Will Qantas Mainline ever hire another pilot on a permanent contract?

[pilotchute]

Seeing as its now been over four years I believe since Qantas Mainline hired a pilot on a permanent contract I was wondering if it will ever happen again? The amount of people on LOP seems to be substantial and with the boss man blaming everything from "Unions" to "Nasty not play fair Virgin" for the groups problems it seems that there will be a slow but inevitable demise in store.

Anyone with a crystal ball want to comment?

[SOPS]

I thought the way it is going, the question should be, will there be a mainline?

[OneDotLow]

There has been and will continue to be a lot of pain for a few years, but I'd guess recruitment will start again in the second half of 2016.

My prediction is that the company will get fleet pay for new hire S/Os, maybe even existing S/Os. I'd like to see fleet pay for all ranks.

[happyfarm]

My bet is 2016 too.

[Jetsbest]

I've heard QF has something like 300 pilots over 58 & 500 over 55. They can't all stay 'til 70 years old!

As stated on other threads it serves QF's agenda to be able to characterise its pilots as:
- inefficient (even though company actions have caused most of the inefficiencies), and
- overpaid, (even though most S/Os would be F/Os in any other company flying around in crews of two-captains/two-F/Os, and most pilots don't fly the A380).
QF has some quite stark shortages already in some ranks & categories of pilots but is apparently doing its darnedest not to hire until the crisis is bad enough in the community/pilot psyche.

I think 'the plan' is to create the case for a B-scale which will, at some point, see new pilots start on conditions comparable to the competitors.

The irony may be that, given the age profile of the existing QF pilots and the lower cost base a B-scale would provide for QF's 're-expansion', future hirees may get better progression through QF than other companies with similarly low pay rates and younger pilots.

So, if the pay were to be similar anyway, QF may be the place to join if/when hiring begins again.

Just thinking out loud...:O

[Toruk Macto]

So sell out next generation to keep your job ? Is that what your saying ?

[600ft-lb]

It means you either sell out or they will set up an alternative flying arrangement where staff from company B fly the routes at Jetstar rates. If AJ mentioned $2billion in savings over the next few years, it's not going to come by keeping the status quo anything.

[DUXNUTZ]

In some respects you could ask if Virgin will hire again in the next 5 yrs!?

[Howard Hughes]

Let's hope both Qantas and Virgin do!

[Keg]

The answer to the original question is 'yes'. The timeframe is 2016/17... maybe a bit earlier. The last intakes were in Jan and Feb of '09 I think. That's probably the biggest gap in recruiting we've ever had.

The question as to what pay scale they will be on is an interesting one.

Personally? Fleet pay. It's a no brainer. It should have been in when I joined direct to the 744 in '95 and I've advocated for it since. We had the opportunity to pursue it when we did EBA7 rollover but lack of leadership meant that we didn't do it.

Things have to change that's for sure. Not just for S/Os but all of us. There are some things that are simply unsustainable. What change and how to implement it will be the truly difficult part.

[empire4]

I can't see hiring on the current award. It is unsustainable. I see some Qantas Tech Crew Australia thing happening.

[DirectAnywhere]

The predictions on recruiting have been "two years away" for the last four or five years. Like fusion power, it's a chimera which never appears to get any closer to reality.

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely. I very much doubt the 787 will ever arrive. Management will decide those options are worth more being sold than ever being exercised and turned into real aeroplanes and flying real passengers.

Aircraft retirements and route cutting will accelerate if anything and the surplus will grow.

[Offchocks]

I've heard QF has something like 300 pilots over 58

You heard wrong, maybe half that.

Hiring in two or three years? Dreamin'.......

I agree!

[Jetsbest]

You heard wrong, maybe half that.
Perhaps, but it came from someone in that group who's also in a 'fleet focus' group.; it seems logical that they would have some idea.

Sell out next generation to keep your job? Is that what your saying?
If that's directed at me, then no; you're doing that! I explained what I believe 'the plan' is. If it plays out like I've described:
- no one will be hired on the 'old' QF contract, (the benevolent leaders have already said as much re 787. Do you think they're bluffing?) or
- like the cabin crew there will be 'an offer too good to refuse' for future QF aspirants and the rest will be history.

The justifications have all even heard before:
- at least it's jobs for Aussies,
- it will be their choice to take the job or not,
- the conditions are still better than a lot of other options,
- this is a great opportunity to get into the industry!
- finally some progression for mainline!
- it didn't kill Cathay did it?

I'm not sure any of us can stop this train, but I'd like to be wrong.:sad:

[DeafStar]

The B scale already exists and is called Qantaslink. The link is the only part of the mainline group that is expanding. As part of the new 2b restructure qantaslink will be the new entry portal and I can see qantaslink becoming the new qantas domestic product. Qantas mainline will become the international arm only. Jetstar will do the rest.

[BNEA320]

traditionally (before GFC) the cheapest international tickets were ALWAYS available as soon as loaded in CRS's, which with most legacy airlines meant around 50 weeks out.

Worked in travel until a few years ago & would get the regulars, those who would go overseas to Europe or USA every Xmas holidays, call as soon as they got back in late Jan to book the following Dec.

But now, no one will book QF & this will also hurt other airlines, so cash flow will dry up, at least as far as QF international is concerned.

Many members of the public are already resigned to the "fact" that QF is stuffed.

The more QF management & the media talk about it, the worse it will get.

Does this mean that QF will offer incredible earlybird deals ?

Think QF is now stuck between a rock & a hard place.

[Metro man]

Perhaps they could introduce a Pay to Fly scheme and offer 500 hrs B737 for $30 000. An upgrade program for experienced F/Os wanting to move into the left seat and willing to pay for the privilege could also bring in some extra cash.

[TineeTim]

Quote:
I've heard QF has something like 300 pilots over 58
You heard wrong, maybe half that.

Not according to the CP International's memo of 7 Nov.

He wrote that the current surplus is 216 and the surplus for the next 8 months would increase 50-60. So, that's about 276. I guess my 300 was wrong but a lot closer than your 'half that'.

I believe those numbers are 'best case' and that they will increase from there.

Hiring in two years? Chimera, indeed.

[Keg]

Yeah but I think we've got a couple of hundred on LWOP so perhaps the 'half that' is correct in terms of physical bodies in Qantas?

[Avid Aviator]

I think you'll find the quoted surplus is excluding those on LWOP, so as they start to return and more aircraft are retired in 2014/15, the situation is going to get fairly ugly.
There will be no recruitment until a change in QF's fleet plan - i.e. more aircraft are ordered.

Regarding Fleet Pay for new S/Os; if the long haul fleet consists entirely of a dozen A380s (as per the last official QF fleet plan published) then S/Os will be on fleet pay by default!

