The death of pilot recruitment 4 a long time???

[Speedbird20]

I am not a pesimist!! Please I mearly want to know what all you fellow wannabes think now about this, we are all in the same boat togehther here. Today I heard on CNN Continental are laying off 1200 jobs as are other American Airlines. I my self am British so I am constantly wathcing the news and reading the papers to see what BA are going to do. I cant help the feeling that what happens in the US will also follow suit here. Please I am not here to put any one off becoming pilots, I know we are all determined enough to make that right hand seat one day, i just want to know your views as the wannabe community...

Godbless all the victims of Tuesdays horrific attacks, our prayers as the Aviation community go out to them.

[EGDR]

It's not 1200 jobs but 12,000 - I shuddered !!

[scroggs]

Continental suggest that they will need to reduce their entire program (routes, personnel and costs) by about 20%. Other US airlines have said much the same. It would not be credible to suggest that Europe will fare any better. I actually expect the final figures to be somewhat worse than that, although only in the short term.
Obviously this will affect recruiting considerably, and for some time. How much, and for how long, no-one knows. We are far too close to the events of last week to make a sensible judgement yet. Let the dust settle for a month or two before you try and guess the long term prospects.

[beamer]

Young Scroggs is quite correct - it will take
some time for the full effects of last weeks
events to become clear for the airline industry across the world.

My own prediction will be for a major reduction in US loads both national and
international as quite understandably the
USA goes back into its shell for quite some
time - it has happened before. UK and Euro
transatlantic operators will also see a big
reduction in demand for flights to North
America. Inter European and domestic services in the UK will be less affected due
to perceived higher levels of security allied
to the fact that the UK and to a lesser extent Europe have lived with this threat for
a long time.

Security will have to be improved everywhere
and airlines will have to reschedule their
programmes according to realistic turn-round
times. This is bad news for low-cost operators who rely on quick turnrounds and
holiday charter operators who plan totally
unrealistic programmes in the summer season
notably at weekends.

The big question really is whether the world
allows itself to be brought to its knees by
terrorists of every description. Surely the
correct response is to be strong in character
and demonstrate by carrying on our business
that we will not give in to these people -
show the flag, prove we are better than them,
and strike when and only when the links are
proved and targets legitimate.

Response so far :

Mayor of NY 10/10
Clinton 9/10
Blair(Campbell) 6/10
Bush Jnr (who) 2/10
NY/DC citizens - total sympathy/admiration

[VFE]

Should be interesting to see how this thread pans out.

My side is that things are gonna be tougher than ever but airlines will still need pilots so the opportunity will always be there to fly professionally.
On a personal note I am due to start an integrated course in a few days and it's a compelling time to say the least that maybe I've been rather unlucky in my timing. £20'000 already paid and no realistic way of delaying or getting a refund so I am keeping up my morale and going for it regardless of scumbag terrorists. No choice. The more wannabes that drop out of the chase the better as far as I am concerned so don't start training kids!!!!

[Captain Numpty]

Yes........I think it's curtains for anyone wishing to train in the USA as well, at least for the forseeable future.

A very good friend of mine is a Senior Capt with AA and has basically told me to forget it, as his believes the training of non-nationals with only be available to those who can afford the extoroniate fees that Schools will now inevitably charge to train. He also thinks that "Background checks/ and personal references will be common place too for anyone embarking on such a career!! Not that that will be any problem for those "honest and professionally" minded people among us!

Sorry for the gloomy opinion folks

C.N.

[ 16 September 2001: Message edited by: Captain Numpty ]

[Grandad Flyer]

Well I'm not convinced. America was in recession before the dreadful events of last week. They already were flying with low loads and the pilots at most of the majors had won huge payrises.
In the UK we are not in recession.
People are still going to go on business and on holiday. I think America will not get as much traffic as before, not for a few months anyway but it will get back to normal if nothing else happens.
It looks like oil prices are rising, which won't help.
I think maybe BA will put a halt on recruiting and maybe downsize a little but as there are still lots of pilots retiring I can't see that they will make people redundant.
People will still be going on holiday.
I know BA is of importance due to their cadet scheme but there are a hell of a lot more UK airlines than BA!
OK, they are the biggest but they were going through a tough time anyway, when other airlines are doing very well.
Of course, if America starts a bombing campaign then things will change.
But right now, its not the best time to train but I think there will still be jobs out there.

