Airline PAX demand

[swadeepc]

Hi. I apologize if i have posted in the wrong forum as this is my first post. I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction. I would like to know how do airline research the pax demand between 2 cities? I mean how do they get the numbers of travellers each day on average between the 2 cities so they know whether flying those routes will have enough load factors.

Would appreciate answers.

Thanks
Swadeep

[Peter47]

I'm sure there are plenty of people with vastly more experience out there but let me start using my M.Sc. knowledge.

The actual demand is available from various statistical sources. ICAO publish data between international cities. The CAA publishes numbers by route to from the UK and the US Board of Transport Statistics the same for international routes from the US (both free). There are far more comprehensive airline data such as OAG Max (definitely not free).

For US domestic routes there is a 1 in 10 ticket sample.

Air Fares | Bureau of Transportation Statistics (http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/airfares)

This gives the actual number on the route. You will want to know the number transferring at each end. The CAA does surveys at airports the data will cost you, but if you are lucky you might find in in one of their publications.

Airline route decisions also require assumptions about yield as there have been routes with break even load factors above 100% (instances of UK regional airports to US). Cathay have load factors in the 60s between HKG & JFK and can justify three non stops and a one stop daily and are opening a route to EWR. Compare the price a fully flexible business class fare and a deep yield economy ticket to understand why The only country that provides yield data is I believe the USA (check their Board of Transportation Statistics site).

RITA | BTS | Transtats (http://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp?Table_ID=261&DB_Short_Name=Air) Carriers

What about a new route? There are various sources available. For example if you are considering a UK to Europe route you could use the International Passenger Survey which interviews a sample of passengers leaving & entering the country. Remember this is only a sample and gives actual traffic. You would hope that a new route would stimulate additional traffic. For this you have to look at factors such as attractiveness for holidays, second homes, cultural links, possibility of generating VFR (visiting friends & relations) etc. Southwest Airlines in the US were very good at attracting traffic from car and Ryanair at generating new demand.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?newquery=Travelpac (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?newquery=Travelpac)

The advantage of the IPS (and National Travel Survey) is that they give all traffic. I have seen far too many sources that give the aviation share of the air & rail market whilst ignoring the road (car and coach) market which is often very significant. Eurostar is a specialist at this but I have just been reading the Central Japan Railway Company Annual Report which also does this.

I'm afraid that this only scratches the surface and I'm not sure that it answers your question but hopefully is useful.

[Capetonian]

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[Doors to Automatic]

Much harder to predict since the low cost revolution - now fares are adjusted to fill a flight to 80-90% full - the question that is harder to answer is what will the average fare (and therefore revenue) be on a given flight filled to say 85%.

[swadeepc]

Thank You very much for the replies! I apologize for late response as i was traveling.

[The SSK]

Airports are also very active in this field. An airport will have a wish list of routes it would like to see served, based on their own market research (it is relatively easy for an airport to poll passengers travelling through as to which new destinations they would use).

Every year there is one massive global and several regional ‘Routes’ trade fairs at which airports seek to attract the airlines’ custom (it’s a two-way process, the airlines may be looking to thrash out deals with individual airports).

The 2014 event is in Chicago, this is the website World Routes 2014 :: Routesonline (http://www.routesonline.com/events/170/world-routes-2014/)

There are online sources of these wish lists. See Airline, Airport and Aviation Route News & Analysis | anna.aero (http://www.anna.aero) ‘Route Shop’.

Of course no airline is going to take an airport's predicted traffic flow as gospel, but it is a useful indicator of where the unfulfilled demand is.

[PAXboy]

In the destination City and Region you would research;


Historic links to the origin city/region
Cutural events like music/arts/festivals
Biz events like trade fairs
Sporting events/opportunities
Weather: Hot/Cold etc. Monsoon not good etc.
Was there previously a direct flight between the pairs? How did it do? When did it stop? If no link before - why?
Are there incentives from the airport/region? Although fewer now in mainland Europe.
etc.