"The Great Airline Pilot Shortage Myth"

[Armchairflyer]

Apologies if it has been posted before (quick search resulted in no findings, though):

Part 1:
The Great Airline Pilot Shortage Myth (Part I) - YouTube

Part 2:
The Great Airline Pilot Shortage Myth (Part II) - YouTube

[LLuCCiFeR]

First time I've seen this video, thanks for posting! :ok:

Although I completely agree with the maker's observations of the sad current state of affairs in aviation, the "pilot shortage" lies spewed out by flying schools and airline managers and the 'race to the bottom effect' of deregulation in the late -70's, I disagree with his thesis that most of the decline in T&Cs is due to Chapter 11 and that the demand/supply curve is "a myth."

The laws of demand and supply (when supply goes up, prices/salaries go down) seem to be working juuuust fine in aviation as well, and it's been the decades long oversupply of pilots that has put salaries and perks under pressure. The number of pilots joining this professional pyramid scheme called aviation has been rising faster than the 'pay-for-training' or 'pay-to-fly' and 'fly-for-peanuts' airlines have been able to absorb. :ouch:

In Europe or in Asia there is no such thing as the extremely flexible US-style "Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection" and major airlines like BA, Lufthansa, KLM, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines have not gone bankrupt, yet salaries and perks for pilots have been on a downhill path for years. Most airlines get away with paying less salary and demanding more productivity in return because of the long queue of unemployed pilots willing to accept just about anything in order to work and/or log flying hours. This for a big part enables low cost airlines (Ryanair, easyJet, Air Asia, Hong Kong Airlines, Scoot, Jetstar etc) their much lower cost structure, and this again directly eats into the major airline's profitability, which then is used as a 'legitimate' argument to (re-)negotiate salaries downwards yet again. I believe this is called a vicious circle or a catch 22... :suspect:

Furthermore, the maker's overly simplistic world view of Asians eating cats and dogs, exotic Indian women "with shiny red dots on their foreheads" and Islamic laws regarding alcohol have very little to do with being a pilot and are an insult to the intelligence of educated people.
As a 'liberal, snobby, world traveling and good food loving' European I could drag the US's silly, outdated and prudish laws and customs regarding nudity (a topless woman on a beach in the US might face arrest and some twerking chick on MTV causes an outrage), censorship (say the F- or S-word on TV or the internet, or show a woman breastfeeding her child and this gets censored in the "home of the free"), prostitution (hey, it's the oldest profession in the world), that ridiculous drinking age of "over 21" in a nation full of binge drinkers and rehab clinics, or that disgustingly greasy, sugary synthetic tasteless US food into the argument, but then again, this has very little to do with aviation.

It's the continuous oversupply of heavily indebted, young, naive, canon-fodder, flying school graduates has been the main problem in aviation for decades, not just in the US but worldwide!

[AerocatS2A]

I disagree with supply/demand being a myth as well. Having lived through a period of low supply and high demand in the pilot job market, I personally saw my own base salary increase by around 15%. In addition we were the recipients of hundreds of thousands of dollars in retention bonuses. Our company was particularly hard hit as it had typically been a stepping stone to the airlines, but it was a stepping stone that could be skipped when demand was high enough. I saw the minimum qualifications fall from 1500 hours to 1000 hours and we even experimented successfully with at least one 250 hour pilot. Other turboprop companies followed suit. I have also seen, recently, a localised shortage of pilots wanting to fly for my current company forcing that company to significantly improve its T&Cs. Big salary increases for FOs, minor increases for captains and some major improvements in conditions.

The point is anyone who thinks the supply/demand equation doesn't work for the pilot job market hasn't lived through one. When a company stops getting applications they absolutely will improve pay and conditions to retain experience and to attract new blood.

[waren9]

aerocat you just demonstrated the company can manipulate supply to satisfy demand.

pilot wages do not follow the true free market supply and demand model.

[Calmcavok]

Hmmm. Had to stop on the second video when confronted with misinformation and casual racism. Credibility gone.

