Feb 21 - Qantas due to release its first-half results today has been caught off guard

[TIMA9X]

Qantas director caught up in corruption scandal

"Qantas has been caught off guard by the revelation that one of its non-executive directors, Corinne Namblard, is part of an investigation into the corruption scandal surrounding the world’s oldest surviving bank, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena."

With the national carrier preparing to release its first-half results on Thursday, the board at Qantas was only made aware of Ms Namblard’s connection to the long-running scandal in Siena on Wednesday, when The Australian Financial Review sought comment from the director. Ms Namblard, relatively unknown in the Australian market until her appointment to the Qantas board in June 2011

"The Qantas director specifically denied reports in local Italian media that she had personally been charged in relation to the investigation. “I feel very strongly about this, my personal reputation is clearly at stake here,” Ms Namblard said.

“I have to officially make a very clear statement that there are absolutely no charges. Yes, there are investigations going on. Yes, we have been caught in the process of those investigations."

“My lawyers and myself have repeatedly said things have been done by Galaxy above the board and in a very transparent manner.”

Asked why the Qantas board was not aware of the ongoing investigation in Italy, which has proceeded to a preliminary hearing, Ms Namblard said the matter had been discussed with the headhunter who recruited her to the director role and “other people” were aware of it." my bold

Qantas director caught up in corruption scandal (http://afr.com/p/business/companies/qantas_director_caught_up_in_corruption_LXYAzahD7oTMFgnD0naH aM)

Hmm, Fun way to start off today's proceedings.. could be a long day for the PR script re-writers me thinks... more to come...

[qfguy]

Its $111m. Up 164%.

But... A Chunk of it is from canceling 35 x 787s. So the big wigs will get their bonus from making a good profit based on a terrible decision. :ugh:

[Mstr Caution]

Qantas board member denies wrongdoing | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/qantas-board-member-denies-wrongdoing/story-e6frfku9-1226582414817)

I would suggest to allow the court proceedings to run it's natural course.

In the meantime, how about running an airline and CLEANING your aircraft the photo of the A380 flag ship is a disgrace.

MC

[Skipness One Echo]

One assumes that was taken when she was sat out in Singapore after the accident.....

[Romulus]

Dreamliner cash fuels Qantas profit (http://www.smh.com.au/business/earnings-season/dreamliner-cash-fuels-qantas-profit-20130221-2esj8.html)

[Stalins ugly Brother]

What a joke this profit announcement is.

Sacrafice long term growth with the 787s and the companies viability for a Short term profit just for the sake of a few bonuses.

Geniuses :ugh:

Please p1$$ off Alan, and take that miserable board with you.

[going down-under]

Hear, hear, ugly brother

[going down-under]

It included $125 million in cash from Boeing for cancelling firm orders for 35 of the long-delayed 787 Dreamliner planes.

Read more: Boeing cash papers over Qantas cracks (http://www.smh.com.au/business/earnings-season/boeing-cash-papers-over-qantas-cracks-20130221-2esj8.html#ixzz2LUTc7RYB[/quote)]

Cancelling frees money in your account, but you still pay a penalty (so you pay for an aircraft you're not buying)


Qantas emphasised that all of its operations including Jetstar were profitable apart from its premium international division. But it highlighted the fact that the losses of Qantas International had been reduced by 65 per cent to $91 million in the first half.
Read more: Boeing cash papers over Qantas cracks (http://www.smh.com.au/business/earnings-season/boeing-cash-papers-over-qantas-cracks-20130221-2esj8.html#ixzz2LUU1EK5W[/quote)]



A 65% reduced loss is still a loss

[blow.n.gasket]

How much "off balance sheet debt" is Qantas carrying?
Hows that credit rating looking?:sad:

[Going Boeing]

But it highlighted the fact that the losses of Qantas International had been reduced by 65 per cent to $91 million in the first half.

I (& many others) don't believe that QF International is losing money - the high load factors would indicate solid profits. The only way for there to be a "loss" would be ongoing payment of Jetstar expenses and the carrying of a significant excess of staff caused by the gifting of routes to Jetstar and some foreign airlines. Management is on-track to close down the mainline international operation.

[Eddie Bauer]

This just underlines the fact the management are only in it for the short term bonus. I could never understand why QF never went back to Boeing and took a tougher stance over the 787.

Instead of cancellations and write downs, why not say to Boeing that due to the delayed deliver of the 787, we require x number of brand new 767 (I assume that the new builds incorporate greater fuel saving technology, after all, we keep getting told that 787 is a replacement for A330 at J*, which are a replacement for gas guzzling 767's at QF) until such time as you can deliver the aircraft we are buying.

This allows QF to have a fuel saving product as well as a product that would keep its paying customers happy, all with little to no cost.

Could this have been achievable, or am I simply being deluded SLF?

Ps, I know logic is as much a swear word in aviation as it is in my field of rail, but one can dream, can't I?

[DirectAnywhere]

You can fly an aeroplane full and still lose plenty of dough.

The number one cost remains fuel. If you're charging the same for tickets as your competitors - which you need to do to fill the aeroplanes - but are flying aeroplanes that burn 30% more per ASK (744 vs. 77W) you're going to lose.

That's the real reason international continues to burn money...literally.

Management book the bonuses for the failures of 10 years ago and staff are left to pay the price.

[TIMA9X]

xGPxJcczbZc

good to see that the Copenhagen sales are up..... :suspect:

.

[Mstr Caution]

TIMA9X

I'm looking forward to hearing more about the "Transformotion Process" as outlined at 0:33.

[CFM56-7]

Hmmm
Something wrong with my calculator. $111 mil profit less compo ($125mil) is $14 mil loss down from $40 mil profit 1 year ago so going backwards ?? , but I'm sure I must be wrong.
Need to prob use my iPhone calc app next time.

[Ka.Boom]

Qantas pays for its fuel in $US.
Qantas also used to boast about its hedging strategy.
They've been quiet about that for awhile
Perhaps they stuffed it up?
Anyone surprised if they did ?

[ohallen]

Media reporting $100m reduction in domestic due to competitive activity from DJ. Can see the next lot of headlines already.

Sad but entirely predictable whilst this management team are in town.

[standard unit]

Described on the screen shot above as a North Korean propaganda video.

Kim Jong Al ??

[Angle of Attack]

Lol SU good pickup!

[MooseKnuckle]

I generally breeze over the load factors.

I mean if you're selling:
- 20 seats and you only manage to sell 16, then you'll have an 80% load factor.
- 10 seats and you only manged to sell 8, then you'll have an 80% load factor.

So even though you've reduced the number of seats available to be sold/consumed, in both cases your load factor remains steady. ASK, RPK, unit cost etc are all far more useful in my opinion.

Yet to read the report fully.

[Twin Beech]

I agree, MooseKnuckle. It appears to my jaundiced eye that load factors might just be Joyce's key performance marker. Why else the emphasis? And why, come to think of it, have all of our anecdotal load factors been very high, yet loss making?

I wonder if yield management has been tasked to fill seats at any fare to get to a certain trigger load factor, hence the poor returns?

Ah well, when we are reduced to a sole SYD-LAX service I imagine our load factors will be pretty high. If they could use the jumpseats they could achieve 100.5 %! Double bonuses for every CEO in the fleet!

There is a Dilbert cartoon showing a character getting his KPI targets. The caption goes: "great! This is written permission to ignore the rest of my job!"