[Tankengine]

Well, my seniority is in mid 300s and I just turned 50!:rolleyes:
Lots older than me less seniority, about 20 younger than me but more senior.
Hoping to leave shy of 60 but most don't.:hmm:
Some of those on LWOP have no intention of coming back but most would if things change.
How many of you guys advocating fleet pay voted for EBA8?:E

[Oldmate]

International fleet plan as per October 2013:
9 x 747-400
10 x A330-300
12 x A380

[-438]

Despite all the negativity around the future for the Qantas fleet, I believe there may still be some surprises around the corner. Which in turn may lead to more pilots being hired (if these aircraft are crewed by mainline pilots).

The 789 is an extremely viable option for mainline, specifically for Australia-Asia, Perth (Bris,Adel) - Dubai, and also Pacific routes.
The rumoured low acquisition price of these aircraft make them a very attractive whether that be through a purchase outright or if capital constrained, on sell to leasing companies for a profit then leasing back.

Secondly, there is a possibility of mainline operating rumoured fleet of 25 A320/321. With a group order for 110 odd A320 and a distinct possibility that Jetstar Hong Kong with fly the same amount of services as RedQ, the aircraft have to go somewhere.

QF were close to an order of A320 prior to Sept 2001 for mainline ops, however a very attractive deal for B738 came about when American Airlines had a sudden excess of 75 NG's on order and QF needed metal fast due to the demise of Ansett.
The NEO's become available early 2016 and A321Neo's would be a perfect fit to replace B767 on golden triangle and off peak Perth routes.
Additional advantages of A321Neo's for mainline is capacity increase over B738 & existing A321, also aerobridge access to 2 forward doors, streamlining turn around and giving premium pax the advantage of boarding separately or turning left on entry.

[Offchocks]

Not according to the CP International's memo of 7 Nov.
My figures came from Bid Book using the latest data for BP294. From that in LH there are 138 pilots age 59+, don't know about domestic but I doubt there would be that many.

[Avid Aviator]

Old mate,
I was referring to the published fleet plan, not the current QF fleet:
http://www.ausbt.com.au/photos/view/maxsize:467,322/4eeaf8a463c84cfe86937024767f2254-Qantas-2021.jpg
A380s flagged to be the only international a/c, 747s retired and any A330s fully domestic.

Reckon that would resolve any debate about S/O fleet pay.
Anyway, I just hope QF has some international aircraft - and pilots - come 2021!!

[moa999]

Still 10 x A330 due back from Jetstar, at least half of which started in Qantas colours originally.

oldmate,
Think there are also 15 747s still operating (6 ERs and 9 regulars)
Although only 9 (all 6 ERs and 3 regulars) have been renovated to the new SkyBedII config. The other 6 get retired as the A330s come back.

438 ,
Inclined to agree with you that the 320/321neo are likely to be the better choice for the narrowbody due to the issues that Boeing has with engines given wing height

[Tankengine]

Too many Pilots?:hmm:
Paxed yesterday to another crew base to fly today and tomorrow.
So paid for yesterday, plus allowances and a hotel for the night.:zzz:
Obviously short of Captains at said base or they wouldn't use me.:hmm:
Turn up today and instead of an F/O fly with a training Captain in right hand seat, (called in from leave!) because they also don't have enough F/Os.:ugh:
So if we are too expensive it is more due to the way we are being used!:ugh:
Talk on the flight deck about morale, management incompetence etc etc.:hmm:

[Tankengine]

Moa999
One rumour is that due to the 787 pylon stuff up the A330s may NOT be coming back and the 767s will be here till 2020!:mad::eek:

[Mr.Buzzy]

Why would any sane person apply to QF now?
Just my 2c but I'd take a job with Tiger over QF.

Bbzbbzbzbzbzbzzbzbzb

[Ollie Onion]

Of course they will hire again, I would think though it will be on a contract that doesn't resemble anything that is seen in QF at the moment. Just a question of how many years it takes to 'break' the union workforce to allow the 'new' contract.

[moa999]

Tankengine,

I assume that is the rumour referred to here:
Aviation Business: B787 headed for a different role in Qantas? (http://www.aviationbusiness.com.au/news/b787-headed-for-a-different-role-in-qantas)

Certainly an interesting rumour. Would Boeing really manufacture different engine pylons (assume it is already different between the GE GEnx and RR Trent 1000) - though the one of the requirements of swiss cheese design was to standardise parts so you don't get the wrong part on the wrong aircraft

[Oldmate]

My fleet numbers are from an investor presentation on the Qantas website, for 'future fleet' 2016 onwards.
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/about/investors/fleet-efficiency-engineering.pdf

[cynphil]

Tankengine,
My understanding is that the pylon problem only affects the first 4 B787 airframes for Jetstar. Still another management stuff up which will change the aircraft destinations for the first 4! So just a slight delay in the retirement plans of the B767. Hence the delay of HNL going to the A330 now not until Oct14.

[Oldmate]

Beginning to look like there is something to this engine pylon theory. 787 Route announcements Mel-Dps, Mel-Akl (trial), Bne-Dps. All short routes with long runways.

Looks like they are just trying to find something to use it for to me.

[Acute Instinct]

Ahhhhhh, No......


How's about we talk about Virgin.....

[Tankengine]

cynphil,
I heard first eight but perhaps that was engines.:O
Whatever the number it is clear that the early ones will have shortish range.:ouch:

[DUXNUTZ]

Will Qantas Mainline ever hire another pilot on a permanent contract?
Ahhhhhh, No......


How's about we talk about Virgin.....


Hiring's pretty slow going at old Virgil. Tiger not so much.

[Bankrupt84]

So any chance that Qantas will be hiring over the next 2 years?

Seems somewhat promising if they get the 787s.

[OneDotLow]

The previous chief pilot always said that the next planned hiring was likely to be in 2016. Whilst I cannot see that occurring, I can see a need for late 2017 if the new type goes ahead.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

I wouldn't get too excited just yet. Remember there's a couple of hundred pilots on leave without pay in various places around Asia and the Middle East. Many of them with 787 endorsements and families who would be very happy to come home. Until there are enough new aircraft to absorb the LWOP guys and also represent a clear expansion, I don't think we'll see too much recruiting.

[Flyboat North]

Well if you wanted to be paid 250% of market rates & do sweet f**8 all for it , it would probably be a pretty good gig

The senior SOs on the A380 are earning up to $280K , mid to senior SOs on the B744 routinely break $200K

Think Cathay are paying $90K aren't they ?

Take the jolly good chap of an SO on sectors that your competition routinely use two crew on

Travel the world with the Hooray Henry Brigade of cabin crew , who just refuse to retire & themselves earn up to $180K

Yes QF International is returning to profit , we have turned the corner , and about to get back in the game !!

Yes the large Asian & ME carriers are a bit rattled by the whole QF International turnaround.

