Pilot demand and supply - who has the figures?

[Swept]

As an ex-mil pilot looking to enter the airline sector I have spent 18 months watching the recruitment sites, reading all the PPRune threads pertinent to new jobs and must have applied to over 100 jobs with only 1 offer of interview.

All jobs seem to demand TR and experience, which is fair enough, but when does the supply of these TR qualified pilots end? There is only a finite number of companies offering jobs to non-TR pilots. I am sure recruitment agencies and HR Depts, of the larger carriers, have a good idea of when they have to re-adjust their entry qualifications to cater to their demand for new pilots.

I am sure there are many out there struggling to get on the first step of the ladder (without paying a hideous sum of money) so any information (rumour or otherwise) is always much appreciated.

Non-TR
TT 3500hrs

[glendalegoon]

do I take it you are not in the USA?

[Swept]

I am European and currently working in the ME. All jobs in the USA seem to only be open to qualified individuals with right to work and live in the USA.

[talkpedlar]

1 Nationality?

2 Age?

3 Are your 3500 hours all fixed-wing?

Good luck in your search but more info needed!

[Swept]

This isn't a tout for work, far from it. It's a request for more info from any PPRuners with HR knowledge about the metrics of the recruitment world. I just see all these jobs being advertised month after month which leads me to believe that the Asian market may be struggling to recruit. They are still requesting TR pilots. Some day the supply pool will become exhausted. HR/Recruitment agencies will have analysed this and the question is what are the results of those studies?

For the record: Nationality: British, Age:41, Hours 3500 fixed wing (2500 ME FJ AUW 25t)

Thanks

[mad_jock]

problem is Swept even when you have the whole group of the training team wanting a certain thing the accountants will always go for the cheapest option.

The low hours cadetships have significant tax advantages for the company. They basically get a free pilot for two years.

And I doubt very much if anyone has analysed it. Airlines are lucky to know what's happening in 3 months time never mind years in advance. Until the supply dry's up they won't do anything about it. FR and EZY are pumping through enough 737 and A320 pilots to supply the market for years. The can afford to over crew significantly because if the crew don't fly they don't get paid. I don't think the supply will ever run out on those types.

There is no problem with FO's there are thousands of them, the thing that company's are struggling to get is high experienced Captains with training experience.

[talkpedlar]

I'm ex 737 and 757 and have spent the last 27 months in the Middle-East in a selection and recruitment role for one of the big carriers.. I hope that the following points help:

1 IMHO you should not read too much into certain airlines constantly advertising for new pilots; my former employer held thousands of applications on file but many applicants fail to maintain currency, class 1 etc

2 In any case, it was company policy to always attract the best candidates available...not just those whose CV was already on file. (LoCo operators please note, some of the very best candidates have not applied yet!)

Swept, I'm sorry but I think that you might be looking for data/info which has not been formally collated or analysed.. but the very best of luck all the same.

[Swept]

Thanks talkpedlar, maybe my expectations are too high but it's great to hear people's opinions and mad jock strikes a true chord. I'm lucky enough to have had over 20 years flying. If I don't get a job in the civilian sector in the next 5 years I will go on to Plan B. It's just a shame that many younger guys do not have that option!

[pinoyboy]

big supply.
hold here faa atp single and multi land and sea, cfi , agi, glider, 1st medical etc darn ive even done the flt engr written test , 2800 total, a320 and b737 type and have been all over asia and no luck ! no time on type !? sorry... also have the canadian and filipino ATP as well , tried philippines , not even an interview, and i have a permanent resident visa too, they dont even have to sponsor me! no luck.i asked the Hr lady at cebu "what about the pilot shortage" and she stated that nearly every day someone comes and hands in a resume' in person, and they get dozens a week of qualified pilots sending in their resumes via email and have over a thousand on file" i spoke with a sim instructor and he told me they over hired (especially on the a330) and that they may start looking again in august. there are jobs in the usa since its so costly to get trained and many banks are unwilling to finance students due to default dangers since the wages are so low (inability to pay back loan) yes in the usa you do need a work permit but many other countries require citizenship....