[TIMA9X]

BT85szJ5nt0
Qantas continues to do it tough, partly through its own fault, and partly through the grindingly tough factors of fuel costs, changing consumer expectations, and too many wickedly smart competitors, that are the lot of most airlines throughout the world today

One of the shocking sets of numbers in this morning’s Qantas half year to 31 December profit result of a statutory profit of $111 million after tax is that it booked $125 million in liquidated damages from Boeing for cancelled 787 Dreamliners in the same period.
Crippled Dreamliner 787 program keeps Qantas in black | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2013/02/21/crippled-dreamliner-program-keeps-qantas-in-black/)


Upgrades to A330 fleet promised as Qantas flies higher


Read more: Upgrades to A330 fleet promised as Qantas flies higher (http://www.smh.com.au/business/upgrades-to-a330-fleet-promised-as-qantas-flies-higher-20130221-2eu8f.html#ixzz2LXunSLnH)

AFTER taking a hit to its core domestic earnings in the first half, Qantas has promised to step up its battle with Virgin Australia by upgrading its fleet of large A330s and ordering new planes.
Although the capacity glut in the domestic market has eased recently, the plans to upgrade Qantas' fleet of A330s used on Australia's key transcontinental route threatens to spark a strong response from Virgin.



Qantas Profit Rises on Boeing Cash and Long-Haul Revival - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-20/qantas-first-half-profit-rises-on-boeing-contract-cash.html)

Qantas reduced losses at its international unit (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/QAN:AU) by 65 percent after dropping unprofitable routes and retiring older planes amid a battle with Middle East (http://topics.bloomberg.com/middle-east/) and Asian carriers on long-haul services. An alliance with Emirates on overseas flights, due to begin April 1, will be a “killer combination,” Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

[ejectx3]

"Thanks to engaging our people"...

Cloud...,, cuckoo ...... Land

[33 Disengage]

You have to feel sorry for the little bloke. With the pesky unions, the deported Senator and that planetalking bloke continually banging on about cost transfer between QF international and Jetstar, it's been hard to get the financials where he would prefer them this half.

[One Eye Redundant]

An alliance with Emirates on overseas flights, due to begin April 1, will be a “killer combination,” Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

I can only see it as being the "killer" of Qantas.

[Jabawocky]

The secret is not all that secret really.

Don't piss off your loyal customers.

Don't pass off your loyal staff.

Don't piss off your loyal retired staff willing to travel.

All these folk prefer flying with someone else now.

If I see it, as a business traveller, and I see high yield first class customers feeling the same way, surely there are large numbers of revenue dollars leaking uncontrollably.

The only way we go back is when there is no better option.

The board can complain about anything else all day. But to make a change they need to focus on doing the things that make customers loyal, and don't mind paying. Qantas has taught it's customers to object to paying for a quality product and subsequently not having one to offer.

[fishers.ghost]

BREAKING NEWS: Shamrock Global Leprechaun Airways (SGLA) today presented its half yearly results including a record profit of EUR 444 million. The airline group’s CEO, Paddy-Rónán O’Khluless was ecstatic about the profit. In a statement with the assistance of a Gaelic interpreter, Mr O’Khluess attributed the fantastic results to “the organic transformation of the airline and moving forward in a volatile ever changing high fuel price sector including the blessing of our beloved High Priestess Siobana’lah’E from the Dublin Loopontology Grand Church and our Universal Brand Promotion Commodores, our airline has achieved wonderful successes. We well and truly have reached the Parabolic Inflexion Mid-Way Congruent Parallel Point in our turnaround strategy to become profitable for our international operations”. Just a few weeks back, SGLA’s Executive Team and CEO painted a rather bleak and dire outlook and had profit warnings issued, so this sudden profit announcement has surprised some. The airline also announced savings were achieved by closing down all of its engineering facilities (EUR 97 million), cancelling most of its remaining international services (EUR 71 million), compensation from an aircraft manufacturer for delayed aircraft deliveries (EUR 100 million) and laying off 7000 staff (EUR 176 million). This all adds up to EUR 444 million same as the profit level. The CEO also announced his enthusiasm for SGLA’s new partnership with Tah-Bully Global Domination Universal Airways based in the new global world hub in Kabul with a focus city in Baghdad. SGLA will soon operate its last two remaining services to the new hub in favour of a comprehensive code-share agreement with Tah-Bully thus becoming just a virtual airline. Share prices for SGLA currently sit at EUR 0.09 at close of trade.





Not mine but from an Aviation commentator

[Stalins ugly Brother]

There is a Dilbert cartoon showing a character getting his KPI targets. The caption goes: "great! This is written permission to ignore the rest of my job!"

65% market share. That's what Alan's KPI is based on, not profitability.

[MooseKnuckle]

Qantas moved 34.5% of international pax in 2002, 28.3% in 2007 and 18.1% in 2012. (BITRE stats)

JQ moved 3.1% of international pax in 2007, and 8.1% in 2012. (BITRE stats)

From that, qantas international is dying quickly, even if you factor in JQ's international flying in/out of Australia.

The ensuing 5 years will be turbulent for QF no matter what angle you look at it from. The clear losers, apart from shareholders (majority being our banks/super funds), will be staff.

Historically speaking, it'll be engineering and catering who will be hit.

I think engineering will continue to be 'consolidated' right up to the expiry date of the five year transformation plan. So if you're an engineer, you're the biggest loser and are walking targets.

Other dept's will decrease in size from normal attrition and mitigation measures in place.

Will QF mainline fly internationally for the next 50 years? Yes, only to close-in hubs with partners or subsidiaries flying customers the rest of the way (and no doubt laughing all the way to the bank afterward - time will tell). Our domestic business remains super robust! Thank you resources industry and FF program.

[Romulus]

Market share, whilst generally one of my least preferred metrics, is important in the airline business (and any other capital intensive business) because the fixed costs are very high compared to the variable costs.

Even allowing for fuel as a key variable cost (i.e. if you don't fly you don't pay for terribly much fuel - although there will be some for maintenance and other activities so it's not quite zero) the fixed costs associated with aircraft leasing and general organisational structure (salaries must be paid regardless of whether you fly or not etc, there may be some overtime savings by ceasing certain ops) far outweigh the variable ones. Thus market share becomes important as you have the greatest share to spread those essentially fixed costs across.

Of course, it isn't the ONLY metric but it is a key one as at 65% level there is a marked change in profitability. Over 65% and the improvement is gradual, but drop below 65% and your profitability drops very quickly as you spread those costs across a lower market share base.

[Livs Hairdresser]

Hi Romulus,
I could be wrong but I thought that the 65% related to maximising revenue not profitability. So to use an extreme example, QF could double it's capacity, maintain 65% market share but now with 40% load factors and lose money hand over fist. Which it appears is exactly what they've done.

[Romulus]

Hi Romulus,
I could be wrong but I thought that the 65% related to maximising revenue not profitability. So to use an extreme example, QF could double it's capacity, maintain 65% market share but now with 40% load factors and lose money hand over fist. Which it appears is exactly what they've done.

Yes, that's kind of the point. In a capital intensive business revenue is directly linked to profit more than in a variable based business.

You are also correct with your example. Sometimes you have to be prepared to take that kind of action to protect your position as a direct threat to your competitors. Using "Game Theory" as the dominant market player you run your business in the manner you so desire but if a junior player starts getting "uppity" you put them in their place by showing them clearly where you draw the line. The junior then has a choice - do they have the pockets to fight you or do they want to"be sensible" and accept the 35% or whatever market share as the basis for their business model and maximise their profit at that point.

If the junior believes the dominant player is weak or unable to maintain the fight for some reason (capital constraint, cash flow issues, whatever) then they will logically attack and seek to become the dominant player. If the junior believes the dominant is willing to run a major fight they will analyse how to maximise profit at the position they see the dominant player "tolerating".

So Qantas sacrifices a cool $100M or so now in order to preserve their dominant market position well into the future, and that is worth plenty more than $100M.

Virgin have made some interesting moves aligning multiple players to confront Qantas, the decision they are undoubtedly wrestling with now is how hard do they push the boundaries, i.e. how much money do THEY burn before they admit Qantas has deeper pockets etc and tactfully withdraw from that battle and focus on making the best profit they can with their lower cost base.