You now have an international fleet capacity that is a whooping 30% greater than 1985 (pax numbers to Aust gone up 600% during this period)

Go QF International - the days of glory will return

[Keg]

Interesting points dolittle and ones that have been discussed amongst many at Qantas. The impact on the issues you raise on the quality of applicants for Qantas is worth considering also.

Flyboat north went onto my ignore list long ago so I have no idea if any useful contribution has been made there- I'd be surprised based on past performance before being added to my ignore list :E.

One thing to consider as a difference between Virgin, Jetstar and Qantas. Qantas have 1700 pilots. 50 pilots a year hit retirement age (65 ostensibly*) every year for the next 15 years. What's the demographic at Virgin and Jetstar? They've had exponential growth for a number of years now but if it's back to organic growth of only a couple of percent a year, what does that do for promotional opportunities when so many of their Captains are very young?

*Yes I know it's not a hard and fast number but it's not like there are 40% of crew going beyond 65. It's actually less than 10%.

[framer]

Flyboat I say this with total sincerity, let it go.
The angst and frustration you hold so tight to will actually do you physical harm over the years, and most likely impact upon your personal relationships.
Two years ago you were looking to do your CMEIR and were seeking info on a Jetstar cadetship and then on Air NZ SO jobs and the TTMRA so you're pretty fresh to the industry to harbour so much ill will and to continually bang on about the the pay rates of people who have been successful.
I'm not being facetious, you should choose not to worry about it for your own sake. The guys and girls who have got those great jobs didn't get there by nurturing a bad attitude.

[Keg]

Flyboat north went onto my ignore list long ago so I have no idea if any useful contribution has been made there- I'd be surprised based on past performance before being added to my ignore list .


Sadly it appears this statement was spot on! :ugh: :rolleyes: :E

[Flyboat North]

Framer thank you so much for your concerns very nice of you.

I can assure you that there is no angst or frustration at all, however if I did feel there was I would be consulting someone who had professional qualifications and experience in that field , not an aeroplane pilot.

The point I was making in the post was really a rhetorical one.

That is the questions asks when will QF hire new pilots ?

It's the wrong question really , just look at the scenario QF International has , it is mathematically impossible for them to make a profit.

So what are the options ? Really the only one is to shut it down, which in reality is what Joyce has been doing.

Again the QF International fleet is probably about the same size as it was in 1985 , during that time time international pax to Australia have gone up 600%

Do you think there might be a message in that little statistic , & it is more than just all a management conspiracy ?

[OneDotLow]

Flyboats said :
It's the wrong question really , just look at the scenario QF International has , it is mathematically impossible for them to make a profit.

Right about now, I'd take that bet.

[SixDemonBag]

Yeah. Of course they are going to make a profit. AJ's KPI'd share options depend on it!:}

What was the bet again?

[Capt Kremin]

QF Long Haul has around 350 less pilots flying its fleet than it had 4 years ago.

Even with that almost every pilot category is operating on min hours. There is a lot of slack to be taken up before recruitment happens. Bring on the new type.

Pure Seniority: There are only 440 captains slots at this time in long haul. There are about 40 permanent FO's so the pure seniority number required to get a LH command right now is about 480. (yes I know there are currently pilots with commands on numbers higher than that.)

I put that out there because even with a new type, some former 767 captains may not re-qualify for a LH command for a long time. The 737 may be their only option till we get a LOT of new type aircraft, remembering that the 747 is likely going to disappear in the short/medium term and the pilots will have to go somewhere.

The same situation applies for FO's, with different number thresholds of course.

[fearcampaign]

Never read so much BS in all my life.
Why don't we wait and see what the profitability is for QF International come the full year results and next FY. No rush to sign up a new deal. Ask yourselves why QF are in a rush before the Full year results.
Sure Alan and the exec teams bonus will be great!
To suggest a few night credits and a bit of overtime cut are suddenly going to propel QF international to massive profitability are a joke.
Do you really think they are going to look at that and say, "wow, how good Are the pilots sawing off their own legs, let's flush them with 787s, like the good boys and girls they are".
Anyone considered what happens to terms and conditions once the 787 replaces all the 747s and the a330s?

[allthecoolnamesarego]

Well if you wanted to be paid 250% of market rates & do sweet f**8 all for it , it would probably be a pretty good gig

I think you mean J* and others are paying less than market rate, not the other way 'round.

[BNEA320]

here's an interesting idea.


We seem to be giving heaps of money to Kiwis of late (eg. millions to dump their average wine in OZ)


when Kiwi airlines flying domestically in Australia, either RPT or charter, can the pilots/cabin crew be employed on Kiwi salaries & conditions ?


(that's with kiwi registered aircraft & a kiwi AOC)

[V-Jet]

Well if you wanted to be paid 250% of market rates & do sweet f**8 all for it , it would probably be a pretty good gig

Not compared to getting 3000%++ market rates (fools and idiots are available for around $18ph) and being in senior management or being CEO. Lets not forget that in another era the stature of our CEO could have seen him have the opportunity to go straight to the top as a Chimney Sweep. I just wish Qantas had chosen a better Sweep. Even if they had to double the penny a day salary to tuppence and you threw in all the perks they get, Shares, First Class travel, free food, cars, housing etc etc etc I don't think you could have failed to get a better applicant. Personally I wouldn't have even insisted on the ability to write in crayon to cast the net as wide as possible.

ALL the 'staff' at QF work bloody hard for the money but more importantly put up with absolute rubbish from complete fools whose airline qualifications are probably that they once made a paper aeroplane or maybe even sat next to someone at school whose brother made one. I am very confident the complaints (which get back to money) would barely be mentioned if the daily dose of complete garbage and lunatic 'strategies' did not have to be swallowed.

[Flyboat North]

Not talking about J* rates

The fact is that Qantas Second Officers are earning more than US Widebody Capts & that is why your international business doesn't make money

Plus probably the fact that you take the bum boy along for sectors than nobody else does

440 LH Capts , for what ???

Only 12 Airbus 380s , 26 A330s , not a lot of 747s - a dozen perhaps, what an excessively high crewing ratio you guys have

Especially when you consider at least 16 of the 330s are domestic usage only ; standard crew ratio of 5:1 - well that's how the rest
of the world does it anyway

You have them crewed at ULR ratios , for an airline that primarily does regional international flying

Truly Bizarre

[donpizmeov]

10 crew per aircraft for long haul ops. Same as the middle east company I work for uses.

[Flyboat North]

Dom you need to look at the data a bit more closely , see you don't have 44 long haul aircraft - maybe you have 24 LH aircraft , 10 MH aircraft , and 18 SH aircraft in your WB fleet.

Emirates have a crewing ration of 9 crews per aircraft for ULR , lesser crewing ratios for LH , and lesser again for MH

You guys are exceeding the most extravagant crewing ratios out there.

This sounds truly like Hollywood - hey I want to come to this party , where's my invitation ?

