Lionair plane down in Bali.

[Boeing Europe]

Lionair Plane crash on Bali , looks like a runway overrun all have survived.

[despegue]

Pay to fly airline, now also for Captain Upgrades... congratulations Lionair for singlehandedly being responsible for almost half the worldwide incidents on B737:ugh:
Get their AOC revoked NOW.

[Omychron]

Aircraft ended up in water, broke in half.

Pesawat lion jatuh ke laut di bali ... Semoga Tuhan melindungi Photo - Brian Sitohang | Lockerz (http://pics.lockerz.com/s/289482450?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=og)

[1stspotter]

here another picture of the Lion Air in the sea, taken from the air.
Aircraft is PK-LKS
http://t.co/fOHBi8BywQ
and
http://www.geenstijl.nl/archives/images/baliplanepica.jpg
and
https://twitter.com/infohots/status/323008400826970112/photo/1

Taken from Indonesian forum
"A pilot landing a few mins earlier than the JT accident aircraft noted "conditions at the time were prone to windshear"

[toffeez]

At least there are not sharklets in the water.

[ozbiggles]

Speed brake?

I'll expand now.? Means where is it, not it caused it!

[pilotchute]

A quick look at the picture suggests it never made it to the runway as the perimeter fence seems intact. Any speculation on how it got there?

[1stspotter]

Well informed Indonesian aviation sources says the aircraft undershoot.
It never made the runway at landing at Denpassar airport. Runway is next to the ocean.

Aircraft is btw just two months old. Delivered by Boeing in February 2013 to Malindo (sister company of Lion Air based in Malaysia). After one month it went to Lion Air
Malindo Air - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malindo_Air)

Runway in use at Denpassar at time of crash was 09.

[golfyankeesierra]

Bet the insurance will be interested in the details.
Boeing's recovery team is not going to fix this one....

[TWT]

It'll become a 'sunken wreck' for the scuba diving tourists.

[1stspotter]

AVherald reports the aircraft overrun after landing and went into the ocean.
Other reports mention it undershot:
1. runway 09 in use
2. aircraft is very close to final 09
3. windshear reported at 09
4. fence at 09 end still okay

Accident: Lionar B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, overran runway and came to stop in sea (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0)

[flynerd]

Doomed from the start.

Lion = Lithium Ion perhaps?

Great that all got out OK.

And just why did the hull crack where it did? At that point there should have been minimal forces compared to other areas.

[Corsairoz]

Goodle Maps Satellite view of location here:

Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia - Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Denpasar,+Bali,+Indonesia&hl=en&ll=-8.745124,115.161438&spn=0.030328,0.0424&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=49.357162,86.835938&oq=denpasar&hnear=Denpasar,+Bali,+Indonesia&t=h&z=15)

[Eastern_Skyjets]

They all said it would happen to Lion air, they were right such a shame :(

[Mikehotel152]

Where is the stabiliser?

[SOPS]

Your right Mike, the stab seems to have gone.

[763 jock]

Lion Air are about to offer a "great new opportunity for engineers". A $50000 down payment gets you a place on our exclusive "pay to repair" scheme.:E

[Eastern_Skyjets]

http://avherald.com/img/lionair_b738_pk-lks_denpasar_130413_1.jpgnotice the fuselage has seperated behind the wings

[Mr A Tis]

Aside from how the aircraft ended up where it did, there should, at least be some credit for a successful evacuation. By all accounts, so far, all survived.

[DaveReidUK]

And just why did the hull crack where it did? At that point there should have been minimal forces compared to other areas.

That rather depends on which part of the airframe hit the water first. As mentioned above, the apparently detached horizontal stabilizer might give a clue.

[Pucka]

If it undershot 09, that's a water impact along way from the threshold. Sadly, Lion have a massive systemic problem at all levels but once again, its the Indonesian regulators that have failed in their duty to Audit this mob..corruption hits the mark every time. Lion should have had their AOC pulled years ago.

[Metro man]

Possibly another Korean Air situation with the insures coming up ? ie Get some EXPERIENCED expats in the cockpit or no more coverage.

[Greenlights]

If it undershot 09, that's a water impact along way from the threshold. Sadly, Lion have a massive systemic problem at all levels but once again, its the Indonesian regulators that have failed in their duty to Audit this mob..corruption hits the mark every time. Lion should have had their AOC pulled years ago.

exactly. Since they are all alive, now I can tell, (call me crazy or nasty), but I am happy this story will open an investigation and point the lights on this airline...it had to happen soon or later anyway.

[Braviator]

I believe it was an overrun from 27. There's no way it undershot 09... There is so much coral poking out of the sea on final it woulda been ripped to pieces... Not to mention the crew not knowing what to do. Heard FO was P2F from Holland... Even if it was a mechanical issue or due to a severe tailwind caused by windshear, my opinion on the P2F issue still stands.

[1stspotter]

This page has an overview of B737 incidents and accidents. Indonesian airlines and Lion Air specifically are listed quite a few times.
PERFORMANCE REFERENCE HANDBOOK 737 (http://www.performance737.com/incidents.html)

From avherald
Lionar B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, overran runway and came to stop in sea
Lionair B734 at Pontianak on Dec 30th 2012, runway excursion on landing
Lion B734 at Pontianak on Nov 1st 2012, overran runway on landing
Lionair MD90 at Jakarta on Mar 9th 2009, departed runway on landing
Lionair B739 at Pekanbaru on Feb 14th 2011, runway excursion on landing
Lionair B739 at Pekanbaru on Feb 15th 2011, overran runway on landing
Lionair B734 at Pontianak on Nov 2nd 2010, overran runway on landing
Lionair B734 at Pontianak on Nov 2nd 2010, overran runway on landing

<O'Leary mode on>Lion Air does operate a lot of flights per day<MOL mode off>

[BOAC]

As Pucka says, "If it undershot 09, that's a water impact along way from the threshold" and looking at the sat image of the undershoot it is difficult to work out where and how. If it was, it was some undershoot!

Braviator - that does not make sense! "I believe it was an overrun from 27. There's no way it undershot 09. There is so much coral poking out of the sea on final it woulda been ripped to pieces." - same place??

[boerdet]

Seeing the metars:
Metars:
WADD 130830Z 10008KT 9999 SCT017 29/25 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130800Z 10009KT 9999 FEW017CB SCT017 30/26 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130730Z 15006KT 110V270 9999 FEW017CB SCT017 30/25 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130700Z 09006KT 9999 BKN017 30/26 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130630Z 16003KT 090V190 9999 BKN017 30/25 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130600Z 18007KT 9999 BKN016 30/25 Q1007 NOSIG
WADD 130530Z 18008KT 9999 SCT015 FEW016CB 30/26 Q1008 NOSIG
WADD 130500Z 19005KT 150V210 9999 BKN015 30/25 Q1008 NOSIG

and the wind, there is not at first a microburst, gust or squall in my mind. How far away is wind mast from treshold?

Tim

[Braviator]

@ BOAC... If it undershot runway 27 it would have ended up on the Freeway... If it undershot 09 it would have ended up in the sea, in a million pieces. So it wasn't an undershoot on 09, it landed 27 and looks like if anything it rolled through and ended up in the sea at the end of 27 (which, yes, would happen to be final of 09...) Make sense now? :O

[deptrai]

The way Lion Air is operating...they have the odds stacked against them. Glad to see that everyone survived (apparently), this could have ended so much worse.

I'm a free market economics kind of person, but I have to admit, the older I get, the more I feel some of the basic assumptions are flawed. People simply aren't rational. And consumers often don't know what they buy. For outfits like Lion Air, eventually insurance companies might put their foot down and require certain conditions to be met (assuming they are rational), but hell yes, I'd sure like to see more government oversight for outfits like Lion Air, it could add an extra layer of safety, before it's too late (again assuming bureaucrats are rational).

[320busdriver]

Wow crazy they really need to beef up their standard if it was indeed pilot error:ugh:far too many times for Lionair, it really can`t be bad luck systematic bad flight crew and training, there are no shorts cuts to being a good pilot, hard work, experience, planning and relentless detail to flight regardless as someone mentioned Lionair has lots of flights.:=

On another note i seem to see a pattern with 737 that have overshot runways they seem to breakup, this was covered a few years ago on al jazeera with 2 boeing employees whistle blowing on bad company practices on manufacturing and build, seems they were spot on, and please:= this is not an airbus vs boeing observation, i flew both and love both:ok:, each have their own qualities. - just saying as i see it -

[1stspotter]

Picture of captain walking away from crash scene
https://twitter.com/ZulfikarOey/status/323024461555191809/photo/1

[swp53]

320Busdriver
Just what I was thinking.

People & Power - On a wing and a prayer - YouTube

[Toruk Macto]

Indonesian govt where about to relax the 250 hrs on type rule to allow Lion air to employ less experience ( pay to Fly) pilots . Think it may cost Lion air even more now to make that happen .

[KarlADrage]

Now saying it landed short while approaching 09:
Accident: Lionar B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, came to stop in sea (http://avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0)

[Lancelot37]

Ref Aviation Herald "Radar data confirm the aircraft was approaching runway 09 and suggest the aircraft was about 100 feet below a 3 degrees glidepath descending at 700 feet per minute at a speed between 126 and 135 knots over ground, descending through 200 feet MSL about 1nm short of the touch down zone and 0.6nm short of the sea wall."

[TWT]

Reuters quoting several sources saying it ditched on approach to 09

All passengers safe as Lion Air plane lands in water in Bali | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/13/us-indonesia-plane-idUSBRE93C03J20130413)

[Braviator]

Ahh can confirm 09 was in use. My bad! Still don't understand how it can happen.

[djanello]

A dutch news site mentions that the Captain announced an emergency landing shortly before the incident.

[Tu.114]

Does anybody have access to approach charts for WADD? What approaches are on offer there and what minima?

[Goat Whisperer]

I'm not smart enough to copy the chart but 09 has a VOR/DME only, 470' MDA, 091 inbound (QDM 087). Entirely overwater.

[wooski]

best to view it in firefox tis a bit buggy.
but does seem to show it stopping short of the runway
LNI904 live flight tracking - Plane Finder (http://planefinder.net/flight/LNI904/time/2013-04-13T07:10:00%20UTC)

[Boomerang]

Hopefully ICAO will someday establish a global safety rating system for airlines.

Similar to your cars safety star rating. Punters will be able to consider something more important than just the lowest fares. If an airline is already banned from the EU then it gives a little heads up already.

(And maybe a little less idle chatter on guard on approach to DPS now?)

[pilotin777]

In order to keep the structure kind of intact....would it be necessary to retract the landing gear prior to impact ?????

[dmussen]

Can anyone come up with a reason as to why the aicrraft is pointing to seaward? Must be 09. Don't pilots know when they have F#*ked up and simply go around.

Per Ardua ad Everything
D.

[Goat Whisperer]

...because it pivoted around its (damaged) right winglet?

[1stspotter]

Video of crash site
Lion Air plane crash - Bali April - 2013 - YouTube

[1a sound asleep]

How they get Leasing and/or finance plus somebody to insure them is beyond me. And as for the regulator - would love to know they keep operating

[Skeleton]

BBC Footage:

BBC News - All survive after jet lands in sea off Bali Indonesia (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22134380)

[captplaystation]

I have a colleague who couldn't clear the runway after landing in a B738 recently, as the thrust levers just stopped responding.