That is why incumbents, with their higher cost base, have not been overrun by LCCs utilising their lower cost bases to move up into premium service. VB may be doing so, but they simply don't have the pockets to fight QF to the extent they need to in order to usurp the dominant position. Hence a lot of JB's signalling to the market that he is focussing on yield, profitability, premium customers etc. He is (in my opinion) gaming the industry himself and signalling that he is looking to OPTIMISE his profit by taking that 35% position and owning it with his better cost base.

The level of maturity required to optimise profit rather than maximise it is significant. Human beings are conditioned to maximise, the bigger the number the better, obviously, surely that goes without saying. But it doesn't. If you can take a position that optimises your profit then you have a world class business. You are protected far better than a maximised business, you are less susceptible to shocks like 9/11 or SARS etc.

[ALAEA Fed Sec]

. Qantas moved 34.5% of international pax in 2002, 28.3% in 2007 and 18.1% in 2012. (BITRE stats)

JQ moved 3.1% of international pax in 2007, and 8.1% in 2012. (BITRE stats)

From that, qantas international is dying quickly, even if you factor in JQ's international flying in/out of Australia.



Don't get sucked in by the Qantas propaganda. Traffic numbers have increased steadily over the past 10 years. Market share may be different but I would suggest that the Qantas group passenger numbers today is higher than 10 years ago. Qantas may not be dying quickly, they may be growing slowly.

[Twin Beech]

The old saw about market share is the famous B School case study of the last buggy whip manufacturer ending up with 100% of the market. But that's not aviation:a growing and steadily more affluent population means a larger number of travellers. A market share that is shrinking slower than the total market is expanding is still a growth story, despite Cassandra's* wailings to the contrary.

Cassandra, in this case,= Joyce.

In one late night paragraph I am alluding to B school, classical studies and algebra 101. Kindly pardon my enduring desire to be one of those smartest ****ers in the room. :p

[600ft-lb]

Qantas director quits amid Italian probe (http://www.smh.com.au/business/qantas-director-quits-amid-italian-probe-20130225-2f0d9.html)

Qantas non-executive director Corinne Namblard has resigned from the airline's board after being caught up in an investigation into a corruption scandal in Italy.

Ms Namblard denies any wrongdoing in relation to the investigation into the privatisation of Siena airport, but was stepping down in the best interests of Qantas and herself while it continued, the airline said thus morning.

Qantas chairman Leigh Clifford said Ms Namblard resigned "in the best interests of both Qantas and herself".

"Ms Namblard was especially concerned to ensure that the continuing media focus on the current Italian proceedings did not distract Qantas from implementing its strategic imperatives nor detract from the achievements that Qantas has had in meeting the challenges to its business. The Qantas board appreciates those sentiments," Mr Clifford said in a statement to the ASX this morning.


Qantas director caught-up in Italian corruption case | News | Business Spectator (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-director-caught-up-in-Italian-corruption-ca-pd20130220-54JRV?opendocument&src=rss)

Qantas had reportedly been unaware of the investigation. But Ms Namblard said the headhunter who recruited her to become a Qantas director had been aware of it, the AFR added.

Something here seems odd.

[ampclamp]

The presumption of innocence must be upheld.
She has done the right thing.
Regardless of whether she has anything to answer for, any news relating to the case would have commenced... "Qantas director Ms Namblard..."That is no longer the case and effectively defuses anything that may arise.
It loses much of its newsworthiness now she is no longer on the board of a major company and the problem is now her's alone.

[Romulus]

The old saw about market share is the famous B School case study of the last buggy whip manufacturer ending up with 100% of the market. But that's not aviation:a growing and steadily more affluent population means a larger number of travellers. A market share that is shrinking slower than the total market is expanding is still a growth story, despite Cassandra's* wailings to the contrary.

in the short term yes. In the longer term as your competition senses that you can't defend yourself and your position then they get more ferocious about going after you. Absolute numbers are growing, and if Qantas don't capture them to the same percentage then the opposition will and that will embolden them to go even harder.

[AEROMEDIC]

Something here seems odd.

Well, yes, if the Qantas board stated, they didn't know about it, it is certainly odd.
The director concerned had a duty to report the the board "post haste" and perhaps it qualifies for ASX reporting as well.

"Never say what you can't defend and say what you like if you can get away with it" Anon

[TIMA9X]

Originally Posted by Romulus "in the short term yes. In the longer term as your competition senses that you can't defend yourself and your position then they get more ferocious about going after you. Absolute numbers are growing, and if Qantas don't capture them to the same percentage then the opposition will and that will embolden them to go even harder." Well said! SIA (amongst others) will be working overtime to gain market share, not sure Qantas is in any position to fight back fleet wise in the short term.


https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-l3bczobmYNQ/URUpIRWOxdI/AAAAAAAAAhs/KdPHtdOa1lA/s917/001-SQdecline-2.JPG?gl=US

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-oFPRZ1assSs/URUo1vDesvI/AAAAAAAAAhk/wRhiZ8RYApg/s912/001-SQ-decline-2013.JPG?gl=US

Lessons from the past says it is easier to dismantle but much harder to rebuild, I think the Q CEO has dug a huge hole for himself, (a mining industry sized hole.)



Qantas cost figures remain under question | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2013/02/25/qantas-cost-figures-remain-under-question/)

A quizzical look at some of the figures in the Qantas first half financials

The view that Qantas has massaged the financial performance of its loss making full service international operations to suit an ideological agenda to marginalise if not exit a large part of them while favouring Jetstar by making it carry some of its costs have been around for a long time.

They have also been denied for a long time by management.

However the implication of a review of its first half FY13 results, which were released last Thursday, is that some of the costings are possibly wrong, and being ‘managed’ to a schedule by which a much reduced international division could be deemed to have become viable by 2015, by which time there won’t be nearly as much of it left as there is today.
By 2015 Qantas might only be flying from Sydney and Melbourne to Dubai, where its passengers will transfer to Emirates flights for onward connections, while in the rest of Australia, under the Qantas-Emirates partnership, Qantas will expect whatever customers it still has over this cities to fly all the way on Emirates, not to mention those who already do so from Sydney or Melbourne anyhowand

The other key international operations will be to Singapore and Hong Kong, for mid-trip connections to the Jetstar franchise connections deeper into Asia, and to Los Angeles and Dallas Fort Worth, and to Santiago and Johannesburg.
Qantas has actively encouraged most of these predictions already, with group CEO Alan Joyce last Thursday talking up the Qantas/Jetstar connections in Asia, which begged the unasked question as to why Qantas customers would bother when the real choice would be going all the way on Jetstar, or going all the way on Singapore Airlines or Cathay Pacific flights with a vast number of full service onward connections on SilkAir or the soon to be rebranded Cathay Dragon.
This is what the ‘ginger group’ notes on the first half FY13 figures says, in part:
1. How did Qantas International achieve a 9.1% ($254M) reduction in operating costs (including fuel) in 6 months compared to 1H12, noting that Qantas Group operating costs increased by 2.9%? With regard to fuel costs, the 1H13 results state that the fuel cost was $2181M in both 1H13 and 1H12 indicating that fuel costs have been unchanged. The reduction in operating costs must therefore have come about in other expense categories. Given there has been no significant change in Qantas International’s workforce, the reduction cannot be attributed to a large drop in employment.
2. How can one part of the business incur substantial cost increases and yet another part of the business incur a very sizeable cost reduction? Qantas Domestic costs increased by 6.4% including fuel (which is a non-issue) but Qantas International’s costs decreased by 9.1%. Both these businesses employ very similar types of resources (engineering, maintenance, labour) and use similar inputs. Aircraft operating lease rentals and depreciation are not included in these costfigures so there is possible explanation there.
3. Qantas International Segment Revenue and Other income decreased by 3.5%. With a reduction in revenue, there is less scope to improve the underlying EBIT. To achieve a smaller loss in the context of declining revenue requires an even greater reduction in operating costs. And this is exactly what has happened if one is to believe the 1H13 results. If one was trying to engineer a turn-around in Qantas International, one would need to “produce” a very large cost reduction in the face of declining revenue.
4. Perhaps a reduction in Qantas International capacity is the answer? According to the 1H13 results, Qantas International reduced capacity by 7%. However this capacity reduction cannot translate into anywhere near a 7% reduction in operating costs as many of Qantas costs are fixed costs that cannot be varied in the short run (eg labour).
Whilst some of the cost reduction can be attributable to reduced capacity such as reduced fuel costs, perhaps it is in the order of 3-4%, nowhere near the 9% cost reduction purported in the 1H13 results.
In summary, the 9.1% reduction in Qantas International’s operating costs seems incredulous in light of (i) an increase in Qantas Group costs and a sizable increase in Qantas Domestic Costs (ii) relatively constant fuel prices and a strong Australian dollar (reducing the AUD cost of fuel) and (iii) declining revenue.
What is interesting is that none of the commentary I’ve seen has focused on Qantas International’s “amazing” cost reduction achievement. Nor did Alan Joyce point to it at all. If the cost reduction were the real thing, they would be singing out loud and clear about it.