[waren9]

when Kiwi airlines flying domestically in Australia, either RPT or charter, can the pilots/cabin crew be employed on Kiwi salaries & conditions ?

well, jq has/had pilots in nz on oz conditions so presumably it can go both ways.

[V-Jet]

Qf staff have fretted about this for 10+ years. And the logic follows that genius decision to shut the business down. Work out the staff numbers from then? 25,000 ish staff and not a single aircraft being operated. Why didn't they sack everyone?

Qantas is at the stage where it isnt beyond the realms of not having enough aircraft to operate. And that is most certainly NOT the fault of staff, who of course will bear the brunt of the blame yet have been warning of this train wreck for years and years and years. The last few comments here could almost have come from board members writing in Qf Pravda!

'Times are tough in aviation and with the oil price having risen from $140 a barrel to well over $30 we are going to have to exercise our latest and grandest Glorious Five Year Plan and cancel our 787 order, defer the remaining 380's and use a number of 330's to park at SIT so our Chairmans Club Guests about to fly EK to Europe can have some Qantas aircraft to look at. An announcement regarding the expanded Management Posititons required in the new Operational, Logistical and Marketing Divisions required to make this adjustment will be made shortly. A Presentation Ceremony will be held at the Qantas Campus to welcome the lucky candidates to their new positions and we urge all staff to make the effort to come along on 1st July to help celebrate this special event'

[CaptCloudbuster]

Qantas is at the stage where it isnt beyond the realms of not having enough aircraft to operate

Looks like JQ doesn't have that problem:}

Check out their mid week "Fleet Optimisation Plan" in YMML

http://i61.tinypic.com/t5lkdz.jpg

[blueloo]

10 crew per aircraft for long haul ops. Same as the middle east company I work for uses.

Sounds reasonably considering we have 20 or 30 managers per pilot. :}

[fearcampaign]

Fly boat,

You really have it wrong.
Alan has downsized QF international over a long period of time.
Why?
1.Massive growth/investment in Jetstar at the expense of QF. Unless you count a lounge as a fleet investment
2.Ancient fleet of QF international aircraft that required high maintenance and high fuel consumption at previous record high fuel prices above $150 barrel
3.The dollar was $1.15 US
4.Foreign competitors were dumping capacity with the high Aussie dollar
5.QF pulled out of European and UK rights to partner with Emirates.

Your suggesting flight crew cost was a major factor, which shows how baseless and poorly considered your argument is.

Thankfully the fuel price has more than halved and Is forecast to remain low,
The dollar has dropped 35% and is forecast to drop further
Foreign competitors are cutting back capacity, improving our yields.
Our cost base just dropped with the fall in the AUD.

Let's just see the full year result and the forecast for next year.

[-438]

I understand Flyboat is just trolling, however staff ratios are management induced, not employee.
Point the finger at management.
You write about crews per airframe.
When QF gifted A330's to JQ, they duplicated the pilot roles. Why didn't they have QF pilots fly the aircraft, rather than train additional crews? A few short years later those aircraft are returning to mainline and the additional crews that were hired are now being trained to fly Boeings.
Previously Tasman flying was crewed by QF pilots. Those roles have been duplicated by Jetconnect. Short haul pilots have been low on hours for close to a decade. Aircraft utilisation is abysmal as a result of creating new branches of the airline to operate existing routes.

[Ken Borough]

Aircraft utilisation is abysmal

Does anyone have hard data on Qantas' utilisation by fleet or is the quoted statement based on gut feel rather than on fact? The numbers would be most illuminating.

[V-Jet]

Does anyone have hard data on Qantas' utilisation by fleet or is the quoted statement based on gut feel rather than on fact? The numbers would be most illuminating.

Fleet utilisation is anecdotally extremely high - amongst the 21J-41Y categories at least:)

[C441]

Bare in mind

Brainless or braindead? :)

[fearcampaign]

In February, over 2600 members of the Transport Workers Union working at Qantas agreed to the wage freeze in return for commitments that they would continue to work under the existing terms if Qantas creates a new corporate entity for its international business, improved consultation and training provisions and access to long service leave.

Any chance we can get some negotiators from the TWU?

[Keg]

Except there was no duplication as Jetconnect was already established as a Domestic NZ carrier prior to being put on the Tasman.

There were 4 jets flying domestically in NZ. When Qantas shut down it's NZ domestic operation they transferred those aircraft and crew onto the Tasman and then expanded the operation. The mainline crew who previously operated those routes were transferred to Australian domestic ops with a commensurate drop in hours flown by mainline crew.

And we all know how JC came about don't we? Because mainline Pilots didn't want to fly in NZ.

I'm pretty sure that's not accurate either. Jetconnect was launched in NZ because Ansett NZ had fallen over and QF knew they could get a bunch of crew on lower terms and conditions than mainline pilots then enjoyed.

[Fruet Mich]

Keg you've been around long enough to know that's not quite correct.

In 2009 when Jetstar took over the NZ ops from Qantas, Jetconnect had 8 aircraft. 4 X 737-400's JTP, JTQ, JTR, JTS and
4 X 737-300's JNN, JND, JNC, JNB

At the time it was a mix of domestic and Tasman flights.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure it was Mainline crewed 737's flying domestically after Ansett went bust until Jetconnect was formed as a wholly owned subsidiary of Qantas. Then kiwi crew started to be hired. Many of the initial crew in JC were Australian, ex Ansett. During the 13 years of JC operations there have been many mainline pilots fly for JC. Currently there are 2 mainline second officers on LWOP and many Aussies ex Qlink.

Jetconnect is an older wholly owned subsidiary of Qantas than Jetstar by one year.

[Lookleft]

Jetconnect was crewed by ex-Ansett pilots under a contract with AWAS. Qantas eventually took over the operation.

[correcting]

Jetconnect is an unnecessary complexity to Qantas 737 operations in my opinion. Nothing against the crew themselves. The idea that this setup saves money, with the AUD and NZD near parity is hard to swallow considering extra background staff required. So much for "One Airline, One customer"

[Fruet Mich]

From a TVNZ article May 1 2001:

"Qantas says for the first couple of months it will be using international flight crew, but by August it will have hired local staff for its domestic flights - but it will not say how many people it will be employing in New Zealand."

I'm pretty sure Qantas management would have sold the Jetconnect subsidiary to mainline pilots just like they sold the Jetstar subsidiary, full of lies and promises unfortunately.

I think once Qantas has reduced debt they will once again expand and hire new pilots. Running Jetconnect is a way to reduce costs during a time of debt conciliation.

[Keg]

Fruit, thanks for the correction on the numbers. A long time ago now and the memory is a bit fuzzy.

....but by August it will have hired local staff for its domestic flights - but it will not say how many people it will be employing in New Zealand."