[Greg2041]

Swept, this is a really interesting thread and I am glad you started it.

In aviation, the supply/demand and future planning has always appeared haphazard. I remember in the 80's, there was near panic as suddenly all the pilots had retired and they were taking on nearly anyone who had a passion for flying and paying for it. I find it difficult to understand how the powers that be had not planned for that.

Currently, there are 1000's of pilot jobs out there and I know this because all the companies advertising training courses keep telling me. What they don't say is that those positions are already filled!

With your experience and background, I would have thought it would have been a given that you would get a job with a major airline. That just goes to show how many others don't stand a chance.

Good luck with Plan A or maybe Plan B and do take a look at the CAA website as they do have some interesting work for ex-military pilots from time to time.

All the best and thank you for serving!

[JW411]

I had a long and successful career in aviation (military and civil). What I can tell you is that you can do as much planning as you like but, in the end, the only thing that matters is who was there when the phone rang?

[macdo]

I'd agree with the above comment. Right place, right time and the right contact gives you the lucky break. Mine came after 18 months of searching, an off hand comment that an airline was looking for a few new guys, headed to their head office, got lucky that the right guy was in that day, coffee, chat, hand over CV, start date. Just a lucky break, thank God! Good luck OP.

[lifeafteraviation]

I think the main question of the OP wasn't so much about how to find a job as to how can the demand for pilots worldwide be so high yet it's such a difficult career to break into and what is the breaking point.

Currently worldwide the demand for certain current and rated pilots exceeds the supply so there are huge salaries and pretty much a guarantee of a job if you have at least 500 PC hours in type. Right now if you have PC time in Airbus A320-A330, CRJ, ERJ, or any current Boeing series it's really easy to find a high paying job somewhere in the world. With the A320 it's become ridiculous with airlines simply leaching off each other for current TR pilots.

To a lesser extent there is demand for experienced first officers.

Most of these airlines are operating in countries that don't have internal resources to meet demand so they hire foreign pilots at very high salaries. Due to limitations within their own regulating agencies they are limited to hiring only current and TR pilots. They are able to transition or upgrade pilots once they've got some experience but they're pretty inefficient at doing this.

Due to economic slowdowns in Europe and the Americas there has been a surplus of such pilots in those parts that are willing and able to meet the demand in Asia and the Middle East but that surplus is drying up quickly as many pilots return to their home countries as business picks up. In the US, additional factors are driving this demand.

At the same time the economic growth in China is slowing slightly but the demand for pilots is still very strong and the horrendous management of these airlines means they continue to shoot themselves in the foot and artificially drive up demand and raise salaries. You would think the natural reaction to a slowing economy would be to improve efficiency but it doesn't appear to be happening yet.

So the real question is....at what point do they realize they can't meet the demand with this game of musical chairs competing to fill seats with a diminishing supply of current and TR pilots? The only options would be to take experienced pilots such as yourself and qualify them in type such as many western airlines do.

In Hong Kong and Japan they're already doing this to some extend and will hire experienced and inexperienced pilots and place them within the company depending on qualifications. In the US it's unlikely to happen this way due to the limitations of the traditional seniority list structure and you must always start at the entry level position regardless or your previous experience. Most pilots prefer to work for one quarter to one third of what they can earn overseas for the substantial benefits of living in their home country. Even domestically, however, the airlines will leach pilots off one another as pilots move to fill jobs and airlines that offer better long term advancement and better working conditions despite very low starting pay. This will drive up availability of entry level first officer positions in the US, the Americas and probably in Europe soon too.

In China and some other Asian countries they simply don't have the training infrastructure or knowledge of how to do this. It's not a difficult problem to solve but they are very slow to move.

My prediction with China is they will continue to raise salaries in an attempt to retain and attract pilots but will fail nevertheless. Short of fixing their own internal training issues they may resort to hiring experienced non rated pilots and training them in house or contracting such training overseas, the latter being the most viable solution for them.