[600ft-lb]

Well, yes, if the Qantas board stated, they didn't know about it, it is certainly odd.
The director concerned had a duty to report the the board "post haste" and perhaps it qualifies for ASX reporting as well.


I understand presumption of innocence etc and I know it is a trial by media.

She obviously doesn't want attention brought to the Qantas brand which is very admirable given the presumption.

She obviously decided to resign in the best interests of the brand because, it wasn't unknown to her that she was under an investigation, going off the previous newspaper articles - it was only a problem once the story was broken by a newspaper.

[Romulus]

Here's the other airline reporting

Virgin scarred by battle with Qantas (http://www.smh.com.au/business/earnings-season/virgin-scarred-by-battle-with-qantas-20130226-2f2r7.html)

[AEROMEDIC]

True, and commendable.

But, once known to the director concerned, there is no choice but to report to the board who report to shareholders and the ASX

[indamiddle]

With the cancellation of Syd/sin/fra from 16 April flight attendants have been offered another VCR package, memo states excess crew so needs to be "right sized". Estimated at 220 f/a's. how many excess pilots will this result in from the 747 tech crew?
Another reduction in costs for international when new figures get published at the AGM in 6 months time.
Have pilots ever been offered VCR (voluntary compulsory retrenchment)?
Please excuse spelling/grammar, bourbons going down very well.

[Mstr Caution]

SEEK - Job Details (http://m.seek.com.au/Job/23921416)

Indamiddle

Expensive QAL Flight Attendants offered VR whilst "Cabin Crew Australia" are being recruited for International Operations.

An exercise in cost reduction for the International Business in "terminal decline".

MC.

[AEROMEDIC]

The ad is looking for someone with Arabic language skills.

Perhaps there aren't enough in the current group of flight attendants to serve what will be an increasing number of Arabic customers as a result of the EK/QF alliance.
Does anyone know if there is a need?

Is Qantas offering VR to anyone with Arabic language skills?

[Mstr Caution]

Perhaps there aren't enough in the current group of flight attendants to serve what will be an increasing number of Arabic customers as a result of the EK/QF alliance.

EK Flight Attendants don't need to speak Arabic. The only requirement is fluent English.

One would argue, why would you offer redundancies to French, German or Italian speaking QF Flight Attendants when AJ's plan is to fly these punters to/from Dubai/Australia legs on Qantas metal to connect with EK's network to Europe.

[Visual Procedures]

MC,

EK has requirement for, and there generally is, an Arabic speaker on every flight, unless operationally inconvenient that is ;)

[Mstr Caution]

https://www.emiratesgroupcareers.com/english/Careers_Overview/cabin_crew/requirements.aspx

I'm referencing their website.

[OneDotLow]

Great to see the CP Intl come out today and announce that QF see no need for redundancies, either compulsory or voluntary, based in the next 3 yr flying plan. It also doesn't take into account any 'potential' aircraft purchases "slated for 2016 and beyond".

Maybe now some of the "more senior" folks who were hanging on for a redundancy payout might consider retirement? :ugh:

And before I get my head bitten off... yes! I have flown with guys who were holding out for redundancy payouts in lieu of straight up retirement.

[V-Jet]

Maybe now some of the "more senior" folks who were hanging on for a redundancy payout might consider retirement?

Is that why he said it??

So far the massive expansion plans set in stone for Qantas International have left me somewhat underwhelmed. He is (as they all are) being paid to dispense Kool Aid. I reckon they've got pretty good at it too:)

[OneDotLow]

The reality is that the more senior guys wouldn't be targeted for voluntary redundancy I'm thinking. There would be plenty of S/Os who would be cheaper to pay out and who would consider it.

[Conductor]

V-Jet is spot on. The writer of this 'blog' has used the standard speak of 'do not forsee' which means diddly. He is most definitely dispensing the Kool Aid.

Just think about it for a second:

* there is already a surplus of around 300 pilots
* Mainline continues to either lose flying or maintain the status quo from month to month
* the 744 is down over 1000 hours just for the next 2 months.
* 380 now 2-pilot DXB - LHR - DXB so less work for S/Os

Exactly how does all this fit together with DTs statement? Even if all the 744 guys are assigned leave for the next 2 to 3 years there will still be a surplus of several hundred. Why would QF carry such a surplus?

If anyone can provide a sensible, plausible scenario for the next few years where QF actually needs all the pilots it has now (less retirements) I would be glad to hear it. I really would - my job depends on it.

[OneDotLow]

Conductor,

I have a healthy level of cynicism for anything that comes from above, however I do believe that we will see the 787 around 2016. I think management also need to see that happen, hence they are carrying a "surplus" (it doesn't hurt that they are removing AL and LSL from their liabilities in bulk). If they wanted to make guys redundant, they would have done so over the last few years, or at the very least given them notice. It is an expensive business, and carrying the number of excess crew that we have is not cheap. They are not doing it to be nice and they are not doing it because its the more expensive way to run the business. If there was a dollar in it, we'd all be out on the street right now.

I also believe, for whatever reasons I'm not sure, that the "spin cycle" has started to opinion the other way. JQ has been a little on the nose of late, and they have been pumping the "great success" of the EK alliance. I suspect we will see more of this and the QF Intl books will look good in a few years. It will be interesting to see the responses over the orange fence when this happens.

My career also depends on it! :8

[73to91]

Qantas’ business not yet back on track


Friday, 3 May 2013


Qantas’ current business transformation strategy will have “cost impacts
within the second half of FY13,” according to the airline’s chief executive Alan Joyce.

The transference of hub operations from Singapore to Dubai comes at an
expense of AU$50 million.

“We’ve always made it clear that long term gain can’t be achieved without the short term cost of transition,” Mr Joyce said.

In August 2011 Qantas Airways identified that its international business was a single source of problems and set about creating a five year strategy in an attempt to turn things around.

The long term goal was to return business back to profitability by 2014.

However, international operations continued to struggle (http://www.etravelblackboard.com/article/132784/qantas-international-business-struggling-ate-2012), through to the second half of 2012.

“Last year we made an operating loss during that period,” Mr Joyce said.

“We are [now] seeing aggressive short term responses from our competitors.”

Qantas also has a one-off operating cost of AU$25 million associated with
resolving enterprise agreement back pay issues with their long haul pilots.

On the domestic front, Qantas “does not expect any improvement” during the second half of 2013.

“We still face a tough environment with a high degree of capacity growth in the market, pushing down yields and profitability,” Mr Joyce said.

Despite being unable to provide any profit guidance, Qantas Airways remains confident that they can deliver sustainable returns to shareholders.