This was my original point in response to Elzilcho though. The issue wasn't that mainline pilots didn't want the flying when Jetconnect was created, it was that Qantas set it up to deliberately exclude mainline pilots from it.

How many aircraft in Jetconnect/ Kiwi rego now? Still 8 or is it more than that. Either way, when they closed down Qantas domestic NZ, those airframes and crew were shifted. To the Tasman to the detriment of mainline pilot flying hours.

[Fruet Mich]

8 soon to be 7 with one going back to mainline. Jetstar picking up more Tasman flying.

[-438]

Disregarding the crewing of Jetconnect, my original point was that fact that Qantas utilisation of 737's is reduced by not flying Tasman services that were previously covered from Australia. Those aircraft now sit idle overnight.
I clearly remember the early starts ex NZ to do 1st flight of the day back to Oz. At the other end of the 'Aus Day' we used to fly Perth/DRW to DPS, CGK, SIN as well as plenty of redeyes domestically. These flights are now operated by additional airframes by different 'entities'.
The additional airframes then need to fly during the day creating overcapacity.
If you think overnighting mainline crews in hotels in NZ is expensive, consider the expense of under utilised airframes & over capacity.

[Fruet Mich]

I completely hear what you're saying -438, most of your flying has gone to Jetstar. It's frustrating watching it from the other side of the Tasman. Yes Jetconnect took over the remaining Tasman from mainline but that was a result of Jetstar. Jetstar now flies more Tasman destinations than Jetconnect. Its very frustrating watching more and more Qantas lines of flying being given to Jetstar. Look at the Hawaii, Queenstown, Tasmania, Darwin, Gold Coast, Japan and a lot of Tasman routes to name a few, all very profitable routes given to Jetstar. Jetconnect is the least of Qantas mainlines problems, it's definately been a thorn in her side but not the core problem.

[crosscutter]

JC are not employees of Qantas. They are contractors. If there was a merger as you suggest, the contractors would not be absorbed into Qantas.

[travelator]

Jet connect is a "wholly owned subsidiary of QANTAS" and as such are employees of the group. Just like Jetstar, SAA, EAA and Network. The only contractors are Cobham and occasionally Alliance.

[goodonyamate]

And should the jetconnect flying be absorbed back into QANTAS mainline, all jetconnect crew would be welcomed with open arms in mainline. At the bottom of the seniority list like everyone else.

[crosscutter]

Jet connect is a "wholly owned subsidiary of QANTAS" and as such are employees of the group. Just like Jetstar, SAA, EAA and Network. The only contractors are Cobham and occasionally Alliance.

In the transcript of AIPA vs QAL.
"In the court’s view, Jet Connect had not abandoned its corporate/commercial existence to the extent that it would warrant a finding that Qantas was the employer of Jet Connect pilots."
It may depend on NZ employment law and the contents of your contract but it's not clear cut. Is JC covered by Fair Work Australia law?

[Fuel-Off]

And would that same courtesy be extended to the guys at EAA/SSA and Network?

The precedent has been set by the opposition, it's now time for the QF Group to emerge from the dark ages.

Fuel-Off :ok:

[Popgun]

I would doubt it.

Unfortunately, keeping separate pilot group silos is an industrial tool they seem to enjoy keeping at the ready.

PG

[ACT Crusader]

It may depend on NZ employment law and the contents of your contract but it's not clear cut. Is JC covered by Fair Work Australia law?

Pretty sure JC is not. some time ago I recall AIPA brought a case in Fair Work trying to change the QF SH Award to have it cover JC. A full bench majority (2 to 1) threw the case out

[goodonyamate]

And should the jetconnect flying be absorbed back into QANTAS mainline, all jetconnect crew would be welcomed with open arms in mainline. At the bottom of the seniority list like everyone else.

Basically the same as what was done with VANZ.

I expect most JC Pilots would welcome that with open arms.

Im not so sure...couldn't see many current 737 captains happy being made a330 SO's....

[The Professor]

"And should the jetconnect flying be absorbed back into QANTAS mainline, all jetconnect crew would be welcomed with open arms in mainline. At the bottom of the seniority list like everyone else"

Actually, it will work the other way around. When the red tailed 787's join the JC fleet there will be mainline pilots offered to crew the aircraft at JC on contract. The 737 op at JC was a test case for much bigger things.

[hotnhigh]

6 Apr 2013 00:00 UTC - 6 Apr 2015 23:05 UTC
NZD/AUD close:0.99286 low:0.80614 high:0.99780

Of course exchange rates and the cost of doing business have nothing to do with the IR realists within QF.:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

NZ dollar surging ahead (http://www.smh.com.au/business/nz-dollar-surging-ahead-20141211-124tyy.html)

[SixDemonBag]

Actually, it will work the other way around. When the red tailed 787's join the JC fleet there will be mainline pilots offered to crew the aircraft at JC on contract. The 737 op at JC was a test case for much bigger things.


http://weknowgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/now-comes-the-part-where-we-throw-our-heads-back-in-laughter.gif

[busdriver007]

Yes Professor, right up the first accident and then let's see what happens then. Full Bench were lent on and ruled on juristrictional grounds. Senior Deputy President Drake summed it up as a "Sham!". The other two were bunnies. Jetconnect is nothing but a labour hire company. They do no sell tickets, they do not pay wages and if someone in Canberra asked the question they do not conform with the QSA. Nothing will be done in Canberra as they are all beholden to big business at the expense of Australian jobs.

With the Aussie dollar on the slide I can't see this as a cheap operation anymore. All this B#$^@*(t when the management should have been working on improving productivity instead of dividing and fighting the staff. ANZ consolidating while QF dividing at the expense of the shareholder. The depreciation($208 million first half better off then same period last year) will run out in 18 months and the tide will go out.:mad:

[Fool Sufferer]

SixDemonBag, a most appropriate antidote to smug, ill-informed, market fundamentalist idiocy. Well done.

[AnQrKa]

"Yes Professor, right up the first accident and then let's see what happens then"

Why would there be an accident just because JC start operating 787's? Are QF the only adults that can fly big jets?

[goodonyamate]

The 787/777/350/whatever type is coming to mainline, to be flown by mainline crew. Anyone dreaming about an external contract as a way home from the Middle East, or jetconnect getting them, are kidding themselves.

How could jetconnect possibly get them? If they were kiwi rego, every international flight would have to originate in nz with a stopover in Aus.

Read the integration award!!

[waren9]

why assume kiwi rego?

anyway. interestingly, when aipa went to fwa to try to get jet connect conditions the same, it was claimed they were about 40% cheaper.

now, with the 2 currencies at parity, what would that % be?

[moa999]

Still 20% cheaper
currency in from 1.22 to 1.02 so say 20%

[BNEA320]

kiwi registered aircraft can fly within OZ without restriction. They fly by NZCAA rules not CASA rules.