Still haven't heard the conclusion of the story & no info whatsoever from the company yet.

This seems like just another Lion Air screw up, but I guess we "should" give them the benefit of the doubt just in case :rolleyes:

[CleverK1]

Let's say they landed short. At this altitude they would have flown with gear down. How successfull would a water landing be with a landing gear in down position??? So I don't think they landed short with a 100% functioning airplane.

Rumors are out that they have declared an emergency shortly before the accident. On AvHerald they mentioned the similarity from the TK accident in AMS as well. Not so sure about that one.

I think there is a lot of information missing up to now.

@P2Fly: I always thought that even they offer P2Fly - everybody still has to show its flying skills in a simulator in front of a Lyon Captain. Only if this sim assesment is passed...then a pilot can transfer the money... Anybody has some insight in this?

Last but not least....glad that everybody is alive .

[Trim Stab]

Hopefully ICAO will someday establish a global safety rating system for airlines.

Similar to your cars safety star rating. Punters will be able to consider something more important than just the lowest fares. If an airline is already banned from the EU then it gives a little heads up already.

Agreed - and it would be good to have info on minimum hours requirements for Captain and FO, and whether the airline operates P2F and P2Upgrade...

The FAA have acted with regulation in the US after Colgan. Maybe time for other regulators to follow suit.

[boerdet]

Is stall a possibility shortly before the runway as was the Turkish Airlines a few years ago at Schiphols 18R?

[Wizofoz]

I actually wrote a post speculating (and, I emphasize, SPECULATING) just that, but decided it was premature.

[sidestick driver]

GPWS was last heard saying" don't sink, don't sink"!

[Flying Cheddar]

Does anybody have access to approach charts for WADD? What approaches are on offer there and what minima? WADD (http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/143/wadd.png)

Is stall a possibility shortly before the runway as was the Turkish Airlines a few years ago at Schiphols 18R?

My thoughts exactly... Many 738s had that RA issue.

Is 7 crew normal on Lion 737s?

[F14]

VORDME Runway 09. 2.8deg VNAV path. Avherald plot shows time against Flight level. This indicates normal approach, then after mins (479'alt) descended into the undershoot. Reminding me of the A330 accident in Tripoli, however maybe somebody could tell me the position of the sun at 0710z (I think it would be behind). Also if the PAPI/VASI was working?

Thankfully nobody was killed (except hopefully P2F) and the authorities will outlaw this threat to safety.:ok:

[Toruk Macto]

Some talk of emergency declared and pilot not happy about maintenance before departure .

[JB007]

Pleased to see all are safe, but I'd like to see some serious questions about this pay to fly airline now raised and this element of the industry in general...

GAPAN/Industry Press/BALPA...whoever...but someone please start the ball rolling on this...golden opportunity to highlight...

[PEI_3721]

“VOR/DME Runway 09. 2.8deg VNAV path.”
VNAV – Pressure altimeter setting?
Reported difference from standard approx 170ft …=… approx 0.6nm ???

[cldrvr]

Glad to see all are safe, surely won't be long till one of these wunderkinds plunks an orange or purple one in the English countryside.

We stopped using FR and eJ for ferrying crews/personel as soon as they both started to put 18 year old kids in the right seat. All of the employees of our principals businesses are not allowed to fly eJ and FR at any time.

Both eJ and FR have a great model for shareholders, I just wouldn't trust them as a passenger, and the great ride for the investors will come to an abrupt halt when one of these kids with daddies money feggs it up.

[usanthony]

The FO is Indian ?:confused:

[HotDog]

I would still like to know where is the horizontal stabiliser which is missing

It's under the water mate! Did you notice the aft fuselage broke and the back of it sank under the water?

[dmussen]

Turok,

Rumours shall abound. However if Cappie wasn't happy with aircraft why did he not remain on terra ferma, have a cuppa and wait until he was happy?
D.

[Airclues]

One of the passengers stated that "the aircraft was in landing position, when it suddenly got closer to the sea and finally hit the water".

Might this imply that it landed short rather than overran?

[Eastern_Skyjets]

Lion's entire 737 fleet have been grounded

[SOPS]

Eastern, are you sure of that?

[Eastern_Skyjets]

source is an Aussie Lion pilot who works for them

[cldrvr]

Lion's entire 737 fleet have been grounded


Glad to hear. They should make an example out of these guys to put an end to this horrid and dangerous P2F rubbish that is taking over the world. Take their AOC away and put them out of business.

On to the next one, time to take all these P2F training airlines, including the ones in Europe out of business once and for all and follow the lead set by the FAA.

Why are we in Europe so slow in strengthening the rules here, does it take the death of a few hundred pax and a few innocent people on the ground to finally act?

Kids with only a few hours on type and 6 landings under their belt have no place in the pointy end of any aircraft anywhere.

[Centaurus]

Kids with only a few hours on type and 6 landings under their belt have no place in the pointy end of any aircraft anywhere.



Maybe the captain was PF?

[Bumps]

Glad to see all are safe, surely won't be long till one of these wunderkinds plunks an orange or purple one in the English countryside.

We stopped using FR and eJ for ferrying crews/personel as soon as they both started to put 18 year old kids in the right seat. All of the employees of our principals businesses are not allowed to fly eJ and FR at any time.

Both eJ and FR have a great model for shareholders, I just wouldn't trust them as a passenger, and the great ride for the investors will come to an abrupt halt when one of these kids with daddies money feggs it up.

You should probably advise your company to stop flying British Airways then as well, as they've been putting 200hr guys in the RHS for decades. Having 200-hour guys is not a problem as long as they are trained and tested accordingly. Both FR and EZY have stellar safety records, a lot better than many legacy carriers considering how many flights they operate.

Lion on the other hand, and other Indonesian/Indian carriers in general, I understand the widespread concerns about. But that's completely different to the operations FR and EZY conduct so your point is invalid.

[CleverK1]

A lot of people are bashing P2F now. I'm for sure against it as well. But we don't even know if that was the cause here. Everybody is alive...they might have shown some exceptional pilot skills...
There is a lot wrong with P2F....but low time pilots are employed in other areas as well. And without major problems.
Probably we should look into the whole indonesian aviation business, authorities etc.

[Eastern_Skyjets]

if this was Delta the crew would be hailed as hero's, the name Lion just makes you loose before you have even started playing :8

[Dan Winterland]

Exactly. Chesney Sullenburger is recognised as a hero for ditching an aircraft in an incident where everyone survived - just as did this Lion Air crew did. Lets hear the facts before casting judgement.

[ROSCO328]

Cldrvr,

You make yourself sound like a bitter little man with some of your comments. As a skipper with EJ I fly regularly with some of these so called " kids " and without getting into a tit for tat I would say you have no clue what you are talking about BUT you are entitled to your opinion. Going on a complete guess I would say Ej's safety record is without question one of the best in the business.

[cldrvr]

stop flying British Airways then as well, as they've been putting 200hr guys
in the RHS for decades


If BA ever decides to recruit 200 hour guys based on the size of their wallet and not their experience we will surely do so. We now have a few thousand employees who no longer fly eJ and FR, does it make a difference, probably not, but as soon as more employers/business wake up to the fact of how these P2F airlines operate and start talking with their feet it may some day make aviation a safer place then it is now.

[Metro man]

"If you think safety is expensive, try having an accident"

I wonder if this will affect the EU blacklist on Indonesian airlines, with Garuda having only just been taken off.

Report here about drug taking involving Lion Air pilots.

Airlines Banned in EU: Who Is Checking If Your Airline is Safe? : Condé Nast Traveler (http://www.cntraveler.com/daily-traveler/2012/04/who-is-checking-if-your-airline-is-safe-europe-airline-blacklist-041012)

[Eastern_Skyjets]

Ryan and Easy are not P2F airlines
Lion on the other hand is, if you have the money and can pass the assesment your in! regardless of experince

[cldrvr]

Going on a complete guess I would say Ej's safety record is without question
one of the best in the business.


Only a matter of time, the discussion was held in the US after a spate of mishaps with low houred guys who were underpaid, overworked and underqualified. They changed the landscape there, only a matter of time until we do the same here.

I have been in aviation for 40 years and have experienced this low hour phenomena directly and must say that nothing good will ever come of it. Of the FO's we hired last year, the lowest time one had 4,000 hours and could hit the ground running, unlike these 200 hour kids with a fat wallet.

The way eJ and FR operate it is only a matter of time until something happens to the experienced LHS guy and the fate of the 150 pax is in the hand of an inexperienced FO with a few hours.

If you are happy to put yourself in that situation, go right ahead, I won't. A professional pilot's job is all about limiting risk, not increasing it by adding a 160 kid with no experience in the RHS.

[cldrvr]

Ryan and Easy are not P2F airlines


Go knock on their door with no experience and 250k and see how quickly they will welcome you with open arms.

This debate has been fought for a long time here in PPRuNE and it won't get solved today, there are too many who have a direct benefit of this P2F scheme.

I am not going to be the one who will make the difference, I am just a single voice out of many and as soon as our view gains a bit more traction we will make a difference.

Once that happens all of our T&C's will improve and we will start enjoying our career again.

If my principal will ever contemplate a similar scheme, I am not going to willingly participate in increasing my risk and eroding my T&C's like so many eJ and FR senior crew have done over the years, I will walk.

[Eastern_Skyjets]

ok well I was not aware they were P2F airlines and I am only going on a basic knowledge so if that is true I appologies

[Bumps]

If BA ever decides to recruit 200 hour guys based on the size of their wallet and not their experience we will surely do so. We now have a few thousand employees who no longer fly eJ and FR, does it make a difference, probably not, but as soon as more employers/business wake up to the fact of how these P2F airlines operate and start talking with their feet it may some day make aviation a safer place then it is now.


Oh, but they already do. You see, if I don't have £84k to pay for their cadet programme, I'm not BA material. How's that not based on the size of ones wallet. Granted, they do pay you back (£12k/year, so not too fast either), but the £30k you'd have to spend on an FR TR probably pays for itself over the same time period anyway. And the £82k for BA is actually more than what the Ezy/CTC programme costs.

Oh, and you better add FlyBe/Jet2/Monarch/Thomson/Lufthansa/Emirates... Actually, I think it'd be easier if you just took the train instead.

[root]

Not sure where this comparison to the Hudson incident is coming from. Those guys put an aircraft in the water safely with loss of all engines.

Far as we can see this seemed to be a fully functional aircraft until it ran off the runway. Combined with the historical record of Lionair smashing their aircraft into the green beyond DER it's an entirely different scenario.

[Compylot]

Folks, I think that you are missing the serious ramifications and knock on effect that this incident has caused.

Thank god no one was seriously hurt or killed.

Please spare a thought now though for the thousands of bogans stranded at the airport waiting for their delayed flights back to Western Australia.

I have it on good authority that many mine sites in WA are implementing their contingency plans as we speak as they are not sure how they are going to staff their sites Monday morning if the backlog is not cleared in the next few hours...

[root]

If BA ever decides to recruit 200 hour guys based on the size of their wallet and not their experience we will surely do so. We now have a few thousand employees who no longer fly eJ and FR, does it make a difference, probably not, but as soon as more employers/business wake up to the fact of how these P2F airlines operate and start talking with their feet it may some day make aviation a safer place then it is now.

You understand aviation already is the safest mode of transport on the planet, right?