“We are well aware that, in aviation, you can expect the unexpected, and we continue to have the flexibility to adapt to any changing circumstances,” Mr Joyce said.
Qantas’ business not yet back on track - Aviation News - etravelblackboard.com (http://www.etravelblackboard.com/article/142834/qantas8217-business-not-yet-back-on-track)

[standard unit]

Joyce says-

“We are [now] seeing aggressive short term responses from our competitors.”

Like investing in new aircraft, growing routes and expanding.

Short term indeed..........:ugh:

[ferris]

I just used a booking engine to buy a flight from the Middle East to oz (something I regularly do), and lo and behold, the CHEAPEST FLIGHT WAS QANTAS.....by a long margin.

Something is afoot.

[DrPepz]

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-profit-forecasts-slashed-after-alan-joyces-warning/story-e6frg95x-1226636330463)

Qantas profit forecasts slashed after Alan Joyce's warning
BY:STEVE CREEDY From: The Australian May 07, 2013 12:00AM
Increase Text Size
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Print
DEUTSCHE Bank has slashed its full-year earnings estimate for Qantas by more than 60 per cent after chief executive Alan Joyce revealed last week it was doing it tough in the current fiscal half.

Analysts Cameron McDonald and Entcho Raykovski revised their prediction that the carrier would scrape over the line with an underlying second-half pre-tax profit of $8.8 million to a loss of $135.8m.

That would mean a bigger deficit than last year's equivalent second-half loss of $107m and lowers Deutsche's full-year underlying profit-before-tax forecast from $232m to $87m.

The analysts expect the half to be challenging as aggressive competition from rival carriers erodes yields in both domestic and international markets.

"In our view the pressure on yield will compete away a large portion of the unit costs benefits we previously expected Qantas to achieve in 2H1," they said, adding that it also reflected $25m in back pay the airline had agreed to pay international pilots.


The Deutsche analysts acknowledged that the cut was a "significant downward adjustment" but believed it appropriately reflected the yield headwinds facing the company.

However, they expected the market to focus on the 2014 financial year when benefits from the international transformation program would roll through and the domestic capacity war eased, and kept their share price target unchanged at $1.70 while retaining their "hold" recommendation.

In an otherwise upbeat speech, Joyce told a conference last week that the airline was looking for an improvement next financial year from initiatives introduced across the business.

But he warned there would be cost impacts in the traditionally weaker second half, including the $25m in pilot back-pay and the $50m cost of transferring its hub from Singapore to Dubai.

"We've always made it clear that long-term gain can't be achieved without the short-term cost of transition," he said.

Joyce predicted the airline next financial year would reap the benefits of moves to modernise operations, maximise partnerships, reduce costs and upgrade its product and service.

In the international business, he said major reforms continued and management would look for opportunities to reduce costs and improve productivity.

The domestic Qantas business remained strong but faced a tough environment with a high degree of capacity growth on the market, which was pushing down yields and profitability.

"While we do not expect any improvement this half, capacity growth is alleviating, which will lead to a healthier capacity position in FY14," he said.

Jetstar was progressing as it built scale in Asia.

Separately, Air Pacific has tapped senior executive Aubrey Swift as acting chief executive while the search continues for a permanent replacement for departing boss David Pflieger.

This is bizzare. Now Alan Joyce says that the initial surge in bookings following the EK partnership has tapered off, competitors like CX and SQ have responded aggressively?

Seeing as unprofitable routes like:

SINFRA (highly unprofitable)
BKKLHR
HKGLHR
PERHKG
ADLSIN
AKLLAX
SYDEZE
SINBOM
One PERSIN

have been cut, why isn't QF any more profitable :rolleyes:

[Ghost_Rider737]

How do you grow an airline by selling seats on another ?

The bean counters sure know how to f#%k things up !

[my oleo is extended]

Part 2;
"Although the airline has not been able to return a dividend to shareholders in years and the companies performance has slipped some 90% since Alan Joyce came onboard, the outlook for executive bonuses remains very strong, with forecasts predicting executive bonuses (which have remained steady and progressive) will in fact climb higher as management find new and innovative methods to ensure that their personal executive net wealth grows at an exponential rate in line with best corporate greed practise. It is further envisaged that investment in aircraft type, infrastructure, systems and a return of value to investors will take place in the second half of 2026".

[TIMA9X]

This is bizzare. Now Alan Joyce says that the initial surge in bookings following the EK partnership has tapered off, competitors like CX and SQ have responded aggressively?
Who knows?
All I know, things are changing daily, a lot going on at the moment for both airline groups.


Sir Richard and JB, interview, interesting perspective, for those who missed it.
.
kGch3K-uz8o

[hotnhigh]

TIMA9x,
Any chance you can create video copy from 4.55-5.23 and post it express to AJ.
Perhaps title it "The winning strategy."

[TIMA9X]

interesting aside from Tim Clark
Emirates-Qantas Deal Not A “Reaction” To Competition – Clark


Emirates president Tim Clark said the airlines were not influenced by Etihad's partnership with Virgin Australia.

The recent partnership between Dubai’s Emirates Airlines and Australia’s Qantas was not a reaction to competition and materialised purely because of mutual gains, according to Tim Clark, president of Emirates.
Speaking at the Arabian Travel Market (ATM) event in Dubai, Clark said that the decision to partner with the Australian carrier was not influenced by Etihad’s partnership with Virgin Australia that was announced in 2010.

“That agreement was done two years ago and was very different… Our partnership is not a reaction, it’s simple maths where it’s a win-win for both the parties,” he said. “[For us,] it’s not a question of what Etihad was doing or not,” he added.
Emirates and Qantas first announced the 10-year partnership in September last year, but received final approval for a five-year alliance from Australia’s competition regulator in March.

“The process of getting approval was not easy. We had to work hard to demonstrate that the move would also benefit consumers,” said Clark.
The arrangement includes changing Qantas’ hub from Singapore to Dubai for European flights, and the two airlines will offer a combined total of 98 flights a week between Australia and Dubai.

Industry experts say the impact of the relationship is already being felt in Dubai, with hotels reporting a rise in Australian tourists.
Emirates-Qantas Deal Not A "Reaction" To Competition - Clark » Gulf Business (http://gulfbusiness.com/2013/05/emirates-qantas/#.UYo49cr4GXp)

.

[TIMA9X]

why isn't QF any more profitableI think J*'s performance in Asia is showing signs of distress (now published figures are available since the Feb 21 announcement) hence my growing feeling the focus returning to Q mainline.
The only trouble with this, Q mainline has been concentrating on the new Emirates deal which has nothing to do with Asia.... go figure.. we were told at the time 3K Asia was an amazing business.
Jetstar misses another opportunity in Singapore as it reduces focus on China market | CAPA - Centre for Aviation (http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/jetstar-squanders-another-opportunity-in-singapore-as-it-reduces-focus-on-china-market-109149)

Mainland China has accounted for the entire decrease in North Asia capacity, which is rather surprising given the importance Jetstar Asia previously placed on the Chinese market. Jetstar Asia is currently offering only about 5,000 weekly return seats in the Singapore-China market compared to about 8,000 weekly seats one year ago.https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vSnn3YXFdoY/UZCndd3N8_I/AAAAAAAAAps/9is-0fOr_BI/s811/jstar-china-marketshare.JPG?gl=US
interesting
A stock market disclosure that AirAsia X is bringing forward its Australia expansion plans (http://www.smh.com.au/business/jetstar-faces-new-challenge-on-key-routes-20130512-2jg4a.html) poses a much sharper attack on the Jetstar franchise in Asia than a mere doubling of capacity to Sydney and Melbourne sooner than originally expected. Jetstar in pincer attack from AirAsia X, Scoot | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2013/05/13/jetstar-coming-under-pincer-attack-from-airasia-x-scoot/)
I am pretty sure now the market has completely changed since this thread started back in Feb, in fact changed so much I fear both Jetstar and Q mainline are now under huge pressure.
It's good to revisit what AJ said live on ABC news 24 back in Feb followed by The Business the same day.

xGPxJcczbZc

BT85szJ5nt0


It is also important to note SQ's profit figures in decline over the past three years. Will be interesting to see SQ's next results by comparison to see if Scoot has cannibalised SQ's core business.
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-oFPRZ1assSs/URUo1vDesvI/AAAAAAAAAhk/wRhiZ8RYApg/s912/001-SQ-decline-2013.JPG?gl=US
.
It appears now, more than ever, there is a growing argument for Qantas mainline to get as a priority whatever new metal that is on order for the Qantas group, to go to the LH operations to build on what Bruce Buchanan had planned back in July 2011 for Jetstar. I am convinced that the Qantas brand is the way forward for Asia, not Jetstar which appears to be floundering amongst its rival LCC models in Asia.

