Quote: "How a war game brought the world to the brink of nuclear disaster"

[Will1593]

Half expected this article (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/02/nato-war-game-nuclear-disaster) would have been picked up here and apologies if I’ve missed a thread.

Perhaps no frenzy if there is nothing new reported. I did due diligence with a forum search for “Able Archer”. Certainly seems it’s been discussed before. The trigger seems to be release of cabinet papers, so the new news might be the political aspect.

[Hangarshuffle]

In a nutshell, Thatch was pretty horrified in late 1983 when she read secret intelligence papers on how the USSR had got the message wrong and was seriously expecting to be attacked by NATO, so in response USSR raised her own defence level to a pretty well cocked hair trigger in certain local E European areas.
Thatch got onto the right diplomatic channels to tell the Yanks to start thinking about toning it all down a bit. The years 1983/4/5 we must have been close to disaster at times.
When you remember what it was like>? Anybody on here remember Ocean Train 1985 was it? The NATO convoy back from the USA and we ended up fronting up the Russians off N Norway?
Overflown by Bison, Bear - God knows what else went on because He surely spared the human race/mankind/world in those far off days.
One mistake....one misinterpretation..
Thatcher deserves some credit for this (if it be true).

[Whenurhappy]

Read the relevant chapter of the official history of MI5 'Defence of the Realm' by Chris Andrew. Much of the Soviet response was due to the paranoia emanating from the Kremlin - the Soviet Rezident in London was tasked to see whether Britian was stockpiling blood supplies, whether the MoD and other departments were working late etc, in 'obvious preparation' for war. The various Soviet Emabssies in NATO countires had to provide material that supported the bonkers Kremlin narrative, otherwise the KGB officers would be 'recalled' to Lubyanka...

[Yellow Sun]

Read the relevant caapter of the official history of MI5 'Defence of the Realm' by Chris Andrew

Defence of the Realm was published in 2009. The first open source account of Raketno-Yadernoye Napadenie ('Nuclear Missile Attack')was in Ch4;Operation RYAN; of Andrew & Gordievesky's book "Instructions From The Centre" published in 1991. Whilst there were various references to Op. RYAN prior to that, although not by name, it was the first occasion I can recall it being linked to Able Archer.

So in response to the OP, not fresh news at all, in fact very old news indeed.

YS

For reference:
Instructions From The Centre ISBN 0-340-56650-7

[Willard Whyte]

There was a CH4 programme about it in '08.

Also dealt with KAL 007 and the spurious launch warning system alarm in the USSR at around the same time, I seem to recall.

[smujsmith]

Yellow Sun,

You hit the spot precisely. As someone who was serving at that time, I ask this. What's the point of a major, multi national exercise if it does not display " organisational intent, after an enemy transgression". I suspect that the reported hiatus was one of many that appears to have attracted the press to an orgasm of verisimilitude, and may as always have more relevance to sales than accurate analysis.

Smudge

[NutLoose]

There must have been a Soxmis out and about who had seen how we were all frantically sawing up broom handles and covering the world in plastic sheeting and Bodge tape, no wonder they thought it real.

[Squirrel 41]

Nutloose,

Ex ABLE ARCHER 83 was mostly a CPX for nuclear forces, which is what spooked the Sovs. Under Operation RYAN they'd already convinced themselves by the early 80s that the west was going to nuke them, so they then went out to find the evidence that this was going to happen. Not finding the intelligence that this was going happen simply meant that the west was hiding it well (no, don't draw comparisons with the UK/US in 2003), leading not just to an intelligence failure, but more specifically, an intelligence-led intelligence failure. Oops.

S41

[NutLoose]

And since when did we need such a paultry excuse such as a CPX Nuclear war to avoid frantically sawing up broom handles and covering the world in plastic sheeting and Bodge tape, no wonder they thought it real. In the Airforce I served in it was de rigueur to take a saw to a broom handle at the drop of a beret. And if it wasn't a war, CPX or otherwise, we'd still be at it producing Uckers sets.



.

[chopper2004]

And by sheer coincidence, the Hollywood movie War Games came out that year after year in production in 1982.

[PeterGee]

Now I am freaked, crabs playing uckers! Waffoo or real rules

[Surplus]

^^^^^^^^^^^
Small Ships rules.