[P40Warhawk]

I have to agree with you that experience is important and that this P2F is absolutely disgraceful .

But doing it like in the US with requirements of 1500 hours before you can apply for an airline job makes nothing sense.

Where should you ever get so much experience then? In GA? That is almost impossible. That takes maybe 5 to 10 years. Depending on what kind of GA operation you work in. And what is the relevance of flying whole the time SE?

So with that statement of yours I do not agree. But that there must be done about the quality of Ab Initio Pilots. I say, I have to agree. But we can not say anything before the final report is coming out about this Accident.

[Raider1]

The Sydney Morning Herald report has lot more detail. Paticularly the report that the aircraft ditched short of landing after the pilot reported engine trouble.
Well done to the cabin crew who seemed to have excelled with the evacuation.

Passenger plane crashes into sea (http://www.smh.com.au/world/passenger-plane-crashes-into-sea-20130413-2hsd5.html)

[CleverK1]

I have flown with a lot of pilots over the years. Everybody talking about an hour minimum here:
If every airline is only hiring pilots with (let's say) at least 2000 hours:
How wil any flight student ever get to these 2000 hours.
Flight instruction? Not an option for the masses

It's not all about hours. I have seen 2000 hour pilot with skills weaker than a 200 hour pilot. It's all about quality flight training snd what you do within these hours.
If you just set up an hour minimum...'m sure that there are places in the Philipines & Co that paint you hours into your logbook.

[F14]

So either ran out of fuel, or multiple bird strike... was it the first approach? what is the fuel policy/alternate?

What was the maintenance action/status before flight. Plenty to discuss. But still good to see P2F is getting the exposure it needs to be defeated.

[P40Warhawk]

I do not agree with what you are saying.
You are talking about hiring pilots whereby the once with lowest experience had like 4000 hours. How did he get those hours?
Exactly. By starting somewhere to make those hours.
You have to start with something. Also that person with 4000 hours had once 200 hours.

[Eastern_Skyjets]

the report in the Sydney hearld suggest's they have suffered an engine failure, and as a result have tried to glide the aircraft in on no power hence falling short of the the runway.

this could explain the mayday call some time before the incident....:rolleyes:

[1stspotter]

an interesting posting by Gerry Soejatman at his blog. He is a very well informed aviation consultant in Indonesia.

His blog shows a photo of the weather at the airport. Dark clouds. No ILS not approach lights on runway 09, just PAPI.

http://gerryairways.********.nl/2013/04/lion-air-737-800-undershoots-and-ends.html

Here a photo taken from aircraft on final for 09. Runway and Lion Air B737 in the sea clearly visible.
http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/bb221/ArvinTunas/BHuwOoTCUAISNFcjpglarge_zps2d76e83a.jpg
and a closer look. Luckily the aircraft did not hit the stone barrier
BHuuIF1CIAARBoAjpglarge_zps89e7e7a1.jpg Photo by yudra1 | Photobucket (http://s1180.photobucket.com/user/yudra1/media/BHuuIF1CIAARBoAjpglarge_zps89e7e7a1.jpg.html)

[SOPS]

I was going to suggest before that there did not seem to be any sign of fuel floating on the water, but I hesitated..........

[F14]

Morning herald reports from eye witnesses onboard & another surfing. a) heavy rain on approach b) engine ripped off c) not much fuel in the water, pilot must have dumped it.

[NordicMan]

Sure P40Warhawk , but I don't think a complex Jet with 180 pax is the place to start building experience.

[Eastern_Skyjets]

737 does not have parameters to dump fuel

[cessnapete]

Its the training not the flying hours that make a safe operation.
BA have been putting 200 hour co-pilots onto Airbus/B737/B757 for years, with no problems.
The RAF have widebody jet Capts. with less than 2000 hours total flying.

[flash8]

Although I regularly read Prrune, almost without exception why let facts get in the way of a good story? It's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff sometimes with 20K TT heavy skippers competing with armchair MS FS kids (of all ages).

As far as I can see the crew had an incident with no loss of life. Whether they are responsible or not is another matter. At the moment I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as will most rational people.

As for P2F, the Kos incident report from a few years back really needs to be read by more people. To me it opened up a window into the whole dirty business.

[F14]

I think the point is not that the 737 does not have fuel dump, but the surfer reported what he saw, felt and smelt. He was not an aviation man.

This however would indicate, nothing left in the tanks. or tanks sealed, fire warning switches pulled to the engine/engines detached. Otherwise expect fuel leaking everywhere

[Eastern_Skyjets]

remember Adam air? they had a few accidents and then lost another Hull and they were finished, could the same happen to Lion given the amount of aircraft they have and have on order????

[sevenstrokeroll]

watching Fox news here in the USA...THEY said it was an over run.

who really knows?

but 737 next gens seem to over run a bit often...like chicago midway...difficulty getting into reverse.

as to landing in the water with gear down (as in undershoot), a DC8 did this so well at KSFO in the 1970's (or 69) that the plane was taken out , fixed up and used for another twenty years.

generally speaking, an over run is pilot error

and undershoot? out of gas? we shall see.


IF you land on a critical length runway, use max stopping effort until you are at taxi speed...no take it easy for the passengers.

[CleverK1]

@Flash8: Can you please post a link to the Kos report? I never read it.

[TRF4EVR]

Ahahah. I'm so glad you get to have the "experience vs. training" non-discussion in the rest of the world, too. You ever notice how it's always the low time guys who somehow cast the discussion in those terms? Listen, junior, no one is saying that training is not important or necessary. It's every bit as important and necessary as experience, which is every bit as important as not being a fool in the first place.

Now, personally, I think anyone who pays hundreds of thousands of dollars (or equivalent coinage) to get in to this industry is almost certainly a fool, but that's neither here nor threre...

[Torque Tonight]

Kids with only a few hours on type and 6 landings under their belt have no place in the pointy end of any aircraft anywhere.

How does any pilot ever become experienced on type then?

As usual there are many potentially valid issues to come from this accident but they are lost in tidal waves of drivel.

'cldrvr' you are entitled to your opinion but I don't think it is valid. The facts regarding EZY and RYR do not support your allegations and engineering standards in RYR are first class. Training standards are widely held to be very good and the airline does not operate on a P2F basis. Stick to the matter in hand please.

Lionair, though, is P2F in it's purest form, is blacklisted by the EU and has a habit of bending aeroplanes. Maybe they just have a lot of bad luck. :rolleyes:However, as yet we have no idea whether technical or other issues were a factor and any pontificating is baseless speculation at the moment.

[Sir George Cayley]

Can we have one thread about the Lion Air incident and another about Catch 22 low timers and P2F please?

SGC

[Grenville Fortescue]

How incredibly lucky that no lives were lost.

We hear and see so much tragedy these days, its welcome to see something where this isn't the case.

[Walnut]

I note this 737/800? broke apart at a point somewhere between the wing trailing edge & the horizontal stabilizer. There have been a number of incidents in the last few years,to B787, ie the Turkish at AMS where a similar break has occured. It is very useful for PAX to escape through these gaps but I do wonder if Boeing a/c are making a flimsy a/c?

[Hotel Tango]

When a plane crash position is after the end of the rwy, it seems obvious that is an overshoot and not undershoot...

Another expert in our midst. Just unbelievable isn't it :ugh:

[The Bartender]

When a plane crash position is after the end of the rwy, it seems obvious that is an overshoot and not undershoot...

Are you sure it didn't crash before the beginning of the runway? :ugh:

[toffeez]

It's a reflex now: if it's ****e it must be a 787 dreadliner.

[White Knight]

Sounds like cr@p pilots at a cr@p airline:confused::yuk::rolleyes:

[1stspotter]

Several Indonesian newssites report the first officer on this flight was Dutch citizen. That is likely as quite a few pilots from the Netherlands are flying with Lion Air. Most of them got their training at Stella Aviation. This company has contracts with Lion Air.

See http://www.gatra.com/nusantara-1/bali-nusa-tenggara/28168-lion-air-jatuh-sebelum-sentuh-runway-bandara-ngurahrai.html


Also see LinkedIn for quite a few Dutch names.

[Greenlights]

i was talking in general not about Lionair's case.
as i said, the crew will explain it.

[FIRESYSOK]

Why is *anyone* here quoting news outlets??? FoxNews, Syndney Morning Herald, etc..

'An engine failed, thus a glide to the runway; all explained by a mayday call'

'Overshat, undershat, over-run, or Shat-under-runs'

There are obviously more than a few clowns in their mothers' basements here.

Funny, this used to be the Pprune.

[DIBO]

When a plane crash position is after the end of the rwy, it seems obvious that is an overshoot and not undershoot...
absolutely right, but nothing to do with this case as it ended up BEFORE the rwy in use.
Stella Aviationaren't these the guys promoting MPL's a lot ?? Not that it is of any relevance to this case (for the moment)

Must say, this skipper moored his ship pretty nice alongside the embankment. At least in the last seconds he didn't run out of luck....that stone barrier doesn't seem to be very forgiving

[JackRalston]

Sky News in UK reporting the plane 'skid' into the sea and overshot the runway....once again Sky News proving they know nothing about everything.

[subsonicsubic]

Looking at the maps and the published photographs, it would appear the AC is at rest to the LHS of the foot of 09 or in other words to the North of the foot of 09.

If we are to believe it was an undershoot, surely the undershoot would still occur on centreline...

[KBPsen]

I note this 737/800? broke apart at a point somewhere between the wing trailing edge & the horizontal stabilizer. It is very useful for PAX to escape through these gaps but I do wonder if Boeing a/c are making a flimsy a/c?

I doubt anyone could escape through those "gaps". I also think it is preferable for the fuselage to be "flimsy" enough to absorb the energy of the impact and still stay relatively intact rather than transfer it all to the occupants.

For those wondering were the stab is only the RH half is missing as can be seen in image #2.


http://i49.tinypic.com/34or49l.jpg

http://i50.tinypic.com/2m2jp76.jpg

http://i50.tinypic.com/2n8n67o.jpg

[E_S_P]

You can see the AC still bobbing about on one of the videos so this would account for it not being on the CL due to the action of the wind/waves.

[Hotel Tango]

Sounds like cr@p pilots at a cr@p airline

Based on what factual evidence White Knight?

[CokeZero]

if they were 100ft below the glide slope and on a stable 700ft descent and crashed short of the run-way did they have a false capture of a ghost glide slope?

the automation let them fly into the sea without input from the pilots?

any ideas?

[737Jock]

I'm amazed where all you guys got your experience... Guess you were Born with superior airmanship.

Bashing p2f is good if you bash it for the right reasons. Little experience is not a problem! Little skill is the issue which becomes a problem if this barrier can be removed with cash.

We don't know anything about this accident, the first officer might not even be P2F. Just wait for the accident report!

[A Very Civil Pilot]

Landing Gear position...
In order to keep the structure kind of intact....would it be necessary to retract the landing gear prior to impact ?????

The gear is designed to adsorb much of the impact force, rather than have the force transferred to the people on board.

The same with the break in the fuselage. Although not a designed 'breakaway' point, in breaking it will reduce the energy transferred to the passengers and crew.

[fantom]

BBC World News interviewer just asked an 'expert' if the A/c was 'flying by wire'.

You just couldn't make it up.