As far as a time scale I think we are just beginning to see the effects of this trend and it will become more apparent over the next few years so just hang in there.

[Three Lions]

It can help if you split the industry down into two parts then ask the same question. The first been the "career jobs" the second the "contract sector".

There are lots of guys out in the contract sector trying to get into the career job sector

There are lots of rated pilots out there with experience on type, and many not in the jobs they would like to build a career at.

You also have lots of guys with experience but not on the type that helps bag the career job.

Then the guys either training or fresh out of training.

In the UK you also have quite a population of cadets from preferred schools that go straight into the career jobs straight from flight school, wiich further narrows the available number of career jobs

Depends what sort of flying you are looking for, if you are comfortable spending your career moving round the world every two or three years id guess it isnt unreasonable to state this shouldnt be too difficult with a rating on your licence, with the possibility of earning money to ensure a very good standard of living in the country you would end up in

If you are looking for a job close to home with good t&cs then that is a completely different kettle of fish. That said some people do drop lucky....

With regard the figures, its possible thay arent avaialable as I am sure that two or three of the schools in the UK would have them plastered on the first page of their websites if these statistics were available

Good luck

[lifeafteraviation]

It can help if you split the industry down into two parts then ask the same question. The first been the "career jobs" the second the "contract sector".

There are lots of guys out in the contract sector trying to get into the career job sector

There are lots of rated pilots out there with experience on type, and many not in the jobs they would like to build a career at.

You also have lots of guys with experience but not on the type that helps bag the career job.

I don't really follow your line of thought....it's a bit confusing.

"Contract jobs" Are you referring to medium to long term contracts or short term contracts such as single trip jobs or for a few months at a time?

I am guessing by "career jobs" you mean airlines that bring you on as an employee for as long as you can stay? Most companies that hire contract pilots do so through third parties but also have full time employees as well. They use contract employees to fill temporary demand.

Also, in order to get a "contract job" you almost always must be current and rated which means you came from a "career job" that either didn't work out...usually due to a furlough, shut down, or downgrade, or because you want more pay and opportunity for better equipment. Some people are able to take a leave of absence.

There is really no such thing as a long term stable job as a pilot anymore except for a few lucky ones. There is no way to predict what is the next global airline to close it's doors and the world is full of pilots who landed the perfect job when they were young only to be out of work with no pension ten years or worse...twenty years later. It's better to think of your profession as the career rather than the seeing the company you work for as the career. Having the flexibility to demand higher salaries by forcing companies to compete for experienced pilots is good for pilots. This is why airlines like to keep pilots locked into seniority lists....to control them and prevent them from forcing airlines to compete for their services.

The point is it doesn't really matter because all these factors drive up global demand and that's good for all pilots.

[Three Lions]

apologies for the lack of clarity

a "career job" is one where you are employed on the books. I suspect most people would be most interested in these sort of jobs

my meaning of "contract jobs" is any job other than that.

Also, in order to get a "contract job" you almost always must be current and rated which means you came from a "career job" that either didn't work out...usually due to a furlough, shut down, or downgrade, or because you want more pay and opportunity for better equipment.

This may be situation in some cases, however id warrant a guess the majority of the people interested in these recruitment figures are currently working on building experience, possibly working contracts and building experience hoping to secure a job on the books with a decent operator, and not having left a decent on the books job to commence working as a contract pilot (although there are some advantages for some people to do this)

Althought the industry has changed and money rules there are still good operators out there who the majority want to work for

[RTO]

I'd say the supply of typerated individuals willing to fly for free is infinate and the demand is limited. I would strongly recommend to not attempt a "career" in the airline industry. For those joining now the outlook is horrible and getting worse every day. I've been in the industry for a long time and I sincerely wish I choose a different path.