Jetstar's new North Asia focus leaves room for Qantas Singapore expansion to Europe and India | CAPA - Centre for Aviation (http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/jetstars-new-north-asia-focus-leaves-room-for-qantas-singapore-expansion-to-europe-and-india-55440)

Jetstar's new North Asia focus leaves room for Qantas Singapore expansion to Europe and India

Let's hope so, although India would be questionable under the Qantas branding in my view. Joyce did say recently
Joyce predicted the airline next financial year would reap the benefits of moves to modernise operations, maximise partnerships, reduce costs and upgrade its product and service.
Suggests a keener "focus" back towards Qantas mainline? :confused:

[Keg]

I recall Sunfish saying a while back to watch for the arrival of former EK execs into Qantas as a sign of a potential takeover by stealth.

Lo and behold:

QANTAS'S high-profile head of corporate and government affairs, Olivia Wirth, will move away from government lobbying and take on marketing role in what the airline has labelled a "strategic refresh".

Ms Wirth, whose partner is Australian Workers' Union national secretary Paul Howes, will take on a newly-created role of group executive brand, marketing and corporate affairs. The role incorporates her existing responsibilities for communications and adds responsibility of the Qantas brand.

Emirates executive Andrew Parker will join Qantas in the newly-created role of group executive, government and international affairs.

Qantas also said it would consolidate its market intelligence and customer insight function, currently spread between different business units, into its existing strategy division.

The airline said the changes would implemented by July and would mean the position of its current executive general manager of marketing, Lewis Pullen, would no longer exist and he would leave the company.

[Cactusjack]

Livvy has a new role in QF. She is now boss lady of Group Executive Brand, so she still stays at QF.
I enjoyed the photo in today's Australian, there has always been something about her that puts my flag at full mast!

[V-Jet]

Keg - I had _exactly_ the same thoughts. Thanks for digging up the reference.

A moron of that calibre shouldnt be allowed near anything more complicated than a mouse trap - let alone an airline. Makes me sick contributing to her $1m+ benefits salary...

[hotnhigh]

There's sweet fa for mainline career progression but at least Olivia got some. What's the salary now? $1M?
Maybe the next step will be CEO?
We've got the six million dollar man now, perhaps wonder woman could do a better job.

[IsDon]

My German Shepherd could do a better job.

And he works for Pal!

[TIMA9X]

Travellers wanting to fly economy from Australia to London return had been able to escape paying $610 in fuel surcharges by redeeming their frequent-flyer points on an Emirates flight rather than Qantas. They could also pay $290 less for a return economy with Emirates to an Asian destination.
Qantas cannot raise the total cost of a ticket considerably higher than its rivals because it would make it uncompetitive. But it can try to recoup the cost of fuel by imposing fuel surcharges on passengers who are using frequent-flyer points to pay for their fare.

Read more: Qantas closes frequent-flyer loophole (http://www.smh.com.au/business/qantas-closes-frequentflyer-loophole-20130614-2o887.html#ixzz2W9PDNEgb)

A step in the right direction, what took them so long? For me, not a well thought out plan at the time of forming the alliance, must have hit the bottom line for Q since April..

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-6m5TIvFtLas/Ubp6OzVBVDI/AAAAAAAAAsA/Z9xSTplk0qE/s645/Qantas%252014-6-13-3-month-chart.JPG

[OneDotLow]

Look at that share price. I think it may be time to announce another alliance with Emirates!? :ugh:

[Animalclub]

What's the betting that QF will fly only to/from the East and not to Dubai/Europe shortly?

[Capt Kremin]

Or maybe just to Dubai, until everyone realizes that they may as well just book on Emirates. Not going to London, considering the history involved, would be a major loss of face for senior management.

[hotnhigh]

would be a major loss of face for senior management

No it wont. Just throw another party celebrating what a great job they are doing in their own minds.
Invite clingons from both sides of politics, the big end of town and media personalities from all major networks and fire out the free champers and grange and the problem solved.
"The management team have been developing strategies to compete in the difficult global aviation market...blah,blah, blah. Inefficient work practices from the unions blah, blah, blah"

And lets not forget to have the hangar party on a friday night so that they can close down the first 3 domestic bays so it will completely stuff the domestic network for the evening, but at least the management team and clingons wont be put off the grange, by aircraft noise from aircraft that were suppose to be using gate 1, but are now holding abeam taxiway f for another bay to become available.

[hotnhigh]

At $1.19/share has the market already factored in the latest profit, errr loss?

[Sunfish]

Livvy reminds me of the narcissist I wasted Two years of my life on. I would hate to work for her. I would imagine that the marketing group will now get a "clean out" of anyone she regards as a threat to her omnipotence.

The happy couple will now get "A List" status in Sydeny(sic). Expect Howe to get a safe Labor seat next election. Livvy will knife Joyce a few years from now.

[LeadSled]

Folks,
A microcosm of what is going on in Qantas, and who makes what decisions.

An offspring of mine is not just a frequent flyer, but a very frequent flyer. If there was such a thing, he would be a "double platinum with diamond borders and inset black opals" Oneworld frequent flyer, I have now idea how much his tickets are worth every year, but it is well into 6 figures. The travel budget he controls is many times that.

On a recent trip BA, LON to BKK, onwards with QF to SYD, booked months in advance, he was bumped in BKK???

He wound up coming the last leg with Emirates, some hours later.

And, guess what, they lost all his bags!! They all turned up in Sydney three days later??

As long as Qantas longhaul does not have a fuel efficient fleet, it cannot make money with the available yields, even with a 100% load factor, and many sectors from observation, are close to that.

Tootle pip!!

[booglaboy]

2 weeks to go til Qf reports on the financial year. No profit( or loss)guidance. What r re guesses and probability of dividends?

[dragon man]

Small profit,times are tough, fuel very expensive due to weak $Aus,no dividend however international has turned the corner due to the difficult decisions taken by management and hence we have awarded ourselves massive bonuses once again. Sound familiar?

[Shark Patrol]

It must be really tough for them this year, because after years of bagging LH International, this time they have to paint International as being "saved" by the tie-up with Emirates. To do otherwise would be to admit failure, and we know that this lot never fail!

So how will the buckets of money be divvied up? Jetscum, of course, will continue to be the Golden Child, but since Domestic is knee-deep in an ongoing EBA, my tip is that the former cash-cow will suddenly be drying up.

[BD1959]

Partnership transition costs. Jetstar HK and JP start-up costs - these will be some of the excuses for this current year.

Forward projections will be trimmed due to the strengthening dollar and increased competition to the EK/QF "partnership" from others who had managed to trim their own costs better in an ever more volatile industry.

All of the above have already been dropped into the pond, just need to wait for the ripples to hit the final report.

But wait: there will be a glittering new project to look at and wonder about ... maybe RedQ reappearing at SIN to tap that premium market - something to throw a lazy $50m at to distract the audience and from which the plug will be pulled after a suitable period.

It's all become soooo predictable.