[Oldmate]

Within Australia, yes. From Aus to other countries except NZ, No. Would need to negotiate bilateral rights, and in my opinion unlikely with a NZ AOC. Same reason Jetstar can't operate from NZ to pacific islands on their Aussie AOC.

[busdriver007]

Bilaterals would need to be negotiated, yes that is the point. A challenge from any overseas country regarding ownership and control would kill this as we have seen in Hong Kong. The US would challenge this in a heartbeat.
Last week the court in Hong Kong was told Jetstar HK was controlled by the Melbourne office, playing into the hands of the Hong Kong Airlines challenging the setup of Jetstar HK.
The Trans Tasman Mutual Recognition Act is a different matter and as usual not well thought out. The first service operated with NZ crew domestically in Australia would be challenged at Fair Work Australia and probably the reason why Jetconnect have not tried to do it before now. Wait 12 months and we will be all saying hang on the Kiwis are more expensive!

[waren9]

jq ran "tag" flights around oz with thai crew, fwa didnt care too much about that. 'spose they still do?

whats to stop jetconnect using the same flight number across the tasman with a 738 and then departing oz with a 789?

and airnz run syd-rar i believe. atleast jetconnect is aus owned

[Australopithecus]

An interesting sidebar issue that no one seems willing to contemplate is what happens to the growing pile of surplus aircrew?

Under the current award, QF mainline likely has 400 surplus pilots on the books...a situation of their own making because they invented JQ and had an idealogical objection to employing most QF pilots in that division. Now they lament that they have too many expensive, underutilised pilots. Q'uelle suprise!

So those posters who expect Jet Connect to be grown at the expense of either mainline or JQ ignore that such a strategy would create even more surplus.

QF pilots are very expensive to make redundant involuntarily. Even the most junior pilot would cost over a hundred K in payments and cascading training costs.

When you project the net savings over a typical planning horizon you don't get any savings at all within the life of the average executive career. But, I suppose that somewhere there is a genius plan that calls for a thousand new hires paying to fly to support 2,000 surplus guys doing nothing on min credit guarantee. I for one certainly hope so. :cool:

[A Comfy Chair]

Waren9 - JQ used to run a lot of 'tag flights' around the country. They no longer run nearly as many.

Not long after one of the Senate inquiries, where the issue of tag flights came up, the practice heavily reduced and Buchanan left the group to spend more time in the cosmetics industry. I have a feeling that while FWA weren't particularly interested, other government departments were...

As to anyone wondering about the crewing arrangements - Norwegian Air Shuttle are leading the way in creative crewing with their 787 pilot base in Thailand. Lets just hope it doesn't come to that kind of arrangement here.

[busdriver007]

The Department of Immigration allows Flight Attendants entry on a Special Purpose Visa that allowed them to stay in Australia for 30 days. All they worry about is making sure they leave. Jetstar then found out that when these Flight Attendants left to do a service(Honolulu for example) this 30 days was reset. Wonderful precedent for Fly-In Fly-Out mine workers if attempted by the mining industry. Tragedy for Australian workers however. Lucky there is lots of coffee shops for Aussies to work in cause there will be nothing else. The next challenge is for the Tax Department however a Jetstar Flight Attendant earns less than the minimal taxable salary($15000), therefore tax-free. :ugh:

[Jackneville]

Why would anyone would want to be on the QF mainline list ?

Everyone in the QF group, and I really mean everyone, including the management trolls need to read and understand
what Australopithecus has said in the above post .......it will be a minor miracle if there is not a CR in QF mainline this year, the optimists will say
that a supposedly soon to be announced order for new aircraft will change everything , but how can it ? even if an order for A350/78-9/777X
is announced tomorrow, how many years will it be before any meaningful number of these aircraft have arrived ? the massive pilot surplus
exists right now,,,,,a direct result of QF management's amazing decisions to create or buy other airlines, snafu.

[Tankengine]

Why?:confused:
Hmmm:hmm:

More pay than other airlines, good conditions, good guys and gals to fly with.:ok:

If YOU would re-read Australopithecus' post you would notice that it is too expensive for the company to use CR, perhaps one more reason that the "optimists" are that way.:rolleyes:

For what purpose do you post drivel Jack? :p

[Keg]

Of the 400 Australopithecus mentions, 200+ are on LWOP. Many won't return at all and others won't return for at least another 5+ years.

Some of the other 200 mentioned have been 'parked' on the 737 where hours are low but provide a significant surge capacity if things improve.

I'd suggest that the current over capacity of crew currently still in uniform flying for mainline is closer to 60- perhaps a few less. The issue remains still that people are in the wrong categories. Over stocked in some categories and under stocked in others. I wouldn't rule out further RINs although that depends a little on potential aircraft orders.

[OnceBitten]

I'm curious Keg,

Where do you get your info that many or most of us on lwop won't return??

To the best of my knowledge most will. But what would I know. :rolleyes:

[Keg]

Many, not most.

What percentage have stayed at JQ? Spoken to those on LWOP in EK? Is that 'many'?

I think we're arguing semantics when the go real point is that I don't reckon we're over stocked by 400 in the short term and certainly not in the medium to large Ng term if they order expansions n airframes.

[The Professor]

"provide a significant surge capacity if things improve."

Not many airlines have $$$ crew in wait for "if" things improve.

Such is the inflexibility of Australian labor!

[dragon man]

Put me down as an optimist. AIPA will do a deal with QF for effectively a B scale for the 789. The pilots will approve it. The first will arrive middle to late 2017. On that basis by the end of next year they will need to recruit the CP mentioned a number to the committee of AIPA a few months ago. The 789 by Joyce's comments is for new routes. Only time will tell if my optimism is misplaced .

[outside limits]

The numbers of MOU that have stayed at JQ after resigning from QF is not that high. After the negativity surrounding the RIN last year a number elected to stay at JQ feeling under considerable pressure. Six months later the percentage staying at JQ is very low. The reality of poor pay & conditions at JQ has left a feeling of regret for some. Most now are returning to QF with happiness. Good luck to everyone. As for EK. There are some rather unhappy lot there and would be surprised to see "many" not return. EK is no longer the greener pasture escape that it once was.

[Popgun]

The numbers of MOU that have stayed at JQ after resigning from QF is not that high. After the negativity surrounding the RIN last year a number elected to stay at JQ feeling under considerable pressure. Six months later the percentage staying at JQ is very low. The reality of poor pay & conditions at JQ has left a feeling of regret for some. Most now are returning to QF with happiness. Good luck to everyone. As for EK. There are some rather unhappy lot there and would be surprised to see "many" not return. EK is no longer the greener pasture escape that it once was.

Agreed. Most (overwhelmingly) of the QF LWOP guys I know at JQ and EK have or intend to return for the reasons outlined above.

Most would rather sit calmly and comfortably in the right or back seat on great remuneration and conditions with a balanced life they have the time and money to enjoy in Australia.