[glendalegoon]

here is an idea for you. watch the airlines that are getting a new type of plane. these airlines will over hire for a while so that they can train new guys to fly the old planes while training the old guys on the new planes. Once the new planes are all filled with newly trained pilots, the old planes go to the boneyard and eventually you are out of a job (furlough).

so, watch who is buying the new types and concentrate on getting a job there. and even though you may get into a furlough situation later on, the airlines need to keep the old planes flying and your training should be attractive.

I feel sorry for the over seas guys , the USA way of doing things seems a bit more fair.

[737 Jockey]

You could try the Flight Training Schools for information. They always seem to have very positive news regarding the large number of airline vacancies/shortage of pilots. :}:sad:

:ok:

[737 Jockey]

Have you tried Norwegian?

[lifeafteraviation]

... contracts and building experience hoping to secure a job on the books with a decent operator, and not having left a decent on the books job to commence working as a contract pilot

I don't know anyone like this. If you're able to get a contract job it means you already have the experience as a captain in type or you wouldn't even qualify. Such people already have decent flight time and aren't interested in building hours as they are building their nest egg.

There are plenty of people who walked off "on the books" jobs to take contract work. Most airlines in the US are not such great places to work and are designed to be low paid time building jobs. You did qualify such jobs with the word "decent" so I'll give you that...but permanent full time does not automatically equate to "decent."

Most people want to work for a decent operator and there are many good jobs without seniority lists. Many such jobs start out with contract employment and end up being permanent.

There are also many very high quality international airlines that offer full time permanent jobs without the hindrance of a seniority list but I don't know of any in the US unless you get on right at launch and that's often less certain than a three year contract.

For example, Hainan airlines requires 5,000 hours total time with 1,500 in large jets (B737 size) and 500 hours PC in type. (I wouldn't recommend Hainan BTW but B737 types are in less demand than A320)

The more established the airline the longer it takes to upgrade...this is fine for low time pilots who can't get contract work but not the best choice for everyone. In the USA you don't need a lot of flight time to get an airline job as long as you meet the new minimums but some jobs are more coveted than others and the competition is higher.

Many of the major airlines in the US have a history of hiring very low time pilots from internships while bypassing experienced pilots but I don't think they're doing it so much right now. The smaller regional airlines will hire just anyone with a wet certificate and a pulse so yes...it's easier to build time in the US.

I know some people who are working as captains on overseas contracts saving enough money to be able to afford the starting salaries at the major airlines in the US until they can build up a few years to get the more reasonable salaries. Those people are high time and can already compete for the best airline jobs.

Others who are just planning to fly for five or ten years, build money fast and then retire...they're older, high time, have already flown for an airline at home and they have no intention of going back.

I even know some younger guys with outstanding experience who plan to make contract flying their whole career....it's hard to pass up a quarter million a year salary and four months vacation despite the challenges.

Almost everyone would be a highly competitive candidate anywhere so your perception of contract pilots is way off the mark.

[Three Lions]

Lifeafteraviation I think I want to change to the US job market. You have definately convinced me. If you fancy a swap let me know..... :)

[lifeafteraviation]

Yeah me too!! I just can't afford to work in the US anymore.

[Swept]

Thanks Guys, you've added more facts to the info that I have gleaned over the last 18 months. As I said, I am lucky. I am in a well paid job in the ME still flying military kit but....at the ripe old age of 40 (?) something want (and need) to move on to another career challenge.

Lifeafteraviation sums the scene up much better than I could: Thanks for your thoughts.

As a professional aviator when you're son says he wants to fly planes and you think about dissuading him there must be something wrong. The military sector is more demanding than ever and there are so many issues with the future for manned aircraft. The civilian sector has been well assessed on these forums and has changed dramatically over the last 20 years, some would say for the worse.

I will keep monitoring the business market and the larger carriers and wait and see what happens. One day my CV might land on the correct desk and until then it's an game of numbers.

One thing I will keep doing is continuing enjoying flying at 400 plus knots and going upside down whenever I like.....for the time being!

[RTO]

The civilian sector has been well assessed on these forums and has changed dramatically over the last 20 years, some would say for the worse.

What? who would not say it changed for the worse? The owners and ceo's?