[VFE]

America was verging on a recession before Tuesdays events. The only reason they weren't into a full-blown one was because consumer spending was so high. High my ass, people are using their credit cards and when they've maxed them out the country's up the creek without the ole paddle!

There has been alot of talk about the UK being 'technically' in a recession too. On the other hand the pundits reckoned it was just the manufacturing industry that was on a downer. I think a full-blown recession must be enevitable for the UK and USA now.

VFE.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Just because your chances of stepping into a 737 cockpit before your 400th hour have disappeared for a while doesn't mean there is no hope for a career in flying.

Most of us non-wannabees learnt to fly in a time where jobs were scarce and the Airlines hadn't hired anyone for years.

When I learnt to fly in the early 80s a job at all was a hard thing to find, a job flying a twin(C310/BN2 etc) was next to impossible with less than 1000 hrs.

I would think the RAF might be hiring if this gets out of hand!!

Chuck.

[Dolfke]

Hello there,
There does indeed seem to be some tough times ahead for you guys in the US and UK.
Over here in Belgium things have been like that already for over a year. Everyone in the businness knows that Sabena (and it's daughters), Citybird, Virgin Express and in fact any other Belgian airline isn't really doing well. On top of that we recently changed from a Belgian to the Jar licence. This means there are now about 200 frozen ATPL pilots (who need 1500h to change their Belgian licence to a Jar one) waiting for a job, some of them already more than a year. Luckily they started a group ABePA who's trying their best to get them jobs and they are the only ones to do anything.
The FTO's just drop their students when they finish their training, while they should try to get thtem more chances to get a job.
So over here the recession in the airline business has already struck, but now it seems all other countries are trying to follow our example (great! :( ).
I have almost finished my ground training so I still have to get my flight training (in the US :p ), so all I can say is to keep your hopes up. We will get up there in the right seat (even if it takes somewhat longer).

[topunicyclist]

I'd agree with others' opinions in this thread that it's probably way too early to say. Indeed the news from the airlines certainly is not good (I had the phone call from BA yesterday putting off my application indefinately), but I think only time will tell how big the impact will be. Until a certain amount of time has elapsed and the general public has had a chance to book/not book/cancel reservations, I think it is impossible to determine with any certainty what the likely impact will be for airlines here in Europe.

[Speedbird20]

I think that we all must be optomistic for the future now. What lyes around the corner from here no one knows, but this thing will blow over eventually and everything will be all right in the end. How long it will take again no one knows. Perhaps one bad event like this could lead to a good one?!
Good luck to you all and stay hopefull enjoy the flying, cos at least they can never take that away from us... ;)

[G SXTY]

During my last (ever?) jump seat ride, not 3 weeks ago, the KLMUK captain was full of encouragement and optimism about the job prospects for wannabes. The only thing that would jeopardise it, he casually mentioned, would be a crisis in the Middle East . . .

I guess I can count myself lucky that I was always going to go modular, and that finances meant it would take a good 3 years or so (I’m currently 20 hours into my PPL, clocking up a whopping 2 hours per month). I really feel for those people who’ve just committed to an integrated course.

Giving up didn’t cross my mind for a second. I’ll just slow things down where necessary (e.g. doing the ATPL writtens by distance learning rather than full time) and forget any idea I had about packing in the day job. This will have the added advantage of making the whole thing a little more affordable.

And then, if I’m really really lucky, I’ll finish my IR just as the industry starts to pick itself up again. That’s the theory anyway. I’ll come back to you in 2004 & let you know how I got on.

Good luck to you all, especially my mate at Jerez. Thinking of you. . .

[DESCEND WHEN READY]

Things aren't so good in OZ at the moment either with alot of very expereinced and not to happy Ansett pilots flooding the employment scene. Qantas bringing in Canadian planes and pilots to move the backlog of pax will make even the most happiest Oz pilots dark