The future of Middle East

[cucuotto]

So you are joining a Gulf carrier. Good idea? Have you considered everything?. I would not do it but if you don't have alternatives...
But this is what some analyst think it will happen.
First of all why this tiny Middle Age states are investing so strongly in aviation?
Have you ever asked this question yourself ? Well the answer could be that aviation will be one of the only two oil intensive industries in the near future, the other being sea shipping. The demand of oil is set to fall vertically and some analyst foresee the barrel at or below 30 USD in two years. This is due to the continued growth of alternative energies which are reaching economical viability without subsidies with the advantage of their contribute preventing the extinction of many life form including humans form the planet, and to increased output from the US that is set to reach energy ind independence pretty soon. Gasoline and diesel consumption are down already 30% in some countries and will go down on exponentially in the next 10 years when electric and H2 will become mainstream. The stability of these anachronistic states is based essentially on populism and subsidization trough oil revenues. The vast majority of locals don't work and live on luxurious Government minimum salaries and this is how social peace is maintained and democracy kept away form local's mind. The work is done mainly by expat slaves ( sorry.. you will be one of them) and the attempt to stimulate the growth of local work force are falling behind. But with oil down to that level of prices the various Rulers will not be able to maintain the status quo for long .
Social unrest will automatically unravel. Buying and flying hundreds of airplanes is the only way to keep the price of oil up a bit in the short term but the on going achievement of mass production bio kerosene will seal the fate for the Gulf states as we know them and a probable return to camels.
I would very careful planning long term in the Gulf...if I were you.

[Calmcavok]

some analyst foresee the barrel at or below 30 USD

Some, or one?! Not going to happen in 2 years!

[littlejet]

The major growth in ME was when the barrel was 17 USD.
Major downturn when it was 146.

[Wizofoz]

Two years?

There are no alternative power sources that are likely to be viable in the next two decades!!

Gasoline and diesel consumption are down already 30% in some countries

Yes- in response to COST.

have a look at consumtion where fuel is cheap. If oil came down to $30 per barrel, comsumption would skyrocket.

[Huw Jorgan]

Lot of guff, maybe turned down for a job eh!

[Capt Roo]

A Goldman Sachs "analyst" has predicted that oil could come down to $30 a barrel "soon".
Possibly the same guy who forecast it would hit $200 in about 2006.
Don't think anyone really knows - too many factors at play. Shale Oil, natural gas prices falling etc.
Interesting book out in the UK "After the Sheiks" by Christopher Davidson. Doesn't look good for the future of the region. Banned in the Persian Gulf no doubt.

[Dropp the Pilot]

"Persian" Gulf, you say?

I pray we are all long gone from the region before that little development happens...

[MrMachfivepointfive]

Also:
- Elvis is coming home in an UFO disguised as comet PAN-STARRS.
- Hitler has agreed to refuel him at his lunar base.
- Kennedy is planning to celebrate his 95th birthday with both of them. He is still top secret adviser to THEM at THEIR secret Himalayan hideout.
The ley lines tell it all.

Ya-Allah, man! Where is all that genius coming from?

[Comanche]

The world is slowly reaching maximum possible oil production = peak oil. Current oil production can be maintained, possibly grown slightly but at great expenditure and effort. Fracking and projects like the Artic National Wildlife Refuge barely make a dent, mostly around 1% of current global production (85 million barrels per day or so). New discoveries and techniques can barely offset existing declines. This is from the supply side.

From the demand side, 80% of the population is only just starting to consume oil with most incremental demand coming from emerging economies. At 2% average annual growth rates, a new Saudi would have to come online by 2025. Exponential growth is one of nature's biggest forces. Unfortunately, supply growth rates (if any growth) are not.

Never say never to $30 a barrel, but it's highly unlikely. Oil prices fluctuate more wildly due to many factors involved, but it's an oscillating upward trend. Hydrogen is an energy sink. Electricity will still need to be produced. Windmills only deliver electricity around 25% of the year the first years, then wear will reduce their load factor to around 15%. Current generation alternatives will not replace fossil fuels at the same rate and scale at which the world currently consumes them. 85 million barrels per day is around 4 olympic size pools per minute.

[Rwy in Sight]

cucuotto,
Would you bet even a modest sum of let's say 10,000 €/ 15,000$ on the prediction (sp) that oil would be 30$ in two years? I bet that even the analyst who did this guessing wouldn't.

Two years is a short term in financial/economic consideration and we don't have anything in place to replace a serious percentage of mineral fuels using on ground transport. And Wizofoz is right on the corellation between cost and consumption.

Oil is here to stay and Gulf countries are taking formidable advantage of their low taxation and location.

Rwy in Sight

[Payscale]

Maybe oil will be in short supply, but there is no short supply of people that will publicly offer expert opinions on anything. One moment an aviation expert, the next an oil futures expert offering opinions on the future of the whole ME.... bit of a mouthful dont you think?

[Comanche]

Payscale, if only you knew my background... cannot say more. Not even sure why I bothered posting.