[AerocatS2A]

Waren, explain what you mean?

As I see it, the demand for pilots at our company outstripped supply available at the current conditions. Conditions had to be improved to improve the supply.

You could say that there never was a supply problem because once conditions improved the supply improved (ie the pilots were already out there). But if there ever was a true supply shortage where no improvement in conditions would improve the supply, our company would have gone under and that is not a good way to be.

All we need is for the demand for pilots to be high enough that companies have to compete with each other on conditions. That's what happened and it was great if you happened to get carried along by it.

[waren9]

lowering hiring minimums by definition increases supply. it increases the number of pilots eligible for employment

there was no true shortage because they simply manipulated supply.

i dont know your employers circumstances but it sounds to me like your 15% payrise was an attempt at retention. the payrise being cheaper than increased training costs associated with pilots moving on?

look at it this way. a true shortage is when they open the door to all comers who are legally allowed to fill the seat and they still have vacancies.

[Anthill]

One of the biggest impediments to being able to get a 'market rate' for wages and salaries is date-of-joining seniority. This creates a system where employers have a captive labour supply. Some years ago, I left a strictly datal seniority company (where some very inexperienced pilots where being promoted to captain) for a direct entry command. Aside from the command, I got a $50,000 per year pay rise. :ok:

[jamie1985]

For me, Anthill's point (above) on the downsides of seniority is very true. The lack of ability of established pilots to shift airlines to improve their situation, is a major impediment to a free market for pilots.

In my opinion, one of the greatest management cons of all time has been convincing pilots that seniority works in their favour.

[AerocatS2A]

lowering hiring minimums by definition increases supply. it increases the number of pilots eligible for employment

there was no true shortage because they simply manipulated supply.

i dont know your employers circumstances but it sounds to me like your 15% payrise was an attempt at retention. the payrise being cheaper than increased training costs associated with pilots moving on?

look at it this way. a true shortage is when they open the door to all comers who are legally allowed to fill the seat and they still have vacancies.

Yes I understand your point, however from our point of view as pilots the situation was as good as a genuine shortage. Those who normally wouldn't have got jobs were getting jobs and the conditions improved.

We actually wouldn't want a true shortage. No one would benefit from aeroplanes being pushed up against the fence for a year or two while everyone scrambled around trying to entice new ab-initio pilots. Ideally we want supply to roughly meet demand so that there is enough pilots but they generally have some choice of who to work for.

[waren9]

imagine what your payrise might have been if your employer could not manipulate supply?

they would then have to match or better other employment offers to attract sufficient numbers.

[Prob40]

I don't think the author meant to be racist. He points out that you may end up away from home and away from culture that you can relate to.

These videos are a great public service and the man should be knighted!

Only today I was with a new 250hr FO fresh out of one of the UK's major pilot training schools and he had clearly been filled with BS about the second coming!

Now I've been flying for cash for a decade and I've heard it all before and all I have seen is things get worse and worse for me and others.

If people tell me they want to be a pilot, I tell them to be a lawyer, or something else that pays real money so they can choose to fly when they want, with whom they want and in what they want.

The young kiddy in question has just blown mega bucks on his new licence and will spend his life paying for it!

[AerocatS2A]

they would then have to match or better other employment offers to attract sufficient numbers.

They did better other employment offers. I'm talking hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonuses for each Captain over a three year period.

[fireflybob]

Pilot scarcity helps CTC sales take off (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10407824/Pilot-scarcity-helps-CTC-sales-take-off.html)

it believes there will be “huge potential” for further expansion before 2020

Well they would say that wouldn't they?

[tailend]

King Canute couldn’t hold back the tide and nor can the financial forces that will continue to drive down flying Ts & Cs. The latest package I’ve heard of from my Asian students is to pay for type rating, pay for line training and the first 3 years as an FO unpaid. If there is a pilot shortage or even one on the horizon the laws of supply and demand are defying gravity because the scheme is oversubscribed.

