Met Officers please comment

[orionsbelt]

Ive been using 60 Hr forcast , TAFs, F214/5 etc and the Met office Weather Radar to allow me to plan and fly right up to the bad weather hitting the local area. In the past the Weather Radar displays have been very accurate even to the minute. And the TAF's etc are great.
However just lately the Radar displays have been telling lies. Today it was showing Rain in my local area for over 2 hours, but not a drop was seen. This is not the first time this has happened. I Know I'm getting old, but am I missing something. Has this animation been changed to forecast rather than actual????? Whats going on?

:ugh:

Cheers ***

[langleybaston]

I am 16 years retired so could be wrong.

Moi?

If you access the Met Office site you are offered forecasts or observations. The map/ rainfall in forcast is exactly that, a forecast.
Within observations, the rainfall radar will only run forward to 15 minutes ago. That leaves you with the task of extrapolation of course.

However, there is always an ongoing struggle with calibrating radar returns against ground truth, and this might also be a short-term problem

[switch_on_lofty]

Recently I've noticed that the system is prone to spokes of rain that are not at all rain, just interference looking like rain in a segment of a particular radar.

Another explanation might be that the rain is falling but evaporating before hitting the ground or the alt that you are flying at.

[taxydual]

I find this useful

Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | MeteoGroup (http://www.raintoday.co.uk/)

[Dysonsphere]

Recently I've noticed that the system is prone to spokes of rain that are not at all rain, just interference looking like rain in a segment of a particular radar.

Quite seems to be happening often now. If you want to use it to predict rainfall use the play funchion and you will have a good idea of the rains track across the UK

[orionsbelt]

Well that's a relief at least its not me.

In the older days the rainfall radar was J band 15,000 Meghz systems.

Have the '''Experts''' now upgraded the systems to modern digital type things.
ie bit like our new digital TV that now stops working when its raining.
Any ideas or maybe that's what the met office should now start using!!!!!
Cheers
***

edited to correct frequency

[thing]

Have noticed personally that mil tafs tend to be on the pessimistic side too.

[langleybaston]

Regarding radar wavelength, there is an optimum for detecting ships, another optimum for aircraft, and an optimum for rainfall, so I doubt if there has been much change except in peripherals.

Regarding radial spokes, nobody intelligent enough to pilot an aircraft will see them as other than spurious. I hope.

I doubt if TAFs have ever been other than a tad pessimistic, much like an Airfield Warning.

I introduced the first objective study of TAF accuracy in BFG c. 1990. It is a very complicated thing to analyse, and needs customer input: for example is cloud base/ vis more or less important than cross-wind? Over a three year period we managed to drive up standards MEASURED BY THE CUSTOMER'S CRITERIA. Then the inevitable happened and Met HQ imposed their own system which bore little resemblance to SASO's criteria.

Its called progress.

[tubby linton]

I think that Brize tends to understate their taf and actual. They certainly did when they were giving 2000m but it was more like 400 when we reached DA and subsequently went round. The six hours spent at our alternate waiting for the weather to improve to Cat1 were certainly some of the most wasted hours of my life..

[langleybaston]

If you are saying the actual visibility quoted was 2000m and the truth was 400m visibility,

SH1T happens

Which is why meteorology was / is? taught to aircrew, to allow informed decisions when said SH1T happens. In the days of LB teaching aircrew, they got nearly 40 hours of Met. in the classroom, face to face, classes of about 12 graduates. I don't know about the studes, but my theory knowledge was very good after three years!

Over every Met Office door it should read

WHEN I'M RIGHT NO ONE REMEMBERS
WHEN I'M WRONG NO ONE FORGETS