[Greenlights]

the last picture is nice.
If you use the slide (in the tail section) you go back in the plane right ? :}

[Greenlights]

P2F or not is not the subject of this accident in particular (maybe).
But IMO, we should talk here or elsewhere, because it's an opportunity (thanks to this accident) to bring up this problem in the same time.
In normal circumstances, nobody cares, even reporters...
Personnally, I just hope that some reporters read PPrune or comments on articles online, and ask themselves "what is P2F ?" ( pilots who pay to fly if any read).
So it is an occasion for us to talk about it when the "ennemy" becomes weaker.
Many of us complain about it, but nobody does action. So at least let's bring up this fact.

[Greaserman]

Sorry for giving out my thoughts before we know the real reason but:
If you follow the approach track of Lionair on AvHerald you will see it will lead you straight towards the VOR "BLI". And the descend rate on the transponder altitude reading shows a constant descend. I might think it could have been a VOR approach in VNAV with wrong QNH or.... :sad:

[JW411]

Dear God. This is pprune at its very worst. This is supposed to be professional pilots forum and yet again it seems that every idiot who knows absoulutely nothing about aviation is allowed to post. The lunatics truly are running the asylum.

As a genuine retired professional pilot, I will answer one query.

I have met two aviators who were forced to put a four-engined aeroplane into the water on finals. On both occasions the undercarriage was down and the flaps were deployed.

On neither occasion was anyone hurt.

[TeaTowel]

I just hope that some reporters read PPRuNe or comments on articles online, and ask themselves "what is P2F ?" ( pilots who pay to fly if any read).

Unfortunately it will just give some rich student journalist an idea on how to get a job.

P2W (Pay to write)

Diseases spread. No profession is safe....

[jackharr]

JW422: "I have met two aviators who were forced to put a four-engined aeroplane into the water on finals. On both occasions the undercarriage was down and the flaps were deployed.And the aircraft was recovered and flew again. But I think JH lost his best blue hat that had just cost him four quid:sad:

[lomapaseo]

Gear up or down is a pilot decision based on aircraft under some control and time to think and act.

Aircraft are design and certified not to crash, what happens if they do, is varriable as heck. Choose you seat carefully based on gut feeling and old wifs tale.

[FIRESYSOK]

Reminds me of the Turkish Airlines accident, with more forgiving circumstances. I'm surprised no-one has brought this up. Perhaps it was just a plain-Jane undershat

[fantom]

Earlier, I referred to an 'expert'.

It transpires he is, indeed, an expert and I have apologised (I didn't know him).

[broadreach]

It will be very interesting reading or hearing what went through the flight deck crews' minds during the final sequence of events. If in fact engine failure did occur, the aircraft would still glide but would very likely hit those unforgiving tetrapods that form the seawall. A conscious decision to ditch, and ditch quickly, seems possible and, IF that does turn out to be the case, it is a decision which will have saved everyone's lives. But I don't suppose those who instantly branded the crew as "crap" will be back to apologise.

[McBruce]

Loss of thrust. Ditching. Slightly higher angle at splashdown than the optimum, rear part of fuselage takes a bit of the force.

If true wonderful effort by the crew. Same ranks as Hudson, BA 777 and RYR at CIA.

Seeing a perfectly good runway ahead and realising you won't make it....

Experience would've been a big factor in this outcome.

[1stspotter]

Someone on this thread suggested Lion Air 737 was grounded. that is not the case.
Lion Air operating as usual despite accident | The Jakarta Post (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/04/13/lion-air-operating-usual-despite-accident.html)

[JPJP]

if they were 100ft below the glide slope and on a stable 700ft descent and crashed short of the run-way did they have a false capture of a ghost glide slope?

There is no ILS to that runway, therefore no "glide slope". It's a VOR approach that would have been flown in IAN or LNAV/VNAV with a VOR frequency selected in the Nav panels.

[pattern_is_full]

Witness after witness (passengers and ground-based) report the plane "dropped" into the water BEFORE reaching the runway. I.E. - NOT an overrun.

One eyewitness perhaps can be discounted as unreliable or suspect - but when there are multiple witnesses reporting the same thing, it starts to carry a lot of weight. Certainly more weight than the imaginings of a non-witness at a keyboard 1,000s of miles away.

Rumored MAYDAY tends to indicate a loss of thrust without sufficient altitude/energy to make the runway. Think BA38, minus the smooth grass threshold. For doubly good reasons, the captain (along with everyone else) survived, and will be able to tell his tale.

As to WHY there may have been a loss of thrust - bird strike, fuel exhaustion, fuel starvation, internal mx problem, TBD. Likely not fuel ice in the filters, in the tropics in April (but you never know until you check!)

Direction the airplane is pointing after the crash is certainly relevant - but not necessarily a perfect indicator of direction of flight. (and in the pictures, is not aligned with EITHER runway 27 or 09).

If the Hudson had been 6 feet deep and full of coral knobs, Sully might well have ended up pointing back the direction he came, also.

Lion Air's reputation? Maybe a factor, maybe not. "Even a paranoid can have real enemies" - and even a "bad" airline (or a "bad" pilot) can have an accident that isn't its/his/her fault.

[Starbear]

I would guess (small bet) that the main fracture behind the wing is in fact, at one of the "Production Breaks". I.e. one of those points where the various sections of the fuselage (which are now often manufactured in different countries) are "bolted" together during final assembly at (Renton? Showing my age!) or wherever.

Depending upon the aeroplane type or model, there will usually be a production break just aft of cockpit about L1/R1 doors area, one forward and one aft of wing (i.e. centre wingbox) and usually another just near aft doors. These breaks or junctions are default "weak" points and so most likely fracture points in accidents.

The severe tear/crack/ rupture striking through the number 3 of B737 aft of main break is probably just that. A tear or rupture.

Just my two pence worth. (Can't comment on these new fangled composite material hulls!)

SB

[Sintry]

As a commercial pilot I have, by the shortsightedness of others been forced to post this:

1: some posted: lion air is the cause of half the worlds 737 crashes. Factually not true and I am surprised no one has countered this. Look up Wikipedia or any other site on the history of 737 crashes, and you'll find that Lion air has crashed 2 737. One 737-400 and one today. No counting tail strikes as crashes. Because we are also not counting the gear collapses for example of other airlines. Crashes are crashes and not incidents. If you wanna count those start a new form.

2: the whole talk about pilots not being qualified... Less than 200 hours. Well I am equally stupefied that no one realizes that Most major airlines have their own flight school, and actually hire cadets straight into their airline after flight school with 0 ours. Your more likely to find a cadet at a major than at a private company. So your trying to tell me that all major airlines are at huuuuuuge risks cause they hire graduates from their own flight school???.??

3: Yes there is a pay to fly scheme at Lion Air. But equally at Ryan Air where pilot have to pay for they're own uniforms, food etc. Air Maroc (the national airline of morocco) is equally involved in these schemes, baltic air and many other airlines. Are they causing half the worlds 737 crashes cause of that? No.......

So what's the issue here? Too many people talking about something they know too little about. This situation is complicated, and many factors together have led to this accident as with every other In aviation.

Weather or not pay to fly is right is not e issue here. These pilots all hold a (European Commercial Pilot license) for the most as they are european expats, they have all passed a type rating in Europe, and fulfilled the Lion Air simulator examination and ground school as well. Last year, 32 cadets who passed the European type rating, failed the lion air sim check and where sent home. (This is factual)

It is the easy way out to blame a scheme on this. If the pilots made mistakes, the investigation will say so. But I don't believe you are a lessor pilot cause you found a way in!

When a plane crashed into the Hudson cause of birds, they were heroes cause everyone survived. When a plane crashed short of the runway cause of wind-shear (the airplane did not overrun, the fell short of) and everyone survived, the pilots aren't heroes? How biased can you be?

Keep an open mind an opinion till the investigation shows!

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Now I understand why Lionair has this great Airbus command
At the pace they break their planes .. they need a large number in store

[tbaylx]

Boeing should just permanently base an incident response team in Jakarta...would save them a fortune in airfare.

Whatever the cause may be LionAir and other select Indonesian carriers don't exactly have the best history with regards to operations, so I can certainly understand initial reactions. My first thought was...huh, big surprise, another unstabilized approach leading to a hull loss.

Time will tell if that's the case here or not.

[172_driver]

From another forum (so second, third hand information):

"A friend I have working for Lionair just sent me this, from the indonesian media, words from a pilot at holding point RW09:

Were were taxing to depart, we´ve just seen the tail hit the water, within a minute we were surrounded by fire trucks. There was a big TS at the end of the runway. Wind shear for sure, we could see everybody going around...."

[pattern_is_full]

...is certainly not to be ruled out (yet), although the METAR posted earlier showed "NOSIG."

The event as reported so far (including rain columns visible in the background of the picture) is consistent with wind shear, but also consistent with other possibilities.

One way or the other, this one will likely be solved fairly rapidly, unless it turns out to be an obscure mechanical problem that takes digging.

[PJ2]

Is this the normal "parked" position of the windshield wipers on a B738?

Took a look at several photos of 737-800s.

The windshield wipers are not in the stowed position. So they were in operation during the approach and were in this position when electrical power was lost, likely at impact with the sea surface.

Because wipers are never operated on a dry windshield, (everyone who flies knows this) and because these guys fly in this environment all the time and likely use the wipers frequently for tropical showers etc., their use indicates that there was rain on final approach.

The recorders will tell us when they started and what comments were made. We could posit an entirely-routine approach to a familiar airport in rain showers which went wrong very quickly.

http://www.smugmug.com/photos/i-hFr676g/0/L/i-hFr676g-L.png

PJ2

[Airclues]

Sky News is still reporting that the aircraft touched down and then ran off the end of the runway. Try to keep up Sky!

[FLEXPWR]

Don't know much about Bali, but as far as WX reports are concerned, they may not tell the whole picture. Try China, Philippines for METAR or ATIS, sometimes they don't even mention rain at the airfield, wet runway, etc... so a shower has passed, nobody on approach has been notified, and on short final or close to flare you realize the runway's wet... would have LOOOVED to know that beforehand.

@P40warhawk: 2000h SE useless? same as 200h cadet? I beg to differ. Getting the hang of aircraft handling, regardless of aircraft type, does not come with 200h, no matter how good you are. And if I ever had to hire a 200h pilot or a 2000h pilot, ESPECIALLY if the 2000h were performed single pilot on light aircraft, I would not hesitate one second.

@cessnapete: if the training brings safety and not the flying hours, like ou claim, then all cadets should be captains right away, right? Airlines would save a hole bunch of money and safety would be exactly the same. Good luck, the day it happens, I'll go by boat or train.

Flex

[TSR2]

Sky News is still reporting that the aircraft touched down and then ran off the end of the runway

Yes, Sky News on-line are still reporting this as a runway excursion but Sky News TV has been reporting since late afternoon that the aircraft came to grief 'whilst landing'.

[PJ2]

Re Sky News, that just illustrates that it is more important to be first than it is to be accurate. That applies everywhere - Sky News is not unusual - the U.S. is notorious for riding off in all directions before someone else does and Canada's three newspapers are not a lot better.

Actually, it's turning into a good thing because people wanting to know about events just do their own research by visiting numerous sites to make up their own minds, and ignore the standard wire-news sources because they know such sources no longer put a premium on good journalism.

[sevenstrokeroll]

how did I know the plane was a 737-800? The images from FOX tv this morning showed the side of the plane it Boeing 737-800 was painted on the side. Later, with better views, I agreed.

But i didn't see the position of the thrust reversers...anyone have a good picture ( my computer is very old and doesn't show them)? Were the reversers deployed?

AS to METARS and the like...wx can change rapidly and might not be included.

Windshear might lead a pilot to carry more speed and then over run the runway...does anyone have the total length of the runway in question?

While there is still reasonable question as to undershoot or overshoot...any markings of the plane touching down on the runway? did it land long?

airplanes of this type are built in three main pieces, the front where pilots are, the main, and the rear...so breaking in pieces is sort of normal...and yes, some people can get out the split.

[mary meagher]

PJ2, I am so glad to see you on board this discussion. With more information we may be able to understand what happened. Clearly Boeing is going to be eager to show there is no fault with their airplane that caused it to undershoot; bad enough that the dreamliner is still grounded with hot battery problems.

I am looking forward to the recovery of the recorders.

[despegue]

Flaps seem to be in the 30 or 40 position, not something I would expect for a glide-in approach.
Radar readings according to avherald have a constant v/s with a roughly constand groundspeed but 100 ' low on profile. Again not consistent with a dual failure on approach.

[1a sound asleep]

If radar data confirmed the aircraft was fairly consistently about 100 feet below a 3 degrees glide path then it sounds more like pilot error than a sudden wind shear event. Or in experience in dealing with recovery from such event.

[Airclues]

sevenstrokeroll

No, there are no markings on the runway because it didn't get anywhere near the runway. It crashed into the sea some way short of runway 09. There are several internet sites where you can watch the approach, but I won't post the links as this isn't the spotters forum.

Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea (http://avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0)

[Admiral346]

Thankfully nobody was killed (except hopefully P2F)

You are as distasteful as it gets.

Maybe you don't like this kind of operation, and I sure don't, but to wish death in an accident on a colleague who sees no other way to keep his liscence in a world of greed and profit margin uber alles is the lowest , most aweful talk I have heard in along time.
Be ashamed and get the f@ck out of here...

Sincereley,
Nic

[1stspotter]

Indonesian authorities reported the aircraft just had 146 hours / 48 minutes of flying when it crashed. Is this a record?

On board 4 foreigners: 2 Singapore, 1 French, 1 Belgium

Pilot from Indonesia, co-pilot from India.

[Midland63]

Admiral, I suspect he was referring to P2F as a concept rather than a particular person.

[oceancrosser]

Where is the METAR? No one has published the METARs for the last 18 hrs preceding the accident :ugh:

[Ye Olde Pilot]

As others have suggested it appears to have landed short of the runway.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/66987000/jpg/_66987893_017724055-2.jpg
http://avherald.com/img/lionair_b738_pk-lks_denpasar_130413_map.jpg
http://avherald.com/img/lionair_b738_pk-lks_denpasar_130413_map1.jpg

Interesting to see the position of the aircraft in relation to the runway.
The captain is reported to have 10,000 hours plus so let's wait to find out what really went wrong.

[hotnhigh]

What about the possibility of fuel contamination as well?

[drfaust]

I second that, YOP. Alot of speculation on here from armchair heroes. Something fishy is going on here, it seems to me exceedingly illogical that a brand new 737 with 150 hours on it plants itself in the ocean with the sole reason that they might have been using a P2F first officer or something similar.

It just does not make sense. Although it might have been a contributing factor, we have no idea about any mechanical or meteorological circumstances that might have contributed to this. As the crew reportedly had the capacity to make a mayday and a brace for impact call, something tells me that they were very aware of what was happening to them and where they were headed.

I am looking forward to some facts. Last but not least, the cabin crew seems to have done a good job evacuating everybody so at least a +1 for that.

faust

PS: I started out as a 148TT hero on a turboprop [Q400]. If you get trained well and fly with experienced skippers, that should not be a problem. Airlines with excellent safety records have been doing this for decades.

[Diamond Bob]

Reminds me of the Turkish Airlines accident, with more forgiving circumstances. I'm surprised no-one has brought this up.

I'm surprised too. First thing I thought of was the Amsterdam accident and the RADALT problem. A possibility here?

[repariit]

Aircraft are design and certified not to crash, what happens if they do, is varriable as heck. This is true to some extent, but it is worth noting that a significant portion of FAR Part 25 is devoted to requiring engineering attention to make them crash successfully. For example, in this instance:


The engines appear to have separated from the wing without destruction of the front spar, rear spar, and the upper and lower skins. The wing tanks were not broken open, and the airframe maintained some buoyancy.
The passenger seats were mounted to the tracks with sufficient strength to hold the occupants in place under crash G loads.
Likewise the galleys, and other heavy equipment items did not separate from their fittings and tumble over cabin occupants.
Slide/rafts appear to have deployed, and life vests were in use.

[7478ti]

Time yet for getting the real facts and data before drawing conclusions? lets give them the benefit of the doubt on this one for a while? Can we be sure this event didn't yet have a "Black Swan" component?

[Admiral346]

Oh, and you better add FlyBe/Jet2/Monarch/Thomson/Lufthansa/Emirates...

No, you don't.
Lufthansa will test you, and then you will have to sign a contract, making you liable to pay back for the training, once you get hired. You don't pay back, if you don't get hired within 5 years after completion of your training. There is MPL, but no P2F at all.
And with MPL, I was very doubtful. But now I get a lot of new FOs, with MPL liscences, and they do leave the Sim with more than 100h on type, undergo a linetraining of more than 100 sectors with checkpilots. All after a thorough training in LH flight academy.
They of course have no experience, but what on earth would change that? Time would.
Also working for a regional subsidary of LH, I have flown withlots of new FOs with a background of many hours of small aircraft flying (like Cessnas on minor routes to the Islands in the northern sea). Actually I found them performig worse in a jet then the cadets. They were expected to get the hang of a jet in minimum time, and just couldn't. And the experience of working in a highly productive environment was nil.

Nic

[Greenlights]

Admiral346, I don't totally agree.
Having experience and many hours (on any SE, ME), is not simply being better in handling a plane but it's about being better in decision making.
A cadet may handle well a jet but very weak in decision making if something suddenly goes wrong.
Flying a plane is just a small part of the job...

[413X3]

There have been a lot of incidents in America without any P2F schemes, so I personally don't see why anyone can just blame that. None of the Colgan Q400 people were P2F either, in fact both had thousands of hours tt. Which is strange since that accident led to total time minimum legislation, even though both pilots had far above the mins. It just seems like the easy way out to blame low time pilots instead of a just get on the ground culture, bad maintenance, impatient and authoritarian captains, fatigue and work hours, etc.

[llondel]

Indonesian authorities reported the aircraft just had 146 hours / 48 minutes of flying when it crashed. Is this a record?

I can't find a number, but I have vague recollection that the Gimli Glider had less hours than that (and the pilots had double-digit hours on type because it was one of the first 767s). However, it was flying again a couple of days later, so it might not count.

[pklucky888]

So, you want to fly Boeing 737's, your looking at “line training” either through CAE or EagleJet. You have read a little online about the schemes and the common gripes. Well here is a little extra information from someone who is currently on the P2F scheme.

Please, before I hear a huge list of complaints on PPRuNe about how paying to fly is worse then selling your soul to the devil; do you really think that people enjoy forking out thousands and thousands to pay to work- don’t be stupid. (Queue gripe about how we are stupid). There are four main groups that are really complaining about this. Firstly, those who have completed flight school, naive enough to think they would get a job with a ME CPL IR. Yes, there are the lucky few straight out of an integrated school who will, but on the whole, and in the current climate, I am sorry your dreams were smashed and your now unemployed with ten’s of thousands of debt and moaning about it online. Grow a pair and get another job while you sit it out. The second group are current pilots, who are worried that these “newbie P2F pilots” are firstly, only in the RHS because they have the money to be there and are not qualified for the job. Rightly so, but we still have to do the same exams and training as every other pilot in that seat. Sure, the experience of flying turbo props for years might not be there, and you might not know the difference between Cat F and G airspace but you won’t find a more enthusiastic or determined F/O. Complaining to us is not going to do anything- speak to your management or unions and refuse to fly with the P2F’s and see what they say. I agree that it is detrimental to flight safety to have a pilot up front who is the better off rather than the better skilled in theory. Your complaints are falling on deaf ears here. Secondly, the other group are current First Officer’s who’s jobs are being “taken” by these pilots, who are not only working for free, but paying the airline to fly for them; or having their terms and conditions eroded because of this. It is awful; I sympathise, but it is the same of any job market. Whether it be car manufacturing being outsourced to China for cheaper labour, the principle is the same; albeit outrageous that it is the case.

So now to Lion Air.

Currently the airline operates around 47 737’s, with 2 or 3 900ER’s being delivered every month in their “controlled expansion plan”. Just as a pointer as to what is to come, the USA FAA and Boeing are more than happy to let the Lion pilots come into the USA to pick up the new aircraft to take them to Indonesia, but Lion Air are never allowed to fly into the USA because the safety and attitude concerns of the Lion Crews, are rightly, blacklisted, and from Europe and America. Indeed, the only way the Lion delivery pilots are evern allowed to fly out of America, is that Boeing “employs” them as pilots working for them in a loop hole in the regulations.

So far this year, Lion Air have had more than 5 runway evacuations. The aircraft do not carry charts/ maps. There are “photo copies” of “photo copies” provided, however, often these are unreadable- would someone from Jeppesen please take note! Even when they are eligible, they are out of date. There are even a couple of instances of Lion Aircraft landing at the wrong airport, or turning up at the airport and landing on the wrong runway.

There is a complete disregard for flight time limitation; one instance of a pilot going more than 160 hours over. Another instance of an ex-pat pilot P2F pilot, when refusing to exceed his 110 hour per calendar month limit, being called more than 5 times by one of the deputy chief pilots (Sooleiman Makartot/ Rio Franky), and eventually being given the ultimatum of flying or being kicked off the “course”.

The regulations governing Indonesian aviation are CASA. I have toilet paper that means more to me than it does to the Lion management. By the way, if you do venture to Indonesia, you will need to carry loo roll with you a lot (along with Jep Charts)….that is if you can find a loo vs. a fly infested hole in the ground, surrounded by an inch of water that has trickled down someone’s backside. Great.

Scheduling is via SMS Text message and an online system called Geneva via their web based crew portal .The online rosta is about 10 percent accurate, it is always revised via SMS as the scheduling is done that night for the following day, so you are on constant standby and can never plan to do anything. I have received texts at 2am and 3am for a flight at 6am to Singapore. I refused, and then, I still would get a bang on the door from the irate driver telling you to hurry up. This happens once or twice a month to most of the expatriate crews that I have spoken too.

Currently there are about 80 expatriate pilots at Lion through CAE and Eagle; Lion plans to have more than 100+ by the end of 2010, as well as opening up their ageing 747-400 aircraft to the Eagle and CAE schemes, flying to their one and only destination, Jeddah. Accommodation is provided for CAE in Harmony Apartments, the Eagle pilots are told about the Harris hotel, and then are expected to find their own feet from there. Being told about the hotel is your indoctrination and introduction to the company and possible the only thing you will hear that makes sense from Ms. Meylda, the secretary to the Head of Flight Operations, “Captain” Filemon- whatever that title means!

Let me, at this point, point out that it is not just the First Officers who are paying to fly, there are indeed Captains on these “courses”. I am still trying to figure out what kind of airline in the world has their Captains and First Officer paying to fly for them! Madness.

You would try to leave knowing this wouldn’t you, if you had been stupid enough to come in the first place! Ha. Lion Air’s MD Rushdi Kirani (excuse the incorrect spelling sir), originally invented the ticketing system and software in use through the whole of Indonesia. He then opened up his own airline, and surprisingly, all the flights at Lion are full…sheer coincidence. Anyway, back to my point about trying to leave. The immigration office has “ties”/ bribe money to stop you leaving at the airport. On entry into Indonesia, you are initially given a tourist visa, and then, on completion of your “ground school” which was sitting in a classroom while the examiner told us the answers, you are then issued with a KITAS and work visa. This is in your passport, along with a “single entry” visa. So, if you want to leave the country now, you can’t, unless you have written permission a month in advance. Now imagine the scenario that a loved one dies, and you need to leave the country. I would almost say imagine leaving the country for a holiday, however, in your contract, holidays are banned, much like freedom of speech is with the gag clause. You are only allowed to leave to renew your licence/ medical.

It is my understanding that Indonesian law forbids working for free and that there is, like in most countries a minimum wage that needs paid. Not so the case with the P2F’s. Rumours, this being PPRuNe, are that the Head of Training is pocketing this small amount of compulsory salary money from over 80 of us now, in collaboration with a certain secretary, to an offshore account in New Zealand…

Back to the flying. All the communication from ground personnel and the majority of the flight attendants is in Bahasa which keeps you in the “loop”- the few that do speak a little English, it is well below standard. The Line training Captains English is good, however when you are released after training, the majority of line captains speak very simple English, indeed, there are a few Captains that do not speak one word of English which makes for an interesting game of Charades while flying a 70 tonne jet at 41,000ft with no map.

NOTAMS and Weather. I am not going to even bother telling you about the token documents you receive, SOMETIMES. Crew briefings. Say what? Best, get yourself a smart phone and check out the weather and Notams on that if you still plan on coming. Many of the places we fly to don’t have internet access, fire cover at the airport, or civilisation. Indeed, flying into Papua I think it was, there was a scantily clad man with a bow and arrow firing it at another scantily clad man with a bow and arrow…on the taxi way.

Lion, trying to maximise profits, as if having the staff paying to work for them was not enough, now aim for a quick turnaround or “fast track”, however, this just results in sometimes violent arguments erupting either between the flight crew, flight attendants, baggage handlers or dispatchers. Someone is getting it and its not pretty. No training was received about this new policy, merely an email (in Bahasa) telling you to, in so many words, haul ass. Since this “new” policy, there have been many incidents; indeed, one of my colleagues had an emergency diversion due to a fire in the cargo hold, whilst another had an explosion on landing.

You would think that, the authorities in Indonesia would do something- but the corruption is so bad that a blind eye is turned to nearly everything that is not white washed or bribed away.

Indeed, I really could go on….for hours about many other aspects of this unsafe and dangerous operation. I just wished to share my experience and hope that others will take heed. I am certain this will not stop the P2F madness from continuing, or will it stop the well heeled ME CPL IR’s from gaining experience in this way. Who is to blame for this situation, I am not sure. This “course” does lead to a job, or advantage over the non jet experienced pilot whether you like it or not, however, next time Mr. Cathay 747 Captain, you say P2F’s have no experience…well…we have stories at least, and surely, as you know it all, you want to have us up front for a giggle or two…certainly, if we survive Lion Air and manage to leave Indonesia, we will be smiling.

[Bumps]

No, you don't.
Lufthansa will test you, and then you will have to sign a contract, making you liable to pay back for the training, once you get hired. You don't pay back, if you don't get hired within 5 years after completion of your training. There is MPL, but no P2F at all.
And with MPL, I was very doubtful. But now I get a lot of new FOs, with MPL liscences, and they do leave the Sim with more than 100h on type, undergo a linetraining of more than 100 sectors with checkpilots. All after a thorough training in LH flight academy.
They of course have no experience, but what on earth would change that? Time would.
Also working for a regional subsidary of LH, I have flown withlots of new FOs with a background of many hours of small aircraft flying (like Cessnas on minor routes to the Islands in the northern sea). Actually I found them performig worse in a jet then the cadets. They were expected to get the hang of a jet in minimum time, and just couldn't. And the experience of working in a highly productive environment was nil.

Nic

You're not seeing what I'm saying. I am not defending P2F, I despite it. I also agree with you on MPL, it's a great way to get new guys in to the RHS in minimum time while teaching them from the ground up about the operation of their respective aircraft. I only wish they'd spend a bit more than 80 hours in an actual airplane, but I digress. What I am saying, in a nutshell, is that training is key for First Officers, not necessarily experience. I will not dispute your claim that you've flown with lower performing FO's @ LH Regional, but I firmly believe that low houred pilots are not a liability (If trained and tested to a certain standard, as seems to be the case in greater Europe). It's a proven concept, and has worked for legacy carriers as well as LCC's for a long time, so long as training is up to standards. It doesn't have to be an MPL, you and I both know that most LH co-pilots are people who graduated from the Lufty Academy with a mere fATPL and went straight in to a jet with 250hrs. We also know that Lufthansa has a great safety record. Same goes with all the airlines I listed above - FR, EZY, BA, TCX, TOM, EK, DY and the list just goes on and on.

Perhaps this is not the thread for this discussion though, because even though I find the fact that Lion Air is a source for the appalling P2F concept, we do not have any facts in hand as is. As another poster noted, even a paranoid can have real enemies.

[bubbers44]

Metars I read were severe VMC and light winds. But we must wait to see if thrust was lost causing the landing short of the runway.

[*Lancer*]

What are you guys going to do, when after the hysteria and misguided speculation dies down it's determined that the low-time inexperienced pilots did a sterling job after their: multiple bird strike / fuel contamination / (insert independent occurrence here) ?

[Diamond Bob]

There have been a lot of incidents in America without any P2F schemes, so I personally don't see why anyone can just blame that. None of the Colgan Q400 people were P2F either, in fact both had thousands of hours tt. Which is strange since that accident led to total time minimum legislation, even though both pilots had far above the mins. It just seems like the easy way out to blame low time pilots instead of a just get on the ground culture, bad maintenance, impatient and authoritarian captains, fatigue and work hours, etc.

As I remember, the captain in the Colgan Buffalo crash, Marvin Renslow, was P2F with Gulfstream. I would say that this allowed an incompetent pilot to end up in control of the Q400. The crash had three major causes:
1. Renslow's apparent lack of knowledge of the Q400 anti-ice system and the implications of setting the REF SPEEDS switch.
2. Failure to report his configuration correctly (anti ice activated) and the resultant incorrect setting of the bug speeds.
3. Incorrect response to the stick shaker which caused the aircraft to stall and crash.

Sounds like an incompetent P2F graduate to me.

[Sabreman24]

Is that part of the gear sitting on the reef just to the left of the nose ?......

http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/21/02/35/4466553/3/628x471.jpg

[Capn Bloggs]

Wind Shear

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...is certainly not to be ruled out (yet), although the METAR posted earlier showed "NOSIG."

NOSIG means "No Significant Change" from the current conditions, which actually METARs show as CB before and after the ditching time.

[neilki]

Marvin and his companion in the right seat, regardless of how they got their seats clearly had no place forward of the hardened flight deck door. They were victims of the industry, warm bodies and bean-counters boxes checked.
BA have a cadet scheme; and also dropped a triple 7 short of 27 and just clear of a gas station in Hatton Cross i recall, and though there were suspicions, getting to the bottom of F/OHE too the AAIB many months, so hold short fellas.
Turkish at AMS? -8 RH feet means you're on the ground, Gear Warning horn at TOD/idle.. 2+2. Systems knowledge is vital.. How on earth do you arrive 200m short in VMC? Kudos to the CC for getting everyone out.

[Mr Optimistic]

Doesn't the first P stand for 'Professional' ? So reading this because I am interested in what happened I am informed that I am a reckless fool if I book on EZY. The Millwall supporters at todays game started a fight between themselves. Compare and contrast.

[latetonite]

Mr. Optimistic, let me assure you, as a long time pilot, you can trust a booking on FR or Easy. Been a bit everywhere, got the T shirt, and know what I am talking about.

[latetonite]

Lancer, your comment, at present time, is on the numbers.

[PBY]

I teach sim in this part of the woods. The number one problem people have is to multiply by 3. If you fly non precision approach, you have to be 300 feet high for each mile from the runway. I know, it sounds like basic. But this is missing these days in airlines. It is considered an advanced stuff. Rwy 09 has only a Vor approach and it leads you to 1050 about 3.5 miles from the runway. Which is ok. But the rest of the road you are on your own. You have to watch papi and your descend rate. And most people forget about the descend rate. If your groundspeed is 140 you have to descend roughly 700 feet per minute.
I think it could have something to do with this accident, but of course, there could be some more factors.

[latetonite]

PBY, can you give me a PM?

[TRF4EVR]

The RAF also have some of the best training in the world, get to select from an already highly self-selecting group, plan every mission like a space shuttle launch, and in many cases have more oversight. It's a ludicrous comparison. As someone said up above, every high time guy used to be a low time guy. And as a guy who used to be a low time guy, I can assure you that the right seat of an airliner is not the place to be learning how to fly.

[Luke SkyToddler]

I'm surprised it hasn't already come up on this thread given the amount of P2F bashing but it's been heavily discussed elsewhere on the wannabe's pages, apparently Lion Air introduced an SOP last year that Captain makes all the landings and FO is not allowed to touch the controls below 5000'.

Not that it necessarily makes a difference - when I was in the mid east I flew with with some very high time skippers from Indonesia (and a few other bastions of aviation safety like Liberia and Cameroon :rolleyes: ) and some of them were an absolute menace to safety. Just because you've got 10,000 hours flogging thrashed, illegally maintained, overloaded, 1960s vintage cargo Antonovs, doesn't mean you know jack about how to correctly operate a brand new Boeing or 'Bus.

In my turboprop days in the UK I also flew with some green as grass (albeit well trained) 200 hour cadets and they were some of the best pilots I've ever shared a flight deck with. If I had to choose one or the other to land a plane when the sh!t was hitting the fan, it would be no contest.

[repariit]

That rather depends on which part of the airframe hit the water first. As mentioned above, the apparently detached horizontal stabilizer might give a clue. I expect the FDR will show back pressure on the yoke and pitch up at impact with the water.

[Cubbie]

Flew into Bali a few nights ago, we experienced what the locals told us was flash rain storms at this time of year, and we encountered extremely heavy but small localised rain showers on final approach.The reported ATIS weather was nil weather. Thankfully due to the winds we were given an ils on rwy 27- its about time they installed an ils on rwy 09, would not have wanted to do a vor/dme approach in that weather!

[blueloo]

Anyone know if it would trigger the Egpws (as in the enhanced bit with a terrain database) - or would it likely sneak in the area covered being only maybe a couple of hundred feet low.

[Boomerang]

What professional pilot would ALLOW a serviceable aircraft to land on water well short of the runway in VMC (minima 470')? No-one! Hence I am giving the pilots the benefit of the doubt and say there MUST be some external factor that was the major causal factor. Ie W/shear, whitened papi by salt spray, mechanical failure etc.

[*Lancer*]

Terrain clearance floor function is 400' at 5nm to 0' at 0.5nm from the runway end.

