Boeing reduces forecast for European pilot demand

[Mr-P]

Today Boeing issued a statement saying they have increased their forecast for pilots globally BUT not for Europe where the forecast has reduced.

Perhaps they starting to realise that although they have plenty of orders the older planes are not going to go somewhere else but simply retired early and dare I say it but perhaps a load of order cancellations will come soon??

What do you guys think, are the likes of Wizz Air with quite a few outstanding A320's and Norwegian with a huge order book really going to take on all these aircraft? I guess Norwegian are in fact hoping to profit from Asian carriers buying their production slots?

Boeing Forecasts Increased Global Demand for Airline Pilots - Aug 29, 2013 (http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2013-08-29-Boeing-Forecasts-Increased-Global-Demand-for-Airline-Pilots)

[Rick777]

The funny thing is that I read this article in USA Today, and there was another article on the same page about airlines down sizing and laying off people

[Mr-P]

Ha yeah I guess you mean this one? The same old, there is a massive shortage just around the corner however today even though we haven't recruited in 10 years we still need to lay people off, some shortage!!

Fewer airline jobs: Cuts at AA, regionals spur decline (http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayinthesky/2013/08/29/fewer-airline-jobs-cuts-at-aa-regionals-spur-decline/2726227/)

[DeltaT]

I can't seem to find anything on the internet historically to find boeing forecasts from about a decade ago to see how accurate their predictions have been.
Anyone found any really old ones?

With what is happening in the Middle East right now, it is a bad time to be making predictions on aviation!

[NEWYEAR]

This statement from Boeing is being sponsored by the schools in order to make more pilotos as sweet cakes, above all in Asia. Also, ATO (TRTO) are interested in keeping its status so that they can have more courses for TR so...This kind of advertisment in this date September, is pure marketing.

[break_break]

It's really more of market forces, Supply vs Demand, and pure economics in the Airlines' management eyes.

Thousands of well educated youths are jobless worldwide, but many either with sheer determination to save up or, lucky to have deep pocketed parents who are willing to finance the flying dream, blinded by the ever colorful flight school pamphlets that promise the sky.

The aircraft manufacturers wouldn't want it any other way. Both Airbus and Boeing need not be sponsored, they WANT to drum the message of shortage of pilots to ensure CHEAP pilots are consistently of abundance. How else are the Airlines' beancounters gonna earn their bonuses if they aren't enough fools to help sponsor flight training? The planes will get even more easier to fly, and statistic will continue to impress and how long does it take for everyone to forget about a perfectly flyable and proven 777 that was stalled to the ground?

It's too late now, LoCos and many other carriers are naming their price to induct desperate candidates for P2F, or similar schemes. Passengers are spoiled with $9.99 return on a 2 hours sector, and will frown upon if they ever have to pay a cent more on the same sector.

I did not have a crystal ball, but I could surely read the trend and started planning to get out of aviation more than a decade ago and am proud to say that I'll be retiring well ahead of my initial plan. I'm glad that I do not have kids who wish to be involved in aviation, although I had consistently failed in my effort to dissuade my relatives' off springs from getting involved. I do not blame them, but the future is too bleak that I could only wish them luck.

[Mr-P]

break_break

I agree wholeheartedly with what you said there. The crux of the "pilot shortage" is without doubt derived at reducing the costs inside the flight deck.

I could just imagine the conversations between Mr Boeing and ACME airlines.
ACME: I would love to buy some more A/C from you Mr Boeing but these pesky pilots simply cost us too much money.
Mr. Boeing: If I could reduce the cost of your flight deck would you then buy these additional A/C?
ACME: Sure would, if you could halve the cost of the flight deck I would double my order with you.
Mr. Boeing: Leave it with me...

"Voila" press release detailing huge shortage for pilots hence flooding the market with hopefuls desperate to get a job, T's & C's go down the toilet.

Mission accomplished!

Just for a laugh I thought I would crunch some numbers..(it's only for a bit of fun guys/gals so please don't go all matter of fact on me, glaring omissions are accepted)

Mr. Boeing says:
Europe needs ~100,000 pilots over the next 20 years.
100,000/20 = 5,000 per year, sounds a lot?? Well that is for the whole of Europe. Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe) states that Europe as we know it is now ~740,000,000 with 50 countries.

The UK is one of those with a population of ~61,000,000.
(61M/740M)x100= ~8.2% of the total population.

From the CAA website (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=175&pagetype=90&pageid=11764) it shows that for the last 5 years or so they have been issuing ~1300 CPL(A)'s per year. So....
(1300/5000)x100=26%!!!!

I appreciate the UK perhaps has a larger aviation industry than some of the countries in Europe but 26%, I sincerely doubt it.

On a closing note maybe some of you guys/gals from other European countries can look at your own CAA's especially in the larger countries to see how many CPL's they're issuing? I'm sure that the top 5 largest players in Europe are already spewing out way more than the 5000 required per year to fulfil this forecasted demand.

[break_break]

Mr. P
Greetings.
Numbers won't lie, as you rightly pointed out.

I can forgive one for not seeing, or agreeing with the numbers or facts, I can even close an eye if one has to foot his travel cost all the way to fly for a domestic carrier with limited network somewhere in the remote continent. But to not see it, when proper Air Carriers everywhere are making pilots pay for cost of hiring, plus rating, and a heavily discounted salary during transition, THAT is beyond sadness.

It's pointless trying to highlight the obvious, when the bottom line is set so low among wannabes. It's a free world we call it, and I have no right to stop anyone from believing anything they so wish. The only hope I have, is that somehow, these could just use their intelligence in knowing that if the airlines really are short of pilots, the airlines will come knocking on their doors and not the other way round.

I know most of you folks have really lowered the bar so much, but please, do yourself a big favor. If ANY outfit requires you to pay upfront of ANY fee before even being offered a job, just SLAM the door real hard on them to send a clear message.