Even captains are not immune. An old pal has declined an upgrade to captain as he’s expected to pay for the privilege. Retired western captains may well be making hay in China right now but that window of opportunity is fast closing as nationals step up to the plate and domestic schools fast track training for FO’s.

In time India and China will be cranking out more fast tracked pilots per year than populations of small towns, which will continue to drive down Ts & Cs as European airlines tap into a plentiful and cheaper resource. (India already produces more medical grads per year than all UK grads, so why do you think our medical schools now produce so few medics?).

A well known airline has publicly stated that pilot training will henceforth be a profit centre. But selling jobs at a profit is not confined to airlines. Flying is a vocation and oversupplied with willing mules. But it is merely in the vanguard of making a market in jobs. Buying good careers is a huge untapped source of income and flying is just the start of this trend.

There is an oversupply of skilled youngsters generally and you can see the same trend in other markets. The ‘intern’ market has grown from being a smart way for companies to take on free labour for menial tasks into charging the poor interns for the privilege of gaining ‘experience’. Remember these new intern generations are competing globally, just as pilots do. What you’ve seen in the flying world is just the start of turning mainstream careers into markets.

We live in an ‘accountant-ocracy’ where nothing but spreadsheet numbers matter: safety, dignity and quality have no value other than shaved to the barest minimum and indeed legal penalties await those who complain! Anyone who has had the misfortune of flying from Luton knows just how degraded humanity can be to save a buck: the airport owners, the government agencies and pax alike (including me) should hang their heads in shame.

Safety is the only lever and frankly airline flight is extraordinarily safe. The insurance industry puts a price on perceived safety and P2F for JAR 250 hour co-pilots doesn’t bother them. Over reliance on automation doesn’t seem to have affected premiums either. Clear evidence indicates that some pilots don’t monitor their airspeed whilst landing, can’t go round or have forgotten how to recover from a stall, and that doesn’t appear to worry the insurance industry either. So safety isn’t an issue: it isn’t a lever.

The future of a flying career is the MPL P2F package. The most perfect risk and cost free pilot supply mechanism conceived of by airlines. Cadets pay for their MPL, type rating and line training. They won’t be paid for the first few years and when they do it will be minimal as he or she will be competing with vast, cheaper and every bit as competent labour pools inbound from Asia.

Meanwhile conditions will be constantly eroded. As for the flying, I quote a salesman from a large airframe manufacturer: the only problems in flying arise when pilots are allowed to get their hands on the controls. Automation will erode your skills too.

So when you’ve finally climbed the greasy pole and are offered a chance of captaincy you’ll be paying all over again. King Canute decided he’d had enough. He obviously didn’t have the flying bug! The bug explains why there is no shortage, there never will be.

[mike734]

I only got through the first 5 minutes before I turned it off due to my impression this was produced by a disgruntled pilot, disappointed that he had not achieved his career goal. There were so many inaccurate generalizations I couldn't listen anymore.

I have flown as a contract captain for several airlines over the years and my experience is that supply directly affected my pay. Of course the trade off is that I had no job security.

Is there a pilot shortage? Not really. Not yet. But the projected number of required retirements and the projected number of new pilots in the training pipeline suggest there will be a shortage, at least in the USA. Will pay increase? Of course. My airline had a lower starting salary, "B" scale when I started 17 years ago. After several new hires left to go to United our company unilaterally eliminated the B-scale in an effort to retain new pilots. If pilots pay increases it's going to be first at the regionals who stand to lose experienced captains. There are plenty of motivated experienced first officers to replace them but who will replace the first officers? Who has 1500 hours and is willing to work for $20,000/yr without the promise of good pay someday?

Regional pay will have to increase to the point where they can retain pilots. Major pay will increase to attract new pilots into the industry. Ab initio programs will have to become more common to keep the supply of new pilots coming. I think the future looks bright for the prospective pilot. About the only things I see that could radically change the outlook are, global economic depression, a massive fuel crisis or fully automated airplanes. Only time will tell.