Most agree that is not achievable at either JQ or EK.

PG

[-438]

Professor

Such is the inflexibility of Australian labor!

The problem here is not the labor, but the management of said labor.
These surpluses are not created by pilots.

When you have management that hire additional crews to fly existing aircraft due to your ideology's, and thus create surpluses, it's a bit rich to blame the pilots.

Alternatively, you could utilise existing crews. That would require management who are able to work with employees, as opposed to against. Imagine the IR consultant fees you would save, in addition to the extra wages of surplus pilots.

Jetstar wages may seem cheap, however they are expensive to the group when you are effectively paying a QF pilot in surplus.

Qantas is lucky that they have pilots who were willing to go on LWOP & move their families all over the planet to save them having to make pilots redundant. That's the definition of a flexible employee!!

[Zed-Air]

Point 1) "Sell out" is silly -- and loaded -- but otherwise what you wrote is simply rational. Cannot bank the "next generation," whatever that is.

Point 2) Like it or not, Qantas will become competitive -- or will fail.

Its competitiveness will include its getting rid of its anachronistic airplane-plumber (by any other name) stand-over and shakedown racketeers. Probably by relocating overseas.

And old hands will share cockpits with folk in pilot costumes who, a few decades ago, in America, were called: "low bidders." (Nowadays: "Computer Gamers," maybe?)

Zed!

[Troo believer]

[QUOTE=Zed-Air;8942864]Point 1) "Sell out" is silly -- and loaded -- but otherwise what you wrote is simply rational. Cannot bank the "next generation," whatever that is.

Point 2) Like it or not, Qantas will become competitive -- or will fail.

Its competitiveness will include its getting rid of its anachronistic airplane-plumber (by any other name) stand-over and shakedown racketeers. Probably by relocating overseas.

And old hands will share cockpits with folk in pilot costumes who, a few decades ago, in America, were called: "low bidders." (Nowadays: "Computer Gamers," maybe?)

Zed![/QUOTE
WTF
Sort of babble is that?
Talk about incoherent crap. Why do U. S. Stalkers consider their opinion is worthy on this forum.
Total and utter rubbish and Labour is spelt with a u here.

[Zed-Air]

.... Flyboat I say this with total sincerity: Let it go ....

(All) Well said. :cool:

[V-Jet]

The question uppermost (I would suspect) in the minds of those on LWOP is whether the exemplary Management Team at the Coward Street HQ of Qantas Airways Ltd is actually worth working for. And how much further will the 'World Famous Australian Flag Carrier, Qantas - The Flying Kangaroo' to the 'Codesharing/Webjet with Free Bottle Of Wine at any Partner Restaurant' type operation 'push' have gone in say 10 years? Will there actually be a better window seat available in that time at a much reduced Qantas or where the LWOP guy is now? If something sensible is done with 787's then my guess is possibly. If not, then the desire to work for a 'World's Worst Practice' Management Team with it's endless appalling decisions, ever shrinking network and the abject negativity that permeates the place because of those reasons would really make you question the 'need' to live in Aus or return to QF if you are anything approaching happy elsewhere.


What is REALLY pertinent here is that this question is actually being debated. Even ten years ago people would have looked at you like a space alien if you even mentioned leaving flying for anyone other than QF. Now it is not only discussed but is actually very open to debate as to how many will even come back. And that once great Airline gives every indication it really doesn't want any of them back unless it has no choice.

[Keg]

Lol. It's like Mohikan's gone and changed his/ her handle or finally found a friend.

And I won't come on here and make sweeping statements claiming to.

Next sentence

What I do know among the sizeable number that I communicate with is that they are watching and waiting for the best time to return to QF in a position commensurate with their career choice and life goals.

Later

The point is, the people I communicate with are all looking for a return to QF for a position in line with the experience they have gained while on LWOP. That's right, a return to QF. Not a permanent departure. Now my 'sample' of QF LWOP pilots isn't 100%. But I'm tipping it's a very good representation. And 'many' are certainly not planning on leaving for good.

Is what you have said radically different from what I've posted? Is your allegation of zero evidence against me any different to the 'evidence' you bring to the table?

I appreciate that you've brought far more context to the discussion than what I did previously and particularly WRT proposed time frames of 3-5 years (whereas I was alluding to crew who still have 12 months to go and will probably be able to get another 3-4 years taking them close to or over to the 5+ range) but as I pointed out previously, we're really arguing semantics. Perhaps in the future I should ensure that I have 30 minutes available to provide the full context and rationale behind my comments rather than the quick 15 second post. Then I guess I'd be accused of trying to speak on behalf of all Qantas pilots. Oh, wait.... :E

The main point from my previous post- we're not 400+ over stocked. Many (somewhere between 10-30%) of those on LWOP may not come back immediately they're finished or at all and many may do exactly what you say they'll do in terms of coming back when it's 'right' for them in up to 5+ years.

Stop pretending you speak for all QF pilots, and stop pretending you know what everyone is planning.


Lol. Never have I done anything except provide my personal opinion. That opinion is informed by taking in evidence from multiple sources. That includes discussions with those on LWOP (as you also have done but apparently when I share the intent of those discussions (as you have also done) it's wrong and 'speaking for all QF pilots' :ugh: ) and reading company communications. Note that as recently as a couple of days ago (after I'd written my first burst about not being as much in surplus as many thought) the HOBO communicated 'minimal surplus remaining'.

Anyway, it's always good to see people playing the man instead of discussing the issue. Makes everyone feel much better about themselves. :rolleyes: :D :ok:

(See, I even changed the 'lightbulb' for you too! :ok: )

[Keg]

I have read through the 7 pages, and 121 posts on this thread and found the 'lightbulb' icon appears 5 times. All by the same person. What arrogance.


I'm the only person that uses any icons in the whole thread- though a few contributors are on my ignore list so perhaps they've used them too. I use the lightbulb as 'here's an idea'. I'm not sure what you're reading into it but it makes me giggle to think that someone reads so much into the emoticon at the beginning of a post! Given that using a lightbulb appears to make some think it's arrogance, I'll endeavour to mix it up a bit more!

[TineeTim]

Keg,

QF may not be '400 overstocked', but the idea that the surplus is 'minimal' is total bullsh*t.

Shorthaul- Beer coaster numbers of 60 A/C and 6 crew per A/C gives 360 crew or 720 pilots. Those guys are 10 hours (at least) short every month. That's 7200 hours available per month. Easily 100 guys over on the 737.

Longhaul- Bit harder to get a handle on but divisors aren't high and there's still demotion training going on. I can easily see 100 guys too many.

LWOP- How many? I recall a memo, blog, Friday update, something, saying there were over 250 gone. That was a while ago and I'm sure we've had more go, but if we take that as the number, let's say 50% come back that's over 100 guys.