[Squirrel 41]

I never understood Uckers, let alone for nuclear war - after all a nuclear war wasn't going to last long enough for WAFUs and Fisheads to argue / agree about "rules".

Ah well, sure they'll do fine on the CVF - plenty of time to sort the rules to Ludo out before any, umm aircraft actually arrive....

S41

[NutLoose]

Peter, used to play against 845 in NI so real rules I suppose.

[ShyTorque]

And since when did we need such a paultry excuse such as a CPX Nuclear war to avoid frantically sawing up broom handles and covering the world in plastic sheeting and Bodge tape, no wonder they thought it real.

We were just playing chicken.

Intriguingly, I was Germany based at the time. We heard whispers about this but laughingly discounted them. It did later get a bit fraught; but it was closer than we imagined.

[Robert Cooper]

I think it was "Ocean Safari 85" not Ocean Train, and according to intelligence we receives it did cause a major bout of indigestion in the soviet ranks.

Bob C

[Hangarshuffle]

Thanks Bob I think your right. Remember the response well, on the FD numerous overflying Soviet aircraft, I've still got some of the photos somewhere in my old sea chest, of 800 NAS SHAR closely shadowing I think Bison or Badger, and Bear .
Agree in principle of course all training regardless of scale should be both realistic and relevant, but what 28 years later think that particular massive exercise must have looked particularly bullish to the Russians. Provoking or misleading an opponent into making a catastrophic mistake...surely trying not to do that that gets highlighted before the start?
Our aircraft were never armed on these cold war occasions, ever as I recall. Cant remember if the accompanying American Tomcats were...think they were in retrospect. See if I can dig out my old photos from that era.

[Whenurhappy]

Yellow Sun,

Chris Andrews wrote the official history of MI5 and helped to, um, debrief some defectors earlier in his career. Defence of the Realm wasn't the first account of it by nay means, but it was the first fusion of Soviet and British intelligence material.

[Agaricus bisporus]

I wonder how many people there were like me who were in the military at the time and was until now blissfully unaware of the whole thing?
Extraordinary.

[Yellow Sun]

The Soviet reaction to Ocean Safari was not out of proportion to the size of the exercise. What was of particular interest from our pov was that they were apparently using it as an operational test of their ocean surveillance system. The presence of a significant number of "live" targets and the opportunity to correlate the results might appear heaven sent. However knowledge that is going on can also provide an assessment opportunity of the system's capability.

I never really understood the "intercept at all costs" obsession displayed by many in the hierarchy. By all means intercept when there is a reason but in many instances it seemed to be about "presence" and pretty piccies rather than any substantive intelligence gathering.

YS

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/soviet-union-was-ready-to-scramble-100-nuclear-bombers-in-1983-files-reveal-8tpkt9t8d

Soviet Union was ready to scramble 100 nuclear bombers in 1983, files reveal

The Soviet Union armed 100 aircraft with nuclear bombs and put them on a 30-minute alert status as Cold War tensions threatened to boil over in the early 1980s, declassified US intelligence files disclose.

The documents add another layer to the story of how close the world came to catastrophe in 1983 when harsh rhetoric set both sides on edge. The world was on the brink after Soviet forces shot down a Korean Air Lines jet west of Sakhalin island and Nato held war games to test its ability in a nuclear war.

The report, released by the US state department, claims that Lieutenant General Leonard Perroots, the top US intelligence official in Europe, discovered that Soviet air force units had been secretly armed and put on full alert to launch nuclear strikes as Nato prepared to play out its Able Archer exercise on November 7, 1983.

Soviet fighter-bomber regiments in East Germany and Poland, equipped with about 100 Mikoyan MiG-27s, Sukhoi Su-17s and Su-24s, were seen being armed with nuclear bombs. The air crews were briefed “to destroy first-line enemy targets”. All routine missions were cancelled in preparation.

Previously declassified intelligence reports in 2015 disclosed that the Soviet Union had become worried about the Able Archer exercise, which rehearsed a simulated nuclear attack on Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces. The high-level exercise even involved Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Kohl (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/world-leaders-pay-tribute-to-late-german-leader-helmut-kohl-in-strasbourg-vj5cfs3rf),

the West German chancellor. The Soviet Union at the time was so worried about the West launching a pre-emptive strike that Yuri Andropov, the KGB chief, ordered that all Soviet intelligence officers stationed overseas had to report any signs of war preparations, even down to whether the lights were on in London at government offices late into the night.