[Capn Bloggs]

I expect the FDR will show back pressure on the yoke and pitch up at impact with the water.
Standard procedure, I believe, when landing any aircraft, on water or any other surface...

[sevenstrokeroll]

about a zillion years ago, the ALPA lobied for ILS approaches to all airports/runways served by jets.

There are visual deceptions associated with a rain splattered windshield, and the noise from the wipers is defening. Add to that possible windshear and the way a rain soaked windshield and the ocean below may blend in as one...

It is becoming clear enough that the lack of ILS to this runway, heavy rain (for fans of ''bowfinger'', chubby rain) may be contributing. wonder if they used the RAINBOE.?

[sevenstrokeroll]

I agree with PBY and his views. The very idea of non precision approaches almost demands a few ''aids'' like the 300 feet per nm (closer to 316 feet, but close enough) and the rule of five times your ground speed to give you a 3 degree glideslope descent rate...5x140=700 fpm.

I learned these rules from two of the best...DP Davies and an authhor named WEbb. Their books, "handling the big jets", and "Fly the Wing" should be mandatory for any ''jet pilot''.

the trouble is these books are both over 40 years old and too many modern pilots can't be bothered with the old reliable ways.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Flying a plane is just a small part of the job...

It is the 'job'.

Disagree with the second quote, I'm with Greenlight.

'Handling the Hardware" when everything is going as planned, or programmed, can be taught to a monkey ( or a computer / autopilot) being the Captain is something that can't be taught by rote, hopefully one acquires the necessary skills whilst sitting in the right hand seat.

Took me 16 yrs. before I was offered the chance to move left, but even then I hadn't seen some of the events that I had to deal with in the next 20 - with no text book or Company SOP Manual to guide me.

it's called The Loneliness of Command.

[*Lancer*]

Reports that they declared an emergency suggest that it was not inadvertently flown into the water.

[bubbers44]

Handling the big jets was my bible when I got into jet aircraft. It explained a lot of things that no other aviation manual could. Especially high altitude aerodynamics. Thank god for books like that to learn what you should know as an airline pilot. The airlines won't teach you. I have had our check airmen tell me BS that if they had read that book they would not have said. They do not understand how a lot of things work. I was encouraged to be a check airman once but did not want to be concerned about anybody's cockpit but mine. Fishing on my days off with no concerns about anybody elses flight really appealed to me.

[B772]

Seeing the Lion B737-800 secured by 'ropes' reminds me of the Garuda B737-400 that landed in a river many years ago after both engines flamed out in IMC at altitude. All passengers survived this landing although a junior cabin crew member drowned after she opened a rear exit and jumped out. This a/c was also secured by ropes.

The latest rumour re Lion at DPS is fuel starvation !

[philipat]

I live in Bali and know the terrain. My understanding from the pictures is that the aircraft was attempting to land on Runway 27 NOT Runway 09. It finished up in the ocean NOT the highway and mangroves at the end of Runway 09. From my understanding of the terrain, the hull is pointing to the WEST with the surf breaks of Kuta Beach clearly visible behind.

AT the time of the accident there were low clouds and light rain in the general vicinity of South Bali but visibility was good.

If I am correct, that suggests that the aircraft overflew the entire length of Runway 27 before landing in the ocean, which raises the question of why the PF did not just go around?

[ad-astra]

How may times does it have to be said

IT WAS LANDING ON 09!!!!

10 pages of this and the experts will be coming up with UFO's as the next excuse.

I'm in Bali and landed 30 mins prior to the accident and have no idea what caused the crash but am more than willing to wait for the facts to come out!

[bubbers44]

Is there some reason with the metar we don't know which way they were landing? Either they landed short or went off the end. Which way was it?

[calm10clear]

If you had the FDR, what is the first thing you would want to know????

[bubbers44]

So 100% they landed short of 09?

[piggybank]

Just took a stroll down to the airport and no sign of the plane. Plenty of ghouls hanging round the breakwater to the north of the runway possibly hoping for another crash. I can only assume the plane has been towed to the beach at Jimbaren as access is better there for road vehicles. I watched TV last night with the CEO giving a sit down talk to the press and media. Definitely an example of how not to handle a meeting with the press.

[FR8R H8R]

Seriously? Someone tried to argue that a 2000 hour RAF pilot is somehow equal to a Lion Air captain? YGTBSM. Pay for training and flying a completely automated aircraft is nothing like flying in the RAF.

I have also been to Bali numerous times. if the fence is intact, how does one think this was an overrun from 27? Looks like a visual approach gone horrible wrong to runway 9 off the Indian Ocean.

[philipat]

If it overshot 09 it would have taken out the main highway running down from Ngurah Rai to Nusa Dua? If it was landing on 09 it must have landed short NOT overshot. Oh, and in reverse?

If it landed short why are all the media reports still referring to "Overshooting"?

[ad-astra]

It was landing on runway 09 and crashed short of the runway.

Its not that hard! Jesus wept!

Look at the radar traces.

[Capn Bloggs]

If radar data confirmed the aircraft was fairly consistently about 100 feet below a 3 degrees glide path then it sounds more like pilot error than a sudden wind shear event.
Have you done any NPAs? Unless you are coupled to an FMS VNAV path, being 100ft below on an NPA is no big deal, and in fact is a good idea especially with low cloud but good vis, because it allows you to get Visual during the level-off at the MDA while still being just below the on-slope PAPI. The only requirement is not be below any limiting steps during the approach.

If I am correct, that suggests that the aircraft overflew the entire length of Runway 27 before landing in the ocean, which raises the question of why the PF did not just go around?

Oh come on. End up in the water, 50m from the seawall, bascially in one piece, after overflying the whole length on the runway? Don't be ridiculous.

[repariit]

If you had the FDR, what is the first thing you would want to know???? Engine status!

[TRF4EVR]

Were they schtooping any of the F/As?

[bubbers44]

On a clear day landing on 09 and landing short I would weap unless I lost power. Did they?

[wooski]

philipat ,
you can see all the other planes landing on 09 , then the virgin aircraft circle as im guessing he was next in line to touch down

LNI904 live flight tracking - Plane Finder (http://planefinder.net/flight/LNI904/time/2013-04-13T07:05:00%20UTC)

as well as on Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0) which shows this track.

edit: removed img as it doesnt allow linking.

[ad-astra]

If it landed short why are all the media reports still referring to "Overshooting"?

If we have to explain the accuracy of the press in such circumstances then we will have no hope in convincing you that they were landing on 09.

[Sabreman24]

You can see part of the main gear on the reef, just left of the nose.......

http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/21/02/35/4466553/3/628x471.jpg

[philipat]

OK thanks, apologies and I stand corrected. 09 is the default and there was very little wind at the time. I guess the aircraft must have turned around on impact to face West.

[Slasher]

I totally agree with an Avherald (wooski's link) quote -

Facts
By WorldWideWelshman on Saturday, Apr 13th 2013 20:18Z

What do we know?

It ended up short of the runway, and without warning
according to interviews with pax. Happily, everyone
survived.

Errr.... that's it. We have no clue whether this crew is Sully
v2 or whether they were at fault, and nor will we for some
time. (my bold)

Speculation is utterly pointless. Racist, childish remarks
even more so.

Wait and see. As is always the case, the truth will out in
due course.....

[repariit]

I guess the aircraft must have turned around on impact to face West. The photos indicate that it is floating well, With wind and currents it could pivot on any ground contact.

[philipat]

On a clear day landing on 09 and landing short I would weap unless I lost
power. Did they?


Exactly, which is why it took so long to understand. There were scattered low clouds and localised rain showers but nothing heavy and visibility was good.

[bubbers44]

A track I got shows they were landining on 09 so unless they lost power I guess they just landed in the water. Why? Did they just follow the FD?

[blueloo]

Have you done any NPAs? Unless you are coupled to an FMS VNAV path, being 100ft below on an NPA is no big deal, and in fact is a good idea especially with low cloud but good vis, because it allows you to get Visual during the level-off at the MDA while still being just below the on-slope PAPI. The only requirement is not be below any limiting steps during the approach.

What the? You can't be serious.

[bubbers44]

I only had one female FO that stupid trying to land in vinyards short of ONT. Her FD stuck nose down. Wasn't her fault she said.

[Tangan]

Not sure if it has been mentioned however simply "forgetting" to set the QNH could have caused this accident. If the pilots left standard 1013 set instead of the actual QNH of 1007 it would place the aircraft 180' low on the approach.
Combine this with poor visibility !!!!!

[airbus_driver319]

Blogg, you do know that levelling off at MDA is banned by most aviation authorities? Not to mention it is a requirement to pass the IOSA audit that you don't conduct dive and drive approaches.

With a modern aircraft flying a continuous descent down to a DDA is simple.

[PENKO]

Sure...and then continue below minimum, continue below 50..30...20.10.. without the runway in sight? Guys, this speculation is useless.

[smiling monkey]

Not sure if it has been mentioned however simply "forgetting" to set the QNH could have caused this accident. If the pilots left standard 1013 set instead of the actual QNH of 1007 it would place the aircraft 180' low on the approach.
Combine this with poor visibility !!!!!

Errmmm... what do most pilots do when visual reference is lost after descending below the MDA?

[repariit]

Quote:
I expect the FDR will show back pressure on the yoke and pitch up at impact with the water.
Standard procedure, I believe, when landing any aircraft, on water or any other surface...
Separation of RH Stabilizer, and fuselage break between Sections 46 & 48 may indicate that pitch up exceeded standard procedure.

[SomeGuyOnTheDeck]

Just a thought - and from a non-pilot at that, but from looking at the Google image here Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0) is it possible the crew were victims of an optical illusion? With poor visibility (i.e. a downpour), might it just be possible to mistake the outer edge of the coral reef with the actual coastline further back, at least from a distance? In some photos there are clearly waves breaking at the edge of the reef, and I can imagine that once you've convinced yourself that it is the coastline, it may take time to realise your mistake. I'm not suggesting that this could be the sole cause of the accident, but wonder if it might possibly be a contributing factor?

[TRF4EVR]

Wait, is someone suggesting that they might have accidentally flown in to the water due to "poor visibility", through no fault of their own? God, I love the Internet.

[smiling monkey]

I'm not suggesting that this could be the sole cause of the accident, but wonder if it might possibly be a contributing factor?

Sure, it may have been a contributing factor, but you would hope that a professional would not continue the approach and landing once they have lost all visual references. Basic airmanship 101 which you learn back in flight school.

[B-737ng_Driver]

Rwy 09 was in used so assumed that they were cleared for the VOR/DME Rwy 09.

It is a non precision approach at published MDA of 470ft. It was a VMC by the time METAR in WADD indicated. However, I am not sure that either heavy rain on final restricted their view after the MDA caused
undershoot.

The wipers on B738 (9) gives very limited view and doesn't work well under the heavy rain.

If windsher was indicated in ATIS, then it's clear sign of TS adjacent to the airport.

The pictuere taken just after the accident shows grey rainy cloud just west of the airport assumed that there was rain maybe on the final approach path for Rwy 09.

B738 (9) has both Windshear and Predective Windshear Warnings to notify pilots and we have procedures to follow so unless intentionally ignored by the crewmembers, I would not think that this is a major factor for the accident.