Total surplus is at least, at least, 300.

Retirements- I remember you posting you had worked out on bidbook about 50 guys a year hitting 65. How many will extend? Let's say none do. 200 guys will go in the next four years. Nice.

787- How many and when. Million $$ question.

The surplus is real and significant- regardless of what some management w*nker writes in his blog, memo, email, smoke-signal. QF won't be 'right-sized' in pilot terms until 2017 or 2018 at the earliest and that's only if the 787 becomes a reality. Remember, you read it here first: QF to hire pilots........ in 2019. Get your yr 12 maths and physics done now kiddies!!!!

[Keg]

Yes. I acknowledged that point re 737 hours on a previous page. 737 crew are 10-15% hours short of where they were in the mid 2000s. That said, it's not a 'surplus' per se and as I said previously, it allows Qantas some surge capacity. Do we have enough airframes to surge though? That I'm less sure about. Perhaps not?

I suspect the LH numbers aren't quite at 100. There are still a number of crew to leave on VR before 1 Jul. Wrong categories for sure and perhaps a future RIN to get people into the right categories. Still on minimum divisors though. Perhaps 100 is the right number with divisors at 170+.

I think the 2019 number for new recruits is close to the mark. The 21 year old that gets in on that first intake is going to be numero Uno for 10ish years from when they are 55! Lucky them. :ok:

The retirement calculation is back of the envelope stuff. The VRs of the last 18 months will distort it a bit. More this year, perhaps less next year. Hard to call that one.

[OnceBitten]

Hey V-Jet, When you guys are "debating" the pro's and cons of leave without pay and returning back to QF just cast your mind back to a Little movie called the Wizard of Oz and Dorothy's little Ruby shoes.

And that's what LWOP means to most of us. :ok:

[V-Jet]

Kansas:
Don't ever come to Kansas.
That headline might be the most obvious statement ever written. But that doesn’t keep it from being true.
I used to defend my home state to outsiders. Who are they to talk smack on the prairie? It’s like I can say horrible things about my family, but you can’t say anything bad about my family. That’s a privilege you have to earn.
But now? Now I’m done. There is nothing left to defend.
You see, I’m convinced that the state of Kansas wants nothing more than to be the most reality-denying state in the Union. And, boy howdy, is it on its way.

I can't quote the above because Windows 8.1 won't let me on this site, but I could have almost written that about QF:)


And two further points on that excellent analogy:
1) I would LOVE to throw water on Elaine - she is also Irish green and might just melt!
2) The snow scene is actually asbestos powder which was used extensively as Christmas decorations way back in the day. Just like Qf's Glorious Five Year Plans - Looks great but might just kill you in 10 years....


The death, appallingly evil cartoon characters and the Wizard eventually being revealed as a charade - that movie could be a QF documentary but I do get what you are saying and totally understand. I just hope the Yellow Brick Road does go somewhere for all those on LWOP and not just peter out into a smoke and mirrors falsehood.


I saw a very sad looking 787 parked at the end of 16 the other day. Wrong colours, wrong plan and a tragically wrong place for an aircraft with fantastic potential to be parked. How much are ANZ making out of theirs compared to Jetstar?

[Australopithecus]

I pulled from my extravagant arse, with not even enough analysis to fill the back of a beer coaster.

But, since 737 average utilisation is less than 220 hrs month, even five crews per plane is probably stretching it. So assume around 160 surplus there by any rational measure of eficient utilisation. (Not by cost though as their min divisor is so low. )

We must be under 100 surplus on the international side, and if the 250 number on LWOP is correct, then you get over 400. Which is enough to crew twenty 787s. Or one standing out in front of every Flight Centre in the country.

Anyway, at least we are all getting new brand enhancing uniforms. I do hope it has a sash, and a lanyard. If you are going to enhance the brand it calls for more than half measures, after all.

[ruprecht]

I do hope it has a sash, and a lanyard. If you are going to enhance the brand it calls for more than half measures, after all.

I want a sword.

[Australopithecus]

"I want a sword"

So do I, but I'd settle for a giant Aeroflot style hat. And dangly epaulets, as worn by potentates everywhere. Better that than looking like an impotentate, after all.

[bdcer]

Australopithecus, as for the surplus available to crew the B787s, I'm pretty sure there will be no overall change in crews required as the B787s will simply replace outgoing airframes from Q. So there will still be a surplus :(

[Australopithecus]

I really don't know. But speculating for a moment about 35 787-9s replacing eight 330s and twelve 747s leaves a net 15 more airframes. With 100 retirements over the next three years that soaks up the surplus. That then becomes the general target for fleet planning this decade. Anything less than 35 new planes means more VR and an aging pilot group.

An aging pilot group has its own attendant issues. American hired in late 2013 for the first time since 9/11. Their median age in 2013 was in the mid-50s. That is an unhealthy demographic for obvious reasons. Anything over ~43 is an indicator of both past and future hard times. Every time there is a discontinuity in the hiring wave there follows a schism between the past and the future: all institutional memory gets truncated to the immediate past only, and sometimes values get...modernised.

[Keg]

The answer to the original question appears to be 'yes' if some behind the scenes actions are any indication. Let's hope SARS Mk II, Ebola or WWIII don't get in the way! :ok:

[Bankrupt84]

Hey Keg

Would you please enlighten us?

[SandyPalms]

The recruitment team is being put back together.

I guess that's what he is talking about.

[qld]

Why would QF recruit? Aren't we over by many pilots? Plus LWOP pilots.
Any idea when this recruitment will take place?

[brown_hornet]

Keg The answer to the original question appears to be 'yes' if some behind the scenes actions are any indication. Let's hope SARS Mk II, Ebola or WWIII don't get in the way!


Indeed. When I fly over the South China Sea later this week I plan on politely asking the Chinese Navy and any USAF aircraft on frequency to please stop the chest beating....Qantas' 787 order and thus my promotion depend on it:) Can't do much on the Russia front though other than:=

[OneDotLow]

The numbers (excl LWOP) are not too far from being right. Yes there are some categories assigning leave, but there are also categories where there is a definite under resourcing.

When/if expansion hulls come to mainline, the 'suck' from training will be immense (there are so many more usable crew when the music stops) and QF will be short of crew. With new jets potentially arriving from mid 2017, people will start to move off existing types very late in 2016, which means recruitment probably need to start vetting people early next year.

[blow.n.gasket]

Oh great ,
just as it all starts looking rosy again you come across the following downer.






Asteroid Impact Apocalypse 2015: Mass Anxiety As Conspiracy Theorists Predict Catastrophe (http://www.inquisitr.com/1813936/asteroid-impact-apocalypse-2015-mass-anxiety-as-conspiracy-theorists-predict-catastrophe/)

[Keg]

lol. There's normally one in every crowd ut it seems we've picked up two with brown hornet and blown. :D :ok: