a CPL/IR course next week (and I have a good friend who has just done this a fortnight ago - STRESS!!) I would stop.

I really would. And therefore, if anyone asks me directly, thats what I will tell them. Take from that what you will.

Initially I would wait 3 months to see how the fog of war clears. Inthat 3 months you can still probably do something constructive like add you your savings and study some manuals or checklists.

If things look OK by Christmas then go for it then. You've only lost 3 months of a 30odd year career probably.

What I worry about is a triple whammy:

1) Sudden drop in passenger numbers as a direct result of the WTC attack. Both leisure and business as economic uncertainty hovers.

2) The failure of a UK airline as we enter a hugely unstable period and the tradtional Autumn time when these things tend to happen most frequently. One airline failure usually supplies the demand for pilots for the best part of a year.

3) 850 odd Ansett pilots with the right to live in the UK might hove over the horizon as Oz and the Asian markets remain stagnant which would have the same effect as 2)

All three could conspire to give us 1991 all over again.

Hope not.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I can confirm that British Midland have indeed cancelled their sponsorship scheme as of yesterday afternoon.

If you are not on a training course forget it. If you are in training then apparently there is not firm decision but training is to continue. I expect a repeat of what has gone before whereby new cadets are sent to work as Cabin Crew for a while or are sent to other operators for a spell.

Given that the centre plank of BMI's plans involved trans Atlantic services things do not look great for BMI future recruitment needs.

This wannabe recruitment crisis is developing very quickly.

WWW

[skysoarer]

Interestingly, the european markets have actually recovered a little. Not all doom and gloom ... but mostly...

SS

[Flypuppy]

Dunno how true this rumour is, but have heard that the BA CEP scheme has been terminated and that all training has also been stopped. Hope it isnt true, but can anyone squash this rumour?

[Facts Not Fiction Pls]

It doesn't help Virgin that its transatlantic partner Continental is talking of going down the tubes! Maybe a probable fertilizer for the loss of Virgin jobs.

A source for Virgin tells me that all is not to worry - they are looking to offer early retirement and extended breaks for those wishing to take unpaid leave. They have a plan. At least it hasn't got to the stage of the US where the government is looking to involve a great deal of grant money (20 Billion mentioned) to stop the Airlines falling. That indicates big time problems in the industry for the government to be putting their hand in their pockets!

[Checkboard]

Hi all.

I rarely spend time in this forum, although recent events at my airline have increased my curiosity a little! I am slightly surprised by the quality of the discussion, as I honestly expected a small re-run of some of the threads I read here in the last year relating to foreign crews (and I include myself here) operating in the UK. I know WWW had a bit of a letter writing campaign a year or so ago about it.

I really don't think the issues involving Ansett will have that much of an effect on the UK market. As Reddo pointed out many will find employment in Australia once the industry restructures, many don't have access to working rights in the UK and of those who do many won't think the aggravation involved in moving to another country is really worth it.

It isn't easy to contemplate such a major move - especially in the current climate. Although my Grandmother provides me with a four year working visa to the UK, meeting the requirements for a permanent stay is difficult, and the cost involved in transferring to a JAA licence (as Reddo knows) is somewhat prohibitive.

One of the requirements to change a four year visa to a permanent stay is that the applicant remain employed throughout the initial four years. Now if it takes six months to a year to transfer my Oz licence to a JAA one - I don't know, even if I obtain immediate employment, I (or any other Australian in the same situation) could be considered to meet that requirement.

I have about 7300 hours total, 5400 of that on jet aircraft (about 500 on the 737 and 3700 on the BAe 146). I have had an indication from some friends in the UK that that experience makes me a strong candidate for UK airlines, however obtaining a position would be difficult, I would imagine, if I can only guarantee three to three and a half years to an operator before I am forced to leave the country.

Should a major operator in the UK go under (fingers crossed that doesn't happen) then the market in the UK may become so poor as to tip the balance against risking the time and money required for the move.

Now, this still requires a bit of research for me to even determine if the option is viable - so I really wouldn't worry about "hoards of Aussies" launching themselves upon the UK market.

[ 18 September 2001: Message edited by: Checkboard ]

[FLY BY NIGHT]

What I don't understand is everyones determination to sit at the front of a big shiny tube with a television in front of them and to consider nothing else. Ace. Im sure the folks flying those F27's for Channex are very happy with their lot in life. Why do so many chaps who are new to the business reject these older types. Hell! £25,000/year to do something you love doing seems fair enough, at that point your still a junior. Lets hope the industry doesn't go down the pan, but whether it does or not an F27 sounds good to me.

[Lightning ace]

Fly by Night

With three friends flying F27's for Channex. I would never belittle them or any other turbo pilot.

My point was that with job losses at the top end, with the major players. There will be some moderately qualified pilots filling those vacant seats below. Simply because they still love the job and can life on the salary ( after a couple of years as a Ba captain you must surely have paid your mortgage off ?????)

Yes there will still be jobs out there. But at least halved.

Any comments on this theory WWW :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Indeed. In the early 90's this happened a lot.

It seems that what we know at the moment is that BA and BMI have cancelled sponsorship. I cannot conceive at the moment that you'll be seeing sponsorship adverts this Autumn from Air2000 or Airtours.

For the moment - UK sponsorship is dead.

:(

WWW