The British government alerted America to the Soviet fears after receiving detailed intelligence reports from Oleg Gordievsky (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dirty-nappy-and-bag-of-crisps-saved-british-spy-oleg-gordievsky-whdz7t7hr), the senior KGB official at the Soviet embassy in London who was serving as a double agent for MI6.

It was an era of high tension. By the 1980s the Soviet economy had stagnated and its soldiers were bogged down in Afghanistan. President Brezhnev died on November 10, 1982, leading to a power battle in the Kremlin that was only resolved with the selection of President Gorbachev in 1984.

In the US President Reagan denounced the Soviet Union as an “evil empire” and announced plans for a Star Wars anti-missile defence system while preparing to base Pershing II and cruise missiles in western Europe. In September 1983 the Soviet Union shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over the Sea of Japan, killing all 269 passengers and crew on board.

The new documents show that Perroots, who went on to become director of US defence intelligence, initially advised his superiors against “increasing our real alert posture” because the picture was uncertain. Only after Able Archer was over did he realise that the Soviet Union had prepared “for immediate use of nuclear weapons”.

His later assessment of the scare appears in his “end of tour” report in 1989 on his retirement. He expressed his disquiet over what he felt was “inadequate treatment of the Soviet war scare”.

He said that a lack of intelligence of Soviet intentions and apprehensions during Able Archer could have led to “a potentially disastrous situation”. He later admitted: “If I had known then what I later found out I am uncertain what advice I would have given.”

Fortunately, a few days after Able Archer was completed, the Soviet air force returned to “normal alert status”.

[Easy Street]

See also here (article includes a link to Gen Perroots's newly-released report):

Apocalypse Averted - The world came much closer to nuclear war than we realized in 1983 (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/02/able-archer-nuclear-war-reagan.amp?__twitter_impression=true)

[air pig]

Was at this time an alarm sounded and BAOR went on alert, war stocks issued and people and equipment taken to places they'd never seen before to positions ready prepared they never knew were there?

[Easy Street]

Was at this time an alarm sounded and BAOR went on alert, war stocks issued and people and equipment taken to places they'd never seen before to positions ready prepared they never knew were there?

Easy to say in hindsight, but if that's really what happened, it would have been a spectacularly unwise way to have run an exercise that was supporting a nuclear forces CPX! :eek: Hopefully you are thinking of another occasion?!

[Commander Taco]

I’ve not been able to find a good book on this episode - does anyone if anything has been written about Able Archer?

[Beamr]

A fictional tv series "Deutschland 83" was about that period, DDR spies and centred on the events around Able Archer.
Very good production and recommend to anyone interested in the era and events, though not a documentary of the events.

[Charlie India]

+1 for Deutschland 83, the sound track CD is rather good too.

With regard to a book try The World at the Brink 1983 by Taylor Downing, gives the background and events in context that preceded Able Archer and operation RYaN how close we came to Armageddon.

[Commander Taco]

Thanks Beamer, Deutschland 83 is where I first became aware of the Able Archer incident. Also enjoyed Deutschland 89 although was hoping to see Putin doing a cameo at the Dresden protests! And thanks Charlie India, I’ll scope the book out. I do wish Ben Macintyre would pull up his socks and get on this one.

[Not a Crew Chief]

Commander Taco et al.
Spoiler Alerts or better, no spoilers please. Deutschland 89 not on UK Terrestrial TV till 5th March. Have managed to avoid all reviews so far and waiting to be entertained/amused/disappointed* as appropriate.
Thanks.

[Less Hair]

The most impressive part of the story is that somehow the West did notice the East panicked so the West both halted the war games back then and avoided alarming or amassing it's own hardware.

[Asturias56]

IIRC it was info from the UK's Russian agent that was the deciding information......................

[Less Hair]

BRIXMIS might have played some role as well?

[A_Van]

The most impressive part of the story is that somehow the West did notice the East panicked so the West both halted the war games back then and avoided alarming or amassing it's own hardware.

There was no panic here at that time, at least in military. Maybe some politicians, foreign affairs and other civvies - I don't know. But not in the campus I served.