Regards,

BD

[ejectx3]

That 155 million in shares that went to execs might put a dent into any profit

[TIMA9X]

It must be really tough for them this year, because after years of bagging LH International, this time they have to paint International as being "saved" by the tie-up with Emirates. To do otherwise would be to admit failure, and we know that this lot never fail! I agree and this (below) may become a hot potato in the not too distant future. The management were indeed advised last April.... I think this reporting season will be interesting, many questions will be raised and will need some straight answers for a change.
Dubai Airport repairs to hit Qantas flights
Qantas faces a reduction in flights to Dubai during a three-month period next year due to urgent repairs to the runways at the world's second-busiest international airport.
It has emerged that Dubai Airport told Qantas in late April that it proposed halving the number of flights it could operate there while major construction work was carried out on two runways.
The runway closures also threaten to reduce the number of flights that Qantas' alliance partner, Emirates, can operate between its home base and Australia. Between them, Qantas and Emirates control more than half of the market share of passengers who fly between Australia and Europe.
With it showing the strain from an influx of large aircraft such as A380s, the airport is carrying out extensive repair work from next May, including laying 180,000 tonnes of asphalt on its northern runway. This period takes in the busy European summer.
Advertisement
Qantas has been lobbying Dubai officials to retain all of its 28 weekly landing slots during construction, and senior executives are in the city this week to again press the point.

Read more: Dubai Airport repairs to hit Qantas flights (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/dubai-airport-repairs-to-hit-qantas-flights-20130813-2ruhq.html#ixzz2c1NIEjFg)

[Bad Hat Harry]

Im guessing that Emirates will be shielded from the runway repairs.No doubt they will step into the breach for QF pax."Fly with Emirates and be protected from delays in DXB" will be the SMS sent to all QF FFs travelling to Europe

[Visual Procedures]

Im guessing that Emirates will be shielded from the runway repairs

Last report said Emirates has to cancel 5350+ movements over the 3 month period or 60 per day.

Hardly what one would call shielded.

As with QF there is no direction from management on the issue at all yet, indicating that as reported, Dubai Airport hasn't got it's **** together and finalized any numbers.

At the wash-ups, EK management are quoted in the last few months as saying that there will categorically not be any LWOP offered next year. We all know how true something is once its passed from a manager's lips so bring on LWOP next summer :ok:

[Lookleft]

If the runway works are going to have such a big impact could QF just switch to using Singapore as a stopover to Europe?

[Animalclub]

Now, now, don't bring logic to this thread!!!

[004wercras]

I wonder if with what has been occurring over the past week around Asian markets there could be potential holes in the little mans pockets to come in the next few months?

None of the experts saw India's debt bubble coming. Sound familiar? | Comment is free | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/26/india-debt-bubble-boom-bust-pattern)

And;

Yahoo! Finance (http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/another-asian-financial-crisis-coming-231902812.html)

[Shark Patrol]

Jetstar India! Golden opportunity!

[TIMA9X]

Interesting when joining the dots on this thread since Feb
Qantas posts nominal profit, dividend drought continues

Jetstar, domestic plus international plus offshore franchises, suffered a 33% drop in UEBIT to $138 million which was attributable to increased Domestic competition and start up costs in relation to Jetstar Hong Kong, which is yet to start, and Jetstar Japan.
Qantas posts nominal profit, dividend drought continues | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2013/08/29/qantas-posts-nominal-profit-dividend-drought-continues/)I wonder if with what has been occurring over the past week around Asian markets there could be potential holes in the little mans pockets to come in the next few months?
Seems the little guy has sown up his pockets keeping the money within the Mothership for the last six months. :rolleyes:

hajMF2FOMJw

[Transition Layer]

The market has responded positively. QAN shares up almost 10% :ok:

[gordonfvckingramsay]

The market has responded positively. QAN shares up almost 10% http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

Presumably because the "market" is ignorant as to the true destiny of QANTAS?

[dragon man]

Alan Joice would tell you a poo sandwhich tasted good and was beneficial to your health.

[Clipped]

$5m profit!

Should be just enough to cover AJ's wage bill plus annual bonus.

As for the other 32,999?

[ferris]

Taken from the filed summary "a $134million (positive) change in accounting estimates, applied in the second half, for the recognition of passenger revenue...blah blah" Amazing how much money can come or go with the flick of a pen, and what story creative accounting will let you tell.

[lc_461]

Interesting, not one line regarding the performance or JQ International...

[Cunning_Stunt]

As has been posted by others previously, it was a deliberate decision to split QF International and Domestic. It was also patently clear that it was a deliberate decision to NOT do the same with JQ. To clearly hide the miserable performance of some, if not all of its international operations. The results will be forever hidden however and wherever the Management can. AJ will NOT allow JQ to be seen as other than a roaring success.

[TIMA9X]

The results will be forever hidden however and wherever the Management can. AJ will NOT allow JQ to be seen as other than a roaring success. I agree but believe Jetstar Asia may reveal problems in this thinking from management that may be hard to hide, I'm thinking HK & Japan. I found this report interesting (reading between the lines) from ABC The Business last night for those who missed it.

Kee04sprKSw

Herd it all before "the positives starting to bear fruit"

[fishers.ghost]

The compensation from Boeing paid to Qantas plus the sale of Qantas Defence services added to profit from Frequent Flyers programme generated the miniscule profit.Elsewhere:freight down $45m.Jetstar down $65.Qantas domestic down $95.The plan is working a treat.Bonuses all round for Exco

[Bad Hat Harry]

Qantas profit hit by price battle | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/qantas-profit-hit-by-price-battle/story-fnda1bsz-1226706289474)

[Mstr Caution]

Has AJ conveniently forgotten to thank Mainline pilots for taking voluntary leave of absence.

I guess there would be 120 pilots on leave of absence at an average pay rate of $200k pa (conservatively).

That's saving the airline about $24M a year and keeping a pool of available and experienced pilots for if/when the airline expands again.

However AJ choose to focus on the once off back pay.

MC.

[Condition 1]

Not only that, but he conveniently forgot to mention back pay was FWA ordered, an that only about half the period was paid. Meaning pilots, for the second time, have had a wage freeze. Add that figure saved to the interest earned on the holdup to payment of the back pay, and the AJ announced cost would be substantially less.

[Ngineer]

not one line regarding the performance or JQ International

Or Jetstar Asia and Jetstar Domestic. Odd, isn't it.

Strange that the QF business is dissected in the ASX media release (ie; Int, Dom, Loyalty, Freight) and Jetstar is not (Dom, Int, Jetstar Asia).

[spelling_nazi]

The only thing mentioned in AJ's interview is "jetstar is a phenomenal success story".

http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/businessday/full-interview-qantas-ceo-alan-joyce-4710101.html

So just believe him.

[Jackneville]

Smoke and mirrors, yet the institutional investors continue to 'buy'
it, wtf.

[virginexcess]

Vastly different take on AJ's spin here.

Qantas takes a financial flight of fancy on accounting winds (http://www.theage.com.au/business/qantas-takes-a-financial-flight-of-fancy-on-accounting-winds-20130901-2syto.html)

[FYSTI]

Thank Virgin, for posterity
Qantas takes a financial flight of fancy on accounting winds

Date September 2, 2013 http://images.smh.com.au/2009/10/24/810850/michael-west-_127x127.jpg (http://www.theage.com.au/business/by/Michael-West)
Michael West (http://www.theage.com.au/business/by/Michael-West)

Business columnist

View more articles from Michael West (http://www.theage.com.au/business/by/Michael-West)
Email Michael ([email protected])

There are many ways to skin a cat, but there are many more ways to present a profit result. Take Qantas, for instance, a company that has displayed admirable flair over the years in the presentation of its financial accounts.
In declaring ''underlying profit'' of $192 million last week - to borrow crudely from Charles Kingsley - it killed this cat by choking it with cream. The market gulped down that cream, though, too. Qantas shares shot up 14 per cent on the day.

Among the myriad filings to the ASX - press releases, investor presentations and supplemental filings - a dogged pursuer will eventually unearth the Qantas Airways statutory accounts.