[Payscale]

I dont know your back ground. I know mine. I am a pilot. A pilot posting on a pilot web site...
You might be Greenspan himself...but you are still posting on a pilot site... makes me suspect you are also a pilot with an interest in political predictions..

[Comanche]

Apart from my background - in let's call it the energy sector - I am also a pilot. I normally wouldn't start or contribute to this subject on this forum, but since Cucuotto brought it up I thought I'd offer my knowledge. Aviation and energy are closely linked, it certainly wouldn't hurt to look beyond our cockpits once in a while. Political predictions? Politics is only a small part, it's mostly about geology, physics and economics. I am done posting here, all the best to you Payscale.

[Non Zero]

Someone said "Stone Age didn't end because we run out of stones!"

[Capt Roo]

Dropp - are you really a pilot?

My Pilot's Free Flight atlas clearly shows that body of water between Iran and Persia to be the Persian Gulf. So does Google earth, my iPad's Nat Geo app and the Times Atlas.

Obviously your Masters (Owners) have you well conditioned. Money cannot change history you know or rename the world to your liking.

[Dropp the Pilot]

My, you certainly are a geographically-gifted bunny.

In the spirit of empiricism, how 'bout you try this: Next time you transit the area and you are "checkin' in" with Bahrein, Kuwait, Doha, Abu Dhabi or Riyadh ATC, include in your transmission the information that your position is over the Persian Gulf. It seems likely they will help you with your confusion - perhaps with an object lesson.

[vfenext]

Oh please can I be on the frequency when Roo makes that call. I love blood sports. Better still include the reference in your PA and see how impressed your pax are. A little knowledge......

[170to5]

Even better Roo, how about you educate yourself (that means learn) what and where exactly Persia is and where it refers to, you'll find that there ain't much of a Gulf between Iran and Persia...

[virginexcess]

Do you really think a couple of hundred wide bodies will affect the price of oil.

In the big scheme of things it is but a drop in the bucket.

[Wizofoz]

Here is the simple answer...have the arabs make a claim to have the name changed....simple

Err- make a claim with Whom?

Which is the big "International office in charge of what things are called"?

[Swan Man]

It is simple, as long as westerns keep staying in the middle east the region has a chance. If the westerns decide to leave in mass, highly unlikely and leave the running of day to day operations to the locals they are screwed big time. There is no talent or know how for the locals to run and run efficiently the countries here.
The middle east as a whole is in a big perdictament. They are losing ground to the rest of the world. Not one country is a democaracy, well one is but they practice a different religion and that is for another tread. For the most part every country is a totaltarian swamp.
So what do the dicators do? If they educate their population the masses get wise and say enough with this totaltarian crap and overthrow the unelected dicators. If they are kept in the state they are in the countries contunie to slide further behind the rest of the world. What do they do? Stay tuned and find out.

[Wizofoz]

Largely agree, Swan Man, with one proviso- Have a look at what is happening in countries in the region who HAVE overthrown their dictators and embraced their own version of "Democracy".

It's often better to have a benign dictatorship than an irrational electorate.

[FishHead]

Which is the big "International office in charge of what things are called"?
That'd be the International Hydrographic Organisation Welcome to IHO (http://www.iho.int), and in particular Publication S-23 “Limits of Oceans and Seas” (which comes down on the side of The Persian Gulf in it's current edition - the 3rd)

[Rwy in Sight]

The issue of the type of government is fairly irrelevant as long as it maintains a high level of living for its citizens. As long as people have nice houses, good healthcare, clean cities ... they just not care how the rulers are defined. The poor Arabic nations end up with revolutions while for the rich ones it is business as usual.

As long as the income is there no reason to worry.

Wizofoz, I do agree with your statement.

Rwy in Sight

[Wizofoz]

Fish,

Thanks, I though there WAS probably some international body, but that doesn't make USE of a particular name universal or enforcable.

[170to5]

Outlaw

While we're at it, then, could we instead call the land mass south of the United Kingdom "South Britain"?! It would be the greatest move towards European integration for some time :}

170

[Swan Man]

Wiz I hear what you are saying but there is hardly ever a benign dictatorship. Absolute power corrupts absolutely and that has never been more so than in the middle east.
I wonder if the locals will ever get wise? Me doesn't think so.

[Guru8904]

It is simple, as long as westerns keep staying in the middle east the region has a chance. If the westerns decide to leave in mass (Sunday?), highly unlikely and leave the running of day to day operations to the locals they are screwed big time. There is no talent or know how for the locals to run and run efficiently the countries here.
The middle east as a whole is in a big perdictament. They are losing ground to the rest of the world. Not one country is a democaracy, well one is but they practice a different religion and that is for another tread. For the most part every country is a totaltarian swamp.
So what do the dicators do? If they educate their population the masses get wise and say enough with this totaltarian crap and overthrow the unelected dicators. If they are kept in the state they are in the countries contunie to slide further behind the rest of the world. What do they do? Stay tuned and find out. ELP 7+ unh?
Referring to your last sentence, I would have loved to stay tuned if I had had the guts to watch in silence, a decent language being raped.