[Less Hair]

The soviet military armed up it's fighters with nukes and activated command centers at some places.
At Neuruppin, East Germany, fighter bombers were secretly armed up for example. Not boring routine it seems. They had even weight and balance issues due to jamming pods and nukes loaded at the same time.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39331/misinterpretation-of-1983-nato-exercise-led-to-the-soviets-arming-100-jets-for-nuclear-war

https://kingscollections.org/exhibitions/archives/espionage/defectors/ (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39331/misinterpretation-of-1983-nato-exercise-led-to-the-soviets-arming-100-jets-for-nuclear-war)

[blind pew]

Around that period I was working for Swissair and a captain, full of enthusiasm and pride, confided that he had been nominated to fly a DC9 to Canada for a government in exile.

[Lordflasheart]

...
Was this the WWIII that the late Colonel Stanislav Petrov stopped single handed - by disobeying KSOs - for which he was reprimanded, or one of the many other similar events - including in the movies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

He was awarded $1000 in 2006 - and a posthumous $50,000 in 2018

I'd have thought it was worth rather more than that, but hey ...... we're still alive

LFH
...

[ORAC]

No, this intelligence was provided by Oleg Gordievsky...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Gordievsky

[Less Hair]

Interesting collection of what the East was looking for back then: (Apologies for the terrible scan quality and quote layout)
permanent Operational Assignment to discover NATO Preparations for a Nuclear Attack on the USSR Section 1 - Immediate tasks of Residencies for Collecting Information and Organising their Work Top Secret Copy No.1 Attachment 1 1. Collect data about places where Government officials and members of their families are evacuated. Identify possible routes and methods of evacuation .. Make suggestions about ways of organising a ·watch to be kept on preparation and actual evacuation~ Time limit: 3rd quarter [by 30 September 1983] . 2. Identify the location of specially equipped Civil Defence shelters or premises ·' which could if necessary be used as shelters (underground garages and depots, basements, tunnels) and arrange for a periodical check on their state of preparedness to accommodate the population at a particular time. Time limit: 3rd quarter [by 30 September 1983] Report to Centre immediately if shelters are being taken out of storage or a start is. being made on preparing certain premises for accommodation of the. population. 3. One important sign that preparations are beginning for RYAN could be increased purchases of blood from donors and the prices paid for it and extension of the network of reception centres, since the. treatment of burns (the most widespread injury in a nuclear explosion) requires blood transfusions in very considerable quantity .. In this context, discover the location of several blooddonor reception centres, and find out how they operate and the price of the blood donated, and record any changes. Time limit: 2nd quarter [by 30 June 1983] If there is an unexpectedly sharp increase in the number of stationary and mobile blood donor centres and in.the prices paid, report at once to the Centre'\ . · {9 Put forward proposals for organising a \vatch on individual civil defence .Justallations~ Time limit: 2nd quarter [by 30 June 1983] . (5.) Identify several places which are most frequently visited outside. working 1lours by employees of institutions and installations connected with taking and implementing decisions regarding RYAN, including military personneL Put fonvard your selected. .. _._._.. __ )fi,A ... the possibility of regular nnc·.t::>t•·u·~nr~n of the DUl!CeSt Time limit: 2nd [by 30 June -~f Keep under regular observation the most important nrn't;~,;::::i.'t'1"n·nt:•n •-ru:~""'1"1ln'li'u:F~· headquarters and other installations involved in preparation for RYAN. S a list of immediate of observation to the Centre. the "nn.·f*f"niiir level of activity, of these targets in and out of working hours, the o signs of their daily activity in a normal situation (differences in the number cars collected there in the daytime and the evening, and in the number lighted windows in and out of working hours, and activity round these tars:ets·~ on non-working days). Find out, on the basis of the 'normal level' asce1"T"l 1 '"At'F. any changes in the indicators during special conferences, \\~"hen there is a situation (cars collected there out of hours, an increase in the number of windows at night in comparison with the 'normal level', or increased on non ... working days)~ 7. Set a regular watch for any significant changes in the police adminis system and the activity the special [i.e. security and intelligence] servic regard to Soviet citizens and institutions:, \vhich may be associated with aration for RYAN. On points 6 and 7 intonn Centre of the existence or absence of any ........ <1,ftN'tSM• of this kind regularly - once every two \Veeks. .

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB426/docs/9.Permanent%20Operational%20assignment%20to%20uncover%20NATO %20preparations%20for%20a%20nuclear%20missile%20attack%20on% 20the%20USSR-February%202,%201983.pdf
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/forecasting-nuclear-war