These are the ones mandated by legally binding accounting standards approved by the Australian Accounting Standards Board, signed off by Parliament (the standards are laid before Parliament so that Parliament can knock them back if they're wrong). These accounts are also identical to the International Financial Reporting Standards used all around the world except in the US (where they are permitted but not required).


It is here that we find that Qantas Airways' profit before tax was $17 million. This carried an $11 million tax charge; that is, an effective tax rate of 65 per cent.


In its presentation materials, Qantas preferred to focus on its own special measure for evaluating profit, its ''underlying'' profit before tax of $192 million. This $192 million was largely achieved thanks to a change in accounting policy that brought $134 million forward into the reporting period.


It got there by slicing off $86 million for asset impairments, $118 million for redundancies and restructuring, a $24 million write-down in intangibles - and by adding back a $30 million profit on the sale of an investment.
Without the sale of that investment, it would have shown a pre-tax loss of $13 million.


The Qantas balance sheet is every bit as vivacious as its profit-and-loss statement. The ''current ratio'' is negative: that is, current liabilities, at $6.37 billion, exceed current assets, at $5.25 billion. The current ratio is a good indicator there might be a cash squeeze afoot, that money may need to be raised.

Let's not panic just yet though. Qantas has $2.8 billion cash on hand. It has received revenue in advance of $3 billion - more than its cash on hand. It is a good thing that people pay before they fly. If you add the cash and current receivables (which should be collected over the next 12 months) you get $4.3 billion in readies.


Current payables (those due to be paid in the next 12 months) amount to $1.9 billion. In terms of available cash therefore, as per the balance sheet for the next 12 months, Qantas is $2.4 billion ahead. Again, this is funded 125 per cent by revenues received in advance.


The revenue in advance, however, is a current liability. If you subtract this from the available $2.4 billion, it becomes clear that Qantas needs to keep collecting all its money in advance.


On the face of it, Qantas' debt-to-equity ratio looks OK. And Qantas gets brownie points for showing the effect of capitalising its operating leases - even though this information didn't manage to scrape into the annual report.


But wait - the ratio is debt: (debt + equity). Debt is 36 per cent, equity 64 per cent. When they bring the off-balance sheet leases on, it becomes 39 per cent debt: equity 61 per cent. Actually, the debt represents 57 per cent of equity, and when you add in the off-balance sheet stuff, debt is 85.5 per cent of equity. Phew, no wonder Qantas prefers its own ratios. They are far more glamorous.


But wait again. What is debt? Let's see, it includes only the interest-bearing debt shown on the balance sheet. That covers only $853 million of current liabilities. The $1.9 billion current payable and the $3 billion of revenue in advance are not counted as debt.


If just those two amounts are added in, the preferred ratio would become 59:41 - and 63:37 with the off-balance sheet added in. If you were playing about with a plain old debt-to-equity ratio, you could get to 140 per cent, or roughly 170 per cent when adding in the off-balance-sheet stuff.
So, there is much that lies under the ''underlying profit'' and often a good deal more underlying the statutory disclosures too.

[schlong hauler]

A very enlightening report. The real debt and the real state of the Airline is laid out for all to see.
Can one of the more financially literate readers explain what off balance sheet debt is? Is it like my wife's credit card being in her name yet I have to pay for it and yet I don't have the debt allocated to me.

[blow.n.gasket]

explain what off balance sheet debt is?

That would be the cost so far, for the Jetstar experiment, would it not!

[Romulus]

Can one of the more financially literate readers explain what off balance sheet debt is? Is it like my wife's credit card being in her name yet I have to pay for it and yet I don't have the debt allocated to me.

Off-Balance-Sheet Financing Definition | Investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/obsf.asp)

Operating leases for aircraft, GSE, would fall into this category. They are an operating expense, the actual asset is owned by another.

So, in the spirit of the thing, if your wife purchases items such a lingerie that you benefit from and you pay a price (not necessarily $$$) for then perhaps yes, the credit card debt is off your balance sheet!

I'm sure the Enron boys would be able to manage it for you somehow!!

[TIMA9X]

Well well, who would of thought... shaping up to be another interesting AGM

Competition tsar Rod Sims is ''concerned'' by comments made by Qantas that could be interpreted as a signal to end a fierce price war with its competitor, Virgin Australia, that has been a boon for travellers.
Sims said it was ''fair to say'' the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is ''concerned at the comments and we are assessing them''.
On Thursday Qantas boss Alan Joyce told shareholders he was moderating capacity growth this year to between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent in the domestic market, from 8 per cent growth in the past year. He then said at a media conference if Virgin reduced its capacity to zero: ''I'd be quite happy to make sure that Qantas adds zero per cent levels into the market because we are focused on maximising our 65 per cent capacity position.''
Joyce has previously said: ''We will match capacity in the marketplace to determine that optimising profit position. Quite happy if capacity is zero, quite happy to - less happy - to add 10 per cent to maintain the position that we have. But we maintain complete flexibility in what we can do in capacity.''
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But the comments have come on the ACCC's radar, so too comments made in March by the boss of Qantas' domestic business, Lyell Strambi, says Sims.
Strambi warned he would add two planes for each one added by Virgin. ''We've made it very clear we'll be sensible in terms of capacity. But if a competitor puts one [plane] in, we'll put two in as a group. We're very clear, we're not making any apologies for it. That's the game and people need to understand the game.''
The banks are subject to price-signalling legislation, but the aviation industry is not. This makes it difficult for the ACCC to make much progress in some of its investigations. For this reason it would not be a surprise if the ACCC had a quiet word in the ear of a new government to consider the merits of widening the legislation to include other industries when it conducts its root-and-branch inquiry into competition in Australia.
But, for now, the ACCC will no doubt look at Qantas' 65 per cent line-in-the-sand comments in relation to market share to ensure there is no funny business going on when it comes to competition. It won't be the first time. It is understood the ACCC looked at the 65 per cent market share about 12 months ago and found no issue.
Qantas says it takes its obligations under the Competition and Consumer Act very seriously. ''We've been very clear about our intent to maintain our profit-maximising 65 per cent share of the domestic market, which puts us in the position to offer the best service to customers. Our recent financial results confirm the merits of that strategy,'' a spokesman said.
He said Qantas would add as much or as little capacity as it needed to maintain that share. ''How the rest of the market reacts to that is up to them,'' he said.
Airlines have a history of price wars. The fiercest was in 2004 when extra capacity poured into the market when Qantas launched low-cost carrier Jetstar.
The latest price war has been particularly vicious, culminating in Virgin posting a loss of $98 million in the year to June 30, partly due to the savage price competition in the domestic market. Its domestic operations lost $44 million, compared with a profit of $93 million previously.
Qantas managed to report an overall underlying profit before tax for the year of $192 million but its domestic earnings before interest and tax fell 21 per cent to $365 million, down $100 million from last year, while Jetstar's profit fell 32 per cent to $138 million.
Virgin boss John Borghetti said he found the comments by Joyce ''a little curious''. He said his decision to increase capacity was based on the group's overall strategy to reposition the airline and move into different markets rather than chase market share.
Qantas is hell-bent on keeping its 65 per cent market share. It is based on a belief that the airline industry works on the ''S-Curve'' phenomenon, which measures capacity share against revenue share. The theory is there is a certain profit optimisation point where if you add more capacity you get little in the way of increased revenue, but if you lose capacity, revenue falls off a cliff.
Virgin isn't perturbed or listening to Qantas. After hearing the comments, Borghetti told his investors to expect a capacity rise of 3 to 4 per cent this year, preferring to continue with the group's strategy.

Read more: Watchdog queries Qantas comments (http://www.smh.com.au/business/watchdog-queries-qantas-comments-20130902-2t10z.html#ixzz2djSolI99)

[Stalins ugly Brother]

Qantas is hell-bent on keeping its 65 per cent market share.

Thats because someones bonuses are probably based on maintaining 65% market share.