Sad truth at last

[Turbavykas]

New Study Challenges Pilot Shortage...

New Study Challenges Pilot Shortage (http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Study_Challenges_Pilot_Shortage_208333-1.html)

[Artie Fufkin]

Why believe this study over all the others?

Is it because this was written by a "young First Officer" as opposed to all the others written by industry experts?

Large numbers of pilots will be needed over the next few years, just not in the western world.

[TypeIV]

Large numbers of pilots will be needed over the next few years, just not in the western world.
The problem is that a very Large number already is available.

[clearblueskyy]

The problem is that a very Large number already is available.

..and there's an army of pilots currently undergoing training . :hmm::ok:

[UAV689]

There is no shortage, and will be no shortage in EU for sure.

The boom that ended in 2008 was fuelled by massive growth in likes of FR and easy, there will be no more expansions like this. Europe will return to deadman shoes situation from now on in.

This talk of ryan placing big jet orders is likely to be fleet replacments not additions i fear, their jets are begining to age, they can off load them now before major d checks are needed and replace with shiney new. All in my opinion.

Far east is different, albiet at present a lot of nations restricting non- Nationals working there, and as soon as they get their cadet schemes on stream i think within 5-7 years that avenue will close completely for non nationals.

I can currently see instructors with 3000 hours, 2000 ME/IR, still not able to get into an airline and paying to fly.

[talkpedlar]

"doesn't matter who's wrote it.."

Sorry to be pedantic ZZA..but I fear that it won't be industry demand which prevents your future employment prospects..:ugh:

good luck all the same

[nick14]

The Jet orders are expansion mainly with some replacements. Their sim is to carry 120m pax. The pilot shortage won't be apparent for us Europeans but further east the already is a shortage with massive growth inthe industry as large populations become wealthy enough to fly.

[Artie Fufkin]

@ Artie Fufkin-I believe this one because it matches with what I see & the reality (key word in the podcast interview for me) of what's happening, doesn't matter who's wrote it...


Fair enough. I wonder though why friends of mine are clearing over 10k a month post tax out in China. Is it because there is a massive oversupply of 737 captains?

[ZuluZuluAlpha]

No idea but remember that not all are lucky enough to be FOs let alone captains...

[BerksFlyer]

Artie Fufkin,

I'm pretty sure it's accepted fact that the only shortage is only and will only ever be for experienced pilots. Hence your mates in China. It's not something that will have much of a drop down effect, or last forever, as countries like China strive to move away from expat employment.

[Artie Fufkin]

I think I'll stand by my original assessment; lots of pilots required over the coming years, very few from the western world. Lots of Indian / Chinese /Arab pilots on the way, very few CTC/OAA European pilots required.

[GusHoneybun]

Disagree. In the far/mid east, being a pilot is not an aspirational job as it is over here in the west. The "status" of the job is viewed on a par with bus/taxi drivers. That's why they are still struggling to find girls or boys willing to do it.
Hence, crewrooms in places like Hong Kong, Dubai, Doha, China, India etc are full of ex-pat pilots and very few locals.

Its a bit like the plumbing scene in the UK. It's a well paid job with a pretty much a life time of work, yet firms can't find enough kids today willing to train. Probably as they are all too precious and not wanting to do any actual hard graft. Hence, you call out a plumber and a van full of eastern europeans arrive. Do a good job as well.

The pilot shortage in the west has always been with experienced left seat drivers. Always has been, always will be.

[despegue]

And as long that we keep saying " drivers" to our jn title, status will only decline.
We are Officers, either Second, First or Captain. Drivers are for indeed trains and lorries.

[VNAVPTH]

Considering the number of airlines in the UK alone (leaving the rest of the EU out of the situation) that have gone under or are about to, I'd say the end of the decade was about right. As fewer airlines exist, fewer jobs will be made available. Those airlines do grow to fill a void that doesn't exist (due to lack of consumer demand in the former market) will simply work existing crews harder. The european boom is bust. Contraction is the new normal and carrers in other parts of the world are generally looking for experienced pilots. Not every UK or EU or US pilot wants to work in the Middle East or Asia.
@Artie Fufkin whilst I agree that nationalisation programmes exist in your mentioned states, the picture isn't all that rosy either. Take the numbers of Indan pilots from Kingfisher all looking for jobs. Not all of them will be successful by a long shot.

[fade to grey]

I,m with UAV.
I hate to be the bearer of further bad news, but any shortage is very type specific as well.
The only shortages will be a) in crappy parts of the world in crap companies with crap terms people don't want. b) for those typed on the particular type of aircraft they fly.

The goal posts move constantly - as an example take Air Astana, who advertise every year for 75/76 captains. It's not that popular as it's in a cold and inhospitable part of the world and commuting amounts to 6 weeks on/2 off - not much of a home life.

Last year rated and current 757 people could apply - this year you need 500 P1 on the 767 (I've done differences but not flown it) and 200 hours in the last year total (ruling out unemployed pilots).

It doesn't get better just keps getting worse.Even for experienced jet pilots.