I speculate that the crew reached the MDA after the VOR/DME appraoch but heavy rain on short final affect their judgement to deviate form correct path to the runway. Nither any of crew members called go-around after the successful landing could not be made due to the loss of visual with runway caused airplane to undershoot but the actual cause is unknown at the moment. I am looking forward to read the investigation report as we fly often this approach and fly the same aircraft type.

[SomeGuyOnTheDeck]

TRF4EVR, I'm suggesting no such thing. All I'm saying is that maybe it could have been a contributing factor, perhaps explaining (at least partially) why they were lower than procedure would require on the approach. And yes, the internet is a wonderful thing - you only have to look at the military aircrew threads on this forum to see descriptions of pilots mistaking roads for runways - are you going to make dismissive comments about that too?. Most of the time, this sort of thing results in nothing more than embarrassment. But most accidents have more than one cause - and a misreading of ones distance from the coastline, on its own, isn't going to cause the plane to land short. On its own. As yet, we don't know what else was going on. If visibility wasn't an issue, my suggestion is irrelevant - but if it was, why ignore the possibility that the pilots 'saw' what they expected to see - this is a common enough error. Obviously, they couldn't have carried on to intentionally 'touch down' on the reef without realising - but then we know that they'd declared an emergency anyway. If they had other issues, and the stress that would go with them, misreading their distance from the runway threshold, even if only for a few moments, might possibly help explain what occurred.

[contractpilot69]

Is it true you're not allowed to be PF below 5000 ft?

Yes, that is true. Apparently, their 'boss' decided this after a few FOs slammed their 73's tails onto the ground.

There was a thread about this somewhere on these forums but now I can't find it.

EDIT: The post I quoted has disappeared???

[Toruk Macto]

Having a S/O that can't operate below 5000 is one thing but an F/O , this is a problem .
F/O would be stressed enough dealing with a cpt incapacitated then to be PF and get it on the ground with no landing currency .
If some of these rumors are even %50 true then cpts who may be P2F themselves are doing every app and ldg , short sectors , over 100+ hours a month in atrocious wx .
Maybe cpt was arguing about fuel uplift before the flight ? If the whole truth comes out it will be interesting reading .

[John Citizen]

With at least 6 accidents (including several write off's) since start up, you can now understand part of the reason for the large aircraft orders :E

At least someone is thinking ahead. Perhaps the business model allows for a hull loss every year or 2 as the savings in not paying for quality training and for a competent work force far outweigh this loss. :confused:

[armchairpilot94116]

Lion Air too big to fail ? (they hope)

[TRF4EVR]

TRF4EVR, I'm suggesting no such thing.

Well, we Yanks aren't real good at Readin (or Ritin, or Rithmetic), but it sort of looked like you were. Apologies all around. You can maybe understand my confusion if you go back and read your original post. In any case, in my general, paltry experience, when aircraft get flown in to the firma they're either broken or the pilots are fools. I have a hard time (in my tiny septic brain) conceiving of this circumstance in which, woops, we did everything right, nothing is broken, and we're rapidly becoming submerged! But that's just me bein ole Cousin Jethro again, I suspect. Shucks!

[philipat]

Rain showers can, of course, be localised but I was swimming in my pool in Sanur at the time of the accident and there were a few low clouds around and perhaps local showers but nothing heavy. No thunderstorms in the vicinity. Subject to detailed met reports, I would be very surprised if Short Finals were impeded in any way by rain and/or poor visibility.

[IndoLion]

Dear Colleagues,
As we heard a news that today one of our colleague got serious accident at Bali.
JT 904 / PK LKS / B 737-800 NG
Stretch : BDO-DPS
PIC : Capt. Mahlup Gozali (Local)
SIC : FO . Chirag Kalra (Indian)

Everyone onboard include active crew has been evacuate and no fatalities.
We highly appreciate with their good job and excellent professionalism.
Now we need all colleague to keep focus on your job and give service excellent to all passenger by giving a flight announcement with warm greetings. We need to keep all passenger feel safe to fly with Lion Air.
Last time kindly to remind you that always be aware of sudden windshear or any kind of weather phenomena that would result on speed drop and even worse aircraft sink especially on very short final position. Don't hesitate to put more additional thrust to disseminate this event and if abnormal thrust position reach it means the stabilized approach criteria has been breach and this is the alert for us to commence immediate GO AROUND. At this time REJECT LANDING Go Around procedure must be comply accordingly.
Finally my colleague I would like to say SAFETY IS COMES FROM OUR DICIPLINE. Always Keep alert and Have a safe flight.
God bless us.
Sincerely yours,

[Cereal Expert]

Yesterday afternoons weather at the western end of the runway at 3.30pm was terrible. It wasn't grey, it was black, and pissing pickhandles all over the approach area. It certainly landed straight onto the water above the reef. Lucky it was a highish tide. Went out this morning to the airport reefs and there she was. In the drink with a cleanly broken back. How they ended up in this predicament is beyond me, though to not have it break up on impact is a pure miracle. Lots people don't know. What I know, the pilots were flying, they ended up in trouble, and with there butts welded shut, pulled of the perfect landing given the circumstances. Time for another book. Has anyone called Oprah?

[ATC Watcher]

Well, indeed a Swiming pool in Sanur is not close to the met station in the airport :
if you look at the METARs published by the AvHerald ( same link as mentioned a few post earlier) they tell a different story ;
accident occurred at 07:10 according to them
WADD 130730Z 15006KT 110V270 9999 FEW017CB SCT017 30/25 Q1007 NOSIG
So CBs were reported .
Interestingly the preceding METAR was :
WADD 130700Z 09006KT 9999 BKN017 30/26 Q1007 NOSIG
which tell you all about the validity of a NOSIG in tropical areas....

[*Lancer*]

ATC Watcher, it's still NOSIG... CB does not equal TS.

[framer]

Is it true that the f/o can't be PF below 5000ft? I find that insane. At my company we only have 17 737's but we have had two complete incapacitations of Captains within the last year. Both stressful for the f/o's but no major safety issue as they all fly every second sector.
If someone can confirm it is true I will be sure never to fly with them again on my leave breaks.

[nojwod]

I'm not an air accident investigator nor am I in Bali nor am I an armchair expert like so many who come to grace these halls with their wisdom but...

Reading through all the posts and separating the innuendo and utter speculative crap from the known facts, it seems most likely that they were short on power on final, that's why they were below the glideslope and marginal for speed. Probably trying deperately to coax it to the runway, but when that was in doubt made the choice to land on the water rather than risk ploughing into the seawall.

Speculation about safety records, crew status etc is just pure pointlessness until some real facts are released by the investigation. Makes it a real pain to try and glean some sense from these threads :-(

[Boomerang]

A few other things about the WADD VOR/DME09,
On Airbus, the final waypoint on the FMS for VOR/DME rwy 09, "WADD09" is actually the missed approach point, not the threshold. If you try to fly 3x on that you will end up low as it is still a fair way (edit 1.5nm from chart below) to the actual threshold, which is normally the last waypoint on your FMS (not in this case though). I don't know if this is the same for this particular approach on a Boeing FMS.

ATC is not very forthcoming with a QNH when you first transition from FL to Alt. You often need to ask for it. This QNH will often be different tomATIS. Then on short final the tower may give you a QNH again. This often varies from the one you were given 5 minutes ago.

Winds at WADD can be 180 degrees different at both thresholds. With Light/variable winds it is not uncommon to have 5kt tailwind at both thresholds, with >5kt tailwind midfield (FMS/IAS/GS check)

The approach slope is 2.8 degrees, whilst the PAPI is 3 degrees.

The PAPIs are occasionally coated by dried salt from sea spray, this makes the reds more difficult to discern.

Lasers on approach are par for the course in WADD, however more so at night.

The waters look very warm and inviting for a swim?

[Capn Bloggs]

http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w334/capnbloggs/WADD_VOR09_zpsc311c84e.jpg (http://s521.photobucket.com/user/capnbloggs/media/WADD_VOR09_zpsc311c84e.jpg.html)

[TRF4EVR]

I dunno, that looks pretty complex.

[training wheels]

Is it true that the f/o can't be PF below 5000ft? I find that insane.

Yes, I believe that is the case with Lion Air which came into effect sometime last year due to a number of incidents with tail srtikes. There was a thread on that in the South East Asia forum. So the P2Fs are only paying to fly above 5000 ft which is really not much effort with A/P engaged.

http://www.pprune.org/south-asia-far-east/506362-no-take-off-landings-lion-air-f-os.html

The WADD 09 VOR approach has an inbound course of 091, but it's actually off set by 5 degrees to the left of runway centerline. If you become visual just before the missed approach point, you still need to manoevure 2 DME from the threshold to line up with the runway centreline ... runway 09 has a track of 086 if I remember correctly.

[LLuCCiFeR]

The impact on safety from P2F are twofold;

1) from an airline's perspective: because airlines don't have to pay for training they will not be motivated to get the best pilot money can buy. Passive and docile (see point 2 below) 'button pushers' and 'bums on seats' will suffice.

2) from a pilot's perspective: by putting your head through a financial noose these pilots will be totally inhibited from addressing any safety issues. As a matter of fact a whole new generation of pilots is bred, who from day one have NO idea of any safety concept, but merely aim to please management and the person to their left.

Here's Harlan Ellison with an absolutely brilliant rant of how Hollywood 'pays' it's writers, scarily applicable to the airline industry as well:

Harlan Ellison -- Pay the Writer - YouTube

[Capn Bloggs]

The WADD 09 VOR approach has an inbound course of 091 but despite the Jepps saying it's a straight-in approach, it's actually off set by 5 degrees to the left of runway centerline. If you become visual just before the missed approach point, you still need to manoevure 2 DME from the threshold to line up with the runway centreline ... runway 09 has a track of 086 if I remember correctly.
This is standard Straight-In Approach NPA stuff, Training Wheels. Unless the aid is on the extended centreline, you'll always have to manoeuvre left or right to line up with the runway. If the approach is flown as per the chart, only once though, a slight turn to align; left in this case. It may be after the MApt.

When the manoeuvring required to align exceeds the practical, then it becomes a Circling Approach.

[garpal gumnut]

TV news in Australia report that no investigators at Lion Air plane yet. Only person there is a man in his underpants painting over the Lion logo on the fuselage.
Can this be true?

[Heathrow Harry]

surprised it's taken so long - in the States it's about the first thing they do............

[camel]

Brings a whole new meaning to the Fly + Dive package holiday.:eek:

More seriously looks like a fuel problem, lucky it wasn't Malindo,the new kid on the block..the skipper will be able put us all out of our misery pdq.

[philipat]

Well, indeed a Swiming pool in Sanur is not close to the met station in the
airport
About 4 miles due East of 027 Threshold actually. Close enough to know whether to get out of the pool if TS are close. Winds almost zero and low clouds both East and West so agree that West of the airport, given the prevailing SE winds at this time of year (Although just changing from W to SE and still oscillating), would not be visible from Sanur.

And regarding power loss option preference to land in the sea rather than "Hit" the sea wall or runway, at DPS the wall is ABOUT 15 Ft and the option is NOT to ditch because there is very obvious and shallow reef all the way in. That's not a "Sully" option, perhaps "Hobson's choice" in the event of power loss?

Looks like a power problem leaving no options or total incompetence but agree that speculation at this stage with no real technical information is useless.

[A4]

Looks like a power problem leaving no options or total incompetence but agree that speculation at this stage with no real technical information is useless.

Oh the irony of that post! :ugh::ugh::hmm:

A4